Non-oil Export Performance Research Articles

Understanding the Nexus between Seaport Efficiency and Nigeria’s Non-Oil Export Performance: A Case study of Lagos Seaports 2000 -2020

This research focused on assessing the relationship between seaport efficiency and Nigeria’s non-oil export. The western ports of Lagos were selected as the Decision-Making Units (DMU) for this study covering the period of 2000 to 2020. Two stage estimation process was employed. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was deployed in the first stage to generate the efficiency index required to test the relationships. In the second stage, the efficiency index so generated was introduced as one of the independent variables in a multiple regression model, using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The finding shows that seaport efficiency has a positive and significant relationship with non-oil export in the long run and a positive but insignificant relationship with non-oil export in the short run. The study concluded that seaport efficiency has a direct and positive impact on Nigeria’s non-oil export. This study therefore recommended the effective implementation of reforms of critical infrastructure particularly the transportation sector for improved efficiency by the federal and state governments; the deepening and close monitoring of the concessionaires by the Nigerian Ports Authority, to meet their investment and operational expectation in the concession agreement.

Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis

The diversification of the economy including its exports is at the core of Saudi Vision 2030. The vision targets to raise non-oil export from 16% to 50% of non-oil GDP by 2030. Achieving this, in addition to other goals, necessitates a better understanding of the non-oil export relationship with its determinants. However, we are not aware of a study that estimates the impacts of the determinants on Saudi non-oil exports covering the recent years of reforms and low oil prices and that conducts simulations for future. The purpose of this study is to develop an econometric modeling framework for Saudi non-oil export that can enhance informing the policymaking process through empirical estimations and simulations. For estimations, we applied cointegration and equilibrium correction methodology to the annual data for the period 1983–2018. Results show that Middle Eastern and North African countries’ GDP, as a measure of foreign income, and Saudi Arabia’s non-oil GDP, as a measure of production capacity, have statistically significant positive effects on Saudi non-oil exports in the long run. The real effective exchange rate (REER), as a measure of competitiveness, also exerts a positive effect in the long run if it depreciates and vice versa. Furthermore, our findings support the Export-led growth concept, which articulates that export can be an engine of economic growth and does not support the Dutch disease concept, which highlights the consequences of the resource sector for the non-resource tradable sector for Saudi Arabia. Macroeconometric model-based simulations conducted up to 2030 reveal out that the Saudi non-oil export is more responsive to the changes in REER than any other determinants. The simulation results also show that non-oil manufacturing makes a three times larger contribution to the future expansion of non-oil exports than agriculture. Moreover, the simulations discover that finance, insurance, and other business services, as well as transport and communication play an important role in improving the Saudi non-oil export performance in the coming decade. The key policy recommendation is that measures should be implemented in a coordinated and balanced way to achieve non-oil exports and other targets of the Vision.

Evaluation of Non-oil Export Stimulation Facility and Non-oil Export Performance: Nigerian Paradigm

Evaluation of Non-oil Export Stimulation Facility and Non-oil Export Performance: Nigerian Paradigm

Impacts of Entrepreneurial Competence and Government Policy on SMEs’ Non-Oil Export Performance in the Southwest Nigeria

Impacts of Entrepreneurial Competence and Government Policy on SMEs’ Non-Oil Export Performance in the Southwest Nigeria

Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Non-Oil Export Performance in Nigeria

Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Non-Oil Export Performance in Nigeria

Oil price and USD-Naira exchange rate crash: Can economic diversification save the Naira?

Naira lost half of its foreign exchange value in less than two years following 2014 oil price crash, and has not recovered despite numerous government's attempts. This study thus evaluated the potential of economic diversification (proxied by non-oil export performance) in saving the Naira by analysing a nexus between oil price, exchange rate and nonoil export. Estimation of a rearranged current account equation within Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, using monthly data from January 2008 to December 2015 yielded the following results. There is a direct relationship between oil price and exchange rate, and this affirms that sharp decline in the former induced the latter's deterioration. Increase in non-oil exports led to appreciation of USD-Naira exchange rate both in the short run and the long run. Import, on the other hand, induced depreciation of the exchange rate in the long run. Diversification, by increasing export revenue and reducing import bills, therefore has a great potential to improve the value of Naira.

Exchange rate volatility and non-oil exports in Nigeria: An empirical investigation

The adoption of a flexible exchange rate system since 1986 in Nigeria has made the country witnessed varying rate of the naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar. This paper examines exchange rate volatility with ARCH model and its various extensions (GARCH, TGARCH, and EGARCH) using quarterly exchange rate series from 1986-Q1 to 2014-Q4.The impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports was also examined using Error Correction Model (ECM) with two different measures of volatility. The results obtained confirm the existence of exchange rate volatility and also found a significant negative effect on non-oil export performance in Nigeria. Therefore, the Nigerian government should ensure an appropriate policy mix that not only ensures a stable and realistic exchange rate but also conducive atmosphere for production and exportation.

Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-oil Exports in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation

The adoption of a flexible exchange rate system since 1986 in Nigeria has made the country witnessed varying rate of the naira vis-a-vis the U.S dollar. This paper examines exchange rate volatility with ARCH model and its various extensions (GARCH, TGARCH, and EGARCH) using quarterly exchange rate series from 1986q1 to 2014q4. The impact of exchange rate volatility on non-oil exports was also examined using Error Correction Model (ECM) with two different measures of volatility. The results obtained confirm the existence of exchange rate volatility and also found a significant negative effect on non-oil export performance in Nigeria. Therefore, the Nigerian government should ensure an appropriate policy mix that not only ensures a stable and realistic exchange rate but also conducive atmosphere for production and exportation.

Growth in Nigeria’s Non-Oil Export Finance and Non-Oil Export Performance: A Correlational Analysis

The growth in non-oil merchandise the world over is stimulated by individual governments’ monetary and fiscal policies. Finances are provided export-producing firms to improve and modernize capacity to make Nigeria’s non-oil export commodities competitive in the export market. Data obtained on Nigeria’s export finances provided non-oil export commodity producers and their export volumes were analysed to determine the growth in those variables on consecutive year’s basis. Resultant values were further analysed using the kendall’s tau-b correlation coefficient to determine if changes in non-oil export financing affect changes in non-oil export volume commensurately. Correlation value of 0.025 show positive insignificant relationship between changes in both variables necessitating an inquiry into non-oil export financings by the monetary authorities to ensure that purported non-oil financings are actually provided for this purpose with an inquiry into the operations of the receiving non-oil export producing firms; and the reappraisal of the operational, fiscal and operational government policies inhibiting production for export.

The Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on the Non-Oil Export: The Case of Azerbaijan

The paper investigates the impact of the real exchange rate on non-oil exports in Azerbaijan by applying Vector Error Correction Model. The estimation results suggest that real exchange rate of manat has negative impact on non-oil export performance while non-oil GDP affects positively in the long- and short-run. Error correction term indicates that short-run fluctuation can be adjusted into long-run equilibrium relationship. Based on findings of the study can be concluded that appreciating real exchange rate is one of major factors that impede non-oil export growth. Since promotion of non-oil export is one of the urgent issues of the strategic economic policy of Azerbaijan Republic then findings of the study may be useful for policymakers.

EMPLOYMENT EFFECT OF INDONESIA’S NON-OIL EXPORT

Indonesian government needs both domestic and foreign investments to accelerate its economic development. The investments enable promoting export and creating higher employment level. This research uses a path analysis method to analyze time series data of the period 1990 to 2009. It finds that both domestic and foreign direct investments significantly and positively influence Indonesia’s non-oil exports. In addition, it suggests that non-oil export performance can eventually lead to an increase in employment level in Indonesia. The policy implication of these results is that Indonesian government should encourage investment to promote export and absorb more labor. Keywords: Foreign direct investment, domestic investment, non-oil export, labor absorption JEL classification numbers: F42, F43

Africa's Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness: Do Institutions Matter?

This paper examines the structural competitiveness of oil-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa relative to other major oil-exporting developing countries, and investigates reasons for systematic differences in the non-oil export performance across these economies. The analysis reveals that oil-rich Africa lags behind other oil-exporters in terms of diversification, global market share and the overall investment climate. The poor performance of their nonoil sector can be largely attributed to weak infrastructure and institutional quality. The results also show that institutional quality is a significant determinant of the extent to which oil abundance affects the competitiveness of the non-oil sector; thereby explaining the divergent experiences of oil-rich economies across the world. This implies that oil wealth does not necessarily weaken the non-oil tradable sector; countries may mitigate the impact of Dutch disease and benefit from oil booms if revenues are used prudently to reduce oil dependence.

Africa's Oil Abundance and External Competitiveness: Do Institutions Matter?

This paper examines the structural competitiveness of oil-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa relative to other major oil-exporting developing countries, and investigates reasons for systematic differences in the non-oil export performance across these economies. The analysis reveals that oil-rich Africa lags behind other oil-exporters in terms of diversification, global market share and the overall investment climate. The poor performance of their nonoil sector can be largely attributed to weak infrastructure and institutional quality. The results also show that institutional quality is a significant determinant of the extent to which oil abundance affects the competitiveness of the non-oil sector; thereby explaining the divergent experiences of oil-rich economies across the world. This implies that oil wealth does not necessarily weaken the non-oil tradable sector; countries may mitigate the impact of Dutch disease and benefit from oil booms if revenues are used prudently to reduce oil dependence.

Indonesia's Non-Oil Export Performance During the Economic Crisis: Distinguishing Price Trends from Quantity Trends

Despite an enormous currency depreciation, the growth rate of Indonesia's non-oil exports, measured in dollars, did not accelerate during the first two years of the Asian crisis. In fact, during the second year of the crisis non-oil export value dropped sharply. This paper demonstrates that the main reason for the decline in the dollar value of non-oil exports was a collapse of export prices. Non-oil export dollar prices fell 26% between the second quarter of 1997 and the second quarter of 1999. Measured at constant prices, non-oil exports grew 24% and manufactured exports 31% during this period. Non-oil import prices fell by roughly the same amount as non-oil export prices during the crisis, with little change in the non-oil terms of trade. The decline in the price of traded goods significantly reduced the magnitude of the real exchange rate depreciation experienced by Indonesia.

Empirical investigation of one OPEC country's successful non-oil export performance

This study examines Indonesian non-oil export success between 1975 and 1994, with a focus on the role of exchange rate management and trade policy in export performance across sectors. To examine the link between export quantity and changes in policy, I estimate structural export supply functions that are derived from utility and profit maximization behavior. The results indicate that non-oil exporters respond positively to improved price incentives, including exchange rate devaluation, with the strongest impact in textiles, garments, and sawnwood. The study offers a richer description than previous work of the relationship between price incentives and export performance.

Nigeria's Non-Oil Exports: Determinants of Supply and Demand, 1970-90

This paper reviews Nigeria`s non-oil export performance during the period 1970-90, analyzes the factors underlying the dismal performance, and estimates the supply-price elasticity of the exports for both the short and long run. A distinguishing feature of the analysis is the incorporation of the effect of domestic demand in the export supply equation for agricultural commodity exports -- a feature usually reserved for the manufactured goods where it is generally assumed that domestic demand competes with export demand. The results provide evidence of the adverse effects of restrictive government policies on exports and underscore the utility of pricing policy in eliciting export supply.

Nigeria's Non-Oil Exports: Determinants of Supply and Demand, 1970-1990

This paper reviews Nigeria’s non-oil export performance during the period 1970-90, analyzes the factors underlying the dismal performance, and estimates the supply-price elasticity of the exports for both the short and long run. A distinguishing feature of the analysis is the incorporation of the effect of domestic demand in the export supply equation for agricultural commodity exports--a feature usually reserved for the manufactured goods where it is generally assumed that domestic demand competes with export demand. The results provide evidence of the adverse effects of restrictive government policies on exports and underscore the utility of pricing policy in eliciting export supply.