Northern Winter Research Articles

Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures

AbstractMulti‐model simulations show a post‐Pinatubo eruption sequence of Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that includes a La Niña‐like pattern the third northern winter after an eruption, opposite in sign to what was observed after Pinatubo. This leads to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1990s affected by the Pinatubo eruption because the post‐eruption internal variability of the climate system did not match the multi‐model forced response. Agung (1963) and El Chichón (1982) happened to have post‐eruption Pacific SST sequences more similar to the multi‐model response and thus do not degrade prediction skill as measured by anomaly pattern correlation in the hindcasts. Thus, decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post‐eruption randomly occurring internal El Niño variability in the observations deviates from the multi‐model forced response that, by definition, averages out internal variability in favor of the forced response.

The correlation between electron temperature and density in the topside ionosphere during 2006–2009

AbstractDetection of Electro‐Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions satellite data have been used to investigate the global relationship between electron density (Ne) and electron temperature (Te) in the topside ionosphere (~680 km) from 2006 to 2009. Te and Ne were negatively correlated in most of the low and middle latitude regions at ~10:30 solar local time (LT). In these regions, photoelectron heating of the electrons was balanced by cooling through collisions with the ions. The negative correlation became weaker at midlatitudes, due to the increasing influence of heat conduction. The correlation was negative in most seasons during the daytime except at high latitudes in the northern winter, where a positive correlation occurred. There were wave‐like longitudinal structures in Ne and Te around the geomagnetic equator, but they had different patterns in the day and the night. However, no obvious longitudinal variations in the correlation were associated with these structures. A positive correlation occurred near the magnetic equator at ~22:30 LT, which depended on thermal equilibrium between the electrons, ions, and neutrals. A negative correlation occurred at midlatitudes. Around the September equinox, at night around the magnetic equator, the positive correlation had a wider latitudinal range. At midlatitudes, a negative correlation occurred in smaller areas than it did around the March equinox. Around the December solstice the direct nighttime coupling between Ne and Te was weaker than it was around the June solstice. The negative correlation depends on the collisions between the electrons and the ions and the heating source.

Dynamical Response to the QBO in the Northern Winter Stratosphere: Signatures in Wave Forcing and Eddy Fluxes of Potential Vorticity

Abstract Wave–mean flow interactions associated with the Holton–Tan effect (HTE), whereby the tropical quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex, are studied using the ERA-Interim dataset. Significant evidence of the HTE in isentropic coordinates is found, with a weaker and warmer polar vortex present when the lower-stratospheric QBO is in its easterly phase (QBOe). For the first time, the authors quantify the QBO modulation of wave propagation, wave–mean flow interaction, and wave decay/growth via a calculation of potential vorticity (PV)-based measures, the zonal-mean momentum budget, and up-/downgradient eddy PV fluxes. The effect of the tropospheric subtropical jet on QBO modulation of the wave activity is also investigated. In the subtropical-to-midlatitude lower stratosphere, QBOe is associated with an enhanced upward flux of wave activity, and corresponding wave convergence and wave growth, which leads to a stronger poleward zonal-mean meridional circulation and consequently a warmer polar region. In the middle stratosphere, QBOe is associated with increased poleward wave propagation, leading to enhanced wave convergence and in situ wave growth at high latitudes and contributing to the weaker polar vortex. In agreement with recent studies, the results suggest that the critical-line effect cannot fully account for these wave anomalies associated with the HTE. Instead, it is suggestive of a new, additional mechanism that hinges on the QBO-induced meridional circulation effect on the latitudinal positioning of the subtropical jet. Under QBOe, the QBO-induced meridional circulation causes a poleward shift of the subtropical jet, encouraging more waves to propagate into the stratosphere at midlatitudes.

On the potential of the ICOS atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> measurement network for estimating the biogenic CO<sub>2</sub> budget of Europe

Abstract. We present a performance assessment of the European Integrated Carbon Observing System (ICOS) atmospheric network for constraining European biogenic CO2 fluxes (hereafter net ecosystem exchange, NEE). The performance of the network is assessed in terms of uncertainty in the fluxes, using a state-of-the-art mesoscale variational atmospheric inversion system assimilating hourly averages of atmospheric data to solve for NEE at 6 h and 0.5° resolution. The performance of the ICOS atmospheric network is also assessed in terms of uncertainty reduction compared to typical uncertainties in the flux estimates from ecosystem models, which are used as prior information by the inversion. The uncertainty in inverted fluxes is computed for two typical periods representative of northern summer and winter conditions in July and in December 2007, respectively. These computations are based on a observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework. We analyzed the uncertainty in a 2-week-mean NEE as a function of the spatial scale with a focus on the model native grid scale (0.5°), the country scale and the European scale (including western Russia and Turkey). Several network configurations, going from 23 to 66 sites, and different configurations of the prior uncertainties and atmospheric model transport errors are tested in order to assess and compare the improvements that can be expected in the future from the extension of the network, from improved prior information or transport models. Assimilating data from 23 sites (a network comparable to present-day capability) with errors estimated from the present prior information and transport models, the uncertainty reduction on a 2-week-mean NEE should range between 20 and 50 % for 0.5° resolution grid cells in the best sampled area encompassing eastern France and western Germany. At the European scale, the prior uncertainty in a 2-week-mean NEE is reduced by 50 % (66 %), down to ~ 43 Tg C month−1 (26 Tg C month−1) in July (December). Using a larger network of 66 stations, the prior uncertainty of NEE is reduced by the inversion by 64 % (down to ~ 33 Tg C month−1) in July and by 79 % (down to ~ 15 Tg C month−1) in December. When the results are integrated over the well-observed western European domain, the uncertainty reduction shows no seasonal variability. The effect of decreasing the correlation length of the prior uncertainty, or of reducing the transport model errors compared to their present configuration (when conducting real-data inversion cases) can be larger than that of the extension of the measurement network in areas where the 23 station observation network is the densest. We show that with a configuration of the ICOS atmospheric network containing 66 sites that can be expected on the long-term, the uncertainties in a 2-week-mean NEE will be reduced by up to 50–80 % for countries like Finland, Germany, France and Spain, which could significantly improvement (and at least a high complementarity to) our knowledge of NEE derived from biomass and soil carbon inventories at multi-annual scales.

Intraseasonal Sea Surface Temperature Variability across the Indonesian Seas*

Abstract Sea surface temperature (SST) variability at intraseasonal time scales across the Indonesian Seas during January 1998–mid-2012 is examined. The intraseasonal variability is most energetic in the Banda and Timor Seas, with a standard deviation of 0.4°–0.5°C, representing 55%–60% of total nonseasonal SST variance. A slab ocean model demonstrates that intraseasonal air–sea heat flux variability, largely attributed to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), accounts for 69%–78% intraseasonal SST variability in the Banda and Timor Seas. While the slab ocean model accurately reproduces the observed intraseasonal SST variations during the northern winter months, it underestimates the summer variability. The authors posit that this is a consequence of a more vigorous cooling effect induced by ocean processes during the summer. Two strong MJO cycles occurred in late 2007–early 2008, and their imprints were clearly evident in the SST of the Banda and Timor Seas. The passive phase of the MJO [enhanced outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and weak zonal wind stress) projects on SST as a warming period, while the active phase (suppressed OLR and westerly wind bursts) projects on SST as a cooling phase. SST also displays significant intraseasonal variations in the Sulawesi Sea, but these differ in characteristics from those of the Banda and Timor Seas and are attributed to ocean eddies and atmospheric processes independent from the MJO.

On the relationship between weakening of the northern polar vortex and the lunar tidal amplification in the equatorial electrojet

AbstractEnhanced lunar tidal effects in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) during northern winters in the form of “big L” days have been known for a long time. Recent studies suggest that the changes in the tidal propagation conditions due to stratospheric sudden warmings could be responsible for this phenomenon. In this work we have used the H component of the magnetic field recorded at Huancayo from 1997 to 2013 to study the relation between the timing and magnitude of the semimonthly lunar tide in the EEJ and the stratospheric polar vortex weakening (PVW). We prefer a definition of PVW by taking into account the atmospheric conditions from December to February for each winter. Our results indicate that the semimonthly lunar tide in the EEJ gets enhanced during northern winters when a significant PVW occurs and its peak timing and magnitude is correlated with the timing and intensity of PVW. The timing of lunar tidal peaks and PVW correlate better than their respective magnitudes. Our results suggest that the initiation of the lunar tidal enhancement in most of the cases is closely related to a PVW event. Furthermore, we discuss events where the semimonthly lunar tidal enhancements are not well timed with respect to PVW. We also suggest that the amount of tropospheric forcing into the stratosphere plays a major role in the enhancement of the lunar tides in the EEJ.

Magnetospheric line radiation: 6.5 years of observations by the DEMETER spacecraft

AbstractFrequency‐time spectrograms of electromagnetic waves observed in the inner magnetosphere in the frequency range of about 1–8 kHz are sometimes formed by several nearly horizontal and almost equidistant intense lines. Such events are called magnetospheric line radiation (MLR). We use a list of 1230 MLR events identified in all the data measured by the low‐altitude satellite Detection of Electro‐Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions (DEMETER) during the duration of the mission (2004–2010). We compare the occurrence of MLR events with solar wind parameters and geomagnetic indices using a superposed epoch analysis. It is found that MLR events occur more often after periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity, being statistically related to specific solar wind parameters. Moreover, the length of the analyzed time interval allows us to investigate the influence of the solar cycle and the season of the year. The events occur more often during the northern winter and spring than during the northern summer. As for the spatial distribution of the events, they occur less frequently at geomagnetic longitudes of the South Atlantic Anomaly. We analyze energy spectra of electrons precipitating in this area at the times of MLR events, and we derive energy‐latitude plots of electron flux variations related to the MLR occurrence. Finally, we perform a detailed wave analysis of two MLR events for which high‐resolution multicomponent data are available. The events are right‐handed and nearly circularly polarized, propagating at oblique wave normal angles from larger radial distances and larger geomagnetic latitudes.

NmF2 enhancement during ionospheric F2 region nighttime: A statistical analysis based on COSMIC observations during the 2007–2009 solar minimum

AbstractIn this paper the global features of NmF2 enhancement occurring during ionospheric F2 region nighttime (the period when the sunlight is occulted by the Earth in the altitudinal range of ionospheric F2 region) and lasting for more than 2 h were investigated based on Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) measurements during the 2007–2009 solar minimum. This nighttime enhancement of NmF2 mainly appears at the latitudes with dips larger than 45° in the winter hemisphere in solstice seasons. The magnitude of NmF2 enhancement reaches latitudinal maxima (minima) at the geomagnetic latitudes of about 40°–50° (60°–70°), with larger magnitudes in the northern winter hemisphere than in the southern winter hemisphere. The longitudinal variation of nighttime enhancement is also evident; especially the magnitude of NmF2 enhancement shows a significant longitudinal modulation in the southern winter hemisphere. The controlling factors of the spatial variations of NmF2 nighttime enhancement were analyzed. The longitudinal variation of NmF2 nighttime enhancement is suggested to be related to the longitudinal differences in background NmF2, thermospheric density, and interhemispheric plasma transport, and the latitudinal variation of NmF2 nighttime enhancement is possibly related to the latitudinal variations of geomagnetic inclination and the plasma storage in the topside ionosphere and the plasmasphere. The configuration of the geomagnetic field plays an important role in the longitudinal and latitudinal variations of NmF2 nighttime enhancement.

A decomposition of ENSO’s impacts on the northern winter stratosphere: competing effect of SST forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean

This study applies WACCM, a stratosphere-resolving model to dissect the stratospheric responses in the northern winter extratropics to the imposed ENSO-related SST anomalies in the tropics. It is found that the anomalously warmer and weaker stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO is basically a balance of the opposite effects between the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific (TPO) and that over the tropical Indian Ocean basin (TIO). Specifically, the ENSO-related SST anomalies over the TIO are to induce an anomalously colder and stronger stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO, which acts to partially cancel out the much stronger warmer and weaker polar vortex response to the SST anomalies over the TPO. Further analysis indicates that, while the SST forcing from the TPO contributes to the anomalously positive Pacific North America (PNA) pattern in the troposphere and the enhancement of the stationary wavenumber (WN)-1 in the stratosphere during warm ENSO, the TIO SST forcing is to induce an anomalously negative PNA and a reduction of both WN-1 and WN-2 in the stratosphere. Diagnosis of E–P flux confirms that, the anomalously upward propagation of stationary waves in the extratropics mainly lies over the western coast of North America during warm ENSO, which is mainly associated with the TPO-induced positive PNA response and is partially suppressed by the effect of the accompanying TIO SST forcing.

The solsticial pause on Mars: 1. A planetary wave reanalysis

Large-scale planetary waves are diagnosed from an analysis of profiles retrieved from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft during its scientific mapping phase. The analysis is conducted by assimilating thermal profiles and total dust opacity retrievals into a Mars global circulation model. Transient waves are largest throughout the northern hemisphere autumn, winter and spring period and almost absent during the summer. The southern hemisphere exhibits generally weaker transient wave behaviour. A striking feature of the low-altitude transient waves in the analysis is that they show a broad subsidiary minimum in amplitude centred on the winter solstice, a period when the thermal contrast between the summer hemisphere and the winter pole is strongest and baroclinic wave activity might be expected to be strong. This behaviour, here called the ‘solsticial pause,’ is present in every year of the analysis. This strong pause is under-represented in many independent model experiments, which tend to produce relatively uniform baroclinic wave activity throughout the winter. This paper documents and diagnoses the transient wave solsticial pause found in the analysis; a companion paper investigates the origin of the phenomenon in a series of model experiments.

Seasonal variability of Saturn’s tropospheric temperatures, winds and para-H2 from Cassini far-IR spectroscopy

Far-IR 16–1000μm spectra of Saturn’s hydrogen–helium continuum measured by Cassini’s Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) are inverted to construct a near-continuous record of upper tropospheric (70–700mbar) temperatures and para-H2 fraction as a function of latitude, pressure and time for a third of a saturnian year (2004–2014, from northern winter to northern spring). The thermal field reveals evidence of reversing summertime asymmetries superimposed onto the belt/zone structure. The temperature structure is almost symmetric about the equator by 2014, with seasonal lag times that increase with depth and are qualitatively consistent with radiative climate models. Localised heating of the tropospheric hazes (100–250mbar) create a distinct perturbation to the temperature profile that shifts in magnitude and location, declining in the autumn hemisphere and growing in the spring. Changes in the para-H2 (fp) distribution are subtle, with a 0.02–0.03 rise over the spring hemisphere (200–500mbar) perturbed by (i) low-fp air advected by both the springtime storm of 2010 and equatorial upwelling; and (ii) subsidence of high-fp air at northern high latitudes, responsible for a developing north–south asymmetry in fp. Conversely, the shifting asymmetry in the para-H2 disequilibrium primarily reflects the changing temperature structure (and hence the equilibrium distribution of fp), rather than actual changes in fp induced by chemical conversion or transport. CIRS results interpolated to the same point in the seasonal cycle as re-analysed Voyager-1 observations (early northern spring) show qualitative consistency from year to year (i.e., the same tropospheric asymmetries in temperature and fp), with the exception of the tropical tropopause near the equatorial zones and belts, where downward propagation of a cool temperature anomaly associated with Saturn’s stratospheric oscillation could potentially perturb tropopause temperatures, para-H2 and winds. Quantitative differences between the Cassini and Voyager epochs suggest that the oscillation is not in phase with the seasonal cycle at these tropospheric depths (i.e., it should be described as quasi-periodic rather than ‘semi annual’). Variability in the zonal wind field derived from latitudinal thermal gradients is small (<10m/s per scale height near the tropopause) and mostly affects the broad retrograde jets, with the notable exception of large variability on the northern flank of the equatorial jet. The meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient, and hence the ‘staircase of PV’ associated with spatial variations in the vigour of vertical mixing, has varied over the course of the mission but maintained its overall shape. PV gradients in latitude and altitude are used to estimate the atmospheric refractive index for the propagation of stationary planetary (Rossby) waves, predicting that such wave activity would be confined to regions of real refractivity (tropical regions plus bands at 35–45° in both hemispheres). The penetration depth of these regions into the upper troposphere is temporally variable (potentially associated with stratification changes), whereas the latitudinal structure is largely unchanged over time (associated with the zonal jet system).

Interannual and intraseasonal variability of stratospheric dynamics and stratosphere–troposphere coupling during northern winter

The UK Met Office reanalysis data have been used to investigate the interannual and intraseasonal variability of the stratospheric dynamics and thermal structure. The results obtained show that the maximum of interannual variability of the mean zonal flow associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is observed at the altitude of about 30km. It is shown that there is a statistically significant influence of the QBO phase on the extratropical stratosphere, the so-called, Holton–Tan effect. The results of data analysis show that the conditions under the easterly QBO phase are more favorable for the development of the sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW). The statistical analysis of 15 major SSW observed during two last decades has been performed. The obtained results demonstrate that in recent years internal processes associated with nonlinear interactions of stationary planetary waves (SPW) with the mean flow played a dominant role. It is shown that the first enhancement of the SPW1 in the upper stratosphere takes place because of an amplification of nonlinear interactions between this wave and the mean flow. This enhancement is accompanied by a subsequent increase in the wave activity flux from the stratosphere into the troposphere with further redistribution of wave activity in the horizontal plane. Then, an increase of the upward flux from the troposphere into the stratosphere in another region occurs. The secondary enhancement of the planetary wave activity in the stratosphere is accompanied by the heating of the polar region and the weakening, or even reversal of the stratospheric jet. Additionally to the well-known result that meridional refraction of SPW to the polar region in stratosphere is one of the preconditions of development SSW, the nonlinear wave–wave and wave–mean flow interactions can play an important role before and during SSW. It is shown that the upper stratosphere can be considered as the region where SPW2 is generated during SSW.

Chorus intensity modulation driven by time‐varying field‐aligned low‐energy plasma

AbstractRecent studies have shown that chorus waves are responsible for scattering and precipitating the energetic electrons that drive the pulsating aurora. While some of the chorus intensity modulation events are correlated with &lt;~100 eV electron density modulation, most of the chorus intensity modulation events in the postmidnight sector occur without apparent density changes. Although it is generally difficult to measure evolution of low‐energy (&lt;~20 eV) electron fluxes due to constraints imposed by the spacecraft potential and electrostatic analyzer (ESA) energy range limit, we identified using Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) satellite data that low‐energy ions of ~100 eV show density modulation that is correlated with chorus intensity modulation. Those low‐energy ions and electrons are field‐aligned with major peaks in 0° (for northern hemisphere winter event) and 180° (for northern hemisphere summer event) pitch angle, indicating that outflowing plasma from the sunlit hemisphere is the source of the low‐energy plasma density modulation near the equator. Plasma sheet plasma density, and ambient electric and magnetic fields do not show modulations that are correlated with the chorus intensity modulation. Assuming charge neutrality, the low‐energy ions can be used to represent cold plasma density in wave growth rate calculations, and the enhancements of the low‐energy plasma density are found to contribute most effectively to chorus linear growth rates. These results suggest that chorus intensity modulation is driven by a feedback process where outflowing plasma due to energetic electron precipitation increases the equatorial density that drives further electron precipitation.

SAMI3/SD‐WACCM‐X simulations of ionospheric variability during northern winter 2009

AbstractWe have performed simulations using the Naval Research Laboratory's physics‐based model of the ionosphere, Sami3 is A Model of the Ionosphere (SAMI3), to illustrate how neutral wind dynamics is responsible for day‐to‐day variability of the ionosphere. We have used neutral winds specified from the extended version of the specified dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD‐WACCM‐X), in which meteorology below 92 km is constrained by atmospheric specifications from an operational weather forecast model and reanalysis. To assess the realism of the simulations against observations, we have carried out a case study during January–February 2009, a dynamically disturbed time characterized by a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) commencing 24 January 2009. Model results are compared with total electron content (TEC) from Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric maps. We show that SAMI3/SD‐WACCM‐X captures longitudinal variability in the equatorial ionization anomaly associated with nonmigrating tides, with strongest contributions coming from the diurnal eastward wave number 2 (DE2) and DE3. Both migrating and nonmigrating tides contribute to significant day‐to‐day variability, with TEC varying up to 16%. Our simulation during the SSW period reveals that at the Jicamarca longitude (285°E) on 27 January 2009 nonmigrating tides contribute to an enhancement of the electron density in the morning followed by a decrease in the afternoon. An enhancement of the semidiurnal eastward wave number 2 (SE2) and SE3 nonmigrating tides, likely associated with the appearance of the SSW, suggests that these tides increase the longitudinal variability of the SSW impact on the ionosphere. The conclusion is that realistic meteorology propagating upward from the lower atmosphere influences the dynamo region and reproduces aspects of the observed variability in the ionosphere.

Gravity Wave–Induced Anomalous Potential Vorticity Gradient Generating Planetary Waves in the Winter Mesosphere

Abstract This study shows that gravity wave (GW) forcing (GWF) plays a crucial role in the barotropic/baroclinic instability that is frequently observed in the mesosphere and considered an origin of planetary waves (PWs) such as quasi-2-day and quasi-4-day waves. Simulation data from a GW-resolving general circulation model were analyzed, focusing on the winter Northern Hemisphere where PWs are active. The unstable field is characterized by a significant potential vorticity (PV) maximum with an anomalous latitudinal gradient at higher latitudes that suddenly appears in the midlatitudes of the upper mesosphere. This PV maximum is attributed to an enhanced static stability that develops through the following two processes: 1) strong PWs from the troposphere break in the middle stratosphere, causing a poleward and downward shift of the westerly jet to higher latitudes, and 2) strong GWF located above the jet simultaneously shifts and forms an upwelling in the midlatitudes, causing a significant increase in . An interesting feature is that the PV maximum is not zonally uniform but is observed only at longitudes with strong GWF. This longitudinally dependent GWF can be explained by selective filtering in the stratospheric mean flow modified by strong PWs. In the upper mesosphere, the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence by PWs has a characteristic structure, which is positive poleward and negative equatorward of the enhanced PV maximum, attributable to eastward- and westward-propagating PWs, respectively. This fact suggests that the barotropic/baroclinic instability is eliminated by simultaneous generation of eastward and westward PWs causing PV flux divergence.

Connection of predictability of major stratospheric sudden warmings to polar vortex geometry

AbstractThis study explores a possible connection between predictability variations of major stratospheric sudden warmings (MSSWs) during Northern winter and the geometry of the polar vortex. We compare 1‐month hindcasts from 1979 to 2012 of the Japan Meteorological Agency to the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis data. Results show that error variations of medium range (≈14 day) forecasts of 21 actual MSSWs do depend on the observed geometry of the polar vortex: the errors are larger for vortex split MSSWs when the polar vortex is highly stretched as characterized by a high aspect ratio and an amplified zonal wavenumber 2 component.

Wave-3 and wave-4 patterns in the low- and mid-latitude ionospheric TEC

The JPL global ionospheric maps (GIMs) from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2013 are analyzed using the space-time spectral analysis method to obtain the tidal patterns in the ionospheric TEC. The results show that noticeable wave-3 and wave-4 signatures can be detected near the crests of equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) regions. Wave-4 structure is comprised predominately by DE3 component, while wave-3 structure is comprised mainly by DE2 component. SPW4 (SPW3) component also accounts for the wave-4 (wave-3) signature. The absolute amplitude of all the aforementioned tidal and SPW signatures shows a saturation effect on the solar activity. The tidal components have significant seasonal variations, with the prominent latitudinal asymmetry. The relative amplitude of zonal mean TEC, however, shows persistent patterns with little solar activity dependence. DE3 is intense in March and September/October, and is weak in northern winter and southern summer. DE2 is strong in the southern hemisphere, and is weak in boreal winter. The amplitude of tide DE3 in TEC is smaller than that of DE2.

Intraseasonal Persistence of European Surface Temperatures

Abstract Recent periods of extreme weather in Europe, such as the cold winter of 2009/10, have caused widespread impacts and were remarkable because of their persistence. It is therefore of great interest to improve the ability to forecast such events. Weather forecasts at midlatitudes generally show low skill beyond 5–10 days, but long-range forecast skill may increase during extended tropospheric blocking episodes or perturbations of the stratospheric polar vortex, which can affect midlatitude weather for several weeks at a time. Here a simple, linear approach is used to identify previously undocumented persistence in northern European summer and winter temperature anomalies in climate model simulations, corroborated by observations and reanalysis data. For instance, temperature anomalies of at least one standard deviation above or below climatology in March were found to be about 20%–120% more likely than normal if the preceding February was anomalous by 0.5–1.5 standard deviations (with the same sign). The corresponding range for April (i.e., persistence over two months) is between 20% and 80%. The persistence is observed irrespective of the data source or driving mechanisms, and the temperature itself is a more skillful predictor of the temperatures one month ahead than the stratospheric polar vortex or the NAO and even than both factors together. The results suggest potential to conditionally improve the skill of long-range forecasts and enhance recent advancements in dynamical seasonal prediction.

Resolution Dependence of European Precipitation in a State-of-the-Art Atmospheric General Circulation Model

Abstract In this study, the authors investigate the effect of GCM spatial resolution on modeled precipitation over Europe. The objectives of the analysis are to determine whether climate models have sufficient spatial resolution to have an accurate representation of the storm tracks that affect precipitation. They investigate if there is a significant statistical difference in modeled precipitation between a medium-resolution (~112-km horizontal resolution) and a high-resolution (~25-km horizontal resolution) version of a state-of-the-art AGCM (EC-EARTH), if either model resolution gives a better representation of precipitation in the current climate, and what processes are responsible for the differences in modeled precipitation. The authors find that the high-resolution model gives a more accurate representation of northern and central European winter precipitation. The medium-resolution model has a larger positive bias in precipitation in most of the northern half of Europe. Storm tracks are better simulated in the high-resolution model, providing for a more accurate horizontal moisture transport and moisture convergence. Using a decomposition of the precipitation difference between the medium- and high-resolution model in a part related and a part unrelated to a difference in the distribution of vertical atmospheric velocity, the authors find that the smaller precipitation bias in central and northern Europe is largely unrelated to a difference in vertical velocity distribution. The smaller precipitation amount in these areas is in agreement with less moisture transport over this area in the high-resolution model. In areas with orography the change in vertical velocity distribution is found to be more important.

Seasonal variation of the HDO/H2O ratio in the atmosphere of Mars at the middle of northern spring and beginning of northern summer

We present the seasonal variation of the HDO/H2O ratio caused by sublimation–condensation processes in a global view of the martian water cycle. The HDO/H2O ratio was retrieved from ground-based observations using high-dispersion echelle spectroscopy of the Infrared Camera and Spectrograph (IRCS) of the Subaru telescope. Coordinated joint observations were made by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) onboard Mars Express (MEX). The observations were performed during the middle of northern spring (Ls=52°) and at the beginning of summer (Ls=96°) in Mars Year 31. The retrieved latitudinal mean HDO/H2O ratios are 4.1±1.4 (Ls=52°) and 4.4±1.0 (Ls=96°) times larger than the terrestrial Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water (VSMOW). The HDO/H2O ratio shows a large seasonal variation at high latitudes. The HDO/H2O ratio significantly increases from 2.4±0.6wrt VSMOW at Ls=52° to 5.5±1.1wrt VSMOW at Ls=96° over the latitude range between 70°N and 80°N. This can be explained by preferential condensation of HDO vapor during the northern fall, winter, and spring and sublimation of the seasonal polar cap in the northern summer. In addition, we investigated the geographical distribution of the HDO/H2O ratio over low latitudes at the northern spring in the longitudinal range between 220°W and 360°W, including different local times from 10h to 17h. We found the HDO/H2O ratio has no significant variation (5.1±1.2wrt VSMOW) over the entire range. Our observations suggest that the HDO/H2O distribution in the northern spring and summer seasons is mainly controlled by condensation-induced fractionation between the seasonal northern polar cap and the atmosphere.