North Atlantic Area Research Articles

An Agent-Based Model of Human–Whale Interactions in the North Atlantic

We created an agent-based model (ABM; a computational model) for human–whale interactions in the North Atlantic area. We specifically looked at boats, lobster lines, and rogue fishnet interactions with the North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis), and we assessed the conditions under which such interactions are more likely to result in injuries and fatalities for this critically endangered whale, such as the density of ships in the water. ABMs are a methodology particularly useful in data poor problems (where machine learning cannot be used), and are based on rules of interactions between various agents (human and nonhuman) and/or a specific physical environment; they can showcase and assess potential future scenarios. We informed our model with current data from the North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and present our preliminary findings here.

Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions

AbstractDecadal predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. In this study we investigate the prediction skill of the full underlying surface temperature distributions on global and European scales. We investigate initialized hindcast simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model decadal prediction system and compare the distribution of seasonal daily temperatures with estimates of the climatology and uninitialized historical simulations. In the analysis we show that the initialized prediction system has advantages in particular in the North Atlantic area and allow so to make reliable predictions for the whole temperature spectrum for two to 10 years ahead. We also demonstrate that the capability of initialized climate predictions to predict the temperature distribution depends on the season.

THE DEFENCE POLICY OF DENMARK AFTER THE 2022 REFERENDUM

The article deals with the impact of the special relationship with the US on the three aspects of Danish foreign policy: the approach to the EU strategic autonomy, regional defence policy priorities, and Denmark’s readiness to escalate relations with Russia. Using the method of qualitative content analysis of Danish foreign policy strategies, Copenhagen’s current views on the alliance relations with the US are assessed, especially within the framework of Denmark’s turn towards «pragmatic idealism» in foreign policy, which Denmark announced in May 2023, and scrapping the EU defence opt-out following the outcome of the June 2022 referendum. The analysis has shown that maintaining the status of an «exemplary» or «model» ally leads both to contradictions and ignoring traditional mores within the Danish political system and the skewed priorities in financing military and non-military instruments of the Danish foreign policy. Moreover, even in Denmark’s military support of Ukraine, there is a gap between the symbolic value and practical effect of the measures taken by the Danish side. It is concluded that greater involvement in building the EU’s strategic autonomy will reduce Denmark’s interest in further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and its readiness for rhetorical and practical confrontation with Russia. At the same time, based on open sources, the U.S. is not exerting significant pressure on Copenhagen in connection with select gaps in compliance with the sanction regime. In case D. Trump is elected as the US president in the 2024 elections, Denmark, as one of the most pro-Atlantic EU member states, will probably face the acute task of linking the course of strategic autonomy with a broader vision of the future of transatlantic relations, as well as overcoming the dilemma between the concentration of defence capablities either in the Baltic Sea or in the North Atlantic and Arctic area including Greenland and the Faroe Islands.

Active feeding of downstream migrating juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) revealed in a large Barents Sea river using diet and stable isotope analysis.

The recent, rapid spreading of non-native pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha in the North Atlantic area has raised concerns about their possible negative impacts on native salmonid species. Potential interactions include competition for food resources during the short freshwater phase of juvenile O. gorbuscha, but little is known about their feeding behavior in the newly occupied North Atlantic rivers. Using stable isotope and stomach content analyses, patterns of freshwater feeding of non-native O. gorbuscha fry were studied in a large Fennoscandian river, the Teno, that discharges to the Barents Sea. Changes in stable isotope values (δ13 C, δ15 N, δ34 S) and stomach contents from the period of emergence (April to mid-May) to estuarine entry (late May/June) were examined and provided both temporally integrated and short-term indicators of freshwater feeding dependency. In addition, the occurrence of juvenile O. gorbuscha and changes in their length and weight during their emergence/migration period were investigated. Juvenile O. gorbuscha were at the spawning grounds from April through to mid-May with abundance peaking in mid-May. Fish moved to the estuary by late May and their abundance decreased toward June, and their body size increased concurrently. Stomach analyses indicated no feeding activity in April-early May in the spawning areas, but the stomach fullness indices increased markedly in fish sampled in the estuary in May and June. The most important prey items in stomachs were Chironomidae and Ephemeroptera larvae. Significant changes in all analysed stable isotopes were detected among sample periods, with a peak in mid-May and June showing significantly lower values than other sample periods. A change from the higher values reflective of parental marine feeding to the lower values reflective of freshwater feeding indicated active in-river feeding by juveniles during the study period. The documented active freshwater feeding of non-native juvenile O. gorbuscha suggests potential resource competition with native fluvial fishes, particularly salmonids.

Volcanic Imprints in Last-Millennium Land Summer Temperatures in the Circum–North Atlantic Area

Abstract Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter.

NATO’s position and role in the Indo-Pacific

ABSTRACT NATO can ill-afford to dismiss the security and military implications of China’s increased presence and its relationship with Russia throughout the Euro-Atlantic area and along its periphery. The Alliance’s strategic calculus must include China across all relevant sectors including: security, economics, technology, and elite capture. The strategic concept should acknowledge that the Alliance needs to improve its awareness of China – starting with the psychology of the leadership in Zhongnanhai. There is no uniform vision amongst Chinese leaders vis-à-vis world order but four theories can be used to foster awareness: (1) moral realism, (2) relationalism, (3) symbiotic theory, and (4) Tianxiaism. Understanding the theoretical underpinnings of Chinese worldviews can help leaders of the Alliance mitigate strategic risk throughout the North Atlantic Area. Another way for NATO to reduce risk is to engage other nations in the Indo-Pacific region. The strategic concept should present a realistic approach to partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region that raise awareness, understanding, and trust with the Alliance. The new Strategic Concept should outline how NATO must do work “under-the-hood” to ensure it has a complete picture of China’s influence throughout the Euro-Atlantic area, starting with the creation of a NATO-China Council.

Readings in Times of Crisis: New Interpretations of Stories about the Settlement of Iceland

Readings in Times of Crisis: New Interpretations of Stories about the Settlement of Iceland

NATO Facing China: Responses and Adaptations

This article explores and assesses NATO’s various options for dealing with Chinese power. Firstly, in terms of military approaches, we argue that NATO is unlikely to play a substantial role in US-led efforts to balance China in the Indo-Pacific region, or to designate China as a ‘threat’ in the North Atlantic area. Given that a clear-cut geographic division of labour between the United States and European partners would weaken the Alliance’s cohesion, NATO should instead focus on better integrating the ‘China factor’ into its military planning, in anticipation of the knock-on effects that a crisis in Asia could have on the European theatre. Secondly, in terms of the political approaches, although a formal expansion of NATO’s competencies is unlikely, stronger coordination with Indo-Pacific actors and with the European Commission could help overcome many of the Alliance’s geographic and functional limitations in dealing with China.

Wind kinetic energy climatology and effective resolution for the ERA5 reanalysis

ERA5 represents the state of the art for atmospheric reanalyses and is widely used in meteorological and climatological research. In this work, this dataset is evaluated using the wind kinetic energy spectrum. Seasonal climatologies are generated for 30° latitudinal bands in the Northern Hemisphere (periodic domain) and over the North Atlantic area (limited-area domain). The spectra are also assessed to determine the effective resolution of the reanalysis. The results present notable differences between the latitudinal domains, indicating that ERA5 is properly capturing the synoptic conditions. The seasonal variability is adequate too, being winter the most energetic, and summer the least energetic season. The limited area domain results introduce a larger energy density and range. Despite the good results for the synoptic scales, the reanalysis’ spectra are not able to properly reproduce the dissipation rates at mesoscale. This is a source of uncertainties which needs to be taken into account when using the dataset. Finally, a cyclone tropical transition is presented as a case study. The spectrum generated shows a clear difference in energy density at every wavelength, as expected for a highly-energetic status of the atmosphere.

Vatnajökull Mass Loss Under Solar Geoengineering Due to the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

AbstractThe objective of solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) is to lower global temperatures, but it may also have adverse side effects. Iceland is situated close to the overturning regions of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that warms the North Atlantic area. Hence, this may be one region where reduced irradiance by SAI may not be successful in reducing impacts from greenhouse gas warming. We examine this proposition by estimating how the Icelandic Vatnajökull ice cap (VIC) surface mass balance (SMB) and surface runoff changes in response to greenhouse gas and solar geoengineering scenarios over the period 1982–2089. We use the surface energy and mass balance model SEMIC driven by Earth System Model output under the GeoMIP G4, and CMIP RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios. Geoengineering significantly reduces VIC near‐surface air temperature by 0.4°C, downward longwave radiation by 2.4 Wm−2 and increases snowfall by 4.9 mm yr−1 relative to RCP4.5. During the SAI period 2020–2069, modeled annual mean SMB under G4, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are −0.34 ± 0.18 m yr−1, −0.56 ± 0.06 m yr−1 and −0.66 ± 0.04 m yr−1, respectively; surface runoff reduction under G4 is 6 ± 6% and 7 ± 6% (95% confidence interval uncertainties) compared with that under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which is far smaller than the 20 ± 2% and 32 ± 2% reductions for the Greenland ice sheet. The differences may be attributed to the reinvigoration of AMOC under G4 relative to RCP4.5 which brings more heat to Iceland than Greenland, leading to around half the cooling and longwave radiation reductions than for Greenland.

Stock Identification of Engraulis encrasicolus (Linnaeus, 1758) by Discriminant Function Analysis (DFA) of Morphometric Characters in The North of Atlantic and Mediterranean Moroccan Coasts

The European anchovy, Engraulis encrasicolus (Linnaeus, 1758) is a small pelagic fish found in the eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea. Anchovy (E. encrasicolus) are among the important finfishes harvested in Moroccan coasts. The stock structure of European anchovy in NW Africa is not truly known (FAO, 2013). To effectively manage the anchovy fisheries, it is important to understand the anchovy stock structure. Therefore, discriminant function analysis (DFA) based on morphometric characters was conducted on a total of 204 adult anchovy specimens, seasonally collected by commercial fishing vessels from the region of Mehdia in the North Atlantic area and from the region of M’diq in the Mediterranean coast during the year 2019. Body shape variation, which is often environmentally induced, may provide a good record population structuring. Our data were subjected to univariate statistics of variance (ANOVA) by using SPSS 20 software version. The morphometric characteristics show a separation of two stocks of Engraulis encrasicolus between the two localities. These findings will have major implications for anchovy fisheries management in Morocco.

Important role of North Atlantic air–sea coupling in the interannual predictability of summer precipitation over the eastern Tibetan Plateau

Tibetan Plateau (TP) summer precipitation, whose first leading mode presents a dipole oscillation between the northeastern and southeastern TP, plays important roles in the water cycle and atmospheric circulation. Using a weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) system to constrain the atmospheric component in a coupled model with a global atmospheric reanalysis product, this study demonstrates significant improvements in predicting the interannual variation of summer precipitation over the eastern TP, capturing the strong reversal mode between the northeastern and southeastern TP. These improvements are mainly attributed to the strong air–sea coupling over the North Atlantic (NA) and its remote impacts on the TP precipitation. This coupling allows observation-constrained atmosphere to significantly influence initial conditions (ICs) of sea surface temperature (SST) in the NA area and then obviously affect predictions of both NA SST and summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), which affects the downstream TP atmospheric circulation through the wave train of Eliassen-Palm (EP) stationary wave flux. This study highlights the importance of NA air–sea coupling in the interannual predictability of TP precipitation and suggests a new source of interannual predictability of TP precipitation.

Availability and usefulness of economic data on the effects of aquaculture: a North Atlantic comparative assessment

AbstractThis paper focuses on the availability of economic indicators and metrics to assess effects of marine aquaculture production in the North Atlantic area (the EU, Norway, Canada and USA), including also social and environmental effects. We consider how aquaculture planning and management is organised in the different countries and the usefulness of economic information to address different aquaculture‐related policies. We find that the most relevant economic data for aquaculture management should be at the local and regional levels rather than nationally. The availability of such economic data is mapped for national, regional and local level. The focus is on data that are publicly available from authorities or research institutions. The availability of data is generally fairly good for national and regional data on the direct economic effects of aquaculture. Data on how aquaculture‐related products or input markets are affected are however poorly available, as are economic data on external effects from aquaculture. Countries with a larger aquaculture sector tend to have better availability of aquaculture‐related economic data than those with a smaller sector. An index is developed and calculated to show more specifically where the countries have relatively good or poor data availability compared to their needs. While it will not always be cost‐effective or meaningful to collect economic data on the effects of aquaculture, our study indicates that several countries could benefit from expanding such data collection. It can make trade‐off decisions more consistent and easier to perform, and aquaculture policies and measures can be better tailored to specific contexts.

Food safety research of the agricultural research service, USDA

The Agricultural Research Service (ARS) is the in-house research institute of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). One of the key missions of ARS is to provide, through scientific research, the means to ensure that the food supply is safe and secure for consumers and that food and feed meet foreign and domestic regulatory requirements. Food safety research seeks ways to assess, control or eliminate potentially harmful food contaminants, including both introduced and naturally occurring pathogenic bacteria, viruses and parasites, toxins and non-biological-based chemical contaminants, mycotoxins and plant toxins. Food safety is a global issue; thus, the research program involves both national and international collaborations through formal and informal partnerships. To meet those responsibilities, ARS has engaged more than 180 Ph.D. research scientists in 25 laboratories to work on 62 research projects. Using the involvement in post-harvest food safety research of an Eastern Regional Research Center laboratory in the North Atlantic Area of ARS as an example, I will describe the processes and procedures for project development, research accountability, and technology transfer to stakeholders. In addition, specific examples on significant research accomplishments in pathogen detection involving collaboration with domestic and international entities will also be described.

Distribution and abundance of azaspiracid-producing dinophyte species and their toxins in North Atlantic and North Sea waters in summer 2018.

Representatives of the marine dinophyte family Amphidomataceae produce lipophilic phycotoxins called azaspiracids (AZA) which may cause azaspiracid shellfish poisoning (AZP) in humans after consumption of contaminated seafood. Three of the four known toxigenic species are observed frequently in the eastern North Atlantic. In 2018, a research survey was performed to strengthen knowledge on the distribution and abundance of toxigenic Amphidomataceae and their respective toxins in Irish coastal waters and in the North Sea. Species-specific quantification of the three toxigenic species (Azadinium spinosum, Azadinium poporum and Amphidoma languida) was based on recently developed qPCR assays, whose performance was successfully validated and tested with specificity tests and spike experiments. The multi-method approach of on-board live microscopy, qPCR assays and chemical AZA-analysis revealed the presence of Amphidomataceae in the North Atlantic including the three targeted toxigenic species and their respective AZA analogues (AZA-1, -2, -33, -38, -39). Azadinium spinosum was detected at the majority of Irish stations with a peak density of 8.3 x 104 cells L-1 and AZA (AZA-1, -2, -33) abundances up to 1,274 pg L-1. Amphidoma languida was also present at most Irish stations but appeared in highest abundance in a bloom at a central North Sea station with a density of 1.2 x 105 cells L-1 and an AZA (AZA-38, -39) abundances of 618 pg L-1. Azadinium poporum was detected sporadically at the Irish south coast and North Sea and was rather low in abundance during this study. The results confirmed the wide distribution and frequent occurrence of the target species in the North Atlantic area and revealed, for the first time, bloom abundances of toxigenic Amphidomataceae in this area. This emphasizes the importance of future studies and monitoring of amphidomatacean species and their respective AZA analogues in the North Atlantic.

The Late Saalian Cyprina clay of northeastern Germany and the following Weichselian sedimentation and deformation history – Review and new data

Glacially dislocated fossiliferous clay – hitherto called Cyprina clay– and associated Pleistocene sediments are exposed at the northeastern German coast. They were uplifted as glacial rafts from a position of about 30 m below the sea level and incorporated into glaciotectonic complexes of Dornbusch (Hiddensee), Arkona (Rügen) and Greifswalder Oie during the ice advances of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages of the fossil‐bearing clay and the overlying glacifluvial/lacustrine successions give insights into Late Saalian, Eemian and Early to Middle Weichselian development of the southern Baltic Sea area. The age data especially support the observation of changing environmental conditions prior to the Eemian warm period as suggested by the fossil record. A high‐arctic brackish fauna documented in a lower reddish‐grey clay is followed by a more boreal brackish‐marine to marine fauna in the overlying olive and/or greenish‐grey clay. This implies conditions of glacial meltwater running to the northwest during the deglaciation phase of the last Saalian Warthe ice advance and inflow of cold marine water from the North Atlantic area along the margin of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet into the Skagerrak and the Kattegat. Subsequently, water with higher salinity entered the mouths and channels of large rivers crossing the southern Baltic Sea area from SE to NW comparable with those of the Oder and Vistula rivers. Eemian Cyprina clay deposits with lusitanian faunal elements are not exposed in the study area but occur in Denmark and northwestern Germany. To distinguish the different facies types and age of the clay, we introduce the stratigraphical term Vitt Formation for the Late Saalian Cyprina clay in NE Germany, comprising Roundstonia, Portlandia and Arctica members – each with characteristic microfossil species.

Characterization of ranaviruses isolated from lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus L. in the North Atlantic area: proposal for a new ranavirus species (European North Atlantic Ranavirus).

The commercial production of lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus L. is expanding with the increased demand for their use as cleaner fish, to control sea-lice numbers, at marine Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. aquaculture sites throughout Northern Europe. A new ranavirus has been isolated from lumpfish at multiple locations in the North Atlantic area. First isolated in 2014 in the Faroe Islands, the virus has subsequently been found in lumpfish from Iceland in 2015 and from Scotland and Ireland in 2016. The Icelandic lumpfish ranavirus has been characterized by immunofluorescent antibody test, optimal growth conditions and transmission electron microscopy. Partial sequences of the major capsid protein gene from 12 isolates showed 99.79-100% nt identity between the lumpfish ranaviruses. Complete genome sequencing from three of the isolates and phylogenetic analysis based on the concatenated 26 iridovirus core genes suggest these lumpfish ranavirus isolates form a distinct clade with ranaviruses from cod Gadus morhua L. and turbot Scophthalmus maximus L. isolated in Denmark in 1979 and 1999, respectively. These data suggest that these viruses should be grouped together as a new ranavirus species, European North Atlantic Ranavirus, which encompasses ranaviruses isolated from marine fishes in European North Atlantic waters.

The Saksunarvatn Ash and the G10ka series tephra. Review and current state of knowledge

The Saksunarvatn Ash, first found in the Faroe Islands, is a tephra produced by the Grímsvötn volcanic system in Iceland. Since its discovery in the Faroe Islands, dark tephra with a similar stratigraphic position has been described at numerous locations around the North-Atlantic region; including 46 sites in Iceland (soil and lake sediments), 37 marine sediment cores from the North-Atlantic, 23 terrestrial locations in northern Europe (Faroe Islands, Scotland, Orkney, Shetland, Norway and Germany), and 4 sites from the Greenland Ice Sheet. The chemical composition of the tephra found around the North-Atlantic is, in most cases, within the published chemical range of the Saksunarvatn Ash originally found in the Faroe Islands, i.e. tholeiitic basalt with MgO and K 2 O wt% that places it in the more evolved part of the Grímsvötn chemical field. Published ages of the inferred Saksunarvatn Ash range significantly, dating from 10,625 ± 53 to 9586 ± 315 cal yr BP, although the widespread usage of the ice-core age of ~10,300 yr BP has given the tephra high chronological importance. Based on the reported sites, the tephra covers an area of about 2 million km 2 . However, in the last decade new studies have shown that the Grímsvötn volcanic system produced several widely distributed tephra layers of very similar chemical composition in the time period from 10,400–9900 yr BP. Hence, the Saksunarvatn Ash appears to be one of multiple early Holocene Grímsvötn tephra layers distributed around the North-Atlantic area. Where such tephras are identified, they therefore reflect a time interval rather than a precise marker as previously anticipated. Although still chemically indistinguishable, these Grímsvötn tephra layers represent a marker horizon around the North-Atlantic region spanning approximately 500 years, and are referred to as the G10ka series tephra. The exact number of eruptions that form the tephra marker horizon remains unknown, but up to seven have been proposed. • A basaltic tephra, the Saksunarvatn Ash, was described in the Faroe Islands in 1986 CE • The tephra was dated and became a widely-used marker layer in the North-Atlantic. • Recent findings show that the tephra reflects more than one eruption from Grímsvötn. • The new marker horizon is named the G10ka series tephra, including the Saksunarvatn Ash. • The age of the G10ka series tephra is 10.4 to 9.9 ka.

Türksoy, Türk Keneşi ve Kültürel Diplomasi: İşlevselciliğin Yeniden Tahayyülü

This paper’s aim is to read the process that crowned with the practice of cultural diplomacy thanks to TURKSOY and Turkic Council in Central Asia (especially in between Turkic republics and in general Turkic World) through Karl Deutch’s “transactionalist” approach. In his book, “Political Community and the North Atlantic Area” Deutsch explains the transactionalist theory as a study that would enable “possible ways in which men someday might abolish war.” So, the question is “How can men learn to act together to eliminate war/conflict as a social institution?”. Therefore, also, this article is an attempt to answer this question with cultural diplomacy and cultural diplomacy implementations through international organizations such as TURKSOY and Turkic Council in the Turkic World.

Growth rate, extinction and survival amongst late Cenozoic bivalves of the North Atlantic

ABSTRACT Late Cenozoic bivalve extinction in the North Atlantic area has been attributed to environmental deterioration. Within scallops and oysters – groups with a high growth rate – certain taxa which grew exceptionally fast became extinct, while others which grew slower survived. Those which grew exceptionally fast would have obtained protection from predators thereby, so their extinction may have been due to the detrimental effect of environmental change on growth rate and ability to avoid predation, rather than environmental change per se. We investigated some glycymeridid and carditid bivalves – groups with a low growth rate – to see whether extinct forms grew faster than extant forms. Extinct Glycymeris subovata grew at about the same rate as the slowest-growing living glycymeridid and much slower than late Cenozoic examples of extant G. americana, which grew at about the same rate as the fastest-growing living glycymeridid. Extinct G. obovata and extinct Cardites squamulosa ampla also grew slower than G. americana. These findings indicate that within bivalve groups with a low growth rate, extinction or survival of taxa through the late Cenozoic was not influenced by whether they were relatively fast or slow growers. By implication, environmental change acted directly to cause extinctions in these groups.