Non-performing Loans Research Articles

Macro-financial linkage, endogenous risk premium and monetary policy: evidence from a semi-structural model estimated for Morocco

PurposeThis paper seeks to investigate the amplitude of macro-financial linkage for an emerging country like Morocco.Design/methodology/approachFor this purpose, it presents a semi-structural new-Keynesian model. In the blocks of the former, a risk premium is charged on the lending rate in addition to the policy rate. To identify the macro-financial linkage, the risk premium is considered endogenous. It is represented as a function of the borrower’s probability of default, which is, in turn, a function of the GDP gap. To identify this two-wave relationship, we estimate an ARDL model between 2009Q1 and 2020Q1. Therefore, we integrate the estimation results into the new-Keynesian semi-structural model.FindingsThe results reveal a significant impact of the financial condition on the path of the business cycle. In fact, demand shocks and nonperforming loan shocks (NPLs) are exacerbated by the presence of macro-financial linkage. Under this condition, the amplitude and persistence of the shocks are amplified and extended.Originality/valueThis paper extends the literature on the interconnection between the real and financial economies by considering the endogeneity of the credit risk premium and modeling its dynamics.

Impact of Select Variables on Tangible Book Value Multiple of U.S. Regional Banks

Aims: This study explores the relationship between regional banks' Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) multiple and metrics such as profitability, liquidity, capital adequacy, asset quality, leverage, and operational efficiency. Study Design: A longitudinal panel data analysis of 101 regional U.S. banks, covering the financial years from 2003 to 2023. It employs fixed effects, random effects, and pooled OLS regression models to determine the drivers of P/TBV multiple. The analysis controls for time-specific factors such as pre – and post – financial crisis periods, enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of valuation trends over different economic cycles. Results: All three models were statistically significant in identifying the determinants of P/TBV. However, the fixed effects model was deemed the most appropriate, as confirmed by the Hausman test (p < 0.001), which demonstrated its consistency over the random effects model. Additionally, the F-test (p < 0.001) indicated the relevance of the fixed effects model over the pooled OLS model by highlighting the significance of individual effects. The fixed effects model and the fixed effects model with robust standard errors revealed that return on equity and bank efficiency positively influenced P/TBV, while asset size, non-performing loans, leverage, and dividend yield had significant negative effect. The model also showed higher valuations for regional banks in the pre-2008 financial crisis period compared to the post-crisis era. Additionally, upon accounting for the impact of heteroscedasticity, the statistical significance of loan-to-deposit ratio variable noted in the fixed effects model turns out to be insignificant. Conclusion: Financial stability, profitability, capital, and asset quality are crucial in determining regional bank valuations. The insights from this study will help bank managers identify key focus areas to optimize valuation and pricing strategies, ensuring that banks can align internal financial health with broader market dynamics for sustainable growth. Additionally, the findings will benefit investors by providing a deeper understanding of the financial factors driving bank valuations, enabling more informed investment decisions. While this research does not directly address the impact of macroeconomic variables on regional banks' valuations, it highlights an area that merits further investigation in future research.

Evaluation of the fintech era on the performance of Moroccan banks: analysis through non-performing loans

Background This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the impact of the financial technologies (fintech) era on the performance in the banking sector, measured through non-performing loans (NPL) and their coverage by provisions for NPL. It is a question of knowing whether banking investment in fintech makes it possible to better evaluate the granting of credits, and therefore makes it possible to reduce overdue credits. Methods To this end, the method used consists of using a regression analysis and a Pearson correlation applied to the financial data of Moroccan banks observed during two distinct periods, namely 2007-2014, considered pre-fintech, and the period 2015-2022, considered as the fintech period. Results With the emergence of the fintech era, the Moroccan banking situation improved slightly compared to the pre-fintech period: bad debts did not increase despite the significant increase in net banking income and the size of banking assets during the fintech era. Conclusions The implementation of fintech has improved customer relationship management, credit risk analysis and loan monitoring services, which ultimately reduces non-performing loans and improves the coverage of non-performing loans by provisions. The main implication of the results allows us to deduce that the implementation of fintech makes it possible to have a positive impact on overdue credits, and they are also likely to serve as a lever for the inclusion of those excluded from banking services.

Banking Financial Performance as Influenced by Credit Risk, Liquidity and Bank Size In Conventional Banks Listed On The Indonesian Stock Exchange For The Period 2014 - 2023

This study aims to empirically examine the impact of credit risk, liquidity, and bank size on the financial performance of conventional banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2014-2023, with a particular focus on the COVID-19 pandemic period. The research variables used include the Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), and bank size, while Return on Assets (ROA) is used as a financial performance indicator. This study uses the purposive sampling method to select a sample from 138 banks listed on the IDX, resulting in 9 banks that meet the established criteria. Data analysis was conducted using panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Generalized Least Square (GLS) model to address the issues of autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity found in classical assumptions. The research results show that credit risk (NPL) has a significant negative impact on ROA, while bank size and liquidity (LDR) have a significant positive impact on ROA during the pandemic. These findings highlight the importance of managing credit and liquidity risks as well as optimizing bank size to improve financial performance amid the challenging economic conditions caused by the pandemic. This study also suggests that the financial performance of banks can be more stable if supported by appropriate risk management strategies and good operational efficiency. The limitations of this study include a sample restricted to conventional banks in Indonesia and the specific conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may affect the generalization of the results.

Loan growth drivers in state-owned banks: A fixed effects model approach

Loan growth is a critical driver for economic development, and comprehending the determinants affecting lending in state-owned banks is vital for enhancing financial sector stability and performance. This paper examines the factors that affect loan growth in state-owned banks in Bangladesh. We collected data over a 11-year period from 2012 to 2022. We applied ordinary least square method primarily followed by fixed effect estimation. To check the validity of the regression models of the study, we have considered several diagnostic tests. Our findings indicate that loan growth in state-owned banks is influenced by several industry-dependent variables i.e. size, liquidity, efficiency, non-performing loans, etc. The influence of bank size, income, liquidity, non-performing loan ratio, and cost-to-income ratio is the main emphasis of this study's investigation into the factors influencing bank lending. According to the statistics, there is a significant positive correlation between size and lending. Bank liquidity and lending show a strong negative correlation. The study also found higher lending is associated with higher non-performing loans significantly. The efficiency ratio shows a substantial negative impact on lending. To improve bank performance and stability, policymakers and bank management may benefit greatly from these results. Policymakers need to integrate various macroeconomic and qualitative elements into regulatory frameworks to bolster financial stability while facilitating sustainable loan expansion. Bank management can enhance efficiency by decreasing the cost-to-income ratio and strengthening credit risk management, while utilizing bank size for strategic expansions to increase lending capacity.

The Possibility of Financial Distress and Its Determinants: Evidence from the Banking Sector of Bangladesh

The banking sector of Bangladesh has shown poor performance for over a decade now. The non-performing loans increased over the years. This prompts the question of whether the banks are capable of maintaining financial stability and continue as a going concern. This is further fueled by the number of financial scandals which took place over the years, such as the Hallmark scandal, irregularities in Islami Bank Bangladesh Ltd., BASIC Bank Limited etc. that further highlights the signs of possible financial distress. These incidents call for an investigation of bank-specific determinants that might have a significant effect in leading a bank towards bankruptcy. This study has used the data of 30 listed commercial banks in Bangladesh, from the year 2014 to 2020. The bankruptcy risk is measured using the Altman Z-score, which has been extensively used as a suitable bankruptcy risk measurement tool. Statistical analysis has been conducted, using random-effects regression model and correlation, to test the relationship and impact of bank-specific factors. Capital adequacy ratio has shown significantly positive impact on the bankruptcy risk, while age has shown significantly negative impact on bankruptcy risk. Non-performing loan has also shown negative relationship with Z-score, which is contrary to the conventional belief.

Board Cultural Diversity and Nonperforming Loans: What Role Does Boardroom Gender Diversity Play?

ABSTRACTIn this paper, we examine the effect of board cultural diversity (BCD) on European banks nonperforming loans (NPLs) and whether boardroom gender diversity (BGD) moderates the BCD‐NPLs relationship. We used a sample of 75 banks in 20 European countries from 2011 to 2022. The System Generalized Method of Moment was performed as an econometric approach. We find that greater BCD increases NPLs and BGD moderates the BCD‐NPLs relationship. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that only large banks benefit from an interaction between BGD and BCD because it lowers the NPLs ratio. Our results are robust to alternative econometric methods.

Unlocking sustainability: exploring the nexus of green banking, digital transformation, and financial performance with foreign ownership moderation

The purpose of this research is to empirically test and analyze the impact of green banking, digital transformation, and asset quality on the financial performance of commercial banks with foreign ownership as a moderator. Additionally, it aims to test and analyze the financial performance of sustainable business practices for commercial banks. This study was conducted on commercial banks, specifically focusing on bank groups categorized by core capital levels 3 and 4, listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, covering the period from 2017 to 2022. This research employed a judgment sampling technique, encompassing a total of 47 conventional commercial banks. Panel data regression analysis, a data analysis technique, used three variables: the dependent variable, the independent variable, and the moderation variable. The research unveiled that green banking does not appear to have a significant positive impact on financial performance, whereas digital transformation shows a clear positive effect. Non-performing loans, a measure of asset quality, also affect financial performance. Additionally, foreign ownership strengthens the impact of green banking on the financial performance of commercial banks in Indonesia. However, foreign ownership does not enhance the effect of digital transformation. Finally, foreign ownership plays a moderating role in the relationship between asset quality and financial performance in these banks. Ultimately, financial performance has a significant positive influence on sustainable business, suggesting that stronger financial performance contributes to the long-term sustainability of a bank’s operations. The implications of these findings are, first and foremost, that financial institutions should prioritize incorporating sustainable and environmentally friendly practices into their operations to improve their overall financial performance and emphasize the critical role of digital transformation in enhancing financial performance. Consequently, financial institutions are required to allocate resources towards information technology infrastructure and cultivate digital capabilities to adapt to evolving customer demands, such as offering 24/7 banking services from any location. Secondly, financial institutions should not stay far away from digital disruption, but rather embrace it and adapt their strategies accordingly, which includes allocating an adequate budget for IT infrastructure investment and accessing digital services that meet the banking industry’s demands, resulting in effective communication of sustainable practices.

Impact of financial inclusion, financial stability, bank nonperforming loans, inflation, macroeconomic management quality and unemployment on economic growth in Nigeria

PurposeThe study investigates the impact of financial inclusion, financial stability, bank nonperforming loans, inflation, macroeconomic management quality and the unemployment rate on economic growth in Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachThe data are analyzed using the ordinary least squares regression, generalized linear model regression, robust least squares regression and the quantile regression methods. The sample period is from 2007 to 2022.FindingsFinancial inclusion, inflation rate and macroeconomic management quality are significant determinants of economic growth in Nigeria. Bank nonperforming loans, unemployment rate, international trade and climate change have an insignificant effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Also, financial inclusion, inflation rate, financial stability, macroeconomic management quality and the unemployment rate are significant determinants of economic growth in good economic years in Nigeria.Practical implicationsThe well-known catalysts of economic growth, such as financial inclusion and financial stability, are not positive catalysts of economic growth in Nigeria during good economic years. Therefore, it is recommended that policymakers should find the right level of financial inclusion, financial stability and unemployment that stimulate economic growth in Nigeria.Originality/valueThis study examines some determinants of economic growth in Nigeria which have not been examined in the existing literature.

Green banking disclosure and firm value: a research study at the commercial bank of Vietnam

ABSTRACT This study investigates the impact of green banking disclosure on the firm value of Vietnamese-listed commercial banks and examines the moderating role of non-performing loans (NPLs) from 2010 to 2023. Using panel data regression and content analysis, we employ the Circular 96/2020/TT-BTC disclosure index to measure green banking disclosure and Tobin’s Q to assess firm value. Our findings reveal that green banking disclosure generally reduces firm value. However, when accounting for NPLs, this negative relationship reverses, indicating a moderating effect. This research uniquely incorporates banks’ intrinsic value alongside Tobin’s Q to test the robustness of our results.

Monetary Policy Instruments and Financial Performance of the Banking Industry in Kenya

The Kenyan banking sector has faced significant volatility in recent years, notably marked by a decline in Return on Assets (ROA). This decrease reflects the sector's struggles with rising inflation, currency depreciation, and increased non-performing loans. Economic uncertainties and tighter global monetary policies have compounded these challenges, resulting in a more unstable financial environment. This volatility underscores the sector's sensitivity to both domestic and international economic conditions. In response, this research aimed to investigate the effect of monetary policy instruments on the financial performance of banks in Kenya. The study sought to analyze the effect of lending rates, money supply, open market operations (OMO), and the Central Bank Rate (CBR) on banks' financial performance. Anchored on four relevant theories—the Loanable Funds Theory, Quantity Theory of Money, Keynesian Economics, and Zero Bound Theory. The research utilized a causal design and a multiple linear regression model. Covering all 42 banks operating in Kenya from January 2009 to December 2023, the study employed secondary data. The correlation analysis reveals significant relationships between the monetary policy instruments and the financial performance of commercial banks in Kenya. Lending rates demonstrate a positive relationship with financial performance, suggesting that higher rates may benefit banks’ profitability. In contrast, both money supply and central bank rate show negative associations with financial performance, implying that increases in these variables might hinder profitability. Additionally, the analysis indicates a positive link between open market operations and bank performance, highlighting the varied effects of these monetary instruments on the banks' financial outcomes. Collectively, these insights underscore the interconnectedness of these monetary policy instruments and their impact on the financial performance of banks in Kenya. Given the complex interplay of these factors, policymakers should adopt a holistic view, regularly reviewing and adjusting policies to maintain economic stability while supporting a robust banking sector.

BPR RESILIENCE IN ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: COMPARISON OF BPR FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN INDONESIA BEFORE AND DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

The primary objective of this study was to examine the performance of BPRs in Indonesia before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The focus was on assessing financial performance variables, including Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Non-Performing Loan (NPL), Return on Asset (ROA), and Credit Disbursement. To achieve the study's objectives, a Descriptive Statistical Analysis was employed to provide a detailed overview of BPR performance during the two distinct periods. Additionally, a Difference Test, utilizing the Wilcoxon Test, was conducted to assess the significance of the differences observed between the pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. The results of the analysis revealed notable differences in the condition of BPRs before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. Significant changes were observed in financial performance variables such as NPL, ROA, and Credit Disbursement. However, LDR exhibited a tendency to be insignificant during this comparative analysis. It is crucial to acknowledge certain limitations in this study. The analysis focused primarily on financial performance variables, and other relevant factors may need consideration for a comprehensive understanding. Additionally, the study's findings are specific to the given time frame and may not account for potential longer-term effects. The identified differences in BPR performance provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. These findings can serve as a foundation for designing effective policies and strategies to address the economic impact of the pandemic. Moreover, the study offers essential insights for the banking industry, guiding them in adapting and building resilience in response to unexpected external changes.

Determinant of Earnings Management Pre and Post PSAK 109 in Indonesian Banks

This study aims to determine the differences in Earnings Management and the effect of Institutional Ownership, Managerial Ownership, Audit Committee Competencies, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), and Nonperforming Loan (NPL) on Earnings Management proxied by Discretionary Loan Loss Provision (DLLP) pre and post-PSAK 109 implementation in Indonesian bank listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). This study uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression and Wilcoxon signed-rank test to test the hypothesis. The study used the period pre and post implementation of PSAK 109. We traced each bank's financial report listed on the IDX from 2017 to 2020 to anticipate early implementation. Using purposive sampling, we obtained 40 pre-PSAK 109 and 40 post-PSAK 109 bank samples. This study found no difference in earnings management pre and post-PSAK 109. Institutional Ownership, Managerial Ownership, and Audit Committee Competencies do not affect Earnings Management pre and post-PSAK 109. NPL is positively related to Earnings Management pre and post-PSAK 109, and CAR is positively related to Earnings Management pre-PSAK 109 but has no effect on Earnings Management post-PSAK 109. This study provides additional information for standard setters and OJK regarding monitoring earnings management practices in banking pre and post-PSAK 109.

Financial Performance of Banking in Indonesia: A Comparison Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic

This research aims to examine the financial performance of the banking sector in Indonesia both before and during the pandemic. In the course of this investigation, financial performance was evaluated using several factors namely Loan to deposit ratio (LDR), non-performing loan (NPL), return on assets (ROA), as well as operating expenses and operating income (BOPO). Furthermore, the data used comprised information on the banking financial conditions before (2018-2019) and during the pandemic-affected periods (2020-2021). Purposive sampling was used for sample selection and the analytical methodology adopted comprised the Wilcoxon signed rank test and paired samples t-test analysis. It is also crucial to establish that the present research utilized statistical computations conducted via the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) application, with a significance level of 5%. The obtained results showed that no significant difference was identified between LDR and BOPO both before and during the pandemic. However, a substantial difference was identified between NPL and ROA over the two examined periods.

Analysis of the Implementation of Risk Management to Minimize the Risk of Bad Credit at the Nias Rural Development Savings and Loans Cooperative (KSP3) Gunungsitoli Branch

This study aims to determine the application of risk management carried out by the Nias Rural Development Savings and Loan Cooperative (KSP3) Gunungsitoli Branch in minimizing the risk of bad loans. In this study, the type of research used is a descriptive type with a qualitative approach. Data collection techniques are used through observation, interviews and documentation. To obtain information, the researcher conducted direct interviews with 6 informants, namely branch heads, 2 employees and 3 members of the Nias Rural Development Savings and Loan Cooperative (KSP3) Gunungsitoli Branch. The data analysis techniques used in qualitative research include transcripts of interview results, data reduction, data presentation and conclusion drawn. The results of the study show that the implementation of risk management carried out by the Nias Rural Development Savings and Loan Cooperative (KSP3) Gunungsitoli Branch is carried out through a series of stages, namely risk identification, risk measurement, risk monitoring and risk control. The implementation of risk management to minimize the risk of bad loans has been effectively implemented by KSP3 Nias Gunungsitoli Branch as evidenced by the NPL (Non-Performing Loan) rate from 2020-2022 which is still below 5%.

An in-depth analysis of financial metrics and their interrelations in shaping the performance of commercial banks in Cambodia

This study aims to systematically identify and analyze key financial metrics that influence the performance of commercial banks in Cambodia. Utilizing 2023 data from the National Bank of Cambodia across 59 banks, the research adopts an explanatory framework based on cross- sectional data analysis. The findings reveal that Loan Growth (LG) exhibits no statistical significance in relation to Return on Equity (ROE), suggesting that increases in lending do not necessarily enhance bank profitability in the Cambodian context. Conversely, Non-Performing Loans (NPL) demonstrate a marginally significant positive relationship with ROE, indicating that effective management of these loans can still yield profitability. Additionally, the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) shows a significant negative impact on ROE, suggesting that higher liquidity risks associated with elevated LDR levels may hinder profitability. The study further confirms that Market Share (MS), Loan Loss Provision (LLP), Cost to Income Ratio (CIR), Effective Tax Rate (ETR), and Net Interest Margin (NIM) significantly influence ROE. These results underscore the importance of effective risk management, operational efficiency, and strategic financial planning in enhancing bank profitability. Recommendations for Cambodian commercial banks include improving risk management practices, focusing on loan portfolio quality, optimizing LDR, implementing cost efficiency measures, and enhancing tax management strategies.

DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN PENYALURAN KREDIT MODAL KERJA DI BANK KBMI 4 PADA TAHUN 2011-2021

The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of Non-Performing Loan, third-party funds, Net Interest Margin, and Gross Domestic Product per capita on the growth of working capital loan banks in KBMI category 4 period 2011-2021. This research employs secondary data acquired from banks in the Buku Empat Category between 2011 and 2021. To analyze the data, a panel data regression model was utilized, with eviews13 serving as the research instrument. The findings of this study show that net interest margin and third-party funds have a positive and statistically significant impact on Working Capital Loan growth. Additionally, this study demonstrates that the mandatory reserve requirement (GWM) significantly and negatively impacts Working Capital Loan growth. In contrast, neither the unemployment rate nor the GDP per capita have a substantial impact on KMK growth.

Analysis of factors influencing banks' profitability using panel data models

The banking sector, as one of the fundamental pillars of the financial industry, being in a healthy condition is of paramount importance not only from an individual perspective but also for firms and governmental administrations. Banks support sustainable economic conditions in all economies by facilitating investments and channeling idle funds into the economy. In this study, the analysis of micro and macro-level variables affecting the return on assets and return on equity of 24 banks operating in the Turkish banking sector from 2016 to 2023 has been investigated using panel data models. According to the results obtained from the analysis, it was found that there is a positive and significant relationship between return on assets and capital adequacy ratio, a negative and significant relationship with non-performing loans, a positive and significant relationship with BIST100 (Borsa Istanbul 100 Index), and a negative and significant relationship with bond yields. Additionally, a negative and significant relationship was found between return on equity and non-performing loans, and a positive and significant relationship with the BIST100 index.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Banking Industry and Its Customers

, including customer demand, digital transformation, risk management methods, and overall financial performance. Focusing on shifts in client demand for loans and financial products, the rise of digital banking, and banks' reactions to increased financial risks, this study examines how the pandemic affected conventional banking operations and customer interactions. The goals of the research are to look at how banks changed their services throughout the pandemic, how they dealt with risk, and how well they did financially. The research relies on secondary data analysis that scours academic journals, government documents, business reports, and bank records. Findings highlight a sharp drop in loan demand in the early phases of the epidemic, followed by a dramatic increase in demand for mortgage refinancing and corporate loans supported by the government. Online and mobile banking saw a meteoric rise in popularity as more and more clients made the switch. Lending restrictions and provisions for non-performing loans were tightened by banks in response to financial instability, which had a detrimental impact on their profitability. Better digital banking infrastructure, more robust risk management frameworks, and more adaptable financial products that can react to crises more effectively are some of the long-term consequences that the study emphasizes for the banking sector. At its end, the paper suggests ways financial institutions might be better ready for future disruptions and urges additional investigation into how fintech will play a role and how regulations will alter in the banking industry after a pandemic.

Static and Dynamic Modeling of Non-Performing Loan Determinants in the Eurozone

The issue of non-performing loans (NPLs) in a bank’s portfolio is important for a bank’s stability and sustainability. Their increased presence indicates a potential worsening of the economy and a lower quality of the bank’s assets. We estimated determinants of non-performing loans in the Eurozone for quarterly data 2015–2020. The results confirmed spatial spillover effects within Eurozone countries, which means that when a shock happens in one country in the Eurozone, it will also affect the other economies of the Eurozone area. Based on the Hausman test, a fixed-effects model was chosen as appropriate and showed that bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants significantly affect NPLs in these economies. In relation to previous studies that dealt with this issue, a co-integration analysis was introduced. A significant impact of return on assets, return on equity, and the loan-to-deposit ratio, as well as the gross domestic product, inflation, and exchange rate on NPLs in the short run and long run, was confirmed using a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimator. Bank management should customize credit policy based on both internal and external conditions to improve their performance, focusing on enhancing profitability and maintaining a lower loan-to-deposit ratio to reduce NPLs. The research suggests that a higher gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate is associated with fewer NPLs, while inflation uncertainty and a volatile exchange rate can increase NPLs, highlighting the importance of adjusting strategies to the macroeconomic landscape.