North Greenland Ice Core Project Research Articles

Aeolian dynamics at the northern edge of Deliblato (Banat) Sand Sea, Vojvodina, Serbia, at the time of the last deglaciation

Abstract The Deliblato (Banat) Sand Sea, which is one of the largest areas of аeolian sand in Europe, is located near the Iron Gate, which marks the crossing of the Danube River through the biggest gorge of this river. Here, Danubian alluvium has served as the sand source for the Banat Sand Sea, which was formed primarily through southeasterly (Košava) winds. Utilizing a multi-proxy approach, the objective of this study is to gain a better understanding of the environmental dynamics of the Banat Sand Sea. To achieve this goal, we conducted an analysis of an archive representing an approximately 20-m-thick dune formation on the northern edge of this dune field. Using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, we calculated aeolian sedimentation rates and dune ages. Sand was deposited here approximately between 17 ka and 13 ka. Magnetic susceptibility, grain size, and colorimetric analyses were interpreted in terms of local paleoenvironmental conditions. Calculated sedimentation rates (SR) indicate intensive aeolian deposition during the study period that range from 483 cm/ka to 502 cm/ka. We compared our data with regional and other European archives, as well as with climatic variations recorded in the Greenland ice core North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP).

Statistical appraisal of geothermal heat flow observations in the Arctic

Abstract. Geothermal heat flow is an important boundary condition for ice sheets, affecting, for example, basal melt rates, but for ice-covered regions, we only have sparse heat flow observations with partly high uncertainty of up to 30 m W m−2. In this study, we first investigate the agreement between such pointwise heat flow observations and solid Earth models, applying a 1D steady-state approach to perform a statistical analysis for the entire Arctic region. We find that most of the continental heat flow observations have a high reliability and agreement to solid Earth models, except a few data points, such as, for example, the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) point in central Greenland. For further testing, we perform a conditional simulation with focus on Greenland in which the local characteristics of heat flow structures can be considered. Simple kriging shows that including or excluding the less reliable NGRIP point has a large influence on the surrounding heat flow. The geostatistical analysis with the conditional simulation supports the assumption that NGRIP might not only be problematic for representing a regional feature but likely is an outlier. Basal melt estimates show that such a local spot of high heat flow results in local high basal melt rates but leads to less variation than existing geophysical models.

First occurrence of planktonic foraminiferal species Boliella adamsii as a marker for the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary in the sea around Sumba Island

The expensive cost of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry radiocarbon dating (AMS 14C), the main tool for geochronology in Late Pleistocene-Holocene paleoclimate and paleoceanography study using marine sediment cores, hinders Indonesian researchers to produce competing research outputs. The first occurrences of planktonic foraminiferal species which have been applied as Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary markers in previous Quarternary marine sediment studies in the Indonesian region need to be confirmed as these species might actually occur since the Late Pleistocene. Quantitative foraminifera determination and oxygen isotope (δ18O) analysis of planktonic foraminiferal species Globigerinoides (Gs.) ruber have been carried out in marine sediment cores ST10 (off south Sumba) and ST14 (Sumba strait). δ18O of Gs. ruber was correlated to North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) δ18O to determine the depth of the Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary (11653 BP) in core ST10 and ST14. Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary depth in core ST10 (31 cm) and ST14 (28 cm) are nearly coeval with the First occurrence (FO) of planktonic foraminifera Boliella adamsii, which at 34-35 cm depth interval in core ST10 and at 26-27 cm depth interval in core ST14. This indicated the practicality of Boliella adamsii FO as a Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary marker in the sea around Sumba Island, in case radiocarbon ages and proper planktonic foraminiferal δ18O data are not available. Future studies using a similar method in other Indonesian regions are needed to confirm the practicality of Boliella adamsii FO as a Pleistocene-Holocene Boundary marker in the Indonesian region.

Disparate energy sources for slow and fast Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles

Abstract. During the Late Pleistocene, Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) cycles triggered warming events that were as abrupt as the present-day human-induced warming. However, in the absence of a periodic forcing operating on millennial timescales, the main energy sources of DO cycles remain debated. Here, we identify the energy sources of DO cycles by applying a bispectral analysis to the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) oxygen isotope (δ18Oice) record; a 123 kyr long proxy record of air temperatures (Tair) over Greenland. For both modes of DO cyclicity – slow and fast – we detect disparate energy sources. Slow DO cycles, marked by multi-millennial periodicities in the 12.5 to 2.5 kyr bandwidth, receive energy from astronomical periodicities. Fast DO cycles, characterized by millennial periodicities in the 1.5 ± 0.5 kyr range, receive energy from centennial periodicities. We propose cryospheric and oceanic mechanisms that facilitate the transfer of energy from known sources to slow and fast DO cycles, respectively. Our findings stress the importance of understanding energy-transfer mechanisms across a broad range of timescales to explain the origins of climate cycles without primary periodic energy sources.

The Problem with the Anthropocene: Kainos, Not Anthropos

The Problem with the Anthropocene: <i>Kainos</i>, Not <i>Anthropos</i>

Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland

Abstract. During the last glacial interval, the Northern Hemisphere climate was punctuated by a series of abrupt changes between two characteristic climate regimes. The existence of stadial (cold) and interstadial (milder) periods is typically attributed to a hypothesised bistability in the glacial North Atlantic climate system, allowing for rapid transitions from the stadial to the interstadial state – the so-called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events – and more gradual yet still fairly abrupt reverse shifts. The physical mechanisms driving these regime transitions remain debated. DO events are characterised by substantial warming over Greenland and a reorganisation of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, which are evident from concomitant shifts in the δ18O ratios and dust concentration records from Greenland ice cores. Treating the combined δ18O and dust record obtained by the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) as a realisation of a two-dimensional, time-homogeneous, and Markovian stochastic process, we present a reconstruction of its underlying deterministic drift based on the leading-order terms of the Kramers–Moyal equation. The analysis reveals two basins of attraction in the two-dimensional state space that can be identified with the stadial and interstadial regimes. The drift term of the dust exhibits a double-fold bifurcation structure, while – in contrast to prevailing assumptions – the δ18O component of the drift is clearly mono-stable. This suggests that the last glacial's Greenland temperatures should not be regarded as an intrinsically bistable climate variable. Instead, the two-regime nature of the δ18O record is apparently inherited from a coupling to another bistable climate process. In contrast, the bistability evidenced in the dust drift points to the presence of two stable circulation regimes of the last glacial's Northern Hemisphere atmosphere.

The 8.2 ka event in northern Spain: timing, structure and climatic impact from a multi-proxy speleothem record

Abstract. The 8.2 ka event is regarded as the most prominent climate anomaly of the Holocene and is thought to have been triggered by a meltwater release to the North Atlantic that was of sufficient magnitude to disrupt the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It is most clearly captured in Greenland ice-core records, where it is reported as a cold and dry anomaly lasting ∼ 160 years, from 8.25 ± 0.05 until 8.09 ± 0.05 ka (Thomas et al., 2007). It is also recorded in several archives in the North Atlantic region; however, its interpreted timing, evolution and impacts vary significantly. This inconsistency is commonly attributed to poorly constrained chronologies and/or inadequately resolved time series. Here we present a high-resolution speleothem record of early Holocene palaeoclimate from El Soplao Cave in northern Spain, a region pertinent to studying the impacts of AMOC perturbations on south-western Europe. We explore the timing and impact of the 8.2 ka event on a decadal scale by coupling speleothem stable carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios, trace element ratios (Mg / Ca and Sr / Ca), and growth rate. Throughout the entire speleothem record, δ18O variability is related to changes in effective recharge. This is supported by the pattern of changes in δ13C, Mg / Ca and growth rate. The 8.2 ka event is marked as a centennial-scale negative excursion in El Soplao δ18O, starting at 8.19 ± 0.06 ka and lasting until 8.05 ± 0.05 ka, suggesting increased recharge at the time. Although this is supported by the other proxies, the amplitude of the changes is minor and largely within the realm of variability over the preceding 1000 years. Further, the shift to lower δ18O leads the other proxies, which we interpret as the imprint of the change in the isotopic composition of the moisture source, associated with the meltwater flux to the North Atlantic. A comparison with other well-dated records from south-western Europe reveals that the timing of the 8.2 ka event was synchronous, with an error-weighted mean age for the onset of 8.23 ± 0.03 and 8.10 ± 0.05 ka for the end of the event. This compares favourably with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record. The comparison also reveals that the El Soplao δ18O is structurally similar to the other archives in south-western Europe and the NGRIP ice-core record.

Towards reconstructing the Arctic atmospheric methane history over the 20th century: measurement and modelling results for the North Greenland Ice Core Project firn

Abstract. Systematic measurements of atmospheric methane (CH4) mole fractions at the northern high latitudes only began in the early 1980s. Although CH4 measurements from Greenland ice cores consistently covered the period before ∼ 1900, no reliable observational record is available for the intermediate period. We newly report a data set of trace gases from the air trapped in firn (an intermediate stage between snow and glacial ice formation) collected at the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) site in 2001. We also use a set of published firn air data at the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian ice Drilling) site. The two Arctic firn air data sets are analysed with a firn air transport model, which translates historical variations to depth profiles of trace gases in firn. We examine a variety of possible firn diffusivity profiles, using a suite of measured trace gases, and reconstruct the CH4 mole fraction by an iterative dating method. Although the reconstructions of the Arctic CH4 mole fraction before the mid-1970s still has large uncertainties (&gt; 30 ppb – parts per billion), we find a relatively narrow range of atmospheric CH4 history that is consistent with both depth profiles of NGRIP and NEEM. The atmospheric CH4 history inferred by this study is more consistent with the atmospheric CH4 scenario prepared for the NEEM firn modelling than that for the CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) experiments. Our study shows that the atmospheric CH4 scenario used for the NEEM firn modelling is considered to be the current best choice for the Arctic CH4 history, but it should not be used to tune firn air transport models until being verified by further measurements from sources such as the Arctic ice cores. Given the current difficulty in reconstructing the CH4 history with low uncertainty from the firn air data sets from Greenland, future sampling and measurements of ice cores at a high-accumulation site may be the only way to accurately reconstruct the atmospheric CH4 trend over the 20th century.

Greenland Geothermal Heat Flow Database and Map (Version 1)

Abstract. We compile and analyze all available geothermal heat flow measurements collected in and around Greenland into a new database of 419 sites and generate an accompanying spatial map. This database includes 290 sites previously reported by the International Heat Flow Commission (IHFC), for which we now standardize measurement and metadata quality. This database also includes 129 new sites, which have not been previously reported by the IHFC. These new sites consist of 88 offshore measurements and 41 onshore measurements, of which 24 are subglacial. We employ machine learning to synthesize these in situ measurements into a gridded geothermal heat flow model that is consistent across both continental and marine areas in and around Greenland. This model has a native horizontal resolution of 55 km. In comparison to five existing Greenland geothermal heat flow models, our model has the lowest mean geothermal heat flow for Greenland onshore areas. Our modeled heat flow in central North Greenland is highly sensitive to whether the NGRIP (North GReenland Ice core Project) elevated heat flow anomaly is included in the training dataset. Our model's most distinctive spatial feature is pronounced low geothermal heat flow (&lt; 40 mW m−2) across the North Atlantic Craton of southern Greenland. Crucially, our model does not show an area of elevated heat flow that might be interpreted as remnant from the Icelandic plume track. Finally, we discuss the substantial influence of paleoclimatic and other corrections on geothermal heat flow measurements in Greenland. The in situ measurement database and gridded heat flow model, as well as other supporting materials, are freely available from the GEUS Dataverse (https://doi.org/10.22008/FK2/F9P03L; Colgan and Wansing, 2021).

High-resolution aerosol concentration data from the Greenland NorthGRIP and NEEM deep ice cores

Abstract. Records of chemical impurities from ice cores enable us to reconstruct the past deposition of aerosols onto polar ice sheets and alpine glaciers. Through this they allow us to gain insight into changes of the source, transport and deposition processes that ultimately determine the deposition flux at the coring location. However, the low concentrations of the aerosol species in the ice and the resulting high risk of contamination pose a formidable analytical challenge, especially if long, continuous and highly resolved records are needed. Continuous flow analysis, CFA, the continuous melting, decontamination and analysis of ice-core samples has mostly overcome this issue and has quickly become the de facto standard to obtain high-resolution aerosol records from ice cores after its inception at the University of Bern in the mid-1990s. Here, we present continuous records of calcium (Ca2+), sodium (Na+), ammonium (NH4+), nitrate (NO3-) and electrolytic conductivity at 1 mm depth resolution from the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) and NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) ice cores produced by the Bern Continuous Flow Analysis group in the years 2000 to 2011 (Erhardt et al., 2021). Both of the records were previously used in a number of studies but were never published in full 1 mm resolution. Alongside the 1 mm datasets we provide decadal averages, a detailed description of the methods, relevant references, an assessment of the quality of the data and its usable resolution. Along the way we will also give some historical context on the development of the Bern CFA system. The data is available in full 1 mm and 10-year-averaged resolution on PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.935838, Erhardt et al., 2021)

A gradual transition into Greenland interstadial 14 in southeastern China based on a sub-decadally-resolved stalagmite record

Greenland stadials and interstadials (GS and GIS) are prominent features in ice core records of the last glacial period and are characterized by millennial-scale climate oscillations with sub-decadal- to decadal-scale hydroclimatic shifts. Over the past two decades, studies of Chinese stalagmite records have revealed corresponding Chinese Stadials/Interstadials (CS/CIS). However, the CS/CIS shifts and their corresponding forcings across the Asian monsoon region are still not fully understood. In this study, we present a 230Th-based sub-decadally-resolved stalagmite δ18O record from Xianyun Cave in southeastern China covering the period 58.2–50.8 kyr BP (before 1950 AD) and including GIS (and CIS) 16–14. We used GIS (CIS) 15.1 (peak point) and 15.2 (first point) to chronologically link the high and low-latitude records. We found that the onset of GIS 14 in our record occurred earlier than in an ice core record from Greenland and stalagmite records from northern China. This finding implies that low-latitude tropical climate likely played a key role in triggering abrupt millennial-scale events. Moreover, the transition into GIS 14 lasted 1.49 kyr in our record, which is in contrast to the abrupt temperature rise observed in NGRIP (the North Greenland Ice Core Project, 0.02 kyr). Compared with previous stalagmite records, we identified two transitional patterns into GIS 14 in monsoonal China: 1) a rapid transition in northern China and 2) a gradual transition in southeastern China. The gradual transition in our Xianyun record is analogous to a sea surface temperature (SST) record in the western tropical Pacific, highlighting a possible inherent connection between the changes in western tropical Pacific SSTs and East Asian summer monsoon variability in southeastern China. Paleoclimate records in southeastern China are therefore critical for understanding the mechanisms of abrupt millennial-scale climate events, as they can act as a bridge between high- and low-latitude records.

Reconstruction of Heliospheric Modulation Potential Based on Data on the Content of the Cosmogenic Isotope 10Be in Greenland Ice and the Extremes of Solar Activity from the End of the 14th Century

The heliospheric modulation potential was reconstructed based on data from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) on the content of the cosmogenic isotope 10Be in the Greenland ice from the end of the 14th century CE. This time interval includes global solar-activity minima, such as the Sporer (≈1460–1550 CE), Maunder (≈1645–1715 CE), and Dalton (≈1790–1830 CE) minima. The reconstruction results show that, although the duration of the Dalton minimum is small, the depth of the Maunder minimum could be comparable to the depth of the Dalton minimum. The Sporer minimum may be less deep than the Maunder minimum.

A first chronology for the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) over the Holocene and last glacial termination

Abstract. This paper provides the first chronology for the deep ice core from the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) over the Holocene and the late last glacial period. We rely mainly on volcanic events and common peak patterns recorded by dielectric profiling (DEP) and electrical conductivity measurement (ECM) for the synchronization between the EGRIP, North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) and North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice cores in Greenland. We transfer the annual-layer-counted Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) from the NGRIP core to the EGRIP ice core by means of 381 match points, typically spaced less than 50 years apart. The NEEM ice core has previously been dated in a similar way and is only included to support the match-point identification. We name our EGRIP timescale GICC05-EGRIP-1. Over the uppermost 1383.84 m, we establish a depth–age relationship dating back to 14 967 years b2k (years before the year 2000 CE). Tephra horizons provide an independent validation of our match points. In addition, we compare the ratio of the annual layer thickness between ice cores in between the match points to assess our results in view of the different ice-flow patterns and accumulation regimes of the different periods and geographical regions. For the next years, this initial timescale will be the basis for climatic reconstructions from EGRIP high-resolution proxy data sets, e.g. stable water isotopes, chemical impurity or dust records.

A high‐resolution speleothem proxy record of the Late Glacial in the European Alps: extending the NALPS19 record until the beginning of the Holocene

ABSTRACTPrevious research has shown that speleothems from the northern rim of the European Alps captured submillennial‐scale climate change during the last glacial period with exceptional sensitivity and resolution, mimicking Greenland ice‐core records. Here we extend this so‐called NALPS19 record across the Late Glacial using two stalagmites which grew continuously into the Holocene. Both specimens show the same high‐amplitude δ18O signal as Greenland ice cores down to decadal resolution. The start of the warming at the onset of the equivalent of Greenland Interstadial (GI) GI‐1e at 14.66 ± 0.18 ka agrees with the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) (14.64 ± 0.28 ka) and comprised a temperature rise of about 5–6 °C. The transition from the equivalent of GI‐1a into the equivalent of Greenland Stadial (GS) GS‐1 (broadly equivalent to the Younger Dryas) commenced at 13.02 ± 0.13 ka which is consistent with NGRIP (12.80 ± 0.26 ka) within errors. The onset of the Holocene started at 11.78 ± 0.14 ka (11.65 ± 0.10 ka at NGRIP) and involved a warming of about 4–5 °C. In contrast to δ18O, δ13C values show no response to (sub)millennial climate shifts due to strong rock‐buffering and only record a long‐term trend of soil development starting with the rapid warming at 14.7 ka.

Reconstructing oxygen deficiency in the glacial Gulf of Alaska: Combining biomarkers and trace metals as paleo-redox proxies

Marine anaerobic oxidation of ammonium (anammox) plays a central role in the nitrogen cycle of modern Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The newly developed bacteriohopanetetrol stereoisomer (BHT-x) biomarker for anammox, which is largely unaffected by early diagenesis, allows for the reconstruction of the presence and dynamics of past ODZs from the sedimentary record of continental margins. In this study, we investigate the development and dynamics of the ODZ in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) between 60 and 15 cal ka BP using records of redox sensitive trace metals (TM) and the BHT-x anammox biomarker from IODP Site U1419 (~700 m water depth). The biomarker record indicates that the ODZ in the GOA was in concert with global climate fluctuations in the late Pleistocene. Anammox was more pronounced during warmer periods and diminished during cooler periods, as indicated by correlation with the δ18O signal obtained by the North Greenland Ice core Project (NGRIP). Trace metal enrichments, however, do not match the trend in BHT-x. Systematic metal enrichments in intervals where biomarkers point to more intense water column deoxygenation are not observed. We suggest that this proxy discrepancy was caused by environmental factors, other than water column redox conditions, with opposing effects on the TM and biomarker records. Two of the most widely used redox indicators, Mo and U, are not significantly enriched throughout the sediment record at Site U1419. Site U1419 experienced some of the highest sedimentation rates (100–1000 cm ka−1) ever reported for late Pleistocene continental margin sediments, leading to a continuous and rapid upward migration of the sediment-water interface. We suggest that despite water column and seafloor oxygen depletion, significant sedimentary enrichments of these redox sensitive trace metals were prevented by a limited time for their diffusion across the sediment-water interface and subsequent enrichment as authigenic phases. Thus, depositional conditions were ideal for biomarker preservation but prevented significant authigenic trace metal accumulations. Similar discrepancies between organic and inorganic redox proxies could exist in other high sedimentation rate environments, potentially putting constraints on paleo-redox interpretations in such settings if they are based on trace metal enrichments alone.

Surface accumulation in Northern Central Greenland during the last 300 years

AbstractThe internal stratigraphy of snow and ice as imaged by ground-penetrating radar may serve as a source of information on past accumulation. This study presents results from two ground-based radar surveys conducted in Greenland in 2007 and 2015, respectively. The first survey was conducted during the traverse from the ice-core station NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) to the ice-core station NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling). The second survey was carried out during the traverse from NEEM to the ice-core station EGRIP (East Greenland Ice Core Project) and then onwards to Summit Station. The total length of the radar profiles is 1427 km. From the radar data, we retrieve the large-scale spatial variation of the accumulation rates in the interior of the ice sheet. The accumulation rates range from 0.11 to 0.26 m a−1ice equivalent with the lowest values found in the northeastern sector towards EGRIP. We find no evidence of temporal or spatial changes in accumulation rates when comparing the 150-year average accumulation rates with the 321-year average accumulation rates. Comparisons with regional climate models reveal that the models underestimate accumulation rates by up to 35% in northeastern Greenland. Our results serve as a robust baseline to detect present changes in either surface accumulation rates or patterns.

Climate variability on the Adriatic seaboard during the last glacial inception and MIS 5c from Frasassi Cave stalagmite record

A stalagmite (FR16) from Frasassi Cave, located near the Adriatic coast of the Italian peninsula, offers a 16 kyr petrographic and stable isotope record spanning from 112.8 ± 1.5 ka to 96.6 ± 1.0 ka, corresponding to the interval from marine isotope stage (MIS) 5c to MIS 5d. The physical characteristics of FR16 calcite, allowed for a thorough understanding of the processes controlling isotopic changes, because fabrics as well are controlled by the environmental parameters within the cave that reflect external climate forcing. The FR16 δ13C profile matches fabric changes where columnar fabric usually corresponds to more negative values and micrite/microsparite layers to less negative δ13C values, and with the North Greenland Ice-core Project (NGRIP) δ18O record with more negative δ13C values during interstadials GI24 and GI23. This suggests a hydrological sensitivity for the two proxies, and their variability can be linked to recharge changes. On the other hand, the response to Greenland events appears subdued in the δ18O record and the trend mimics instead the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer insolation with more negative δ18O values corresponding to the maximum insolation centred at ca. 105 ka. This behaviour can be explained by the higher sensitivity of δ18O to rainfall seasonality, moisture source and trajectories, whose combined effect attenuated the stadials/intersadials signal in the stalagmite.

Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record

The Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events, as observed in oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record, are an outstanding example of past abrupt climate transitions. Their physical cause remains debated, and previous research indicated that they are not preceded by classical early-warning signals (EWS). Subsequent research hypothesized that the DO events are caused by bifurcations of physical mechanisms operating at decadal timescales, and proposed to search for EWS in the high-frequency fluctuation levels. Here, a time series with 5-year resolution is obtained from the raw NGRIP record, and significant numbers of EWS in terms of variance and autocorrelation increases are revealed in the decadal-scale variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that the EWS are most pronounced in the 10–50-year periodicity band, confirming the above hypothesis. The DO events are hence neither directly noise-induced nor purely externally forced, which provides valuable constraints regarding potential physical causes.

Novel automated inversion algorithm for temperature reconstruction using gas isotopes from ice cores

Abstract. Greenland past temperature history can be reconstructed by forcing the output of a firn-densification and heat-diffusion model to fit multiple gas-isotope data (δ15N or δ40Ar or δ15Nexcess) extracted from ancient air in Greenland ice cores using published accumulation-rate (Acc) datasets. We present here a novel methodology to solve this inverse problem, by designing a fully automated algorithm. To demonstrate the performance of this novel approach, we begin by intentionally constructing synthetic temperature histories and associated δ15N datasets, mimicking real Holocene data that we use as “true values” (targets) to be compared to the output of the algorithm. This allows us to quantify uncertainties originating from the algorithm itself. The presented approach is completely automated and therefore minimizes the “subjective” impact of manual parameter tuning, leading to reproducible temperature estimates. In contrast to many other ice-core-based temperature reconstruction methods, the presented approach is completely independent from ice-core stable-water isotopes, providing the opportunity to validate water-isotope-based reconstructions or reconstructions where water isotopes are used together with δ15N or δ40Ar. We solve the inverse problem T(δ15N, Acc) by using a combination of a Monte Carlo based iterative approach and the analysis of remaining mismatches between modelled and target data, based on cubic-spline filtering of random numbers and the laboratory-determined temperature sensitivity for nitrogen isotopes. Additionally, the presented reconstruction approach was tested by fitting measured δ40Ar and δ15Nexcess data, which led as well to a robust agreement between modelled and measured data. The obtained final mismatches follow a symmetric standard-distribution function. For the study on synthetic data, 95 % of the mismatches compared to the synthetic target data are in an envelope between 3.0 to 6.3 permeg for δ15N and 0.23 to 0.51 K for temperature (2σ, respectively). In addition to Holocene temperature reconstructions, the fitting approach can also be used for glacial temperature reconstructions. This is shown by fitting of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) δ15N data for two Dansgaard–Oeschger events using the presented approach, leading to results comparable to other studies.

Random and externally controlled occurrences of Dansgaard–Oeschger events

Abstract. Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events constitute the most pronounced mode of centennial to millennial climate variability of the last glacial period. Since their discovery, many decades of research have been devoted to understand the origin and nature of these rapid climate shifts. In recent years, a number of studies have appeared that report emergence of DO-type variability in fully coupled general circulation models via different mechanisms. These mechanisms result in the occurrence of DO events at varying degrees of regularity, ranging from periodic to random. When examining the full sequence of DO events as captured in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) ice core record, one can observe high irregularity in the timing of individual events at any stage within the last glacial period. In addition to the prevailing irregularity, certain properties of the DO event sequence, such as the average event frequency or the relative distribution of cold versus warm periods, appear to be changing throughout the glacial. By using statistical hypothesis tests on simple event models, we investigate whether the observed event sequence may have been generated by stationary random processes or rather was strongly modulated by external factors. We find that the sequence of DO warming events is consistent with a stationary random process, whereas dividing the event sequence into warming and cooling events leads to inconsistency with two independent event processes. As we include external forcing, we find a particularly good fit to the observed DO sequence in a model where the average residence time in warm periods are controlled by global ice volume and cold periods by boreal summer insolation.