Warm North Atlantic Research Articles

Role of North Atlantic warming in the extremely hot summer of 2023 in North China

Abstract A deadly heatwave hit North China in the summer of 2023, causing severe damage to human health and public infrastructure. However, the underlying physical mechanism is still unknown completely. In this study, we explore the causative role of anomalous sea surface temperatures in three oceans using observation and reanalysis data, as well as partial regression and correlation methods. This heatwave exhibited the longest maximum duration of the past 50 years. According to the probability density function, the maximum temperature also reached an unprecedented high. A long-lived anticyclone dominated North China, causing persistent downward motion and adiabatic heating, enabling the heatwave to form and continue for more than 20 d. The Indian, Pacific, and North Atlantic oceans all experienced extreme warming. However, our results indicate that North Atlantic warming played a decisive role in the occurrence of this heatwave by exciting a Rossby wave train that propagated eastward, generating the long-lived anomalous anticyclone and inducing heatwaves. In comparison, the other two oceans exhibited weak or negative contributions to the heatwave. As the North Atlantic shows an obvious warming trend with increasing global warming, more attention should be paid to its relationship with heatwaves in North China.

Amazon severe drought in 2023 triggered surface water loss

Abstract The Amazon underwent a severe austral springtime drought attributed to the onset of El Niño in 2023 and the warmer North Atlantic, Indian, and North Pacific Oceans. The Amazon rivers, lakes, small streams, wetlands, and reservoirs quickly lowered their water level below historical records due to decreased rainfall and warmth in the region. Based on satellite imagery, this study presents the first estimate of the water loss extent in the 4.2 million km2 of the Brazilian Amazon biome (∼62% of the Amazon total biome) in 2023. We estimated the loss of 3.3 million hectares of surface water relative to 2022, with an overall accuracy of 92%. The surface water losses were concentrated in the states of Amazonas (59.4%) and Pará (25.5), adding up to 2.8 million hectares. The warmer and drier climate in the region affected the main rivers in the Amazon. Among them, the Solimões, Negro, Purus, Acre, and Branco suffered extreme drops in their levels in some regions, resulting in a high negative impact on the aquatic biodiversity, yet estimated only in local areas. A total of 1.14 million hectares of surface water loss (i.e. 35%) was detected within protected areas territories, affecting extractivist, indegenous, African-Brazilian, and fishing and traditional communities. Proximity analysis revealed that 75% of the 2023 surface water loss was within 25 km of small towns, 48% and 65.8% at 50 km from indigenous villages and urban areas, respectively. Our results reinforce people’s vulnerability to climate change, anticipating a plausible adverse impact scenario in the Amazon region and urging solutions to adaptation and mitigation. Therefore, an integrated monitoring system based on climate and water dynamics from satellite and ground stations is necessary to improve understanding of the problem for timing response of climatic change negative impacts.

Sustained North Atlantic warming drove anomalously intense MIS 11c interglacial

The Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11c interglacial and its preceding glacial termination represent an enigmatically intense climate response to relatively weak insolation forcing. So far, a lack of radiometric age control has confounded a detailed assessment of the insolation-climate relationship during this period. Here, we present 230Th-dated speleothem proxy data from northern Italy and compare them with palaeoclimate records from the North Atlantic region. We find that interglacial conditions started in subtropical to middle latitudes at 423.1 ± 1.3 thousand years (kyr) before present, during a first weak insolation maximum, whereas northern high latitudes remained glaciated (sea level ~ 40 m below present). Some 14.5 ± 2.8 kyr after this early subtropical onset, peak interglacial conditions were reached globally, with sea level 6–13 m above present, despite weak insolation forcing. We attribute this remarkably intense climate response to an exceptionally long (~15 kyr) episode of intense poleward heat flux transport prior to the MIS 11c optimum.

Roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the projected north atlantic warming hole

Roles of the atmosphere and ocean in the projected north atlantic warming hole

Rapid high-latitude cooling in the southeastern Pacific sector driven by North Atlantic warming during 1979–2013 in CESM1

During the 1979–2013 satellite observation period, the sea surface temperature (SST) has cooled substantially in the high-latitude Southern Ocean, with the most pronounced cooling tendency centered in the southeastern Pacific domain. Previous hypotheses have commonly ascribed the recent Southern Ocean cooling to either the tropical eastern Pacific cooling or North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean SST warming. However, the mechanisms underpinning significant cooling in the southeastern Pacific sector remain debatable. By diagnosing three pacemaker experiments with a state-of-the-art global climate model in which SSTs in the North Atlantic, tropical central-eastern Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean-western Pacific are individually nudged to mimic the observed trajectory, we show that the North Atlantic dominates in the cold SST response of the southeastern Pacific sector during 1979–2013. Anomalous North Atlantic warming initiates a quasi-stationary Rossby wave response to a south-to-north cross-equatorial Hadley circulation strengthening, leading to an enhanced Amundsen Sea Low. As a result, due primarily to the increased low-level marine cloud cover, the net surface shortwave radiation reduction triggers rapid SST cooling in the southeastern Pacific domain. The southeastern Pacific cold SST anomalies are further maintained via the shortwave radiation-low-cloud-SST positive feedback on decadal timescales. Our results suggest that the shortwave radiation-low-cloud SST feedback is fundamental to the observed long-term cooling of the high-latitude Southern Ocean, with profound climate consequences worldwide.

Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could soon occur over Europe, and repeatedly. Despite the European climate being potentially prone to multi-year successive extremes due to the influence of the North Atlantic variability, it remains unclear how the likelihood of successive extremes changes under warming, how early they could reach end-of-century levels, and how this is affected by internal climate variability. Using the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble, we find that even under moderate warming, end-of-century heat and drought levels virtually impossible 20 years ago reach 1-in-10 likelihoods as early as the 2030s. By 2050–2074, two successive years of single or compound end-of-century extremes, unprecedented to date, exceed 1-in-10 likelihoods; while Europe-wide 5-year megadroughts become plausible. Whole decades of end-of-century heat stress could start by 2040, by 2020 for drought, and with a warm North Atlantic, end-of-century decades starting as early as 2030 become twice as likely.

Observed mechanisms activating the recent subpolar North Atlantic Warming since 2016.

The overturning circulation of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) plays a fundamental role in Earth's climate variability and change. Here, we show from observations that the recent warming period since about 2016 in the eastern SPNA involves increased western boundary density at the intergyre boundary, likely due to enhanced buoyancy forcing as a response to the strong increase in the North Atlantic Oscillation since the early 2010s. As these deep positive density anomalies spread southward along the western boundary, they enhance the North Atlantic Current and associated meridional heat transport at the intergyre region, leading to increased influx of subtropical heat into the eastern SPNA. Based on the timing of this chain of events, we conclude that this recent warming phase since about 2016 is primarily associated with this observed mechanism of changes in deep western boundary density, an essential element in these interactions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Tagging of Atlantic bluefin tuna off Ireland reveals use of distinct oceanographic hotspots

Electronic tagging of Atlantic bluefin tuna (ABT; Thunnus thynnus) has shaped our understanding of their movements and migrations throughout the Atlantic basin. In this study, we used pop-up satellite archival tagging data to examine the movements of 51 large (CFL µ ± σ: 215 ± 15 cm) ABT tagged off the coast of Ireland. When combined with satellite oceanographic data, we found that ABT take advantage of the warm North Atlantic Current to access foraging areas in the North Atlantic Ocean. We identified four potential foraging regions: (1) off the coast of Ireland, (2) the Bay of Biscay, (3) the Newfoundland Basin, and (4) the West European Basin. In addition, 14 ABT migrated to their spawning grounds in the Mediterranean Sea, entering by May 16 and exiting by July 7, on average. In all five regions, anticyclonic ocean features (i.e., eddies or recirculation) were present. In the open ocean, these features often co-occurred with areas where the daily maximum depth of tuna exceeded 400 m and tuna spent extended time at mesopelagic depths (i.e., greater than 200 m). We hypothesize that ABT exploit anticyclonic structures to forage on the abundant mesopelagic fish communities. Additionally, our results suggest that ABT are travelling across the North Atlantic Ocean in a directed migration to the Newfoundland Basin to reach what may be one of the best mesopelagic feeding grounds in the world.

Dynamics of the subpolar gyre and transition zone of the North Atlantic during the last glacial cycle

Past studies of marine sediments of the North Atlantic documented millennial-scale sea-surface cooling related to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events that influenced the oceanic fronts and surface hydrology during the last glacial cycle. Most studies have focused on using ice-rafting, single or multiple species of planktonic foraminifers' abundances, and geochemistry to assess environmental changes. However, detailed planktonic foraminiferal assemblage data in the North Atlantic Transition Zone (NATZ) and subpolar gyre (SPG) for the full last glacial cycle are scarce. Here we report planktonic foraminiferal abundances, oxygen isotopes, and ice-rafted detritus (IRD) counts from two sediment cores, Hu9007-08 and Hu71022-377, collected from the Milne seamount of southwestern SPG (SW SPG) and NATZ, respectively. Further, we have used the published planktonic foraminiferal assemblage, IRD, and isotopic data from the eastern and western SPG to provide an integrated reconstruction of changes in the surface water masses and dynamics of the Polar, Arctic, and subarctic fronts (PF, AF, and SAF, respectively). Despite the overall warmth of the SW SPG (near the Newfoundland Basin) compared to the eastern SPG during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5, the North Atlantic-wide cooling events C24 and C21 were still identified in the SW SPG. Further, the planktonic foraminiferal abundances in cores EW9303-37JPC (i.e., scarce Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and abundant Globigerinoides inflata) and Hu9007-08 reveal a relatively warm MIS 5e compared to the Holocene. However, the decrease in the abundance of G. inflata suggests that the SW SPG was influenced by the seasonal presence of subpolar waters and possibly a southward shift in the oceanic frontal systems between ∼126 and ∼120 ka. During the Heinrich ice-rafting events, when meltwater flooded the surface North Atlantic, the PF, AF, and SAF shifted southward, and the polar/subpolar water masses briefly invaded the western and eastern SPG and NATZ. In the early part of MIS 3 (60–40 ka), the oceanic frontal system shifted northward from its position during MIS 4. The SPG and NATZ gradually warmed, and the subpolar species Globigerina bulloides in cores Hu9007-08, Hu71022-377, and CH69-K09 increased in the middle of MIS 3 (i.e., 38–30 ka), suggesting continuous sea surface warming while the oceanic frontal systems continued to move northward. This hydrological environment rapidly cooled in the late MIS 3-MIS 2 (30–19 ka), with the PF shifted southward to the mid-latitude (∼45°N) during the Last Glacial Maximum. During the last deglaciation-Holocene, the regions of cores Hu9007-08 and Hu71022-377 were mainly influenced by the warm North Atlantic Current, and the SAF was located north of both cores. This study presents the first large-scale water mass movements and frontal changes in the SPG and NATZ to better understand the dynamics of the surface circulation in the North Atlantic during the last glacial cycle.

Future Winter Precipitation Decreases Associated With the North Atlantic Warming Hole and Reduced Convection

AbstractClimate projections in the North Atlantic region suffer from great uncertainties, and projections of precipitation are given with a large spread. Some of this uncertainty is related to projections of the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) projects a relatively strong and extensive NAWH, with future sea surface cooling extending to Northern Scandinavia. This study investigates the relatively large winter precipitation decrease projected by CESM2 in the northeastern North Atlantic region, reinforced in a regional model. Three future scenarios from CESM2 are dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecast model. A methodology to separate convective and orographic from stratiform precipitation is applied to explore the physical mechanisms. Changes in stratiform precipitation closely relate to storm‐track changes, which varies between the scenarios. Convective precipitation decreases by up to 50% over the Norwegian Sea at the end of the century, which is robust across the scenarios. This is explained by the underlying reduced sea surface temperatures of the NAWH, leading to reduced evaporation and reduced convective activity and intensity. The orographic precipitation maximum over the Scandinavian mountains is shifted upstream, likely affected by increased static stability and flow blocking, which also relates to the NAWH. This shift is possibly also explained by more frequent rain versus snow, as well as reduced cross‐barrier wind speeds. This study contributes to highlight the importance of focusing future research efforts on the NAWH, in order to constrain future climate projections in this region.

Moist and warm conditions in Eurasia during the last glacial of the Middle Pleistocene Transition

The end of the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT, ~ 800-670 thousand years before present, ka) was characterised by the emergence of large glacial ice-sheets associated with anomalously warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures enhancing moisture production. Still, the direction and intensity of moisture transport across Eurasia towards potential ice-sheets is poorly constrained. To reconstruct late MPT moisture production and dispersal, we combine records of upper ocean temperature and pollen-based Mediterranean forest cover, a tracer of westerlies and precipitation, from a subtropical drill-core collected off South-West Iberia, with records of East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) strength and West Pacific surface temperatures, and model simulations. Here we show that south-western European winter precipitation and EASM strength reached high levels during the Marine Isotope Stage 18 glacial. This anomalous situation was caused by nearly-continuous moisture supply from both oceans and its transport to higher latitudes through the westerlies, likely fuelling the accelerated expansion of northern hemisphere ice-sheets during the late MPT.

Two Distinct Phases of North Atlantic Eastern Subpolar Gyre and Warming Hole Evolution under Global Warming

Abstract The North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) plays a crucial role in determining the regional ocean surface temperature (SST), which has profound implications on the surrounding continental and coastal climate. Here, we analyze the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble global warming experiments and show that the SPG can evolve in two distinct phases under continuous global warming. In the first phase, as the global mean surface temperature approaches 2-K warming, the eastern SPG intensifies in combination with a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), accompanied by a cooling of subpolar North Atlantic SST, known as the warming hole. The associated oceanic fingerprint matches with the observations over the last 15 years, where an intensification and cooling of the eastern SPG is related to salinity reduction at the eastern side of the SPG. However, for further warming beyond 2 K, in spite of a continuous decline in the AMOC, a northward shift of the mean zonal wind extends the subtropical gyre northward with an associated disruption of the eastern SPG intensification, resulting in the cessation of the warming hole. Therefore, a shift from the initially dominating oceanic drivers to the atmospheric driver results into a two-phase evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean SPG circulation and the associated SST under continuous global warming.

Surface Bottom Sediments of the North Atlantic on the Transect along 59.5° N

An analysis of the lithological, isotope-geochemical, and micropaleontological parameters of the surface layer of bottom sediments in the North Atlantic was made at 26 stations on the profile along 59.5° N. The distribution of humidity and granulometric composition of sediments reflects vertical/circumcontinental zonality, since fine-grained and water-saturated material accumulates in the deepest parts of the Iceland Basin and the Labrador and Irminger seas, which are farthest from land. Larger masses of calcium carbonate are also formed there, but organic carbon is unevenly distributed. Both vertical/circumcontinental and climatic (circulation of the warm North Atlantic water) zonalities affect the mineral composition of the sediment fraction 0.063 mm. The accumulation of diatoms, radiolarians, and planktic foraminifers in sediments reflects both vertical/circumcontinental and, to a greater extent, climatic zonality. Variations in the isotopic oxygen and carbon ratios in the shells of benthic and planktic foraminifers require a complex interpretation involving data on the parameters of various surface and bottom water masses. The distribution of planktic microfossil assemblages according to cluster analysis shows areas of distribution of different water masses with a clear boundary along the eastern margin of the Subpolar Gyre. The distribution of “cluster” assemblages of benthic foraminifers does not correspond much to that of planktic microfossils, reflecting the division of the water area into abyssal and shallow water areas.

Different role of spring season Atlantic SST anomalies in indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability before and after early 2000

The present study shows that the weak (out-of-phase) correlation between the boreal spring Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) during the 1990–2001 periods turned into a significant positive relationship after that. During the first period, boreal spring (MAM) season Atlantic SST variability is dominated by stronger cooling in the southeastern region. After 2002, the spring season SST pattern has north Atlantic warming extending to the equatorial region and continuing to summer (JJAS). The primary mode of the Atlantic SST co-occurred with a pre-existing El Nino during period 1 and the formation of La Nina by summer during period 2. During period 1, ENSO-induced anomalies dominated with weak divergence over India and the Atlantic region, while during period 2, the warm SST anomalies of north Atlantic-induced off-equatorial convection and associated circulation extended to the Indian Ocean and Indian land region resulting in increased monsoon rainfall during JJAS. The study further showed that during period 2, the increased correlation of ENSO and ISMR is also contributed by the Atlantic SST anomalies with additional off-equatorial wind anomalies and circulation from the north Atlantic extending to the Indian Ocean and monsoon region. Thus, MAM season Atlantic SST anomalies play a significant role in ENSO phase reversal and ISMR during the recent period. Many of the seasonal prediction models that participated in the NMME project capture the phase reversal of AMM-ISMR correlation when initialized during February. But models have more robust equatorial SST patterns during the summer season, and the north Atlantic SST anomalies are vital in the absence of ENSO. The study indicates that the spring season AMM index can provide a predictive signal for ISMR in seasonal prediction models. Still, they need to improve the simulation of the Atlantic basic state and its teleconnection with the tropical east Pacific.

Manifestation of the Early 20th Century Warming in the East-European Plain: Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies and Its Connection to the North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Variability

A study of the climatic characteristics and annual runoff of the Volga and Severnaya Dvina rivers demonstrates that, on the East European Plain (EEP), Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW) manifested in a multiyear drought between 1934 and 1940; this drought has no analogues in this region in terms of intensity and duration according to Palmer’s classification, and caused extreme hydrological events. The circulation conditions during this event were characterized by an extensive anticyclone over Eastern Europe, combined with a cyclonic anomaly in the circumpolar region. An analysis of the spatial features of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies indicate that the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in July on the EEP during ETCW were related not only to the North Atlantic (NA) warming and positive AMO phase, but also to a certain spatial pattern of SST anomalies characteristic of the 1920–1950 period. The difference between the SST anomalies of the opposite sign in the different NA zones, used as the indicator of the obtained spatial pattern, shows the quite close relations between the July SAT anomalies on the EEP and the atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for them. The positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the expansion of the subtropical high-pressure belt to the north and to the east can be considered as global-scale drivers of this phenomenon. The AMO also impacts the sea ice cover in the Barents–Kara Sea region, which, in turn, could have led to specific atmospheric circulation patterns and contributed to droughts on the EEP in the 1930s.

Decadal variation of the summer extreme high temperature days in northern Eurasia during 1960–2018

Unprecedented heat waves have been demonstrated sweeping across much of the Northern Hemisphere in recent summers. However, this study reveals that for northern Eurasia (30°–70°N, 10°–130°E), significant increases in summer extreme high temperature days (EHTDs) have already commenced since the mid-1990s, with the peaks centered on the surrounding areas of the Caspian Sea and Lake Baikal. Results indicate that compared with the period of 1960–1994 (P1), during 1995–2018 (P2) high-pressure and anticyclonic anomalies occupy the areas around the Caspian Sea and Lake Baikal, thus suppressing local cloud cover and precipitation, enhancing the solar radiation and high-temperature anomalies. The anticyclonic anomaly over Lake Baikal shows a close relationship with the increasing trend of global temperature, and the anomalous anticyclone over the Caspian Sea is under the influence of the warm North Atlantic and anomalous upper-troposphere jet stream during P2. The warmer than normal North Atlantic leads to the high-pressure anomaly over the Caspian Sea by modulating the Rossby wave activity. In addition, during P2, the temperatures in the middle North Atlantic and Western Europe show greater increments than those over higher latitudes, and thus the temperature gradient enhances the westerly thermal wind, which therefore leads to an anomalous upper-level jet stream to the North of the Caspian Sea. Under this circumstance, the Caspian Sea is located to the right side of the anomalous jet exit, inducing the suppressed upward motion over there and favoring the occurrence of more EHTDs after the mid-1990s.

Formation of the North Atlantic Warming Hole by reducing anthropogenic sulphate aerosols

The North Atlantic Warming Hole (NAWH) has been observed and predicted due to the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. If sulphate aerosols, which have a cooling effect on the atmosphere, are reduced by air pollution control, the NAWH may form as it would if CO2 concentrations increased. In this study, sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere–ocean-aerosol model were conducted by varying the amount of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions, a precursor of sulphate which is the primary anthropogenic aerosol in the atmosphere, to analyse the changes in the ocean temperature, salinity, and density. The results showed that although the spatial patterns of the NAWH due to the changes in SO2 emissions was similar to that due to the changes in the CO2 concentrations, the magnitude of the shifts in the ocean parameters due to the changes in SO2 emissions is larger even when changes in global mean temperature are comparable. This can be due to the spatial concentration of sulphate aerosols in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting larger changes in the heat transport from the south on the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current along with changes in freshwater inflow from the Arctic through the Labrador Sea.

Multiproxy Reconstruction of Pliocene North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Rainfall in North Africa

AbstractWetter conditions in the African Sahel during the Pliocene (5.3–2.6 Ma) likely played an important role in hominid evolution and may be explained by warm North Atlantic sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs), similar to the modern warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). We reconstruct Pliocene North Atlantic (2°S to 60°N) SSTs through a multiproxy reduced‐dimension methodology that combines two new foraminiferal (Trilobatus sacculifer) Mg/Ca‐based SST records from Ocean Drilling Program sites in the northwestern Atlantic (Site 997) and Gulf of Mexico (Site 625) with previously published multi‐proxy SST records from seven additional Atlantic sites. Our Pliocene reconstructions indicate that the North Atlantic was overall warmer than the comparison period (0–0.5 Ma) with the most extreme warming occurring in the tropical and eastern subtropical North Atlantic and in the Labrador Sea. Furthermore, the mean state of North Atlantic warming at 5 Ma resembles that of the modern warm phase of the AMO with average SST anomalies of 3.8°C ± 0.5°C in the AMO region. With that reconstructed index, along with reconstructed El Niño‐like eastern Tropical Pacific SSTs from our previous research, we reconstruct rainfall over the Pliocene North Africa, covering the Sahara‐Sahel region and the Megalake Chad Basin and find up to twice the rainfall of that today. We surmise that this increased precipitation rate, along with other aiding land and sub‐surface processes, sustained Megalake Chad.

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

Variations of Summer Extreme and Total Precipitation over Southeast Asia and Associated Atmospheric and Oceanic Features

Abstract Southeast Asia lies at the heart of heavy precipitation on Earth, and a large amount of latent heat released here provides substantial energy for the global atmospheric circulation. Utilizing gauge-based daily precipitation and the self-organizing map technique, the summertime extreme and total precipitation over Southeast Asia during 1979–2019 are classified into three and five distinct patterns, respectively. The three extreme precipitation clusters are characterized by southern dry and northern wet (C1_extreme), overall wet (C2_extreme), and northern dry and southern wet (C3_extreme) structures. The frequencies of these patterns exhibit increasing trends during the analysis, although they are not statistically significant for C1_extreme. The C1_extreme pattern is accompanied by an anomalous cyclone over the South China Sea in response to negative Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The C2_extreme and C3_extreme clusters are characterized by a westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high, regulated by cool SSTAs over the tropical central-eastern Pacific that are induced by the tropical North Atlantic warming and the tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTAs, respectively. For total precipitation, the first and second clusters show overall dry distributions, which are mainly composed of nonextreme precipitation. The spatial patterns and atmospheric and oceanic features associated with the other three clusters of total precipitation bear large resemblances to those of C1_extreme, C2_extreme, and C3_extreme, respectively, but their trends exhibit smaller similarities. Comparing the differences between extreme and total precipitation over Southeast Asia could improve our understanding of their regional variabilities and relationships, and potentially their global impacts. Significance Statement We explore the atmospheric and oceanic processes associated with extreme precipitation, and compare them with those for total precipitation over Southeast Asia. The three key modes of summertime extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia are characterized by southern drought and northern flood, overall flood, and northern drought and southern flood structures. Each pattern is closely linked to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, but in different regions. Total precipitation can be classified into five distinct patterns. The first two modes are largely determined by nonextreme precipitation, while the other three bear large resemblances to the three extreme precipitation modes. These findings provide guidance on what is the key factor in driving each extreme precipitation mode over Southeast Asia, allowing better prediction.