North Atlantic Oscillation Years Research Articles

Trends in hepatic cadmium concentrations in marine bird species from the Canadian Arctic

Cadmium (Cd) is a trace element of toxicological concern that has been monitored in marine birds inhabiting the Canadian Arctic since 1975. Despite nearly 50 years of monitoring, research to date has largely evaluated single species, locations, or time points, and there is as of yet no holistic overview that jointly considers all available Cd data. We addressed this information gap by combining and analyzing most of the existing data on hepatic Cd concentrations in marine birds from the Canadian Arctic. Using data collected between 1975 and 2018 from eight seabird species from 12 Arctic breeding colonies, we examined temporal, spatial, and interspecific variation in hepatic Cd levels, and we evaluated possible drivers of marine bird Cd loads. Hepatic Cd concentrations ranged from 1.6 to 124 μg/g dry weight across species, and were highest in thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) and king eiders (Somateria spectabilis), and lowest in black guillemots (Cepphus grylle), black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla), and long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemalis). All sites with multiple years of data showed interannual fluctuations in Cd, which were correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and with the previous year's June sea ice coverage, where marine birds exhibited higher Cd concentrations in positive NAO years and following years with lower sea ice coverage. Climate change is likely to shift the NAO to being more negative and to reduce sea ice coverage, and our results thus identify various ways by which climate change could alter Cd concentrations in marine birds in the Canadian Arctic. Understanding variations in marine bird contaminant burdens, and how these may be alters by other stressors such as climate change, is important for long-term marine bird conservation efforts.

Possible relationship between NAO and tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the western North Pacific

This study examined a strong positive correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during June and the total tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in the western North Pacific during July and August. To investigate a possible cause for this relation, the mean difference between highest positive NAO years and lowest negative NAO years was analyzed by dividing into when the El Niño and La Niña years were included and when the El Niño and La Niña years were not included.When the El Niño and La Niña years were included, for positive NAO years, the TCs mostly occurred in the northwestern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and showed a pattern that migrate from the sea northeast of the Philippines, pass the East China Sea, and move toward the mid-latitudes of East Asia. In contrast, for negative NAO years, the TCs mostly occurred in the southeastern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and showed a pattern that migrate westward from the sea southeast of the Philippines, pass the South China Sea, and move toward the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula. These two different TC migration patterns affect the recurving location of TC, and for positive NAO years, the recurving of TC was averagely found to take place in the further northeast. In addition, the migration patterns also affect the TC intensity, and the TCs of positive NAO years had stronger intensity than the TCs of negative NAO years as sufficient energy can be absorbed from the ocean while moving north in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. The TCs of negative NAO years showed weak intensity as they weaken or disappear shortly while landing on the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula. On the other hand, the above result of analysis is also similarly observed when the El Niño and La Niña years were not included.

An abrupt shift in the Labrador Current System in relation to winter NAO events

AbstractThe behavior of the Labrador Current during the period from 1990 to 2007 is investigated with an eddy‐resolving circulation model for the North Atlantic Ocean. An EOF analysis of the model output suggests that the variability in the Labrador Current can be partitioned into a western Labrador Current (WLC; from the 300–2500 m isobaths), and an eastern Labrador Current (ELC; from the 2500 to 3300 m isobaths). The model results demonstrate that the WLC transport experienced an abrupt increase during 2000–2002, consistent with data. This differed significantly from the ELC transport which was strong during the high winter NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) years (1990–1995) and then steadily declined. This ELC trend is consistent with changes in the modeled Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and convection depth. Our study proposes that the change in the WLC is due to a southwestward shift of the atmospheric circulation pattern starting in 2001, coincident with a change in the 2001 NAO index, and also in a westward shift of the action centers of the winter NAO events.

A 100-year record of changes in water renewal rate in Sermilik fjord and its influence on calving of Helheim glacier, southeast Greenland

Here we present a 100 year long proxy record for the renewal rate of the subsurface ocean waters in Sermilik Fjord at the edge of Helheim Glacier, based on investigations of two sediment cores (ER11-24 and ER11-25) obtained from the head of the fjord. By calculating the mean sortable silt (SS¯) in current-sorted melt water plume sediments we find that episodes of increased water renewal rates lasting 3–5 years coincide with a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This is not surprising as low pressure systems and northeasterly storms are observed more frequently along the east coast of Greenland during positive NAO years as a result of the northward shift in the North Atlantic storm track. Previous studies of sediment cores obtained from the mid-region of the fjord showed that Helheim Glacier destabilization coincides with a negative NAO index. Therefore we conclude that inter-annual variability in storm-induced flushing of Sermilik Fjord and thus the water renewal rate towards the glacier margin is not the controlling factor for inter-annual variability in Helheim Glacier destabilization. Such knowledge may have implications on predictive model studies of ice-ocean interactions and glacier behavior.

북대서양 진동과 북서태평양 태풍발생빈도와의 관계

이 연구는 지역특별기상센터-동경 태풍 센터에서 제공하는 태풍의 최적 경로 자료와 미국 국립 환경예측센터/미국 국립 대기연구센터의 재분석 자료를 이용하여 6월 북대서양 진동 지수와 7, 8월 총 북서태평양 태풍발생빈도 사이에 강한 양의 상관관계가 있음이 분석되었다. 이러한 관계의 가능한 원인을 알아보기 위해 엘니뇨, 라니냐 해를 포함한 경우와 포함 하지 않은 경우로 구분하여 가장 높은 양의 북대서양 진동 해와 가장 낮은 음의 북대서양 진동 해 사이의 평균 차를 분석하였다. 엘니뇨 해와 라니냐 해를 포함한 경우 양의 북대서양 진동 해에는 태풍이 열대 및 아열대 서태평양의 북서쪽에서 주로 발생하였으며, 필리핀 북동쪽 해상으로부터 동중국해를 지나 동아시아 중위도 지역으로 이동하는 패턴을 나타냈다. 반면, 음의 북대서양 진동 해에는 태풍이 열대 및 아열대 서태평양의 남동쪽에서 주로 발생하였으며, 필리핀 남동쪽 해상으로부터 남중국해를 지나 중국 남부해안 및 인도차이나 반도를 향해 서진하는 패턴을 나타냈다. 이러한 두 해의 태풍 이동 패턴은 태풍의 전향위치에도 영향을 주어 양의 북대서양 진동 해에 태풍 전향이 평균적으로 좀 더 북동쪽에 이루어지는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 두 해의 태풍 이동 패턴은 태풍의 강도에도 영향을 주어 동아시아 중위도에 북상하는 동안 바다로부터 충분한 에너지를 공급받을 수 있는 양의 북대서양 진동 해의 태풍의 강도가 음의 북대서양 진동 해의 태풍들보다 더 강했다. 음의 북대서양 진동 해에 태풍은 중국 남부해안 및 인도차이나 반도에 상륙하면서 강도가 약해지거나 바로 소멸되어 약한 강도를 나타내었다. 한편 위의 모든 분석의 결과는 엘니뇨, 리니냐 해를 포함하지 않은 경우에도 비슷하게 나타나 6월 북대서양 진동 지수가 7, 8월 총 북서태평양 태풍발생빈도를 예측하는데 좋은 예측인자가 될 수 있음을 알 수 있었다. This study examined a strong positive correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index during June and the total tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency in the western North Pacific during July and August. To investigate a possible cause for this relationship, the mean difference between the highest positive NAO years and the lowest negative NAO years was analyzed by dividing into when the El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o and La Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>a years were included and when the El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o and La Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>a years were not included. When the El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o and La Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>a years were included, for the positive NAO years, the TCs mostly occurred in the northwestern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and showed a pattern that migrate from the sea northeast of the Philippines, pass the East China Sea, and move toward the mid-latitudes of East Asia. In contrast, for the negative NAO years, the TCs mostly occurred in the southeastern region of tropical and subtropical western Pacific, and showed a pattern that migrate westward from the sea southeast of the Philippines, pass the South China Sea, and move toward the southern coast of China and Indochinese peninsula. These two different TC migration patterns affect the recurving location of TC, and for the positive NAO years, the recurving of TC was averagely found to take place in the further northeast. In addition, the migration patterns also affect the TC intensity, and the TCs of positive NAO years had stronger intensity than the TCs of negative NAO years as sufficient energy can be absorbed from the ocean while moving north in the mid-latitudes of East Asia. The TCs of negative NAO years showed weak intensity as they get weaken or disappear shortly while landing on the southern coast of China and the Indochinese peninsula. On the other hand, the above result of analysis is also similarly observed when the El Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>o and La Ni<TEX>$\tilde{n}$</TEX>a years were not included.

The impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation on the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China in the past half-century

The relationship between the frequency of spring dust storms over Tarim Basin in northwest China and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated by using the observed dust storm frequency (DSF) and the 10 m wind velocity at 36 stations in Tarim Basin and the National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for the period 1961–2007. The spring DSF (winter NAO) index shows a clear decreasing (increasing) linear trend over 1961–2007. The winter NAO correlates well with the subsequent spring DSF over Tarim Basin on both interannual and interdecadal time scales and its interannual to interdecadal variation plays an important role in the spring DSF. Two possible physical mechanisms are identified. One is related to the large scale anomalous circulations in spring in the middle to high troposphere modulated by the winter NAO, providing the background of dynamical conditions for the dust storm occurrences. The other is related to the shifts in the local horizontal sea level pressure (SLP) gradients and 10 m wind speed, corresponding to changes in the large scale circulations in spring. The decrease in the local 10 m wind speed due to the reduced horizontal SLP gradients over Tarim Basin during the strong winter NAO years contributes to the decline of the DSF in the subsequent spring.

A Late 20th Century European Climate Shift: Fingerprint of Regional Brightening?

We investigate the spatial extent of a statistically highly significant shift in atmospheric temperatures over Europe around 1987-1988 using a boot-strap change point algorithm. According to this algorithm, this change point (average warming of about one degree Celsius) is statistically highly significant (p > 99.9999%). The change point is consistently present in satellite and surface temperature measurements as well as temperature re-analyses and ocean heat content over most of Western Europe. We also find a connection with parts of the North Atlantic Ocean and eastern Asia. Although the time of change coincides with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) going from negative to positive, the consistent warmer temperatures throughout the decades after 1987-1988 does not coincide with a persistent shift of the NAO, as it returns to a neutral/negative in the 1990’s. Furthermore, the shift does not coincide with any other known mode of multidecadal internal climate variability. We argue that the notion of a shift is “spurious”, i.e. the result of a fast change in Europe from dimming to brightening combined with an accidental sequence of cold (negative NAO) and warm (positive) NAO years during this period. The “shift” could therefore be considered as a fingerprint of European brightening during the last few decades.

The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the uptake and accumulation of anthropogenic CO2by North Atlantic Ocean mode waters

[1] The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.

A combination of hydrodynamical and statistical modelling reveals non-stationary climate effects on fish larvae distributions.

Biological processes and physical oceanography are often integrated in numerical modelling of marine fish larvae, but rarely in statistical analyses of spatio-temporal observation data. Here, we examine the relative contribution of inter-annual variability in spawner distribution, advection by ocean currents, hydrography and climate in modifying observed distribution patterns of cod larvae in the Lofoten-Barents Sea. By integrating predictions from a particle-tracking model into a spatially explicit statistical analysis, the effects of advection and the timing and locations of spawning are accounted for. The analysis also includes other environmental factors: temperature, salinity, a convergence index and a climate threshold determined by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We found that the spatial pattern of larvae changed over the two climate periods, being more upstream in low NAO years. We also demonstrate that spawning distribution and ocean circulation are the main factors shaping this distribution, while temperature effects are different between climate periods, probably due to a different spatial overlap of the fish larvae and their prey, and the consequent effect on the spatial pattern of larval survival. Our new methodological approach combines numerical and statistical modelling to draw robust inferences from observed distributions and will be of general interest for studies of many marine fish species.

Exotic pollen as an indicator of variable atmospheric circulation over the Labrador Sea region during the mid to late Holocene

AbstractVariability in the abundance of exotic (non‐native) pollen in sediment cores has long been considered as a potential proxy for changing atmospheric circulation, but the difficulty of gaining sufficient total exotic pollen and the incomplete understanding of atmospheric pollen transport patterns has hindered its application. In light of recent advances in the study of pollen transport, we present an exotic pollen record from two fjord sediment cores taken from the west (Placentia Bay, Newfoundland) and east (Narsaq Sund, Greenland) Labrador Sea as a basis for studying variations in regional atmospheric circulation. The two cores cover the last ca. 5500 years and indicate a shift in dominant spring/summer air masses at ca. 2000 (southern Greenland) and 3000 cal a BP (Newfoundland) transporting reduced concentrations of pollen from southerly and south‐westerly vegetation zones. This may suggest a shift away from more dominantly zonal atmospheric circulation (a feature of positive North Atlantic Oscillation years) to more frequent meridional circulation. These results support sea ice/sea‐surface temperature proxy reconstructions from Newfoundland, investigated as part of the same project, which also suggest increased winter atmospheric circulation during the early part of the time period studied. In this region, more positive North Atlantic Oscillation years, and therefore more zonal atmospheric circulation, are associated with increased atmospheric circulation in both the winter and the summer seasons. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Influence of temperature on embryo developmental cycles and mortality of female Chionoecetes opilio (snow crab) on the Scotian Shelf, Canada

Chionoecetes opilio (snow crab) in Atlantic Canada is a valuable fishery. A key factor in the conservation and sustainability of C. opilio is the length of its reproductive cycle, which in different regions has been observed to be ca. 1 or 2 years and temperature dependent. Ten years of embryo colour (a proxy for embryo development) data from the Scotia Shelf (SS) is analyzed using a binomial Generalized Linear Model. The influences of temperature and time variations upon the transition of early developmental stages are described. Over 80% of the females were estimated to follow a ∼1 year reproductive cycle, corresponding to the relative proportion of springtime SS bottom temperatures greater than 1 °C. As an upper bound, total annual larval production is expected to have ranged from 280 billion and 32 trillion since 1997 with an associated female mortality from larval stage to maturity of 63–81% per annum ( Z = 1–1.65). Climate variability can therefore have a large influence upon the total potential reproductive output. Global Circulation Models predict that there will be more positive North Atlantic Oscillation years for the North Atlantic, assuming this to be the case we speculate that the associated warmer bottom temperatures along the central and west SS would lead to even greater percentages of the C. opilio females entering a 1 year reproductive cycle, whereas cooling along the eastern shelf (where the majority of the population resides) would shrink the warm water habitat available and potentially force more females into a two year cycle. If the magnitude of warming extends beyond C. opilio's preferred range, the entire population may shift north-east.

Influence of oceanic factors on Anguilla anguilla (L.) over the twentieth century in coastal habitats of the Skagerrak, southern Norway

The European eel (Anguilla anguilla L.) is distributed in coastal and inland habitats all over Europe, but spawns in the Sargasso Sea and is thus affected by both continental and oceanic factors. Since the 1980s a steady decline has been observed in the recruitment of glass eels to freshwater and in total eel landings. The eel is considered as critically endangered on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources Red List of species. The Skagerrak beach seine survey from Norway constitutes the longest fishery-independent dataset on yellow/silver eels (starting in 1904). The Skagerrak coastal region receives larvae born in the Sargasso Sea spawning areas that have followed the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Drift before they penetrate far into the North Sea. The Skagerrak coastal time series is therefore particularly valuable for exploring the impacts of oceanic factors on fluctuations in eel recruitment abundance. Analyses showed that Sargasso Sea surface temperature was negatively correlated with eel abundance, with a lag of 12 years revealing a cyclic and detrimental effect of high temperatures on the newly hatched larvae. The North Atlantic Oscillation index and inflow of North Atlantic water into the North Sea were negatively correlated with eel abundance, with a lag of 11 years. Increased currents towards the North Atlantic during high North Atlantic Oscillation years may send larvae into the subpolar gyre before they are ready to metamorphose and settle, resulting in low recruitment in the northern part of the distribution area for these years. The Skagerrak time series was compared with glass eel recruitment to freshwater in the Netherlands (Den Oever glass eel time series), and similar patterns were found revealing a cycle linked to changes in oceanic factors affecting glass eel recruitment. The recent decline of eels in the Skagerrak also coincided with previously documented shifts in environmental conditions of the North Sea ecosystem.

Simulated Response of the Arctic Freshwater Budget to Extreme NAO Wind Forcing

Abstract The authors investigate the response of the Arctic Ocean freshwater budget to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) using a regional-ocean configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology GCM (MITgcm) and carry out several different 10-yr and 30-yr integrations. At 1/6° (∼18 km) resolution the model resolves the major Arctic transport pathways, including Bering Strait and the Canadian Archipelago. Two main calculations are performed by repeating the wind fields of two contrasting NAO years in each run for the extreme negative and positive NAO phases of 1969 and 1989, respectively. These calculations are compared both with a control run and the compiled observationally based freshwater budget estimate of Serreze et al. The results show a clear response in the Arctic freshwater budget to NAO forcing, that is, repeat NAO negative wind forcing results in virtually all freshwater being retained in the Arctic, with the bulk of the freshwater content being pooled in the Beaufort gyre. In contrast, repeat NAO positive forcing accelerates the export of freshwater out of the Arctic to the North Atlantic, primarily via Fram Strait (∼900 km3 yr−1) and the Canadian Archipelago (∼500 km3 yr−1), with a total loss in freshwater storage of ∼13 000 km3 (15%) after 10 yr. The large increase in freshwater export through the Canadian Archipelago highlights the important role that this gateway plays in redistributing the freshwater of the Arctic to subpolar seas, by providing a direct pathway from the Arctic basin to the Labrador Sea, Gulf Stream system, and Atlantic Ocean. The authors discuss the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean to long-term fixed extreme NAO states and show that the freshwater content of the Arctic is able to be restored to initial values from a depleted freshwater state after ∼20 yr.

Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on water resources in central Iberia: Precipitation, streamflow anomalies, and reservoir management strategies

This paper analyzes the influence of the extreme phases of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water resources in the Spanish region of the Tagus River basin. By analyzing a winter NAO index based on station sea level pressure, the years between 1957 and 2003 were classified as normal, positive, and negative NAO years. A statistical test was then applied to monthly data series of precipitation, river discharge, reservoir storage, and reservoir release to analyze the variations in these variables. For all four variables, significant differences were found between positive and negative NAO years, the former resulting in reduced water availability (negative anomalies) and the latter resulting in increased water availability (positive anomalies). The influence of extreme NAO winters was found to act with different time lags on different variables: The effect of extreme NAO winters on precipitation was found to be quite immediate (and significant for December to March), but this effect was observed later in the year and lasted longer for river discharge, reservoir storage, and water release. Positive and negative NAO years were also found to have different effects on these variables, in that the effects of positive years were more sustained and those of negative years were more rapid and less prolonged. In spite of the high variability of the availability of water resources, the strategies for management of the reservoir system of the basin were found in most cases to provide a regular supply that meets water demands. However, our results also indicate that these water management practices are not adequate for the expected scenarios of climate change and increasing water demand.

Dynamics of Eddy-Driven Low-Frequency Dipole Modes. Part I: A Simple Model of North Atlantic Oscillations

Abstract A simple theoretical model is proposed to clarify how synoptic-scale waves drive the life cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with a period of nearly two weeks. This model is able to elucidate what determines the phase of the NAO and an analytical solution is presented to indicate a high similarity between the dynamical processes of the NAO and zonal index, which is not derived analytically in previous theoretical studies. It is suggested theoretically that the NAO is indeed a nonlinear initial-value problem, which is forced by both preexisting planetary-scale and synoptic-scale waves. The eddy forcing arising from the preexisting synoptic-scale waves is shown to be crucial for the growth and decay of the NAO, but the preexisting low-over-high (high-over-low) dipole planetary-scale wave must be required to match the preexisting positive-over-negative (negative-over-positive) dipole eddy forcing so as to excite a positive (negative) phase NAO event. The positive and negative feedbacks of the preexisting dipole eddy forcing depending upon the background westerly wind seem to dominate the life cycle of the NAO and its life period. An important finding in the theoretical model is that negative-phase NAO events could be excited repeatedly after the first event has decayed, but for the positive phase downstream isolated dipole blocks could be produced after the first event has decayed. This is supported by observed cases of the NAO events presented in this paper. In addition, a statistical study of the relationship between the phase of the NAO and blocking activity over Europe in terms of the seasonal mean NAO index shows that blocking events over Europe are more frequent and long-lived for strong positive-phase NAO years, indicating that the positive-phase NAO favors the occurrence of European blocking events.

Zooplankton and the North Atlantic Oscillation: a basin-scale analysis

This study examines multiple, long-term zooplankton time series across the Atlantic region and its inland seas. Across a broad range of geographic regions and ecological environments, the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannual changes in the zooplankton populations was evident. Across the mid-Atlantic, a correlation between the NAO and zooplankton abundance was present and remained positive from the northwestern Atlantic through the enclosed seas of the far eastern Atlantic. Following high NAO years, these regions experienced higher total zooplankton abundance or biomass. Following low NAO years, this trend was reversed. A time lag in the zooplankton response to the NAO was also evident, influenced more by the scale of the water basin than by latitudinal or longitudinal location. For some regions, the correlation between zooplankton and the NAO was higher when the NAO was substituted with its sub-components: the Azores High (AH) and the Icelandic Low (IL) atmospheric pressure systems. This suggests that decomposition of the NAO into its components might enhance the sensitivity of the analysis of biological time series with regard to climate change.

Phenological changes in the Northwestern Mediterranean copepods Centropages typicus and Temora stylifera linked to climate forcing

Planktonic copepods play a major role in the fluxes of matter and energy in the marine ecosystem, provide a biological pump of carbon into the deep ocean, and play a role in determining fish recruitment. Owing to such ecological considerations, it is essential to understand the role that climate might play in the interannual variability of these organisms and the mechanisms by which it could modify the ecosystem functioning. In this study, a causal chain of meteorological, hydrological and ecological processes linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was identified in the Ligurian Sea, Northwestern Mediterranean. The forcing by the NAO drives most of the hydro-climatic variability during winter and early spring. Subsequently, interannual and decadal changes of the dominant copepods Centropages typicus and Temora stylifera were significantly correlated to the state of the hydro-climatic signal and tightly coupled to the NAO. Direct and indirect effects whose influence promoted phenological changes in the two copepod populations drove the species' responses to climatic forcing. Opposite responses of the analysed species were also highlighted by these results. While years characterized by the positive phase of the NAO leads to enhancement of the strength and the forward move of the C. typicus peak, they act negatively on the annual cycle of T. stylifera, the abundance of which drops twofold and the annual peak appears delayed in time. In contrast, low NAO years lead to high abundance of T. stylifera and a forward timing of its peak, and acts in turn negatively on the C. typicus annual cycle in both abundance (low) and timing (delayed). Owing to the synchronism between hydro-climatic conditions and the NAO, and the major role of these species in the pelagic ecosystem of the studied area, these results provide key elements for interpreting and forecasting decadal changes of planktonic populations in the Ligurian Sea.

A preliminary investigation of basin water response to climate forcing in a Scottish fjord: evaluating the influence of the NAO

The sea lochs (fjords) of NW Scotland bridge the land–ocean interface in a region of Europe which is particularly well situated to monitor changes in westerly air streams. Inter-annual atmospheric circulation changes at this latitude are largely governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Comparing two recent extreme NAO years, a two-dimensional model of Loch Sunart, NW Scotland, is used to examine the potential effects of climate oscillations on the magnitude and frequency of deep-water renewal events and the resulting water properties in the fjord basins. In the upper basin of the fjord, meteorological forcing during the high NAO index year (1988–89) resulted in less-frequent deep-water renewal, greater variability in basin salinity and a lower annual-mean salinity (by 0.52) than that predicted for the low NAO index year (1995–96). In the main basin, variations in meteorological forcing had much less effect on basin water properties. In both basins, predicted deep water inflow was significantly greater during the negative phase NAO, with annual inflow to the upper and main basins being respectively 50% and 300% greater during 1995–96 relative to 1988–99. Through a sensitivity analysis, the NAO is shown to affect upper basin water properties through the influence of low-frequency anomalies in the meteorological forcing, particularly the enhanced westerly wind stress associated with positive phases, which inhibits deep water renewal over the winter months. The salinity of the main and upper basins respond differently to the boundary forcing due to differential tidal mixing above the respectively sub- and super-critical entrance sills. Predictions of basin water isotope ratios are made by applying the salinity: δ 18O water mixing line for the region to the salinity results; the combination of the weak dependence of δ 18O water on salinity and the stable salinity predicted for the main basin suggests that some fjord basins may provide ideal sites for palaeotemperature studies.

The North Atlantic Oscillation, Surface Current Velocities, and SST Changes in the Subpolar North Atlantic

Abstract Changes in surface circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic are documented for the recent interannual switch in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index from positive values in the early 1990s to negative values in 1995/96. Data from Lagrangian drifters, which were deployed in the North Atlantic from 1992 to 1998, were used to compute the mean and varying surface currents. NCEP winds were used to calculate the Ekman component, allowing isolation of the geostrophic currents. The mean Ekman velocities are considerably smaller than the mean total velocities that resemble historical analyses. The northeastward flow of the North Atlantic Current is organized into three strong cores associated with topography: along the eastern boundary in Rockall Trough, in the Iceland Basin (the subpolar front), and on the western flank of the Reykjanes Ridge (Irminger Current). The last is isolated in this Eulerian mean from the rest of the North Atlantic Current by a region of weak velocities on the east side of the Reykjanes Ridge. The drifter results during the two different NAO periods are compared with geostrophic flow changes calculated from the NASA/Pathfinder monthly gridded sea surface height (SSH) variability products and the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) SST data. During the positive NAO years the northeastward flow in the North Atlantic Current appeared stronger and the circulation in the cyclonic gyre in the Irminger Basin became more intense. This was consistent with the geostrophic velocities calculated from altimetry data and surface temperature changes from AVHRR SST data, which show that during the positive NAO years, with stronger westerlies, the subpolar front was sharper and located farther east. SST gradients intensified in the North Atlantic Current, Irminger Basin, and east of the Shetland Islands during the positive NAO phase, associated with stronger currents. SST differences between positive and negative NAO years were consistent with changes in air–sea heat flux and the eastward shift of the subpolar front. SST advection, as diagnosed from the drifters, likely acted to reduce the SST differences.

Community persistence among stream invertebrates tracks the North Atlantic Oscillation

Summary The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) affects marine ecosystems, lakes and some terrestrial ecosystems around the Atlantic rim, but evidence for effects on rivers is scarce. For 14 years, we sampled riverine macroinvertebrates in eight independent streams from the Llyn Brianne experimental catchments in central Wales. We assessed whether year‐to‐year persistence in rank abundance and species composition tracked the NAO. Persistence was quasi‐cyclical and varied synchronously across all streams, irrespective of chemistry and catchment land use. Invertebrate communities in all stream types or habitats switched significantly from being highly persistent during negative phases of the NAO (winter index &lt; 1 = cold, dry winters) to unstable during positive phases (&gt; 1 = mild, wet winters). These effects occurred in both rare and common taxa. Acid episodes could not explain low persistence in positive NAO years because variations in acid‐base status were not linked to the NAO. Moreover, fluctuations in persistence were apparent even in well‐buffered streams. Discharge in adjacent gauged catchments increased in positive NAO years by 15–18% but neither flow variability nor flow maxima were higher. Nor were variations in invertebrate persistence at Llyn Brianne directly correlated with discharge pattern. Discharge variations alone were therefore insufficient to explain links between persistence and the NAO, but we cannot exclude subtle effects due either to flow or temperature. These data illustrate how the persistence of invertebrate communities varies through time in fluctuating environments. Positive phases of the NAO are accompanied by ecological instability in the Llyn Brianne streams, although the exact mechanisms are currently unclear. The effects of the NAO might confound or obscure other long‐term change in rivers such as recovery from acidification or the effects of global warming.