Northwest European Continental Shelf Research Articles

Multi-model comparison of trends and controls of near-bed oxygen concentration on the northwest European continental shelf under climate change

Abstract. We present an analysis of the evolution of near-bed oxygen in the next century in the northwest European continental shelf in a three-member ensemble of coupled physics–biogeochemistry models. The comparison between model results helps highlight the biogeochemical mechanisms responsible for the observed deoxygenation trends and their response to climate drivers. While all models predict a decrease in near-bed oxygen proportional to climate change intensity, the response is spatially heterogeneous, with hotspots of oxygen decline (up to −1 mg L−1) developing along the Norwegian trench in the members with the most intense change, as well as areas where compensating mechanisms mitigate change. We separate the components of oxygen change associated with the warming effect on oxygen solubility from those due to the effects of changes in transport and biological processes. We find that while warming is responsible for a mostly uniform decline throughout the shelf (−0.30 mg L−1 averaged across ensemble members), changes in transport and biological processes account for the detected heterogeneity. Hotspots of deoxygenation are associated with enhanced stratification that greatly reduces vertical transport. A major change in circulation in the North Sea is responsible for the onset of one such hotspot that develops along the Norwegian trench and adjacent areas in the members characterised by intense climate change. Conversely, relatively shallow and well-mixed coastal areas like the southern North Sea, Irish Sea and English Channel experience an increase in net primary production that partially mitigates oxygen decline in all members. This work represents the first multi-model comparison addressing deoxygenation in the northwest European shelf and contributes to characterising the possible trajectories of near-bed oxygen and the processes that drive deoxygenation in this region. As our downscaled members factor in riverine inputs and small- and medium-scale circulation, which are not usually well represented in earth system models, results are relevant for the understanding of deoxygenation in coastal and shelf systems.

An interactive visualization and data portal tool (PALTIDE) for relative sea level and palaeotidal simulations of the northwest European shelf seas since the Last Glacial Maximum

ABSTRACTRelative sea level (RSL) predictions based on glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) simulations and palaeotidal predictions generated by hydrodynamic models using GIA‐generated palaeotopographies are available in the published literature, and datasets are available via data repositories. However, these data are often difficult to extract for specific locations or timeslices, requiring users to request datasets from corresponding authors. To overcome the intractability of these data and to enable users to interrogate datasets themselves without requiring offline requests, we have developed PALTIDE, an online visualization tool with intuitive user interface accessible at https://shiny.bangor.ac.uk/paleotidal/. The model domain for this interactive visualization tool is the northwest European continental shelf, covering the period from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present day, and is based on previous GIA simulations by Bradley and colleagues and hydrodynamic simulations using Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) published by Ward and colleagues. The tool is developed in R and utilizes a number of packages including shiny and bslib for the frontend, and arrow, raster and the tidyverse for backend data processing. The tool enables visualizations and data downloads for RSL, tidal amplitude and tide‐dependent parameters for any location within the model domain over 1000‐year timesteps from the LGM to the present.

Realizing the European Vertical Reference System using model-based hydrodynamic leveling data

All realizations of the European Vertical Reference System (EVRS) computed so far are solely based on geopotential differences obtained by spirit leveling/gravimetry. As such, there are no direct connections between height benchmarks separated by large water bodies. In this study, such connections are added by means of model-based hydrodynamic leveling resulting in a new, yet unofficial realization of the EVRS. The model-derived mean water levels used in computing the hydrodynamic leveling connections were obtained from the Nemo-Nordic (Baltic Sea) and 3D DCSM-FM (northwest European continental shelf) hydrodynamic models. The impact of model-based hydrodynamic leveling on the European Vertical Reference Frame is significant, especially for France and Great Britain. Compared to a solution which only uses spirit leveling/gravimetry, the differences in these countries reach tens to hundreds of hbox {kgal}, hbox {mm}. We also observed an improved agreement with normal heights obtained by differencing GNSS and the European gravimetric quasi-geoid 2015 (EGG2015) heights. In Great Britain, the south-north slope of 48 mm hbox {deg}^{-1} present in the solution which uses only spirit leveling/gravimetry data reduced to 2.2 mm hbox {deg}^{-1}. In France, the improvement is confined to the southwest. The choice of the period over which water levels are averaged has an impact on the results as it determines, among others, the set of tide gauges available to establish the hydrodynamic leveling connections. When using an averaging period that can be considered as the least preferred choice based on three established criteria, the positive impact for France has gone. For Great Britain, the estimated south-north slope became 12.6 mm hbox {deg}^{-1}. This is larger than the slope obtained using the most preferred averaging period but still substantially lower compared to the slope associated with a solution that uses only spirit leveling/gravimetry.

Why Is Seasonal Density Stratification in Shelf Seas Expected to Increase Under Future Climate Change?

AbstractCoastal and shelf seas provide a diverse range of ecosystem services, which are often mediated by seasonal density stratification through its control on biogeochemical cycles. These seas are highly vulnerable to climate change and downscaling studies consistently project an increase in seasonal stratification over the next century, but without a clear explanation. Here we revisit a well‐established theory of coastal ocean mixing and demonstrate with a new ensemble of downscaled simulations for the Northwest European continental shelf seas to 2100 that the increase of expansivity with temperature is sufficient to consistently increase the seasonal stratification. Where there is a closed balance between buoyancy input and mixing, small changes in expansivity are amplified to a large relative change in stratification. This simple link between global heating and stratification substantially reduces uncertainty in projections of this key parameter in seas around the world.

Ocean shelf exchange, NW European shelf seas: Measurements, estimates and comparisons

Transports across the continental shelf edge enhance shelf-sea production, remove atmospheric carbon and imply an active boundary to ocean circulation. We estimate relatively large overall transport across three contrasted sectors of north-west European shelf edge: the Celtic Sea south-west of Britain, the Malin-Hebrides shelf west of Scotland, the West Shetland shelf north of Scotland. The estimates derive from measurements in the project FASTNEt (Fluxes across sloping topography of the North East Atlantic): drifters, moored current meters, effective “diffusivity” from drifter dispersion and salinity surveys, other estimates of velocity variance contributing to exchange. Process contributions include transport by along-slope flow, internal waves and their Stokes drift, tidal pumping, eddies, Ekman transports in the wind-driven surface layer and bottom boundary layer.Overall exchange across the shelf edge is estimated as several m2s−1: if extrapolated globally even 1 m2s−1 is large compared with oceanic transports and potentially important to shelf-sea and adjacent oceanic budgets. In our context, most exchange is in tides, and other motion with periods ∼ one day or less, and so effective only for water properties that evolve on such short time-scales. Nevertheless, cross-slope fluxes, and exchange by low-frequency motion (periods > two days), are large by global standards and also very variable. Deployment-mean fluxes nearest the shelf break were in the range 0.3–4 m2s−1; mean exchanges from low-frequency motion were 0.8–3 m2s−1. Deeper longer-term moorings and drifters crossing 500 m depth gave much larger fluxes and exchanges up to 20 m2s−1. These transports’ significance depends on distinctive properties of the water, or its contents, and on internal shelf-sea circulation affecting further transport. For the NW European shelf, transports across the shelf edge enable its disproportionately strong CO2 “pump”.The complex context, and small scales of numerous processes enabling cross-slope transports, imply a need for models. Measurements remain limited in extent and duration, but widely varied contexts, particular conditions, events, processes and behaviours are now available to support model validation, especially around the north-west European continental shelf edge. Variability still renders observations insufficient for stable estimates of transports and exchanges, especially if partitioned by sector and season; indeed, there may be significant inter-annual differences. Validated fine-resolution models give the best prospect of spatial and temporal coverage and of estimating present-day and potential future shelf-sea sensitivities to the adjacent ocean.

An Application of NEMOVAR for Regional Wave Model Data Assimilation

The benefits of applying data assimilation to a regional wave model for the northwest European continental shelf have been assessed. The assimilation method uses a 3D variational scheme commonly used in ocean model data assimilation, NEMOVAR, coupled to a regional configuration of WAVEWATCH III deployed on a Spherical Multiple-Cell grid with rotated pole. Significant wave height forecast skill was positively impacted over lead times of up to 12 hours, in both offshore and coastal areas of the model. Assimilation experiments tested the impacts of applying both satellite altimeter and in-situ platform observations of significant wave height as the state variable. Addition of in-situ data introduced an improvement in model skill versus assimilating altimeter measurements only, but these improvements were relatively short-lived in lead time (on the order of a few hours). Extending observation coverage into the coastal zone introduced a benefit for only the first 1-2 hours of forecast lead time at coastal sites. Although impacts on significant wave height forecasts were substantial at short lead times, the relatively short ‘system memory’ of the assimilation suggests that, in the case of the northwest European shelf region, the best application of wave data assimilation is in a rapidly cycling short range forecast system used to generate nowcasts, or for a reanalysis product.

Controls on near-bed oxygen concentration on the Northwest European Continental Shelf under a potential future climate scenario

Dissolved oxygen concentrations in the ocean are declining on a global scale. However, the impact of climate change on oxygen in shelf seas is not well understood. We investigate potential future changes in oxygen on the northwest European continental shelf under a business as usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5). Regions of the European shelf are thermally stratified from spring to autumn, which can cause oxygen depletion in sub-pycnocline waters. A transient climate-forced model simulation is used to study how the temperature, salinity and concentration of near bed dissolved oxygen change over the 21st century. In warming and freshening water, the oxygen concentration declines in all shelf regions. The climate change signal emerges first in salinity, then in temperature and finally in near bed oxygen. Regions that currently experience oxygen depletion (the eastern North Sea, Celtic Sea and Armorican shelf) become larger in the future scenario and oxygen depletion lasts longer. Solubility changes, caused by changes in temperature and salinity, are the dominant cause of reducing near bed oxygen concentrations in many regions. Until about 2040 the impact of solubility dominates over the effects of the evolving ecosystem. However, in the eastern North Sea by 2100, the effect of ecosystem change is generally larger than that of solubility. In the Armorican Shelf and Celtic Sea the ecosystem changes partially mitigate the oxygen decline caused by solubility changes. Over the 21st century the mean near bed oxygen concentration on the European shelf is projected to decrease by 6.3%, of which 73% is due to solubility changes and the remainder to changes in the ecosystem. For monthly minimum oxygen the decline is 7.7% with the solubility component being 50% of the total.

Modeling the Seasonality and Controls of Nitrous Oxide Emissions on the Northwest European Continental Shelf

AbstractEstimates of oceanic emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) are surrounded by a considerable degree of uncertainty, particularly regarding the contribution of productive shelf regions, where assessments are based on limited observations. In this paper, we have applied a coupled hydrodynamic‐biogeochemical model resolving N2O dynamics to estimate N2O emissions within the northwest European continental shelf. Based on 10‐year average distributions (2006–2015), dominant seasonal patterns of N2O air‐sea exchange were identified. Within the southwest region of the shelf and deep parts of the North Sea, emissions are highest during winter. Peak emissions during late autumn are typical for the northwest part of the shelf and central North Sea, while in the western English Channel, Irish Sea and western North Sea peak outflux shifts toward early autumn. Within these regions, most N2O production occurs below the seasonal pycnocline, and duration and intensity of stratification defines the timing and rate of its subsequent release to the atmosphere. In contrast, within the southeast North Sea and most of the coastal areas, lack of stratification allows the excess N2O to outgas as soon as it is produced, driven by ammonium availability, resulting in peak emissions in summer. We estimate that N2O emissions from the northwest European shelf contribute 0.02224 Tg N to the atmosphere annually, that is, between 3.3–6.8% of total emissions from European shelves and estuaries.

Carbon on the Northwest European Shelf: Contemporary Budget and Future Influences

A carbon budget for the northwest European continental shelf seas (NWES) was synthesized using available estimates for coastal, pelagic and benthic carbon stocks and flows. Key uncertainties were identified and the effect of future impacts on the carbon budget were assessed. The water of the shelf seas contains between 210 and 230 Tmol of carbon and absorbs between 1.3 and 3.3 Tmol from the atmosphere annually. Off-shelf transport and burial in the sediments account for 60–100 and 0–40% of carbon outputs from the NWES, respectively. Both of these fluxes remain poorly constrained by observations and resolving their magnitudes and relative importance is a key research priority. Pelagic and benthic carbon stocks are dominated by inorganic carbon. Shelf sediments contain the largest stock of carbon, with between 520 and 1600 Tmol stored in the top 0.1 m of the sea bed. Coastal habitats such as salt marshes and mud flats contain large amounts of carbon per unit area but their total carbon stocks are small compared to pelagic and benthic stocks due to their smaller spatial extent. The large pelagic stock of carbon will continue to increase due to the rising concentration of atmospheric CO2, with associated pH decrease. Pelagic carbon stocks and flows are also likely to be significantly affected by increasing acidity and temperature, and circulation changes but the net impact is uncertain. Benthic carbon stocks will be affected by increasing temperature and acidity, and decreasing oxygen concentrations, although the net impact of these interrelated changes on carbon stocks is uncertain and a major knowledge gap. The impact of bottom trawling on benthic carbon stocks is unique amongst the impacts we consider in that it is widespread and also directly manageable, although its net effect on the carbon budget is uncertain. Coastal habitats are vulnerable to sea level rise and are strongly impacted by management decisions. Local, national and regional actions have the potential to protect or enhance carbon storage, but ultimately global governance, via controls on emissions, has the greatest potential to influence the long-term fate of carbon stocks in the northwestern European continental shelf.

Increasing turbidity in the North Sea during the 20th century due to changing wave climate

Abstract. Data on Secchi disc depth (the depth at which a standard white disc lowered into the water just becomes invisible to a surface observer) show that water clarity in the North Sea declined during the 20th century, with likely consequences for marine primary production. However, the causes of this trend remain unknown. Here we analyse the hypothesis that changes in the North Sea's wave climate were largely responsible by causing an increase in the concentrations of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the water column through the resuspension of seabed sediments. First, we analysed the broad-scale statistical relationships between SPM and bed shear stress due to waves and tides. We used hindcasts of wave and current data to construct a space–time dataset of bed shear stress between 1997 and 2017 across the northwest European Continental Shelf and compared the results with satellite-derived SPM concentrations. Bed shear stress was found to drive most of the inter-annual variation in SPM in the hydrographically mixed waters of the central and southern North Sea. We then used a long-term wave reanalysis to construct a time series of bed shear stress from 1900 to 2010. This shows that bed shear stress increased significantly across much of the shelf during this period, with increases of over 20 % in the southeastern North Sea. An increase in bed shear stress of this magnitude would have resulted in a large reduction in water clarity. Wave-driven processes are rarely included in projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems, but our analysis indicates that this should be reconsidered for shelf sea regions.

The Parcels v2.0 Lagrangian framework: new field interpolation schemes

Abstract. With the increasing number of data produced by numerical ocean models, so increases the need for efficient tools to analyse these data. One of these tools is Lagrangian ocean analysis, where a set of virtual particles is released and their dynamics are integrated in time based on fields defining the ocean state, including the hydrodynamics and biogeochemistry if available. This popular methodology needs to adapt to the large variety of models producing these fields at different formats. This is precisely the aim of Parcels, a Lagrangian ocean analysis framework designed to combine (1) a wide flexibility to model particles of different natures and (2) an efficient implementation in accordance with modern computing infrastructure. In the new Parcels v2.0, we implement a set of interpolation schemes to read various types of discretized fields, from rectilinear to curvilinear grids in the horizontal direction, from z to s levels in the vertical direction and using grid staggering with the Arakawa A, B and C grids. In particular, we develop a new interpolation scheme for a three-dimensional curvilinear C grid and analyse its properties. Parcels v2.0 capabilities, including a suite of meta-field objects, are then illustrated in a brief study of the distribution of floating microplastic in the northwest European continental shelf and its sensitivity to various physical processes.

Legacy Data: How Decades of Seabed Sampling can Produce Robust Predictions and Versatile Products

Sediment maps developed from categorical data are widely applied to support marine spatial planning across various fields. However, deriving maps independently of sediment classification potentially improves our understanding of environmental gradients and reduces issues of harmonising data across jurisdictional boundaries. As the groundtruth samples are often measured for the fractions of mud, sand and gravel, this data can be utilised more effectively to produce quantitative maps of sediment composition. Using harmonised data products from a range of sources including the European Marine Observation and Data Network (EMODnet), spatial predictions of these three sediment fractions were generated for the north-west European continental shelf using the random forest algorithm. Once modelled these sediment fraction maps were classified using a range of schemes to show the versatility of such an approach, and spatial accuracy maps were generated to support their interpretation. The maps produced in this study are to date the highest resolution quantitative sediment composition maps that have been produced for a study area of this extent and are likely to be of interest for a wide range of applications such as ecological and biophysical studies.

Spatial distribution of foreshore litter on the northwest European continental shelf

Foreshore litter data from a UK citizen-science programme, combined with OSPAR data, were analysed for possible spatial patterns around Scottish and North Sea coastlines. Loading distributions were positively skewed, and statistics commensurate with such distributions were used. When considering coast type, litter loadings on Scottish harbour and river foreshores were influenced by local litter sources. When considering exposure to the predominant westerly winds over Scotland, litter loadings on the west coast (i.e. predominant onshore winds) were greater on foreshores on open coasts compared to those within embayments. The opposite was true for the Scottish east coast (i.e. predominantly offshore winds). The north east coast of the UK appeared to have an organised pattern of plastic litter loading, increasing in magnitude (median) and spread (inter quartile range) in the direction of the coastal flow. Four other coastal segments with similar patterns were suggested from the west of Scotland to Denmark.

Mechanisms for a nutrient-conserving carbon pump in a seasonally stratified, temperate continental shelf sea

Continental shelf seas may have a significant role in oceanic uptake and storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through a ‘continental shelf pump’ mechanism. The northwest European continental shelf, in particular the Celtic Sea (50°N 8°W), was the target of extensive biogeochemical sampling from March 2014 to September 2015 as part of the UK Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry research programme (UK-SSB). Here, we use the UK-SSB carbonate chemistry and macronutrient measurements to investigate the biogeochemical seasonality in this temperate, seasonally stratified system. Following the onset of stratification, near-surface biological primary production during spring and summer removed dissolved inorganic carbon and nutrients, and a fraction of the sinking particulate organic matter was subsequently remineralised beneath the thermocline. Water column inventories of these variables throughout 1.5 seasonal cycles, corrected for air-sea CO2 exchange and sedimentary denitrification and anammox, isolated the combined effect of net community production (NCP) and remineralisation on the inorganic macronutrient inventories. Overall inorganic inventory changes suggested that a significant fraction (>50%) of the annual NCP of around 3 mol-C m–2 yr–1 appeared to be stored within a long-lived organic matter (OM) pool with a lifetime of several months or more. Moreover, transfers into and out of this pool appeared not to be in steady state over the one full seasonal cycle sampled. Accumulation of such a long-lived and potentially C-rich OM pool is suggested to be at least partially responsible for the estimated net air-to-sea CO2 flux of ∼1.3 mol-C m–2 yr–1 at our study site, while providing a mechanism through which a nutrient-conserving continental shelf pump for CO2 could potentially operate in this and other similar regions.

Seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of the surface ocean carbonate system in the northwest European continental shelf

In 2014–5 the UK NERC sponsored an 18 month long Shelf Sea Biogeochemistry research programme which collected over 1500 nutrient and carbonate system samples across the NW European Continental shelf, one of the largest continental shelves on the planet. This involved the cooperation of 10 different Institutes and Universities, using 6 different vessels. Additional carbon dioxide (CO2) data were obtained from the underway systems on three of the research vessels. Here, we present and discuss these data across 9 ecohydrodynamic regions, adapted from those used by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). We observed strong seasonal and regional variability in carbonate chemistry around the shelf in relation to nutrient biogeochemistry. Whilst salinity increased (and alkalinity decreased) out from the near-shore coastal waters offshore throughout the year nutrient concentrations varied with season. Spatial and seasonal variations in the ratio of DIC to nitrate concentration were seen that could impact carbon cycling. A decrease in nutrient concentrations and a pronounced under-saturation of surface pCO2 was evident in the spring in most regions, especially in the Celtic Sea. This decrease was less pronounced in Liverpool Bay and to the North of Scotland, where nutrient concentrations remained measurable throughout the year. The near-shore and relatively shallow ecosystems such as the eastern English Channel and southern North Sea were associated with a thermally driven increase in pCO2 to above atmospheric levels in summer and an associated decrease in pH. Non-thermal processes (such as mixing and the remineralisation of organic material) dominated in winter in most regions but especially in the northwest of Scotland and in Liverpool Bay. The large database collected will improve understanding of carbonate chemistry over the North-Western European Shelf in relation to nutrient biogeochemistry, particularly in the context of climate change and ocean acidification.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This ‘switching’ between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Effects of self-attraction and loading at a regional scale: a test case for the Northwest European Shelf

The impact of the self-attraction and loading effect (SAL) in a regional 2D barotropic tidal model has been assessed, a term with acknowledged and well-understood importance for global models but omitted for boundary-forced, regional models, for which the implementation of SAL is non-trivial due to its non-local nature. In order to understand the impact of the lack of SAL effects in a regional scale, we have forced a regional model of the Northwest European Continental Shelf and the North Sea (continental shelf model (CSM)) with the SAL potential field derived from a global model (GTSM), in the form of a pressure field. Impacts have been studied in an uncalibrated setup and with only tidal forcing activated, in order to isolate effects. Additionally, the usually adopted simple SAL parameterization, in which the SAL contribution to the total tide is parameterized as a percentage of the barotropic pressure gradient (typically chosen 10%), is also implemented and compared to the results obtained with a full SAL computation. A significant impact on M2 representation is observed in the English Channel, Irish Sea and the west (UK East coast) and south (Belgian and Dutch Coast) of the North Sea, with an impact of up to 20 cm in vector difference terms. The impact of SAL translates into a consistent M2 amplitude and propagation speeds reduction throughout the domain. Results using the beta approximation, with an optimal domain-wide constant value of 1.5%, show a somewhat comparable impact in phase but opposite direction of the impact in amplitude, increasing amplitudes everywhere. In relative terms, both implementations lead to a reduction of the tidal representation error in comparison with the reference run without SAL, with the full SAL approach showing further impacted, improved results. Although the overprediction of tidal amplitudes and propagation speeds in the reference run might have additional sources like the lack of additional dissipative processes and non-considered bottom friction settings, results show an overall significant impact, most remarkable in tidal phases. After showing evidence of the SAL impact in regional models, the question of how to include this physical process in them in an efficient way arises, since SAL is a non-local effect and depends on the instantaneous water levels over the whole ocean, which is non-trivial to implement.

Operational oil spill trajectory modelling using HF radar currents: A northwest European continental shelf case study

This paper presents a novel operational oil spill modelling system based on HF radar currents, implemented in a northwest European shelf sea. The system integrates Open Modal Analysis (OMA), Short Term Prediction algorithms (STPS) and an oil spill model to simulate oil spill trajectories. A set of 18 buoys was used to assess the accuracy of the system for trajectory forecast and to evaluate the benefits of HF radar data compared to the use of currents from a hydrodynamic model (HDM). The results showed that simulated trajectories using OMA currents were more accurate than those obtained using a HDM. After 48h the mean error was reduced by 40%. The forecast skill of the STPS method was valid up to 6h ahead. The analysis performed shows the benefits of HF radar data for operational oil spill modelling, which could be easily implemented in other regions with HF radar coverage.

Predicting the standing stock of organic carbon in surface sediments of the North\u2013West European continental shelf

Shelf seas and their associated benthic habitats represent key systems in the global carbon cycle. However, the quantification of the related stocks and flows of carbon are often poorly constrained. To address benthic carbon storage in the North–West European continental shelf, we have spatially predicted the mass of particulate organic carbon (POC) stored in the top 10 cm of shelf sediments in parts of the North Sea, English Channel and Celtic Sea using a Random Forest model, POC measurements on surface sediments from those seas and relevant predictor variables. The presented model explains 78% of the variance in the data and we estimate that approximately 250 Mt of POC are stored in surficial sediments of the study area (633,000 km2). Upscaling to the North–West European continental shelf area (1,111,812 km2) yielded a range of 230–882 Mt of POC with the most likely estimate being on the order of 476 Mt. We demonstrate that the largest POC stocks are associated with coarse-grained sediments due to their wide-spread occurrence and high dry bulk densities. Our results also highlight the importance of coastal sediments for carbon storage and sequestration. Important predictors for POC include mud content in surficial sediments, annual average bottom temperature and distance to shoreline, with the latter possibly a proxy for terrestrial inputs. Now that key variables in determining the spatial distribution of POC have been identified, it is possible to predict future changes to the POC stock, with the presented maps providing an accurate baseline against which to assess predicted changes.

A 3D SPM model for biogeochemical modelling, with application to the northwest European continental shelf

An SPM resuspension method was developed for use in 3D coupled hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry models to feed into simulations of the under-water light climate and and primary production. The method uses a single mineral fine SPM component for computational efficiency, with a concentration-dependent settling velocity to parameterize the effect of settling of different size fractions. The SPM is resuspended in response to combined wave and current conditions. Wave conditions were calculated using a simple set of equilibrium equations, which allows computationally cheap inclusion of the large-scale spatial and temporal trends of the wave field. The development was carried out using 1D water-column implementations of GOTM-ERSEM-BFM for two sites for which multi-year time series observations from autonomous moorings (SmartBuoy) were available. A sensitivity study is included to illustrate the effect of the main variables controlling the exchange with the sea-bed and the settling velocity. The method was applied to a 3D model implementation of GETM-ERSEM-BFM for the north-west European continental shelf, comparing mineral fine SPM concentrations at five sites with SmartBuoy observations, and shelf-wide using remote sensing. The 3D implementation included a simple fitting method to generate gridded sea-bed composition information for use in the sea-bed boundary conditions. The results showed that the model produces reasonable simulations of seasonal SPM concentrations across the northwest European continental shelf.