Non-tradable Sector Research Articles

Macroeconomic Policy, Wage Gap and Asset Prices: A Dynamic Dependent Economy Model

The role of financial sector in general and macroeconomic policy in particular is a crucial issue in the study of macroeconomic behaviour of developing countries. This article addresses this issue in terms of a dynamic dependent economy model consisting of traded and non-traded sectors. We use perfect foresight and focus on wage gap between skilled and unskilled labour along with unemployment and movement of asset prices. Based on the structure of the model we examine multitude of transmission mechanisms with implications of monetary policy and decrease in oil subsidy. The several cross effects induced by change in system of parameters have their profound bearing on exchange rate, Tobin’s q, wage gap, level of employment and the sectoral composition output. JEL Codes: E31, E63, F32, F41

The Dutch Disease of the Euro Area Peripheral Member States

ABSTRACT This study analyzes explanations identified in the literature for the subpar economic performance of the so-called peripheral member states of the Euro Area since the mid-1990s, comparing it to those of the core, catch-up, and financial hub member states. It argues that a key factor in the peripherals’ malaise was a financial Dutch disease-like mechanism, as the adoption of the euro led to large and sustained capital inflows. This resulted in a structural shift in the productive structure of peripheral economies away from technologically advanced manufactured goods, which are characterized by higher productivity growth. Consequently, peripheral member states specialized in non-tradable sectors, and in low-technology and labor-intensive tradable goods and services sectors, which largely explains the peripherals’ low economic growth, low productivity growth, and growing macroeconomic imbalances. Furthermore, this study argues that the economic underperformance of catch-up member states can also be explained by a financial Dutch disease mechanism.

Elite Incomes Around the World: Command over Tradables, Nontradables and Labour

AbstractThis paper shows that cross-country comparisons of elite incomes vary widely and systematically depending on the conception of real income used. It is well known that between-country income inequality is higher using market exchange rates than PPP exchange rates, due to a combination of traded sector bias and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, and we empirically confirm that this is the case for comparing top 1 percent incomes across countries. In contrast, we argue that measuring real incomes of elites using entitlements over labour (ELs), which take local wage costs as the numeraire, leads to the opposite effect: since the non-traded sector is relatively labour-intensive, incomes in the sense of ELs demonstrate non-traded sector bias relative to PPP incomes. They therefore provide a complement, or opposite bound, to the traded-sector bias of market exchange rates. Consistent with this argument, we find that between-country inequality among the world’s national elites is indeed lower using ELs than either PPP or market exchange rates. But elite incomes in ELs do not merely converge: elites in poorer countries leapfrog or overshoot their rich country counterparts, enjoying higher real incomes in terms of their command over domestic labour.

Sovereign risk and Dutch disease

I study how, in the presence of default risk, the Dutch disease amplifies an inefficiency in the sectoral allocation of capital. In a sovereign default model with commodities and production of traded and non-traded goods, default incentives increase when more capital is allocated to non-traded production. Households do not internalize this, giving rise to an inefficiently large non-traded sector. Commodity windfalls amplify this inefficiency through the classic Dutch disease mechanism. I characterize state-contingent subsidies that implement the efficient allocation and compare them to a simpler subsidy rule that ameliorates the externality. Evidence from spreads, natural-resource rents, and sectoral investment data support the main findings of the model.

Wage bargaining structure and political budget cycles: A policy game approach

Utilizing a panel dataset from OECD countries, this study unveils new evidence suggesting that the centralization of wage bargaining plays a significant role in mitigating Political Budget Cycles. To explain this empirical finding, the paper introduces a political economy model based on a policy game framework, encompassing three key agents: (i) an opportunistic government that decides on the level of budget deficits with the objective of enhancing its reelection prospects, (ii) workers/voters who decide on their sectoral affiliations, and (iii) unions that independently negotiate wages with firms. In this model, the opportunistic government has an incentive to run a budget deficit to favor the median voter, who is affiliated with non-tradable sectors. The mechanism emerges from the impact of debt-financed public spending on relative prices, and consequently, on relative wages between non-tradable and tradable sectors. Wage centralization mitigates the political incentive of opportunistic governments by attenuating the responsiveness of sectoral wages to sectoral prices, thereby pushing down budget deficits towards a socially more optimal level.

Which sectors go on when there is a sudden stop? An empirical analysis

This paper analyzes the dynamics of sectoral Real Gross Value Added (RGVA) around sudden stops in foreign capital inflows. We identify sudden stop episodes statistically from changes in gross capital inflows from the financial account. In the baseline specification, we estimate changes in the growth rate of sectoral RGVA during sudden stops and in the few quarters preceding and following them. We also look at whether real exchange rate movements and the depth of the RGVA decline on impact explain different sectoral dynamics afterwards. In an additional exercise, we analyze deviations from the sectors' long-run growth path. Our findings indicate that: (i) the construction sector experiences the largest drop in its growth rate during sudden stops; (ii) generally, tradable sectors, especially manufacturing, face larger damages during sudden stops than nontradable sectors, but they decelerate less in the medium run than some service sectors; (iii) the depth of the initial slowdown is related to a more favorable subsequent performance (a rebound effect), while we find only very weak evidence that real exchange rate depreciations facilitate adjustment. Overall, our results suggest a prolonged reallocation of economic activity away from service sectors, towards the production of goods. This is consistent with a traditional view of the role of tradable and nontradable sectors in a sudden stop episode.

Unlocking Urban Potential

This Survey highlights the role of urbanisation as a growth engine for Indonesia. With the country’s economy growing steadily, including by 5.11% in the first quarter of 2024, this Survey highlights the vital contribution of urban productivity to national income. Despite growth driven by non-tradable sectors and relatively strong consumption patterns due to Idul Fitri and general election events, urbanised areas face problems that hinder their productivity. Constraints in urbanisation—such as congestion, housing and pollution—decrease urban potential. Further, this Survey discusses institutional policies and alternative urban financing to improve urban productivity and foster sustainable urban development to help strengthen national economic growth.

ε‐ces preferences and trade

AbstractKimball preferences possess properties that make them a powerful tool for multi‐sector applied general equilibrium. While they are homothetic, they also can be made arbitrarily close to constant elasticity of substitution (ces) preferences, thereby sharing some of their properties ‘by continuity’. We develop a trade model which brings together traded and nontraded sectors, variable markups, and costly trade for this rich class of homothetic preferences. We characterize the consequences—for both sectors—of trade liberalization in traded sector. Numerical simulations for a calibrated version of the model reveal that the elasticity of utility with respect to trade costs is about 25%–27%, depending on whether traded and nontrade goods are complements or substitutes.

Urban Transit Infrastructure and Inequality

Abstract We propose a quantitative spatial model featuring heterogeneous worker groups and their travel to consume non-tradable goods and services. We consider the opening of the Downtown Line (DTL) in Singapore, which connected regions where high-income households have residential amenities to where non-traded sectors are productive. Leveraging transit farecard data, we show that high-income workers saw large welfare gains but low-income workers gained little. Everyone enjoyed improved access to consumption opportunities, but low-income jobs in non-tradables moved to less attractive workplaces. Abstracting from consumption travel understates the disparate impact across worker groups three-fold.

Nontraded Sector Growth Risks and Economic Sizes in International Asset Pricing

Output fluctuations in nontraded sectors are an important country-specific risk factor because nontraded outputs are only consumed domestically. In interest rate markets, countries with higher nontraded output growth risks are associated with stronger motives for precautionary savings and lower interest rates. In currency markets, strategies with higher exposures to nontraded output growth risks offer higher average excess returns. Economic sizes play an important role in exacerbating the pricing impact of nontraded output growth risks as it requires larger international trades to mitigate nontraded output risks of larger economies. However, because economic sizes are functions of outputs in equilibrium, output growth risks also explain this role of economic sizes in international asset pricing. This paper was accepted by Agostino Capponi, finance. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.03697 .

Fluctuations of the Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of the Iraqi Economy

This paper analyzes how a boom in the oil sector affects the relative prices of non-tradable goods compared to tradable goods, the real exchange rate, and the competitiveness of Iraq’s broader economy. As the oil sector booms, Iraq’s currency appreciates, which reduces the competitiveness of the country’s traditional export sectors. This thesis investigates the presence of Dutch Disease in Iraq, an area previously unexplored. It evaluates the impact of growing oil revenues on the non-oil sectors of the economy and provides empirical evidence showing a contraction in the tradable goods sector and an appreciation of the real exchange rate. The findings suggest that Iraq experienced symptoms of Dutch Disease, including real exchange rate appreciation, a shrinking tradable goods sector, and an expanding non-tradable goods sector. Ultimately, the appreciation of the real exchange rate is responsible for shifting Iraq‘s economy from manufacturing and agriculture (tradable sectors) to construction and services (non-tradable sectors).

Changes in the labor market with the introduction of scientific and technological innovations into the economy (foreign and domestic experience)

The article presents the impact of scientific and technological innovations on the industrial structure of the tradable sector of the economy. The analysis of economic data was carried out on the basis of the VAR model by Christopher Albert Sims for 15 developed countries with open economies and without a sanction’s regime, including the Russian Federation, for the period 1995…2013. Research has shown that the greater the continuous growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in the tradable sector of the economy compared to growth in the non-tradable sector, the more labor resources move from the tradable sector to the non-tradable sector of the economy, which has a stimulating effect on the share of labor income in both sectors of the economy. A model of the influence of scientific and technological innovations on the labor market in the tradable sector of the economy has been developed. The model allows for a state with an open economy and taking into account cross-country dispersion of redistribution effects to calculate factor technological changes. The model predicts the most accurate results for states where capital-intensive industries make a greater contribution to the increase in total factor productivity of the trade sector of the economy, i. e. for states in which capital increases in relation to labor efficiency.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Cash Transfers: Evidence from Brazil

This paper provides new evidence on the macroeconomic impact of cash transfers in developing countries. Using a Bartik-style identification strategy, the paper documents that Brazil’s Bolsa Familia transfer program leads to a large and persistent increase in relative state-level GDP, formal employment, and informal employment. A state receiving 1% of GDP in extra transfers grows 2.2% faster in the first year, with R$100,000 of extra transfers generating five formal-equivalent jobs, half of which are informal. Consistent with a demand-side mechanism, the effects are concentrated in non-tradable sectors. However, an open-economy New Keynesian model only partially captures the high multipliers estimated.

Credit Allocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Abstract We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable sector. Credit expansions to the non-tradable sector, in turn, systematically predict subsequent growth slowdowns and financial crises. In contrast, credit expansions to the tradable sector are associated with sustained output and productivity growth without a higher risk of a financial crisis. To understand these patterns, we show that firms in the non-tradable sector tend to be smaller, more reliant on loans secured by real estate, and more likely to default during crises. Our findings are consistent with models in which credit booms to the non-tradable sector are driven by easy financing conditions and amplified by collateral feedbacks, contributing to increased financial fragility and a boom–bust cycle.

Non-traded Gains From Trade - Selection in the Non-Traded Sector: Evidence from Brazil

Non-traded Gains From Trade - Selection in the Non-Traded Sector: Evidence from Brazil

Capital Account Liberalization, Structural Change, and Female Employment

Abstract This paper studies the effects of capital account liberalization on female employment and its implications for structural change in developing countries. Using a large industry-level panel of 88 low and low-middle-income countries, we provide evidence that episodes of financial liberalization lead to large declines in female employment in tradable sectors. These declines are driven primarily by structural reallocation effects between sectors, although we also find modest changes in the gender composition of employment within sectors, depending on the sample definition. Based on this evidence, we build a stylized model of a small open economy with tradable and nontradable sectors featuring occupational segregation across genders. We use this framework to study the impact of capital inflows and the female wage penalty on female employment in tradables and the real exchange rate. Our model also implies that when the female burden of non-market home production is sufficiently large, capital inflows will disproportionately hurt female employment relative to male employment.

The impact of the innovation city project on the local economy: Evidence from Korean Innovation City Project from 2012 to 2014

This study employs a difference-in-differences approach to investigate the impact of the Korean Innovation City Project (KICP) on employment and productivity. KICP is a place-based policy that involved relocating public institutions and providing economic incentives to attract businesses. Our findings show that newly established businesses experienced positive employment effects mainly in the nontradable sector, but temporary negative productivity effects in the tradable sector. We also identified significant positive spillover effects on productivity for incumbent businesses. Moreover, our results suggest that the effectiveness of place-based policies should consider sectoral heterogeneity, between-firm spillover, and lasting effects.

Organized Crime and Firms: Evidence from Antimafia Enforcement Actions

We exploit staggered municipality-level antimafia enforcement actions in Italy over the 1995–2015 period to study how the presence of organized crime affects firms. Following enforcement actions, we find increases in competition (i) among firms and (ii) for public procurement contracts. Firms that do not exit after a weakening of organized crime shrink in size, more so when operating in the nontradable sector. Our findings are consistent with organized crime acting as a barrier to entry and affecting local economic activity. This paper was accepted by David Sraer, finance. Supplemental Material: Data and the online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.00859 .

Financial crisis, labor market frictions, and economic volatility.

This article analyzes cross-country data encompassing 130 countries and regions from 2000 to 2019 to investigate the correlation between financial crises, labor market frictions, and economic volatility. The empirical findings demonstrate that financial crises have a milder impact on real gross domestic product (GDP) in developing countries with flexible labor markets. This trend also applies to non-eurozone developed countries, where labor market flexibility aids crisis mitigation. However, this pattern doesn't hold for eurozone countries. Further examination of developing nations reveals that those with heightened labor market flexibility tend to experience reduced adverse effects on non-tradable sectors, thereby mitigating the impact on real GDP.

What explains equity home bias? Theory and evidence at the sector level

This paper examines the well-known equity home bias puzzle in international finance by exploiting the cross-sector variation. Combining unique financial datasets, I introduce a novel sectoral home bias index that covers 27 industries in 43 countries, which enables empirical and theoretical analysis of the puzzle in unprecedented detail. I uncover two stylized facts (1) sectoral home bias is stronger for nontradable sectors and in countries with a higher degree of capital restrictions, and (2) investors tilt portfolios more towards domestic assets for the sectors in which their countries reveal a comparative advantage. Motivated by these findings, I build a multi-sector model that incorporates transaction costs, information asymmetry, and risk-hedging motives in investors’ portfolio choice. Moreover, I quantify the effects of these frictions on both sector- and country-level home bias in a calibrated DSGE model. This framework sheds light on the patterns and determinants of international financial investment.