Non-fatal Cardiovascular Disease Events Research Articles

Association between weight loss and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in Korea: A nationwide cohort study

AimsWhile the benefit of weight loss in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is recognized, its association with CVD mortality remains controversial. This study investigates the association between weight loss and the incidence of CVD outcomes. MethodsThis was a 7.2-year retrospective cohort study of 1,020,533 adults aged 40–80 years who underwent at least two general health checkups within a 2-year interval in Korea. Weight was measured by trained examiners at certified hospitals. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association between weight loss and the incidence of CVD outcomes. ResultsWeight loss of more than 3 % was associated with an increased risk of combined CVD events (hazard ratio [HR] for moderate weight loss: 1.24, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.21–1.28; HR for severe weight loss: 1.45, 95 % CI: 1.33–1.57). Weight loss was significantly associated with an increased risk of both nonfatal CVD events and CVD mortality, but regular exercise mitigated the adverse effects on CVD mortality. ConclusionsWeight loss of more than 3% is associated with an increased risk of a combined CVD events, consistent across most risk factors. However, regular exercise may reduce the adverse effects on CVD mortality, suggesting a potential protective role of physical activity.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of low-sodium potassium-rich salt substitutes in Indonesia: an equity modelling study

Evidence suggests low-sodium potassium-rich salt substitutes (LSSS) are effective in reducing blood pressure (BP). However, the health and economic impacts of LSSS in Indonesia are currently unknown. We developed a proportional multistate lifetable Markov model to assess a government-led strategy implementing the use of LSSS compared to current regular salt consumption. BP data were derived from the Indonesian Basic Health Research Survey (RISKESDAS 2018), while epidemiological data were from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We estimated implementation costs and the impact of changes in BP on disease events and healthcare costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Outcomes were simulated over different time horizons for the 2019 Indonesian population overall, and by income quintiles. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was done to capture uncertainty. Over the first 10 years, LSSS could prevent 1.5 million non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (8.3%-19.4% reduction) and 643,000 incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) cases (8.2% reduction), while averting over 200,000 CVD and CKD deaths (0.2%-5.2% reduction). This translated to over 24.6 million health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained over the lifetime of the population, and reduced CVD-related health inequalities (concentration index,-0.075, 95% CI:-0.088 to-0.062). Implementation cost (US$ 1.2 billion [IDR 17.2 trillion] total; US$ 4.5 [IDR 63,665] per capita, as of July 2019) was outweighed by the net health expenditure savings (∼US$ 2 billion [IDR 27.7 trillion] total; US$ 7.3 [IDR 103,300] per capita) in the first 10 years. LSSS were cost-saving over the lifetime, and very cost-effective even with a high LSSS price. Scaling the use of LSSS nationally could be a cost-saving strategy to prevent substantial cardiovascular and kidney disease burden in Indonesia. Griffith University Postdoctoral Fellowship.

Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions.

The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals. The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e., LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual-participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687,135 individuals without established CVD, 30,939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death, and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1,657,707 individuals (61,311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95%CI 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (CPRD) and Netherlands (ELAN). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example a 50-year-old smoking woman with a SBP of 140 mm Hg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low risk region versus 1.6 years in the very high risk region from lifelong 10 mm Hg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low risk region to 4.8 years in the very high risk region. By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines.

Non–High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Levels From Childhood to Adulthood and Cardiovascular Disease Events

Elevated non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C; a recommended measure of lipid-related cardiovascular risk) is common in children and increases risk of adult cardiovascular disease (CVD). Whether resolution of elevated childhood non-HDL-C levels by adulthood is associated with reduced risk of clinical CVD events is unknown. To examine the associations of non-HDL-C status between childhood and adulthood with incident CVD events. Individual participant data from 6 prospective cohorts of children (mean age at baseline, 10.7 years) in the US and Finland. Recruitment took place between 1970 and 1996, with a final follow-up in 2019. Child (age 3-19 years) and adult (age 20-40 years) non-HDL-C age- and sex-specific z scores and categories according to clinical guideline-recommended cutoffs for dyslipidemia. Incident fatal and nonfatal CVD events adjudicated by medical records. Over a mean length of follow-up of 8.9 years after age 40 years, 147 CVD events occurred among 5121 participants (60% women; 15% Black). Both childhood and adult non-HDL-C levels were associated with increased risk of CVD events (hazard ratio [HR], 1.42 [95% CI, 1.18-1.70] and HR, 1.50 [95% CI, 1.26-1.78] for a 1-unit increase in z score, respectively), but the association for childhood non-HDL-C was reduced when adjusted for adult levels (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 0.89-1.41]). A complementary analysis showed that both childhood non-HDL-C levels and the change between childhood and adulthood were independently associated with the outcome, suggesting that from a preventive perspective, both childhood non-HDL-C levels and the change into adulthood are informative. Compared with those whose non-HDL-C levels remained within the guideline-recommended range in childhood and adulthood, participants who had incident non-HDL-C dyslipidemia from childhood to adulthood and those with persistent dyslipidemia had increased risks of CVD events (HR, 2.17 [95% CI, 1.00-4.69] and HR, 5.17 [95% CI, 2.80-9.56], respectively). Individuals who had dyslipidemic non-HDL-C in childhood but whose non-HDL-C levels were within the guideline-recommended range in adulthood did not have a significantly increased risk (HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.50-2.56]). Individuals with persistent non-HDL-C dyslipidemia from childhood to adulthood had an increased risk of CVD events, but those in whom dyslipidemic non-HDL-C levels resolve by adulthood have similar risk to individuals who were never dyslipidemic. These findings suggest that interventions to prevent and reduce elevated childhood non-HDL-C levels may help prevent premature CVD.

Abstract 08: Blood Pressure Percentile Charts Better Identify High Risk Young Adults: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study

Introduction: Current guidelines set a static threshold for diagnosis of hypertension based on absolute blood pressure (BP) levels for all ages. However, BP generally increases with age and relative levels tend to track within individuals from young adulthood on. We aimed to determine whether BP percentiles , compared to the current AHA/ACC clinical thresholds for hypertension, are better able to identify young adults at higher risk for future CVD events. Methods: Among 5,115 CARDIA participants (ppts; mean age 25 yrs; 54% female; 51% Black), we used baseline BP level and over 35 years of follow-up for fatal and non-fatal CVD events. We calculated normative BP percentiles for adults aged 18 and older using NHANES by estimating underlying BP among treated individuals combined with observed BP for untreated individuals (Figure). Using these BP Percentile Charts, we calculated the baseline BP percentile for each ppt. Adjusted survival analyses examined the association between BP percentile (in deciles) and incident CVD events over 30 years. C statistics for models using BP percentiles vs those using current guideline-recommended thresholds were compared to determine relative accuracy. Results: At baseline, mean S/DBP was 112/70 mmHg and <1% were on antihypertensive medications. Adjusted HRs for BP percentile decile demonstrated a dose-response effect with increasing risk associated with higher deciles of SBP. Compared to the 5 th decile young adults with SBPs in the highest decile 90-100% (SBP ≥127 for men and ≥120 for women) had a HR of 1.76 (95% CI 1.10-2.83). C statistics for models using BP percentiles were higher than for models using guideline-recommended thresholds (0.724 vs 0.713). No significant association was seen with DBP deciles. Conclusion: BP percentiles are better able to predict future CVD risk in young adults as compared to current age-invariant thresholds. These methods may help to risk stratify young adults and more accurately identify higher risk individuals for early prevention efforts.

European Lipid Guidelines and Cardiovascular Risk Estimation: Current Status and Future Challenges.

Genetic, experimental, epidemiologic, and clinical data support the causal role of elevated levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The recommendations of the 2019 European guidelines are based on the concept of differential CV risk, which in turn defines the LDL-C goals that should be achieved. The 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines for dyslipidaemia use the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model to assess CV risk, which provides a 10-year risk of fatal CV event. The SCORE model has recently been updated to reflect current rates of cardiovascular disease in Europe. The new SCORE2 model provides estimates of the 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events in people aged 40-69 years, thus improving the identification of individuals at higher risk of a CVD event. However, as in the SCORE age is the main determinant of risk, young people have a relatively low estimated 10-year risk of a CV event even with high levels of one or more causal risk factors. Individuals with familial hypercholesterolaemia, who have elevated LDL-C levels from birth and have a high risk of premature CVD, are one example. The concept of cumulative LDL exposure is thus becoming increasingly important. This is also supported by Mendelian randomisation studies showing that carrying genetic variants associated with lower LDL-C levels reduces CV risk. These observations have introduced the concept of "cholesterol-years", which takes into account both LDL-C levels and time of exposure. It is crucial that future European guidelines pay more attention to this point.

Association between cardiovascular risk profile and impaired microvascular function in a Swedish middle-aged cohort (the SCAPIS study).

The aim was to investigate the relationship between microvascular function, cardiovascular risk profile, and subclinical atherosclerotic burden. The study enrolled 3809 individuals, 50-65 years old, participating in the population-based observational cross-sectional Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study. Microvascular function was assessed in forearm skin using an arterial occlusion and release protocol determining peak blood oxygen saturation (OxyP). Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the updated Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation [SCORE2; 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events]. The OxyP was compared with coronary artery calcification score (CACS) and to plaques in the carotid arteries. Individuals with OxyP values in the lowest quartile (Q1; impaired microvascular function) had a mean SCORE2 of 5.8% compared with 3.8% in those with the highest values of OxyP (Q4), a relative risk increase of 53%. The risk of having a SCORE2 > 10% was five times higher for those in Q1 (odds ratio: 4.96, 95% confidence interval: 2.76-8.93) vs. Q4 when adjusting for body mass index and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. The OxyP was lower in individuals with CACS > 0 and in those with both carotid plaques and CACS > 0, compared with individuals without subclinical atherosclerotic burdens (87.5 ± 5.6% and 86.9 ± 6.0%, vs. 88.6 ± 5.8%, P < 0.01). In a population without CVD or diabetes mellitus, impaired microvascular function is associated with cardiovascular risk profiles such as higher SCORE2 risk and CACS. We suggest that OxyP may serve as a microcirculatory functional marker of subclinical atherosclerosis and CVD risk that is not detected by structural assessments.

Chronic Stress and Cardiovascular Events: Findings From the CARDIA Study

Higher levels of perceived stress are associated with adverse cardiovascular health. It is plausible that these associations are attenuated among individuals with positive psychological factors such as social support and health-enhancing behaviors. Therefore, this study examined longitudinal associations of chronic stress with cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, and whether social support and physical activity (PA) modify these associations. Data from 3,401 adults (mean age 40.2 years; 46.7% Black; 56.2% women) from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study, with no prior CVD event in 2000-2001 were analyzed. Chronic stress lasting ≥6 months across 5 life domains (work, financial, relationships, health of self, and health of close other) was self-reported. Adjudicated CVD events (fatal/or nonfatal CVD event) were ascertained yearly through 2020. PA and social support were self-reported via questionnaires. Statistical analyses were conducted in 2023 using multivariable stepwise Accelerated Failure Time analysis to assess associations between key study variables. The mean chronic stress score was 1.30±1.33 stressors and, by 2020, 220 participants had experienced a CVD event. Chronic stress was associated with lowered survival (time ratio: 0.92; 95% CI: 0.854-0.989), when adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle variables but no longer significant when adjusting for clinical factors. Neither PA nor social support were significant modifiers (all ps>0.05). Chronic stress was associated with the risk of having a CVD event among middle-aged adults, due at least in part to clinical mediators. Studies should continue exploring positive psychosocial and behavioral factors that may modify this association.

QRISK3 underestimates the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with COPD

BackgroundPatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). The extent to which the excess CVD risk is captured by risk factors in QRISK,...

Abstract 17817: Deep Learning-Based Retinal Imaging for Predicting Cardiovascular Disease Events in Prediabetic and Diabetic Patients: A Study Using the UK Biobank

Introduction: Our previous work led to developing a deep learning algorithm for retinal images, Reti-CVD, which effectively predicted cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals without CVD history, leveraging coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores for algorithm training. Hypothesis: This study aims to assess the capability of deep learning-assisted retinal imaging to predict CVD events among prediabetic and diabetic patients using the data from the UK Biobank. Methods: Our study included prediabetic and diabetic patients from the UK Biobank. Reti-CVD scores were calculated and categorized into three risk groups - low (n=550), moderate (n=276), and high (n=275), based on the 50th and 75th percentiles, following a 2:1:1 ratio. To assess the Reti-CVD's ability in predicting fatal and non-fatal CVD events, we performed a survival analysis on the longitudinal data from the UK Biobank using Cox proportional-hazards models and hazard ratios (HRs). Results: Among the 1101 prediabetic or diabetic patients at the onset, 138 (12.5%) experienced CVD events. According to Reti-CVD scores, these events were found as 8.2% (45/550), 15.2% (42/276), and 18.5% (51/275) in the low, moderate, and high-risk groups over a median follow-up period of 11 years, respectively. After adjusting for factors such as age, gender, hypertensive medication use, statin use, and smoking history, a significant association was observed between the Reti-CVD and the incidence of CVD events (HR=1.57, 95% CI, 1.00-2.47 for the moderate-risk group; HR=1.88, 95% CI, 1.19-2.98 for the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group). An increasing HR trend of 1.36 (95% CI, 1.09-1.70) was observed across risk groups in the prediction of CVD events. Conclusions: The Reti-CVD offers a valuable tool for risk stratification among prediabetic and diabetic patients, indicating its potential in managing these high-risk groups.

Abstract 17076: The Relationship Between Impaired Microvascular Function, Cardiovascular Risk Profile and Subclinical Atherosclerotic Burden in a Swedish Middle-Aged Cohort

Introduction: Microvascular function is associated with cardiovascular risk factors and deteriorates in individuals with cardiovascular disease. Hypothesis: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between microvascular function, cardiovascular risk profile and subclinical atherosclerotic burden. Methods: The study enrolled 3809 randomly selected individuals, 50-65 years old, participating in the population-based observational cross-sectional Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS). Microvascular function was measured in forearm skin using an arterial occlusion and release protocol determining the peak blood oxygen saturation, OxyP. Cardiovascular risk was calculated using the updated Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE2; 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events). OxyP was compared with Coronary artery calcification score (CACS) and plaques in the carotid arteries. Results: Individuals with OxyP values in the lowest quartile (Q1; impaired microvascular function), had a mean SCORE2 of 5.8% compared to 3.8% in those with the highest values of OxyP (Q4), a relative risk increase of 53%. In the low-risk SCORE2 level (&lt;5% risk), 19.0% of the individuals have impaired microvascular function as compared to 48.1% in the high-risk SCORE2 level (&gt;10% risk). OxyP was lower in individuals with coronary artery calcification (CACS&gt;0) and those with both carotid plaque and CACS&gt;0, as compared to individuals without subclinical atherosclerotic burden (CACS=0 and no carotid plaque; 87.5 ±5.6 % and 86.9 ±6.0 % vs 88.6 ± 5.8 %, p &lt; 0.01). Conclusion: In a population without cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus, impaired microvascular function is associated with higher SCORE2 risk and CACS&gt;0. Hence, assessment of microvascular function may be a useful tool for accurate cardiovascular risk prediction, in addition to imaging assessment of atherosclerosis in the coronary and carotid arteries.

Abstract 14288: α1-Antichymotrypsin Complex (SERPINA3) is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term All-Cause Mortality, but Did Not Predict CVD Events

Introduction: SERPINA3 is an acute phase protein triggered by inflammation. It inhibits neutrophil cathepsin which cleaves protease-activated receptor 4 (PAR-4) via a thrombin-independent pathway, and mast cell chymase which mediates the production of angiotensin-II via an ACE-independent pathway. SERPINA3 is upregulated after an acute myocardial infarction (MI), but data on its long-term prognostic value in MI patients are scarce. Aim: To assess the utility of SERPINA3 as a prognostic marker in patients hospitalized for chest pain of suspected coronary origin. Methods: A total of 871 consecutive patients were included (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00521976). Stepwise Cox regression models, applying continuous log e -transformed values, were fitted for each of the biomarkers with all-cause mortality and cardiac death within median 24-months (mo) and all-cause mortality within median 7 years (y) as the dependent variables, adding an analysis of 1) all-cause mortality or MI, and 2) all-cause mortality or MI or stroke at 7 y follow up (FU). The hazard ratio (HR) (95% CI) was assessed in a univariate and multivariable model, adjusting for traditional clinical cardiovascular risk factors, adding BNP, hsCRP, TnT. Results: Plasma samples from 847 patients were available. At 24 mo FU, 138 (15.8%) patients had died, of which 86 were cardiac deaths. The univariate analysis showed a positive, significant association between SERPINA3 and total death [HR 1.42 (95% 1.19-1.68), p =0.000], but was not significant for cardiac death. Associations after multivariable adjustment were statistically non-significant. At 7 y FU, 332 (38.1%) patients had died. After adjustment, SERPINA3 was independently associated with all-cause mortality [HR 1.14 (95% CI, 1.02-1.28), p=0.022], but not for MI (n=203), and stroke (n=55), respectively, and remained essentially unaffected for all-cause mortality or MI combined (n=404) [HR 1.12 (95% CI, 1.01-1.24), p=0.031], slightly weakened when stroke also was added (n=422) [HR 1.10 (95% CI, 1.00-1.22), p=0.060]. Conclusions: SERPINA3 predicts long-term all-cause mortality, but had no prognostic bearing on short-term cardiac death. Introducing non-fatal CVD events during long-term FU did not improve its prognostic value.

Persistence of Detectable Anti-Pneumococcal Antibodies 4 Years After Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccination in a Randomised Controlled Trial: The Australian Study for the Prevention through Immunisation of Cardiovascular Events (AUSPICE)

Mouse models have indicated that the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) can reduce atherosclerosis. This is probably through a process of molecular mimicry, where phosphorylcholine in the capsular polysaccharide of the vaccine elicits antibodies that cross-react with oxidised low-density lipoprotein and reduce plaque. We investigated whether a similar mechanism occurs in humans. A large national blinded, randomised, placebo-controlled trial of the PPV (Australian Study for the Prevention through Immunisation of Cardiovascular Events [AUSPICE]) is underway with fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events as the primary outcome. Participants at one centre agreed to a substudy measuring a number of biomarkers and surrogates of CVD over 4 years, including anti-pneumococcal antibodies (immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin M), C-reactive protein, carotid intima-media thickness, pulse wave velocity, insulin, fasting blood glucose, glycated haemoglobin, and hepatorenal index. Antipneumococcal immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin M were both present and statistically significantly increased in the treated group compared to control at 4 years. However, there were no differences in any of the surrogate measures of CVD or metabolic markers at 4 years. While there were prolonged differences in anti-pneumococcal antibody titres following PPV vaccination, these did not appear to provide any cardioprotective effect, as measured by a range of markers. Final results using the fatal and nonfatal CVD events await the completion of national health record linkage next year. ACTRN12615000536561.

Fish Intake in Relation to Fatal and Non-Fatal Cardiovascular Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies.

Epidemiological studies have shown that eating fish significantly reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality. However, more focused meta-analyses based on the most recent results from prospective cohort studies are needed. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to update the association between fish intake and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using recent prospective studies. A systematic review and meta-analysis following the PRISMA guideline was conducted based on a random effects synthesis of multivariable-adjusted relative risks (RRs) of high vs. low categories of fish intake in relation to CVD incidence and mortality. Non-linear meta-regression was applied to investigate the shape of the association between fish intake and CVD risk. Sensitivity analysis and stratifications by type of CVD outcome, type of fish intake and type of cooking were performed. Based on 18 papers reporting 17 independent estimates of CVD risk (1,442,407 participants and 78,805 fatal and non-fatal CVD events), high vs. low intake of fish corresponded to about 8% reduced CVD risk (RR = 0.93 [0.88-0.98]). According to a non-linear dose-response meta-regression, 50 g of fish intake per day corresponded to a statistically significant 9% reduced fatal and non-fatal CVD risk (RR = 0.92 [0.90-0.95]). Similarly, fish intake in the range of a weekly intake of two to three portions of fish with a size of 150 g resulted in 8% fatal and non-fatal CVD risk reduction (RR = 0.93 [0.91-0.96]). The recommended two portions of fish a week reduces the risk of CVD outcomes by approximately 10%. A full portion of fish a day reduces CVD risk by up to 30%.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10-year forecasting model.

To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar. A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non-fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40-79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates. Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249-112 172] non-fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283-65 520) non-fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472-14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718-3 830 669) total quality-adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53-147.40 billion (US$2.06-40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07-162.60 billion (US$292.05 million-44.55 billion)]. The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

Prediction of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease, by risk factors level: the ATTICA epidemiological cohort study (2002–2022)

PurposeWe aimed to predict lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). MethodsThe sample consisted of 1988 participants with complete CVD data during the 20-year follow-up (50% men, 45 ± 14 years) of the ATTICA study. Lifetime risk for CVD was predicted at specific index ages (40, 50, and 60 years), based on the life-table method, with death free-of-CVD treated as a competing event. Results718 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal CVD event, corresponding to a crude CVD incidence of 36.1% (men: 40.2%, women: 32.1%, P-value < .001). Overall, women and men had similar lifetime CVD risk (P-value = .245); at index age of 40, the lifetime risk for CVD was 68% for men and 63% for women, with a progressive decline to 56% and 50% at the index age of 50, and to 55% for both men and women, at the index age of 60 years, respectively. ConclusionsThese results on lifetime risk for CVD can guide the allocation of resources to improve public health and preventive services, especially in ages below 50 years, in both men and women.

Changes in Physical Activity and Incidence of Nonfatal Cardiovascular Events in 47 153 Survivors of Myocardial Infarction.

Background The majority of patients survive the acute phase of myocardial infarction (MI) but have an increased risk of recurrent cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. To be regularly physically active or change activity level is associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. The objective was to explore to what extent physical activity (PA) levels or change in PA levels during the first year post-MI was associated with any recurrent nonfatal CVD events and specific CVD events (eg, MI, ischemic stroke, and vascular dementia). Methods and Results This cohort study among MI survivors was based on Swedish national registries between 2005 and 2020. PA levels were self-rated at 2 and 12 months post-MI, and patients were classified into remaining physically inactive, increasing, decreasing, or remaining active. A total of 6534 nonfatal CVD events occurred during 6 years of follow-up among the 47 153 included patients. In fully adjusted analyses, the risk of any nonfatal CVD event was lower (P<0.05) among patients remaining active (37%), increasing (22%), or decreasing (18%) PA level compared with remaining inactive. Compared with remaining inactive, the risk of recurring MI and stroke was lower (P>0.05) among remaining active (41% versus 52%, respectively), increasing (20% versus 35%, respectively), or decreasing PA level (24% versus 34%, respectively). For vascular dementia, patients remaining physically active had an 80% lower risk compared with remaining inactive (P<0.05). Conclusions Remaining physically active or change in PA levels during the first year post-MI was associated with a lower risk of recurrent nonfatal CVD events. This emphasizes the importance of supporting patients to continue to be or become physically active.

Cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality associated with individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors

BackgroundPrevious studies have investigated the association between cardiometabolic risk factors and cardiovascular disease (CVD), but evidence of the attributable burden of individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors for CVD and mortality is limited. We aimed to investigate and quantify the associations and population attributable fraction (PAF) of cardiometabolic risk factors on CVD and all-cause mortality, and calculate the loss of CVD-free years and years of life lost in relation to the presence of cardiometabolic risk factors.MethodsTwenty-two thousand five hundred ninety-six participants aged ≥ 35 without CVD at baseline were included between October 2012 and December 2015. The outcomes were the composite of fatal and nonfatal CVD events and all-cause mortality, which were followed up in 2018 and 2019 and ascertained by hospital records and death certificates. Cox regression was applied to evaluate the association of individual and combined cardiometabolic risk factors (including hypertension, diabetes and high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)) with CVD risk and all-cause mortality. We also described the PAF for CVD and reductions in CVD-free years and life expectancy associated with different combination of cardiometabolic conditions.ResultsDuring the 4.92 years of follow-up, we detected 991 CVD events and 1126 deaths. Hazard ratio were 1.59 (95% confidential interval (CI) 1.37–1.85), 1.82 (95%CI 1.49–2.24) and 2.97 (95%CI 1.85–4.75) for CVD and 1.38 (95%CI 1.20–1.58), 1.66 (95%CI 1.37–2.02) and 2.97 (95%CI 1.88–4.69) for all-cause mortality, respectively, in participants with one, two or three cardiometabolic risk factors compared with participants without diabetes, hypertension, and high LDL-C. 21.48% of CVD and 15.38% of all-cause mortality were attributable to the combined effect of diabetes and hypertension. Participants aged between 40 and 60 years old, with three cardiometabolic disorders, had approximately 4.3-year reductions life expectancy compared with participants without any abnormalities of cardiometabolic disorders.ConclusionsCardiometabolic risk factors were associated with a multiplicative risk of CVD incidence and all-cause mortality, highlighting the importance of comprehensive management for hypertension, diabetes and dyslipidemia in the prevention of CVD.

Leisure time and occupational physical activity, overall and cardiovascular mortality: a 24-year follow-up in the OPERA study

Background In earlier studies, the health benefits of physical activity have only been related to leisure time physical activity (LTPA). High occupational physical activity (OPA) might even be harmful. The current physical activity recommendations do not separate the OPA and LTPA. We investigated the effect of LTPA and OPA on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality during long-term follow-up. We also examined how heavy work affects the benefits of leisure time exercise. Material and methods The study was part of the OPERA study and the baseline examinations were conducted between the years 1991 and 1993. The Follow-up of events continued until the end of the year 2020. Study subjects (n = 1044) were divided into four groups according to their LTPA (“no exercise”, “irregular”, “regular” and “heavy regular”) and into three groups according to their OPA (“no activity”, “mild” and “heavy”). The amount of exercise was self-reported and the exercise status was defined at the beginning of the study. Study subjects were followed up for their overall mortality (26 years), fatal and non-fatal CVD events (24 and 20 years) and heart failure (20 years). The survival analysis was performed using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox-proportional hazard models. Results “Heavy” OPA group subjects belonging to the “irregular” (less than 1–2 times 30 min exercise per week) LTPA group experienced the lowest overall mortality compared to other LTPA groups. Also, overall mortality was increased in the “mild” (p = 0.002) and CVD mortality in the” heavy” (p = 0.005) OPA group compared to “no activity”. The incidence of heart failure was increased in the “no exercise” LTPA compared to the “heavy regular” (p = 0.015) group. Conclusions Study subjects who were in physically demanding occupations (heavy OPA) seemed to benefit from less LTPA than WHO currently recommends. Thus we suggest targeting different LTPA recommendations to different OPA groups.

Hepatic steatosis with significant fibrosis is associated with an increased 10-year estimated risk of cardiovascular disease in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus

BackgroundWe assessed whether hepatic steatosis with or without significant fibrosis (determined by validated non-invasive biomarkers) is associated with an increased 10-year estimated risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).MethodsWe conducted a retrospective, multicenter, cross-sectional study involving 1,254 adults with established T1DM without pre-existing CVD. We used the hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and fibrosis (FIB)-4 index for non-invasively detecting hepatic steatosis (defined as HSI > 36), with or without coexisting significant fibrosis (defined as FIB-4 index ≥ 1.3 or < 1.3). We calculated the Steno type 1 risk engine and the atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk score to estimate the 10-year risk of developing a first fatal or nonfatal CVD event.ResultsUsing the Steno type 1 risk engine, a significantly greater proportion of patients with hepatic steatosis and significant fibrosis (n = 91) had a high 10-year estimated CVD risk compared to those with hepatic steatosis alone (n = 509) or without steatosis (n = 654) (75.8% vs. 23.2% vs. 24.9%, p < 0.001). After adjustment for sex, BMI, diabetes duration, hemoglobin A1c, chronic kidney disease, and lipid-lowering medication use, patients with hepatic steatosis and significant fibrosis had an increased 10-year estimated risk of developing a first fatal or nonfatal CVD event (adjusted-odds ratio 11.4, 95% confidence interval 3.54–36.9) than those without steatosis. We observed almost identical results using the ASCVD risk calculator.ConclusionsThe 10-year estimated CVD risk is remarkably greater in T1DM adults with hepatic steatosis and significant fibrosis than in their counterparts with hepatic steatosis alone or without steatosis.