Nonmetropolitan Growth Research Articles

The Demographic Constraints on Future Population Growth in Regional Australia

ABSTRACTConcern about rapid population growth in Australia's large cities and slower growth in many non-metropolitan areas has stimulated a range of government policies attempting to lift non-metropolitan growth rates. However, there is relatively little research on which to base these policies. It would be helpful to understand more about the consequences of current demographic trends continuing and the effects of alternative migration patterns. This paper presents sub-national population projections for Australia over the horizon 2011–2041, basing the projections on more socially meaningful Remoteness Areas instead of common statistical geographies. Three sets of projections were generated: a Current Direction scenario in which recent demographic trends are maintained, a Regional Immigration scenario in which more immigrants settle in regional and remote areas, and a Metro Exodus scenario in which there is increased internal migration from metropolitan to non-metropolitan areas. The future of Australia's population geography is shown to be one of spatially varying growth and population ageing, and continued metropolitanisation. In regional areas rapid population ageing will lower natural increase rates and thus reduce overall growth, resulting in a falling share of the national population. Policy measures attempting to increase the share of growth in regional areas will struggle against natural demographic forces operating in the opposite direction.

Non-metropolitan Growth Potential of Western Cape Municipalities

This paper provides a brief overview of the relevant post-2000 South African policy for regional (provincial) spatial development within the context of the quantitative findings of a study conducted on the growth potential of non- metropolitan settlements in the Western Cape. The findings are presented at munic- ipal level. Five indices (social needs, economic, physical environment, infrastructure and institutional) and 69 indicators were used to determine development potential and social needs for the 24 local municipalities and three district management areas in the province. The potential indicators for each index were subjected to a factor analysis to select appropriate core indicators for inclusion in the composite indices. Based on their overall performance in the various indices, the municipalities were classified into three categories—high, medium and low. The study results prioritise areas according to their developmental potential and social needs at municipal level.

Factors Associated with the Development of Nonmetropolitan Growth Nodes in Producer Services Industries, 1980–1990*

Abstract Over the 1980–1990 period, employment in producer services industries in the nonmetropolitan United States increased substantially. This growth resulted in the development of nonmetropolitan growth nodes in producer services industries. A growth node refers to a nonmetropolitan area that contains a greater than average concentration of employment in a particular industry sector relative to other nonmetropolitan areas. Moreover, this industry concentration not only increases over time, but also represents an important source of employment growth within the area. With nonmetropolitan counties as the spatial unit of analysis, 317 growth nodes in producer services industries are identified for the 1980–1990 period. Access to workers with clerical and administrative support skills, access to highly educated workers, higher earnings per employed worker, access to recreational amenities, and proximity to metropolitan areas were associated with the development of nonmetropolitan growth nodes in producer services industries during this period.

Metropolitan and Non-metropolitan Employment Trends in the US: Recent Evidence and Implications

Employment trends are analysed for the period 1969-94 across metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas (disaggregated spatially) by region and by sector. The decentralisation story is persistent but complex. The 1980s turns out to be an aberration (and even in that period, suburban growth was stronger than central-city growth), because since 1988 the vigorous non-metropolitan growth of the 1970s has resumed, and now has a clear rural emphasis.

The ‘Clean Break’ Revisited: Is US Population Again Deconcentrating?

"The Hoover index, calculated across counties and larger spatial units, is again declining--signalling a renewal of population deconcentration in the United States. After increasing for several decades, the index declined in the 1970s when nonmetropolitan population growth surged past metropolitan-area growth, but the index rose in the 1980s as metropolitan population growth recovered and surpassed nonmetropolitan growth. We update these trends, introducing careful controls for changes in metropolitan-area boundaries, and we incorporate a ¿functional urban region' approach. Although the nonmetropolitan population growth rate is still below the metropolitan rate, we conclude that in the 1990s some features of the ¿turnaround' of the 1970s have returned."

Population Change and Migration in Britain since 1981: Evidence for Continuing Deconcentration

Recent trends in spatial distribution and internal migration in Britain are reviewed using small-area statistics from the 1981 and 1991 censuses. "The results indicate that the differentials in the population growth rate between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan Britain narrowed somewhat between the 1970s and the 1980s, but the negative relationship between urban status and population change remained very clear. Moreover, contrary to the experience of the U.S.A. and a number of European countries, in the mid-1980s Britain saw a resurgence of nonmetropolitan growth which had widespread impact across the country."

The Australian Manufacturing Shift: The Experience of Country Localities

In Western Europe and the US the experience of nonmetropolitan growth in manufacturing employment plays a vital role in accounting for industrial change, metropolitan declines and regional development. In Australia, the experience of country localities has made minimal or insignificant contributions to these debates. This paper points out that there has, however, been significant widespread growth in manufacturing employment in country localities and that this growth has been characterised by a dynamism in industry sectors and capital restructuring that is closely tied yet contrasting to the traditional industrial areas. The experiences of NSW is examined as a case study. The implications of these findings are to question the appropriateness of US and European models (and Australian conceptions) of regional change.

Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972–1988

In seeking to explain recent trends in population distribution, there has been increased interest in residential preferences. This study is a comparison of preferences based on 1972 and 1988 national surveys, years that bracket a period of considerable change in distribution patterns. Over time there has been a small shift in preference toward cities less than 500,000 in size, primarily by those already living there. Rural settings, especially near cities, continue to be very attractive. At both times studied, more than half of those preferring a smaller or more remote place would retain this preference even if it meant 10% less income. Nevertheless, the proportion preferring to live more than 30 miles from a large city was unchanged and approximately equal to the proportion already living there at both times, indicating that a discrepancy between where people live and where they want to live is not an important basis for the upturn in nonmetropolitan growth away from large cities in the 1970s or the downturn in the 1980s.

Rural and small town America

This study conducted for the National Committee for Research on the 1980 Census is one in a series presenting analyses of data from the 1980 U.S. census. This volume provides a detailed picture of rural America and includes chapters on population distribution; small-town growth and population dispersal; age and sex composition; race and ethnicity; household growth and structure; fertility; labor force and employment; industrial structure and change; the farm population; income and poverty; characteristics of cities towns and rural areas; and the persisting importance of residence. The authors find that size of place is a critical demographic factor affecting population composition... the distribution of poverty... and employment opportunities....Pointing out that rural life is no longer synonymous with farming they explore variations among nonmetropolitan populations. They also trace the impact of major national trends--the nonmetropolitan growth spurt of the 1970s and its current reversal for example or changing fertility rates--on rural life and on the relationship between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan communities. (EXCERPT)

Local Employment Initiatives in Rural Towns

The quest for regional development, like death and taxes, seems always to be with us, though its immediate stimulus has shifted periodically according to the circumstances of the day. Australians have long subscribed to grand visions of making the deserts bloom and of harvesting potential wealth through the exploitation of seemingly limitless resources. The notion that denser inland settlement and the more effective occupation of peripheral regions might help repel the hungry hoards of Asia has also gained prominence at times of external threat. More recently, non-metropolitan growth has been seen as a way of reducing a perceived range of economic, social and environmental problems in some of Australia's largest cities, notably Sydney and Melbourne, while improving the quality of life of people living in rural areas through better access to services and employment. Superimposed on these issues is the growing realization that rural communities themselves can be divided into the prosperous (mainly regional centres and places adjacent to them receiving favourable spread effects) and those, often small places, with static or declining populations.

Theoretical Contributions to the Understanding of U.S. Nonmetropolitan Economic Change

The economic and population turnaround in nonmetropolitan America during the 1960s and 1970s, followed by a reversal of this turnaround in the early 1980s, has been the focus of considerable research by economists, geographers, planners, sociologists, and others. Theories and models for understanding regional economic change and the location of economic activity seldom focus on nonmetropolitan areas. This essay reviews some of these theories and models, discusses how they have been used to help analyze and predict nonmetropolitan economic change, and interprets their relevance to understanding U.S. nonmetropolitan growth and decline.

The effects of nonmetropolitan population growth on resource management

Abstract Studies of nonmetropolitan growth have neglected the effect of changes in the nature of new residents and land‐holding size on individual resource management. This study of management of a resource‐at‐risk shows that deleterious resource management does not follow automatically in the wake of population growth. There is no difference in likelihood of new and long‐standing residents to manage resources, although they probably manage for different reasons, and new residents are more likely to practice protective management. No differences in management on parcels of different sizes were found. Discriminant analysis in which variation due to length of residence is taken into account, however, shows protective management to be predicted by property size and “connectedness”; to the land rather than by demographic variables. Future studies of resource management should consider economic and non‐economic management goals, “connectedness”; to the land and resource, and non‐professional (indigenous) manag...

Heterogeneity and the implied dynamics of regional growth rates: Was the nonmetropolitan turnaround an artifact of aggregation?

The spatial units of analysis employed in urban and regional research display considerable internal heterogeneity in terms of the social, demographic, and economic variables used to describe them. One implication of this has been overlooked in the literature, namely, that aggregate rates may have an implicit dynamic of change. Differential internal rates modify the composition of the aggregate, changing the relative importance of subareas in determining the aggregate rate. To demonstrate this, methods for decomposing the change in growth rates due to heterogeneity are developed and applied to nonmetropolitan growth rates between 1950 and 1980. Internal heterogeneity was found to be an important, and sometimes even a dominant, component of change. Furthermore, the analysis sheds considerable light on the reasons for the changes in aggregate rates that marked the nonmetropolitan turnaround.

Long-distance commuting and population change in Georgia, 1960-80.

The authors investigate counter-urbanization and population change in Georgia between 1960 and 1980 by examining commuting patterns. "The immediate objective is to construct the entire set of commuting fields of both large metropolitan areas to metropolitan and nonmetropolitan employment centers. We then proceed to the relationship between commuting from nonmetropolitan areas to all levels of Georgia's urban hierarchy and population change in these nonmetropolitan settings. By matching population growth and decline areas with explicit employment ties...the nature of the population changes is much better understood." Data from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 censuses for 581 Census County Divisions (CCDs) in Georgia are analyzed. It is concluded that "most nonmetropolitan growth taking place in Georgia is associated with intensification of metropolitan commuting fields along with growth of nonmetropolitan centers and their influence along the very periphery of metropolitan spheres of employment influence. However, a significant share of Georgia's nonmetropolitan population revitalization is explained by growth independent of direct metropolitan influence. It would appear then that nonmetropolitan growth centers are an important part of the basis for population decentralization in Georgia. Metropolitan spill-over alone cannot account for counterurbanization on this portion of the American economic landscape."

The Changing Rural Village in America: Demographic and Economic Trends Since 1950.

An attempt is made to provide an assessment of rural village communities in the United States and to demonstrate on a national scale the process of change in village demographic and economic characteristics between 1950 and 1980 a period of major adjustment in response to urban-centered innovations and pressures. A village is defined as an incorporated place with a population of less than 2500. Data are taken from U.S. censuses for 1950 through 1980 a 1981 survey of mayors in 100 villages and other sources. The authors first examine village population change as a dependent variable in an effort to understand more about how the new population trends have been experienced by villages and whether this is accompanied by a change in factors associated with their growth and decline. Then [they] look at population characteristics of villages as related to their position in the settlement structure so that size and growth patterns are treated as independent variables. Next [they] consider trends in village economic activities...and the interrelations of trade population and other economic changes for villages differentiated by size and location. Particular attention is given to the recent turnaround in nonmetropolitan growth. (EXCERPT)

Restructuring and the Nonmetropolitan Turnaround: The California Evidence

Conceptions of nonmetropolitan growth have rarely benefited from current debates in social theory. An analytical interpretation of the literature on the "turnaround" is offered from a structuralist perspective. In this model of industrial restructuring, the routinization of the labor process via capital intensification is seen to engender the dispersal of firms to outlying areas through the internalization of linkages. Empirical evidence from California confirms this notion, as population growth is tied to labor markets in which capital-intensive production forms are extensive. Economic base analysis indicates the rapid growth of the service sector is relatively less significant in such areas.

The nonmetropolitan population turnaround.

From 1970-1980, US nonmetropolitan areas grew more rapidly than previously, achieving overall a faster growth rate than metropolitan areas, with more migrants going from metropolitan to nonmetropolian areas than in the opposite direction. This paper reviews the literature that has emerged in seeking to understand this new trend, which was contrary to expectations and became known as the nonmetropolitan turnaround. Work includes macroanalyses of changes in nonmetropolitan settlement structure, changes in the distribution of employment, migration streams and differentials, as well as research on residential preferences and migration decison making. This is a new trend in terms of population distribution processes, although evidence that it reflects a greater importance of noneconomic factors in migration is mixed. Nonmetropolitan growth slowed in the latter part of the 1970s and overall the turnaround reversed in the early 1980s, but a return to a generally concentrated settlement pattern appears unlikely. The amount of research accomplished over a short span of time as a consequence of the turnaround is noteworthy, and the findings have contributed to increased understanding of US population change.

COMMUTING DISTANCE AND GENDER AMONG NONMETROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY EMPLOYEES∗

The applicability of metropolitan-derived explanations of gender differences in worktrip lengths is examined based on a sample of 435 university employees in the nonmetropolitan town of Blacksburg, VA. Women's worktrips are found to be longer than men's in contrast to metropolitan findings. This pattern results from the interaction of spatial structures of housing and employment with women's lower incomes, gender segregation of employment, and the tendency for married women to find jobs after their residence is established. Upward trends in female labor force participation rates and in nonmetropolitan growth require continued analysis of their joint impact on women's spatial behavior.

Declining city productivity and the growth of rural regions: A test of alternative explanations

Prior to the 1970s the U.S. witnessed a net flow of migrants from its nonmetropolitan to its metropolitan region. Since then, however, a dramatic reversal of this long-standing tendency for people to concentrate in metropolitan places has been observed-nonmetropolitan places have gained migrants largely as the result of increased outmigration from metropolitan areas. An open question has been to what extent the employment profile between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan places parallels that of population. This paper introduces a data series compiled from County Business Patterns that is used to analyze the employment trends for the first time. The analysis reveals that not only is total employment growing fastest in nonmetropolitan counties, but it also appears that the turnaround in employment growth preceded the reversal in the rate of population increase. Manufacturing, which had faster nonmetropolitan growth rates even during the 195Os, appears to have led in the development of nonmetropolitan counties. This shift of manufacturing has attracted other sectors as well as people to nonmetropolitan places. Part of the recent growth of nonmetropolitan counties represented nothing more than a continuation of suburbanization or spillover of people and jobs which permitted one more outward bound into adjacent nonmetropolitan counties. But there is more to nonmetropolitan development than simply metropolitan spillover. Nonmetropolitan counties far removed from metropolitan ones are also growing faster than metropolitan counties. It is shown that this rural renaissance is part of a general deconcentration

Nonmetropolitan growth in the late 1970s: The end of the turnaround?

The discovery of the turnaround in growth patterns between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the early 1970s generated a large body of both theoretical and descriptive literature. Early research documented that the switch from negative to positive net migration into nonmetro areas was more than just a continuation of urban sprawl and that real growth was occurring in remote rural areas. Explanations for the trend included both the economic (deconcentration of manufacturing, expanding energy extraction, growth in the government and service sectors) and the non-economic (preference for rural living, retirement migration, and the modernization of nonmetro areas, including