Nord Stream Research Articles

Conspiratorial Narratives and Ideological Constructs in the Russia–Ukraine Conflict: From the New World Order to the Golden Billion Theories

This article explores the pervasive influence of conspiracy theories, specifically the New World Order (NWO) and Golden Billion theories, within the context of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. These theories form key narrative frameworks in Russian state media and global conspiracy communities, shaping perceptions of geopolitical events. This study dissects four pivotal episodes within the Russia–Ukraine conflict to illustrate how conspiracy theories shape public perception and policy direction, further entrenching ideological divides. In the first episode of the 2022 full-scale invasion, narratives of the Golden Billion were utilised to justify the attack, presenting Russia as a bastion against the Western elite’s plans to dominate the global economy and resources. The second episode examines the attack on Mariupol in 2022, framed by Russian propaganda as a necessary act to thwart the supposed expansion of NATO and the EU, underpinned by the NWO agenda aiming to dilute Russian influence in Eastern Europe. The third episode analyses the Nord Stream pipeline sabotage in 2022, interpreted by some conspiracy theorists as an act by the NWO to destabilise Europe’s energy security, thus consolidating control over energy routes and resources. The fourth episode delves into the 2024 Moscow terrorist attacks, which were seen by some as either a false flag operation conducted by Western powers or as a legitimate repercussion of Western encroachment orchestrated to weaken Russia’s resolve and international standing. Each episode is contextualised within a broader conspiratorial framework, highlighting the dualistic nature of the NWO and Golden Billion theories that paint the conflict not merely as territorial disputes but as a clash between fundamentally opposing worldviews and global orders. This narrative analysis not only underscores the role of conspiracy theories in shaping geopolitical discourse but also demonstrates their utility in mobilising domestic support, framing international criticism, and justifying military actions. Our findings suggest that these conspiratorial narratives provide a resilient, albeit misleading, lens through which supporters of the Kremlin’s policies can rationalise the war, attributing complex sociopolitical dynamics to the malevolent machinations of a global elite. This study contributes to understanding how modern conflicts are interpreted through ancient conspiratorial lenses, impacting national and international policy and public opinion.

Registering from space intensive gas seeps on the sea surface due to damage to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines

Registering from space intensive gas seeps on the sea surface due to damage to Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines

Methane plume detection after the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline explosion in the Baltic Sea

On September 26th, 2022, the detonations at the gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and 2 resulted in some of the largest non-natural releases of methane known. The distribution of methane in the surrounding seawater and the possible effects were not apparent. To trace the pathways of methane we recorded CH4 concentrations and the isotopic signal (δ13C-CH4) in seawater, and air. A week post-explosion, we detected methane concentrations up to 4 orders of magnitude above the natural Baltic Sea background. The released fossil methane created a distinct plume with δ13C-CH4 ratios differing from natural background values. The strong water stratification preserved the distribution pattern initiated by the explosion, shown by the laterally strong concentration gradient within the plume. Our analysis encompasses three stages of the explosion's impact; the initial sea-air methane release, measurements taken during our research expedition one week later, and a third stage triggered by the shift from summer to winter conditions as an outlook on how winter mixing and microbial activity will influence the plume.

Sea blindness in grey zone preparations

ABSTRACT Although grey zone and hybrid threats, such as cyberattacks, information campaigns, and sabotage against critical infrastructure, are becoming increasingly common in the contemporary world, relatively little attention has been directed to similar threats in the maritime environment. The recent global pandemic, Russian aggression against Ukraine, the Nord Stream sabotage in 2022, the sabotage of the Finnish-Baltic pipeline in 2023 in the Baltic Sea, as well as drone attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf are but a few examples that illustrate the fragility of international maritime communications. The present article explores the topic of grey zone and hybrid threats within the maritime environment. Based on an analysis of recent security events, particularly hybrid threats in the maritime environment, the article proposes that it is essential to seek a broader role for naval forces in supporting national sovereignty and international law and order regarding the Open Seas. The article aims to conceptualize and explore the foundations of maritime grey zone threats and the new roles of naval forces operating within this new context, asking whether the UN, through the International Maritime Organization, NATO, and the European Union, suffer from “sea blindness” concerning how they are preparing for the new world order.

Advancing coordination in critical maritime infrastructure protection: Lessons from maritime piracy and cybersecurity

Critical maritime infrastructure protection has become a priority in ocean governance, particularly in Europe. Increased geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and the Nord Stream pipeline attacks in the Baltic Sea of September 2022 have been the main catalysts for this development. Calls for enhancing critical maritime infrastructure protection have multiplied, yet, what this implies in practice is less clear. This is partially a question of engineering and risk analysis. It also concerns how the multitude of actors involved can act concertedly. Dialogue, information sharing, and coordination are required, but there is a lack of discussion about which institutional set ups would lend themselves. In this article, we argue that the maritime counter-piracy operations off Somalia, as well as maritime cybersecurity governance hold valuable lessons to provide new answers for the institutional question in the critical maritime infrastructure protection agenda. We start by clarifying what is at stake in the CMIP agenda and why it is a major contemporary governance challenge. We then examine and assess the instruments found in maritime counter-piracy and maritime cybersecurity governance, including why and how they provide effective solutions for enhancing critical maritime infrastructure protection. Finally, we assess the ongoing institution building for CMIP in Europe. While we focus on the European experience, our discussion on designing institutions carries forward lessons for CMIP in other regions, too.

Report on Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2B observations of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline methane leak

Abstract. In late September 2022, explosions of the Nord Stream pipelines caused what could be the largest anthropogenic methane leak ever recorded. We report on Landsat 8 (L8) and Sentinel-2B (S-2B) observations of the sea-foam patch produced by the Nord Stream 2 (NS2) leak located close to Bornholm island, acquired on 29 and 30 September, respectively. Usually, reflected sunlight over sea is insufficient for these Earth imagers to observe any methane signal in nadir-viewing geometry. However, the NS2 foam patch observed here is bright enough to possibly allow the detection of methane above it. We apply the multi-band single-pass (MBSP) method to infer methane enhancement above the NS2 foam patch and then use the integrated mass enhancement (IME) method in a Monte Carlo ensemble approach to estimate methane leak rates and their uncertainties. This very specific NS2 observation case challenges some of MBSP and IME implicit assumptions and thus calls for customized calibrations: (1) for MBSP, we perform an empirical calibration of sea-foam albedo spectral dependence by using sea-foam observations in ship trails, and (2) for IME, we yield a tailored effective wind speed calibration that accounts for a partial plume observation, as methane enhancement may only be seen above the NS2 sea-foam patch. Our comprehensive uncertainty analysis yields large methane leak rate uncertainty ranges that include zero for single overpasses and, assuming they are independent, a best estimate of 502 ± 464 t h−1 for the combined averaged L8 and S-2B emission rate. Within all our Monte Carlo ensembles, positive methane leak rates have higher probabilities (80 %–88 %) than negative ones (12 %–20 %), thus indicating that L8 and S-2B likely captured a methane-related signal. Overall, we see our work both as a nuanced analysis of L8 and S-2B contributions to quantifying the NS2 leak emissions and as a methodological cautionary tale that builds insight into MBSP and IME sensitivities.

Adapting Nord Stream 2: How Russia adapts strategic narratives to English-speaking Polish and German audiences

Despite extensive scrutiny of how Russia has weaponized information, little work has been done on how it takes different audiences into account when designing its strategic narratives. Although scholars and practitioners agree on the importance of fitting narratives to audiences, the fact that Russia builds knowledge on audiences and that its practices are informed by a Soviet legacy of information warfare, little is known about the strategies Russia uses to adapt its strategic narratives to audiences. Through a comparative narrative study, the article investigates how Russian state media promote different narratives on Nord Stream 2 to German, Polish and English-speaking audiences. It shows how these are shaped by four adaptation strategies in which Russia amplifies, bridges, transforms and pushes back on the audiences’ pre-existing structures of meaning. This article contributes to the existing literature by deepening our knowledge of the relationship between the design of strategic narratives and their intended audience.

A bottom-up emission estimate for the 2022 Nord Stream gas leak: derivation, simulations, and evaluation

A bottom-up emission estimate for the 2022 Nord Stream gas leak: derivation, simulations, and evaluation

Institutional Foundations for the Formation of a Resource-Innovative Model for the Development of the Economy of Russia and Its Regions

Relevance. Global and tectonic shifts in the world economy that occurred in the XXI century in the world inevitably reflected on the state of national economies. The Russian economy, over a decade of economic sanctions against it, which are practically open-ended sabotage by the United States and a number of Western countries against the Russian critical infrastructure - the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on September 26, 2022, has found itself in a situation of de facto complete stoppage of export-import operations in the field of foreign trade with European countries.The purpose is to study the institutional foundations of the formation of a resource-innovative model of economic growth in the modern Russian economy. The objectives are interrelated and consist in the following: to analyze an array of economic scientific papers on the problem of research; to analyze the institutional foundations for the formation of a resource-innovative model of the development of the Russian economy; to determine the dynamics of budget financing of scientific research for the period from 2012 to 2022, etc. Methodology is a combination of general scientific research methods – analysis, synthesis of received information, interpretation of data. The information base of the study includes presidential decrees, strategic planning documents, national projects, scientific articles by Russian researchers on the problem under study. Results: the main problems of forming a resource-innovative model of economic growth in Russia at the present stage of economic development are identified; the shortcomings of the state policy in the field of financing R&D, innovative solutions and products that hinder the activities of innovative enterprises in the real sector of the economy are revealed.Conclusions. The Russian economy remains raw in its essential content. However, the introduction of digitalization technologies, artificial intelligence, new ideas and knowledge are gradually forming a resourceinnovative model for the development of the Russian economy.

The battle for differentiated integration in the EU energy policy

The main purpose of the article is to describe differentiated integration in the EU energy policy which concerns the exemption of the Nord Stream 2 and OPAL pipelines from European law, and more precisely from the so-called Third Energy Package. The attempt to derogate EU law in relation to these pipelines in Germany was of great economic and political importance for Central Europe as a whole. It also affected the modification of EU law and thus had systemic consequences for the entire EU. In this article, I will analyse the process aimed at derogation from the application of European law and its consequences. Furthermore, I will try to answer the question to what extent the public discussion hindered the possibilities of exemption from European law. Finally, I will turn to clarifying the reasons why exclusion from EU law in the case under review has failed. This seems to be of great importance when explaining other failed attempts to diversify integration in recent years as well; it may also help delineate what limitations there are for the very process in the future.

Offshore methane detection and quantification from space using sun glint measurements with the GHGSat constellation

Abstract. ​​​​​​​The ability to detect and quantify methane emissions from offshore platforms is of considerable interest in providing actionable feedback to industrial operators. While satellites offer a distinctive advantage for remote sensing of offshore platforms which may otherwise be difficult to reach, offshore measurements of methane from satellite instruments in the shortwave infrared are challenging due to the low levels of diffuse sunlight reflected from water surfaces. Here, we use the GHGSat satellite constellation in a sun glint configuration to detect and quantify methane emissions from offshore targets around the world. We present a variety of examples of offshore methane plumes, including the largest single emission at (84 000 ± 24 000) kg h−1 observed by GHGSat from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline leak in 2022 and the smallest offshore emission measured from space at (180 ± 130) kg h−1 in the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, we provide an overview of the constellation's offshore measurement capabilities. We measure a median column precision of 2.1 % of the background methane column density and estimate a detection limit, from analytical modelling and orbital simulations, that varies between 160 and 600 kg h−1 depending on the latitude and season.

Space-based Recording of Intensive Gas Seeps on the Sea Surface due to Damage to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipelines

Space-based Recording of Intensive Gas Seeps on the Sea Surface due to Damage to the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipelines

The 26 September 2022 Nord Stream Events: Insights from Nearby Seismic Events

Abstract On 26 September 2022, two seismic events were detected by regional seismic networks, coincident with media-reported leaks from the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the western Baltic Sea. In this study, we analyze seismic and infrasound signals from these two events and compare the seismic signals with those from other nearby seismic events such as underwater explosions and presumed earthquakes. Arrival times of seismic signals from the events on 26 September 2022 are used to show that the epicenters for both the events are in the vicinity of the Nord Stream pipelines. Signals from the two events display features that are characteristic of sources occurring near the seafloor. Observed P/S ratios from the Nord Stream events are also different from those observed for nearby presumed earthquakes. The observed seismic and infrasound signals are longer duration than would be expected from a single explosive source and show similarities with those observed from underwater volcano eruptions and gas pipeline explosions. The difference between seismic magnitudes estimated for the first Nord Stream pipeline event (MLP 2.32) and an event associated with the rupture of the Balticconnector pipeline on 7 October 2023 (MLP 1.09) is consistent with the estimated potential energy ratio of the gas in the pipelines. This suggests that the initial seismic signals from the first Nord Stream event may be dominated by energy generated by the venting of gas.

Resource and innovation policy of socio-economic development of modern Russia

Global and tectonic shifts in the world economy that have occurred in the 21st century in the world are inevitably reflected in the state of national economies. The Russian economy, over a decade of economic sanctions against it, practically of an open nature of sabotage by the United States and a number of Western countries against Russian critical infrastructure — the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline on September 26, 2022, found itself in a situation of de facto complete stop of export-import operations in the field of foreign trade activities with European countries. As a result of the start of Russia’s special military operation (SVO) in Ukraine, the logistics supply chains to the Russian Federation have radically transformed, and new supply logistics are being developed within the framework of the so-called «parallel» imports. The problems that arose with the supply of raw materials, materials and components affected the fall in the industrial production index in a number of Russian regions as of the end of 2022. However, the well-balanced and consistent economic policy of the Russian government has intensified the activities of industrial enterprises to produce products to achieve the goals of the Northern Military District, where positive production dynamics are already noted in 2023. The named factors that determine the state of the Russian economy in the near future determine the need to overcome the conservative natural resource model of economic development and transition to a resource-innovative strategy of economic growth. The purpose of the study is to study the institutional foundations for the formation of a resource-innovative model of economic growth in the modern Russian economy. The objectives of the study are interconnected and consist of the following: to analyze an array of economic scientific works on the research problem in order to demonstrate the evolution of views on the role of the natural resource factor in the development of national economies; analyze the institutional foundations for the formation of a resource-innovation model of development of the Russian economy, etc. The research methodology is a combination of general scientific research methods — analysis, synthesis of information obtained, interpretation of data. The information base for the research is presidential decrees, strategic planning documents, national projects, scientific articles by Russian researchers on the problem under study.

Technical and economic calculation of a high (medium) pressure dead-end gas network

The article is devoted to the analysis of situations that arose as a result of the explosion of the Nord Stream gas pipelines and Europe’s refusal of Russian gas. Russia is forced to redistribute gas flows. There was a need to increase gas supplies to China. Moreover, the corresponding gas pipelines have already been built. But most importantly, the prospect of providing gas to Russian consumers arose. A strange situation has arisen when Ukraine is 100% supplied with natural gas, and Russia supplies its consumers with 70%. At the same time, Russia has enormous reserves of natural gas. To supply consumers with economical and safe fuel, it is necessary to design the gas distribution system in such a way that, regardless of the mode of gas consumption, a stable pressure is maintained in front of gas appliances. This requirement can be met by using a pressure regulator for each consumer. The designed system is characterized by reduced capital costs, as there is a transition from a ring to a dead-end circuit. But most importantly, the laying of low-pressure gas pipelines is excluded from the gas distribution system. When hydraulically calculating a dead-end gas network of medium and high pressure, the differences between successive sections are redistributed in such a way that the total cost of capital costs, or material characteristics, is significantly reduced. Currently, polyethylene pipes are widely used in the construction of gas networks, which have significant advantages over steel ones, since they do not corrode.

Санкции Японии и ЕС против российского энергетического сектора в условиях кризиса 2022 г.

The aim of this article is to compare the measures taken by Japan and the European Union in response to the Ukrainian crisis escalation and subsequent world energy crisis. The article focuses on the sanctions policy of the two actors in the energy sphere, and the consequences from a socio-economic viewpoint. The volume of this study is limited to anti-Russian sanctions against basic fossil fuels – coal, crude oil, and natural gas. Under investigation are import restrictions, import diversification directions and EU–Japanese joint initiatives, taken to overcome the crisis under the US leadership. The study rests upon detailed statistical information from Japan’s and the EU’s, as well as international databases. Special attention is attributed to the problem of Russian gas import: Japan’s ongoing participation in the Sakhalin‑1 and 2 oil and gas projects, the routes of EU gas supplies alternative to Nord Stream‑1. The choice of actors is explained by the common situation which the EU and Japan found themselves in. Among the nations that introduced sanctions, they suffer the most, being short of natural resources and highly dependent on fossil fuel imports. Both imposed a wide range of sanctions in the energy sphere, following the hard line of the energy-independent United States. The paradox is that the EU, which is much more dependent on Russian fossil fuels, introduced much more severe sanctions than Japan. The author offers the following suggestion for this situation. First, Japan’s energy selfsufficiency ratio is lower than that of the EU, which is recognised by the G7 partners. Second, Japan, demonstrating full solidarity with Western countries, in contrast to the EU, still considers the Ukrainian crisis to be geographically distant, with relatively little effect on its domestic policy, except for the potential impact on the Taiwan Strait crisis escalation. Meanwhile, the energy crisis hits Japan directly, putting it into a situation where it must choose whether to follow the US’ and EU’s rigid approach, or to protect its own economic interests as much as possible. The study shows that, while the EU is putting democratic values protection ahead of the member states’ economic and social situation, Japan shows a more pragmatic approach in the energy sphere, trying to protect its industry and households from the devastating influence of the energy crisis, even if it goes against the G7 basic line and needs special approval. The degree of EU–Japan cooperation in solving common problems is seen as low. The absence of common proposals to overcome the crisis is explained by strategic dependence on the US, which is acting as the thought leader of the sanctions campaign under the G7 framework.

World’s largest natural gas leak from nord stream pipeline estimated at 478,000 tonnes

Methane is a potent heat trapping gas believed to account for 30% of the observed global warming to-date. At a capacity of 110 bcm/year, the Nord Stream (NS) pipeline corridor measuring 1,153mm in internal diameter and stretching 1,224km from Russia to Germany is the biggest in the world. The explosions that NS sustained in September, 2022, in the Baltic Sea, have unleashed the largest single methane gas source in recent memory. Over the course of 7days, our transient multiphase pipeline model has estimated that the gas leaks from 3 lines pumped 478,000 tonnes of methane into the atmosphere. A range of pipeline shut-in pressures as a function of leakage time deduced an envelope of gas volume that matched the timeline of observed outflows. Interestingly, the methane gas that escaped from the damaged threads amounted to the CO2 equivalent emitted by concrete sufficient to build about 27 Burj Khalifa towers.

The importance of Ukraine in the process of ensuring the energy security of Central European countries in the political thought of Polish political parties during the Russian-Ukrainian war. Selected issues

Ukraine has played an extremely important role in ensuring the energy security of Central European countries over the years, mainly due to its position as a transit state. Past energy crises (2006, 2009) have affected the perception of the country in Europe and led to Russian-German energy projects that reduce the level of regional security (e.g., Nord Stream 1, Nord Stream 2). In Poland, various political parties (Law and Justice, Civic Platform, the Left Party, Polish People’s Party) have referred differently to regional cooperation and the function Ukraine might offer in this type of process. In this context, the aim of the article was to analyse the political thought of selected Polish parliamentary parties regarding the importance of Ukraine in ensuring the energy security of Central European countries during Russia’s armed attack on Ukraine in 2022. The starting point of the analyses was the general thesis that political parties in Poland treated Ukraine as a key state in efforts to limit the negatively perceived energy policy of the Russian Federation in the region.

ВЛИЯНИЕ САНКЦИЙ НА ЕВРОПЕЙСКИЙ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИЙ РЫНОК И ЭКОНОМИКУ РОССИИ

This article reviews the views of prominent Russian economic figures on the imposed economic sanctions, as well as their foreign colleagues. An analysis is made of the benefits of sanctions against Russia for the main participants in the “Western coalition”. Using the example of the natural gas market, the inappropriateness of blocking energy supplies from Russia is shown. The financial losses from the unfinished Nord Stream 2 project are presented, and how instability in interstate relations between Russia and the EU affected the price of natural gas on the European energy market is considered. In conclusion, conclusions are presented and prospects for economic development for Russia under conditions of sanctions pressure are outlined.

Technical and Environmental Assessment of the Consequences of Accidents on Offshore Gas Pipelines in the Baltic Sea

The failure of the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea in September 2022 had significant technical and economic consequences not only for the European Union energy sector and the gas production and transmission industry of the Russian Federation, but also entailed a number of environmental consequences, the scale of which has yet to be explored. During the preliminary assessment of the consequences of the accident, the team of scientists from the Kant Baltic Federal University, the Atlantic branch of the VNIRO and the Shirshov Oceanology Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences calculated the composition of the gas mixture emitted and assessed its volume, studied potential environmental damage to the biogeocenoses of the Western and Southern Baltic, calculated the impact of the gases emitted on global temperature. The studies were based on data obtained from open sources and allow us to give a preliminary assessment of the environmental impact of the accident. The combination of analytical, evaluation and research methods used is basically a classic approach to accounting for the volume of gas emissions and their subsequent impact. Leakage volume was calculated by first determining the volume of gas that entered the natural environment after impact (before the emergency valves were closed), and then determining the second volume of gas (until pressure stabilization in the cut-off pipe sections and in the environment). Based on the information on the biota in the water area and the nature of the gas movement, an estimated impact on biological organisms in the zone of the Bronholm depression was determined. Based on the models of the influence of methane emissions on climatic parameters, the preliminary consequences of the emission were established. The assessment of the environmental impact on the water area was conducted and the main directions of further research determined. The potential ways to minimize the environmental consequences of the accident in the short and long term have been considered.