North-south Climatic Gradient Research Articles

Flowering and fruiting of Parkia biglobosa (Jacq.) Benth according to agro climatic zones and land use system in Souhtern Mali

Flowering and fruiting of Parkia biglobosa were monitored along the north–south climatic gradient in Mali. Three sites (Somasso, Zanzoni and Diou) were concerned. Adult trees were monitored in field and fallow stands. Significant variations of flowering and fruiting were observed according to site and stand. The onset of phenological events started earlier in the south and progressed toward the north. Four to five months of flowering and three to four months of fruiting were observed in all sites. The trend of flowering and fruiting was similar for fields and fallows. The difference between sites like that between stands was not significant for the length of flowering and of fruiting. The number of flowering trees varied according to year and stand in all sites. At Somasso 100% of trees in the fallow stand flowered all years, while in the field stand, it fluctuated from 93% in 2019 and 2020 to 100% in 2021. At Zanzoni, 100% of trees in field stand flowered all years, while in the fallow stands it fluctuated from 93% in 2019 and 2021 to 73% in 2020. At Diou, 60% of trees in the fallow stand flowered all years, while in the fields it fluctuated from 73% in 2019 and 2020 to 77% in 2021. The trend of fruiting was similar to that of flowering. The results indicate that phenological events of P. biglobosa are controlled by an intrinsic force and they can be influenced by other factors, such as management practices.

Climatic gradients and forest composition shape bat communities in Eastern Mediterranean pine plantations.

Biotic and abiotic factors can act as filters for determining the species composition of biological communities. We aimed to identify abiotic factors driving the assembly of bat communities in Eastern Mediterranean pine plantations along a north-south climatic gradient, as they are crucial forest habitats for the assessment and conservation of these communities. We expected that bat communities are predominantly shaped by environmental filtering. We conducted acoustic sampling in 35 pine plantations in Israel and analyzed recordings for species identification. We used the ESLTP analysis, an extension of the three-table ordination (RLQ analysis), to explore relationships between environmental characteristics, species occurrences, and functional traits of species while accounting for phylogenetic relationships between species and spatial distribution of the communities. Communities showed phylogenetic and trait clustering. Climatic conditions and forest vegetation composition shaped communities of bats, affecting the distribution of traits related to foraging behaviors, vegetation clutter, and the ability of bats to maneuver in it. Maneuverable species were associated with the northern Mediterranean climatic zone, with a scarce cover of drought-tolerant small shrubs and grassland. Fast flyers were associated with the center-south semi-arid area, with abundant drought-tolerant small shrubs and grassland. These forces might have a predominant role in the assembly of these communities, presumably due to the stressful climatic conditions of the study area. The ESLTP approach can be extended to other taxa and environments to predict species responses to disturbance and environmental changes and give insights into environmental management.

Leachate Lithium Characteristics of Loess‐paleosol Sequences on the Chinese Loess Plateau and their Paleoclimatic Significance

AbstractThe geochemical components of the leachate from loess‐paleosol deposits can provide information about climate‐related post‐depositional processes. For example, leachate lithium ([Li]leachate) is a potential paleoclimate proxy because lithium is a typical lithophile element that is readily adsorbed by clay minerals during weathering and pedogenesis, and thus stratigraphic variations in [Li]leachate can reflect these processes. We investigated the [Li]leachate values of two loess‐paleosols profiles (the Luochuan and Weinan sections), on a north–south climatic gradient on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Independent paleoclimate information was provided by measurements of magnetic susceptibility, grain size, Rb/Sr ratios, and clay mineral content. During the last glacial‐interglacial period, [Li]leachate increased from 0.39 to 1.97 μg/g at Luochuan and from 0.67 to 2.45 μg/g at Weinan, mainly due to increasing pedogenesis. Based on these results we developed a conceptual model to explain the variations in [Li]leachate. Li+ within loess layers is mainly derived from dust input and the decomposition of primary minerals, influenced by the East Asian winter monsoon, while in paleosol layers Li+ is mainly derived from clay mineral adsorption during pedogenic processes, influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon.

Relationships between weather and yield anomalies vary with crop type and latitude in Sweden

CONTEXTInformation on how crop yields are affected by weather variations and extreme weather is needed to develop climate adaptation measures for arable cropping systems. Here, we analysed the effects of weather anomalies and soil texture on crop yield anomalies across Sweden from 1965 to 2020. OBJECTIVEThe aims of this study were to (i) assess the effects of temperature and precipitation anomalies and extreme weather on crop yield anomalies for major field crops across Sweden, (ii) quantify how crop responses to weather anomalies vary along the north-south climate gradient across Sweden, and (iii) elucidate the impacts of soil texture on yield responses to weather anomalies. METHODSWe used daily mean air temperature, daily total precipitation, soil texture and crop yield data from public databases covering all 21 counties in Sweden. Yield data was detrended to account for the effects of agricultural intensification on crop productivity. To assess seasonal weather influences on crop yields, temporal trends of daily average temperature and daily total precipitation were detrended for each season containing a three-month period. We also used a water balance index and a heat wave index to evaluate the impact of extreme weather. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSOur analyses showed that years with extreme weather during summer (i.e. heat waves, drought or water excess) resulted in the largest negative yield anomalies. Spring-sown crops were more negatively affected by extreme weather compared to autumn-sown crops, which we associate with differences in the lengths of the growth period for autumn- and spring-sown crops. Effects of soil texture on yield anomalies were found for spring-sown cereals, where negative effects of drought were exacerbated with increasing sand content. Moreover, we showed that the effects of weather conditions on crop yield anomalies differed between different regions within the country. In northern Sweden, crop yields were more sensitive to excess water, while drought effects were more pronounced in southern Sweden. Similarly, increased summer temperatures favoured crop yields in northern Sweden but had a negative impact on crop yields in the southern part of the country. SIGNIFICANCEOur study demonstrates that weather impacts on yields vary between crops and locations, and that adaptation to future climate will require crop- and site-specific strategies.

Lessons from a regional analysis of forest recovery trajectories in West Africa

In West Africa, very poorly documented are the recovery trajectories of secondary forests, and even less is known about the origin of the observed variability in recovery rates. To understand the relative importance of local and regional environmental conditions on these trajectories, we inventoried all trees larger than 2.5 cm DBH on 236 plots (0.2 ha), aged from 0 to 45 years plus controls, on eight chronosequences representing the typical regional North-South climatic gradient of West Africa. In a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we modelled recovery trajectories of biodiversity, aboveground biomass and floristic composition and tested the influence of variability in local (plot history, landscape context, remnant trees) and regional (climate and soil) conditions on recovery rates. Our results show that (a) diversity recovers faster than composition and biomass, (b) among the local variables, the number of remnant trees has a positive impact on recovery rates while the duration of agricultural cultivation has a negative impact, and (c) among the regional variables, the high seasonality of precipitation and climate, typical of the dry forests of the northern West African forest zone, leads to faster secondary successions. Our simulation approaches have indicated that poor regional conditions can be counterbalanced by adequate local conditions and vice versa, which argues strongly in favour of a diagnosis that integrates these two aspects in the choice of more or less active technical itineraries for forest restoration.

Predicting plant biomass and species richness in temperate grasslands across regions, time, and land management with remote sensing and deep learning

Spatial predictions of biomass production and biodiversity at regional scale in grasslands are critical to evaluate the effects of management practices across environmental gradients. New generations of remote sensing sensors and machine learning approaches can predict these grassland characteristics with varying accuracy. However, such studies frequently fail to cover a sufficiently broad range of environmental conditions, and their prediction models are often case-specific. To address this gap, we have modelled above-ground biomass and species richness in 150 spatially independent grassland plots of three geographical regions in Germany. These regions follow a North-South climate gradient and differ in soil types, topography, elevation, climatic conditions, historical contexts, and management intensities. The predictors tested in this study are Sentinel-1 backscatter, Sentinel-2 time series of surface reflectance along with derived vegetation indices and Rao's Q, and a set of topoedaphic variables. We compared the performance of a feed-forward deep neural network (DNN) with a random forest (RF) regression algorithm. The DNN achieved the best estimations of biomass (r2 = 0.45) when trained with Sentinel-2 surface reflectance only. Moreover, the DNN showed a higher generalizability than RF during spatial cross-validations (i.e., calibrating and validating in different regions, r2 = 0.38 vs. 0.26). Species richness predictions by both algorithms improved when the full time series of Sentinel-2 surface reflectance values were used (highest r2 = 0.42 achieved by the DNN), but both performed poorly during spatial cross-validations. Overall, the DNN-based models were more robust than RF models, showed a lower bias and lower systematic error, and required fewer inputs. Explainability analysis indicated that red-edge and near infrared information from May and October was the most relevant to predict species richness. This study presents an important step forward in generating robust spatially explicit predictions of grassland attributes and biodiversity variables across large areas, environmental gradients, and phenological stages.

A review of climate change effects on the regeneration dynamics of balsam fir

Balsam fir (Abies balsamea) is one of the most abundant softwood species in eastern Canada but is projected to be adversely affected by climate change. Balsam fir decline could occur due to a combination of reduced germination and regeneration, lower growth and competitive ability, and higher rates of mortality. However, tree regeneration represents one of the most vulnerable stages to climate-induced stress. In this paper, we synthesize potential and observed effects of climate change on balsam fir regeneration. Recent studies have shown no detrimental effects of increased temperatures on either germination or seedling growth of balsam fir, but clear deleterious effects of decreased water availability. Balsam fir seeds require 28–60 days of cold stratification to become germinable, and such conditions should still be met under climate change across most of the species’ range. Sampling along a north-south climatic gradient throughout the Acadian Forest Region of eastern Canada indicated effects are complex and do not suggest a clear decline under warmer, drier conditions for the species. Thus, effects of global warming on balsam fir may be more gradual than projected in modeling studies and occur primarily via reduced competitive ability and/or higher mortality in overstory trees, rather than regeneration failure.

Distribution of modern dinocysts and pollen in the western Mediterranean Sea (Algerian margin and Gulf of Lion)

The Mediterranean Sea is generally described as an oligotrophic area where primary productivity is limited to a few coastal environments with nutrient-enriched fluvial input. However, several studies have revealed that the hydrology of the western Mediterranean has major seasonal productive patterns linked either to significant riverine input or to seasonal upwelling cells. This study aims to: i) discuss organic microfossils (i.e. pollen and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, as well as other non-pollen palynomorphs) from two different productive areas of the western Mediterranean Sea, and ii) examine the importance of the interconnections between marine and continental influences responsible for modern palynomorph distributions. Based on 25 samples from the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and Algerian Margin, this study key findings are: i) that GoL marine productivity is driven by the combination of discharge from the Rhône River and seasonal upwelling mechanisms, ii) that the strong productive pattern of the northern African coast is driven by water density front mixings and related upwelling. These two patterns are discussed in the light of major links that provide a better understanding of the signatures of marine and continental bio-indicators. Typical differences in vegetation across the north-south climate gradient in the western Mediterranean Basin are highlighted by the larger ratio of Euro-Siberian to Mediterranean pollen taxa in the northern sector. Synoptic maps also illustrate the complex interactions of environmental drivers determining the distributions of continental and marine palynomorphs in the western Mediterranean Sea.

Geochemical characteristics of Holocene loess-paleosol sequences in central Chinese Loess Plateau and their implications for East Asian monsoon evolution

The geochemical composition and magnetic susceptibility (MS) of three sections (Weinan, Jingchuan and Jingbian) in the central Chinese Loess Plateau, located along a north-south climate gradient, were analyzed at high resolution in order to reconstruct changes in weathering intensity and hence Asian monsoon evolution during the Holocene. The results show distinct differences in element composition between the loess and paleosol layer, as well as spatial differences which reflect changes in mean annual temperature and annual precipitation along the climatic gradient. The measured major element compositions, combined with the results of previous research, indicate that the provenance of the Holocene loess-paleosol sequences in the central Chinese Loess Plateau was constant over time and space. The degree of chemical weathering in the study area is relatively weak and at an intermediate weathering stage. Based on a magnetic susceptibility age model, the East Asian summer monsoon changes recorded by the loess-paleosol sequences show a distinct two-stage pattern of evolution, with a gradual increase during 13.1–8.5 ka and a gradual decrease thereafter. Comparison of the results with climate records from elsewhere indicates that the East Asian monsoon evolution was mainly controlled by changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation and ice sheets.

Niche Characterization of Shrub Functional Groups along an Atlantic-Mediterranean Gradient

The identification of the factors controlling the understory species distribution and abundance is essential to understand the ecology and dynamics of natural forests and their management response. We assess the relationships between environmental gradients and shrub functional groups distribution patterns and niche characteristics in a transitional area between the Eurosiberian and Mediterranean biogeographic regions in Northern Spain. Here, 772 plots from the 3rd Spanish National Forest Inventory were used. Shrub functional groups respond to the same complex environmental gradients as trees, i.e., the north-south climatic gradient and a slope gradient. Unimodal response curves of shrub functional groups and families dominate along both gradients, providing evidence of successful functional turnover. Similar to tree species, the niche location of functionally related shrubs is close. Functional groups occupying environments with sharp contrast or transitional environments have the broadest niches, whereas those specialized functional groups occupying localized habitats showed the narrowest niches. The knowledge of shrub species distributions and niche characteristics along complex environmental gradients will improve our ability to discuss potential conservation management goals or threats due to land-use changes and future climate change.

Causation and mechanism of magnetic susceptibility trend in Upper Miocene–Pliocene red clay deposits of the eastern Chinese Loess Plateau

The Upper Miocene–Pliocene red clay deposits of the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP), like the overlying Quaternary loess, have recorded abundant paleoclimatic evolution information. In this study, we found that the variation in the magnetic susceptibility of seven sections across a north–south climate gradient in the eastern CLP exhibited an oscillatory upward trend. Prior to this research, much less was known about the causation and mechanism of this trend. Among the seven sections, the Jiaxian and Duanjiapo sections are located in the northernmost and southernmost of the climatic gradient, respectively. These representative sections were therefore selected to investigate the causation and mechanism of the aforementioned trend using magnetic measurements. The results were as follows. (1) The absolute and relative content of fine-grained ferrimagnetic minerals displayed an oscillatory upward increasing trend in both of the red clay sequences, which was the primary reason for the susceptibility increase in fluctuations. (2) The absolute content of antiferrimagnetic minerals was nearly equivalent in each red clay sequence. (3) Based on the combination of the results of present study and previous study findings, we found that the weathering and pedogenesis intensity of the red clay sequence showed an oscillatory upward trend during 7–2.6 Ma, which was closely linked with the strengthened East Asian summer monsoon in oscillations. These findings are probably the main cause for the oscillatory upward increasing fine-grained ferrimagnetic minerals in Upper Miocene–Pliocene red clay sequence. Further, this is likely the mechanism for the oscillatory upward increase of χ in the red clay sequence.

Parkia biglobosa (Nere)-A threatened useful tree species: Directory of sanitary constraints according to north-south climatic gradient in Mali

Parkia biglobosa, a multi-purposes species offers food, medicine and income to rural populations. This species is facing several constraints mainly aged populations, weak natural regeneration, and reduction of tree densities. A study, was undertaken in three sites from three agro-climatic zones according to the north-south climatic gradient in southern Mali, to assess dendrometric characteristics of Parkia biglobosa trees. Permanent plots of 0.25 ha each were installed in fields and fallows with three replications in each stand within each site. Adult trees in the plots were monitored, measured and also assessed for sanitary constraints. Several sanitary constraints were encountered and classified into six categories (from attacks on trunks and gross branches to damages on fruits and general attacks, infestations and damages due to wood-boring insects, human beings and other abiotic factors). Damages like those with symptoms of dieback or staghead disease pose a serious threat for production, productivity and survival of the species. Concrete actions are necessary like sanitary diagnostic at the level of the distribution area of the species in Mali, followed by identifying real cause of damages and seeking for appropriate solutions, sensitizing and training farmers, implementing a national program of regeneration of the species by planting and/or by promoting Assisted Natural Regeneration (ANR) approach.

Climatic significance of the stable carbon isotopic composition of surface soils in northern Iran and its application to an Early Pleistocene loess section

The stable carbon isotopic composition of bulk organic matter (δ13Corg) in paleosols has been widely used as a proxy indicator for reconstructing past vegetation and climate. Previous studies generally show a negative correlation between the δ13Corg values of modern C3 plants and surface soils under C3 plant-dominated ecosystems and mean annual precipitation (MAP). However, the relationship between δ13Corg and MAP varies among different climatic regimes, resulting in uncertainties in paleo-precipitation reconstructions. In this study, we analyzed the δ13Corg values of surface soil samples collected along a north-south climatic gradient in northern Iran, in the western part of arid central Asia (ACA). Our aims were to explore the relationship between surface soil δ13Corg values and climatic factors; to use it to develop a transfer function for ACA; and then to apply the transfer function to a well-dated loess-paleosol sequence (AB1) to reconstruct early Pleistocene (2.4–1.8 Ma) MAP in northern Iran. The results show that: (1) the δ13Corg values of 44 surface soil samples range from −27.56‰ to −23.61‰, with an average of −25.77‰, indicating that the modern natural ecosystem in northern Iran is dominated by C3 vegetation; (2) The δ13Corg values of the surface soil samples are strongly negatively correlated with MAP (y = −0.0079x − 22.8418, R2 = 0.4419, p < 0.001), with a coefficient of −0.79‰/100 mm. We infer that the effects of mean annual temperature (MAT) and elevation on the relationship are minimal; (3) Reconstructed early Pleistocene MAP in northern Iran was ∼649 mm, much wetter than the present day (∼331 mm); (4) The loess δ13Corg values from ACA exhibit similar trends to records from monsoonal Asia, suggesting a similar history of Quaternary climate change between ACA and monsoonal Asia, which is likely related to the growth and decay of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Disaggregation of SMOS soil moisture over West Africa using the Temperature and Vegetation Dryness Index based on SEVIRI land surface parameters

The overarching objective of this study was to produce a disaggregated SMOS Soil Moisture (SM) product using land surface parameters from a geostationary satellite in a region covering a diverse range of ecosystem types. SEVIRI data at 15min temporal resolution were used to derive the Temperature and Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) that served as SM proxy within the disaggregation process. West Africa (3°N 26°W; 28°N 26°E) was selected as a case study as it presents both an important North-South climate gradient and a diverse range of ecosystem types. The main challenge was to set up a methodology applicable over a large area that overcomes the constraints of SMOS (low spatial resolution) and TVDI (requires similar atmospheric forcing and triangular shape formed when plotting morning rise temperature versus fraction of vegetation cover) in order to produce a 0.05° resolution disaggregated SMOS SM product at the sub-continental scale. Consistent cloud cover appeared as one of the main constraints for deriving TVDI, especially during the rainy season and in the southern parts of the region and a large adjustment window (105×105 SEVIRI pixels) was therefore deemed necessary. Both the original and the disaggregated SMOS SM products described well the seasonal dynamics observed at six locations of in situ observations. However, there was an overestimation in both products for sites in the humid southern regions; most likely caused by the presence of forest. Both TVDI and the associated disaggregated SM product were found to be highly sensitive to algorithm input parameters; especially for conditions of high fraction of vegetation cover. Additionally, seasonal dynamics in TVDI did not follow the seasonal patterns of SM. Still, its spatial heterogeneity was found to be a good proxy for disaggregating SMOS SM data; main river networks and spatial patterns of SM extremes (i.e. droughts and floods) not seen in the original SMOS SM product were revealed in the disaggregated SM product for a test case of July–September 2012. The disaggregation methodology thereby successfully increased the spatial resolution of SMOS SM, with potential application for local drought/flood monitoring of importance for the livelihood of the population of West Africa.

Climate drives plant-pollinator interactions even along small-scale climate gradients: the case of the Aegean.

Plant-pollinator network structure is the outcome of ecological and evolutionary processes, and although the importance of environmental factors is beyond doubt, our knowledge of how abiotic factors (e.g. climate) shape plant-pollinator networks remains limited. This knowledge gap is critical, as climate change poses a major threat to ecosystems, especially in the Mediterranean. This study focuses on one of the hottest parts of the Mediterranean Basin, the Aegean Archipelago, Greece, and examines how climate affects species richness and network properties (e.g. nestedness, modularity and specialisation) - either directly or indirectly through species richness. We sampled systematically 39 local plant-pollinator networks on eight islands along a north-south climate gradient in the Aegean. All plant-pollinator material used in the analyses was collected in 2012 and identified to species level. Aspects of climate used in the models were expressed as average conditions (mean temperature and annual precipitation) or as seasonal variability (isothermality and temperature seasonality). Structural properties of plant-pollinator networks were found to be strongly associated with species richness, which was in turn affected by climate, implying that pollination network structure is driven indirectly by climate. In addition, climate had a direct effect on network structure, especially on modularity and specialisation. Different aspects of climate affected network properties in different ways. We highlight that even in a relatively narrow latitudinal gradient, such as within the Aegean Sea region, climate constitutes a significant driver of plant-pollinator interactions.

Diversity of nematophagous fungi in Moroccan olive nurseries: Highlighting prey-predator interactions and efficient strains against root-knot nematodes

Plant-parasitic nematodes are major pests in agriculture. Microbial antagonists such as nematophagous fungi are of great interest for developing alternative biocontrol strategies to replace nematicide use. This study aims to isolate, identify and assess the diversity and the in vitro predatory activity of nematophagous fungi from various olive nurseries in Morocco. A total of 305 soil samples were collected in 25 nurseries in Moroccan olive-producing areas (Jbala, Guerouane, Haouz and Souss). Seventy-three pure fungal strains from nematophagous fungi were recovered from nursery substrates infested with root-knot nematodes. Diversity indices showed that fungi were more numerous in southern regions, whereas fungal communities were more numerically alike in northern regions, partly depending on the occurrence of root-knot nematodes. One fungal strain, Talaromyces assiutensis, killed all Meloidogyne javanica juveniles during in vitro predation tests. Orbiliaceae (Arthrobotrys spp., Drechslerella brochopaga, Monacrosporium spp.) trapped 50 to 80% of juveniles. Purpureocillium and Trichoderma species killed 30 to 50% of juveniles. The diversity of nematophagous communities could be affected by the north-south climate gradient of Morocco, by their nematode prey expansion, and, to a lesser extent, by the habitat origin of the substrates used. Talaromyces assiutensis was the most efficient nematophagous species against M. javanica. The use of native nematophagous fungi is a promising alternative strategy for nematode control in olive nurseries and to prevent nematode introduction into olive orchards.

Utilization of the SAVANNA model to analyze future patterns of vegetation cover in Kruger National Park under changing climate

Within southern Africa's savanna ecosystems, woody and herbaceous species have differing growth characteristics that allow a tenuous co-existance. The high dependence of humans on the landscape, through agricultural production, tourism, and natural resource extraction makes understanding savanna vegetation dynamics essential. Studies analyzing resilience of savannas suggest potential state changes in vegetation structure from continuous grasslands with sporadic woody cover to less biologically productive landscapes. One of the biggest questions in this landscape is the impact of climate change. The spatially explicit SAVANNA model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on vegetation cover across Kruger National Park’s (KNP) main land system classifications (Satara, Skukuza, Letaba, and Phalaborwa). Manipulating climate inputs and management regimes allowed us to analyze the resilience of savanna vegetation under multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Trends in future climate indicate an increase in temperatures greater than 1.0°Celsius and a slight decrease in precipitation by 2080. Model results indicate a long-term decrease in multiple size classes of vegetation across all the four land systems. However, the model runs show differing response to climate change between the woody and herbaceous cover types. Spatial trends across the park follow closely with the north-south climate gradient. The most spatially distinct land system was Skukuza, which exhibited some of the highest initial net primary production (NPP) values and also the greatest decreases in NPP into the future. While this region is projected to lose large proportions of its herbaceous and shrub vegetation it is projected to increase in tree green leaf, mostly related to increasing fine leaf vegetation (Acacia sp.). The northern land systems were already dominated by mopane, but under all model scenarios mopane will increase in Letaba and Phalaborwa. This mopane increase will offset the loss of herbaceous and shrub vegetation, resulting in little to no decrease in NPP across time for these land systems. This work illustrates that landscape resilience is not only impacted by the severity of changing climate but the degree to which we manage such systems.

Performance of agro-climate indices and wheat grain yield in a changing climate

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 69:143-154 (2016) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01400 Performance of agro-climate indices and wheat grain yield in a changing climate Qunying Luo* Plant Functional Biology and Climate Change Cluster, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney 2007, Australia *Corresponding author: luo.qunying122@gmail.com ABSTRACT: This study aimed to assess the performance of 8 agro-climate indices and wheat yield in 2030 and 2050 at 3 locations (Moree, Dubbo and Wagga Wagga) on a north-south climatic gradient in eastern New South Wales, Australia, by coupling downscaled outputs of 4 climate models with a mechanistic wheat model. These locations represent the transition of grain production systems from those with summer-dominant to those with winter-dominant rainfall. Simulation showed (1) ambiguous results in the frequency changes of frost occurrence across locations, phenophases, study period and sowing times; (2) a substantial increase in the frequency of heat stress during the flowering period across sowing times, study periods and locations; (3) a decrease in pre- and post-flowering rainfall in most cases; (4) no change in soil water deficit (SWD) in 2030 in 31 out of 42 cases (the combination of 7 sowings, 2 phenophases and 3 locations) and a decrease (by 0.2) or no change in SWD in 2050 in 18 out of 42 cases; and (5) a decrease, increase, or absence of change in wheat yield depending on locations, with sowing times in 2030 increasing more or decreasing less. Changes in wheat grain yield reflected the changing patterns of agro-climate indices. The concurrent occurrence of heat stress and terminal drought at wheat reproductive stages will pose significant challenges for sustainable development of the wheat industry in the future. KEY WORDS: Wheat · Climate change · Frost risk · Heat stress · Soil water deficit · Flowering · Grain filling Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Luo Q (2016) Performance of agro-climate indices and wheat grain yield in a changing climate. Clim Res 69:143-154. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01400 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 69, No. 2. Online publication date: June 27, 2016 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2016 Inter-Research.

A Dynamic Vegetation Senescence Indicator for Near-Real-Time Desert Locust Habitat Monitoring with MODIS

Desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria) represent a major threat for agro-pastoral resources and food security over almost 30 million km2 from northern Africa to the Arabian peninsula and India. Given the differential food preferences of this insect pest and the extent and remoteness of the their distribution area, near-real-time remotely-sensed information on potential habitats support control operations by narrowing down field surveys to areas favorable for their development and prone to gregarization and outbreaks. The development of dynamic greenness maps, which detect the onset of photosynthetic vegetation, allowed national control centers to identify potential habitats to survey, as locusts prefer green and fresh vegetation. Their successful integration into the daily control operations led to a new need: the near-real-time identification of the onset of dryness, a synonym for the loss of habitat attractiveness, likely to be abandoned by locusts. The timely availability of this information would enable control centers to focus their surveys on areas more prone to gregarization, leading to more efficiency in the allocation of resources and in decision making. In this context, this work developed an original method to detect in near-real-time the onset of vegetation senescence. The design of the detection relies on the temporal behavior of two indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, depending on the green vegetation, and the Normalized Difference Tillage Index, sensitive to both green and dry vegetation. The method is demonstrated in Mauritania, an ever-affected country, with 10-day MODIS mean composites for the years 2010 and 2011. The discrimination performance of three classes (“growth”, “density reduction” and “drying”) were analyzed for three classification methods: maximum likelihood (61.4% of overall accuracy), decision tree (71.5%) and support vector machine (72.3%). The classification accuracy is heterogeneous in both time and space and is affected by several factors, such as vegetation density, the north-south climatic gradient and the relief. Smoothing the vegetation time series resulted in an increase of the overall accuracy of about 5% at the expense of a loss in timeliness of ten days. To simulate near-real-time monitoring conditions, the decision tree was applied to the decade of 2010. Overall, the seasonal vegetation cycle appeared clear and consistent. The results obtained pave the way for an operational implementation of the senescence dynamic mapping and, consequently, to further strengthen the capacity of the locust control management.

Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18months along a 520km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3°C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual responses to warming.