Terror Nexus Research Articles

Environmental sustainability, terrorism, and military expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel quantile ARDL regression and panel causality

The prevalence of terrorism and military expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is experiencing rapid and significant growth over time. This study investigates the impact of terrorism and military expenditure on environmental sustainability in 35 economies in SSA from 1990 to 2021, utilizing panel quantile autoregressive distributed lag regression and causality analysis techniques to bridge the gap in existing studies on the military expenditure, environmental sustainability, and terrorism nexus. The study's novelty is evident because it assesses the short-term and long-term impacts of military expenditure and other covariates across various quantiles of CO2 emissions. The study achieves this by categorizing SSA nations based on their varying levels of CO2 emissions, specifically low, moderate, and high, an approach that is extremely rare among SSA countries. The study's findings revealed that terrorism and military expenditure have a positive impact on CO2 emissions across the quantiles, implying that these variables contribute to environmental degradation in the region. The study also reveals a bidirectional relationship between CO2 emissions and the selected predictors (terrorism, military expenditure, trade, and economic growth). Thus, the study proposes military strategies and macroeconomic policies that ensure environmental sustainability.

Why would anyone visit a terror-affected place? A case of Turkey

It is both interesting and paradoxical that Turkey is the sixth most visited country in the world despite the increasing terror attacks in its territory and region. This article attempts to shed light on the tourism–terrorism nexus in Turkey. Using monthly data from 1990 to 2017, this study applies the Granger causality test and regression analysis. The findings show that tourists continue to visit Turkey despite the intense terror incidents. Only terrorist attacks in Istanbul and deaths from terror incidents deter tourists from visiting Turkey. When we delve deeply into the question of why tourists visit Turkey despite terror attacks, we figure out that the weak Turkish Lira has an incredibly significant impact on tourist arrivals. It is also worth noting that web searches about the security of Turkey have a significant and positive impact on tourists’ travel decisions. Finally, the findings reveal that the negative impact of the Russian Jet Crisis on tourist arrivals is larger than that of the July 15th Coup Attempt.

Corruption - Terrorism Nexus and its Effect on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries

Corruption - Terrorism Nexus and its Effect on Economic Growth: Evidence from Developing Countries

The Nexus of Terrorism, Electricity Load Shedding, Political Instability and FPI: An Empirical Evidence of Pakistan

The term foreign portfolio investment (FPI) refers buying the money market instruments, bonds or shares in an overseas country for a shorter time frame. The FPI inflows are critical cash flows for Pakistan due to present uncertain economic and political environment. Due to the unstable political environment, electricity load shedding and terrorism; the market risk has increased significantly, therefore, the overseas investors are hesitant to invest for a longer time frame currently, but the government can attract them through FPI. This research aimed to determine the association of terrorism, political instability and electricity load shedding with FPI from 1991 to 2021 through ARDL and ECM models. The findings of the ARDL and ECM Models have shown that short run and long run co-integration does exist between the variables. Moreover, electricity load shedding is affecting portfolio investment during short run as well as long run time frame, whereas, the variable of political instability is affecting portfolio investment in short run only. Furthermore, the variable of terrorism is not affecting portfolio investment in long run or short run.

Macroeconomic Instability and Terrorism Nexus; Empirical Evidence in Case of Pakistan

The current study is an attempt to analyze the association between macroeconomic instability and terrorism in Pakistan over the period of 1970 to 2020. Six important variables are taken as a proxy to measure macroeconomic instability which includes external debt, budget deficit, trade deficit, real effective exchange rate (REER), inflation and unemployment. Results indicate that there exists a long run cointegration relationship between the indictors of macroeconomic instability and terrorism. FMOLS is employed to obtain the estimates and it reveals that budget deficit and external debt is negatively associated with terrorism. It indicates that government expenditures on different project such as infrastructure create economic opportunities, therefore, reduces terrorism. Furthermore, welfare programmes also improve the performance of socioeconomic variables that translates into harmonized environment which lessens violence. The variable of trade deficit, inflation and unemployment has positive impact on terrorism while REER is insignificant. In context of trade deficit, higher imports results in job loss of domestic industries, hence, it hits the vulnerable groups. Therefore, the opportunity cost of life of these groups reduces and it increases the probability to become a part of terrorist activities. Inflation also pushes the vulnerable groups in poverty by reduces the purchasing power and unemployed individuals are also easy target to get involve themselves in acts of aggression. This study also constructs the macroeconomic instability index including the six variables through principal component analysis (PCA). Results of this model show that macroeconomic instability index and GDP has positive effect on terrorism. In case of GDP, the plausible reason could be uneven income distribution that increases terrorist activities. For the policy implications, government need to divert the resources from non-productive to productive uses through the investment in such projects which has direct and indirect impact on the welfare. In this way deprived group will enjoy economic perks and engage themselves in productive activities rather than becoming a helping hand in terrorism.

The Climate Change–Terrorism Nexus: A Critical Literature Review

ABSTRACT A growing number of policymakers around the world have recognized climate change as an escalating security threat and increasingly point to the climate change—terrorism nexus in particular. This critical literature review provides an analysis of the current state of research on the causal and correlative links between climate change, intermediary factors—such as resource scarcity, loss of economic opportunities, and instability—and terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. Moving beyond a review of substantive themes within the existing body of scholarly research examining this topic, this article critically evaluates the theories, assumptions, and methods behind the literature. In doing so, the review identifies noteworthy trends, as well as gaps and shortcomings in the current research. Our review finds that the majority of the literature has observed a positive correlation between climate change and terrorism. More precisely, the current body of research overwhelmingly assesses that climate change indirectly leads to terrorism via its impact on conditions often considered to be drivers of terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. Still, gaps remain in empirically backing up these assertions and examining the relationship between climate change, intermediary factors, and terrorism in more depth. We use our critical review and analysis to guide recommendations for further research into this emerging and timely field of study.

Organized Crime–Terror Nexus: Interrogating the Linkage Between Banditry and Terrorism in Northern Nigeria

This paper examines the phenomenon of crime–terror nexus from the standpoint of the linkage between banditry and Boko Haram insurgency in Northern Nigeria. Using a descriptive analysis predicated on a combination of primary and secondary studies, the paper reveals that both groups have functionally adapted each other’s structures and strategies. While Boko Haram and its splinter groups have occasionally engaged in acts of banditry, there has been mutual co-option by both groups as the exigencies of their operations demand. Nigeria’s drive at mitigating the banditry-terrorism conundrum must proceed with a pragmatic understanding of the gamut and dynamics of their situational nexuses.

“The Octopus”: The Human Trafficking and Terror Nexus of the PKK

“The Octopus”: The Human Trafficking and Terror Nexus of the PKK

Terrorism, Slavery and the Evolution of the ‘Crime–Terror Nexus’

This article argues for a new application of the concept of the ‘crime–terror nexus’ by highlighting the increased prevalence of criminal engagement in modern slavery and human trafficking (MS/HT) by contemporary terrorist groups. Using the Islamic State and Boko Haram as case studies, Luciano Pollichieni and Andrew Mumford explain how such organisations are involved in MS/HT, and explore the economic and operational advantages they generate from involvement in these illegal activities. The authors call for new research in this field and flag the growing links between terrorism and slavery for counterterrorist practitioners.◼

Leader Nationalism, Ethnic Identity, and Terrorist Violence

Whether or not nationalism fuels terrorist violence by ethnic groups is an important yet underexplored research question. This study offers a theoretical argument, empirical analysis and a case study. When political leaders such as presidents and prime ministers use nationalism to shore up legitimacy, they threaten the existence of disfavored ethnic groups. In turn, those groups are more likely to respond with terrorist attacks. The author tests this argument using a sample of 766 ethnic groups across 163 countries from 1970 to 2009. The multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial regression results provide evidence that leader nationalism is a significant driver of ethnic terrorism. The detrimental effect of nationalism remains the same after using a generalized method of moments method to account for possible reverse causality. A case study of Sinhalese nationalist leaders versus Tamil Tigers also supports the nationalism and terrorism nexus.

Rethinking Intersections of Crime and Terrorism: Insights from Political Economies of Violence

AbstractThe post–Cold War environment has ushered in an era of threats from terrorism, organized crime, and their intersections giving rise to the growing literature on the so-called crime–terror nexus. This article takes stock of this literature, assesses its accomplishments and limitations, and considers ways to deepen it conceptually, theoretically, and empirically. To challenge assumptions informing the crime–terror studies and suggest avenues for future research, the article draws on ideas from the scholarship on political economies of violence. These insights are used to probe the (1) non-state actors that form the crime–terror nexus, (2) conditions under which the nexus is likely to emerge, and (3) varied effects of criminal–terrorist intersections. The article emphasizes the ties of criminal and terrorist groups to local politics, society, and economy, and relationships of competition, rather than cooperation, which often characterize these ties. The conditions under which these groups operate cannot be understood without considering the role of the state in criminal–terrorist constellations. The structure of resource economies influences both the preferences of terrorist groups for crime and the consequences of terrorist–criminal convergence, which are also mediated by state participation in crime.

Nexus of Terrorism and Tourism: Empirical evidence from South Asian Countries

Purpose: To investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism, this study analyzed time series data over the period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.
 Design/methodology/approach: The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the short and long-run estimates simultaneously. The study further applied Granger causality to find out the direction of causalities.
 Findings: Utilizing the ARDL model, the result indicates that there is strong negative short and long-run relationship between terrorism and tourism in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The unidirectional causalities from terrorism, per capita GDP, and terrorism intensity towards tourist's receipts have their implication for the country in terms oftourism development.
 Research limitations/implications: The fact that the number of reviews has been used as a proxy is a limitation and adds a provisional character to our results and encourages the replication of our analysis with data on the effective occupation of the accommodation, to which we did not have access to in our case. Similarly, if possible, other smaller Latin American cities could bestudied.
 Research implications: In the perspective of policy implementation, the govemment of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh must take quick actions to control terrorism since it is destructive to the tourism industry as well as in light of its negative effect on economic development of a country. Moreover, the govemment should expand the business and employment opportunities notjust in light of the fact that unemployment is harmful to economic growth yet additionally to spare the economy from terrorism as unemployed people can easily become the puppets of terrorist groups by paying them and to feed their families.
 Originality/value: This study utilized time series data over a period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh) to investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism.

Nexus of Terrorism and Tourism: Empirical evidence from South Asian Countries

Purpose: To investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism, this study analyzed time series data over the period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries including Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach: The study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the short and long-run estimates simultaneously. The study further applied Granger causality to find out the direction of causalities. Findings: Utilizing the ARDL model, the result indicates that there is strong negative short and long-run relationship between terrorism and tourism in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The unidirectional causalities from terrorism, per capita GDP, and terrorism intensity towards tourist's receipts have their implication for the country in terms oftourism development. Research limitations/implications: The fact that the number of reviews has been used as a proxy is a limitation and adds a provisional character to our results and encourages the replication of our analysis with data on the effective occupation of the accommodation, to which we did not have access to in our case. Similarly, if possible, other smaller Latin American cities could bestudied. Research implications: In the perspective of policy implementation, the govemment of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh must take quick actions to control terrorism since it is destructive to the tourism industry as well as in light of its negative effect on economic development of a country. Moreover, the govemment should expand the business and employment opportunities notjust in light of the fact that unemployment is harmful to economic growth yet additionally to spare the economy from terrorism as unemployed people can easily become the puppets of terrorist groups by paying them and to feed their families. Originality/value: This study utilized time series data over a period 1980-2016 for South Asian countries (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh) to investigate the deleterious role ofterrorism towards tourism.

The epidemic–terrorism nexus and how to safeguard Africa against bioterrorism: Lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative?

ABSTRACT Bioterrorism – the manipulation of disease crises by terrorist groups to achieve political aims – is an under-researched threat to Africa. The increasing frequency of epidemics and pandemics such as Ebola and Covid-19, concurrent with the regional increase in terrorism, increases the potential for disease crises to be exploited as political weapons by terrorist groups, either directly or indirectly. This paper produces insights about the intersection of terrorism and disease in Africa through the exploration of terrorism’s interaction with the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), with reference to targeted violence, anti-vaccination rhetoric and anti-West suspicions in Nigeria, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Terrorism is shown to be significantly hindering polio eradication in these states, and it is argued that these actions should be incorporated into an expanded conceptualisation of bioterrorism. Lessons are drawn from the GPEI to augment current understandings of terrorism, counter-terrorism and disease in Africa, with recommendations for future action.

Terrorism, Financial Crisis, and Domestic Investment Nexus in Pakistan

Terrorism, Financial Crisis, and Domestic Investment Nexus in Pakistan

Terrorism and Migration: An Overview

AbstractThis article provides an overview of the literature on the relationship between terrorism and migration. It discusses whether and how (1) migration may be a cause of terrorism, (2) terrorism may influence natives' attitudes towards immigration and their electoral preferences and (3) terrorism may lead to more restrictive migration policies and how these in turn may serve as effective counter-terrorism tools. A review of the empirical literature on the migration–terrorism nexus indicates that (1) there is little evidence that more migration unconditionally leads to more terrorist activity, especially in Western countries, (2) terrorism has electoral and political (but sometimes short-lived) ramifications, for example, as terrorism promotes anti-immigrant resentment and (3) the effectiveness of stricter migration policies in deterring terrorism is rather limited, while terrorist attacks lead to more restrictive migration policies.

Examining the state repression‐terrorism nexus: Dynamic relationships among repressive counterterrorism actions, terrorist targets, and deadly terrorist violence in Israel

Research SummaryThis study assesses the impact of state repressive counterterrorism actions on terrorists’ targeting and lethality of the terrorism landscape in Israel. Using systematic data on government responses to terrorism and an empirical model that addresses reciprocal relationships, we analyze dynamical interactions between types of government repression with attacks against civilian or government targets, and deadly terrorist violence. Contrary to public policy pronouncements of forcefully fighting terrorism to eradicate terrorist threats, our results suggest that repressive counterterrorism actions by the state increase terror and deadly violence. Importantly, the results indicate that these unintended escalatory or backlash effects are dependent on the scope of government repression, the type of terrorist targets, and the lethality of terrorism.Policy ImplicationsOur findings provide insight into particular behaviors and exchanges within the state repression–terrorism nexus that evoke and prolong terrorist violence. Centered on key aspects of terrorist activities involving target choice and deadly violence, our ecological study contributes to the development of a systematic understanding of specific impacts of government policies on terrorism. In all, constructing an empirically rigorous evidence base for terrorism prevention policies and practices is essential for ensuring the protection of human lives and public resources from terrorism.

Not Yet Dead: The Establishment and Regulation of Slavery by the Islamic State

The Islamic State is an organization at the nexus of modern slavery and terrorism. This article provides the first in-depth analysis of how it regulated slavery. With a consideration of gendered approaches, it applies multiple data sources to reveal a three-part assessment of the forms, establishment, and regulation of slavery from 2014 to 2017. Beginning with the August 2014 Sinjar massacre, it reveals the logistics of slavery through an innovative process entitled the Division and Regulation of Enslavement Framework. It concludes with a discussion on the domestic and international aspects of this crime, detailing recommendations for research and policy.

The migration–terrorism nexus: An analysis of German and Italian press coverage of the ‘refugee crisis’

Over the last few years, terrorist attacks in European cities, together with the so-called ‘refugee crisis’, have (re)ignited a debate on whether there is an association between the two issues. Drawing on sociological approaches to risk and uncertainty, I claim that the discursive construction of causal linkages connecting refugees and migrants to terrorist activities is a fundamental passage in the process of social construction of migration as a threat. To identify the terrorism–migration linkages constructed in/through the media, this article examines the coverage of migration issues in two Italian and two German newspapers in 2015 and 2016, combining computer-assisted and qualitative content analysis. My findings reveal, firstly, how and in what circumstances the discourse on the terrorism threat is conflated with the discourse on migration. Then, the in-depth analysis of causal links in the coverage of four main terror attacks in Europe shows the predominance of a chain of causation linking terrorism to new migrants and refugees. Given the limited empirical research informing the debate over the migration–terrorism nexus, this study contributes to a better understanding of the process of social construction of migrants as threat objects.

‘London is a City Built on the Wreckage of Itself’: State Terrorism and Resistance in Chris Cleave’s Incendiary and Mohsin Hamid’s Exit West

The impact of post-‘9/11’ terrorism on how the city of London has been reimagined is significant. In this paper, we will explore two post-‘9/11’ novels, Chris Cleave’s 2005 Incendiary and Mohsin Hamid’s 2017 Exit West, which complicate the tradition of British literature featuring terrorists (Taylor, London's Burning: Pulp Fiction, the Politics of Terrorism and the Destruction of the Capital in British Popular Culture, 1840–2005 (London: Continuum, 2012), 1–2) by reenvisaging London as a nexus of state terrorism. Incendiary, published on the day of the ‘7/7’ bombings, highlights the complexity of political violence through the story of a traumatised woman who loses her son and husband during a terrorist attack in London. Cleave critiques the post ‘9/11’ city by constructing a narrative centred on the Londoners’ response to the terror perpetrated by the government, the police, and media (e.g.: violence against civilians, suspension of civil rights, martial law, and surveillance). Similarly, Hamid’s Exit West depicts London as a place where refugees live in terror, exploited in work camps and subjected to surveillance (through drones and by citizens turned vigilantes) by the British state. This paper aims to interrogate how these texts problematise mainstream representations of sovereign power in London. If state sovereignty is understood as ‘an aspiration that seeks to create itself in the face of internally fragmented, unevenly distributed and unpredictable configurations of political authority that exercise more or less legitimate violence in a territory’ (T. B. Hansen and F. Stepputat (eds.), Sovereign Bodies: Citizens, Migrants and States in the Postcolonial World (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. 2005), 10), literary fiction creates a space suitable for questioning the legitimacy of this aspiration. The state actively produces ‘fear, terror, and violence’, embedding in the construction of cities (D. Gregory, The Colonial Present (Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2004), 4). The London of Cleave’s and Hamid’s novels becomes a site for both projecting terrorism and resisting terror in all its forms. Our interdisciplinary theoretical framework combines postcolonial theory and elements of urban and cultural sociology (S. Graham (ed.), Cities, War, and Terrorism: Towards an Urban Geopolitics (Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2004); S. Graham, Cities Under Siege: The New Military Urbanism (London: Verso, 2011); J. C. Alexander, Performance and Power (Cambridge: Polity, 2011)) with inquiries into the cultural imaginary of terrorism (Frank, The Cultural Imaginary of Terrorism in Public Discourse, Literature, and Film: Narrating Terror (New York, NY: Routledge, 2017), 75.) in post-‘9/11’ literature. We subscribe to the proposition that the ‘only real solution to our current geopolitical crisis’ is asserting the global values that connect the Self with the Other (Gauthier, 9/11 Fiction, Empathy, and Otherness (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2015), 1.) and we argue that Incendiary and Exit West provide a counternarrative to the dominant discourse of terrorism post ‘9/11’, which champions the state’s supreme authority through stereotyping and polarisation. The proposed reading of Cleave’s and Hamid’s novels will show how the city of London, as imagined in literary responses to ‘9/11’, can crystallise a counternarrative of protest by revealing the systemic violence through which sovereign power is performed at the expense of civil populations, particularly minoritised populations through discourses of hate such as Islamophobia and antiimmigrant/refugee rhetoric.