North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Research Articles

The combined effects of predation, fishing, and ocean productivity on salmon species targeted by marine mammals in the northeast Pacific.

Along the northeast Pacific coast, the salmon-eating southern resident killer whale population (SRKW, Orcinus orca) have been at very low levels since the 1970s. Previous research have suggested that reduction in food availability, especially of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), could be the main limiting factor for the SRKW population. Using the ecosystem modelling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), this study evaluated if the decline of the Pacific salmon populations between 1979 and 2020 may have been impacted by a combination of factors, including marine mammal predation, fishing activities, and climatic patterns. We found that the total mortality of most Chinook salmon populations has been relatively stable for all mature returning fish despite strong reduction in fishing mortality since the 1990s. This mortality pattern was mainly driven by pinnipeds, with increases in predation between 1979 and 2020 mortality ranging by factors of 1.8 to 8.5 across the different Chinook salmon population groups. The predation mortality on fall-run Chinook salmon smolts originating from the Salish Sea increased 4.6 times from 1979 to 2020, whereas the predation mortality on coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) smolts increased by a factor of 7.3. The model also revealed that the north Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO) was the most important large-scale climatic index affecting the stock productivity of Chinook salmon populations from California to northern British Columbia. Overall, the model provided evidence that multiple factors may have affected Chinook salmon populations between 1979 and 2020, and suggested that predation mortality by marine mammals could be an important driver of salmon population declines during that time.

Remote Estimates of Sea Surface Nitrate and Its Trends From Ocean Color in the Northwest Pacific

AbstractSea surface nitrate (SSN) plays an important role in assessing new production and phytoplankton growth in the ocean, yet it has been challenging to estimate SSN from satellites due to its complex and varying relationship with different environmental proxies. The different SSN trends in the northwest Pacific reported in previous studies call for more detailed research to examine the interannual variabilities in SSN. We addressed this problem by developing a stacking‐random‐forest based algorithm for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). It allows estimating SSN from daily sea surface temperature (SST) and Chlorophyll‐a concentration (Chl) at a spatial resolution of 4 km. For SSN ranging between 0.0005 and 25.88 μmol/kg (N = 3,452), the model had a root mean square difference of 1.34 μmol/kg (5.3%) and coefficient of determination of 0.92. Further independent validation and sensitivity tests demonstrated the validity of the algorithm in retrieving SSN. Using this novel data record, for the first time, we investigated the SSN interannual variabilities and trends from MODIS. Overall, the SSN showed a weak decreasing trend of −0.01 ± 0.007 μmol kg−1 yr−1 (p < 0.05) in the northwest Pacific in 2002–2020, associated with an increasing trend in SST (0.03 ± 0.01˚C yr−1 at p < 0.05) and insignificant trend (0.001 ± 0.001 mg m−3 yr−1 at p > 0.05) in Chl. The interannual variabilities of SSN were significantly correlated with the environmental proxies (SST, Chl) and the climate indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation). The SSN trends can be further restricted with more data available.

Impact of climate variability on moonfish (Mene maculata) catch rate in the waters off southwestern Taiwan

AbstractA commercially significant small coastal forage fish, moonfish (Mene maculata), accounts for almost 98% of Taiwanese purse seine capture, primarily in the southwestern Taiwan region. Research indicates that climate indices affect coastal fish catch and dispersal, while the link between moonfish and climatic variability in this region is still unclear. This study found that the delayed period of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) affect moonfish distribution and catch rates off southwestern Taiwan. Understudied are the environmental factors connected to these oscillations and their delayed consequences on moonfish catch rates. We focussed on Taiwan purse seiner capture rates (catch per unit effort or CPUE) of moonfish in southwestern Taiwan from 2014 to 2020 and delayed oscillation occurrences up to 5 years to better understand these processes. CPUE demonstrated a 3 to 4‐year positive connection (r > 0.5) with NPGO, NPO and PDO. The region's moonfish catch rates were most affected by NPGO with a 4‐year lag, followed by a 3‐year lag of PDO and lastly a 4‐year lag of NPO, according to the results of generalized additive models (GAMs). All the three oscillations had the greatest impact on moonfish catchability when a lag of >2 years was present. Between 2014 and 2020, moonfish CPUE fluctuated, peaking in 2019. The climatic parameters that affect moonfish in southwestern Taiwan and the Taiwanese purse seine fisheries catches are shown by this study.

Modeling of swordtip squid (Uroteuthis edulis) monthly habitat preference using remote sensing environmental data and climate indices

Understanding the spatial arrangement of species in maritime settings necessitates the study of oceanography. Hence, doing a study on the correlation between oceanography and species dispersion is imperative, considering the impacts of global climate change. The study used a generalized additive modeling approach to analyze the influence of oceanographic conditions on the distribution of swordtip squid in northeastern Taiwan, integrating fishing data, climatic oscillation and oceanography. Among seven oceanographic characteristics, bottom sea temperature (SSTB), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface chlorophyll (SSC), and sea surface temperature (SST) showed significant influence in generalized additive model (GAM) analysis (combined deviance explained: 40.30%). The monthly catch rate of swordtip squid is influenced by six climatic oscillations, with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation having the most significant impact, accounting for 31% of the distribution, followed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation at 10.8% and the Western Pacific Oscillation at 6.05%. From 2015 to 2019, the main areas for squid fishing were situated in the northeastern waters of Taiwan, precisely within the geographical coordinates of 25°N to 28°N and 121.5°E to 125°E. This study provides crucial insights for managing swordtip squid fisheries in Taiwan's northwest waters, highlighting the importance of incorporating oceanographic conditions relating to climate change information into decision-making to protect global ocean fisheries and their dependent communities.

Odontocete detections are linked to oceanographic conditions in the Hawaiian Archipelago

Understanding environmental drivers of species’ behavior is key for successful conservation. Within cetacean research, studies focused on understanding such drivers often consider local conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature), but rarely include large-scale, long-term parameters such as climate indices. Here we make use of long-term passive acoustic monitoring data to examine relationships between eight classes of toothed whales and climate indices, specifically El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, as well as local surface conditions (temperature, salinity, sea surface height) at two sites in the Hawaiian Archipelago. We find that El Niño Southern Oscillation most influenced cetacean detections at monitored sites. In many cases, detection patterns matched well with combinations of one or more climate indices and surface conditions. Our results highlight the importance of considering climate indices in efforts to understand relationships between marine top predators and environmental conditions.

The Satellite‐Observed Linkages Between Large‐Scale Climate Fluctuations and Mesoscale Eddy Movements in the North Pacific

AbstractThe North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation are climate fluctuations in the Pacific. Mesoscale eddies dominate the ocean kinetic energy spectrum. By analyzing the altimetry data, a close linkage between these climate fluctuations and eddy propagation speed is found. Propagation speeds of both cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies in the regions of 10° ∼ 20°N, 120°–180°E and 35° ∼ 45°N, 160°E−160°W are faster in the NPGO negative phase than positive phase, while those in the area of 25° ∼ 35°N, 150°E−170°W are opposite. These differences between positive and negative phases are the response of large‐scale circulation modulated by NPGO. When these climate fluctuations support the same westward/eastward anomaly of circulation, the eddies can propagate much faster/slower than that only considering NPGO. Causality analysis verifies that climate fluctuations can have strong influences on eddy movement. These climate fluctuations can affect the water mass, heat and salt transport by eddy advection.

Decadal changes in rapid intensification of western North Pacific tropical cyclones modulated by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

This study investigates the modulation of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) on decadal timescales. There is a significant inverse relationship between basinwide RI numbers during July–November and the simultaneous NPGO index from 1970 to 2021. During the positive NPGO phase, suppressed RI occurs over almost the entire WNP, with a distinctly different spatial distribution compared to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation-driven pattern of RI modulation. RI occurrence is significantly reduced over the eastern Philippine Sea (10°–25°N, 140°–155°E). This is primarily caused by enhanced negative low-level vorticity, which can be linked to the horizontal extent of the anomalous low-level anticyclone. By comparison, over the western Philippine Sea (10°–25°N, 125°–140°E), there are only weak RI occurrence changes due to offsetting influences of increased mid-level humidity and decreased low-level vorticity.

Temporal Variability of Global Surface Eddy Diffusivities: Estimates and Machine Learning Prediction

Abstract Mesoscale eddies, ubiquitous in the global ocean, play a key role in the climate system by stirring and mixing key tracers. Estimating, understanding, and predicting eddy diffusivity is of great significance for designing suitable eddy parameterization schemes for coarse-resolution climate models. This is because climate model results are sensitive to the choice of eddy diffusivity magnitudes. Using 24-yr satellite altimeter data and a Lagrangian approach, we estimate time-dependent global surface cross-stream eddy diffusivities. We found that eddy diffusivity has nonnegligible temporal variability, and the regionally averaged eddy diffusivity is significantly correlated with the climate indices, including the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and dipole mode index. We also found that, compared to the suppressed mixing length theory, random forest (RF) is more effective in capturing the temporal variability of regionally averaged eddy diffusivity. Our results indicate the need for using time-dependent eddy mixing coefficients in climate models and demonstrate the advantage of RF in predicting mixing temporal variability. Significance Statement Mixing induced by ocean eddies can greatly modulate the ocean circulation and climate variability. Steady eddy mixing coefficients are often specified in coarse-resolution climate models. However, using satellite observations, we show that the eddy mixing rate has significant temporal variability at the global ocean surface. The regional temporal variability of eddy mixing is linked with large-scale climate variability (e.g., North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation). We found that random forest, a user-friendly machine learning algorithm, is a better tool to predict the mixing temporal variability than the conventional mixing theory. This study suggests the possibility of improving climate model performance by using time-dependent eddy mixing coefficients inferred from machine learning methods.

Causal Forcing Analysis on the Low-Frequency Variations of Eddy Kinetic Energy in the Kuroshio Extension Region

Abstract The eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region may be affected by two factors: EKE in the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) region and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Previous studies reported that the Kuroshio path variations south of Japan may affect the low-frequency variability of the KE jet and related EKE, but the linear correlation between these phenomena derived from long time series is low and not significant, implying that the linkage between EKE in the KLM and KE regions is still unclear. Besides, whether NPGO has a causal effect on the KE EKE remains under debate. In this study, we investigate the causal forcing of the KLM EKE and NPGO on the KE EKE using the convergent cross mapping (CCM) approach based on satellite sea surface height observations. The analysis shows that the KLM EKE affects the EKE only in the KE upstream area (west of 146°E), with no significant causal effect on the EKE in the downstream area; the NPGO plays, instead, a remarkable role on the EKE in both areas. The effect of the KLM EKE on the KE EKE is found to depend on the Kuroshio latitudinal position over the Izu Ridge. Changes in the KLM EKE affect the downstream advection of eddies and induce changes in the Kuroshio position over the ridge, which cause different EKE levels in the KE upstream region. The NPGO affects the KE EKE through the westward propagation of sea surface height anomalies remotely forced by wind stress anomalies associated with the North Pacific Oscillation.

Environmental and ecological changes influence lifetime trends of reproduction, stress, and stable isotopes reconstructed from female yelloweye rockfish opercula

Abstract Climate change threatens fisheries health through changing ecosystem dynamics; however, the impacts on the physiology and ecology of commercial fish populations are unclear. Here, annually deposited growth increments of female yelloweye rockfish (Sebastes ruberrimus) opercula collected in the Gulf of Alaska were used to successfully reconstruct lifetime (∼1-year resolution) steroid hormone, stable isotope, spawning, and stress data. We assessed how hormone profiles, spawning and distress frequencies related to sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a concentrations as well as climate indices. Further, we assessed whether incorporating indicators of foraging depth and diet, stable isotope values (ẟ13C and ẟ15N), would improve model interpretations. Progesterone and estradiol concentrations decreased with increasing SST, suggesting that increasing SSTs may negatively impact juvenile and subadult females’ reproductive development. Spawning frequency was positively linked to changes in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index, potentially timed with favorable conditions for larval survival. This was supported by juveniles having a lower probability of a distress event during positive NPGO years compared to negative NPGO years. While relationships among environmental data and yelloweye rockfish physiology were weak, this study provides insight into the environmental impacts on the lifetime reproduction and stress of a commercially important teleost species.

Interannual and decadal variations of the Kuroshio axis in the East China Sea

Much work has been focused on the variability and climatic effect of the Kuroshio Extension, but little focus on the Kuroshio variation in the East China Sea(ECS). This study, investigates the interannual and decadal migrations of Kuroshio axis(KA) in the ECS and its relationships to large-scale climate signals. On interannual timescale, variability of the KA in the ECS is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The shifting of the main axis in ECS presents a dipolar pattern with the offshore (onshore) shift of the south (north) part KA in ECS under the El Niño events and onshore (offshore) shift under the La Niña events. The interannual variation (IVAR) is modulated dominantly by wind stress curl (WSC) and surface relative vorticity advection associated with the ENSO. On the decadal timescale, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) could cause the WSC and relative vorticity (RV) anomalies, and in turn modulates the fluctuation of KA. The PDO is the main factor and the NPGO is secondary factor for the decadal variation (DVAR) of the KA in ECS.

Coherence among Oregon Coast coho salmon populations highlights increasing relative importance of marine conditions for productivity

AbstractAnadromous fishes, such as Pacific salmon, spend portions of their life cycle in freshwater and marine systems, thus rendering them susceptible to a variety of natural and anthropogenic stressors. These stressors operate at different spatiotemporal scales, whereby freshwater conditions are more likely to impact single populations or subpopulations, while marine conditions are more likely to act on entire evolutionarily significant units (ESUs). Coherence in population parameters like survival and productivity can therefore serve as an indicator of relative influence. The goal of this study was to elucidate scale‐dependent shifts in Oregon Coast coho salmon productivity. We used a multivariate state‐space approach to analyze almost 60 years of stock‐recruitment data for the Oregon Coast ESU. Analyses were conducted separately for time periods prior to and after 1990 to account for improvements in abundance estimation methods and significant changes in conservation and management strategies. Prior to 1990, productivity declined for most Oregon Coast populations, especially through the 1980s. From 1990–onward, coherence increased, and trends tracked closely with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). The latter period is associated with reductions in harvest rates and hatchery production such that the relative influence of the marine environment may have grown more apparent following the removal of these stressors. Furthermore, the link between productivity and NPGO is consistent with trends observed for several other Pacific salmon ESUs. If Oregon Coast coho salmon populations become more synchronous, managers can expect to face new challenges driven by reductions in the population portfolio effect and increasingly variable marine conditions due to climate change.

Environmental and ecological drivers of harmful algal blooms revealed by automated underwater microscopy

AbstractIn recent years, harmful algal blooms (HABs) have increased in their severity and extent in many parts of the world and pose serious threats to local aquaculture, fisheries, and public health. In many cases, the mechanisms triggering and regulating HAB events remain poorly understood. Using underwater microscopy and Residual Neural Network (ResNet‐18) to taxonomically classify imaged organisms, we developed a daily abundance record of four potentially harmful algae (Akashiwo sanguinea, Chattonella spp., Dinophysis spp., and Lingulodinium polyedra) and major grazer groups (ciliates, copepod nauplii, and copepods) from August 2017 to November 2020 at Scripps Institution of Oceanography pier, a coastal location in the Southern California Bight. Random Forest algorithms were used to identify the optimal combination of environmental and ecological variables that produced the most accurate abundance predictions for each taxon. We developed models with high prediction accuracy for A. sanguinea (), Chattonella spp. (), and L. polyedra (), whereas models for Dinophysis spp. showed lower prediction accuracy (). Offshore nutricline depth and indices describing climate variability, including El Niño Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, that influence regional‐scale ocean circulation patterns and environmental conditions, were key predictor variables for these HAB taxa. These metrics of regional‐scale processes were generally better predictors of HAB taxa abundances at this coastal location than the in situ environmental measurements. Ciliate abundance was an important predictor of Chattonella and Dinophysis spp., but not of A. sanguinea and L. polyedra. Our findings indicate that combining regional and local environmental factors with microzooplankton populations dynamics can improve real‐time HAB abundance forecasts.

Environmental drivers of demography and potential factors limiting the recovery of an endangered marine top predator

AbstractUnderstanding what drives changes in wildlife demography is fundamental to the conservation and management of depleted or declining populations, though making inference about the intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence survival and reproduction remains challenging. Here we use mark–resight data from 2000 to 2018 to examine the effects of environmental variability on age‐specific survival and natality for the endangered western distinct population segment (wDPS) of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska, USA. Though this population has been studied extensively over the last four decades, the causes of divergent abundance trends that have been observed across the wDPS range remain unknown. We developed a Bayesian multievent mark–resight model that accounts for female reproductive state uncertainty. Annual survival probabilities for male pups (0.44; 0.36–0.53), female yearlings (0.63; 0.49–0.73), and male yearlings (0.62; 0.51–0.71) born in the western portion of the wDPS range, estimated here for the first time, were lower than those in the eastern portion of the wDPS range, estimated as: male pups (0.69; 0.65–0.74), female yearlings (0.76; 0.71–0.81), and male yearlings (0.71; 0.65–0.78). There was a higher proportion of young female breeders in the western portion of the range, but overall natality was lower (0.69; 0.47–0.96) than in the eastern portion of the range (0.80; 0.74–0.84). Additionally, pup mass had a positive effect on pup survival in the eastern portion of the range and a negative effect in the western portion of the range, potentially due to earlier weaning of heavier pups. Local‐ and basin‐scale oceanographic features such as the Aleutian Low, the Arctic Oscillation Index, the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, chlorophyll concentration, upwelling, and wind in certain seasons were correlated with vital rates. However, drawing strong inferences from these correlations is challenging given that relationships between ocean conditions and an adaptive top predator in a dynamic ecosystem are exceedingly complex. This study provides the first demographic rate estimates for the western portion of the range where abundance estimates continue to decline. These results will advance efforts to identify factors driving regionally divergent abundance trends, with implications for population‐level responses to future climate variability.

Understanding the impact of environmental variability and fisheries on the red sea urchin population in Baja California

IntroductionThe red sea urchin fishery is one of the most important fisheries in Baja California and the only urchin fishery in México; yet little is known on understanding how local, regional, and oceanic environmental variability may affect red sea urchin populations. MethodsWe analyzed how food availability, predator abundance and environmental variability could affect red sea urchin populations developing generalized linear models under different temperature conditions: Pre-heat wave, heat wave, and post–heatwave, including sites where sea surface temperature was above, below, and on average. Models included: a) biological variables: Macrocystis pyrifera (kelp) biomass, red sea urchin (Mesocentrotus franciscanus) density, sheephead (Semicossyphus pulcher), kelp bass (Paralabrax clathratus) and spiny lobster (Panulirus interruptus) catches, and b) oceanographic variables: sea surface temperature, wave power, upwelling index, multivariate El Niño index and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation index. ResultsBetween 65 and 82% of the variability observed in red sea urchin populations was explained by different combinations of variables, depending on the thermal condition analyzed. We observed that local environmental variability, such as food availability and predator harvest are highly important factors in determining red sea urchin population changes, compared to regional and oceanic scale variables such as upwelling, El Niño, or the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. Results show that the relative importance of these variables changed depending on the spatial and temporal scale being analyzed, meaning that under “normal or average” conditions one set of variables is important, compared to extreme environmental conditions such as El Niño or “the Blob” when a different set of variables explained the observed variability. Urchin predators’ catches were correlated with urchin density during the pre-heatwave scenario, suggesting that under “average temperature” conditions the effect of fishing on predators, and consequently on urchin density is higher than local temperature, the most important variable during warm conditions. DiscussionThis study suggests that in Baja California, red sea urchin harvest has become the most important red sea urchin population control, so efforts should be encouraged and supported by state and federal agencies to promote more resilient ecosystems in the face of environmental uncertainty. Improving management of the commercial species that inhabit kelp forest, could yield benefits for the entire ecosystem, fishers, and the red sea urchin population in Mexico.

Effects of oceanography on North Pacific armorhead recruitment in the Emperor Seamounts

AbstractThe North Pacific armorhead (NPA), Pentaceros wheeleri, is thought to exhibit an extended post‐spawning epipelagic phase in which larvae disperse to the northeast Pacific Ocean. Current understanding of juvenile distribution, development, and mechanisms that drive recruitment variation, however, remains largely incomplete. The objective of this study was to compare a time series of NPA recruitment to established climate indices and to environmental covariates to explore drivers of the NPA life cycle. Additionally, this work investigates potential larval NPA transport pathways and their positional relationships to the proposed northeastern nursery grounds. Using Lagrangian particle tracking, trajectories of passive larvae were simulated at depths of 0 and 15 m for 18 years (2001–2018) from the Southern Emperor‐Northern Hawaiian Ridge (SE‐NHR) natal habitat. Dispersal distances and particle end positions were examined for their potential relationships with recruitment. Sea surface temperature and net primary productivity were evaluated as predictor variables using generalized additive modeling. Neither regression of particle end‐point characteristics nor environmental covariates resulted in significant correlations with recruitment here, perhaps owing to data limitations surrounding the nursery zone. Particles were found to be advected largely within the North Pacific transition zone in the central north Pacific. Significant seasonal correlations were found between recruitment and the Arctic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, suggesting that NPA recruitment mechanisms respond to interannual ocean‐atmospheric climate oscillations. Better knowledge of the connections between recruitment and the environment would be valuable for stock management, and improvements for advection predictions are discussed.

Predictability and empirical dynamics of fisheries time series in the North Pacific

Previous studies have documented a strong relationship between marine ecosystems and large-scale modes of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Pacific such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. In the central and western North Pacific along the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE), the expression of these modes in SSH and SST is linked to the propagation of long oceanic Rossby waves, which extend the predictability of the climate system to ~3 years. Using a multivariate physical-biological linear inverse model (LIM) we explore the extent to which this physical predictability leads to multi-year prediction of dominant fishery indicators inferred from three datasets (i.e., estimated biomasses, landings, and catches). We find that despite the strong autocorrelation in the fish indicators, the LIM adds dynamical forecast skill beyond persistence up to 5-6 years. By performing a sensitivity analysis of the LIM forecast model, we find that two main factors are essential for extending the dynamical predictability of the fishery indicators beyond persistence. The first is the interaction of the fishery indicators with the SST/SSH of the North and tropical Pacific. The second is the empirical relationship among the fisheries time series. This latter component reflects stock-stock interactions as well as common technological and human socioeconomic factors that may influence multiple fisheries and are captured in the training of the LIM. These results suggest that empirical dynamical models and machine learning algorithms, such as the LIM, provide an alternative and promising approach for forecasting key ecological indicators beyond the skill of persistence.

How has the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation affected peak season tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific from 1965 to 2020?

The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) is an important mode of decadal variability in North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height. This study investigated the potential influence of the NPGO on spatial characteristics of peak season (July to October) tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) number over the western North Pacific (WNP) from 1965 to 2020. We show that the NPGO was the first leading empirical orthogonal function mode of North Pacific SST during the peak tropical cyclone season in that time. On a decadal time scale, the NPGO has opposite impacts on TCG in the west and east WNP. The relatively weak positive correlation west of 140° E and the strong negative correlation east of 140° E result in an overall significant negative correlation between the NPGO and WNP total TCG number (r = −0.49), which is much more robust than the relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and TCG. The critical factors of the NPGO that affect TCG are vertical motion in the west WNP and vertical wind shear (VWS) in the east WNP. The positive NPGO pattern could induce an anomalous off-equatorial vertical circulation, resulting in an upward motion and increased convective precipitation in the west WNP, favoring local TCG. The anomalous convective precipitation enhances the zonal gradient of the atmospheric heat source in the east WNP, increasing VWS. The North Pacific low-level anticyclonic and upper-level cyclonic associated with the NPGO further enhance the VWS in the east WNP and lead to the negative low-level relative vorticity, inhibiting local TCG. This study emphasizes the importance of the climate impact of the NPGO in recent decades. The findings here have significant implications for the decadal prediction of change in WNP TCG.

State of the California Current Ecosystem in 2021: Winter is coming?

In late 2020, models predicted that a strong La Niña would take place for the first time since 2013, and we assessed whether physical and biological indicators in 2021 were similar to past La Niñas in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Oceanic Niño Index indeed remained negative throughout 2021; the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Index, however, remained strongly negative. The seventh largest marine heatwave on record was unexpectedly present from April to the end of 2021; however, similar to past La Niñas, this mass of warm water mostly remained seaward of the continental shelf. As expected from past La Niñas, upwelling and chlorophyll were mostly high and sea surface temperature was low throughout the CCE; however, values were close to average south of Point Conception. Similar to past La Niñas, abundances of lipid-rich, northern copepods off Oregon increased. In northern California, unlike past La Niñas, the body size of North Pacific krill (Euphausia pacifica) was close to average. Predictably, overall krill abundance was above average in far northern California but, unexpectedly, below average south of Cape Mendocino. Off Oregon, similar to past La Niñas, larval abundances of three of six coastal species rose, while five of six southern/offshore taxa decreased in 2021. Off California, as expected based on 2020, Northern Anchovy (Engraulis mordax) were very abundant, while Pacific Sardine (Sardinops sagax) were low. Similar to past La Niñas, market squid (Doryteuthis opalescens) and young of the year (YOY) Pacific Hake (Merluccius pacificus), YOY sanddabs (Citharichthys spp.), and YOY rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) increased. Southern mesopelagic (e.g., Panama lightfish Vinciguerria lucetia, Mexican lampfish Triphoturus mexicanus) larvae decreased as expected but were still well above average, while northern mesopelagic (e.g., northern lampfish Stenobrachius leucopsarus) larvae increased but were still below average. In line with predictions, most monitored bird species had above-average reproduction in Oregon and California. California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) pup count, growth, and weight were high given the abundant Anchovy forage. The CCE entered an enduring La Niña in 2021, and assessing the responses of various ecosystem components helped articulate aspects of the system that are well understood and those that need further study.

Local and remote forcing on the interannual variations of the sedimentary δ15N in Santa Barbara Basin during the past 80 years

Sedimentary nitrogen isotope (δ15Nsed) in Santa Barbara Basin (SBB) has been mostly interpreted as the record of the eastern tropical North Pacific (ETNP) intermediate water denitrification process. Nevertheless, debate remains regarding sources and control mechanisms of δ15Nsed signal in SBB. Multi-proxy analyses including δ15Nsed, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), C/N ratio, and marine biomarkers were performed on a 46-cm sediment core (SBB-190629) collected from SBB in 2019. The core was dated with varve counting and 210Pb dating method, showing a depositional history of 1938–2019 CE with a sedimentation rate of 0.564 cm/year. The findings show that the δ15Nsed record (at ~0.25-year resolution) ranges from 6.24‰ to 7.43‰, which was affected by both local and remote forcing. The long-term variations of the SBB δ15Nsed signature show a general decreasing trend from 1940 to the late 1980s, low values during 1980~2000, and an increase afterward, which is thought to reflect changes in ETNP denitrification induced by the strength of tropical trade winds. Our results also reveal a series of abrupt annual to multiannual changes, superimposed on the long-term variation mentioned above. The SBB local δ15N signal (Δδ15NSBB) is accessed by using the deviation from the mean δ15N (Δδ15N) of SBB-190629 to subtract the Δδ15N of the ETNP. The Δδ15NSBB record compares well with redox-sensitive proxies (Re/Mo ratio and C29 stanol/stenol ratio) from the SBB bottom water and with the OCmarine content calculated based on the C/N ratio mixing model, indicating that the Δδ15NSBB is mainly controlled by bottom water denitrification, which was induced by the change of upwelling intensity and marine productivity. Since various climatic factors (e.g., El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)) have different impacts on the upwelling intensity (hence the marine productivity and denitrification) in SBB on different timescales, the influence of combined climatic factors on SBB denitrification is time dependent.