Notion Of Predictability Research Articles

The qualitative embedded case study method: Exploring and refining gerontological concepts via qualitative research with older people

This article argues that a tailored version of the qualitative embedded case study method can be used to build strong conceptual and inclusive insights from qualitative research with older people, and, in doing so, advance theoretical scholarship in social and critical gerontology. Gerontology has often been described as “data-rich and theory-poor” (Birren & Bengtson, 1988). It is a field which draws heavily on post-positivist traditions of quantitative research and notions of prediction, generalization, and statistical significance. While critical qualitative approaches have gained ground through interdisciplinary scholarship in the social sciences and humanities, few attempts have been made to articulate the relationship between research questions designed to understand older people's experiences and concept- or theory-building in gerontology. This piece makes a case for engaging with the theoretical/methodological interface by drawing on an evolving approach entitled the qualitative embedded case study, as it was used in three qualitative studies on the concepts of frailty, (im)mobility, and precarity. It suggests this is an evolving approach with the potential to develop conceptually sound, meaningful research from older people's experiences, including diverse, underrepresented, and marginalized groups, and to draw on these insights to direct change.

Una mirada por parte de la Corte Suprema al artículo 1558 inciso 1º del Código Civil: Corte Suprema, 29 de enero de 2018, Rol Nº 19182-2017, “Josefina Escárate Lorca y otros con Inmobiliaria Clínica San Carlos S.A. y otro”

Se exponen las reflexiones que la Corte Suprema sostuvo, con ocasión del examen de un caso de responsabilidad civil médica, sobre la noción de previsibilidad aludida en el inciso 1º del artículo 1558 del Código Civil. Se pretende, en suma, dilucidar qué es lo que el máximo tribunal entiende que debe ser previsible y, seguidamente, qué rol juega la previsibilidad en la estructura de la responsabilidad contractual.

Ethical and social implications of approaching death prediction in humans - when the biology of ageing meets existential issues

BackgroundThe discovery of biomarkers of ageing has led to the development of predictors of impending natural death and has paved the way for personalised estimation of the risk of death in the general population. This study intends to identify the ethical resources available to approach the idea of a long-lasting dying process and consider the perspective of death prediction. The reflection on human mortality is necessary but not sufficient to face this issue. Knowledge about death anticipation in clinical contexts allows for a better understanding of it. Still, the very notion of prediction and its implications must be clarified. This study outlines in a prospective way issues that call for further investigation in the various fields concerned: ethical, psychological, medical and social.MethodsThe study is based on an interdisciplinary approach, a combination of philosophy, clinical psychology, medicine, demography, biology and actuarial science.ResultsThe present study proposes an understanding of death prediction based on its distinction with the relationship to human mortality and death anticipation, and on the analogy with the implications of genetic testing performed in pre-symptomatic stages of a disease. It leads to the identification of a multi-layered issue, including the individual and personal relationship to death prediction, the potential medical uses of biomarkers of ageing, the social and economic implications of the latter, especially in regard to the way longevity risk is perceived.ConclusionsThe present study work strives to propose a first sketch of what the implications of death prediction as such could be - from an individual, medical and social point of view. Both with anti-ageing medicine and the transhumanist quest for immortality, research on biomarkers of ageing brings back to the forefront crucial ethical matters: should we, as human beings, keep ignoring certain things, primarily the moment of our death, be it an estimation of it? If such knowledge was available, who should be informed about it and how such information should be given? Is it a knowledge that could be socially shared?

Striving to be Separate: The Jewish Struggle for Predictability in Casablanca

This article closely observes various survival strategies employed by the tiny Jewish minority in Casablanca aimed at fortifying their notion of predictability; i.e., the ability to foresee how interactions with the vast Muslim majority will unfold. Predictability is essential in the face of the imminent demise of the Jewish community. Jews' main strategy to achieve this goal is to constitute spaces of encounter where they believe that they can conceal intimate and embarrassing cultural knowledge from Muslims. Jews seem to establish the boundaries of their "cultural intimacy" through the exclusion of Muslims. Ironically, the assumption of predictability is confirmed by the cooperation of Muslims—a co-operation that ipso facto includes Muslims within the realm of Jewish cultural intimacy. Moreover, the behaviors involved in excluding Muslims are part of the intimate and embarrassing cultural knowledge (often seen as dangerous) that is to be concealed from Muslims. Hence, embarrassingly, Jews rely on Muslims' consenting assistance in order to separate themselves from Muslims. Muslims thus participate in the efforts of their own exclusion from Jewish spheres.

The Game of Prediction and Retrodiction: A Radical-Constructivist Perspective on the Notion of Time in Physics

The notions of prediction and retrodiction, and the role they play in the natural sciences, are discussed. These notions derive from our perception of the fundamental category of time, as an ordering scheme for our experiential world. The issue of philosophical determinism vs. human free will is examined from a perspective of radical constructivism, and contrasted with the issue of solipsism vs. shared experience; and it is argued that both philosophical determinism and solipsism may be rejected, on the same (existential, not logical) grounds. Both prediction and retrodiction are discussed, in the context of some sciences (notably, classical and quantum physics), and are shown to be realisable only to a very limited extent. Some consequences of this, for the ability of science to forecast what will happen in the future, or to infer what has happened in the past, are reviewed. It is concluded that scientific knowledge, of both the past and the future, is (and must be) constructed in the present, based on presently observed data and theoretical arguments. Hence there can be no conception of true knowledge, either of the future or of the past.

PREDICTABILITY OF TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT

This article is a generalization of the author’s experience gathered when preparing transport development forecasts in Poland over the past quarter of a century. These forecasts have proved to be less accurate when prepared using only quantitative and strictly mathematical methods, and more accurate when the change indicators have been estimated using the expert (intuitive) method. The problem of inaccuracy of economic and transport forecasts can be explained by the notion of predictability, which makes it possible to divide phenomena into those that are more difficult or easier to predict and to identify phenomena that are not predictable at all. The existence of unpredictable phenomena has its source in influencing the reality of systemic determinants and random factors that have no bearing on the timeline. Predicting the need for transport requires the use of different methods for freight transport and different methods for the transport and mobility of people. The source of changes in the volume of the transport demand are predominantly fluctuations in the intensity of production and consumption, and changes in the need to cover space and, to a lesser extent, this source is the generation of new demand through the additional supply of services and transport capacity. Owing to the increasingly comprehensive statistics from past periods it is possible to establish that the correlation between the GDP and freight traffic is much weaker than previously thought. The demand for transport and mobility of people is less dependent on economic activity, and more dependent on demographic changes, the lifestyle of the population and the preferences in choosing the means of transport.

Explanation in Linguistics

The aim of the present paper is to understand what the notions of explanation and prediction in contemporary linguistics mean, and to compare various aspects that the notion of explanation encompasses in that domain. The paper is structured around an opposition between three main styles of explanation in linguistics, which I propose to call ‘grammatical’, ‘functional’, and ‘historical’. Most of this paper is a comparison between these different styles of explanations and their relations (Sections 3, 4, 7, and 8). A second, more methodological aspect this paper seeks to clarify concerns the extent to which linguistic explanations can be viewed as predictive, rather than merely descriptive (Sections 2, 5, and 6), and the problem of whether linguistic explanations ought to be causal, rather than noncausal (Section 6). I argue that the notion of prediction is equally applicable in linguistics as in other empirical sciences. The extent to which the computational model of generative syntax can be viewed as providing a causal or psychologically realist model of language is more controversial (Sections 5–9).

Prediction During Natural Language Comprehension.

The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as well as surprisal A computational model determined entropy and surprisal for each word in 3 literary stories. Twenty-four healthy participants listened to the same 3 stories while their brain activation was measured using fMRI. Reversed speech fragments were presented as a control condition. Brain areas sensitive to entropy were left ventral premotor cortex, left middle frontal gyrus, right inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior parietal lobule, and left supplementary motor area. Areas sensitive to surprisal were left inferior temporal sulcus ("visual word form area"), bilateral superior temporal gyrus, right amygdala, bilateral anterior temporal poles, and right inferior frontal sulcus. We conclude that prediction during language comprehension can occur at several levels of processing, including at the level of word form. Our study exemplifies the power of combining computational linguistics with cognitive neuroscience, and additionally underlines the feasibility of studying continuous spoken language materials with fMRI.

Bayesian calibration, validation, and uncertainty quantification of diffuse interface models of tumor growth

The idea that one can possibly develop computational models that predict the emergence, growth, or decline of tumors in living tissue is enormously intriguing as such predictions could revolutionize medicine and bring a new paradigm into the treatment and prevention of a class of the deadliest maladies affecting humankind. But at the heart of this subject is the notion of predictability itself, the ambiguity involved in selecting and implementing effective models, and the acquisition of relevant data, all factors that contribute to the difficulty of predicting such complex events as tumor growth with quantifiable uncertainty. In this work, we attempt to lay out a framework, based on Bayesian probability, for systematically addressing the questions of Validation, the process of investigating the accuracy with which a mathematical model is able to reproduce particular physical events, and Uncertainty quantification, developing measures of the degree of confidence with which a computer model predicts particular quantities of interest. For illustrative purposes, we exercise the process using virtual data for models of tumor growth based on diffuse-interface theories of mixtures utilizing virtual data.

Human mobility models for opportunistic networks

Mobile ad hoc networks enable communications between clouds of mobile devices without the need for a preexisting infrastructure. One of their most interesting evolutions are opportunistic networks, whose goal is to also enable communication in disconnected environments, where the general absence of an end-to-end path between the sender and the receiver impairs communication when legacy MANET networking protocols are used. The key idea of OppNets is that the mobility of nodes helps the delivery of messages, because it may connect, asynchronously in time, otherwise disconnected subnetworks. This is especially true for networks whose nodes are mobile devices (e.g., smartphones and tablets) carried by human users, which is the typical OppNets scenario. In such a network where the movements of the communicating devices mirror those of their owners, finding a route between two disconnected devices implies uncovering habits in human movements and patterns in their connectivity (frequencies of meetings, average duration of a contact, etc.), and exploiting them to predict future encounters. Therefore, there is a challenge in studying human mobility, specifically in its application to OppNets research. In this article we review the state of the art in the field of human mobility analysis and present a survey of mobility models. We start by reviewing the most considerable findings regarding the nature of human movements, which we classify along the spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of mobility. We discuss the shortcomings of the existing knowledge about human movements and extend it with the notion of predictability and patterns. We then survey existing approaches to mobility modeling and fit them into a taxonomy that provides the basis for a discussion on open problems and further directions for research on modeling human mobility.

Piggery and Predictability: An Exploration of the Hog in Football’s Limelight

Piggery and Predictability: An Exploration of the Hog in Football’s Limelight

Regime prediction and predictability in nonlinear dynamical systems

Prediction and predictability properties of nonlinear dynamical systems are diagnosed and analysed empirically using nonlinear time series analysis techniques. The notion of predictability is relaxed from accurate prediction of individual trajectories to a coarse-grained view in which only probabilities of visiting certain regions of state space or regimes are forecast. The regimes and the transition probabilities between them are determined simultaneously by fitting a hidden Markov model to a time series of the system. Predictive information is then refined by building a nearest-neighbour model of the regime posterior distribution. The ideas are exemplified on the stochastically forced Lorenz system.

Predicting the Pattern of International Trade in the Neoclassical Model: As Synthesis

I propose a framework that takes a set of conceivable outcomes as the primitive and a prediction is defined by identifying a subset on the set of conceivable outcomes. This notion of predictability serves as an organizing principle for characterizing pattern of trade predictions in single economy and integrated equilibrium formulations of the neoclassical trade model. I identify allocative efficiency as the unifying subset selection criterion for the different formulations of the neoclassical trade model, ranging from Ricardo's (1817) original comparative advantage formulation to the multi-cone Heckscher-Ohlin specification with multiple countries, goods and factors.

Prediction in social science: the case of research on the human resource management-organisational performance link

Despite inroads made by critical realism against the ‘scientific method’ in social science, the latter remains strong in subject-areas like human resource management. One argument for the alleged superiority of the scientific method (i.e. its scientificity) lies in the taken-for-granted belief that it alone can formulate empirically testable predictions. Many of those who employ the scientific method are, however, confused about the way they understand and practice prediction. This paper takes as a case study empirical research on the alleged empirical association between human resource management practices and organisational performance. By unpacking the confusion surrounding the two basic notions of prediction used, it reveals what is wrong with them, why the scientific method cannot actually make accurate predictions and why, therefore, the scientific method fails to meet its own criteria for scientificity. Finally, explanation is considered in order to prevent any confusion between it and prediction and to offer what we call tendential prediction .

Prediction in Social Science

Despite inroads made by critical realism against the ‘scientific method’ in social science, the latter remains strong in subject-areas like human resource management. One argument for the alleged superiority of the scientific method (i.e. its scientificity) lies in the taken-for-granted belief that it alone can formulate empirically testable predictions. Many of those who employ the scientific method are, however, confused about the way they understand and practice prediction. This paper takes as a case study empirical research on the alleged empirical association between human resource management practices and organisational performance. By unpacking the confusion surrounding the two basic notions of prediction used, it reveals what is wrong with them, why the scientific method cannot actually make accurate predictions and why, therefore, the scientific method fails to meet its own criteria for scientificity. Finally, explanation is considered in order to prevent any confusion between it and prediction and to offer what we call tendential prediction.

The set-indexed Ito integral

We construct an Ito-type stochastic integral where the integrator is a process indexed by a semilattice of compact subsets of a fixed topological spaceT and the integrands, which are indexed by the points inT, possess a natural form of predictability. The definition of the integral involves, among other things, an Ito-type isometry defined in terms of the set-indexed quadratic variation of the integrator. The martingale property and quadratic variation for the resulting integral process are derived. In addition, employing the notion of stopping set from Ivanoff and Merzbach (1995), we construct and study a set-indexed local integral. A novel and flexible notion of predictability for set-indexed processes is defined and characterized, permitting the integration of a set-indexed integrand against a set-indexed process.

Reflection on population forecasting: from predictions to prospective analysis

The notion of predictability, central to the conventional meaning given to projection, is de-emphasized, and that of analytical credibility stressed. The usefulness of a projection is to be judged by the extent to which it contributes to decisions shaping the future. The author explores the epistemological base for this reconceptualization of the projection as an instrument of “creating” rather than “discovering” the future. To this end, he turns to the contemporary developments in the philosophy of science.

Prediction, explanation and the epistemology of future studies

This article is a contribution to the development of the epistemological foundations of Futures Studies. The article starts by presenting the conventional “covering-law” model asserting the symmetry between prediction and explanation, a model that continues to undermine the authority of Futures Studies as a discipline despite the fact that Logical Positivism, the epistemological paradigm that inspired it, is no longer dominant. Then the article outlines the fatal weaknesses of that model showing how out of its criticism emerges the prospect of a coherent and robust epistemology of prediction. Two major points are made: First that predictive argumentation is not demonstrative but merely evidential. Therefore formal logic argumentative structures of the “covering law” type are inadequate in giving a complete and accurate account of predictive argumentation and practice. If the nature of predictive arguments is evidential then the epistemology of prediction should be based not on mere formal logic but on a larger theory of argumentation. Second, the criticism illuminates the complex problem of the types of knowledge and information used in predictive arguments to build up evidence. Explicit and formalized knowledge and statistical evidence are not enough for a successful predictive procedure. Background information and personal, local and tacit knowledge play a surprisingly major role in predictive arguments and procedures and that has very important epistemological consequences.

On separating predictability and determinism

There has been a long-standing debate about the relationshipof predictability and determinism. Some have maintained that determinism impliespredictability while others have maintained that predictability implies determinism. Manyhave maintained that there are no implication relations between determinism andpredictability. This summary is, of course, somewhat oversimplified and quick at least in thesense that there are various notions of determinism and predictability at work in thephilosophical literature. In this essay I will focus on what I take to be the Laplacean visionfor determinism and predictability. While many forms of predictability areinconsistent with this vision, I argue that a suitably restricted notion of predictability,consistent with the practice of physicists, is implied by the Laplacean notion of determinism.It is argued that limitations on predictability are of an in principle nature in the Appendix.

HINSIDES FORESTILLINGEN OM DET FORUDSIGELIGE: Om at være drikkende ikke-alkoholiker blandt ikke-drikkende alkoholikere

Vibeke Steffen: Beyond the Notion of Predictability
 - on Being a Drinking Non-
 Alcoholic among Non-Drinking Alcoholics
 This article argues that anthropological fieldwork
 is betler understood as a research strategy
 than as a standard set of methods. Based
 on the author’s experience as a participantobserver
 in a treatment program for alcoholism
 in Denmark, the article describes how
 the interaction with informants and the character
 of the study to a great extent determined
 the actual research process. The meaning
 of participation became especially central as
 informants insisted on the researcher’s active
 participation in therapy. This leads to a discussion
 of the meaning of participation as a
 way of sharing experience and the importance
 of unplanned communication as a way of
 obtaining information. The kind of relationships
 that informants are prepared to share
 with us as researchers, and the kind of relationships
 that we as researchers are prepared to
 enter into with our informants, are seen as an
 ongoing process of negotiation creating the
 basic conditions for knowledge. Thus, the
 author concludes that it makes no sense to try
 to describe anthropological methods as
 techniques of data collection separate from
 the concrete research process.