Changes In North Atlantic Oscillation Research Articles

ENSO-driven abrupt phase shift in North Atlantic oscillation in early January

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections exhibit a strong dependency on seasonally and intraseasonally varying mean states, leading to impactful short-term variations in regional climate. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-ENSO relation is a typical example, in that its phase relationship reverses systematically between the early and late winter. Here based on observations and an ensemble of atmosphere-only climate model simulations, we reveal that this NAO phase reversal occurs synchronously in early January, showing strong abruptness. We demonstrate that this abrupt NAO phase reversal is caused by the change in ENSO-induced Rossby wave-propagating direction from northeastward to southeastward over the northeastern North American region, which is largely governed by a climatological alteration of the local jet meridional shear. We also provide evidence that the North Atlantic intrinsic eddy–low-frequency flow feedback further amplifies the NAO responses. This ENSO-related abrupt NAO change offers an avenue for intraseasonal climate forecasting in the Euro-Atlantic region.

A Late Holocene climate reconstruction from the high-altitude Lake Gölcük sedimentary records, Isparta (SW Anatolia)

AbstractA high-resolution multiproxy lake sediment dataset, comprising lithology, radiography, μXRF elemental, magnetic susceptibility (MS), δ13C, and δ18O measurements since ca. AD 400 is presented in this study. Changes in lithology, radiography, magnetic susceptibility (MS), δ13C, and δ18O reflect wet/dry climate periods, whereas variability in log(Ca/K) can reflect warm/cold climate periods. Analyses of the multiproxy results allow the distinction of several climate periods, which may be associated with climatic phenomena such as changes in North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar activity. The influence of NAO−/NAO+ (negative/positive) is suggested to be related with the southward/northward displacement of the storm tracks resulting from the NAO−/NAO+ phases. For solar activity, the influence is explained through a direct increase in solar heating leading to calcite precipitation. The Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP, AD 450–750) reflects cold-dry climate conditions at this site, indicative of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) and low solar activity. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950–1250) exhibits wet-dry-wet and warm-cold-warm climate conditions. The wet/dry periods likely are associated with NAO−/NAO+, respectively, and the warm/cold period may reflect relatively high/low solar activity. The Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1400–1850) is characterized by dry and cold climate conditions, suggesting the influence of NAO+ and low solar activity. Comparison of the results of this study with local and regional results suggests a generally similar climate pattern, which is indicative of similar climate mechanisms. The contradictions can be associated with age-related uncertainties, orographic differences, and/or other regional teleconnections.

The Role of the North Atlantic Oscillation for Projections of Winter Mean Precipitation in Europe

AbstractClimate models generally project an increase in the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index under a future high‐emissions scenario, alongside an increase in winter precipitation in northern Europe and a decrease in southern Europe. The extent to which future forced NAO trends are important for European winter precipitation trends and their uncertainty remains unclear. We show using the Multimodel Large Ensemble Archive that the NAO plays a small role in northern European mean winter precipitation projections for 2080–2099. Conversely, half of the model uncertainty in southern European mean winter precipitation projections is potentially reducible through improved understanding of the NAO projections. Extreme positive NAO winters increase in frequency in most models as a consequence of mean NAO changes. These extremes also have more severe future precipitation impacts, largely because of mean precipitation changes. This has implications for future resilience to extreme positive NAO winters, which frequently have severe societal impacts.

Climate oscillations drive millennial‐scale changes in seabird colony size

Seabird population size is intimately linked to the physical, chemical, and biological processes of the oceans. Yet, the overall effects of long-term changes in ocean dynamics on seabird colonies are difficult to quantify. Here, we used dated lake sediments to reconstruct ~10,000-years of seabird dynamics in the Northwest Atlantic to determine the influences of Holocene-scale climatic oscillations on colony size. On Baccalieu Island (Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada)-where the world's largest colony of Leach's storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous Vieillot 1818) currently breeds-our data track seabird colony growth in response to warming during the Holocene Thermal Maximum (ca. 9000 to 6000 BP). From ca. 5200 BP to the onset of the Little Ice Age (ca. 550 BP), changes in colony size were correlated to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By contrasting the seabird trends from Baccalieu Island to millennial-scale changes of storm-petrel populations from Grand Colombier Island (an island in the Northwest Atlantic that is subjected a to different ocean climate), we infer that changes in NAO influenced the ocean circulation, which translated into, among many things, changes in pycnocline depth across the Northwest Atlantic basin where the storm-petrels feed. We hypothesize that the depth of the pycnocline is likely a strong bottom-up control on surface-feeding storm-petrels through its influence on prey accessibility. Since the Little Ice Age (LIA), the effects of ocean dynamics on seabird colony size have been altered by anthropogenic impacts. Subsequently, the colony on Baccalieu Island grew at an unprecedented rate to become the world's largest resulting from favorable conditions linked to climate warming, increased vegetation (thereby nesting habitat), and attraction of recruits from other colonies that are now in decline. We show that although ocean dynamics were an important driver of seabird colony dynamics, its recent influence has been modified by human interference.

Greenland surface air temperature changes from 1981 to 2019 and implications for ice‐sheet melt and mass‐balance change

AbstractWe provide an updated analysis of instrumental Greenland monthly temperature data to 2019, focusing mainly on coastal stations but also analysing ice‐sheet records from Swiss Camp and Summit. Significant summer (winter) coastal warming of ~1.7 (4.4)°C occurred from 1991–2019, but since 2001 overall temperature trends are generally flat and insignificant due to a cooling pattern over the last 6–7 years. Inland and coastal stations show broadly similar temperature trends for summer. Greenland temperature changes are more strongly correlated with Greenland Blocking than with North Atlantic Oscillation changes. In quantifying the association between Greenland coastal temperatures and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass‐balance changes, we show a stronger link of temperatures with total mass balance rather than surface mass balance. Based on Greenland coastal temperatures and modelled mass balance for the 1972–2018 period, each 1°C of summer warming corresponds to ~(91) 116 Gt·yr−1 of GrIS (surface) mass loss and a 26 Gt·yr−1 increase in solid ice discharge. Given an estimated 4.0–6.6°C of further Greenland summer warming according to the regional model MAR projections run under CMIP6 future climate projections (SSP5‐8.5 scenario), and assuming that ice‐dynamical losses and ice sheet topography stay similar to the recent past, linear extrapolation gives a corresponding GrIS global sea‐level rise (SLR) contribution of ~10.0–12.6 cm by 2100, compared with the 8–27 cm (mean 15 cm) “likely” model projection range reported by IPCC in 2019 (SPM.B1.2). However, our estimate represents a lower limit for future GrIS change since fixed dynamical mass losses and amplified melt arising from both melt‐albedo and melt‐elevation positive feedbacks are not taken into account here.

Gulf Stream Variability in the Context of Quasi‐Decadal and Multidecadal Atlantic Climate Variability

AbstractThe Gulf Stream plays an important role in North Atlantic climate variability on a range of timescales. The North Atlantic is notable for large decadal variability in sea surface temperatures (SST). Whether this variability is driven by atmospheric or oceanic influences is a disputed point. Long time series of atmospheric and ocean variables, in particular long time series of Gulf Stream position, reveal differing sources of SST variability on quasi‐decadal and multidecadal timescales. On quasi‐decadal timescales, an oscillatory signal identified in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) controls SST evolution directly via air‐sea heat fluxes. However, on multidecadal timescales, this relationship between the NAO and SST changes, while the relationship between the NAO and Gulf Stream position remains consistent in phase and resonant in amplitude. Recent changes in the Gulf Stream Extension show a weakening and broadening of the current, consistent with increased instability. We consider these changes in the context of a weakening Atlantic overturning circulation.

On the low-frequency variability of wintertime Euro-Atlantic planetary wave-breaking

Planetary wave-breaking can lead to large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and favour high-impact weather occurrences. For example, the simultaneous occurrence of anti-cyclonic wave-breaking to the south of the North Atlantic jet and cyclonic wave-breaking to the north, here termed double wave-breaking, has been linked to heightened frequencies of explosive cyclones in the Atlantic basin and destructive windstorms over Western and Continental Europe. The present study analyses the long-term temporal variability of wintertime cyclonic and anti-cyclonic wave-breaking, and the resulting double wave-breaking, in the North Atlantic. We use reanalysis data, proxy reconstructions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a 1000-year coupled global climate model equilibrium simulation under constant pre-industrial forcing. The wave-breaking wavelet spectra highlight a significant ultra-centennial variability in double wave-breaking frequency, which is largely mirrored in the variability of the NAO. However, we note that the NAO wavelet spectra in the different datasets display significant discrepancies. The low-frequency wave-breaking variability is reflected in long-term anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Euro-Atlantic sector. The 100-year periods with the most and least double wave-breaking occurrences display significant and opposite anomalies in both upper and lower-level wind, as well as in the frequency of extreme temperature events and in the magnitude of wind destructiveness over Europe. The latter broadly resembles the wind destructiveness anomalies associated with individual double wave-breaking instances in reanalysis data. The existence of low-frequency variability in an atmospheric pattern related to high-impact weather events has important implications for the study and interpretation of climate change projections and of possible future NAO changes.

Changes in North Atlantic Oscillation drove Population Migrations and the Collapse of the Western Roman Empire

Shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from 1–2 to 0–1 in four episodes increased droughts on the Roman Empire’s periphery and created push factors for migrations. These climatic events are associated with the movements of the Cimbri and Teutones from 113–101 B.C., the Marcomanni and Quadi from 164 to 180 A.D., the Goths in 376 A.D., and the broad population movements of the Migration Period from 500 to 600 A.D. Weakening of the NAO in the instrumental record of the NAO have been associated with a shift to drought in the areas of origin for the Cimbri, Quadi, Visigoths, Ostrogoths, Huns, and Slavs. While other climate indices indicate deteriorating climate after 200 A.D. and cooler conditions after 500 A.D., the NAO may indicate a specific cause for the punctuated history of migrations in Late Antiquity. Periodic weakening of the NAO caused drought in the regions of origin for tribes in antiquity, and may have created a powerful push factor for human migration. While climate change is frequently considered as a threat to sustainability, its role as a conflict amplifier in history may be one of its largest impacts on populations.

Long-Term Trends of Air Temperature Changes in Industrial and Economic Centres of North-Western and Central Federal Districts of Russia and Their Causes

Carried out the review and analysis of long-term variability of mean annual and mean during winter temperature in 13 major administrative and industrial centers of the North-West and Central federal district – Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Petrozavodsk, St. Petersburg, Pskov, Novgorod, Kaliningrad, Moscow, Smolensk, Tambov, Kostroma, Kursk and Voronezh. On the basis of the method of cluster analysis identified the major regional characteristics variability in air temperature. An assessment of the correlation between the dynamics of the 4 values of climatic indices of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic – NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and long-term changes in air temperature. Identified and analyzed interannual trends cooling trend over the winter period. Presented a preliminary assessment of the intensity of the impact of changes in temperature conditions on industry and the economy of the North-West and central federal districts in relation to a possible cooling.

Centennial-scale vegetation and North Atlantic Oscillation changes during the Late Holocene in the southern Iberia

High-reso CE to lution pollen analysis, charcoal, non-pollen palynomorphs and magnetic susceptibility have been analyzed in the sediment record of a peat bog in Sierra Nevada in southern Iberia. The study of these proxies provided the reconstruction of vegetation, climate, fire and human activity of the last ∼4500 cal yr BP. A progressive trend towards aridification during the late Holocene is observed in this record. This trend is interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale variability of relatively more humid and arid periods. Arid conditions are recorded between ∼4000 and 3100 cal yr BP, being characterized by a decline in arboreal pollen and with a spike in magnetic susceptibility. This is followed by a relatively humid period from ∼3100 to 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding partially with the Iberian-Roman Humid Period, and is indicated by the increase of Pinus and the decrease in xerophytic taxa. The last 1500 cal yr BP are characterized by several centennial-scale climatic oscillations. Generally arid conditions from ∼450 to 1300 CE, depicted by a decrease in Pinus and an increase in Artemisia, comprise the Dark Ages and the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Since ∼ 1300 to 1850 CE pronounced oscillations occur between relatively humid and arid conditions. Four periods depicted by relatively higher Pinus coinciding with the beginning and end of the Little Ice Age are interrupted by three arid events characterized by an increase in Artemisia. These alternating arid and humid shifts could be explained by centennial-scale changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and solar activity.

A switch in the Atlantic Oscillation correlates with inter-annual changes in foraging location and food habits of Macaronesian shearwaters (Puffinus baroli) nesting on two islands of the sub-tropical Atlantic Ocean

Changes in oceanographic conditions, shaped by changes in large-scale atmospheric phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), alters the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. Such signals are readily captured by marine top predators, given that their use of foraging habitats and diets change when the NAO changes. In this study we assessed sexual, seasonal and annual (2010/11–2012/13) differences in diet, trophic and isotopic niche (using δ15N and δ13C values of whole blood, 1st primary, 8th secondary and breast feathers), foraging locations and oceanographic variation within foraging areas for Macaronesian shearwaters' (Puffinus baroli) during two years of contrasting NAO values, and between two sub-tropical islands 330km apart in the North Atlantic Ocean, Cima Islet and Selvagem Grande. These two locations provide contrasting oceanographic foraging regimes for the birds, because the second colony is much closer to the African coast (375 vs 650km), and, therefore, to the upwelling area of the Canary Current. There was a marked environmental perturbation in 2010/2011, related with a negative NAO Index and lower marine productivity (lower concentration of Chlorophyll a). This event corresponded to the Macaronesian shearwaters feeding farther north and west, which was readily seen in change of both δ15N and δ13C values, and in a higher intake of cephalopods. Diet and stable isotopes did not differ between sexes. Regurgitation analysis indicate a dominance of cephalopods in both islands, but prey fish were important for Selvagem Grande in 2012 and cephalopods for Cima Islet in 2011. Both δ15N and δ13C values were significantly higher for Cima Islet than for Selvagem Grande, irrespective of year, season and tissue sampled. SIBER analysis showed smaller isotopic niches for the breeding period. Our study suggests that during years of poor environmental conditions Macaronesian shearwaters shift their foraging location to more pelagic waters, take more cephalopods and overall present a narrower isotopic niche.

Recent seasonal asymmetric changes in the NAO (a marked summer decline and increased winter variability) and associated changes in the AO and Greenland Blocking Index

Recent changes are found in the means and variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. There has been a sustained significant recent decrease in the summer NAO since the 1990s and, at the same time, a striking increase in variability of the winter – especially December – NAO that resulted in three of five (two of five) record high (record low) NAO Decembers occurring during 2004–2013 in the 115-year record. These NAO changes are related to an increasing trend in the Greenland Blocking Index (GBI, high pressure over Greenland) in summer and a more variable GBI in December. The enhanced early winter NAO variability originates mainly at the southern node of the NAO but is also related to the more variable GBI in December. Transition seasons (spring and autumn) have remained relatively unchanged over the last 30 years. These results are corroborated using several NAO indices. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, although strongly correlated with the NAO, does not show the recent sustained significant summer decrease, but it does show enhanced early winter variability. These recent observed changes are not present in the current generation of global climate models, although the latest process studies do offer insight into their causes. We invoke several plausible climate forcings and feedbacks to explain the recent NAO changes.

Land–sea climatic variability in the eastern North Atlantic subtropical region over the last 14,200 years: Atmospheric and oceanic processes at different timescales

High-temporal resolution analysis of different climatic tracers (pollen, foraminiferal-based winter sea surface temperature (SST), benthic foraminiferal δ18O) from marine core MD95-2042, retrieved off SW Iberia, allows us to directly compare, without any chronological ambiguity, Mediterranean vegetation and eastern North Atlantic winter SST changes for the last 14.2 kyr. We identify on land and in the ocean several climatic phases such as the end of the warm and humid Bølling–Allerød, the cold and dry Younger Dryas, and the warm and humid Holocene with the Mediterranean forest (MF) optimum between 9.6 and 8.1 kyr. This record shows that, at multi-centennial timescale (~800 years), declines in forest cover generally related to dry and cool periods in southern Iberia are synchronous with cold SST in the eastern part of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. At multi-centennial timescale, changes in thermohaline circulation, via freshwater content fluctuations, appear to be responsible for the coupling between dryness in Iberia and SST cooling in eastern North Atlantic subtropical gyre. In contrast, some Holocene events include centennial-scale oscillations (~100 years) marked by MF declines in southern Iberia concomitant with SST warming in the eastern North Atlantic subtropical gyre. This climatic pattern is similar to that observed at decadal timescale under the influence of the positive mode of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We suggest, therefore, that synchronous SW Iberian dryness and SST warming at centennial timescale could be explained by atmospheric fluctuations related to NAO changes.

Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions

There is evidence that the observed changes in winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drive a significant portion of Atlantic Multi Decadal Variability (AMV). However, whether the observed decadal NAO changes can be forced by the ocean is controversial. There is also evidence that artificially imposed multi-decadal stratospheric changes can impact the troposphere in winter. But the origins of such stratospheric changes are still unclear, especially in early to mid winter, where the radiative ozone-impact is negligible. Here we show, through observational analysis and atmospheric model experiments, that large-scale Atlantic warming associated with AMV drives high-latitude precursory stratospheric warming in early to mid winter that propagates downward resulting in a negative tropospheric NAO in late winter. The mechanism involves stratosphere/troposphere dynamical coupling, and can be simulated to a large extent, but only with a stratosphere resolving model (i.e., high-top). Further analysis shows that this precursory stratospheric response can be explained by the shift of the daily extremes toward more major stratospheric warming events. This shift cannot be simulated with the atmospheric (low-top) model configuration that poorly resolves the stratosphere and implements a sponge layer in upper model levels. While the potential role of the stratosphere in multi-decadal NAO and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation changes has been recognised, our results show that the stratosphere is an essential element of extra-tropical atmospheric response to ocean variability. Our findings suggest that the use of stratosphere resolving models should improve the simulation, prediction, and projection of extra-tropical climate, and lead to a better understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change.

<i>Brief communication</i> "Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet"

Abstract. Since 2007, there has been a series of surface melt records over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), continuing the trend towards increased melt observed since the end of the 1990's. The last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration for the last two decades. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June–July–August) mean temperature from reanalyses at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that ~70% of the 1993–2012 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones centred over the GrIS at the surface and at 500 hPa has doubled since the end of 1990's, which induces more frequent southerly warm air advection along the western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are twice as frequent as before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over GrIS and CAA cannot be considered as a long-term climate warming but are more a consequence of NAO variability affecting atmospheric heat transport. Although no global model from the CMIP5 database projects subsequent significant changes in NAO through this century, we cannot exclude the possibility that the observed NAO changes are due to global warming.

Relationship between NAO and drought disasters in northwestern China in the last millennium

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the Northern Hemisphere climate system. Although there is growing interest in the connection between NAO and precipitation change in China, there are few studies concerning that connection in northwestern China. Based on fine-grained historical drought disaster records and NAO proxies, we explored quantitatively their possible connection in northwestern China over the past millennium at the multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Statistical results show that NAO and drought disaster were negatively correlated, as positive modes of NAO caused northward-displaced, stronger-than average mid-latitude Westerlies with an enhanced latitudinal water vapor gradient into the central Asian drylands, resulting in reduced drought frequency and intensity in northwestern China. But, their correlation was out-of-phase during the Little Ice Age because of the southward shifting of monsoon, Westerlies, and the East Asian Jet Stream brought by long-term land surface cooling. As it has been indicated that the precipitation in northwestern China is also determined by El Niño-Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic sea surface and air temperature aside from NAO, further studies are needed to evaluate their individual roles and combined impacts upon the drought disaster there.

A multi‐century record of linked nearshore and coastal change

ABSTRACTUsing geographic information system (GIS) and field measurements the nearshore morphological variability of a headland bay beach at Tenby, West Wales (51·66 N; –4·71 W) was assessed over historical timeframes (1748–2007). Three areas chosen for detailed analysis were the area between mean low water (MLW) and lowest astronomical tide (LAT) contours; LAT and one fathom contours; and one and two fathom contours. Estuary closurec. 1855 has been suggested as the genesis for long‐term beach evolution and did have an initial effect, with northward dune migration and reduced flushing effects. However, this research suggests nearshore bank migration and retrogradation associated with spit collapse took place prior to closure and continued throughout the assessed timeframe. Historical data revealed patterns of shoreward migration demonstrated by changes in orientation, Giltar headland acting as a pivot. Variations in sandbank position correlated with areal reduction of both Giltar spit and White Bank. Temporal offshore areal loss was contrasted against variable gains inshore as offshore banks welded to the beachface. Annual volumetric change analyses represented by profiles that extend 1 km offshore, confirmed Giltar spit and White Bank erosion rates of 91 m3 yr–1and 458 m3 yr–1respectively, and 220 m3 yr–1beachface accretion. Diminution of sediment supply observed over historical timescales was supported by decadal evidence. Here, profile analysis revealed a trend of decreasing volumes both updrift and within the study area, and increasing downdrift volumes. This explained why proximal detachment and sediment redistribution had occurred. Distinct reversal's in shoreline trend (rotation) corresponded to nearshore change; therefore, variations in seabed configuration triggered shoreface dynamic change over century timescales. Five‐year cumulative average changes in North Atlantic Oscillation were further correlated to this reversal. As comparable scenarios are likely to exist at other worldwide coastal locations, similar analyses should be incorporated into shoreline monitoring programmes. Consequently, these assessments would inform shoreline trends and support coastal management decisions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tropospheric temperature interannual variations associated with decadal changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper studies the causes and mechanisms of the formation of extreme anomalies in the tropospheric temperature associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our approach is based on understanding that, in the annual cycle, continental-scale tropospheric temperature anomalies (planetary waves with longitudinal wave numbers of 1–3) can both intensify under the direct action of heat inflow as an energy source for these anomalies (radiation cooling/heating) and weaken as a result of the destructive action of heat inflow under temperature advections with the opposite (to the heat inflow) sign [4, 5]. According to the monthly mean data of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis over the 40-year period, seasonal air temperature anomalies have been studied at the level 850 hPa (T850) in different regions of Eurasia. It has been confirmed that the negative NAO phase in winter is favorable for preserving negative T850 anomalies in the east of the continent at this time of year, whereas the positive NAO phase is favorable for negative T850 anomalies in the west. However, it has been revealed that this dependence was critically violated during the winter seasons approximately two years before an extreme event. This was explained by the fact that, in those years, the NAO influence on winter T850 anomalies was limited. This paper formally considers a certain mechanism of anomalous heat inflow as an energy source for these anomalies with functions of the formation (intensification) of negative T850 anomalies in winter and positive T850 anomalies in summer, as well as with a function of the limitation of the influence of the predominant dynamic mode on some regions of the continent. It is shown that, in the 1960s, T850 anomalies with negative NAO indices in the east of the continent were governed by a hypothetic mechanism of heat inflow as an energy source for anomalies; in 1980s, at prolonged positive NAO indices, T850 anomalies in the west of the continent could also be governed by this mechanism. This paper, within the accepted degree of detail, demonstrates the process of limitation of the NAO influence in some years (1966, 1967, 1987, and 1988), which leads to an unbalance of the anomalies and a possible extreme phenomenon. It is demonstrated that, in some seasons, the anomalies were not governed by the hypothetic mechanism of the heat inflow under the action of large NAO changes and a complete upset of the annual cycle of anomalies. Determining the first indicators of the unbalance, which can lead to extreme anomalies, is shown to be difficult if it is based only on an analysis of winter seasons (as is the case with most of the works) without invoking the annual trends of the tropospheric temperature and the NAO index.

On the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on temperature and salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic intermediate and deep waters

Abstract Sarafanov, A. 2009. On the effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on temperature and salinity of the subpolar North Atlantic intermediate and deep waters. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1448–1454. The close relationship between the observed water mass properties and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index (1950–2000s; r2 ≈ 0.65) implies that changes in the NAO-related atmospheric forcing may account for up to two-thirds of thermohaline changes at the intermediate and deep levels in the subpolar North Atlantic on a decadal time-scale. Persistent NAO decline (amplification) results in increase (decrease) in temperature and salinity in the intermediate–deep water column. A general mechanism explaining the close link between the NAO and coherent decadal changes in the intermediate and deep-water temperature and salinity in the region is inferred from the observed changes in the regional circulation and water mass properties. Two factors dominate this link: (i) intensity of convection in the Labrador Sea controlling injection of relatively cold freshwater into the intermediate layer, and (ii) zonal extension of the Subpolar Gyre that regulates the relative contribution of cold fresh subpolar water and warm saline subtropical water to the deep-water formation.

Is the observed NAO variability during the instrumental record unusual?

Observed multidecadal variability (30 yr running means, trends, and moving standard deviations) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the instrumental record is compared to that simulated by two different coupled general circulation models in extended‐range control experiments. Simulated NAO exhibits strong low frequency fluctuations, even on multi‐centennial time scale. Observed multi‐decadal NAO variations agree well with the model variability. Trend probability distribution functions, observed and simulated, were not found to be different with statistical significance. Thus, multi‐decadal NAO changes similar to those observed during the instrumental record, including the recent increase in 1965–1995, may be internally generated within the coupled atmosphere‐ocean system without considering external forcing.