Northern Hemisphere Mean Temperature Research Articles

La Niña-driven flooding in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during the past millennium

Extreme precipitation events are one of the most consequential components of climate change for society. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of precipitation variability in the tropics and causes severe flooding and drought in many socioeconomically vulnerable regions. It remains unclear how tropical rainfall extremes and ENSO are changing in response to anthropogenic forcing, demanding that we investigate the relationships between precipitation, ENSO, and external forcing in the past. Lake sediment records have provided benchmark records of extreme flood events from the eastern tropical Pacific, where paleofloods have been interpreted to reflect El Niño events during the last millennium. However, the connections between flooding and ENSO variability in this region are uncertain, and the eastern Pacific can only capture precipitation events driven by El Niño, not La Niña. Thus, it is unclear how the ENSO system and tropical rainfall extremes have changed in the recent past. Here, we reconstruct flood events during the past millennium using a lake sediment record from East Java, Indonesia, which can provide insight into flooding driven by La Niña. We detect flood frequency variations in the western tropical Pacific that are highly coherent with records from the eastern part of the basin over the past millennium. Our findings demonstrate that heavy rainfall and flooding occurs more frequently on both sides of the tropical Pacific during periods of warmer Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, implying that ENSO-driven rainfall extremes could intensify in the near future.

Possible causes of data model discrepancy in the temperature history of the last Millennium

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions are the main tools for quantifying pre-instrumental climate variations. For some metrics such as Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, there is remarkable agreement between models and reconstructions. For other diagnostics, such as the regional response to volcanic eruptions, or hemispheric temperature differences, substantial disagreements between data and models have been reported. Here, we assess the potential sources of these discrepancies by comparing 1000-year hemispheric temperature reconstructions based on real-world paleoclimate proxies with climate-model-based pseudoproxies. These pseudoproxy experiments (PPE) indicate that noise inherent in proxy records and the unequal spatial distribution of proxy data are the key factors in explaining the data-model differences. For example, lower inter-hemispheric correlations in reconstructions can be fully accounted for by these factors in the PPE. Noise and data sampling also partly explain the reduced amplitude of the response to external forcing in reconstructions compared to models. For other metrics, such as inter-hemispheric differences, some, although reduced, discrepancy remains. Our results suggest that improving proxy data quality and spatial coverage is the key factor to increase the quality of future climate reconstructions, while the total number of proxy records and reconstruction methodology play a smaller role.

DETECTING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS BY DESIGNED BREAK‐INDICATOR SATURATION

AbstractWe present a methodology for detecting breaks at any point in time‐series regression models using an indicator saturation approach, applied here to modelling climate change. Building on recent developments in econometric model selection for more variables than observations, we saturate a regression model with a full set of designed break functions. By selecting over these break functions using an extended general‐to‐specific algorithm, we obtain unbiased estimates of the break date and magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the approximate properties of the approach. We assess the methodology by detecting volcanic eruptions in a time series of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature spanning roughly 1200 years, derived from a fully coupled global climate model simulation. Our technique demonstrates that historic volcanic eruptions can be statistically detected without prior knowledge of their occurrence or magnitude‐ and hence may prove useful for estimating the past impact of volcanic events using proxy reconstructions of hemispheric or global mean temperature, leading to an improved understanding of the effect of stratospheric aerosols on temperatures. The break detection procedure can be applied to evaluate policy impacts as well as act as a robust forecasting device.

Climatic and societal impacts of a volcanic double event at the dawn of the Middle Ages

Volcanic activity in and around the year 536 CE led to severe cold and famine, and has been speculatively linked to large-scale societal crises around the globe. Using a coupled aerosol-climate model, with eruption parameters constrained by recently re-dated ice core records and historical observations of the aerosol cloud, we reconstruct the radiative forcing resulting from a sequence of two major volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. We estimate that the decadal-scale Northern Hemisphere (NH) extra-tropical radiative forcing from this volcanic “double event” was larger than that of any period in existing reconstructions of the last 1200 years. Earth system model simulations including the volcanic forcing show peak NH mean temperature anomalies reaching more than −2 °C, and show agreement with the limited number of available maximum latewood density temperature reconstructions. The simulations also produce decadal-scale anomalies of Arctic sea ice. The simulated cooling is interpreted in terms of probable impacts on agricultural production in Europe, and implies a high likelihood of multiple years of significant decreases in crop production across Scandinavia, supporting the theory of a connection between the 536 and 540 eruptions and evidence of societal crisis dated to the mid-6th century.

Long-range memory in internal and forced dynamics of millennium-long climate model simulations

Abstract. Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature records from a palaeoclimate reconstruction and a number of millennium-long climate model experiments are investigated for long-range memory (LRM). The models are two Earth system models and two atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. The periodogram, detrended fluctuation analysis and wavelet variance analysis are applied to examine scaling properties and to estimate a scaling exponent of the temperature records. A simple linear model for the climate response to external forcing is also applied to the reconstruction and the forced climate model runs, and then compared to unforced control runs to extract the LRM generated by internal dynamics of the climate system. The climate models show strong persistent scaling with power spectral densities of the form S(f) ~ f −β with 0.8 < β < 1 on timescales from years to several centuries. This is somewhat stronger persistence than found in the reconstruction (β ≈ 0.7). We find no indication that LRM found in these model runs is induced by external forcing, which suggests that LRM on sub-decadal to century time scales in NH mean temperatures is a property of the internal dynamics of the climate system. Reconstructed and instrumental sea surface temperature records for a local site, Reykjanes Ridge, are also studied, showing that strong persistence is found also for local ocean temperature.

On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO

We estimate the low-frequency internal variability of Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature using observed temperature variations, which include both forced and internal variability components, and several alternative model simulations of the (natural + anthropogenic) forced component alone. We then generate an ensemble of alternative historical temperature histories based on the statistics of the estimated internal variability. Using this ensemble, we show, first, that recent NH mean temperatures fall within the range of expected multidecadal variability. Using the synthetic temperature histories, we also show that certain procedures used in past studies to estimate internal variability, and in particular, an internal multidecadal oscillation termed the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” or “AMO”, fail to isolate the true internal variability when it is a priori known. Such procedures yield an AMO signal with an inflated amplitude and biased phase, attributing some of the recent NH mean temperature rise to the AMO. The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming. Claims of multidecadal “stadium wave” patterns of variation across multiple climate indices are also shown to likely be an artifact of this flawed procedure for isolating putative climate oscillations.

NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability

AbstractThe twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming‐cooling‐warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15–20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO‐based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971–2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012–2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.

Climate of the last millennium: ensemble consistency of simulations and reconstructions

Abstract. Are simulations and reconstructions of past climate and its variability consistent with each other? We assess the consistency of simulations and reconstructions for the climate of the last millennium under the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble. In this type of analysis, the null hypothesis is that reconstructions and simulations are statistically indistinguishable and, therefore, are exchangeable with each other. Ensemble consistency is assessed for Northern Hemisphere mean temperature, Central European mean temperature and for global temperature fields. Reconstructions available for these regions serve as verification data for a set of simulations of the climate of the last millennium performed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Consistency is generally limited to some sub-domains and some sub-periods. Only the ensemble simulated and reconstructed annual Central European mean temperatures for the second half of the last millennium demonstrates unambiguous consistency. Furthermore, we cannot exclude consistency of an ensemble of reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature with the simulation ensemble mean. If we treat simulations and reconstructions as equitable hypotheses about past climate variability, the found general lack of their consistency weakens our confidence in inferences about past climate evolutions on the considered spatial and temporal scales. That is, our available estimates of past climate evolutions are on an equal footing but, as shown here, inconsistent with each other.

A new atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI) derived from climate proxies: Procedure, results and applications

This paper introduces a new procedure to investigate the influence of weather types on spatio-temporal tree-ring growth patterns. Within the framework of the procedure a new proxy-based climate index termed as the atmospheric circulation tree-ring index (ACTI) is calculated that combines weather-type classification data with climate proxies. The new approach is tested using a Central European multi-species tree-ring width network consisting of 115 sites. The procedure used to calculate the ACTI time series includes: 1. Monte Carlo simulations, 2. multiple testing correction, and 3. selection and grouping algorithms. The tree-ring width series are grouped according to their weather-type responses, and the ACTI time series were computed for each group.The new procedure explains the climate signal preserved in tree-ring chronologies more comprehensively because the complex interaction between the different climate elements is taken into account by using weather-type classification data. Strong correlations between the ACTI and tree-ring width series (r=0.69) and between the ACTI time series and climate gridded datasets (r>0.6) were observed. Further a correlation between ACTI and northern hemisphere mean temperatures (r=0.5) were found. These results indicate that the ACTI enables the investigation of weather-type growth relationships.

Climate effects of northern hemisphere volcanic eruptions in an Earth System Model

We study climate effects of mid- and high-latitude volcanic eruptions seen in an ensemble of six 1200-year simulations with the COSMOS Earth System Model. 18 eruptions are studied, of which 7 happen in January, 8 in July and 3 in September. The average aerosol optical depth (AOD) over latitudes north of 30° N reached after the eruptions ranges from 0.1030 to 0.2941. The largest maximum monthly effects on clear-sky shortwave radiation occur for the January eruptions (in the following summer), but for the averaged quantity over the 21months following the eruptions, the summer eruptions cause a larger effect. Largest zonal average radiative forcings are 5–6Wm‐2 (cooling). Average maximum perturbation of northern hemisphere monthly mean temperature is −0.19K and is on average −0.095K during the 21months following an eruption. The maximum decrease in northern hemisphere temperature is not that sensitive to the time of the eruption but depends more on the size of the eruption. July and September eruptions, however, cause a larger average effect on northern hemisphere mean temperature for the 21months following the eruptions. The precipitation anomaly is on average −0.0058mm/day during the 21months following an eruption, and though the signal is weak compared to climate variability, our large sample allows us to assign 90% significance to the decrease in precipitation. Effects on atmospheric carbon dioxide and the resulting feedbacks are small.

The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability

Abstract. We present two new multi-proxy reconstructions of the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere (30–90° N) mean temperature: a two-millennia long reconstruction reaching back to 1 AD and a 500-yr long reconstruction reaching back to 1500 AD. The reconstructions are based on compilations of 32 and 91 proxies, respectively, of which only little more than half pass a screening procedure and are included in the actual reconstructions. The proxies are of different types and of different resolutions (annual, annual-to-decadal, and decadal) but all have previously been shown to relate to local or regional temperature. We use a reconstruction method, LOCal (LOC), that recently has been shown to confidently reproduce low-frequency variability. Confidence intervals are obtained by an ensemble pseudo-proxy method that both estimates the variance and the bias of the reconstructions. The two-millennia long reconstruction shows a well defined Medieval Warm Period, with a peak warming ca. 950–1050 AD reaching 0.6 °C relative to the reference period 1880–1960 AD. The 500-yr long reconstruction confirms previous results obtained with the LOC method applied to a smaller proxy compilation; in particular it shows the Little Ice Age cumulating in 1580–1720 AD with a temperature minimum of −1.0 °C below the reference period. The reconstructed local temperatures, the magnitude of which are subject to wide confidence intervals, show a rather geographically homogeneous Little Ice Age, while more geographical inhomogeneities are found for the Medieval Warm Period. Reconstructions based on different subsets of proxies show only small differences, suggesting that LOC reconstructs 50-yr smoothed extra-tropical NH mean temperatures well and that low-frequency noise in the proxies is a relatively small problem.

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun-climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ(18)O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun-climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ(14)C) and climate (δ(18)O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ(18)O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ(18)O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ(18)O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core (10)Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.

Technical Note: Correcting for signal attenuation from noisy proxy data in climate reconstructions

Abstract. Regression-based climate reconstructions scale one or more noisy proxy records against a (generally) short instrumental data series. Based on that relationship, the indirect information is then used to estimate that particular measure of climate back in time. A well-calibrated proxy record(s), if stationary in its relationship to the target, should faithfully preserve the mean amplitude of the climatic variable. However, it is well established in the statistical literature that traditional regression parameter estimation can lead to substantial amplitude attenuation if the predictors carry significant amounts of noise. This issue is known as "Measurement Error" (Fuller, 1987; Carroll et al., 2006). Climate proxies derived from tree-rings, ice cores, lake sediments, etc., are inherently noisy and thus all regression-based reconstructions could suffer from this problem. Some recent applications attempt to ward off amplitude attenuation, but implementations are often complex (Lee et al., 2008) or require additional information, e.g. from climate models (Hegerl et al., 2006, 2007). Here we explain the cause of the problem and propose an easy, generally applicable, data-driven strategy to effectively correct for attenuation (Fuller, 1987; Carroll et al., 2006), even at annual resolution. The impact is illustrated in the context of a Northern Hemisphere mean temperature reconstruction. An inescapable trade-off for achieving an unbiased reconstruction is an increase in variance, but for many climate applications the change in mean is a core interest.

Inter-hemispheric comparison of climate change in the last millennium based on the ECHO-G simulation

The commonality and difference in the variations of temperature and precipitation between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH) in the last millennium are investigated by analysis of the millennium simulation with the ECHO-G coupled climate model. The NH mean temperature variations are generally consistent with those of the SH counterpart on the interannual, decadal and centennial time scales. But, the transition times between the medieval warm period (MWP), the little ice age (LIA), and the present-day warm period (PWP) in the NH leads that in the SH; and the anomaly amplitude in the NH is significantly larger than the SH counterpart. For the precipitation variations, the NH mean precipitation varies in-phase with the SH mean precipitation on decadal and centennial scales (mainly in the mid-high latitudes) but out-of-phase on the interannual scale (mainly in the low latitudes). During the MWP the warming has comparable amplitude in the NH and SH; however, during the PWP the NH warming is considerably stronger than the SH warming. Further, the present-day temperature rises in the NH high latitudes but decreases in the SH high latitudes, which is very different from the warming pattern during the MWP. Since during the MWP the greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration stayed at a low level, we infer that the present-day opposite temperature tendency in the high latitudes between the two hemispheres may be related to the increase of the GHG concentration.

Comments on “Testing the Fidelity of Methods Used in Proxy-Based Reconstructions of Past Climate”

Abstract Mann et el. found that a version of the Regularized Expectation Maximization (RegEM) method to reconstruct the temperatures of the last millennium showed similar results to previous reconstructions in one of their earlier papers. They also tested the RegEM method in the surrogate climate of a simulation with the Climate System Model (CSM) and found no attenuation of the pseudoreconstructed centennial variability of the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature compared to the one simulated by the model. This is in contrast with the results by von Storch et al., who found, in a simulation with ECHO-G model, that the earlier Mann et al. method underestimates the centennial temperature variability of the Northern Hemisphere temperature. The newer paper by Mann et al. explains that this difference is in part due to the unrealistic character of the ECHO-G simulation. However, it is shown here that similar results to those of von Storch et al. are also found in an ECHO-G simulation that closely resembles the CSM simulation used by Mann et al. Therefore, it is argued here that this discrepancy could be related to other factors, probably to the use of a longer calibration period and to the difference between RegEM and the original method by Mann et al.

Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature?

While the Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature has clearly warmed over the 20th century due in large part to increasing greenhouse gases, this warming has not been monotonic. The departures from steady warming on multidecadal timescales might be associated in part with radiative forcing, especially solar irradiance, volcanoes, and anthropogenic aerosols. It is also possible that internal oceanic variability explains a part of this variation. We report here on simulations with a climate model in which the Atlantic Ocean is constrained to produce multidecadal fluctuations similar to observations by redistributing heat within the Atlantic, with other oceans left free to adjust to these Atlantic perturbations. The model generates multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures similar in phase and magnitude to detrended observations. The results suggest that variability in the Atlantic is a viable explanation for a portion of the multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere mean temperature record.

Climate reconstruction by regression – 32 variations on a theme

Regression-based methods fail to provide a sufficiently unique reconstruction of a given millennial history of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature. They instead offer a multitude of variants, depending on the specific data processing scheme. Using a simulated climate history with noise-disturbed pseudo-proxies, we systematically test a set of such configurations, each of which appears to be a priori reasonable, with existing applications elsewhere. This results in an entire spectrum between practically useless and almost perfect reconstructions. The reason lies in the fact that the training variations are not representative of the full millennium, and the regression equations have to be extrapolated. This creates an error that is proportional to both the model uncertainty and the proxy amplitudes. Estimation of that uncertainty is paramount for a useful millennial reconstruction, especially if it is of the parameter-loaded multiproxy type.

Proxy-Based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain

Abstract Results are presented from a set of experiments designed to investigate factors that may influence proxy-based reconstructions of large-scale temperature patterns in past centuries. The factors investigated include 1) the method used to assimilate proxy data into a climate reconstruction, 2) the proxy data network used, 3) the target season, and 4) the spatial domain of the reconstruction. Estimates of hemispheric-mean temperature are formed through spatial averaging of reconstructed temperature patterns that are based on either the local calibration of proxy and instrumental data or a more elaborate multivariate climate field reconstruction approach. The experiments compare results based on the global multiproxy dataset used by Mann and coworkers, with results obtained using the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (NH) maximum latewood tree-ring density set used by Briffa and coworkers. Mean temperature reconstructions are compared for the full NH (Tropics and extratropics, land and ocean) and extratropical continents only, withvarying target seasons (cold-season half year, warm-season half year, and annual mean). The comparisons demonstrate dependence of reconstructions on seasonal, spatial, and methodological considerations, emphasizing the primary importance of the target region and seasonal window of the reconstruction. The comparisons support the generally robust nature of several previously published estimates of NH mean temperature changes in past centuries and suggest that further improvements in reconstructive skill are most likely to arise from an emphasis on the quality, rather than quantity, of available proxy data.

Atmospheric impact of the 1783–1784 Laki Eruption: Part II Climatic effect of sulphate aerosol

Abstract. The long 1783-1784 eruption of Laki in southern Iceland, was one of the first eruptions to have been linked to an observed climate anomaly, having been held responsible for cold temperatures over much of the Northern Hemisphere in the period 1783-1785. Results from the first climate model simulation of the impact of a similar eruption to that of 1783-1784 are presented. Using sulphate aerosol fields produced in a companion chemical transport model simulation by Stevenson et al. (2003), the radiative forcing and climate response due to the aerosol are calculated here using the Reading Intermediate General Circulation Model (IGCM). The peak Northern Hemisphere mean direct radiative forcing is -5.5 Wm-2 in August 1783. The radiative forcing dies away quickly as the emissions from the volcano decrease; however, a small forcing remains over the Mediterranean until March 1784. There is little forcing in the Southern Hemisphere. There is shown to be an uncertainty of at least 50% in the direct radiative forcing due to assumptions concerning relative humidity and the sophistication of the radiative transfer code used. The indirect effects of the Laki aerosol are potentially large but essentially unquantifiable at the present time. In the IGCM at least, the aerosol from the eruption produces a climate response that is spatially very variable. The Northern Hemisphere mean temperature anomaly averaged over the whole of the calendar year containing most of the eruption is -0.21 K, statistically significant at the 95% level and in reasonable agreement with the available observations of the temperature during 1783.

Survey of Greenland instrumental temperature records: 1873–2001

AbstractTemporal and spatial variability are analysed in Greenland instrumental temperature records from 24 coastal and three ice sheet locations. Trends over the longest period available, 1873–2001, at Ilulissat/Jakobshavn indicate statistically significant warming in all seasons: 5°C in winter. Trends over the 1901–2000 century in southern Greenland indicate statistically significant spring and summer cooling. General periods of warming occurred from 1885 to 1947 and 1984 to 2001, and cooling occurred from 1955 to 1984. The standard period 1961–90 was marked by 1–2°C statistically significant cooling. In contrast to Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures, the 1990s do not contain the warmest years on record in Greenland. The warmest years in Greenland were 1932, 1947, 1960, and 1941. The coldest years were 1918, 1984, 1993, and 1972, several of which coincide with major volcanic eruptions. Over 1991–2000, statistically significant 2–4°C warming was observed in western Greenland, 1.1°C warming at the ice sheet summit (3200 m), although this is statistically insignificant. Annual temperature trends are dominated by winter variability. Much of the observed variability is shown to be linked with the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), sea ice extent, and volcanism. The correlation of coastal temperature anomalies with the NAO is statistically significant, in autumn and winter at western and southern sites. Warming from 1873 to 1930 and subsequent cooling persists after the removal of the NAO signal. Temperature trends are often opposite between west and east Greenland. This apparent teleconnection is spurious, however, given insignificant east–west correlation values. Frequency peaks correspond with periods of 3.7, 14.3, 9.1, 5.5–6.0, 11.1, and 7.1 years in both temperature and NAO. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society.