Norwegian Energy System Research Articles

The Role and Impact of Rooftop Photovoltaics in the Norwegian Energy System under Different Energy Transition Pathways

This study focuses on investigating the impact and cost‐competitiveness of solar power in a highly hydropower‐driven northern energy system. The goal is to assess the role of rooftop photovoltaics (PV) in the Norwegian energy system toward 2050 under different energy transition pathways. Energy system analysis is conducted using the IFE‐TIMES‐Norway model, with an integrated detailed representation of rooftop PV based on the tilt and azimuth of existing rooftops in Norway. A thorough sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate how investment in rooftop PV varies under different system and parameter conditions and to disclose important barriers for PV in similar energy systems. The results show that when PV investments are facilitated, solar power can potentially stand for 56% of all new investments, resulting in a share of 10% of the total electricity generation. With less competition from onshore wind power and favorable investment parameters, especially lowering the demand for the rate of return, the investments in PV will be four times higher and reach their full potential in commercial and apartment buildings by 2050. Additionally, the results highlight that the cost parameter functions as a barrier to other solutions that facilitate increased PV investments, such as flexibility and energy storage.

Deep learning-based solar power forecasting model to analyze a multi-energy microgrid energy system

Multi-energy microgrids (MEM) are a new class of power grids focusing on the distributed form of generation and integrating different energy sectors. The primary idea of MEM is to increase renewable energy share in the final energy demand while maintaining the energy balance at all times. However, integrating renewable technology into the grid has some technical limitations that must be analyzed before being deployed in the real world. This study examines the impact of increasing renewable penetration and portfolio design on a multi-energy microgrid energy system from a technical standpoint. As the accuracy of the system analysis is primarily a factor of modeling accuracy, an artificial neural network-based model is trained and deployed to develop forecasts for solar power generation. The forecasting model is integrated with the EnergyPLAN simulation tool to analyze the multi-energy microgrid system regarding renewable share in primary energy consumption and import/export of energy from the primary grid. The Norwegian energy system is considered a case study, as the energy generation and consumption patterns are interesting from both renewable energy and demand contexts for a cold country. One interesting conclusion is that the portfolio and capacities of coupling components such as combined heat and power plants negatively impact renewable integration, while heat pumps positively impact renewable integration by increasing renewable energy utilization. Additionally, the photovoltaic system size has a high degree of correlation to imports and exports compared to wind generation systems.

Analysis of the impact of demand response on the Norwegian energy system

AbstractEuropean CO2 reduction goals have led to an increase in variable energy sources such as wind and solar, and consequently to an energy system that will need more flexibility in the future. In Norway, the hydropower reservoirs will enable the country to play a crucial role in European electrification by delivering flexibility to countries in Northern Europe. A further source of flexibility is demand response (DR) accumulated in residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. The paper discusses DR, load shifting, and load shedding based on the application of a stochastic TIMES model and it evaluates the role of DR in the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. The analysis shows that cost-efficient DR operation primarily comes from space heating in residential buildings. The use of DR, which is season-dependent, increases the volume of electricity trade, including electricity export and import to neighboring countries, and it smooths electricity prices. The implementation of DR in Norway leads to decreases in expected electricity price and total system cost by exporting flexible electricity and importing low price electricity. Additionally, it affects hydropower and reservoir management.

Spatial Trade-Offs in National Land-Based Wind Power Production in Times of Biodiversity and Climate Crises

AbstractEnergy generated by land-based wind power is expected to play a crucial role in the decarbonisation of the economy. However, with the looming biodiversity and nature crises, spatial allocation of wind power can no longer be considered solely a trade-off against local disamenity costs. Emphasis should also be put on wider environmental impacts, especially if these challenge the sustainability of the renewable energy transition. We suggest a modelling system for selecting among a pool of potential wind power plants (WPPs) by combining an energy system model with a GIS analysis of WPP sites and surrounding viewscapes. The modelling approach integrates monetised local disamenity and carbon sequestration costs and places constraints on areas of importance for wilderness and biodiversity (W&B). Simulating scenarios for the Norwegian energy system towards 2050, we find that the southern part of Norway is the most favourable region for wind power siting when only the energy system surplus is considered. However, when local disamenity costs (and to a lesser extent carbon costs) and W&B constraints are added successively to the scenarios, it becomes increasingly beneficial to site WPPs in the northern part of Norway. We find that the W&B constraints have the largest impact on the spatial distribution of WPPs, while the monetised costs of satisfying these constraints are relatively small. Overall, our results show that there is a trade-off between local disamenities and loss of W&B. Siting wind power plants outside the visual proximity of households has a negative impact on W&B.

The role of 4th generation district heating (4GDH) in a highly electrified hydropower dominated energy system

District heating (DH) is considered an important component in a future highly renewable European energy system. With the turn towards developing 4th generation district heating (4GDH), the integral role of district heating in fully renewable energy systems is emphasized further. Norway is a country that is expected to play a significant role in the transition of the European energy system due to its high shares of flexible hydropower in the electricity sector. While the country is moving towards electrification in all sectors and higher shares of variable renewable electricity generation, district heating could potentially decrease the need for electric generation and grid capacity expansion and increase the flexibility of the system. In this paper we investigate the role of 4GDH in a highly electrified future Norwegian energy system. A highly electrified scenario for the Norwegian energy system is constructed based on a step-by-step approach, implementing measures towards electrification and expansion of renewable electricity generation. Then, a 4GDH scenario is constructed for the purpose of analysing the role of 4GDH in a highly electrified hydropower based energy system. EnergyPLAN is used for simulation. Results show that an expansion of 4GDH will increase the total system efficiency of the Norwegian energy system. However, the positive effects are only seen in relation to the introduction of efficiency measures such as heat savings, more efficient heating solutions and integration of low-temperature excess heat. Implementation of heat savings and highly efficient heat pumps in individual based heating systems show a similar effect, but does not allow for excess heat integration. In the modelled DH scenario, the introduction of large heat storages has no influence on the operation of the energy system, due to the logic behind the EnergyPLAN model and the national energy system analysis approach chosen, and thus the effect of implementing 4GDH may be underestimated.

Balancing Europe: Can district heating affect the flexibility potential of Norwegian hydropower resources?

As Europe moves towards renewable energy, hydropower stands out as a renewable technology that can provide supply side flexibility through dispatchable electricity production. Several studies have investigated the flexibility hydropower can provide with a particular focus on the Nordic hydropower resources. Of all European countries, Norway has the largest hydropower resources and storage capacity. However, Norway also has a highly electrified heating sector, which means high electricity demand during winter when reservoirs are low. This paper uses EnergyPLAN to analyse how a shift from individual electric heating to district heating affects the flexibility the Norwegian energy system can provide to Europe. The analysis develops a 2015 reference scenario and two scenarios that introduce district heating based on biomass and heat pumps, respectively. Results show that district heating can decrease the maximum load on dammed hydropower facilities, thus freeing up capacity for potential export. Furthermore, the dammed hydropower facilities are able to balance the electricity demands in all hours of the year. However, the shift to district heating also increases forced export to drain reservoirs as domestic electricity demand is reduced. Also, the amount of import the system is able to handle is decreased under the modelled conditions.

Optimal location of renewable power

A decarbonization of the energy sector calls for large new investments in renewable energy production, and several countries stimulate renewable energy production through economic instruments, such as feed-in premiums or other kinds of subsidies. When choosing the location for increased production capacity, the producer has typically limited incentives to take fully into account the investments costs of the subsequent need for increased grid capacity. This may lead to inefficient choices of location. We explore analytically the design of feed-in premiums that secure an optimal coordinated development of the entire electricity system. We show that with binding electricity transmission constraints, feed-in premiums should differ across locations. By the use of a numerical energy system model (TIMES), we investigate the potential welfare cost of a non-coordinated development of grids and wind power production capacity in the Norwegian energy system. Our result indicates that grid investment costs can be substantially higher when the location decision is based on uniform feed-in premiums compared with geographically differentiated premiums However, the difference in the sum of grid investment cost and production cost is much more modest, as location based on uniform feed-in premiums leads to capacity increase in areas with better wind conditions.

Modeling the Power Market Impacts of Different Scenarios for the Long Term Development of the Heat Sector

Increased domestic and international electric transmission capacity, increased production of variable renewable energy (VRE), and structural changes in electricity demand imply changes in the Norwegian energy system. An increasing power export surplus as a consequence of increasing VRE investments are expected to cause lower average electricity prices, higher power price variations, and more use of electricity in thermal systems. In this study we analyse the effects of changes in the level of flexibility offered by the Norwegian heat sector under different meteorological conditions. The analysis is carried out using the Balmorel partial equilibrium model, extended to simulate the Norwegian heat and power market in great detail. Results show that in years with high power supply and low consumption, the value of VRE is greatly dependent on the load shedding capabilities in the heat market. Likewise, in a year with low power supply and high consumption, large impacts on VRE values are seen when removing the possibility of reducing electricity consumption in the heat sector. For the long term development of the Nordic energy system, ensuring high levels of flexibility in the heat sector are important in order to efficiently adapt more VRE, and hence fulfil renewable energy targets.

The impact of future energy demand on renewable energy production – Case of Norway

Projections of energy demand are an important part of analyses of policies to promote conservation, efficiency, technology implementation and renewable energy production. The development of energy demand is a key driver of the future energy system. This paper presents long-term projections of the Norwegian energy demand as a two-step methodology of first using activities and intensities to calculate a demand of energy services, and secondly use this as input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway to optimize the Norwegian energy system. Long-term energy demand projections are uncertain and the purpose of this paper is to illustrate the impact of different projections on the energy system. The results of the analyses show that decreased energy demand results in a higher renewable fraction compared to an increased demand, and the renewable energy production increases with increased energy demand. The most profitable solution to cover increased demand is to increase the use of bio energy and to implement energy efficiency measures. To increase the wind power production, an increased renewable target or higher electricity export prices have to be fulfilled, in combination with more electricity export.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system—A case study of Norway

The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier.

Market penetration analysis of hydrogen vehicles in Norwegian passenger transport towards 2050

The Norwegian energy system is characterized by high dependency on electricity, mainly hydro power. If the national targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases should be met, a substantial reduction of CO 2 emissions has to be obtained from the transport sector. This paper presents the results of the analyses of three Norwegian regions with the energy system model MARKAL during the period 2005–2050. The MARKAL models were used in connection with an infrastructure model H2INVEST. The analyses show that a transition to a hydrogen fuelled transportation sector could be feasible in the long run, and indicate that with substantial hydrogen distribution efforts, fuel cell cars can become competitive compared to other technologies both in urban (2025) and rural areas (2030). In addition, the result shows the importance of the availability of local energy resources for hydrogen production, like the advantages of location close to chemical industry or surplus of renewable electricity.

Production and use of Hydrogen – Regional Energy Systems Analysis of Oslo, Telemark and Rogaland

The transportation sector in Norway represents approximately 30 % of the CO2-emissions. In order to significantly reduce CO2-emissions, measures towards the transportation sector have to be addressed. This includes both efficiency and new vehicle fuels. The NorWays project has been aiming at providing decision support for introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier in the Norwegian energy system. Important objectives have been to analyze and evaluate scenarios, market segments as well as geographical regions for introduction of hydrogen. Regional MARKAL models were developed for the counties Oslo, Telemark and Rogaland. The MARKAL models have been used in order to analyze the entire energy system and compare hydrogen technologies to other possibilities, such as bio fuels, plug-in hybrids etc. The analysis focuses on how taxes, restrictions and energy prices have an impact on the production and use of hydrogen towards 2050. The main scenarios analyzed have been a scenario based on assumptions from the EU hydrogen roadmap project HyWays, a scenario with no taxes on transport energy and a scenario with 75 % reduction in CO2-emissions by 2050. In the HyWays scenario all cars in Rogaland and Telemark use hydrogen in 2050. In Oslo, there are no hydrogen cars in this scenario, due to more expensive hydrogen in Oslo than in the other regions. Plug-in hybrids are introduced in Oslo from 2020, and in 2050 all cars are plug-in hybrids.

Pathways to a hydrogen fuel infrastructure in Norway

Hydrogen is expected to become an integral part of the Norwegian energy system in the future, primarily as transportation fuel. The NorWays project aims at providing decision support for introduction of hydrogen in the Norwegian energy system by modelling of energy system and hydrogen infrastructure at various spatial levels. GIS-based regional hydrogen demand scenarios and fuelling station networks have been generated, considering organic growth of regional hydrogen coverage and increasing density of hydrogen users over time. A regional model optimised supply scenarios for these fuelling station networks, including choice of production technology (biomass gasification, NG SMR, electrolysis, by-product hydrogen) and delivery (pipeline, truck, and onsite schemes), including integrated hydrogen delivery networks by truck and pipeline. The impact of energy price and GHG emission constraint scenarios on hydrogen production and delivery mix and average hydrogen costs is analysed, and conclusions on the effectiveness of policy measures are drawn.

Building a hydrogen infrastructure in Norway

Hydrogen is expected to become an integral part of the Norwegian energy system in the future, primarily as a fuel for transportation. The NorWays project aims at providing decision support for introduction of hydrogen in the Norwegian energy system by modelling the energy system and hydrogen infrastructure build-up at various spatial levels. GIS-based regional hydrogen demand scenarios and hydrogen refuelling station networks have been generated, considering organic growth of regional hydrogen deployment and increasing density of hydrogen users over time. A regional model was used to optimise supply scenarios for these hydrogen refuelling station networks, including choice of production technology (biomass gasification, NG SMR, electrolysis, by-product hydrogen) and delivery (pipeline, truck, and onsite schemes) as well as integrated hydrogen delivery networks by truck and pipeline. The sensitivity to variations in energy price and GHG emission constraint scenarios on hydrogen production and delivery mix and average hydrogen costs was assessed, and conclusions on the effectiveness of policy measures were drawn.

Well-to-wheel study of passenger vehicles in the Norwegian energy system

For the evaluation of potential routes for production and application of hydrogen in a future energy system, well-to-wheel (WtW) methodologies provide a means of comparing overall impacts of technologies and fuels in a consistent and transparent manner. Such analysis provides important background information for decision makers when implementing political incentives for the conversion to more environmentally friendly energy production and consumption. In this study, a WtW approach was applied in order to evaluate the energetic and environmental impacts of introducing hydrogen in the transportation sector, in terms of energy efficiency and emissions of CO 2 and NO x , under conditions relevant for the Norwegian energy system. The hydrogen chains were compared to reference chains with conventional fuels.