Notional Defined Contribution Scheme Research Articles

Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) Schemes: a pension system alternative

This article aims to discuss the main concepts related to notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes and to analyze the experiences of Sweden, Italy, Latvia, Poland and Norway. The methodology is based on a literature review. The main result was that the extent of NDC as a pension system alternative depends on the degree of closeness to the generic scheme. It is recommended to analyze NDC as an alternative for pension system reforms considering its capacity to control structural deficits. As a limitation, it was not analyzed some possible social impacts of NDC introduction. This article is original because encompasses theoretical and practical aspects of NDC schemes. It is expected that this research can contribute to assist public officials in decision-making about reforms in pension systems.

Retirement Ages by Socio-Economic Class

We are interested in defining the optimal retirement age by socio-economic class, given a Defined Benefit and a Notional Defined Contribution scheme. We firstly implement a utilitarian framework. Depending on the risk aversion coefficients and individual time preference factors, the results differ significantly. Since this approach is individualistic, with no consensus in the existing literature on what values these parameters should take, it is not suitable to be used by policy makers. Therefore, we provide an alternative based on two accounts. We look for the retirement age allowing the accumulated value, at the last age with survivors, of the pensions received under each system, held in one account, to be close in value to the accumulated amount should the actuarially fair pension be paid, representing the second account. Our approach results in setting a lower retirement age for lower socio-economic classes and a higher retirement age for wealthier individuals.

Does the pension system’s income statement really matter? A proposal for an NDC scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits

This paper develops an accounting model for monitoring the solvency of a notional defined contribution (NDC) pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. Using the annual report of the Swedish pension system as a benchmark, the “Swedish” actuarial balance is extended by adding an income statement fully explaining the reasons behind the changes in the system’s solvency by type of benefit. In line with the reference model, assets and liabilities are measured at present value at each reporting date, and in each period, included as income or expenses on the Income statement. This accounting framework integrates both contributory and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of the disability contingency and the redistribution through minimum pensions. Apart from Sweden, this proposal could be especially interesting for improving the reporting of public pensions in countries such as Poland, Italy, Latvia and Norway.

Distributional effects of social security reforms: The case of France

AbstractThis paper assesses the impact of two social security reforms using a calibrated, dynamic life cycle model. It quantifies the long‐run distributional impact of two sets of reforms in France: (1) the 2013 reform of Prime Minister Ayrault, which modified the parameters of a defined benefit (DB) plan, and (2) a hypothetical reform that changes the system to a notional defined contribution (NDC) plan, similar to that in Italy. First, on aggregate welfare, the Ayrault reform and the hypothetical switch to NDC yield contrasting results. The Ayrault reform improves aggregate welfare, which is not the case for the NDC reform. Welfare comparisons are made with respect to the “benchmark economy,” where increases in life expectancy occur and are dealt with only through a higher contribution rate. Second, both reforms yield unequal distributions of welfare changes, with low‐skill workers on the losing end. Under the Ayrault reform, low‐skill workers delay retirement by two years, to age 62. Under NDC reform, pensions for low‐skill workers fall substantially as inequalities during the work life translate directly into inequalities in pensions. The switch to an NDC scheme leads to a more unequal society in terms of asset and welfare distribution.

Does the Pension System’s Income Statement Really Matter? A Proposal for An NDC Scheme with Disability and Minimum Pension Benefits

This paper develops a full accounting model for monitoring the solvency of a notional defined contribution (NDC) pension scheme with disability and minimum pension benefits. Using the annual report of the Swedish pension system as a benchmark (TSPS, 2019), we extend the “Swedish” actuarial balance developed by Perez-Salamero et al. (2017) by adding an income statement which fully explains the reasons behind the changes in the system’s solvency by type of benefit. In line with the reference model, assets and liabilities are measured at present value at each reporting date, and changes in present value are reported in each period as income or expenses and are included on the income statement. Our proposed model is a step forward because it, also, incorporates the changes for disability pensions, the value of change in the discount rate and the explicit recognition of non-contributory rights (NCRs) into the Income statement. This accounting framework integrates both contributory and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of the disability contingency and the redistribution through minimum pensions. The paper contains a numerical example consisting of an income statement for a (fictional) already-functioning system to illustrate the main differences between the Swedish NDC scheme and our model. Mathematical details are presented in a comprehensive technical appendix.

The Notional Defined Contribution Pension Scheme and the German ‘Point System’: A Comparison

AbstractThis paper examines the analytical properties of the German ‘points-based’ pension system. These properties are compared with those of a canonical Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) pension scheme. The paper identifies the circumstances under which the German ‘points-based’ system would mimic a Swedish-type NDC scheme and verifies to what extent the German ‘points-based’ scheme ensures uniformity of individual rates of return for some hypothetical careers. Finally, the paper proposes a set of new possible adjustment rules able to increase similarity between the German point system and the NDC scheme.

Does the NDC scheme mimic the French point system?

ABSTRACTAfter the implementation of the notional defined contribution (NDC) pension scheme in Italy and Sweden in the ‘90s, some authors argued that its design merely replicates the functioning of the points-based pension schemes already in place in France and Germany. The aim of this article is to assess the soundness of this proposition by comparing the properties of the French points-based pension system (FPS) with those of the NDC scheme, which refrains from intra-cohort redistributions by ensuring substantial uniformity of individual rates of return. In order to assess to what extent the FPS also avoids intra-cohort redistributions, we run several simulations for different career patterns. The results of the simulations show that the discretionary adjustments embedded in the FPS are responsible for random, regressive redistributions. Finally, the article identifies the theoretical ‘equivalence condition’ showing that full correspondence between the two schemes would require replacing the discretionary mechanisms of the FPS with an automatic adjustment of point values.

Social Insurance Accounting for a Notional Defined Contribution Scheme Combining Retirement and Long-Term Care Benefits

This paper develops a social insurance accounting model for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme combining retirement and long-term care (LTC) contingencies. The procedure relies on standard double-entry bookkeeping and enables us to compile a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) following a framework equivalent to an open group approach. This methodology is suitable for reporting the system’s solvency status and can show periodical changes in the system’s financial position by means of an income statement. The information underpinning the actuarial valuation is based on events and transactions that are verifiable at the valuation date, without considering expected future trends. The paper also contains an illustrative example to make it easier for policymakers to understand the main advantages and difficulties of our proposal. The policy conclusions stress the need to properly report social insurance benefits to enhance transparency and sustainability and to improve decision-making because it is in the public interest to do so.

A Social Insurance Accounting for a Notional Defined Contribution Scheme Combining Retirement and Long-Term Care Benefits

This paper develops a social insurance accounting model for a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme combining retirement and long-term care (LTC) contingencies. The procedure relies on standard double-entry bookkeeping and enables us to compile a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet (ABS) following a framework equivalent to an open group approach. This methodology is suitable for reporting the system’s solvency status and can show periodical changes in the system’s financial position by means of an income statement. The information underpinning the actuarial valuation is based on events and transactions that are verifiable at the valuation date, without considering expected future trends. The paper also contains an illustrative example to make it easier for policymakers to understand the main advantages and difficulties of our proposal. The policy conclusions stress the need to properly report social insurance benefits to enhance transparency and sustainability and to improve decision-making because it is in the public interest to do so.

SOME NOTES ON THE REDISTRIBUTION INHERENT IN THE U.S. PUBLIC PENSION SYSTEM

This paper shows that the U.S. Old‐Age Insurance (OAI) does not eliminate all the regressive redistribution characterizing earnings‐related schemes. The benchmark against which OAI is tested is the one‐to‐one contribution‐benefit rule of the Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) scheme. The paper suggests that by redesigning OAI according to the NDC scheme workers would perceive the higher contributions needed to finance current obligations not as a tax but as an increase in mandatory savings rewarded with the pay‐as‐you‐go interest rate and a stream of pension annuities more generous than that it would be possible to pay at the current contribution rate. (JEL H55, J26)

An Ndc Approach to Helping Pensioners Cope with the Cost of Long-Term Care

The aim of this paper is to analyse whether it would be possible to provide retirement and long-term care benefits using the same unfunded notional defined contribution scheme. We extend the multi-state overlapping generations model developed by Pla-Porcel et al. (2016) to include two new features: a long-term care benefit graded according to the annuitant's degree of disability and a minimum pension benefit for both contingencies. This brings the model closer to the reality of social insurance and enhances its political attractiveness. The paper contains a numerical example to show how the model functions and focuses especially on the mortality rates for dependent persons, the inception rates from a healthy state to (any) disability state, and the probabilities of transition between one health status and another. The numerical example proves that the model works reasonably well and makes it clear that it has practical implications that could be of interest to policy makers. It also provides us with some useful values regarding the impact of introducing a minimum pension on the system's financial equilibrium and reinforces the fact that biometric assumptions need to be estimated accurately before any decision is made to put the model into practice.

Do notional defined contribution schemes prolong working life? Evidence from the 1994 Swedish pension reform

Abstract This paper investigates whether the Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) scheme prolongs working life. The evidence from the 1994 Swedish pension reform shows a gender and socio-economic gradient in the labor supply responses to phasing in NDC. While the reform exerted a large and significant positive effect on the average retirement age among highly educated and skilled, it had little or negative effect on those with low level of human capital. And the overall effect is more profound among older men, compared to older women. These findings imply that the aggregate impact of NDC may only be positive if the average level of older workers’ education and skills is high, whereas it may be moderate (or even adverse) if the majority of the older workers are less educated and engage in low-skill jobs. This highlights the importance of incorporating the gender and socio-economic aspects into the evaluation of how a multi-pillar pension scheme, such as NDC, may increase the average working life expectancy.

A 'Swedish' Actuarial Balance Sheet for a Notional Defined Contribution Pension Scheme with Disability and Retirement Benefits

This paper proposes a “Swedish” type actuarial balance sheet for a notional defined contribution scheme embedding disability insurance within the retirement pension system. The underlying framework supporting the actuarial balance relies on a multistate overlapping generations model that includes the so-called survivor dividend and a minimum pension benefit for both contingencies. The proposed ABS splits the system into two parts: the actuarial part (pure NDC) and the redistributive part, which includes the assets and liabilities originating from non-contributory rights. The paper also contains a numerical example that sheds light on the real applicability of our proposal and confirms that the model works reasonably well. The results obtained make sense and provide us with some useful values regarding the impact of introducing a minimum pension on the system's financial equilibrium. The model has practical implications that could be of interest to policy makers, given that it integrates actuarial and social aspects of public pensions and discloses the real cost of redistribution through minimum pensions.

Designing an Alternative Public Pension Scheme: A Korean Case Study

The trends of ageing population and slow economic growth have become a major concern for public pension schemes with the defined benefit (DB) type. To mitigate the impact of this trend and secure long-term financial sustainability, several countries have recently adopted notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes. In this paper, we show how to apply an NDC scheme to the public pension system of Korea, arguably the fastest ageing country. In particular, we create a new pension system by combining the current Korean pension scheme and an NDC. Through simulations it is shown that the proposed scheme can reduce the financial instability caused by the changes in demographic and economic factors, while retaining the income redistribution component. We further consider applying a German-type automatic balancing mechanism to the proposed scheme, by using the average income to determine the return rate of the fund, to make it sustainable in the long term.

Notional defined contribution pension schemes: why does only Sweden distribute the survivor dividend?

The aim of this paper is to analyse the role of the survivor dividend in notional defined contribution (NDC) pension schemes. At present, this feature can only be found in the Swedish defined contribution scheme. We develop a model that endorses the idea that the survivor dividend has a strong basis for enabling the NDC scheme to achieve financial equilibrium and that not including the dividend is a non-transparent way of compensating for increases in longevity and/or legacy costs from old pension systems. We also find that the average effect of the dividend remains unchanged for any constant annual rate of population growth, that contributors who reach retirement age always get a higher return than the scheme does, and that population growth enables cohorts with more years of contributions to benefit to a greater extent from the dividend effect.

Actuarial Fairness When Longevity Increases: An Evaluation of the Italian Pension System

This study analyses the actuarial characteristics of the Italian pension system throughout its transition from defined benefit (DB) to notional defined contribution (NDC) rules, taking into account expected increasing longevity. Computations rely on ad hoc projected cohort mortality tables based on a limit survival scenario depicted by demographic experts. Most workers retiring in the coming years, whose pension is partly computed according to DB rules, will receive more-than-actuarially fair pensions. However, the generosity of the pension system has been significantly reduced for them by a recent reform that tightened early retirement eligibility requirements. Disability benefits remain (extremely) generous when claimed before age (57) 60. Steady-state NDC pensions, due to dynamic efficiency, are less than actuarially fair. They further deviate from actuarial fairness due to the specific rules, based on historical mortality, adopted by the Italian law for computing and updating benefits while facing increasing longevity. Cohort mortality projections should be used to handle longevity changes in NDC schemes.

Which pension model holds the most promise for China: a funded defined contribution scheme, a notional defined contribution scheme or a universal social pension?

Faced with concerns about how to finance pensions for present and particularly future retirees, Chinese policy makers concluded that their traditional defined benefit pension scheme was not going to be sustainable. They, like pension policy makers around the world, have been looking for alternatives and have tentatively decided to go with a multi-pillar scheme that includes a major funded defined contribution pillar. We question the wisdom of that choice and explore two alternatives, one for urban workers based on the notional defined contribution (NDC) model and one for rural workers based on the universal social pension model.

The Notional Defined Contribution Model: An Assessment of the Strengths and Limitations of a New Approach to the Provision of Old Age Security

Most public old-age pension schemes around the world are based at least in part on the pay-as-you-go defined benefit (PAYGO DB) model. As these schemes have matured and the limitations of this approach have become more salient, pension experts have begun considering alternative models. The Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) model, which is also financed on a PAYGO basis, has emerged as one of the major new approaches. In the years ahead it may be combined with or possibly displace the funded defined contribution model as the major alternative to the PAYGO DB model. Drawing primarily on evidence from NDC schemes in 6 countries (Sweden, Italy, Poland, Latvia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Mongolia), the goal of this paper is to describe the NDC model and to review its strengths and limitations relative to the major alternatives. A four pillar pension scheme is proposed to illustrate how a NDC pillar might be integrated into a multi-pillar scheme. One strength (relative to the PAYGO DB model) is that it makes a more explicit link between contributions and eventual pension benefits; however, the flip-side of this strength is that it provides less adequate pension benefits to low-wage workers due to the lack of income redistribution. The fiscal burden of the transition is less than that associated with a shift to a funded defined contribution scheme, but NDC schemes lack many of the potential economic benefits associated with funded defined contribution schemes, such as contributing to economic growth. The NDC model may become common among the nations in the process of making the transition from centrally planned to market economies, among Western European nations, and among developing nations. It is less likely to be adopted in nations that currently have fully or partially privatized schemes in place. In the United States, the model will probably get relatively little attention in the debate over Social Security reform, at least for the foreseeable future. However, it is a model that would put workers with low wages and irregular work histories at less risk than the funded defined contribution alternative being actively considered in current debates about Social Security reform in the United States.

Notional Defined Contribution Accounts

Abstract Notional defined contribution (NDC) accounts represent a new model for social security reform that so far has been adopted in seven countries. While NDC schemes remain public, they call for the individual accounts favored by neoliberal policy analysts. NDC schemes would address many of the demographic and fiscal problems threatening pension systems but, depending on the country, could do so in a way that puts low‐paid workers and women at greater risk than do the schemes being replaced. NDC systems are often the result of a compromise between different interest groups, typically between neoliberal economic elites on the right and labor unions or pensioners’ organizations on the left.

Reality and Challenges of Pension Schemes in Tunisia

This article tries to establish whether the statutory system of pensions based on the pay-as-you-go principle is financially defensible in the context of an ageing population. Our study uses the case of Tunisia. The hypothesis that the population is ageing has been confirmed by a prospective study of the Tunisian population to 2050. A simulation of the pension schemes reveals a deficit which is growing at an exponential rate and which must inevitably jeopardize the financial viability of the schemes. Pension reform is thus unavoidable. After studying a number of experiences from other countries, which we describe, we propose a switch to notional defined-contribution schemes and/or organized in tiers.