North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Research Articles

Mixing and Geometry in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractVertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO2 fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our findings show the geometry of mixing structures in the upper and deep ocean layers by means of Lagrangian Coherent Structures. This tool identifies among others, zones linked to vertical transport and characterizes vertical transport time scales. We focus the study in two regions. The first one is the Flemish Cap region, a zone of interaction between the major AMOC components, where our analysis identifies a domain of deep waters that ascend very rapidly to the ocean surface. The second one is the Irminger Sea, where our analysis confirms the existence of a downwelling zone, and reveals a previously unreported upwelling connection between very deep waters and the ocean surface.

Dynamical stability indicator based on autoregressive moving-average models: Critical transitions and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

A statistical indicator for dynamic stability, known as the Υ indicator, is used to gauge the stability and, hence, detect approaching tipping points of simulation data from a reduced five-box model of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exposed to a time-dependent hosing function. The hosing function simulates the influx of fresh water due to the melting of the Greenland ice sheet and increased precipitation in the North Atlantic. The Υ indicator is designed to detect changes in the memory properties of the dynamics and is based on fitting auto-regressive moving-average models in a sliding window approach to time series data. An increase in memory properties is interpreted as a sign of dynamical instability. The performance of the indicator is tested on time series subject to different types of tipping, namely, bifurcation-induced, noise-induced, and rate-induced tipping. The numerical analysis shows that the indicator indeed responds to the different types of induced instabilities. Finally, the indicator is applied to two AMOC time series from a full complexity Earth systems model (CESM2). Compared with the doubling CO scenario, the quadrupling CO scenario results in stronger dynamical instability of the AMOC during its weakening phase.

Middle-Late Pleistocene Eastern Mediterranean nutricline depth and coccolith preservation linked to Monsoon activity and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

The eastern Mediterranean Sea lies under the influence of high- and low-latitude climatic systems. The northern part of the basin is affected by Atlantic depressions and continental and polar air masses that promote intermediate and deep-water formation. The southern part is influenced by subtropical conditions and monsoon activity. Monsoon intensification results in enhanced freshwater discharge from the Nile River and other (now dry) systems along the North African margin. This freshwater influx into the Mediterranean Sea reduces surface water buoyancy loss. Disentangling the influences of these diverse climatic forcings is hindered by inherent proxy data limitations and by interactions between the climatic forcings. Here we use a wealth of published and new paleoclimate records across Termination II to understand the impacts of the higher latitude and subtropical/monsoon climate influences on coccolithophore ecology and holococcolith preservation in Aegean Sea sediment core LC21. We then use these findings to interpret coccolith assemblage variations at Ocean Drilling Program Site 967 (located nearby LC21, at the Eratosthenes Seamount) during multiple glacial-interglacial cycles across the Middle Pleistocene (marine isotopic stages 14–9). The LC21 analysis suggests that holococcolith preservation was enhanced during Heinrich Stadial 11 (∼133 ka) and cold spell C26 (∼119 ka). These two events have been previously linked to cold conditions in the North Atlantic and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakening. We propose that associated atmospheric perturbations over the Mediterranean Sea promoted deep-water formation, and thus holococcolith preservation. Similarly, in the Middle Pleistocene (MIS 14-9) of Site 967, we observe temporal coincidence between ten episodes of enhanced holococcolith preservation and episodes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. In Site 967, we also identified repeated fluctuations in placoliths and in Florisphaera profunda, which indicate nutricline depth variations. The development of a deep chlorophyll maximum is associated with the North Africa and wet phases, as recently observed using elemental proxy records at Site 967, during the deposition of sapropel layers. A further deep chlorophyll maximum development is identified during MISs 12 and 10, as a result of pycnocline and nutricline shoaling within the lower part of the photic zone due to glacial sea-level lowering and water mass transport reduction at both the Gibraltar and Sicily Straits. Finally, enhanced holococcolith preservation during cold/dry events is clearly correlated to weakened monsoon activity in both Africa and Asia.

The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate through its transport of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. Decadal changes in the AMOC, whether through internal variability or anthropogenically forced weakening, therefore have wide-ranging impacts. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of contemporary decadal variability in the AMOC, bringing together evidence from observations, ocean reanalyses, forced models and AMOC proxies. Since 1980, there is evidence for periods of strengthening and weakening, although the magnitudes of change (5–25%) are uncertain. In the subpolar North Atlantic, the AMOC strengthened until the mid-1990s and then weakened until the early 2010s, with some evidence of a strengthening thereafter; these changes are probably linked to buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the subtropics, there is some evidence of the AMOC strengthening from 2001 to 2005 and strong evidence of a weakening from 2005 to 2014. Such large interannual and decadal variability complicates the detection of ongoing long-term trends, but does not preclude a weakening associated with anthropogenic warming. Research priorities include developing robust and sustainable solutions for the long-term monitoring of the AMOC, observation–modelling collaborations to improve the representation of processes in the North Atlantic and better ways to distinguish anthropogenic weakening from internal variability.

Response of Northern North Atlantic and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Reduced and Enhanced Wind Stress Forcing

AbstractSurface wind stress strongly influences Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability on interannual time scales. On longer time scales, however, its role in AMOC variations is less clear. Here, we show a nonlinear AMOC response to globally reduced and enhanced wind stress forcing, based on sensitivity experiments with MPI‐ESM1.2. Under reduced wind stress forcing, the AMOC strength strongly decreases. In contrast, under enhanced wind stress forcing the AMOC strength increases only in the first decades and then decreases, stabilizing at a value similar to the reference simulation. To reveal possible mechanisms underlying this response, we assess the response of the northern North Atlantic circulation and climate to the changed wind stress forcing. Initially, the response is linear: reduced wind stress forcing weakens the gyre circulation and the associated heat and salt transport, leading to larger winter sea ice extent and a shutdown of subpolar deep convection. In the Nordic Seas, the fresher and lighter subsurface state leads to a decrease in the baroclinic pressure and the overflow strength. Under enhanced wind stress forcing, initially, the opposite is happening. However, eventually, subpolar surface density anomalies are determined by warmer temperature rather than increased salinity, leading to a decrease in surface density and a weakening of subpolar deep convection. The resulting AMOC weakening reduces the Atlantic inflow salinity, and subsequently the Nordic Seas baroclinic pressure and overflow strength. The quasi‐equilibrium response of the northern North Atlantic circulation and climate under enhanced wind stress forcing differs from the reference simulation, even though the AMOC strength converges.

Idealised modelling of offshore-forced sea level hot spots and boundary waves along the North American East Coast

Hot spots of sea level variability along the North American East Coast have been shown to shift in latitude repeatedly over the past 95 years and connections with a number of forcing phenomena, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), have been suggested. Using a barotropic 1/12° NEMO model of the North American East Coast (to represent the upper ocean and a homogeneous shelf), we investigate the coastal sea level response to remote sea surface height (SSH) variability along the upper continental slope. Hilbert transform Complex EOF analysis is used to investigate the responses to interannual changes in the strength of the mean winds and an idealised NAO. Variability in the mean winds produces in-phase coastal sea level variability along the entire coastline and is driven by a SSH anomaly in the subpolar gyre. Variability due to the NAO forcing is in phase along the coast south of Cape Hatteras. Interannual coastal sea level variability at a given latitude is found to be driven by off-shore SSH anomalies originating many degrees of latitude (∼100s km) further north, and linear barotropic trapped wave theory is used to explain the mechanism. A comparison of the results from an analytical model with those from the numerical model is used to suggest that the boundary wave mechanism is also relevant for understanding the coastal response to interior sea level change over longer time periods. Nonlinear effects are found not to significantly modify the character of the linear solution.

Evidence of abrupt climate change at 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka in the central Canadian Arctic: Connection to the North Atlantic and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

This study presents the results of a multi-proxy analysis of a Holocene lacustrine sediment sequence recovered from a small tundra lake in the central Canadian Arctic and links climatic variations there to the North Atlantic. Chironomid and pollen-based reconstructions of mean July air temperature (MJAT) document notable deviations at 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka. Chironomid-inferred July air temperature is depressed by 1.4 °C at 9.3 ka and 1.7 °C at 8.2 ka relative to the long-term chironomid-inferred Holocene average of 9.4 °C. These cooling events also correspond to an increase in Gramineae (Poaceae) and a decrease in Betula pollen, reflecting a decrease in the density of dwarf birch cover. Concurrent, abrupt increases in several diatom taxa, including aerophilic epiphytes, and Sphagnum indicate an expansion of moss habitats as a result of wetter conditions. The expression and timing of the cooling evidenced at TK2 during the early Holocene is consistent with abrupt climate events identified in the North Atlantic and coincides with intervals of North Atlantic cooling and weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This research, which improves our understanding of the spatial extent and magnitude of the 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka events in the central Canadian Arctic, serves as a benchmark for coupled-ocean atmosphere climate models simulating the response of the climate system to abrupt climate events and provides insight in marine-atmosphere teleconnections in the circum-North Atlantic region.

Local and Downstream Relationships between Labrador Sea Water Volume and North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability

Abstract While it has generally been understood that the production of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) impacts the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), this relationship has not been explored extensively or validated against observations. To explore this relationship, a suite of global ocean–sea ice models forced by the same interannually varying atmospheric dataset, varying in resolution from non-eddy-permitting to eddy-permitting (1°–1/4°), is analyzed to investigate the local and downstream relationships between LSW formation and the MOC on interannual to decadal time scales. While all models display a strong relationship between changes in the LSW volume and the MOC in the Labrador Sea, this relationship degrades considerably downstream of the Labrador Sea. In particular, there is no consistent pattern among the models in the North Atlantic subtropical basin over interannual to decadal time scales. Furthermore, the strong response of the MOC in the Labrador Sea to LSW volume changes in that basin may be biased by the overproduction of LSW in many models compared to observations. This analysis shows that changes in LSW volume in the Labrador Sea cannot be clearly and consistently linked to a coherent MOC response across latitudes over interannual to decadal time scales in ocean hindcast simulations of the last half century. Similarly, no coherent relationships are identified between the MOC and the Labrador Sea mixed layer depth or the density of newly formed LSW across latitudes or across models over interannual to decadal time scales.

Palynology of the Last Interglacial Complex at Lake Ohrid: palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic inferences

In this article, we present new, high-resolution, pollen results obtained from the DEEP site sequence recovered from Lake Ohrid (Albania/FYROM) for the Last Interglacial Complex (LIC), corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS 5) of the marine isotope stratigraphy. LIC covers the period between 130 and 70 ka and includes the Eemian (Last Interglacial, LI) and the succession of stadial and interstadial phases of the Early Last Glacial.During the LIC, the pollen record shows an alternation of periods characterized by forest and open vegetation, clearly resembling the well-known vegetational succession of other European records. Our results reveal three key phases for the LI: a first period (128-125 ka) with a rapid increase in temperature and precipitation, a central phase (125–118.5 ka) characterized by a slight cooling, and a late phase (118.5–112 ka), with a decline both in temperatures and precipitation. Besides the LI, we identify four more forested periods dominated by mesophilous trees and intercalated by colder and drier steppe phases, during which, however, most arboreal taxa never disappear.During the Early Last Glacial we also identify several abrupt events that can be correlated to the succession of cold events recorded in the Greenland ice core records, associated to a weakening of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.The new high-resolution record indicates that Lake Ohrid is an important site to understand the response of vegetation to fluctuations in regional moisture availability and temperature changes, and thus provides new evidence for the connection between the Mediterranean Region and Northern Hemisphere climate oscillations.

Mediterranean Outflow Water variability during the Early Pleistocene

Abstract. Gaining insights into the evolution of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) during the Early Pleistocene has been so far hampered by the lack of available palaeoclimatic archives. Here we present the first benthic foraminifera stable oxygen and carbon isotope records and grain-size data from IODP Expedition 339 Site U1389 presently located within the upper core of the MOW in the Gulf of Cadiz for the time interval between 2.6 and 1.8 Ma. A comparison with an intermediate water mass record from the Mediterranean Sea strongly suggest an active MOW supplying Site U1389 on glacial–interglacial timescales during the Early Pleistocene. We also find indication that the increasing presence of MOW in the Gulf of Cadiz during the investigated time interval aligns with the progressive northward protrusion of Mediterranean sourced intermediate water masses into the North Atlantic, possibly modulating the intensification of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at the same time. Additionally, our results suggest that MOW flow strength was already governed by precession and semi-precession cyclicity during the Early Pleistocene against the background of glacial–interglacial variability.

Observed Basin-Scale Response of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Wind Stress Forcing

Abstract The response of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to wind stress forcing is investigated from an observational standpoint, using four time series of overturning transports below and relative to 1000 m, overlapping by 3.6 yr. These time series are derived from four mooring arrays located on the western boundary of the North Atlantic: the RAPID Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE) array (42.5°N), the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Line W array (39°N), RAPID–MOC/MOCHA (26.5°N), and the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array (16°N). Using modal decompositions of the analytic cross-correlation between transports and wind stress, the basin-scale wind stress is shown to significantly drive the MOC coherently at four latitudes, on the time scales available for this study. The dominant mode of covariance is interpreted as rapid barotropic oceanic adjustments to wind stress forcing, eventually forming two counterrotating Ekman overturning cells centered on the tropics and subtropical gyre. A second mode of covariance appears related to patterns of wind stress and wind stress curl associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, spinning anomalous horizontal circulations that likely interact with topography to form overturning cells.

Further intensification of deep convection in the Labrador Sea in 2016

AbstractThere has been a progressive deepening of winter convection in the Labrador Sea since 2012, with the individual profile maximum depth exceeding 1800 m since 2014 and reaching 2100 m in 2016. This increase, during repeated positive phases of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), resembles that during the formation of the record depth (2500 m) Labrador Sea Water (LSW) class in 1987–1994, attributed to repeated positive NAO forcing having provided critical preconditioning. The 2012–2016 LSW class is one of the deepest and most persistent ever observed (back to 1938). Year‐round observations from profiling Argo floats since 2002 complemented by annual surveys are providing novel information on the seasonal‐to‐decadal evolution of LSW, such as its variable density, the recent multiyear preconditioning, and its 2016 density being the highest since the mid‐1990s. These findings should help international observation programs and numerical model studies investigating LSW influences on the subpolar North Atlantic and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Quantitative reconstruction of Holocene sea ice and sea surface temperature off West Greenland from the first regional diatom data set

AbstractHolocene oceanographic conditions in Disko Bay, West Greenland, were reconstructed from high‐resolution diatom records derived from two marine sediment cores. A modern data set composed of 35 dated surface sediment samples collected along the West Greenland coast accompanied by remote sensing data was used to develop a diatom transfer function to reconstruct April sea ice concentration (SIC) supported by July sea surface temperature (SST) in the area. Our quantitative reconstruction shows that oceanographic changes recorded throughout the last ~11,000 years reflect seasonal interplay between spring (April SIC) and summer (July SST) conditions. Our records show clear correlation with climate patterns identified from ice core data from GISP2 and Agassiz‐Renland for the early to middle Holocene. The early Holocene deglaciation of western Greenland Ice Sheet was characterized in Disko Bay by initial strong centennial‐scale fluctuations in April SIC with amplitude of over 40%, followed by high April SIC and July SST. These conditions correspond to a general warming of the climate in the Northern Hemisphere. A decrease in April SIC and July SST was recorded during the Holocene Thermal Optimum reflecting more stable spring‐summer conditions in Disko Bay. During the late Holocene, high April SIC characterized the Medieval Climate Anomaly, while high July SST prevailed during the Little Ice Age, supporting previously identified antiphase relationship between surface waters in West Greenland and climate in NW Europe. This antiphase pattern might reflect seasonal variations in regional oceanographic conditions and large‐scale fluctuations within the North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Strong winter cooling over the Irminger Sea in winter 2014–2015, exceptional deep convection, and the emergence of anomalously low SST

AbstractDeep convection is presumed to be vital for the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, even though observational evidence for the link remains inconclusive. Modeling studies have suggested that convection will weaken as a result of enhanced freshwater input. The emergence of anomalously low sea surface temperature in the subpolar North Atlantic has led to speculation that this process is already at work. Here we show that strong atmospheric forcing in the winter of 2014–2015, associated with a high North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, produced record mixed layer depths in the Irminger Sea. Local mixing removed the stratification of the upper 1400 m and ventilated the basin to middepths resembling a state similar to the mid‐1990s when a positive NAO also prevailed. We show that the strong local atmospheric forcing is predominantly responsible for the negative sea surface temperature anomalies observed in the subpolar North Atlantic in 2015 and that there is no evidence of permanently weakened deep convection.

Dissolved Organic Carbon in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

The quantitative role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export is evaluated by combining DOC measurements with observed water mass transports. In the eastern subpolar North Atlantic, both upper and lower limbs of the AMOC transport high-DOC waters. Deep water formation that connects the two limbs of the AMOC results in a high downward export of non-refractory DOC (197 Tg-C·yr−1). Subsequent remineralization in the lower limb of the AMOC, between subpolar and subtropical latitudes, consumes 72% of the DOC exported by the whole Atlantic Ocean. The contribution of DOC to the carbon sequestration in the North Atlantic Ocean (62 Tg-C·yr−1) is considerable and represents almost a third of the atmospheric CO2 uptake in the region.

Punctuated Shutdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during Greenland Stadial 1.

The Greenland Stadial 1 (GS-1; ~12.9 to 11.65 kyr cal BP) was a period of North Atlantic cooling, thought to have been initiated by North America fresh water runoff that caused a sustained reduction of North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), resulting in an antiphase temperature response between the hemispheres (the ‘bipolar seesaw’). Here we exploit sub-fossil New Zealand kauri trees to report the first securely dated, decadally-resolved atmospheric radiocarbon (14C) record spanning GS-1. By precisely aligning Southern and Northern Hemisphere tree-ring 14C records with marine 14C sequences we document two relatively short periods of AMOC collapse during the stadial, at ~12,920-12,640 cal BP and 12,050-11,900 cal BP. In addition, our data show that the interhemispheric atmospheric 14C offset was close to zero prior to GS-1, before reaching ‘near-modern’ values at ~12,660 cal BP, consistent with synchronous recovery of overturning in both hemispheres and increased Southern Ocean ventilation. Hence, sustained North Atlantic cooling across GS-1 was not driven by a prolonged AMOC reduction but probably due to an equatorward migration of the Polar Front, reducing the advection of southwesterly air masses to high latitudes. Our findings suggest opposing hemispheric temperature trends were driven by atmospheric teleconnections, rather than AMOC changes.

North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variations from GRACE ocean bottom pressure anomalies

AbstractConcerns about North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (NAMOC) changes imply the need for a continuous, large‐scale observation capability to detect changes on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we present the first measurements of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water (LNADW) transport changes using only time‐variable gravity observations from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites from 2003 until now. Improved monthly gravity field retrievals allow the detection of North Atlantic interannual bottom pressure anomalies and LNADW transport estimates that are in good agreement with those from the Rapid Climate Change‐Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID/MOCHA). Concurrent with the observed AMOC transport anomalies from late 2009 through early 2010, GRACE measured ocean bottom pressures changes in the 3000–5000 m deep western North Atlantic on the order of 20 mm‐H2O (200 Pa), implying a southward volume transport anomaly in that layer of approximately −5.5 sverdrup. Our results highlight the efficacy of space gravimetry for observing AMOC variations to evaluate latitudinal coherency and long‐term variability.

Response of the subtropical North Atlantic surface hydrography on deglacial and Holocene AMOC changes

AbstractThe North Atlantic subtropical gyre (STG) circulates warm waters between 10 and 40°N and is a potential area of heat storage during periods of reduced North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), when warm salt‐rich waters are retained in the subtropics. In this study, we investigated multicentennial to millennial scale changes in subtropical North Atlantic hydrography in response to AMOC changes during the last deglaciation and early Holocene, using sediment cores MD08‐3180 and GEOFAR KF16. The coring site (38°N) is situated near the boundary between transitional eastern North Atlantic waters and STG waters that is formed by the Azores Front. Hydrographic changes are reconstructed using new stable isotope data of benthic and subsurface dwelling planktonic foraminifera, Mg/Ca measurements on planktonic foraminifera, and planktonic foraminifera abundances that are supplemented with published sea surface temperature and stable isotope data. These multiproxy data indicate a close coupling between the latitudinal position of the northern STG boundary and deglacial AMOC modes. During weak AMOC phases (Heinrich event 1, Younger Dryas (YD), 8.2 ka event), Northern Hemisphere subpolar water reached down to the northern STG boundary, displacing the boundary southward. During the Bølling‐Allerød warm period, a strong warming trend of the subtropical region to 19°C is observed. A cooling of the sea surface temperature by 6°C during the YD is accompanied by ongoing northward transport of warm subsurface water that might have contributed to the restart of AMOC.

On the formation of the lower limb of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

On the formation of the lower limb of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Low‐frequency storminess signal at Bermuda linked to cooling events in the North Atlantic region

AbstractNorth Atlantic climate archives provide evidence for increased storm activity during the Little Ice Age (150 to 600 calibrated years (cal years) B.P.) and centered at 1700 and 3000 cal years B.P., typically in centennial‐scale sedimentary records. Meteorological (tropical versus extratropical storms) and climate forcings of this signal remain poorly understood, although variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are frequently hypothesized to be involved. Here we present records of late Holocene storminess and coastal temperature change from a Bermudian submarine cave that is hydrographically circulated with the coastal ocean. Thermal variability in the cave is documented by stable oxygen isotope values of cave benthic foraminifera, which document a close linkage between regional temperature change and NAO phasing during the late Holocene. However, erosion of terrestrial sediment into the submarine cave provides a “storminess signal” that correlates with higher‐latitude storminess archives and broader North Atlantic cooling events. Understanding the driver of this storminess signal will require higher‐resolution storm records to disentangle the contribution of tropical versus extratropical cyclones and a better understanding of cyclone activity during hemispheric cooling periods. Most importantly, however, the signal in Bermuda appears more closely correlated with proxy‐based evidence for subtle AMOC reductions than NAO phasing.