NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Research Articles

The GFDL Variable‐Resolution Global Chemistry‐Climate Model for Research at the Nexus of US Climate and Air Quality Extremes

AbstractWe present a variable‐resolution global chemistry‐climate model (AM4VR) developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for research at the nexus of US climate and air quality extremes. AM4VR has a horizontal resolution of 13 km over the US, allowing it to resolve urban‐to‐rural chemical regimes, mesoscale convective systems, and land‐surface heterogeneity. With the resolution gradually reducing to 100 km over the Indian Ocean, we achieve multi‐decadal simulations driven by observed sea surface temperatures at 50% of the computational cost for a 25‐km uniform‐resolution grid. In contrast with GFDL's AM4.1 contributing to the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project at 100 km resolution, AM4VR features much improved US climate mean patterns and variability. In particular, AM4VR shows improved representation of: precipitation seasonal‐to‐diurnal cycles and extremes, notably reducing the central US dry‐and‐warm bias; western US snowpack and summer drought, with implications for wildfires; and the North American monsoon, affecting dust storms. AM4VR exhibits excellent representation of winter precipitation, summer drought, and air pollution meteorology in California with complex terrain, enabling skillful prediction of both extreme summer ozone pollution and winter haze events in the Central Valley. AM4VR also provides vast improvements in the process‐level representations of biogenic volatile organic compound emissions, interactive dust emissions from land, and removal of air pollutants by terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight the value of increased model resolution in representing climate–air quality interactions through land‐biosphere feedbacks. AM4VR offers a novel opportunity to study global dimensions to US air quality, especially the role of Earth system feedbacks in a changing climate.

Northern Hemisphere Heat Extremes in a Warmer Climate: More Probable but Less Colocated With Blocking

AbstractThis work uses reanalysis and NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 model, CM4, to investigate the colocation of heat extremes and atmospheric blocking in the current climate and an end of 21st century, extreme‐emissions projection. In the present day, the colocation of heat events and blocking is greatest for the strongest heat events. Block‐heat extreme colocation is found to be less prevalent over ocean than land, exhibiting regional variation throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Over North America, colocation is greatest near the northwestern and northeastern coasts, minimizing near the center; over Eurasia, colocation is most prevalent in northern regions. In an RCP 8.5 projection, the historical 90th percentile temperature decreases to 0–70th percentile, depending on the region. This is primarily driven by mean state warming. Blocking is found to decrease along with the colocation of blocking and heat extremes, suggesting that in some regions, the mechanisms driving heat extremes will change in future climates.

Future changes in boreal winter ENSO teleconnections in a large ensemble of high-resolution climate simulations

The impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are expected to change under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, but the large internal variability of ENSO and its teleconnections makes it challenging to detect such changes in a single realization of nature. In this study, we explore both the internal variability and radiatively forced changes of boreal wintertime ENSO teleconnection patterns through the analysis of 30-member initial condition ensembles of the Seamless System for Prediction and EArth System Research (SPEAR), a coupled global climate model developed by the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. We focus on the projected changes of the large-scale circulation, temperature, and precipitation patterns associated with ENSO for 1951–2100 under moderate and high emissions scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We determine the time of emergence of these changes from the noise of internal climate variability, by determining the time when the amplitude of the ensemble mean change in the running 30-year ENSO composites first exceeds the 1951-1980 composite anomaly amplitude by at least one ensemble standard deviation. Overall, the high internal variability of ENSO teleconnection patterns primarily limits their expected emergence to tropical and subtropical regions before 2100, where some regions experience robust changes in ENSO-related temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height patterns by the middle of the twenty-first century. The earliest expected emergence generally occurs over tropical South America and Southeast Asia, indicating that an enhanced risk of ENSO-related extreme weather in that region could be detected within the next few decades. For signals that are expected to emerge after 2050, both internal climate variability and scenario uncertainty contribute similarly to a time of emergence uncertainty on the order of a few decades. We further explore the diversity of ENSO teleconnections within the SPEAR large ensemble during the historical period, and demonstrate that historical relationships between tropical sea surface temperatures and ENSO teleconnections are skillful predictors of projected changes in the Northern Hemisphere El Niño 500 hPa geopotential height pattern.

Temporally Compound Heat Wave Events and Global Warming: An Emerging Hazard

The temporal structure of heat waves having substantial human impact varies widely, with many featuring a compound structure of hot days interspersed with cooler breaks. In contrast, many heat wave definitions employed by meteorologists include a continuous threshold‐exceedance duration criterion. This study examines the hazard of these diverse sequences of extreme heat in the present, and their change with global warming. We define compound heat waves to include those periods with additional hot days following short breaks in heat wave duration. We apply these definitions to analyze daily temperature data from observations, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory global climate model simulations of the past and projected climate, and synthetically generated time series. We demonstrate that compound heat waves will constitute a greater proportion of heat wave hazard as the climate warms and suggest an explanation for this phenomenon. This result implies that in order to limit heat‐related mortality and morbidity with global warming, there is a need to consider added vulnerability caused by the compounding of heat waves.

Robust Responses of the Sahelian Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming

How the globally uniform component of sea surface temperature (SST) warming influences rainfall in the African Sahel remains insufficiently studied, despite mean SST warming being among the most robustly simulated and theoretically grounded features of anthropogenic climate change. A prior study using the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2.1 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) demonstrated that uniform SST warming strengthens the prevailing northerly advection of dry Saharan air into the Sahel. The present study uses uniform SST warming simulations performed with 7 GFDL and 10 CMIP5 AGCMs to assess the robustness of this drying mechanism across models and uses observations to assess the physical credibility of the severe drying response in AM2.1. In all 17 AGCMs, mean SST warming enhances the free-tropospheric meridional moisture gradient spanning the Sahel and with it the Saharan dry-air advection. Energetically, this is partially balanced by anomalous subsidence, yielding decreased precipitation in 14 of the 17 models. Anomalous subsidence and precipitation are tightly linked across the GFDL models but not the CMIP5 models, precluding the use of this relationship as the start of a causal chain ending in an emergent observational constraint. For AM2.1, cloud–rainfall covariances generate radiative feedbacks on drying through the subsidence mechanism and through surface hydrology that are excessive compared to observations at the interannual time scale. These feedbacks also act in the equilibrium response to uniform warming, calling into question the Sahel’s severe drying response to warming in all coupled models using AM2.1.

Connecting regional aerosol emissions reductions to local and remote precipitation responses

Abstract. The unintended climatic implications of aerosol and precursor emission reductions implemented to protect public health are poorly understood. We investigate the precipitation response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry–climate models: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model 3 (GFDL-CM3), NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1), and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2 (GISS-E2). Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160–240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the significance of precipitation responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. Global and regional precipitation mostly increases when we reduce regional aerosol emissions in the models, with the strongest responses occurring for sulfur dioxide emissions reductions from Europe and the United States. Precipitation responses to aerosol emissions reductions are largest in the tropics and project onto the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Regressing precipitation onto an Indo-Pacific zonal sea level pressure gradient index (a proxy for ENSO) indicates that the ENSO component of the precipitation response to regional aerosol removal can be as large as 20 % of the total simulated response. Precipitation increases in the Sahel in response to aerosol reductions in remote regions because an anomalous interhemispheric temperature gradient alters the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This mechanism holds across multiple aerosol reduction simulations and models.

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 2. Model Description, Sensitivity Studies, and Tuning Strategies

AbstractIn Part 2 of this two‐part paper, documentation is provided of key aspects of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode has been provided in Part 1. Part 2 provides documentation of key components and some sensitivities to choices of model formulation and values of parameters, highlighting the convection parameterization and orographic gravity wave drag. The approach taken to tune the model's clouds to observations is a particular focal point. Care is taken to describe the extent to which aerosol effective forcing and Cess sensitivity have been tuned through the model development process, both of which are relevant to the ability of the model to simulate the evolution of temperatures over the last century when coupled to an ocean model.

The GFDL Global Atmosphere and Land Model AM4.0/LM4.0: 1. Simulation Characteristics With Prescribed SSTs

AbstractIn this two‐part paper, a description is provided of a version of the AM4.0/LM4.0 atmosphere/land model that will serve as a base for a new set of climate and Earth system models (CM4 and ESM4) under development at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This version, with roughly 100 km horizontal resolution and 33 levels in the vertical, contains an aerosol model that generates aerosol fields from emissions and a “light” chemistry mechanism designed to support the aerosol model but with prescribed ozone. In Part 1, the quality of the simulation in AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) mode—with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea‐ice distribution—is described and compared with previous GFDL models and with the CMIP5 archive of AMIP simulations. The model's Cess sensitivity (response in the top‐of‐atmosphere radiative flux to uniform warming of SSTs) and effective radiative forcing are also presented. In Part 2, the model formulation is described more fully and key sensitivities to aspects of the model formulation are discussed, along with the approach to model tuning.

Weddell Polynya Transport Mechanisms in the Abyssal Ocean

AbstractWeddell Polynya transport mechanisms in the deep and abyssal oceans are examined in the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL) coupled climate model CM2G. During an 1820-yr-long integration of the model, polynyas are forced every 29 years in the Weddell Sea via an increase in the diapycnal diffusivity. Composites of the events are used to examine the mechanisms responsible for transporting polynya signals away from the Weddell Sea. Polynya signal transport is governed by two dynamical mechanisms that act on different time scales and spread at different rates. Large-scale waves, such as Kelvin and planetary and topographic Rossby waves, propagate the polynya signal rapidly, on interannual-to-decadal time scales, while advection transports the signal more slowly, on decadal-to-centennial time scales. Despite their different spreading rates, these mechanisms can act contemporaneously, and it is often their combined effect that governs the property changes in the global deep and abyssal oceans. Both waves and advection cause temperature changes on isobaths. In the deep Atlantic, advection accounts for <15% of the total temperature change in the model, indicating that waves are strongly dominant there. Elsewhere, waves are still the stronger contributor, but advection accounts for 20%–40% of the total temperature change.

A Moist Static Energy Budget–Based Analysis of the Sahel Rainfall Response to Uniform Oceanic Warming

AbstractClimate models generate a wide range of precipitation responses to global warming in the African Sahel, but all that use the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM2.1 model as their atmospheric component dry the region sharply. This study compares the Sahel’s wet season response to uniform 2-K SST warming in AM2.1 using either its default convective parameterization, relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS), or an alternate, the University of Washington (UW) parameterization, using the moist static energy (MSE) budget to diagnose the relevant mechanisms.UW generates a drier, cooler control Sahel climate than does RAS and a modest rainfall increase with SST warming rather than a sharp decrease. Horizontal advection of dry, low-MSE air from the Sahara Desert—a leading-order term in the control MSE budget with either parameterization—is enhanced with oceanic warming, driven by enhanced meridional MSE and moisture gradients spanning the Sahel. With RAS, this occurs throughout the free troposphere and is balanced by anomalous MSE import through anomalous subsidence, which must be especially large in the midtroposphere where the moist static stability is small. With UW, the strengthening of the meridional MSE gradient is mostly confined to the lower troposphere, due in part to comparatively shallow prevailing convection. This necessitates less subsidence, enabling convective and total precipitation to increase with UW, although both large-scale precipitation and precipitation minus evaporation decrease. This broad set of hydrological and energetic responses persists in simulations with SSTs varied over a wide range.

Entrainment of stratospheric air and Asian pollution by the convective boundary layer in the southwestern U.S.

AbstractA series of deep stratospheric intrusions in late May 2013 increased the daily maximum 8 h surface ozone (O3) concentrations to more than 70 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) at rural and urban surface monitors in California and Nevada. This influx of ozone‐rich lower stratospheric air and entrained Asian pollution persisted for more than 5 days and contributed to exceedances of the 2008 8 h national ambient air quality standard of 75 ppbv on 21 and 25 May in Clark County, NV. Exceedances would also have occurred on 22 and 23 May had the new standard of 70 ppbv been in effect. In this paper, we examine this episode using lidar measurements from a high‐elevation site on Angel Peak, NV, and surface measurements from NOAA, the Clark County, Nevada Department of Air Quality, the Environmental Protection Agency Air Quality System, and the Nevada Rural Ozone Initiative. These measurements, together with analyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/North American Regional Reanalysis; NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model; NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service Real‐time Air Quality Modeling System; and FLEXPART models, show that the exceedances followed entrainment of ~20 to 40 ppbv of lower stratospheric ozone mingled with another 0 to 10 ppbv of ozone transported from Asia by the unusually deep convective boundary layers above the Mojave desert. Our analysis suggests that this vigorous mixing can affect both high and low elevations and help explain the springtime ozone maximum in the southwestern U.S.

Was the Cold Eastern Us Winter of 2014 Due to Increased Variability?

CanESM2 Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis-Canada CNRM-CM5 National Centre for Meteorological Research-France CSIRO-BOM0 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation-Australia HADGgem2-CC Met Office Hadley Centre-United Kingdom IPSL-CM5A-LR Institute Pierre Simon Laplace-France IPSL-CM5A-MR Institute Pierre Simon Laplace-France IPSL-CM5B-LR Institute Pierre Simon Laplace-France MIROC5-ESM-CHEM CCSR/NIES/FRCGC-Japan MRI-CGCM3 Meteorological Research Institute-Japan NCC-NorESM1-M Norwegian Climate Centre-Norway GFDL-ESM2G NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-United States GFDL-ESM2M NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-United States This document is a supplement to “Was the Cold Eastern US Winter of 2014 Due to Increased Variablility?,” by Laurie Trenary, Timothy Delsole, Machael K. Tippett, and Brian Doty, (Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96 (12), S15–S19) • DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00138.1

Abyssal Ocean Warming and Salinification after Weddell Polynyas in the GFDL CM2G Coupled Climate Model

AbstractThe role of Weddell Sea polynyas in establishing deep-ocean properties is explored in the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s (GFDL) coupled climate model CM2G. Using statistical composite analysis of over 30 polynya events that occur in a 2000-yr-long preindustrial control run, the temperature, salinity, and water mass changes associated with the composite event are quantified. For the time period following the composite polynya cessation, termed the “recovery,” warming between 0.002° and 0.019°C decade−1 occurs below 4200 m in the Southern Ocean basins. Temperature and salinity changes are strongest in the Southern Ocean and the South Atlantic near the polynya formation region. Comparison of the model results with abyssal temperature observations reveals that the 1970s Weddell Polynya recovery could account for 10% ± 8% of the recent warming in the abyssal Southern Ocean. For individual Southern Ocean basins, this percentage is as little as 6% ± 11% or as much as 34% ± 13%.

Capturing interactions between nitrogen and hydrological cycles under historical climate and land use: Susquehanna watershed analysis with the GFDL land model LM3-TAN

Abstract. We developed a process model LM3-TAN to assess the combined effects of direct human influences and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen (TAN) cycling. The model was developed by expanding NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model LM3V-N of coupled terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (C-N) cycling and including new N cycling processes and inputs such as a soil denitrification, point N sources to streams (i.e., sewage), and stream transport and microbial processes. Because the model integrates ecological, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes, it captures key controls of the transport and fate of N in the vegetation–soil–river system in a comprehensive and consistent framework which is responsive to climatic variations and land-use changes. We applied the model at 1/8° resolution for a study of the Susquehanna River Basin. We simulated with LM3-TAN stream dissolved organic-N, ammonium-N, and nitrate-N loads throughout the river network, and we evaluated the modeled loads for 1986–2005 using data from 16 monitoring stations as well as a reported budget for the entire basin. By accounting for interannual hydrologic variability, the model was able to capture interannual variations of stream N loadings. While the model was calibrated with the stream N loads only at the last downstream Susquehanna River Basin Commission station Marietta (40°02' N, 76°32' W), it captured the N loads well at multiple locations within the basin with different climate regimes, land-use types, and associated N sources and transformations in the sub-basins. Furthermore, the calculated and previously reported N budgets agreed well at the level of the whole Susquehanna watershed. Here we illustrate how point and non-point N sources contributing to the various ecosystems are stored, lost, and exported via the river. Local analysis of six sub-basins showed combined effects of land use and climate on soil denitrification rates, with the highest rates in the Lower Susquehanna Sub-Basin (extensive agriculture; Atlantic coastal climate) and the lowest rates in the West Branch Susquehanna Sub-Basin (mostly forest; Great Lakes and Midwest climate). In the re-growing secondary forests, most of the N from non-point sources was stored in the vegetation and soil, but in the agricultural lands most N inputs were removed by soil denitrification, indicating that anthropogenic N applications could drive substantial increase of N2O emission, an intermediate of the denitrification process.

Climate-induced primary productivity change and fishing impacts on the Central North Pacific ecosystem and Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery

An existing Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model for the Central North Pacific was updated and modified to focus on the area used by the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery. The EwE model was combined with output from a coupled NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory climate and biogeochemical model to investigate the likely ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate-induced primary productivity changes. Four simulations were conducted based on 2 fishing effort and climate scenarios from 2010 to 2100. Modeled small and large phytoplankton biomass decreased by 10 % and 20 % respectively, resulting in a 10 % decline in the total biomass of all higher trophic level groups combined. Climate impacts also affected the Hawaii longline fishery, with a 25–29 % reduction in modeled target species yield. Climate impacts on the ecosystem and the fishery were partially mitigated by a drop in fishing effort. Scenarios with a 50 % reduction in fishing effort partially restored longline target species yield to current levels, and decreased longline non-target species yield. These model results suggest that a further reduction in fishery landings mortality over time than the 2010 level may be necessary to mitigate climate impacts and help sustain yields of commercially preferred fish species targeted by the Hawaii longline fishery through the 21st century.

The GFDL CM3 Coupled Climate Model: Characteristics of the Ocean and Sea Ice Simulations

Abstract This paper documents time mean simulation characteristics from the ocean and sea ice components in a new coupled climate model developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The GFDL Climate Model version 3 (CM3) is formulated with effectively the same ocean and sea ice components as the earlier CM2.1 yet with extensive developments made to the atmosphere and land model components. Both CM2.1 and CM3 show stable mean climate indices, such as large-scale circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There are notable improvements in the CM3 climate simulation relative to CM2.1, including a modified SST bias pattern and reduced biases in the Arctic sea ice cover. The authors anticipate SST differences between CM2.1 and CM3 in lower latitudes through analysis of the atmospheric fluxes at the ocean surface in corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. In contrast, SST changes in the high latitudes are dominated by ocean and sea ice effects absent in AMIP simulations. The ocean interior simulation in CM3 is generally warmer than in CM2.1, which adversely impacts the interior biases.

Simulation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet Stream with GFDL AGCM (AM2.1)

The present study validated the capability of the AM2.1, a model developed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), in reproducing the fundamental features of the East Asian Subtropical West- erly Jet Stream (EASWJ). The main behaviors of the EASWJ are also investigated through the reanalysis of observational NCEP/NCAR data. The mean state of the EASWJ, including its intensity, location, structure, and seasonal evolution is generally well-portrayed in the model. Compared with the observation, the model tends to reproduce a weaker jet center. And, during summer, the simulated jet center is northward-situated. Results also demonstrate the model captures the variability of EASWJ during summer well. The results of the empirical or- thogonal function (EOF) applied on the zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200) over East Asia for both the observation and simulation indicate an inter-decadal shift around the late 1970s. The correlation coefficient between the corre- sponding principle components is as great as 0.42 with significance at the 99% confidence level.

Evaluation of tropical and extratropical Southern Hemisphere African aerosol properties simulated by a climate model

We compare aerosol optical depth (AOD) and single scattering albedo (SSA) simulated by updated configurations of a version of the atmospheric model (AM2) component of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model over Southern Hemisphere Africa with AOD and SSA derived from research aircraft measurements and NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations and with regional AOD from the NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellite. The results of the comparisons suggest that AM2 AOD is biased low by 30–40% in the tropics and 0–20% in the extratropics, while AM2 SSA is biased high by 4–8%. The AM2 SSA bias is higher during the biomass burning season, and the monthly variations in AM2 SSA are poorly correlated with AERONET. On the basis of a comparison of aerosol mass in the models with measurements from southern Africa, and a detailed analysis of aerosol treatment in AM2, we suggest that the low bias in AOD and high bias in SSA are related to an underestimate of carbonaceous aerosol emissions in the biomass burning inventories used by AM2. Increases in organic matter and black carbon emissions by factors of 1.6 and 3.8 over southern Africa improve the biases in AOD and especially SSA. We estimate that the AM2 biases in AOD and SSA imply that the magnitude of annual top of the atmosphere radiative forcing in clear‐sky conditions over southern Africa is overestimated (too negative) by ∼8% while surface radiative forcing is underestimated (not negative enough) by ∼20%.

Differences between observed and a coupled simulation of North Atlantic sea surface currents and temperature

North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) distributions derived from observations and a coupled model from NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, CM2.1, are compared to evaluate the model's ability to simulate recent (1900 to the present) oceanic surface characteristics. The North Atlantic focus will limit our analyses to spatial scales less than gyre, scales usually not addressed in previous model‐observation comparisons. Identifying model differences from observations at these scales will assist modelers in identifying problems to be considered and remedies to be applied. The properties compared are the mean annual SST, standard deviation, amplitude of the annual and semiannual harmonic, decadal meridional movements of the axis of the Gulf Stream, propagation of SST anomalies along the axis of the Gulf Stream, and 100‐year trends in SST records. Because of the dependence of SST on surface currents, observed flow from surface drifters and simulated flow from 15 m fields are also compared. The model simulates the large‐scale properties of all the variables compared. However, there are areas of differences in some variables that can be related to inadequacies in the simulated current fields. For example, the model Gulf Stream (GS) axis after separation from the western boundary is located some 100 km north of the observed axis, which contributes to an area of warmer simulated SSTs. The absence of a slope current in the same region that advects colder water from the Labrador Sea in the observations also contributes to this area of higher model SSTs. The model North Atlantic Current (NAC) is located to the east of the observed NAC contributing to a large area of SST discrepancy. The patterns of the amplitude of the annual harmonic are similar with maximum amplitude off the east coast of northern North America. The semiannual harmonic exhibits relatively large amplitudes (>1°C) north of about 55°N, a signal not found in the observations. In both the model and observations, a region of increased standard deviations encompasses the GS and NAC. The model simulates north‐south migrations of the GS core but at a longer period (20 years) than observed. The model does not simulate the SST anomalies that propagate along the observed GS and NAC. The model captures both the spatial and temporal characteristics of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Both model and observations exhibit a dipole in trends, with positive trends in the subtropical Atlantic and negative trends in the subpolar gyre. The modeled region of negative trends is limited to the western subpolar Atlantic. The observed trends extend farther to the east.

Climate change scenarios for the California region

To investigate possible future climate changes in California, a set of climate change model simulations was selected and evaluated. From the IPCC Fourth Assessment, simulations of twenty-first century climates under a B1 (low emissions) and an A2 (a medium-high emissions) emissions scenarios were evaluated, along with occasional comparisons to the A1fi (high emissions) scenario. The climate models whose simulations were the focus of the present study were from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM1) from NCAR and DOE, and the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 model (GFDL). These emission scenarios and attendant climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a purposely diverse set of examples from among the many plausible climate sequences that might affect California in the next century. Temperatures over California warm significantly during the twenty-first century in each simulation, with end-of-century temperature increases from approximately +1.5°C under the lower emissions B1 scenario in the less responsive PCM1 to +4.5°C in the higher emissions A2 scenario within the more responsive GFDL model. Three of the simulations (all except the B1 scenario in PCM1) exhibit more warming in summer than in winter. In all of the simulations, most precipitation continues to occur in winter. Relatively small (less than ~10%) changes in overall precipitation are projected. The California landscape is complex and requires that model information be parsed out onto finer scales than GCMs presently offer. When downscaled to its mountainous terrain, warming has a profound influence on California snow accumulations, with snow losses that increase with warming. Consequently, snow losses are most severe in projections by the more responsive model in response to the highest emissions.