Non-market Risks Research Articles

Research on safe-haven currencies under global uncertainty —A new perception based on the East Asian market

The backdrop of this research is the high global uncertainty that has amplified the demand for safe-haven assets, particularly in the East Asian market. This paper redefines the concept of a “safe-haven” currency to align with contemporary geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, diverging from the traditional volatility index (VIX) risk measure. We investigate the risk aversion properties of East Asian currencies under these nonmarket risks using dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis and robustness checks with double machine learning. Empirical results reveal that no East Asian currency qualifies as a safe haven under geopolitical risk and trade policy uncertainty. However, the Japanese yen (JPY) maintains its status under the VIX indicator. This study highlights the insufficiency of traditional safe havens like the JPY and underscores the importance of considering nonmarket risks, challenging the effectiveness of traditional investment strategies amid modern geopolitical and policy uncertainties. The findings suggest that investors should prioritize nonmarket risks and call for reform in the global monetary system to enhance currency resilience. The novel methodological approach to evaluating safe-haven currencies addresses the need for diversified currency portfolios to mitigate nonmarket risks.

Methodology for calculating risk factors and assessing the sensitivity of portfolio asset returns when investing in personnel

The authors previously proposed an economic and mathematical model of investing in personnel and also the algorithm for determining of risk-free and the size of non-market risks. The goals of the article are to develop the threat rates and risk sensitive search methods during engineering of investment portfolio through arbitrage pricing theory for investment in personnel to return on investment. Questions of risk evaluation when choosing assets to invest in human capital of a company are fully provided. The covariance structure of allocation of funds of risk-free part of investment portfoliois addressed, that helps to calculate covariance between return on assets and threat rates of investment patterns that is necessary to find factor betas of portfolio. Also, the matrix of budget sharpening is offered that shows the detail investment budgets risk-free pieces split for all assets having regard to risks. The elements got standard interpretation. Then there is the balance condition that is to implement the proof of calculation. Finally, the method of how to calculate and estimate them is given.

Towards crisis protection(ism)? COVID-19 and selective de-globalization

Purpose Drawing on Wendt’s (1995, 1999) thin constructivist approach to international relations this paper aims to critically examine how the measures taken by the Australian Government to protect the country from coronavirus (COVID-19) have prompted politicians and opinion-makers to mobilize globalizing and de-globalizing discourses towards divergent conceptualizations of national resilience. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines 172 Australian political and media articles, which focus on both COVID-19 and globalization/de-globalization published between February and June 2020. The data were imported to NVivo to enable in-depth thematic analysis. Findings The paper develops the concept of crisis protectionism to explain how COVID-19 has been mobilized in discourses aimed at accelerating selective de-globalization in Australia. Selective de-globalization is inductively theorized as involving material structures (i.e. border closures), ideational structures (i.e. national identity) and intersubjectivities (i.e. pre-existing inter-country antagonisms). Research limitations/implications The paper relies upon publicly available data about Australian discourses that relate to a unique globally disrupting extreme event. Practical implications Crisis protectionism and selective de-globalization are important to multinational enterprises (MNE) that operate in essential industry sectors (e.g. medical supply firms), rely upon open borders (e.g. the university sector) and for MNEs entering/operating in a host country experiencing antagonistic relationships with their home country. Originality/value The paper extends Witt’s (2019) political theorization of de-globalization towards a socialized theory of de-globalization. By rejecting liberal and realist explanations of the relationship between COVID-19 and de-globalization, this study highlights the importance and endogeneity of non-market risks and non-economic logic to international business and MNE strategy.

Algorithm for determining risk-free rates and the size of non-market 
 risks when investing in personnel

At the present stage of development, many companies treat investments in the development of the company personnel as investments in the creation of intangible assets that contribute to improving the level of competitiveness of the organization. The authors previously proposed an economic and mathematical model of investing in personnel based on the formation of an investment portfolio, which can be used to assess the financial effectiveness of investments in employee development; to get a clear, reliable tool for monitoring the effectiveness of personnel development activities; make the human factor and its impact on the company's performance more measurable; increase transparency and, consequently, the manageability of the organization. The goal of the article is to develop the risk-free rates and non-market risk rates search algorithm during engineering of investment portfolio through arbitrage pricing theory for investment in personnel to return on investment. The authors fully provide risk-free rate of return description and comprise risk-free rates of assets, too. They give an explanation of how to seek and valuate them. Also the expected risk-free returns of assets calculation method and ways of non-market risks management while investing in personnel is described.

How does experience change firms' foreign investment decisions to non-market events?

Abstract We examine how experience with two types of non-market risks (e.g., natural disasters and armed conflicts) changes foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions. Extending research on organizational learning and FDI, we hypothesize that the greater the experience with recent, frequent and high-intensity risk, the more likely that experience can moderate the relationship between non-market risks and firm international expansion. Given a sample of 625 Fortune Global 500 firms and their investments in 117 countries between 1999 and 2008, we find that experience with recent, frequent, and high-intensity risk can change a firm's FDI decision from risk avoidance to risk management.

Location matters: Valuing firm‐specific nonmarket risk in the global mining industry

AbstractResearch summaryUsing collective action and social movement theory, we investigate the potential incentives and ability of stakeholders to engage in collective action that can increase firm‐specific nonmarket risk of mining companies. We argue that proximity to the nearest environmentally sensitive water source increases the probability that local stakeholders will take collective actions that impose material costs on the focal mine. We hypothesize that stock markets recognize this nonmarket risk and apply a discount on announcements related to mines located near such areas, and that these risks are moderated by the type of mineral, the nature of the water source, and the strength of host country institutions. Using a unique data set and an event study method, we find support for most of our arguments.Managerial summaryWe argue that mines located near environmentally sensitive water sources are subject to nonmarket risks arising from the potential collective actions of local stakeholders and their allies. Stakeholder mobilization can impose material costs on a mine in the form of delays, regulatory hurdles, and closure. We find that stock markets recognize these nonmarket risks and apply a discount on announcements by mining companies whose mines are located near environmentally sensitive water sources, particularly rivers. However, we also find that investor reaction is stronger in countries with strong institutions that support collective action. Thus, nonmarket risk management is important even in countries that are typically characterized by low political and institutional risks. We discuss the degree to which these results can be generalized beyond mining.

Экономическая модель компенсационного фонда в России

The macroeconomic stabilization that took place in Russia has led to a partial transfer of household savings from bank deposits to the securities market. This process determines the relevance of creating institutions to minimize the non-market risks of small investors. As global experience shows, among such institutions, the most important one is the compensation fund. The article discusses projects for the creation of a compensation fund in Russia, previously proposed by the Bank of Russia and the National Association of Stock Market Participants (NAUFOR). The results of recalculating the forecast balance of the compensation fund are presented, based on the previously formulated prerequisites of NAUFOR, but also underpinned by the latest quantitative data, which have changed significantly over the past two years as a result of explosive growth of household investments in the securities market. It is shown that in the new conditions it is impossible to ensure the adequacy of financing of compensation funds on the basis of previously proposed sources. The author presents a new approach to the formation of a compensation fund in Russia, which takes into account not only the new Russian realities, but also the existing global experience in the field of creating compensation funds. In the framework of this approach, the author proposes expanding the list of financing sources for the compensation fund. The article provides forecast estimates of the fund balance and ratios of compensation fund adequacy, calculated on the basis of these proposals, which indicate that this model of the compensation fund is economically viable and could be implemented as soon as possible. Further prospects for the development of a national compensation system, which could include compensation funds operating in various segments of the financial market, are considered.

Towards sustainable mining (Part I): Valuing investment opportunities in the mining sector

Reliance on classical valuation methods such as the net present value (NPV) has often resulted in controversial asset valuations in the mining sector. An alternative method, termed decoupled net present value (DNPV), is used to evaluate mining investment opportunities. The proposed valuation method decouples the time value of money from the risk associated with the project providing a consistent valuation method free from the problems typically associated with the application of NPV. Market risks (e.g., commodity prices, foreign exchange) can be systematically combined with non-market risks (e.g., effect on operations of climate change and/or large earthquakes). More importantly, DNPV allows seamless integration of project risk assessment performed by technical experts and risk management implemented by business executives into the financial evaluation of the project. A simplified mining investment project is analyzed using traditional techniques and compared with the proposed DNPV. The example includes a discussion about how valuation is affected by climate change and earthquake risks, and how investment in resilience and adaption can be incorporated in the proposed analysis.

Mobile Telecommunications: Two Entrepreneurs Enter Africa

Winner of the 2014 EFMD competition for best African Business case.In the 1990s, two entrepreneurs made daring, early entries into mobile telecommunications in Sub-Saharan Africa, both seeing great market opportunities there. One firm, Adesemi, would ultimately go bankrupt. The other firm, Celtel, would ultimately succeed and make its founder, Mo Ibrahim, a star of the global business community. Why the difference in outcome? Emerging markets often present weak rule of law, bringing many challenges to business success—from the demand for bribes to regulatory obstacles, hold-up problems, and even civil war. This case explores strategies that can limit these critical non-market risks in foreign direct investment and entrepreneurship. Students will step into the shoes of both companies by exploring their entry strategies, wrestling with the challenges they faced, and diagnosing the reasons why a shared insight about a new business opportunity turned out to be prescient—and led to extremely different endpoints. Identify key challenges to successful entrepreneurship in emerging markets Evaluate government officials or competitors that might trigger regulatory obstacles or hold-up problems Evaluate potential allies that can help avoid these problems Assess strategies to avoid paying bribes Understand the importance of incentive alignment in directing investment success, even in the face of difficult challenges Identify and appraise the strategic value of partnerships with development agencie

Liquidity Risk in Commercial Banks in India

Liquidity risk is a crucial factor in the business of commercial banking. At the root of the 1997 Asian crisis was the failure of banks to meet liquidity risk arising from differences in currency composition of their assets and liabilities. Diamond and Dybvig (1983), Diamond (1997), Diamond and Rajan (1999) have considered liquidity issues centrally important in theory and functioning of commercial banks. Looked from this perspective, maturity transformation is an important aspect of financial intermediation. Providing deposit insurance is a well accepted measure that enables banks to provide liquidity by maintaining public confidence in the banking system. Similar would be the effect on public confidence where banks are owned by government. With moves towards competition and deregulation, operating in market-oriented business environment becomes crucial which make risk management an important task. The process of financial deregulation leads to increased incidence of market risks such as currency risk and interest rate risk.. Moreover, as clients of commercial banks face competitive business environment, their exposure to credit risk too will increase. In such a situation, maintaining liquidity risk within manageable limits becomes extremely important. Liquidity risk would in fact represent aggregate incidence of market and non-market risks.

Coherent Measures of Risk

In this paper we study both market risks and nonmarket risks, without complete markets assumption, and discuss methods of measurement of these risks. We present and justify a set of four desirable properties for measures of risk, and call the measures satisfying these properties “coherent.” We examine the measures of risk provided and the related actions required by SPAN, by the SEC/NASD rules, and by quantile‐based methods. We demonstrate the universality of scenario‐based methods for providing coherent measures. We offer suggestions concerning the SEC method. We also suggest a method to repair the failure of subadditivity of quantile‐based methods.