Horn Of Africa Research Articles

Ethiopia in BRICS: Motivation, Opportunities and Strategic Advantages

The article analyzes Ethiopia’s entry into the BRICS alliance, a new wave of expansion that took place in August 2023 following the alliance’s summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. The choice of Ethiopia as a new member of the BRICS format is influenced by the country’s strategic location in the Horn of Africa, which gives it importance in the context of global trade routes through the Red Sea, the special role the country plays in the continent’s diplomatic engagement, and its significant demographic and economic potential. The authors examine the Ethiopian government’s motivation for joining BRICS, including the pursuit of national interests, namely access to seaports, development of the hydropower sector, and diversification of partnerships for the benefit of economic development against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Western countries. It can be seen that a number of the country’s national interests as well as foreign trade objectives can be secured through membership in the association. Joining BRICS resonates with Addis Ababa’s desire to forge mutually respectful relations with developing countries and reflects the country’s geopolitical prestige on the continent. Ethiopia’s economic reasons for joining include rapid economic growth, established trade and investment relations with member countries, the need for external financial assistance, and integration into the continent’s trade.

Foreign Policy of North African and African Horn States in Contemporary World International Relations

The article includes analysis of regional vector of foreign policy of North Africa and African Horn States over 21st century in connection with the world mega-trends of development of the human civilization such as globalisation processes, forming united World, including united information space, permanent scientific-technical revolution, more active role of young people and women in economy, social renovating as well as in reforming political life, etc. On the whole, for the past 5 decades the shifts in economic development, in social sphere and results of political reforms have been limited (but anyone could say that this is just the beginning). This article is devoted to the analysis of the main factors of various nature influencing the regional vector of the foreign policy of the North African and African Horn countries. The results obtained through several steps that have been made on the way of modernization had influenced foreign policy but not terminated some conflicts the more serious and more painful problem. The historical gap between two epochs, namely colonial and postcolonial, gave birth to some obstacles, which are difficult or even impossible to overcome during short or medium perspective bearing in mind the strong external dependency of the countries of North Africa and the Horn of Africa. The latter could not disappear instantly. This is the problem for the whole epoch that is full of contradictions and controversial trends.

A global Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns from 21 000–0 BP (DAMP-21ka) using lake level proxy records

Abstract. Global hydroclimate significantly differed from modern climate during the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka). Consequently, both periods have been described as either a partial or reverse analogue for current climate change. To reconstruct past hydroclimate, an offline paleoclimate data assimilation methodology is applied to a dataset of 216 lake status records which provide relative estimates of water level change. The proxy observations are integrated with the climate dynamics of two transient simulations (TraCE-21ka and HadCM3) using a multivariate proxy system model (PSM) which estimates relative lake status from available climate simulation variables. The resulting DAMP-21ka (Data Assimilation of Moisture Patterns 21 000–0 BP) reanalysis reconstructs annual lake status and precipitation values at 500-year resolution and represents the first application of the methodology to global hydroclimate on timescales spanning the Holocene and longer. Validation using Pearson's correlation coefficients indicates that the reconstruction (0.24) is more skillful, on average, than model simulations (0.09), particularly in portions of North America and east Africa, where data density is high and proxy–model disagreement is prominent during the Holocene. Results of the PSM and assimilation are used to evaluate climatic controls on lake status, spatiotemporal patterns of moisture variability, and proxy–model disagreement. During the mid-Holocene, wetter conditions are reconstructed for northern and eastern Africa, Asia, and southern Australia, but in contrast to the model prior, negative anomalies are observed in North America, resulting in drier-than-modern conditions throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Proxy–model disagreement in western North America may reflect a bias in model simulations to stronger sea level pressure gradients in the North Pacific during the mid-Holocene. The data assimilation framework is able to reconcile these differences by integrating the constraints of proxy observations with the dynamics of the model prior to produce a more robust estimation of hydroclimate variability during the past 21 000 years.

The neurotoxic effect of Naja nubiae (Serpentes: Elapidae) venom from Sudan.

Neurotoxicity is a common feature of elapid snake envenomation. There are limited studies on the toxicity of Naja nubiae venom, the Nubian spitting cobra, from north-east Africa. We used the chick biventer cervicis nerve-muscle preparation to demonstrate the neurotoxic effect of N. nubiae venom and to compare it with the potent neurotoxic cobra Naja melanoleuca venom. Venoms were separated by successive reverse-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (RP-HPLC) runs and the molecular mass of the neurotoxins was determined by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF MS). Both venoms caused time-dependent inhibition of nerve-mediated twitches with a t90 value of 22.2±1.9min and 12.9±1.2min for N. nubiae and N. melanoleuca venoms, respectively. Prior incubation of some commercial antivenom (EchiTab-Plus-ICP [Costa Rica], CSL, Parkville, Victoria, Australia) and snake venom antisera [India]) did not prevent the neurotoxic effect of N. nubiae venom. The chromatographic separation of N. nubiae and N. melanoleuca venoms followed by MALDI-TOF MS analysis revealed that short-chain α-neurotoxin accounted for 8.4% of N. nubiae and 14.8% of N. melanoleuca whole venoms. N. nubiae venom, which was previously known as cytotoxic venom, exhibits considerable in vitro neurotoxic effects on chick nerve-muscle preparations that may have consequences for antivenom development in north-east Africa.

Foreign Aid, Identities and Interests: Qatar and the UAE in Sudan

ABSTRACT The entanglement of domestic and geopolitical dynamics with the evolution of the aid strategies of the Gulf States is particularly evident in the Horn of Africa (HOA), where the regional competition for exercising influence has affected the modalities of humanitarian and development interventions. A comparison of the foreign aid given by Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to Sudan in the context of its political and humanitarian crisis during three different periods (2014-17; 2017-19; and post-2019) allows a better understanding of these dynamics. By adopting a neoclassical realist and constructivist approach, it highlights similarities and differences in the domestic factors at play, including the ideological and security dimension, in both donor and recipient countries, as well as their overlapping with the regional and international spheres, which determine aid strategies in terms of the geographical, channel and sectoral allocation of aid resources.

What are the Roles of Civic Organizations in Public Health Development? Attempting to Make Politics A Social Medicine in the Horn of Africa

What are the Roles of Civic Organizations in Public Health Development? Attempting to Make Politics A Social Medicine in the Horn of Africa

Eurasian back-migration: traces in mythology?

The author examines the world distribution of mythological motifs peculiar for Northeast Africa but absent in other parts of this continent. The corresponding narratives describe the events of the time of creation, objects and beings localized at the ultimate limits of the human world as well as episodes of the journeys of heroes to these limits. The motifs in question are absent in Central Asia and Siberia but found across Western, South and Southeast Asia, in Oceania and across the New World. Considering such distribution, these stories probably appeared at the early stages of the peopling of the oikumene (definitely before the peopling of the New World) and were brought to Africa by the populations engaged into the Eurasian back-migrations that were going since the Terminal Pleistocene and possibly earlier.

Transcriptomic Profile of Tef (Eragrostis tef) in Response to Drought.

The threat to world food security posed by drought is ever increasing. Tef [Eragrostis tef (Zucc.) Trotter] is an allotetraploid cereal crop that is a staple food for a large population in the Horn of Africa. While the grain of tef provides quality food for humans, its straw is the most palatable and nutritious feed for livestock. In addition, the tef plant is resilient to several biotic and abiotic stresses, especially to drought, making it an ideal candidate to study the molecular mechanisms conferring these properties. The transcriptome expression of tef leaf collected from plants grown under drought conditions was profiled using RNA-Seq and key genes were verified using RT-qPCR. This study revealed that tef exhibits a complex molecular network involving membrane receptors and transcription factors that regulate drought responses. We identified target genes related to hormones like ABA, auxin, and brassinosteroids and genes involved in antioxidant activity. The findings were compared to physiological measurements such as changes in stomatal conductance and contents of proline, chlorophyll and carotenoid. The insights gained from this work could play vital role in enhancing drought tolerance in other economically important cereals such as maize and rice.

Boswellia Sacra: A Short Review on Botany, Phytochemistry and Medicinal Benefits

Boswellia sacra, commonly known as the frankincense tree, is a renowned medicinal and aromatic plant native to the arid regions of the Arabian Peninsula, northeastern Africa, and parts of India. This tree is particularly valued for its resin, which contains bioactive compounds, including boswellic acids, essential oils, and polysaccharides, contributing to its therapeutic potential. Boswellia sacra has been traditionally used for its antiinflammatory, analgesic, antimicrobial, anticancer, and neuroprotective properties. Recent research has confirmed the efficacy of these compounds in treating a range of conditions such as arthritis, asthma, inflammatory bowel diseases, cancer, and neurological disorders. Beyond its medicinal uses, Boswellia sacra plays a critical role in its native ecosystem by stabilizing soil, supporting biodiversity, and providing resources for local communities. However, overharvesting and habitat degradation pose significant threats to its survival, necessitating conservation efforts. This review highlights the ecological importance, phytochemistry, medicinal potential, and the need for sustainable harvesting practices to preserve this valuable species

Checklist and prioritization of crop wild relatives in Sudan and South Sudan

Crop wild relatives (CWR) encompass wild plant species or subspecies closely related to domesticated crops. This study presents the first comprehensive checklist and prioritized inventory of CWR for Sudan and South Sudan. Building on the regional CWR list for Northeast Africa, we identified 499 CWR taxa belonging to 44 families, with 90% of these being native species. The most prominently represented families were Poaceae (148), Fabaceace (72) and Convolvulaceae (43), while Panicum (32), Eragrostis (27), Ficus (24) and Pennisetum (20) were the most frequent genera. A prioritized inventory of 85 CWR taxa was developed based on three criteria: economic value, utilization potential and threat status. The prioritized CWR are predominately native (78%) and encompass 12 families dominated by Poaceae (38), followed by Solanaceae (9), Fabaceae (6) and Cucurbitaceae (6). Priority genera included 27, with Digitaria (17), Solanum (9) and Cucumis (5) emerging as key genera for conservation attention. This comprehensive national CWR inventory provides a crucial foundation for developing targeted conservation strategies in Sudan and South Sudan.

From Ideology to Action: Analyzing Rapoport’s Terrorism Framework in the Context of Al-Shabaab’s Evolving Extremist Ideology in the Horn of Africa

From Ideology to Action: Analyzing Rapoport’s Terrorism Framework in the Context of Al-Shabaab’s Evolving Extremist Ideology in the Horn of Africa

Goat seropositivity as an indicator of Rift Valley fever (RVF) infection in human populations: A case-control study of the 2018 Rift Valley fever outbreak in Wajir County, Kenya

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis, which is considered as a threat to food security in the Horn of Africa. In Kenya, RVF is the 5th ranked priority zoonotic disease due to its high morbidity and mortality, frequent outbreak events, and associated socioeconomic impacts during outbreak events. In 2018, an RVF outbreak was confirmed in Kenya's Siaya, Wajir, and Marsabit counties. During this outbreak, 30 people were confirmed infected with RVF through laboratory tests; 21 in Wajir, 8 in Marsabit, and 1 in Siaya Counties.Seventy-five (75) households (15 cases and 60 controls) were selected and interviewed using a case-control study design in 2021 (?). A case was a household with a member who was diagnosed with RVF in 2018. In addition, a total of 1029 animals were purposively selected within these households and serologically tested for RVF. The study aimed to estimate the contribution of various risk factors to RVF human occurrence in Kenya with a special focus on Wajir County. Wajir County was chosen due to high number of confirmed human cases reported in the 2018 outbreak. A univariable regression model revealed that owner-reported RVF virus exposure in livestock significantly increased the odds of an RVF human case in the household by 32.7 times (95 % CI 4.0–267.4). The respondent being linked to a goat flock that was IgG-positive increased the odds of an RVF human case by 3.8 times (95 % CI 1.17–12.3). In the final multivariable analysis, the respondent being linked to their own animals affected by RVF increased odds of having an RVF human case in the household by 56.9 times (95 % CI 4.6–700.4), while the respondent being linked to a neighbor household member affected decreased odds of having a RVF human case by 0.1 times (95 % CI 0.08–0.75).In summary, these results have revealed a potential link for the spread of RVF infection from animals to humans in pastoralist households, hence it is critical to carry out targeted, community education, One Health surveillance, prevention, and control measures against the disease. This will be critical to protecting humans against potential spillovers of infections during outbreak events in livestock.

Phylogenomics and phylogeographic model testing using convolutional neural networks reveal a history of recent admixture in the Canarian Kleinia neriifolia.

Multiple-island endemics (MIE) are considered ideal natural subjects to study patterns of island colonization that involve recent population-level genetic processes. Kleinia neriifolia is a Canarian MIE widespread across the archipelago, which exhibits a close phylogenetic relationship with species in northwest Africa and at the other side of the Sahara Desert. Here, we used target sequencing with plastid skimming (Hyb-Seq), a dense population-level sampling of K. neriifolia, and representatives of its African-southern Arabian relatives to infer phylogenetic relationships and divergence times at the species and population levels. Using population genetic techniques and machine learning (convolutional neural networks [CNNs]), we reconstructed phylogeographic relationships and patterns of genetic admixture based on a multilocus SNP nuclear dataset. Phylogenomic analysis based on the nuclear dataset identifies the northwestern African Kleinia anteuphorbium as the sister species of K. neriifolia, with divergence starting in the early Pliocene. Divergence from its sister clade, comprising species from the Horn of Africa and southern Arabia, is dated to the arid Messinian period, lending support to the climatic vicariance origin of the Rand Flora. Phylogeographic model testing with CNNs supports an initial colonization of the central island of Tenerife followed by eastward and westward migration across the archipelago, which resulted in the observed east/west phylogeographic split. Subsequent population extinctions linked to aridification events, and recolonization from Tenerife, are proposed to explain the patterns of genetic admixture in the eastern Canary Islands. We demonstrate that CNNs based on SNPs can be used to discriminate among complex scenarios of island migration and colonization.

Influence of climate on desert locust (Schistocerca gregaria Forskål, 1775) Plague and migration prediction in tropics

The outbreak of the desert locust Schistocerca gregaria Forskål, 1775, which originated from the Horn of Africa in 2019–2020 created an episodic plague under bio-geographical settings in the arid and semi-arid areas of South and Southwest Asia. In India, it happened after twenty-seven years due to the persistence of a few favourable conditions caused by its plague, resulting in hundreds of crores in crop damage. Keeping this in mind, the study aims to assess the suitability and likelihood of the desert locust epidemic occurring in India, utilizing two widely recognized statistical models: Weight-of-Evidence (WoE) and Frequency Ratio (FR). This work evaluated nine critical climatic factors for the study considering western and central parts of India. The ‘Projected Locust Suitability’ (PLS) was calculated by analyzing the correlation of the considered variables and the occurrence of locust swarms and bands. The significance (importance) of each variable on PLS was determined using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Random Forest (RF) algorithms. The PLS maps clearly show that 42.7–52.8% of the areas fall under high and very high locust suitability zones. The result suggests that the Ajmer-Gwalior-Allahabad tract is highly prone to future locust occurrences, while the Aligarh-Bareilly-Lakhimpur tract is moderately susceptible. The effectiveness of both modelled PLS maps was determined with the help of the ROC curve. The AUC results indicate that both the WoE (0.92) and the RF (0.90) models worked remarkably well in precisely predicting PLS. The RF-based IncNodePurity analysis indicates that low to moderate temperatures in the presence of cloud cover significantly impact locust occurrence and migration. The present findings are projected to direct the development of sustainable locust management strategies utilizing proper land use policies in the tropical climate.

Cultural rhythms and pulses on MIS 5-3 migration episodes of Homo sapiens dispersal in Northeast Africa

On the one hand, genetic observations suggest one essential migration of anatomically modern humans (AMH) from Africa to Eurasia had taken place around 70-50 ka BP and led to the dispersal of AMH all over the world (Out-of-Africa-II model). On the other hand, given the initial phase of the migration would have been located in East and Northeast Africa, archaeological patterning of cultural traits can, so far, neither support nor contradict such a model within the supposed area of migration, and at the time concerned hereby. This paper addresses the obvious invisibility of the migration in the archaeological record and the reasons for it. We propose the summer/winter rainfall frontier to have caused phases of isolation between East and Northeast Africa, impeding cultural exchange between these areas, either resulting from acculturation or migration. We exclude large scale events of dispersal, only small-scale movements of populations to be admitted. This might explain the lack of archaeological visibility of the migration event.

The Terrorist Networks and Their Posing Threats: The Case of the Horn of Africa

This study examines the evolution and impact of terrorist networks in the Horn of Africa, primarily focusing on Somalia and the surrounding region. Following the 9/11 attacks, the Horn of Africa emerged as a critical front in global counter-terrorism efforts due to the presence of groups like al-Shabaab and ISIS. This paper explores these groups’ organizational structures, strategies, and operations, highlighting their adaptability, resilience, and the sociopolitical dynamics that have enabled them to thrive. It delves into the persistent challenges faced by Somalia, including political fragmentation, economic deprivation, and the complex interplay of local and international actors, such as the United States and Türkiye. The study emphasizes the need for a multifaceted approach to counter-terrorism that integrates military, political, and diplomatic strategies, addressing the immediate security threats and the underlying causes of extremism. By analyzing current counter-terrorism efforts and their limitations, this paper offers strategic recommendations to achieve long-term stability in the region.

Now you see them, now you don’t: performance and the politics of localizing (forced) migration governance in the Horn of Africa’s secondary cities

We critically examine a multi-year initiative led by Cities Alliance with municipalities and civil society groups in Somaliland, Kenya, Uganda, and Ethiopia to respond to refugees and migration. Adapting Goffman’s work, we posit that in ambiguous and resource-scarce political environments, network success rests on supporting two “frontstages” and a shared “backstage”. On stage one, authorities “visibilize” refugees to attract funding and national support while shaping national-level norms. On stage two they make refugees “invisible” within their own development strategies, integrating displaced populations into urban planning through data collection, service investments, and inclusive strategies. In an experimental and collaborative backstage, municipal actors share resources and workshop varied scripts for their respective audiences. The initiative has lessened host–refugee tensions, strengthened municipal voices in national and regional policy fora, fostered local accountability, and created financial and bureaucratic resources better able to outlast the vagaries of humanitarian or emergency aid.

The enigmatic path of political transition in the Horn of Africa

The enigmatic path of political transition in the Horn of Africa

Evolution process of chemical weathering and sediment sources in the Makran Continental margin since the Younger Dryas

The chemical weathering processes and sedimentary source evolution since the Younger Dryas (YD) in the low-latitude arid continental margin have been investigated. Two sediment cores, MK07G and MK09G, were retrieved from the Makran continental margin in the northern Arabian Sea and subjected to analyses of major and trace elements, along with AMS14C dating. The results show that since the YD, the weathered parent rocks of Makran sediments have remained relatively stable, predominantly consisting of felsic rocks, with some contributions from mafic rocks. The Makran sediments exhibit initial to moderate weathering, with no discernible effects from grain size sorting or disturbances from sediment recycling, indicating primary deposition. Significant contributions of terrigenous eolian dust from surrounding continents (e.g., the Indian subcontinent, Arabian Peninsula, and northeastern Africa) were identified, along with riverine inputs from the Dasht River and fine-grained components from the Late Pleistocene Indus delta sediment, as well as proximal basin sedimentation. The evolution of sediment sources in the study area is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon and westerly wind systems, with intensified monsoon phases and westerly conditions correlating with increased fluvial input. Furthermore, chemical weathering processes since the YD are closely linked to local precipitation patterns, where intensified rainfall enhances weathering intensity. Records from the Makran continental margin indicate a teleconnection between chemical weathering and sedimentary processes in the Arabian Sea and Bond events in the North Atlantic, highlighting the extensive influence of Northern Hemisphere climate fluctuations.

An evaluation of a Browse-aid at the doorsteps of (agro)pastoralists to improve consumption of in situ browses and shrubs and prevent animal deaths during droughts

BackgroundThousands of animals die in Ethiopia during droughts due to unavailability of feed. Large amounts of browses are available during droughts, which animals do not consume because of the presence of tannins. The hypothesis of the study was that the provision of small amounts of Browse-aid (polyethylene glycol-4000) to animals at farmers’ doorsteps would increase browse consumption and body weight gain, and prevent deaths during droughts.MethodsA field study was conducted at two sites in Ethiopia to assess the dietary inclusion of the Browse-aid (daily 5 g and 10 g for shoats; and 15 g and 30 g for cattle) to farmers’ sheep, goats and cattle in areas devoid of grasses during a very dry spell.ResultsInclusion of the Browse-aid to sheep and goats significantly increased the percent body weight gain, and improved the body condition score, skin coat appearance and shine in eyes when compared with those of animals not given the Browse-aid. Similar results were observed in cattle. The foraging frequency of the animals also increased. Nutrient availability to the animals from the increased consumption of browses also increased. Furthermore, the body condition scores of the animals given the Browse-aid were greater than those of the animals that did not participate in the trial but were grazing in the same area.ConclusionBrowse-aid made a positive impact on the production of animals during periods of severe feed scarcity. This strategy of providing the Browse-aid (daily 5 g for sheep and goats, and 15 g for cattle) to animals during droughts is highly cost effective; additionally, compared with currently used feeding strategies, the cost in late 2023 was 60% and 90% lower for sheep and goats, and cattle respectively to prevent animals from dying during droughts. A large number of animals can be prevented from dying during droughts, at a much-reduced cost by the dietary inclusion of a small amount of the Browse-aid. The implications of the study are not restricted to Ethiopia but extend to countries in the Horn of Africa. This is the first study that has investigated the effect of the Browse-aid at the farmers’ doorsteps in the field.