Normal Trade Research Articles

The Effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Green Technology Innovation: Evidence from China’s Enterprises

Promoting green technology innovation is essential for sustainable development and the transition to a low-carbon economy. Using data from listed manufacturing companies in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper takes the establishment of permanent normal trade relations with the United States after China’s accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the difference-in-differences method to study the impact of the decline in trade policy uncertainty on firms’ green technology innovation. The results show the following: (1) Reduced trade policy uncertainty significantly enhances green technology innovation in firms. (2) Further research finds that the decline in trade policy uncertainty mainly promotes the level of the green technology innovation of firms by alleviating financing constraints faced by firms and intensifying market competition. (3) A heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact is more pronounced in firms with lower capital intensity, higher growth, export firms, and firms exporting to the United States. This study offers micro-level empirical evidence from China on the economic outcomes of external trade policy changes from the perspective of firms’ green technology innovation and provides insights into how the government should respond to the risks of external trade frictions and improve firms’ sustainable development in the future.

Trade policy uncertainty and capacity utilisation rate: Firm‐level evidence from China's WTO accession

AbstractThis paper was one of the first to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) reduction on Chinese firm capacity utilisation rate from the perspective of trade policy variation. Based on a quasi‐natural experiment of the implementation of Permanent Normal Trade Relation (PNTR) after China's WTO accession, this paper adopts the difference‐in‐difference (DID) method to conduct empirical analysis, and finds that reduction in TPU significantly raises firm capacity utilisation rate. The mechanism tests show that export expansion is an important channel through which reduction in TPU raises firm capacity utilisation rate, especially for firms exporting to the United States; reduction in TPU also raises firm capacity utilisation rate through the improvement of production efficiency; in addition, reduction in TPU raises firm capacity utilisation rate along the downstream linkages, whereas the effect of the upstream linkages is insignificant. Finally, this paper takes a step further to conduct empirical analysis at industry level, the results show that reduction in TPU also significantly raises manufacturing aggregate capacity utilisation rate, and the improvement of resource reallocation efficiency (especially the exit of the firms with backward production capacity) plays an important role. Our study was helpful to understand the driving forces of the changes in Chinese manufacturing capacity utilisation rate in recent years, and it also provides new ideas for solving over‐capacity.

Globalization and stock price crash risk: evidence from the US granting permanent normal trade relations to China

Globalization and stock price crash risk: evidence from the US granting permanent normal trade relations to China

Торгівельні війни та їх вплив на національні економіки

The article examines the impact of trade wars on the US and Chinese economies and their foreign economic relations. The analysis showed that throughout the considered period of 2016-2023, from the outside it looks like the US-China "war" is a normal trade dispute. China has declared its intention to become the sole leader in the world market not only of goods, but also of technologies. However, the real cause of the conflict is hidden in the global confrontation between the two leading economies, the purpose of which is the actual division of the world into new spheres of influence. To determine the impact of countries' exports on their GDP, appropriate regression models were built. The model for the USA showed that during the period 2000- 2021, the volume of exports from the USA to China had a decisive influence on the GDP of the USA. A similar model for China shows that the most powerful influence on China's GDP comes from the volume of its exports to the United States. Therefore, during the current part of the considered period, the economies of both countries are not only in a state of protracted trade war, but also depend on each other

How does trade policy uncertainty affect firms’ pollution emissions? Theory and evidence from China

Abstract The literature investigates trade-environment relationship at the firm level, but does not focus on the environmental effect of trade policy uncertainty. In the context of de-globalization and Sino-US trade friction, trade policy uncertainty significantly increases. How does trade policy uncertainty affect firms’ pollution emissions? In this study, we incorporate energy, pollution, and trade policy uncertainty into Melitz’s (2003) framework and construct a theoretical model to reveal the relationship between trade policy uncertainty and pollution emissions. Then, we employ the event that the USA granted permanent normal trade relationship to China as a quasi natural experiment. We use difference-in-difference-in-difference model and the data of Chinese manufacturing firms for empirical analysis. Our results indicate that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty reduces emission intensity of exporting firms, but has no significant impact on emission levels. Given that these firms do not aggravate emission levels under the condition of expanding output scale, we conclude that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty can improve environmental performance. Mechanism analysis shows an interesting finding that the decrease in trade policy uncertainty reduces emission intensity mainly by improving energy efficiency rather than improving abatement technology and optimizing energy structure. In addition, pollution reductions mainly occur in pollution-intensive and capital-intensive industries as well as coastal regions. Altogether, this study contributes to the literature on trade-environment relationship and trade policy uncertainty.

Topological analysis, endogenous mechanisms, and supply risk propagation in the polycrystalline silicon trade dependency network

High-purity polycrystalline silicon, as a core raw material in the photovoltaic industry, has a trade structure whose robustness affects the supply security of the entire photovoltaic industry. Using social network analysis methods and dependence indicators, this study constructs a Polycrystalline Silicon Trade Dependency Network (PSTDN) from 1995 to 2019, and performs descriptive statistical analysis and trade community divisions on the network. The Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model (TERGM) is used to explore the factors influencing the formation of trade dependencies. Based on the cascading failure model, a Photovoltaic Multilayer Network Supply Risk Propagation Model (PMNSRPM) is constructed to study the risk propagation process of polycrystalline silicon supply interruption as a raw material in the photovoltaic industry. Finally, using the risk propagation range and dependency degree, the study measures the importance of nations comparatively. The results show that (1) the PSTDN exhibits reciprocity, geographical clustering, and weak network convergence; (2) the evolution of the PSTDN's community has gone through three stages: the rising expansion phase from 1995 to 2007, the crisis recession phase from 2008 to 2010, and the competitive contraction phase from 2010 to 2019; (3) the evolution of the PSTDN shows strong reciprocity effects, transitive effects, stabilization effects, and lag effects as endogenous mechanisms; (4) the average risk propagation range is continuously increasing along the supply chain, while there is no significant difference in the risk propagation rate along the supply chain. The risk propagation rate of different risk sources shows a long-tail effect, with the risk propagation rate of leading countries like the United States and China growing rapidly over time. The United States can infect China, but China cannot infect the United States and Western Europe; (5) The risk propagation range and the dependency degree present a positive correlation ranging between 0.5 and 0.7, which is not as highly positive as initially anticipated, and the correlation between them shows a downward trend. This study explores the statistical characteristics of the PSTDN, community evolution, and evolutionary factors, demonstrates the importance of polycrystalline silicon supply security for the production of the photovoltaic industry, quantifies the risk propagation capabilities of different countries, and identifies a group of countries that actually have a high risk propagation range but tend to be underestimated due to their low dependency degree in normal trade network. This can help enhance the early warning capabilities for photovoltaic supply security risks of various countries.

Assessment of global shipping risk caused by maritime piracy

Due to the frequent occurrence of piracy incidents, normal trade, and transportation activities have been hindered. This paper uses the Piracy and Armed Robbery dataset in the Global Integrated Shipping Information System to analyze the types and evolutionary characteristics of shipping risk caused by piracy and the piracy behavior patterns in different seas. This study found that there are three regions with high incidence of piracy in the world, and their gathering centers change dynamically over time. Piracy incidents can be divided into four categories based on the quantitative assessment of shipping risk caused by piracy. Shipping risk caused by piracy shows different evolution characteristics in different seas, affected by factors such as the evolution of national political situations and anti-piracy measures. Based on the qualitative assessment of the shipping risk caused by piracy, the piracy corpus reflects the diverse patterns of piracy in different seas. In the process of pirate attacks, the diversity is mainly manifested in violence and selectivity. In the consequences of pirate attacks, the targets that pirates pay attention to vary significantly in different seas. This research will help to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of shipping risk caused by piracy, and further contribute to the research on maritime transport safety.

Digitizing weather observations from World War II US naval ship logbooks

AbstractThe number and coverage of weather observations over the oceans were considerably reduced during World War II (WW2) due to disruptions to normal trade routes. The observations that do exist for this period are often unavailable to science as they are still only available as paper records or scanned images. We have rescued the detailed hourly weather observations contained in more than 28,000 logbook images of the US Navy Pacific Fleet stationed at Hawai'i during 1941–1945 to produce a dataset of more than 630,000 records. Each record contains the date and time, positional information and several meteorological measurements, totalling more than 3 million individual observations. The data rescue process consisted of a citizen science project asking volunteers to transcribe the observations from the available images, followed by additional quality control processes. This dataset not only contains hourly weather observations of air temperature, sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and wind direction, mainly in the Pacific Ocean but also includes some observations from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. The new observations are found to be of good quality by inter‐comparing independent measurements taken on ships travelling in convoy and by comparing with the 20th‐Century Reanalysis. This dataset provides invaluable instrumental weather observations at times and places during WW2, which fill gaps in existing reconstructions.

Will Trade Protection Trigger a Surge in Investment-Related CO2 Emissions? Evidence from Multi-Regional Input–Output Model

Current research has revealed that global trade promotes transnational investment and contributes to large amounts of CO2 emissions. Recently, trade protectionism has gradually emerged. This study aims to explore the effect of global trade protection on investment-related CO2 emissions. We construct an accounting framework for investment-related CO2 emissions under trade freedom and trade restriction based on the MRIO model for the first time, and investment-related CO2 emissions in 16 economies are determined in both trade freedom and trade restriction scenarios. The study uses normal trade and no-trade scenarios instead of free trade and restricted trade scenarios. Then, based on the comparison of the two scenarios, the effect of global trade protection on investment-related CO2 emissions is revealed from the three levels of country, section, and trade links. It is found that global trade protection would lead to an increase of up to 546.17 million tons in investment-related CO2 emissions under current trade structures. Transnational investment in the trade of end-stage intermediary goods contributed 81.6% of the total effect. In terms of countries, trade protection is quite disadvantageous to CO2 emission reduction in China and India, and their CO2 emissions would respectively increase by 105 million tons and 141.5 million tons compared to normal trade. The electricity, gas, and water supply sectors and the manufacturing sector are the main sectors for investment-related CO2 emissions. This study reveals the effect of trade freedom and trade protection on the environment of various countries from the viewpoint of investment-related CO2 emissions, which has important reference value for global CO2 emission reduction in the context of the evolving trade situation.

The U.S.-China Trade War and Policy Resilience

Abstract One can attribute the Trump administration’s pursuit of a trade war against the People’s Republic of China (prc) to a range of variables, including its re-election hopes, commitment to protectionism as an economic weapon, fears about Beijing’s pursuit of artificial intelligence, and broader strategic concerns about the global balance of power. This article argues that another explanation for President Donald J. Trump’s ability to change trade policy towards China was the structural weaknesses of the trade policy regime that emerged at the end of the 1990s when Congress adopted Permanent Normal Trade Relations as a designation for free trade in July 1998 and the prc joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001. Those weaknesses owed much to the ways in which the United States initially framed the new trade regime with the prc and the limited, only partially conclusive, character of the debate that took place at the time. Despite the growth and embedding of supply chains between China and the United States, these inbuilt weaknesses contributed to the progressive erosion of the trade policy regime during the years that followed. Within this context, few constituencies were ready to lobby for the prc after January 2017 and the Trump administration faced little opposition to its change of trade policy.

Double Taxation of Commission Fee of International Technology Trade and Corresponding Strategies

With the progress of the times, the increasing degree of economic globalization and the rapid development of the international trade industry, international technology trade has become one of the main forms of international trade. International technology trade is of great significance to the transformation and upgrading of a country's industry and the growth of the national economy, and some problems have arisen while countries pursue technology to trade for the purpose of achieving mutual benefit and win-win situations. The article first explains the problems related to international technology trade and commission fees and then analyzes the current taxation status of international technology trade commission fees, mainly studying some problems of the taxation systems of countries around the world and the repeated collection patterns of developed countries for technology trade commission fees. It also points out a series of problems caused by the double taxation of technology trade commission fees, such as: affecting the normal trade between technology suppliers and recipients, causing the high cost of technology transfer, and making the international technology trade market disorderly. Finally, the solution to the problem of double taxation is given, and at the same time, corresponding countermeasures are proposed for improving the development of international technology trade in China.

부동산 허위신고와 시장왜곡 간의 관계

In Korea, the housing market is undergoing a period of rapid price increases, and a policy to prevent false price reporting is implemented as a stabilization strategy. However, research on the relationship between false price reporting and market distortions in the real estate industry remains lacking. This study aims to empirically estimate whether false reporting of real estate price cause market distortions. Specifically, the prices of canceled trade suspected of false reporting and of normal trade are compared by using the data of Real Estate Trade Management System (RTMS) apartment sales in Seoul, Korea from Feb. 2020 to Dec. 2021. Double-adjustment in Propensity Score Matching is combined with Coarsened Exact Matching to obtain an accurate comparison. For the two groups of prices, pairs with similar attributes such as transaction time, location, apartment area, floor, and building age are matched. Results show no significant price difference between the two groups. False reporting of housing prices may have occurred in the specific period and region with high transaction cancelations, but its effects are negligible and cannot be concluded as a cause of market distortions.

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Inventory Management Behavior

This paper takes the Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) granted by the United States after China's accession to the WTO as a quasi-natural experiment, and systematically examines the impact of changes in trade policy uncertainty on the inventory management behavior of enterprises using the method of multiple differences. This paper finds that the decline of trade policy uncertainty has significantly reduced the quantity of enterprise inventory, especially those exporting to the United States. From the perspective of trade policy changes, this paper provides a new explanation for understanding the dynamic changes in the quantity of Chinese enterprise inventory in recent years, and also helps to systematically evaluate the economic effects of trade policy uncertainty changes.

Did US Politicians Expect the China Shock?

Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China’s normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting. (JEL D72, D78, D83, D84, F14, P33)

Russian Cooperation with BRICS Countries

For a long period foreign trade was one of the major priorities for Russian economic development. Economic contradictions between Russia and Western countries changed international economic order. As a result of the Western sanctions global financial and banking system was ruined, international trade faces serious problems. In current situation Russia has to reload its economic priorities. This article covers the major trends in Russian foreign trade during 2022-2023. In 2022 oil and natural gas export increased and foreign currency reserves were reestablished. But in 2023 Western economic sanctions influence negatively on economic relations, decreasing both import and export. There are some legal and transport barriers to normal trade with European countries and the United States. In the Section 2 the author considers the major problems and possibilities of BRICS countries cooperation. The potential of this group mutual trade is impressive. But the current state of BRICS economic cooperation is still primitive. One of the main impediments to the progress of BRICS is the economic differences among members. Trade barriers are also a significant obstacle to the progress of BRICS. While the member countries have pledged to promote free trade among themselves, there are still significant trade barriers that hinder their trade and economic growth. Infrastructure deficits, such as inadequate transportation networks and port facilities, can also create barriers to trade and investment. To overcome these impediments, the BRICS countries need to work together to promote cooperation and integration. This can be done through negotiations and agreements to reduce tariffs barriers, to improve transportation networks and port facilities.

Trade policy uncertainty and environmental performance of Chinese enterprises

Using the data of micro industrial enterprises and the quasi-natural experiment of the permanent normal trade relationship (PNTR) authorisation from the United States after China's accession to the World Trade Organization, this study investigates the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on enterprise environmental performance employing the difference-in-differences model. We found that the sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions of enterprises in an industry with a large reduction in TPU after China obtained the PNTR authorisation will be reduced more than those of enterprises in an industry with less TPU reduction. The decline in TPU helps reduce SO2 generation and strengthen enterprises’ pollutants removal, thereby improving enterprises’ front and terminal environment performance. Under strong environmental regulation by local governments, the decline in TPU is conducive to improving enterprises' environmental performance. The impact of TPU decline mainly exists in the enterprises of high pollution industries, non-state-owned and the eastern area.

Is a Special Purpose Vehicle a Way to Circumvent Western Economic Sanctions Imposed on Russia or Only Pitfalls Lie Ahead?

The ‘problem’ of economic sanctions that restricted trade has vexed the Russian community for the past several years and seemingly only tends to worsen. At the same time, the European Union (the EU) developed a Special Purpose Vehicle (the SPV) (known as Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (the INSTEX) for Iran to continue trade without accessing the United States financial system and avoid violating the United States of America (the US) sanctions. In this respect, one might argue that Russia, in general, might consider a similar option by creating an INSTEX like SPV to circumvent the imposed economic sanctions. At first glance, such SPV seems like a working mechanism to continue the trade in goods and services and to preserve trade flows in case Russia is fully disconnected from the SWIFT) or if ‘maximum’ sanctions are imposed against Russia. This article provides a general overview of how Russia deals with trading under the pressure of economic sanctions and how the hypothetical SPV may assist Russia in maintaining stable trade relations despite the sanctions. The article further discusses how the hypothetical SPV may resort to investment arbitration in order to protect its rights and interests and challenge the imposed sanctions and the risks it may face in this respect. The study reveals that creating such SPV to avoid anti-Russian sanctions might assist with humanitarian need, while the potential to restore normal trade flows is quite doubtful. Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), Economic Sanctions, Investment Arbitration, Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX), Counter-sanctions, Circumventing sanctions

The impact of trade policy uncertainty on labour demand elasticity: evidence from China

ABSTRACT Research on the effect of trade on labour demand elasticity is rich, but lacks studies on the effect of trade policy uncertainty. Using firm-level labour demand elasticity data from China, this paper supplements current research by presenting evidence for the impact of trade policy uncertainty on labour demand elasticity. Using the granting Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status by the US to China as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper constructs a difference-in-differences model. The empirical results show that a reduction in trade policy uncertainty following the grant of PNTR status significantly reduces labour demand elasticity in China. The decrease in trade policy uncertainty thereby improves employment stability. This paper reveals the importance of cultivating a stable international trade policy environment for stabilizing the domestic job market.

Analytical Study of the Continuous Increase in Tax Collection Due to GST Recovery in the Indian Economy

Abstract: The present research paper is based on in-depth research analysis of the continuous growth in tax collection due to GST collection in the Indian economy. GST was implemented on 01 July 2017 across the country under a single tax in the Indian economy. In April 2020 Till now the minimum GST collection was INR32172 crore whereas the highest ever GST collection was done. 141384 crores have happened in April 2021 (despite the second wave of the corona). GST compensation by the Center In the form of 23 states and 3 centers by taking loans on behalf of the states and union territories having legislative assemblies. Estimated compensation of INR 110000 crore in 20 installments between 23 October 2020 to 15 March 2021 in the governed territories. More than 100% of INR110208 crore was distributed. Apart from this, by 15 March 2021, all a loan of INR 106830 crore was raised by 28 states from the open market. Tax evasion in the GST regime Fake Input Tax Credit (ITC) has been a big problem since its inception. Even today not only normal Trade INR but also star exporting are evading tax by using fake ITC and defrauding the government. are putting In the last 02 financial year, the GST Council, in its many meetings, discussed many important issues like H. SN Code, Changes in the current structure of GST, Compulsory E-bill, a Cash deposit of GAT, GST Physical verification of registrations, action against CAs involved in fake invoices, GST refund, on receipt of bills Decisions were taken on reward, reduction in GST on electric vehicles, etc. Keywords: GST Collection, Indian economy, estimated compensation, Input Tax Credit, GST Council, GST refund.

Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Environment—Based on the Evidence of ASEAN Countries

Using the data onto foreign direct investment and the index of economic freedom, investment freedom, freedom of trade, monetary freedom and commercial freedom, this paper analyses the foreign direct investment in China and the ASEAN countries and five degrees of freedom. The results show that, after eliminate heteroscedastic, commercial freedom, monetary freedom and economic freedom significantly enhance a country's foreign direct investment, freedom to trade and to invest can inhibit foreign direct investment in a country. The 2009 global financial crisis also played a significant role in the impact on economic freedom of foreign direct investment, in which business freedom had a negative effect of a harsh international environment and a difficult domestic economy, while trade freedom was here It has played a positive role in the normal trade, but also eased the domestic economic environment and promoted the inflow of foreign direct investment.On this basis, the relevant policy suggestions of foreign direct investment and economic liberalization in China and ten ASEAN countries are drawn.