Noncompensatory Strategies Research Articles

Modeling non-compensatory strategies on path choices in a complex urban rail transit network considering characteristics of transfer passengers and trips

The path choice behavior of passengers is highly affected by transfer across different lines in a complex urban rail transit network that provides passengers with multiple path alternatives. Hence, the design of a transfer station in terms of its layout and transfer paths is gaining impact on passengers’ path choices in an expanding urban rail transit network. A comprehensive understanding of passenger behavior is essential for transportation planning and management to better design transfer stations and network operations. A questionnaire survey is conducted for passengers’ path choices and perception of transfer stations. Based on the collected data, this study develops a joint path choice model that combines Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) and Constrained Multinomial Logit Model (CMNL) to capture both compensatory and non-compensatory behavior, especially the latter one, which has not been fully explored in the current literature. Further, a membership model is constructed to analyze the heterogeneity of passengers’ non-compensatory behavior on transfer walking time. Four behavioral segments are identified in regard to passenger and trip characteristics. The estimation results show that the proposed model outperforms the general MNL model and allows a more convincing explanation of urban rail transit passenger behavior. Several research findings are derived, including that transfer walking time is more negatively perceived by passengers without non-compensatory behavior. Moreover, in-vehicle travel time is likely to be a minor consideration for passengers with non-compensatory behavior. The proposed model and framework enable urban rail transit operators and planners to retrieve more precise prediction of passenger flows and enhance service quality.

A New Look at Unconscious Thought Theory: Elicitation of Dynamically Varying Strategies

Unconscious thought theory (UTT) suggests that people apply compensatory strategy (weighting) in unconscious thought (UT) in complex decisions (e.g., multiple alternatives and attributes) (Dijksterhuis & Nordgren, 2006; Dijksterhuis & Strick, 2016). However, some researchers have reported different findings of the strategies elicit during UT. Payne et al. (2008) indicated that people relied on compensatory strategy (Dawes) in UT, but others argued that people use a noncompensatory (lexicographic) strategy instead (Huizenga, Wetzel, Ravenzwaaij, & Wagenmakers, 2012). Thus, these empirical studies have shown mixed results. In this article, our study aims to replicate the unconscious thought effect (UTE) and reconcile the controversy by introducing the prominence effect. To clarify the ostensible controversy, three studies involving 800 participants were conducted. The results replicated the UTE and suggested that weighting was more widely elicited than Dawes in UT when the importance of alternatives’ attributes that were not identical and combinations that were extreme. In addition, the controversy between weighting and lexicographic strategies stemmed from the varying strategies elicited by the degree of difference (e.g., decisive versus nondecisive) between primary and other dimensions of the alternatives. In a nondecisive situation, UT tends to elicit a weighting strategy; conversely, it tends to elicit a lexicographic strategy.

Strategy selection in decisions from givens: Deciding at a glance?

People deciding between alternatives have at their disposal a toolbox containing both compensatory strategies, which take into account all available attributes of those alternatives, and noncompensatory strategies, which consider only some of the attributes. It is commonly assumed that noncompensatory strategies play only a minor role in decisions from givens, where attribute information is openly presented, because all attributes can be processed automatically “at a glance.” Based on a literature review, however, I establish that previous studies on strategy selection in decisions from givens have yielded highly heterogeneous findings, including evidence of widespread use of noncompensatory strategies. Drawing on insights from visual attention research on subitizing, I argue that this heterogeneity might be due to differences across studies in the number of attributes and in whether the same or different symbols are used to represent high/low attribute values across attributes. I tested the impact of these factors in two experiments with decisions from givens in which both the number of attributes shown for each alternative and the coding of attribute values was manipulated. An analysis of participants’ strategy use with a Bayesian multimethod approach (taking into account both decisions and response-time patterns) showed that a noncompensatory strategy was more frequently selected in conditions with a higher number of attributes; the type of attribute coding scheme did not affect strategy selection. Using a compensatory strategy in the conditions with eight (vs. four) attributes was associated with rather long response times and a high rate of strategy execution errors. The results suggest that decisions from givens can incur cognitive costs that prohibit reliance on automatic compensatory decision making and that can favor the adaptive selection of a noncompensatory strategy.

Machine learning strategy identification: A paradigm to uncover decision strategies with high fidelity.

We propose a novel approach, which we call machine learning strategy identification (MLSI), to uncovering hidden decision strategies. In this approach, we first train machine learning models on choice and process data of one set of participants who are instructed to use particular strategies, and then use the trained models to identify the strategies employed by a new set of participants. Unlike most modeling approaches that need many trials to identify a participant's strategy, MLSI can distinguish strategies on a trial-by-trial basis. We examined MLSI's performance in three experiments. In Experiment I, we taught participants three different strategies in a paired-comparison decision task. The best machine learning model identified the strategies used by participants with an accuracy rate above 90%. In Experiment II, we compared MLSI with the multiple-measure maximum likelihood (MM-ML) method that is also capable of integrating multiple types of data in strategy identification, and found that MLSI had higher identification accuracy than MM-ML. In Experiment III, we provided feedback to participants who made decisions freely in a task environment that favors the non-compensatory strategy take-the-best. The trial-by-trial results of MLSI show that during the course of the experiment, most participants explored a range of strategies at the beginning, but eventually learned to use take-the-best. Overall, the results of our study demonstrate that MLSI can identify hidden strategies on a trial-by-trial basis and with a high level of accuracy that rivals the performance of other methods that require multiple trials for strategy identification.

Understanding Preferences for Mobility-on-Demand Services Through a Context Aware Survey and Non-Compensatory Strategy

Understanding Preferences for Mobility-on-Demand Services Through a Context Aware Survey and Non-Compensatory Strategy

Modeling Non-Compensatory Strategies on Path Choice Decisions in a Complex Metro Network Considering Characteristics of Transfer Passengers and Trips

Modeling Non-Compensatory Strategies on Path Choice Decisions in a Complex Metro Network Considering Characteristics of Transfer Passengers and Trips

Compatibility effects in the prescriptive application of psychological heuristics: Inhibition, Integration and Selection

Recent studies have proposed the use of “fast and frugal” strategies as viable alternatives to support decision-processes in cases where time or other operational constraints preclude the application of standard decision-analytic methods. While a growing body of evidence shows that such procedures can be highly accurate, limited research has evaluated how well decision-makers can execute the prescriptive recommendations of aids based on such strategies in practice. Drawing on the behavioural, neuropsychological and decision-analytic literatures, we propose that an alignment between individual, model and task features will influence the effectiveness with which decision-makers can execute strategies that draw on prescriptive psychological heuristics – “fast and frugal” or otherwise. Our findings suggest that strategy execution is highly sensitive to task characteristics however, the effects of the number of alternatives and attributes on individuals’ ability to deploy a given strategy, differ in magnitude and direction depending on which decision-strategy is prescribed. A more compensatory decision-style positively affected overall task performance. Subjects’ ability to regulate inhibitory control was found to positively affect non-compensatory strategy execution, while having no discernible bearing on comparable compensatory tasks. Our findings reinforce that rather than an aspect of the prescriptive model, synergies between individual, model and task features are more instrumental in driving task performance in aided MCDM contexts. We discuss these findings in light of calls from OR scholars for the development of decision-aids that draw on prescriptive “fast and frugal” principles.

Distinguishing three effects of time pressure on risk taking: Choice consistency, risk preference, and strategy selection

AbstractQuick decision making under risk is ubiquitous in modern times, yet its consequences are not fully understood. Time pressure might change people's risk preferences, lead to less consistent choices, or change people's decision strategy. With the present work, we make the novel contribution of testing all hypotheses against each other in a unifying hierarchical Bayesian model. In two studies, participants decided repeatedly between two risky gambles either with or without high time pressure. We found a significant increase in risky choices under time pressure. With modeling, we show that time pressure decreased choice consistency but did not systematically affect people's risk preferences. In addition, the number of participants using simple, noncompensatory strategies increased slightly under time pressure. Finally, participants did not systematically choose easier gambles more often under time pressure. Thus, a reliable analysis of the effect of time pressure on preferential choice requires a model framework that allows for the distinction between the various effects time pressure can have.

How Self-confidence Moderates the Effect of Two-sided Messages on Purchase Intention

This article seeks to clarify how two-sided messages work by explaining their causal effects on purchase intention moderated by the self-confidence of individuals. Three studies were performed. Study 1 measured individuals’ levels of self-confidence and their purchase intentions in front of one- or two-sided messages. Studies 2 and 3 manipulated individuals’ levels of self-confidence and analysed the strategies used to evaluate alternatives in cognitive decision-making. Both studies elaborated on the underlying mechanisms by which low (study 2) and high (study 3) self-confident individuals process two-sided messages, explaining the results of study 1. Self-confidence is a moderator variable for the effect of two-sided messages on purchase intention. When an individual’s self-confidence level is high (low), exposure to a two-sided message will increase (reduce) purchase intentions compared to exposure to a one-sided message. Low self-confident individuals apply a non-compensatory strategy to evaluate the offer, whereas high self-confident individuals apply a compensatory strategy to evaluate the offer. The findings suggest a communication strategy oriented to inform and increase consumers’ self-confidence. The findings contribute to a more detailed and refined knowledge of the underlying mechanisms by which two-sided messages are processed.

Determinants of consumers’ choices in hotel online searches: A comparison of consideration and booking stages

Using a stated choice experiment, this study uncovers how hotel review- and price-related attributes affect consumers’ formation of consideration sets and hotel bookings based on online search results alongside a two-stage model of consideration and choice. Empirical findings indicate that consumers’ evaluations of certain attributes vary across these stages. During the consideration stage, the listed hotel price, promotional discount, overall rating, review volume, and booking popularity are significant attributes for prospective guests, whereas price disparities across websites are not. Insignificant interaction effects among these determinants imply that in this stage, consumers employ fast-frugal heuristics and a noncompensatory strategy. During the booking stage, listed price, promotional discount, overall rating, and review volume inform consumers’ booking decisions. Furthermore, the interaction effects point to consumers’ adoption of a compensatory strategy in making a final booking decision. Finally, this study concludes with implications for hotel pricing and system optimization of online platforms.

The decision paradoxes motivating Prospect Theory: The prevalence of the paradoxes increases with numerical ability

AbstractProspect Theory (PT: Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) of risky decision making is based on psychological phenomena (paradoxes) that motivate assumptions about how people react to gains and losses, and how they weight outcomes with probabilities. Recent studies suggest that people’s numeracy affect their decision making. We therefore conducted a large-scale conceptual replication of the seminal study by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), where we targeted participants with larger variability in numeracy. Because people low in numeracy may be more dependent on anchors in the form of other judgments we also manipulated design type (within-subject design, vs. single-stimuli design, where participants assess only one problem). The results from about 1,800 participants showed that design type had no effect on the modal choices. The rate of replication of the paradoxes in Kahneman and Tversky was poor andpositivelyrelated to the participants’ numeracy. The Probabilistic Insurance Effect was observed at all levels of numeracy. The Reflection Effects were not fully replicated at any numeracy level. The Certainty and Isolation Effects explained by nonlinear probability weighting were replicated only at high numeracy. No participant exhibited all 9 paradoxes and more than 50% of the participants exhibited at most three of the 9 paradoxes. The choices by the participants with low numeracy were consistent with a shift towards a cautionary non-compensatory strategy of minimizing the risk of receiving the worst possible outcome. We discuss the implications for the psychological assumptions of PT.

Poliheuristic Theory and Germany’s (Non-)Participation in Multinational Military Interventions. The Non-compensatory Principle, Coalition Politics and Political Survival

This article employs the poliheuristic theory of decision-making (PHT) to analyse German decisions to participate in, or abstain from, multinational military operations. PHT represents one of the leading theoretical efforts at bridging the cognitive-rationalist divide in foreign policy analysis. The theory posits a two-stage model of foreign policy-making: in the first stage, actors rely on a non-compensatory strategy as a cognitive shortcut to eliminate unacceptable alternatives and to reduce the choice set. In the second stage, actors switch to a compensatory mode of information-processing and select the alternative which maximises expected utility. While there is broad agreement that the non-compensatory dimension at the first stage of PHT concerns the domestic repercussions of foreign policy, it is less clear how this ‘domestic politics’ dimension should be operationalised. This article contributes to this debate by specifying the operationalisation of the non-compenstaory principle in the context of coalition foreign policy making in parliamentary democracies. Specifically, it suggests that the non-compensatory dimension in coalition foreign policy consists of the expected impact of foreign policy on coalition survival. Empirically, the article argues that PHT sheds important new light on arguably some of the most controversial military deployment decisions (Democratic Republic of Congo, Lebanon, Libya) of post-unification Germany.

Self–other differences in multiattribute decision making: Compensatory versus noncompensatory decision strategies

AbstractWhen making decisions where options involve multiple attributes, a person can choose to use a compensatory, utility maximizing strategy, which involves consideration and integration of all available attributes. Alternatively, a person can choose a noncompensatory strategy that extracts only the most important and reliable attributes. The present research examined whether other‐oriented decisions would involve greater reliance on a noncompensatory, lexicographic decision strategy than self‐oriented decisions. In three studies (Mturk workers and college students), the difference in other‐oriented versus self‐oriented decisions in a medical decision context was explained by a subsample of participants that chose the death minimizing operation on all 10 decisions (Study 1) and a subsample of participants who self‐reported that they used a strategy that minimized the chance of death on every decision (i.e., a lexicographic mortality heuristic; Study 2). In Study 2, tests of mediation found that self‐reported use of the mortality heuristic completely accounted for the self–other effect on decisions. In Study 3, participants were more likely to report prospectively that they would adopt the mortality heuristic when making decisions for others than for themselves, suggesting that participants were not mistakenly inferring a lexicographic decision strategy from their past behavior. The results suggest that self–other effects in multiattribute choice involve differential use of compensatory versus noncompensatory decision strategies and that beyond this group difference, individual differences in the use of these strategies also exist within self‐oriented and other‐oriented decisions.

The effect of mood on integration of information in a multi-attribute decision task

The exact effect of different moods on choosing strategies in multi-attribute decision tasks is yet unknown since previous work has found apparently contradicting results. Furthermore, different theoretical accounts lead to opposite expectations. While the “mood-as-information” theory states that a positive mood leads to heuristic processing of information and application of non-compensatory strategies, the “broaden-and-build” theory expects more non-compensatory decision-making in a negative mood. To test the predictions of those two theories, we conducted two experimental studies, in which both the mood and the type of information search were manipulated. The results rather support “mood-as-information” theory, so participants in the positive mood made non-compensatory choices more often than participants in the negative mood. The effect was only present in the open information board, where the information was presented simultaneously, but not in the closed Mouselab, where the information had to be searched in a sequential manner.

New Paradigms for the Old Question: Challenging the Expectation Rule Held by Risky Decision-Making Theories

In risky decision making, whether decision makers follow an expectation rule as hypothesised by mainstream theories is a compelling question. To tackle this question and enrich our knowledge of the underlying mechanism of risky decision making, we developed a series of new experimental paradigms that directly examined the computation processes to systematically investigate the process of risky decision making and explore the boundary condition of expectation rule over the course of a decade. In this article, we introduce these methods and review behavioural, eye-tracking, event-related potential, and functional magnetic resonance imaging studies that employed these methods. Results of these studies consistently showed that decision makers in the single-application condition did not perform the weighting and summing process assumed by the expectation rule. Moreover, decision makers were inclined to adopt a non-compensatory strategy, such as a heuristic one, in risky decision making. Furthermore, results indicated that the expectation rule was only applicable for conditions that involved decisions applied to numerous events (multiple applications) or to people (everyone). The findings indicated that using an index based on expected value to prescribe human risk preferences appears to be an artificial or false index of risk preference, and emphasised a new methodological direction for risky decision-making research.

Neural Mechanisms Underlying Compensatory and Noncompensatory Strategies in Risky Choice

Individuals may differ systematically in their applied decision strategies, which has critical implications for decision neuroscience but is yet scarcely studied. Our study's main focus was therefore to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying compensatory versus noncompensatory strategies in risky choice. Here, we compared people using a compensatory expected value maximization with people using a simplified noncompensatory loss-minimizing choice strategy. To this end, we used a two-choice paradigm including a set of "simple" items (e.g., simple condition), in which one option was superior on all attributes, and a set of "conflict" items, in which one option was superior on one attribute but inferior on other attributes. A binomial mixture analysis of the decisions elicited by these items differentiated between decision-makers using either a compensatory or a noncompensatory strategy. Behavioral differences were particularly pronounced in the conflict condition, and these were paralleled by neural results. That is, we expected compensatory decision-makers to use an integrated value comparison during choice in the conflict condition. Accordingly, the compensatory group tracked the difference in expected value between choice options reflected in neural activation in the parietal cortex. Furthermore, we expected noncompensatory, compared with compensatory, decision-makers to experience increased conflict when attributes provided conflicting information. Accordingly, the noncompensatory group showed greater dorsomedial PFC activation only in the conflict condition. These pronounced behavioral and neural differences indicate the need for decision neuroscience to account for individual differences in risky choice strategies and to broaden its scope to noncompensatory risky choice strategies.

Reconciling Compensatory and Noncompensatory Strategies of Cue Weighting: A Causal Model Approach

AbstractWhen forming a judgment about any unknown item, people must draw inferences from information that is already known. This paper examines causal relationships between cues as a relevant factor influencing how people determine the amount of weight to place on each piece of available evidence. We propose that people draw from their beliefs about specific causal relationships between cues when determining how much weight to place on those cues, and that understanding this process can help reconcile differences between predictions of compensatory and lexicographic heuristic strategies. As causal relationships change, different cues become more or less important. Across three experiments, we find support for the use of causal models in determining cue weights, but leave open the possibility that they work in concert with other strategies as well. We conclude by discussing relative strengths and weaknesses of the causal model approach relative to existing models, and suggest areas for future research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The decision task complexity and information acquisition strategies in GIS-MCDA

This paper addresses the research question of how does the complexity of a decision task affect information acquisition strategies used by decision-makers in a GIS-based multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA)? It reports the results of an experimental study that investigated the effect of task complexity (information load) on information acquisition strategies in the use of a multicriteria spatial decision support system (MC-SDSS). The experiment involved the use of the MC-SDSS for online parking site selection (ranking) in District # 22 of Tehran, Iran at four levels of complexity. The complexity of the site selection task was manipulated in terms of the number of: (1) decision alternatives available to decision-makers and (2) the evaluation criteria (attributes) used to describe the alternatives. At each level of task complexity, the site selection process was carried out in two GIS-MCDA modes: individual and group (collaborative) modes. The findings demonstrate that: (1) an increase in task complexity tend to result in the use of non-compensatory decision strategies; (2) decision-makers using compensatory strategies spend more time acquiring information from decision tables than maps, and (3) the task complexity has no impact on the interaction between the map and table uses.

Selecting decision strategies: The differential role of affect

Many theories on cognition assume that people adapt their decision strategies depending on the situation they face. To test if and how affect guides the selection of decision strategies, we conducted an online study (N = 166), where different mood states were induced through video clips. Results indicate that mood influenced the use of decision strategies. Negative mood, in particular anger, facilitated the use of non-compensatory strategies, whereas positive mood promoted compensatory decision rules. These results are in line with the idea that positive mood broadens the focus of attention and thus increases the use of compensatory decision strategies that take many pieces of information into account, whereas negative mood narrows the focus of attention and thus fosters non-compensatory strategies that rely on a selective use of information. The results further indicate that gaining a deeper theoretical understanding of the cognitive mechanisms that govern decision processes requires taking emotions into account.

Cognitive integration of recognition information and additional cues in memory-based decisions

AbstractGlöckner and Bröder (2011) have shown that for 77.5% of their participants’ decision making behavior in decisions involving recognition information and explicitly provided additional cues could be better described by weighted-compensatory Parallel Constraint Satisfaction (PCS) Models than by non-compensatory strategies such as recognition heuristic (RH) or Take the Best (TTB). We investigate whether this predominance of PCS models also holds in memory-based decisions in which information retrieval is effortful and cognitively demanding. Decision strategies were analyzed using a maximum-likelihood strategy classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. In contrast to the memory-based-RH hypothesis, results show that also in memory-based decisions for 62% of the participants behavior is best explained by a compensatory PCS model. There is, however, a slight increase in participants classified as users of the non-compensatory strategies RH and TTB (32%) compared to the previous study, mirroring other studies suggesting effects of costly retrieval.