Northern Hemisphere Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Understanding the Increasing Hot Extremes over the Northern Extratropics Using Community Atmosphere Model

The past four decades have seen an increase of terrestrial hot extremes during summer in the northern extratropics, accompanied by the Northern Hemisphere (NH) sea surface temperature (SST) warming (mainly over 10°–70°N, 0°–360°) and CO2 concentration rising. This study aims to understand possible causes for the increasing hot extremes, which are defined on a daily basis. We conduct a series of numerical experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 model for two periods, 1979–1995 and 2002–2018. The experiment by changing the CO2 concentration only with the climatological SST shows less increase of hot extremes days than that observed, whereas that by changing the NH SST (over 10°–70°N, 0°–360°) with constant CO2 concentration strengthens the hot extremes change over mid-latitudes. The experiment with both SST and CO2 concentration changes shows hot extremes change closer to the observation compared to the single-change experiments, as well as more similar simulations of atmospheric circulations and feedbacks from cloud and radiative processes. Also discussed are roles of natural variability (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and other factors (e.g., Arctic sea ice and tropical SST).

Breaks in Linear Trends or Parts of Cycles?

Understanding the trends and periodicities in geophysical processes is imperative for assessing and forecasting their future change. However, it is possible to mistreat parts of cycles as linear trends with sudden breaks when analysing short-term data. We demonstrate this through the analysis of solar irradiance data as well as Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea surface temperature (SST) data sets, with emphasis on the (a) analyses of trends in total solar irradiance (TSI) and (b) association of trends in SST with solar activity during the period from 1900 to 2017. The trends estimated using singular spectrum analysis together with linear regression revealed statistically significant long periodic non-linear trends in both TSI and SST data. Our results suggest that the appraisal of linear trends to identify their breaks/sudden changes is a biased approach when analysing data sets of shorter periods, when the data are governed by long periodic dynamical processes. The non-linear trends identified in SST data may be physically associated with the TSI trend change and anthropogenic CO2. A plausible physical mechanism is also discussed with respect to the influence of solar activity on the trend in atmospheric CO2. Finally, our study concludes that (1) breaks in linear trends are pseudo-attribution of parts of cycles, and (2) the statistically significant trends in NH and SH SST are mainly associated with loadings from trend changes in solar irradiance.

Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift

AbstractThe sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

Response of the global surface ozone distribution to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature changes: implications for long-range transport

Abstract. The response of surface ozone (O3) concentrations to basin-scale warming and cooling of Northern Hemisphere oceans is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Idealized, spatially uniform sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of ±1 °C are individually superimposed onto the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and North Indian oceans. Our simulations suggest large seasonal and regional variability in surface O3 in response to SST anomalies, especially in the boreal summer. The responses of surface O3 associated with basin-scale SST warming and cooling have similar magnitude but are opposite in sign. Increasing the SST by 1 °C in one of the oceans generally decreases the surface O3 concentrations from 1 to 5 ppbv. With fixed emissions, SST increases in a specific ocean basin in the Northern Hemisphere tend to increase the summertime surface O3 concentrations over upwind regions, accompanied by a widespread reduction over downwind continents. We implement the integrated process rate (IPR) analysis in CESM and find that meteorological O3 transport in response to SST changes is the key process causing surface O3 perturbations in most cases. During the boreal summer, basin-scale SST warming facilitates the vertical transport of O3 to the surface over upwind regions while significantly reducing the vertical transport over downwind continents. This process, as confirmed by tagged CO-like tracers, indicates a considerable suppression of intercontinental O3 transport due to increased tropospheric stability at lower midlatitudes induced by SST changes. Conversely, the responses of chemical O3 production to regional SST warming can exert positive effects on surface O3 levels over highly polluted continents, except South Asia, where intensified cloud loading in response to North Indian SST warming depresses both the surface air temperature and solar radiation, and thus photochemical O3 production. Our findings indicate a robust linkage between basin-scale SST variability and continental surface O3 pollution, which should be considered in regional air quality management.

Synchrony of trend shifts in Sahel boreal summer rainfall and global oceanic evaporation, 1950–2012

Abstract. Between 1950 and 2012, boreal summer (rainy season) rainfall in the Sahel changed from a multi-decadal decreasing trend to an increasing trend (positive trend shift) in the mid-1980s. We found that this trend shift was synchronous with similar trend shifts in global oceanic evaporation and in land precipitation on all continents except the Americas. The trend shift in oceanic evaporation occurred mainly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and the subtropical oceans of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Because increased oceanic evaporation strengthens the atmospheric moisture transport toward land areas, the synchrony of oceanic evaporation and land precipitation is reasonable. Surface scalar winds over the SH oceans also displayed a positive trend shift. Sea surface temperature (SST) displayed a trend shift in the mid-1980s that was negative (increasing, then decreasing) in the SH and positive in the NH. Although SST had opposite trend shifts in both hemispheres, the trend shift in evaporation was positive in both hemispheres. We infer that because strong winds promote evaporative cooling, the trend shift in SH winds strengthened the trend shifts in both SST and evaporation in the SH. Because high SST promotes evaporation, the trend shift in NH SST strengthened the NH trend shift in evaporation. Thus differing oceanic roles in the SH and NH generated the positive trend shift in evaporation; however, the details of moisture transport toward the Sahel are still unclear, or perhaps there is no single determining influence.

On the effect of orbital forcing on mid-Pliocene climate, vegetation and ice sheets

Abstract. We present results from modelling of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3–3 million years ago) using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 analysing the effect of changes in boundary conditions as well as of orbital forcing on climate. First we performed equilibrium experiments following the PlioMIP (Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project) protocol with a CO2 concentration of 405 ppm, reconstructed mid-Pliocene orography and vegetation and a present-day orbital configuration. Simulated global Pliocene warming is about 2.5 °C, fully consistent with results of atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations performed for the same modelling setup. A factor separation analysis attributes 1.5 °C warming to CO2, 0.3 °C to orography, 0.2 °C to ice sheets and 0.4 °C to vegetation. Transient simulations for the entire mid-Pliocene warm period with time-dependent orbital forcing as well as interactive ice sheets and vegetation give a global warming varying within the range 1.9–2.8 °C. Ice sheet and vegetation feedbacks in synergy act as amplifiers of the orbital forcing, transforming seasonal insolation variations into an annual mean temperature signal. The effect of orbital forcing is more significant at high latitudes, especially during boreal summer, when the warming over land varies in the wide range from 0 to 10 °C. The modelled ice-sheet extent and vegetation distribution also show significant temporal variations. Modelled and reconstructed data for Northern Hemisphere sea-surface temperatures and vegetation distribution show the best agreement if the reconstructions are assumed to be representative for the warmest periods during the orbital cycles. This suggests that low-resolution Pliocene palaeoclimate reconstructions can reflect not only the impact of increased CO2 concentrations and topography changes but also the effect of orbital forcing. Therefore, the climate (Earth system) sensitivity estimates from Pliocene reconstructions which do not account for the effect of orbital forcing can be biased toward high values.

Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model

Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), the two leading decadal modes of observed Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature (SST) variability, are investigated in a multi‐millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). It is shown that the two phenomena are independent modes in the model and can be easily separated by Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis of model SST. PDV‐related variability covers the whole North Pacific with strong signals in both the mid‐latitude North Pacific and the western Tropical Pacific. Strong signals are also simulated in the eastern Indian Ocean Sector. PDV's memory, however, resides in the North Pacific and is linked to the subtropical gyre. The AMV mechanism is related to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). A stochastic mechanism applies to both PDV and AMV.

An abrupt drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature around 1970

The twentieth-century trend in global-mean surface temperature was not monotonic: temperatures rose from the start of the century to the 1940s, fell slightly during the middle part of the century, and rose rapidly from the mid-1970s onwards. The warming-cooling-warming pattern of twentieth-century temperatures is typically interpreted as the superposition of long-term warming due to increasing greenhouse gases and either cooling due to a mid-twentieth century increase of sulphate aerosols in the troposphere, or changes in the climate of the world's oceans that evolve over decades (oscillatory multidecadal variability). Loadings of sulphate aerosol in the troposphere are thought to have had a particularly important role in the differences in temperature trends between the Northern and Southern hemispheres during the decades following the Second World War. Here we show that the hemispheric differences in temperature trends in the middle of the twentieth century stem largely from a rapid drop in Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures of about 0.3 °C between about 1968 and 1972. The timescale of the drop is shorter than that associated with either tropospheric aerosol loadings or previous characterizations of oscillatory multidecadal variability. The drop is evident in all available historical sea surface temperature data sets, is not traceable to changes in the attendant metadata, and is not linked to any known biases in surface temperature measurements. The drop is not concentrated in any discrete region of the Northern Hemisphere oceans, but its amplitude is largest over the northern North Atlantic.

Simulated variability in the mean atmospheric meridional circulation over the 20th century

The variability in the zonally averaged atmospheric meridional circulation over the last 150 years is investigated using two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). A multi‐decadal signal, with an approximately 70 year timescale, is identified in the cross‐equatorial circulation. This signal is associated with a latitudinal shift in the ascending branch of the Hadley cell and precipitation in the tropics, as well as a change in the atmospheric meridional heat transport. These changes are well‐correlated with the inter‐hemispheric SST difference: When Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are colder than the Southern Hemisphere, the ITCZ and precipitation shift to the south in a zonal mean sense, and the northward atmospheric energy transport increases. Previous studies with idealized climate forcings have shown similar results, but the findings presented here highlight the potential relevance of the inter‐hemispheric SST contrast for understanding 20th century climate changes.

Relationships between interannual variations in stratospheric warmings, tropospheric circulation, and sea surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere

The leading modes of interannual and long-term variations in the stratospheric and tropospheric circulation and total ozone (TOMS data) and their relations to Northern Hemisphere sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are investigated using the monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the winter months of 1958–2003. Strong correlations are indicated between the interannual total ozone variations over Labrador and the North Atlantic and changes in the stratospheric polar vortex. The onset of major stratospheric warmings is connected not only with the strengthening of westerlies at the 500-hPa level in the midlatitude Atlantic, but also with the weakening of tropospheric winds over the north of eastern Siberia and strengthening over the Far East. In years with major stratospheric warmings, abnormally cold winters are observed in Eurasia, especially in eastern Siberia and northeastern China. The calculated simultaneous (with no time lags) correlations of the stratospheric circulation changes with El Nino/La Nina events give evidence of low correlations between the tropical Pacific SST anomalies and the stratospheric dynamics in the Arctic. However, there are high correlations of the extratropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies with interannual tropospheric and stratospheric circulation variations, the stratospheric dynamics being more strongly connected with Pacific SST than with Atlantic SST anomalies. The interannual changes in tropospheric circulation are coupled to SST anomalies in both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Mechanisms of long-term changes in the interactive ocean-atmosphere-ozone layer system are discussed.

Surface water response of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean to orbital forcing

The response of the mixed layer of the equatorial Atlantic to climate change, for times greater than 10 kyr, is predominantly forced by the precessional component of insolation. A zonal transect of three cores analyzed at 1‐kyr intervals documents this response for 0–250 ka The western equatorial Atlantic is characterized by minimal variation in surface water character, indicating temporal stability of the mixed layer, except during intervals of maximum glaciation. In contrast, the eastern region shows marked temporal variations in estimated sea surface temperature and foraminiferal assemblages, with dominant periodicities centered on 23 kyr. At precessional periods, the eastern equatorial Atlantic responds in phase with southern hemisphere sea surface temperature and significantly leads northern hemisphere sea surface temperature and continental ice volume. These signals are the product of orbitally forced variations in (1) trade wind and monsoon‐controlled divergence and (2) advection of heat from high southern latitudes.