non-Bayesian Inference Research Articles

Bayesian and non-bayesian inference for logistic-exponential distribution using improved adaptive type-II progressively censored data.

Improved adaptive type-II progressive censoring schemes (IAT-II PCS) are increasingly being used to estimate parameters and reliability characteristics of lifetime distributions, leading to more accurate and reliable estimates. The logistic exponential distribution (LED), a flexible distribution with five hazard rate forms, is employed in several fields, including lifetime, financial, and environmental data. This research aims to enhance the accuracy and reliability estimation capabilities for the logistic exponential distribution under IAT-II PCS. By developing novel statistical inference methods, we can better understand the behavior of failure times, allow for more accurate decision-making, and improve the overall reliability of the model. In this research, we consider both classical and Bayesian techniques. The classical technique involves constructing maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters and their asymptotic covariance matrix, followed by estimating the distribution's reliability using survival and hazard functions. The delta approach is used to create estimated confidence intervals for the model parameters. In the Bayesian technique, prior information about the LED parameters is used to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, which is derived using Bayes' theorem. The model's reliability is determined by computing the posterior predictive distribution of the survival or hazard functions. Extensive simulation studies and real-data applications assess the effectiveness of the proposed methods and evaluate their performance against existing methods.

Engineering Applications with Stress-Strength for a New Flexible Extension of Inverse Lomax Model: Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference

In this paper, we suggest a brand new extension of the inverse Lomax distribution for fitting engineering time data. The newly developed distribution, termed the transmuted Topp–Leone inverse Lomax (TTLILo) distribution, is characterized by an additional shape and transmuted parameters. It is critical to notice that the skewness, kurtosis, and tail weights of the distribution are strongly influenced by these additional characteristics of the extra parameters. The TTLILo model is capable of producing right-skewed, J-shaped, uni-modal, and reversed-J-shaped densities. The proposed model’s statistical characteristics, including the moments, entropy values, stochastic ordering, stress-strength model, incomplete moments, and quantile function, are examined. Moreover, characterization based on two truncated moments is offered. Using Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimating techniques, we estimate the distribution parameters of the suggested distribution. The bootstrap procedure, approximation, and Bayesian credibility are the three forms of confidence intervals that have been created. A simulation study is used to assess the efficiency of the estimated parameters. The TTLILo model is then put to the test by being applied to actual engineering datasets, demonstrating that it offers a good match when compared to alternative models. Two applications based on real engineering datasets are taken into consideration: one on the failure times of airplane air conditioning systems and the other on the active repair times of airborne communication transceivers. Also, we consider the problem of estimating the stress-strength parameter R=P(Z2<Z1) with engineering application.

Bayesian and non-Bayesian inference for inverse Weibull model based on jointly type-II hybrid censoring samples with modeling to physics data

In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in the research of cooperative censoring schemes. In this work, we compared the relative benefits of two competing length-of-life products using inverse Weibull lifetime products with a joint type-II hybrid censoring scheme (JHC-Type II). We initially examined the maximum likelihood estimators and their confidence intervals (CIs) for the unknown parameters based on JHC-Type II. Then, under the premise of independent gamma priors, we offer Bayes estimates of the parameters using squared error loss and LINEX loss functions. We used the Markov chain Monte Carlo method to create credible intervals and Bayesian estimates. Based on the parametric bootstrapping techniques known as Boot-p and Boot-t, we create two bootstrapping CIs. In addition, we do a Monte Carlo simulation experiment to track how well the aforementioned approaches work and to determine the corresponding confidence and credible intervals. Finally, to show how the approaches covered in this paper might be used, we consider a real physical dataset.

Bayesian and non-Bayesian inference for a general family of distributions based on simple step-stress life test using TRV model under type II censoring

In this article, we consider the parametric inference, using Type II censored data, based on the tampered random variable (TRV) model for simple step-stress life testing (SSLT). We have taken the members of the Lehmann family of distributions as the baseline lifetimes of the experimental units under normal stress conditions. Based on Type II censored data and a simple SSLT framework, we obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and the Bayes estimators of the model parameters. Further, we obtain asymptotic confidence intervals of the unknown model parameters using the observed Fisher information matrix. Moreover, bootstrap confidence intervals were constructed. The Bayes estimators are computed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method under the squared error loss function and the LINEX loss function. We also construct the highest posterior density (HPD) credible intervals of the unknown model parameters. Extensive simulation studies are performed to investigate the finite sample properties of the proposed estimators. Finally, the proposed methods are illustrated with the analysis of a real data set.

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference for The Generalized Power Akshaya Distribution with Application in Medical

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference for The Generalized Power Akshaya Distribution with Application in Medical

A Novel Discrete Generator with Modeling Engineering, Agricultural and Medical Count and Zero-Inflated Real Data with Bayesian, and Non-Bayesian Inference

This study introduces a unique flexible family of discrete probability distributions for modeling extreme count and zero-inflated count data with different failure rates. Certain significant mathematical properties, such as the cumulant generating function, moment generating function, dispersion index, L-moments, ordinary moments, and central moment are derived. The new failure rate function offers a wide range of flexibility, including “upside down”, “monotonically decreasing”, “bathtub”, “monotonically increasing” and “decreasing-constant failure rate” and “constant”. Moreover, the new probability mass function accommodates many useful shapes including the “right skewed function with no peak”, “symmetric”, “right skewed with one peak” and “left skewed with one peak”. To obtain significant characterization findings, the hazard function and the conditional expectation of certain function of the random variable are both employed. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimate methodologies are considered when estimating, assessing, and comparing inferential efficacy. The Bayesian estimation approach for the squared error loss function is suggested, and it is explained. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation studies are performed using the Metropolis Hastings algorithm and the Gibbs sampler to compare non-Bayesian vs. Bayesian results. Four real-world applications of count data sets are used to evaluate the Bayesian versus non-Bayesian techniques. Four more real count data applications are used to illustrate the significance and versatility of the new discrete class.

Approximate Confidence Distribution Computing

Approximate confidence distribution computing (ACDC) offers a new take on the rapidly developing field of likelihood-free inference from within a frequentist framework. The appeal of this computational method for statistical inference hinges upon the concept of a confidence distribution, a special type of estimator which is defined with respect to the repeated sampling principle. An ACDC method provides frequentist validation for computational inference in problems with unknown or intractable likelihoods. The main theoretical contribution of this work is the identification of a matching condition necessary for frequentist validity of inference from this method. In addition to providing an example of how a modern understanding of confidence distribution theory can be used to connect Bayesian and frequentist inferential paradigms, we present a case to expand the current scope of so-called approximate Bayesian inference to include non-Bayesian inference by targeting a confidence distribution rather than a posterior. The main practical contribution of this work is the development of a data-driven approach to drive ACDC in both Bayesian or frequentist contexts. The ACDC algorithm is data-driven by the selection of a data-dependent proposal function, the structure of which is quite general and adaptable to many settings. We explore three numerical examples that both verify the theoretical arguments in the development of ACDC and suggest instances in which ACDC outperform approximate Bayesian computing methods computationally.

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference for Unit-Exponentiated Half-Logistic Distribution with Data Analysis

Unit distributions are typically used in probability theory and statistics to illustrate useful quantities with values between zero and one. In this paper, we investigated an appropriate transformation to propose the unit-exponentiated half-logistic distribution (UEHLD), which is also beneficial for modelling data on the unit interval. This distribution’s mathematical features are supplied, including moments, probability-weighted moments, incomplete moments, various entropy measures, and stress–strength reliability. Using well-known estimation techniques such as the maximum likelihood, maximum product of spacing, and Bayesian inference, the estimators of the parameters relevant to the proposed distribution were determined. A comprehensive simulation analysis is provided to examine the performance of parameter estimation approaches on finite samples. The proposed distribution was realistically applied to data on economic growth and data on the tensile strength of polyester fibers to provide an explanation. Furthermore, the analysis of COVID-19 data from Britain as a medical statistical dataset is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that the suggested UEHLD yields a better comparison with some new unit distributions, as well as other unbounded distributions.

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference for Weibull Inverted Exponential Model under Progressive First-Failure Censoring Data

In this article, the estimation of the parameters and the reliability and hazard functions for Weibull inverted exponential (WIE) distribution is considered based on progressive first-failure censoring (PFFC) data. For non-Bayesian inference, maximum likelihood (ML) estimators are acquired; meanwhile, their existence is verified. Via asymptotic normality of ML estimators and delta method, the corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) of the parameters and the reliability and hazard functions are constructed. For Bayesian inference, Lindley’s approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are proposed to obain the Bayes estimators and the corresponding credible intervals (CRIs). To this end, both symmetric and asymmetric loss functions are used. A large number of Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to evaluate the efficiency of the developed methods. Eventually, a numerical example is analyzed for illustrative purposes.

Truncated Cauchy Power Weibull-G Class of Distributions: Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference Modelling for COVID-19 and Carbon Fiber Data

The Truncated Cauchy Power Weibull-G class is presented as a new family of distributions. Unique models for this family are presented in this paper. The statistical aspects of the family are explored, including the expansion of the density function, moments, incomplete moments (IMOs), residual life and reversed residual life functions, and entropy. The maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian estimations are developed based on the Type-II censored sample. The properties of Bayes estimators of the parameters are studied under different loss functions (squared error loss function and LINEX loss function). To create Markov-chain Monte Carlo samples from the posterior density, the Metropolis–Hasting technique was used with posterior density. Using non-informative and informative priors, a full simulation technique was carried out. The maximum likelihood estimator was compared to the Bayesian estimators using Monte Carlo simulation. To compare the performances of the suggested estimators, a simulation study was carried out. Real-world data sets, such as strength measured in GPA for single carbon fibers and impregnated 1000-carbon fiber tows, maximum stress per cycle at 31,000 psi, and COVID-19 data were used to demonstrate the relevance and flexibility of the suggested method. The suggested models are then compared to comparable models such as the Marshall–Olkin alpha power exponential, the extended odd Weibull exponential, the Weibull–Rayleigh, the Weibull–Lomax, and the exponential Lomax distributions.

A New Two-Parameter Burr-Hatke Distribution: Properties and Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference with Applications

This article introduces a two-parameter flexible extension of the Burr-Hatke distribution using the inverse-power transformation. The failure rate of the new distribution can be an increasing shape, a decreasing shape, or an upside-down bathtub shape. Some of its mathematical properties are calculated. Ten estimation methods, including classical and Bayesian techniques, are discussed to estimate the model parameters. The Bayes estimators for the unknown parameters, based on the squared error, general entropy, and linear exponential loss functions, are provided. The ranking and behavior of these methods are assessed by simulation results with their partial and overall ranks. Finally, the flexibility of the proposed distribution is illustrated empirically using two real-life datasets. The analyzed data shows that the introduced distribution provides a superior fit than some important competing distributions such as the Weibull, Fréchet, gamma, exponential, inverse log-logistic, inverse weighted Lindley, inverse Pareto, inverse Nakagami-M, and Burr-Hatke distributions.

Bayesian and non-Bayesian inference under adaptive type-II progressive censored sample with exponentiated power Lindley distribution

This paper deals with the statistical inference of the unknown parameters of three-parameter exponentiated power Lindley distribution under adaptive progressive type-II censored samples. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) cannot be expressed explicitly, hence approximate MLEs are conducted using the Newton–Raphson method. Bayesian estimation is studied and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is used for computing the Bayes estimation. For Bayesian estimation, we consider two loss functions, namely: squared error and linear exponential (LINEX) loss functions, furthermore, we perform asymptotic confidence intervals and the credible intervals for the unknown parameters. A comparison between Bayes estimation and the MLE is observed using simulation analysis and we perform an optimally criterion for some suggested censoring schemes by minimizing bias and mean square error for the point estimation of the parameters. Finally, a real data example is used for the illustration of the goodness of fit for this model.

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference for the Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Progressive Type II Censored Sample

In this paper, first we consider the maximum likelihood estimators for two unknown parameters, reliability and hazard functions of the generalized Pareto distribution under progressively Type II censored sample. Next, we discuss the asymptotic confidence intervals for two unknown parameters, reliability and hazard functions by using the delta method. Then, based on the bootstrap algorithm, we obtain another two pairs of approximate confidence intervals. Furthermore, by applying the Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, we derive the Bayesian estimates of the two unknown parameters, reliability and hazard functions under various balanced loss functions and the corresponding confidence intervals. A simulation study was conducted to compare the performances of the proposed estimators. A real dataset analysis was carried out to illustrate the proposed methods.

Bayes-based Non-Bayesian Inference on Finite Populations from Non-representative Samples: A Unified Approach*Based on S. N. Roy Memorial Lecture in the symposium.

Classical inference on finite populations is based on probability samples drawn from the target population with predefined selection probabilities. The target population parameters are either descriptive statistics such as totals or proportions, or parameters of statistical models assumed to hold for the population values. Familiar examples of estimation of models include the estimation of income elasticities from household surveys, comparisons of pupils’ achievements from educational surveys, and the study of causal relationships between risk factors and disease prevalence from health surveys. Models are also routinely used to account for measurement errors and for small area estimation with small samples in at least some of the areas. In practice, the samples selected are often not representative of the finite populations from which they are taken. This is so because the sample selection probabilities might be correlated with the model target values, known as informative sampling, or that observations are missing because of not missing at random (NMAR) nonresponse. Sometimes, the samples are subject to mode effects resulting from the use of different answering methods for different sample units, and in more extreme cases, the samples are drawn from sub-populations such as in web-based surveys or in observational studies. The focus of this article is to discuss and illustrate how all these diverse scenarios can be handled in a unified manner by use of Bayes theorem. The use of Bayes theorem allows relating the model holding for the observed data with the model holding for the missing data and the model operating in the target population. I discuss different estimation procedures and review articles that illustrate their performance.

Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference

We propose a coherent inference model that is obtained by distorting the prior density in Bayes’ rule and replacing the likelihood with a so-called pseudo-likelihood. This model includes the existing non-Bayesian inference models as special cases and implies new models of base-rate neglect and conservatism. We prove a sufficient and necessary condition under which the coherent inference model is processing consistent, i.e., implies the same posterior density however the samples are grouped and processed retrospectively. We further show that processing consistency does not imply Bayes’ rule by proving a sufficient and necessary condition under which the coherent inference model can be obtained by applying Bayes’ rule to a false stochastic model.

Structural mapping in statistical word problems: A relational reasoning approach to Bayesian inference.

Presenting natural frequencies facilitates Bayesian inferences relative to using percentages. Nevertheless, many people, including highly educated and skilled reasoners, still fail to provide Bayesian responses to these computationally simple problems. We show that the complexity of relational reasoning (e.g., the structural mapping between the presented and requested relations) can help explain the remaining difficulties. With a non-Bayesian inference that required identical arithmetic but afforded a more direct structural mapping, performance was universally high. Furthermore, reducing the relational demands of the task through questions that directed reasoners to use the presented statistics, as compared with questions that prompted the representation of a second, similar sample, also significantly improved reasoning. Distinct error patterns were also observed between these presented- and similar-sample scenarios, which suggested differences in relational-reasoning strategies. On the other hand, while higher numeracy was associated with better Bayesian reasoning, higher-numerate reasoners were not immune to the relational complexity of the task. Together, these findings validate the relational-reasoning view of Bayesian problem solving and highlight the importance of considering not only the presented task structure, but also the complexity of the structural alignment between the presented and requested relations.

A Processing-Consistent Non-Bayesian Inference Model

We propose a coherent inference model that is obtained by distorting the prior density in Bayes' rule and replacing the likelihood with a so-called pseudo-likelihood. This model includes the existing non-Bayesian inference models as special cases and implies new models of base-rate neglect and conservatism. We prove a sufficient and necessary condition under which the coherent inference model is processing consistent, i.e., implies the same posterior density however the samples are grouped and processed retrospectively. We further show that processing consistency does not imply Bayes' rule by proving a sufficient and necessary condition under which the coherent inference model can be obtained by applying Bayes' rule to a false stochastic model.

Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inference for Survival Data Using Generalised Exponential Distribution

A two-parameter lifetime distribution was introduced by Kundu and Gupta known as generalised exponential distribution. This distribution has been touted to be an alternative to the well-known 2-parameter Weibull and gamma distributions. We seek to determine the parameters and the survival function of this distribution. The survival function determines the probability that a unit under investigation will survive beyond a certain specified time, say, (). We have employed different data sets to estimate the parameters and see how well the distribution can be used to analyse survival data. A comparison is made about the estimators used in this study. Standard errors of the estimators are determined and used for the comparisons. A simulation study is also carried out, and the mean squared errors and absolute bias are obtained for the purpose of comparison.

Inferring Dynamic Genetic Networks with Low Order Independencies

In this paper, we introduce a novel inference method for dynamic genetic networks which makes it possible to face a number of time measurements n that is much smaller than the number of genes p. The approach is based on the concept of a low order conditional dependence graph that we extend here in the case of dynamic Bayesian networks. Most of our results are based on the theory of graphical models associated with the directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). In this way, we define a minimal DAG G which describes exactly the full order conditional dependencies given in the past of the process. Then, to face with the large p and small n estimation case, we propose to approximate DAG G by considering low order conditional independencies. We introduce partial qth order conditional dependence DAGs G(q) and analyze their probabilistic properties. In general, DAGs G(q) differ from DAG G but still reflect relevant dependence facts for sparse networks such as genetic networks. By using this approximation, we set out a non-Bayesian inference method and demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on both simulated and real data analysis. The inference procedure is implemented in the R package 'G1DBN' freely available from the R archive (CRAN).

On some counter-counter-examples about classical inference

This paper deals with theoretical concepts and practical examples, aimed at showing that non-Bayesian inference is liable to result in mistakes or unacceptable conclusions, and proves that they are not justified. Section 2 comments on examples when an objective prior distribution exists, and shows how widely one can be mistaken in using a prior quite distant from the real one. Section 3 comments on two results by Godambe, stressing that – in sampling from finite populations – no flat likelihood exists, while an unbiased linear “estimator” with zero variance does not exist, unless we reach a complete knowledge of the population. Section 4 stresses the fundamental difference between a “probability interval” for a parameter, and a “confidence interval” aimed at making inference on the parameter, thus summarizing all certain facts and constraints able to shrink such an inferential interval. Section 5 explains why we are justified in attaching an inductive meaning to a realized confidence interval. Finally, Section 6 counters some well known counter-examples spread in the Bayesian literature, showing that they are unacceptable from a sound inductive basis.