Non-democratic Regimes Research Articles

The EU democracy policy in Latin America: narrative and funding

Democracy is a central concern in the EU narrative toward Latin America; still, the allocation of funds does not follow this narrative closely, resulting in a chronic lack of support for local CSOs. The allocated funds face misappropriation by local authorities and the indirect support of low- and non-democratic regimes, reflected in the affected countries’ drop in indices that measure Social Progress and Democracy. This situation is further aggravated by prioritizing projects that reflect EU-centered agendas and skew the critical aid needed for democracy resilience building. As a response, we bring forward recommendations for the EU to bridge the gap between its democracy policy narrative and execution in Latin America, focusing on the particular needs of the region’s democratic agents.

“Business as Usual”? Human Rights NGOs’ Adaptation Strategies to Repressive Legislation

Over the last two decades, governments have increasingly been adopting legislative measures that limit civil society and human rights organizations. While several studies explored the response of nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in nondemocratic regimes to such measures, the literature on the response of NGOs in liberal democracies remains scarce. We examine this by analyzing the case of Israel. We conducted in-depth interviews with 30 position holders in 13 human rights NGOs, as well as lengthy ethnographic participant observations in two of these organizations. Our findings show that organizational responses varied significantly, ranging from minor to very significant changes. Furthermore, the direction of these changes was not uniform. While some organizations chose to intensify and radicalize their message, others preferred to depoliticize and appease domestic audiences. We reflect on the possible drivers of such strategic organizational differences and discuss the more general effects of repressive legislation in liberal democracies.

The principal components of electoral regimes: separating autocracies from pseudo-democracies.

A critical issue for society today is the emergence and decline of democracy worldwide. It is unclear, however, how democratic features, such as elections and civil liberties, influence this change. Democracy indices, which are the standard tool to study this question, are based on the a priori assumption that improvement in any individual feature strengthens democracy overall. We show that this assumption does not always hold. We use the V-Dem dataset for a quantitative study of electoral regimes worldwide during the twentieth century. We find a so-far overlooked trade-off between election capability and civil liberties. In particular, we identify a threshold in the democratization process at which the correlation between election capability and civil liberties flips from negative to positive. Below this threshold, we can thus clearly separate two kinds of non-democratic regimes: autocracies that govern through tightly controlled elections and regimes in which citizens are free but under less certainty-a distinction that existing democracy indices cannot make.

Why Do Activists in Exile Support Civil Society in Non-democratic Regimes? The Case of Perviy Otdel

Abstract This study delves into the identities and motivations of members, specifically focusing on the human rights organization, of Perviy Otdel (First Department). Amid escalating tensions and the outbreak of war, these activists find themselves navigating the challenges of addressing politically-charged court cases related to state treason in Russia, all while operating from abroad due to increased risks and threats. Drawing from the theoretical lenses of transnational activism and an identity-based paradigm, our research unpacks the complex dynamics of activism in exile. Through a discourse analysis of ten semi-structured interviews with Perviy Otdel members spanning various hierarchical positions, research uncovers how the war and subsequent displacement have reshaped their professional and personal identities. The findings illuminate the unwavering commitment of these activists-in-exile to the cause of human rights and offer insights into the evolving landscape of global human rights advocacy in the face of geopolitical challenges.

A tale of two cities: spillover effects of electoral shocks in non-democratic regimes

ABSTRACT Electoral shocks have spillover effects in democracies, as they can change citizens’ political attitudes and political behaviour across national borders. Yet, electoral shocks also exist in non-democratic regimes. Do electoral shocks likewise lead to spillover within a non-democratic regime? To explore this question, I build on Lohmann’s idea of information cascade and study the spillover of the 2019 Hong Kong local election, in which the opposition won a landslide victory. Using a survey fielded in Macau during this event, I find liberalizing effects among middle-class citizens: after the electoral shock, their democratic commitment increases while their perceived electoral fairness decreases. Conversely, lower-class citizens experience backlash effects as they assess the electoral system more positively and briefly consider democracy as less important. However, these changes in political attitudes do not translate into changes in expressed vote choice and other types of political participation. Regarding the mechanism of the attitudinal change, I suggest such polarized reactions are related to the different information consumption among the two classes. I discuss how these findings contribute to the literature on non-democratic regimes, electoral shocks, and class politics.

Verborgene Transformation des autoritären Regionalismus: Biografien der Beamt*innen als Abbildung der Funktionen der Organisationen

AbstractAuthoritarian regionalism constitutes a challenging topic for empirical research due to a substantial gap between official mandates and the actual practices of regional organizations (ROs). While formally most authoritarian ROs “download” the global script of regionalism and imitate the European Union, in practice, they are used by their member states for different purposes than economic integration—in particular, to legitimize the nondemocratic regimes. At the same time, there are also examples of authoritarian ROs that go beyond simple autocracy-sustaining rhetoric and have actual policy implications. This paper argues that the differences between authoritarian ROs can be better observed if one looks not at the official mandates but at the background of their key officials. Using the case of post-Soviet Eurasia with its proliferation of authoritarian ROs, I show that a look at the biographies of officials clearly reveals the existence of two generations of ROs—one with primarily symbolic importance and one with actual economic integration ambitions.

Authoritarian succession, rules, and conflicts: Tokayev’s gambit and Kazakhstan’s bloody January of 2022 (Qandy Qantar)

ABSTRACT The authoritarian succession literature indicates that non-democratic regimes install rules and institutions that supposedly ensure a smooth transition from ruler to a chosen successor. However, this scholarship cannot explain why some authoritarian successions happen as planned while others end in surprising violence. This article unpacks the puzzle of the transition of power from Nursultan Nazarbayev (1991–2019) to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (2019–present) in autocratic Kazakhstan. Based on in-depth interviews with more than 15 informants and the analysis of media and secondary sources, we explore why and how the planned succession in Kazakhstan resulted in the bloodshed known as the 2022 Bloody January (Qandy Qantar). We demonstrate that two factors derailed the succession plan: the configuration of authoritarian rules and the presence of political ambitions of Tokayev. Our main argument is that the Nazarbayev succession plan led to elite disunity, escalating the political conflict into the violent 2022 Bloody January.

The Iron Dice: Fatalism and War

Abstract Leaders in international relations often exhibit fatalism, or the belief that events are guided by forces beyond their control. In some cases, fatalism may reflect reality, or be rhetoric to boost support. But there is also an important psychological explanation: fatalism can help leaders avoid responsibility for costly outcomes and protect their self-image. Fatalism is more likely: (1) in regard to bad outcomes versus good outcomes; (2) when war is seen as imminent versus far-off; and (3) in nondemocratic regimes versus democratic regimes. The concept of fatalism is central to philosophy, religion, medicine, sociology, and psychology, but has been neglected by scholars in international relations. Fatalism may be an important cause of war, especially when combined with a perceived window of opportunity. This research contributes to democratic peace theory by helping explain the lack of war between representative regimes. If elected leaders are less prone to extreme fatalism about war, democracies may have more room to maneuver in a crisis. I use case studies of the origins of World War I and World War II to probe the argument.

Digital activism and authoritarian legitimation in post-Soviet Central Asia

Scholarly research on the role of digital activism in authoritarian settings has largely centered around debates on “liberation technology” versus “networked authoritarianism”. In this article we aim to extend existing research by linking authoritarian legitimation theories with emerging scholarship on digital activism. We examine Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, two autocracies in post-Soviet Central Asia, and show how non-democratic regimes use digital activism for legitimation purposes. Our study draws on 33 qualitative in-depth interviews with digital activists and state officials in both countries to generate critical comparative insights into how modern autocracies function in the digital age. Our analysis suggests that autocracies use four mutually inclusive and escalating legitimation mechanisms (limited participation, outputs legitimation, regime discourse, and targeted repression) in their interactions with digital activists to become more resilient.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin: A Study of a Rank-and-File Actor in an Authoritarian Regime

The article analyses the thinking of the Russian prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin, about the current political regime. The analysis considers his personal policy agenda, which is informed by serving in technocratic positions and his ideological positioning within the Russian political elite, as well as the role of the prime minister in Russian politics. Special attention is dedicated to Mishustin’s perception of the invasion of Ukraine and its impact on Russian politics. Our findings illuminate the role of rank-and-file political actors not only in the context of the Russian non-democratic regime but in personalised autocracies in general.

The Political Economics of Non-democracy

We survey recent theoretical and empirical literature on political economics of non-democracies. Nondemocratic regimes face multiple challenges to their rule, both internal, such as palace coups or breakdown of their support coalition, and external, such as mass protests or revolutions. We analyze strategic decisions made by dictators from the standpoint of maximizing the chances of regime survival in the light of these challenges, and show how it explains multiple common patterns, from hiring political loyalists to positions that require competence, to restricting media freedom at the cost of sacrificing bureaucratic efficiency, to running propaganda campaigns, organizing election fraud, purging opponents and associates, and repressing citizens. (JEL D72, D73, D82, D83, L82, O17)

Legal Basis of the Formation and Functioning of the Democratic Regime: the Antinomy of Liberalism and Totalitarism

The article is devoted to the problems of the legal foundations of the formation and functioning of a democratic regime in its liberal and totalitarian dimensions. At the same time, since the unlimited power of the people hides the danger of totalitarianism, which has repeatedly manifested itself in the past of both our country and the world as a whole, the study of the democratic regime is of an urgent nature. Therefore, the purpose of this study is the legal basis of the formation and functioning of a democratic regime in the context of its interaction with liberalism and totalitarianism. The implementation of the specified goal requires the performance of a number of scientific tasks. The article substantiates that «pure» political regimes have a sufficiently abstract character. It was found that within the framework of the «dual» approach there are two dichotomies of political regimes: depending on the interaction of the state with the individual and according to the affiliation of sovereignty. It is proven that as a result of duality, the regime of «totalitarian democracy» is distinguished, an example of which is the USSR during the era of the personality cult of Y. Stalin, and the regime of «liberal democracy», the example of which is the USA for a significant part of its history. The article concludes that the philosophical foundation of «totalitarian democracy» was formed within the framework of the so-called «theory of collectivist democracy», according to which the people were considered as a multi-headed single collective being, which could often have negative consequences in the form of, for example, the maxim «enemy of the people». It is emphasized that the involvement of the broad masses of the people in the repressive Stalinist system created a certain «democratic surrogate» - the Soviet «totalitarian democracy», under which the Soviet people are involved in the trials of the «enemies of the people» (democratic dimension), and the nature of the repression itself has a mass character, which brings it closer to genocide (totalitarian dimension). It was found that the liberal-democratic regime in the USA was formed as a result of the combination of the fact that the people take an active part in the sending of state power (democratic dimension) and the constitutional and legal declaration, as a fundamental principle, of freedom (liberal dimension). The practical value of the work lies in the need to create safeguards for the revival of totalitarianism in the world in conditions of active use of the postulates of democracy by non-democratic regimes.

Why Autocracies Fear LGBTQ+ Rights

Abstract: During the past decades, the rights of sexual minorities have been subject to both expansion and resistance at domestic and international levels. This essay investigates the resistance to sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) rights by focusing on the position of autocratic regimes in international organizations. It examines the history and evolution of discussions regarding SOGI within the United Nations (UN) and presents an analysis of the positions taken by countries in all SOGI resolutions adopted by the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Democracies and autocracies are clearly divided on the topic of LGBTQ+ rights, with the latter vehemently opposing proposals to expand sexual minorities' rights. This autocratic resistance is rooted in fears of empowered minorities challenging the status quo and the perceived threat of SOGI rights as a gateway to broader liberal values. By leveraging cultural anxieties and joining forces with other nondemocratic regimes, autocracies exploit traditional values to resist the expansion of international liberal norms. The United Nations must adopt policy recommendations aimed at countering opposition to SOGI rights by emphasizing the universality of human rights, combating cultural relativism, and reframing the national sovereignty argument to garner broader support for SOGI rights.

When blame avoidance meets transparency: local governments’ bandwagon strategy in environmental information disclosure in China

ABSTRACT Despite the ample literature on government transparency, our knowledge about local governments’ strategic responses to transparency mandates, especially those in non-democratic regimes, is limited. This study sets out to fill this gap by investigating local governments’ strategic behaviours in implementing environmental information disclosure (EID), a specific form of government transparency, in the context of China. We assert that local governments in China are largely steered by the motivation of blame avoidance (BA) in EID and tend to adopt the bandwagon strategy, a specific form of anticipatory BA strategy. Moreover, having patronage ties with political superiors weakens local governments’ tendency to engage in the bandwagon strategy. Using city-level governments as the unit of analysis, we apply spatial econometric models in various specifications and find strong evidence that substantiates our arguments.

Examining the relationship between women’s descriptive political representation and women’s possibility to participate in civil society across regime types

ABSTRACT This study examines the link between women’s representation in national parliaments and their possibility to participate in civil society. Utilizing panel data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset, covering 1975–2019, we investigate how the presence of women in parliaments influences the possibility for women to participate in civil society, especially in non-liberal democratic settings. The results indicate a positive association post-1990, coinciding with an international emphasis on civil society and a rise in women’s parliamentary representation in both liberal democracies and autocratic regimes. The study however highlights that in hybrid and autocratic regimes, increased female representation can also be used to project a gender-equal image without genuine democratization intentions. These findings suggest a correlation between the increase in women in parliaments and greater opportunities for their participation in civil society, but do not imply that the results reflect processes towards democracy. The findings contribute to understanding women’s possibilities in non-democratic regimes and underscores the need for further qualitative analysis to fully grasp the implications of these trends.

Authoritarian legality with Chinese characteristics

ABSTRACT In recent years, the concept of authoritarianism has risen to prominence in the community of legal scholars studying non-democratic regimes. China’s legality is also described as authoritarian. However, what does it mean to label China as having a system of authoritarian law? The concept of authoritarianism, and by extension, authoritarian legality, is yet underexamined. This article discusses how China, as a single-party state, differs from other authoritarian regimes in developing its own brand of authoritarian legality that I describe as legal gradationalism. China's authoritarian legality is characterized by a rejection of judicial independence and the mixing of law and quasi-law instruments. Drawing from Shucheng Wang's Law as an Instrument, I propose that a gradationalist approach to Chinese legality allows us to more fully understand the behaviour of Chinese courts and the intriguing dynamics between the Supreme People's Court (SPC) and the local courts.

Microfoundations of domestic audience costs in nondemocratic regimes: Experimental evidence from Putin’s Russia

Do leaders in nondemocratic regimes face public backlash when they threaten to use military force and back down? Whether citizens disapprove of empty threats is central to studying the domestic ‘audience costs’ in international crisis bargaining, but there is little experimental evidence of this phenomenon from autocracies. In this research article, I present the results of an original survey experiment investigating the microfoundations of domestic audience costs in the Russian Federation. My findings showed that even in Putin’s Russia, the citizens expressed attitudes in line with the audience costs theory. However, I also demonstrate that the effect of audience costs treatments was significantly stronger for the opponents of the current Russian leadership than for the supporters. The results of this study represent an important contribution to the existing literature by providing micro-level empirical evidence from a personalist nondemocratic regime.

Domestic Intelligence in Nondemocratic Regimes

Domestic Intelligence in Nondemocratic Regimes

Policy convergence in authoritarian regimes: A comparative analysis of welfare state trajectories in post‐Soviet countries

AbstractDo authoritarian regimes adopt similar or equal policies? Despite the large literature on policy convergence in democracies, we know little about whether and to what extent authoritarian regimes follow analogous paths. This article argues that similar policy legacy, political and institutional context, and international influences lead to policy convergence among nondemocratic regimes. Analyzing welfare state trajectories in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, the empirical analysis finds that the welfare state in the three post‐Soviet countries has converged at the level of social spending and the source of welfare financing, while divergence persists in disaggregated levels of social spending; configuration of key welfare programs, particularly in old‐age pensions and unemployment; and the extent of welfare state reforms. Overall, the findings provide important insights into the determinants of policy convergence in nondemocratic regimes and yield critical implications for future research on the welfare state's trajectory in former Soviet countries.

The Relationship Between Understanding of Democracy and Political Participation in Russia Under Putin’s Non-democratic Regime

The Relationship Between Understanding of Democracy and Political Participation in Russia Under Putin’s Non-democratic Regime