Groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions are complex phenomena that vary naturally over space and time and are being influenced by environmental change. The Whitson River watershed is a mixed land-use Precambrian shield watershed located in Northeastern Ontario, Canada in which groundwater is a source of municipal water supply and in which groundwater and surface waters are at risk of potential impacts from urban runoff, ongoing municipal drainage projects, periodic flooding, and climate change. This study used watershed-scale synoptic surveys of stable isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) and geochemistry, and corresponding mixing-model approaches (two-component and three-component) to quantify the seasonal and spatial variation in surface water, ambient, and urban groundwater contributions to streamflow. Multiple mixing models were generated based on isotope and geochemical source water identification, and the performance of these models was compared. Mixing-model analyses showed that groundwater contributes a critical, sustaining source to streamflow (> 50 % or more) during summer baseflow conditions, dropping to ∼ 15 % in fall when connection to shield lakes and wetlands dominate. Three-component mixing models showed similar results to the two-component models, refining groundwater contributions into ambient and urban groundwater sources. Estimated urban groundwater contributed 30 % or more to summer baseflow, dropping to ∼ 4 % in the fall. Baseflow estimates derived from graphical hydrograph separation were similar to mixing model groundwater estimates in the summer but suggest this approach overestimates groundwater contributions during the fall. These results demonstrate the complexity of source water contributions to streamflow and the challenges in their determination in mixed-land-use Precambrian Shield landscapes where communities are largely located. Assessment of source water contributions to streamflow across the Whitson River sub-watershed has generated a region-specific conceptualization (e.g. urban versus ambient groundwater) of a basin that is experiencing increased urban development, providing information that will be of value for long term management.
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