New Zealand Government Research Articles

Mathematical optimization of frost resistant crop production to ensure food supply during a nuclear winter catastrophe

This study aimed to estimate the optimal mix of frost resistant crops and land area needed to provide basic nutrition during various nuclear winter scenarios for New Zealand (NZ), a temperate island nation. It used linear programming to minimize land area required for cropping while producing enough food to achieve dietary energy and protein requirements for the whole population. The potential agricultural impacts of three nuclear winter scenarios on NZ, were sourced from the literature. The optimized combinations of frost resistant crops that were found to feed the entire population were, in descending order: wheat and carrots; sugar beet; oats; onions and carrots; cabbage and barley; canola and cabbage; linseed and parsnip; rye and lupins; swede and field beans; and cauliflower. But in terms of current production levels of these frost resistant crops in NZ, there would be a 26% shortfall for the “war without a nuclear winter” scenario and a 71% shortfall for the severe nuclear winter scenario (150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere with a 61% decline in crop yields). In conclusion, at current production levels, frost resistant food crops could not feed all NZ citizens following a nuclear war. There is a need for the NZ Government to conduct a detailed pre-war analysis on how these shortfalls are best addressed. For example, by: increased pre-war production of these crops and/or post-war scalability; growing enough frost sensitive crops (i.e., in greenhouses or the warmest parts of the country); and/or ensuring continuing production of food derived from livestock fed on frost resistant grasses.

Enhancing an online cognitive behavioural therapy intervention for depression: Harnessing the feedback of sexual and gender minority youth to help improve SPARX.

SPARX is an online cognitive behavioural therapy self-help intervention for adolescent depression provided in serious game format. Since 2014, it has been freely available in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) due to funding from the NZ government. In 2020/21, feedback from sexual and gender minority youth (SGMY) was used to refine and update SPARX. Three online focus groups and follow-up email consultations involved 12 SGMY (16 to 25 years old) in NZ. A general inductive approach was used to analyse data. SGMY had specific needs as well as preferences and four themes were identified: attend to our contextual realities; portrayals of sexual and gender minority people in games; envisaged ideals for serious gaming and appraisals of SPARX. SGMY feedback was used to improve SPARX for this unique population, with the updates launched in October 2021. SGMY are underserved in terms of their mental health needs. Refining or tailoring existing interventions proffers a potential way forward in terms of addressing these needs.

Estimating the economic costs of Indigenous health inequities in New Zealand: a retrospective cohort analysis

ObjectivesDespite significant international interest in the economic impacts of health inequities, few studies have quantified the costs associated with unfair and preventable ethnic/racial health inequities. This Indigenous-led study is the...

Disease-Related Loss to Government Funding: Longitudinal Analysis of Individual-Level Health and Tax Data for an Entire Country

The objective of this longitudinal analysis was to estimate funding loss in terms of tax revenue to the New Zealand (NZ) government from disease and injury among working age adults. Linked national health and tax data sets of the usually resident population between 2006 and 2016 were used to model 40 disease states simultaneously in a fixed-effects regression analysis to estimate population-level tax loss from disease and injury. To estimate tax revenue loss to the NZ government, we modeled a counterfactual scenario where all disease/injury was cause deleted. The estimated tax paid by all 25- to 64-year-olds in the eligible NZ population was $15 773 million (m) per annum (US dollar 2021), or $16 446 m for a counterfactual as though no one had any disease disease-related income loss (a 4.3% or $672.9 m increase in tax revenue per annum). The disease that-if it had no impact on income-generated the greatest impact was mental illness, contributing 34.7% ($233.3 m) of all disease-related tax loss, followed by cardiovascular (14.7%, $99.0 m) and endocrine (10.2%, $68.8 m). Tax revenue gains after deleting all disease/injury increased up to 65 years of age, with the largest contributor occurring among 60- to 64-year-olds ($131.7 m). Varied results were also observed among different ethnicities and differing levels of deprivation. This study finds considerable variation by disease on worker productivity and therefore tax revenue in this high-income country. These findings strengthen the economic and government case for prevention, particularly the prevention of mental health conditions and cardiovascular disease.

“Islamic terrorism” in New Zealand? The John Key Government, Counterterrorism, and the “Islamic terrorism” Narrative

ABSTRACT The presence of the “Islamic terrorism” narrative in New Zealand (NZ) counterterrorism, including its impact on NZ’s response to terrorism, has not been accorded the concern it merits. In the aftermath of the Christchurch Mosque attacks on 15 March 2019, the NZ government, the Royal Commission of Inquiry, and the media unreservedly agreed that NZ’s counterterrorism approach was misguided and erroneous. Central to this erroneous approach was the narrative of “Islamic terrorism” – the subject of this study – which sought to focus NZ’s counterterrorism efforts almost exclusively upon Islamic groups and individuals. The research employs a methodology of discourse analysis to examine how John Key’s National Party government drew on the “Islamic terrorism” narrative in its counterterrorism discourse. It then illustrates how this discourse manifested in NZ’s response to terrorism, both domestically and internationally, including in the introduction of new legislation. The primary purpose of this article is to demonstrate, and subsequently critique, the “Islamic terrorism” narrative as adopted in the Key government’s counterterrorism discourse and response. A major finding of the research is the Key government’s conflation, and at times virtual equalisation, of terrorism with “Islamic terrorism”. The concept of emancipation is proposed as an alternative to NZ’s erroneous counterterrorism approach.

Improving Sustainability of Steel Roofs: Life Cycle Assessment of a Case Study Roof

In New Zealand (NZ), steel roofing is the most common roofing type for residential buildings. However, the environmental impact of steel roofs are not negligible. Steel roofs account for up to 30% of the upfront embodied carbon for a typical NZ house, highlighting the importance of investigating and reducing the environmental impacts of steel roofs in meeting the net-zero carbon goal of the NZ government. There are several research gaps in investigating the impacts of steel roofs, such as the variation in emissions between local and imported steel coil products, the unavailability of life cycle assessment (LCA) data, and additional impacts from ancillary items. Therefore, this study performed an LCA of a case study roof in NZ to investigate these gaps using GaBi Ts software. It was found that the overall impacts from the steel roofs, including the ancillary items, were 12 kg CO2-eq/m2, where the ancillary items accounted for less than 10% of total emissions. The prepainted steel coils manufactured globally had less than 70% emissions when compared to the emissions of locally manufactured prepainted steel coils. In addition, the roll forming processes had an insignificant effect on overall emissions, whereas the transportation of steel coils had a notable impact.

Distributional issues in well-being: a case study of New Zealand

Well-being is now widely accepted as being multidimensional (OECD, 2017). New Zealand (NZ) Treasury mimics this notion and suggests that well-being indicates ‘quality of life’ and ways of facilitating individuals and society achieving a better life (McLeod, 2018). To achieve the goal of a ‘better life for all’, the NZ government has launched the first Well-being Budget worldwide in 2019 (Government of New Zealand, 2019). Still, there are some limitations in their framework. My research aims to address one of them; namely well-being inequality. By constructing a composite well-being index for a country that runs a Well-being Budget, this answers the following questions: i) which domains of well-being are most unequally distributed in NZ? ii) what are the determinants of well-being inequality? and iii) how does well-being inequality compare across gender, ethnicity, age, and geography in NZ? In this presentation, I will explain how Categorial Principal Component Analysis was used to construct NZ’s first multidimensional well-being index. Additionally, I will discuss the current well-being distribution findings. The data used comes from NZ's General Social Survey spanning the period 2014 to 2018 which includes 24,618 individuals across NZ. Both ordinal and nominal variables are included in the well-being index. To measure the inequality in well-being we deconstruct the multidimensional well-being index for various groups to determine the well-being distribution pattern in NZ. The preliminary results indicate that civic engagement and governance, and income explained the most variance; whereas cultural identity and social connection explained the least variance. In addition, females, Māori, immigrants, and those outside of the Auckland region experience greater well-being inequality than their counterparts. These results suggest that policymakers should focus on policies that could increase public trust in the government and institutions, increase employment opportunities, and provide social support for those unable to enter the employment sector as full-time employees.

Analyzing the Climate Change Potential of Residential Steel Buildings in New Zealand and Their Alignment in Meeting the 2050 Paris Agreement Targets

This research undertakes a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to determine the climate change potential of a typical newly built steel detached dwelling in Palmerston North, New Zealand (NZ) and assesses its results concerning the 2 °C and 1.5 °C 2050 Paris Agreement targets. The proposed, upcoming policy and actions of the NZ government relating to its residential building and construction sector, which are set with an overarching aim to allow NZ to progress towards meeting the 2050 Paris Agreement targets, are also discussed in this paper. The results of the LCA demonstrate that the projected stock of steel-framed detached houses significantly exceeds the calculated climate budget and eventual 2050 Paris Agreement targets. For both the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios, the magnitude of exceedance of the climate budget is 5.2 and 7.3 times more than the acceptable limit, correspondingly. These findings suggest that the sector will need to undergo a significant transition in order to fulfil the 2050 Paris Agreement targets. In the meanwhile, the sector’s upcoming policies and regulations must be achievable while progressing toward achieving net-zero carbon emissions.

Teledermatology for suspected skin cancer in New Zealand during the COVID-19 pandemic required in-person follow-up in 28% of cases

To the Editor: The New Zealand (NZ) population has one of the highest incidences of nonmelanoma skin cancer in the world.1 Standard face-to-face (FTF) assessment of skin cancer was abruptly halted in early 2020, when the NZ government announced level 4 restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Educational facilities and businesses closed, and people were instructed to stay home unless accessing essential services. NZ's lockdown imposed strict restrictions by global standards, with only life-preserving health services permitted to proceed in person.

Energy, Sodium, Sugar and Saturated Fat Content of New Zealand Fast-Food Products and Meal Combos in 2020.

This study aimed to benchmark the healthiness of the New Zealand (NZ) fast-food supply in 2020. There are currently no actions or policies in NZ regarding the composition, serving size and labeling of fast food. Data on serving size and nutrient content of products was collected from company websites and in-store visits to 27 fast-food chains. For each fast-food category and type of combo meal, medians and interquartile ranges were calculated for serving size and energy, sodium, total sugar, and saturated fat per serving. Nutrient contents/serving were benchmarked against the United Kingdom (UK) soft drinks levy sugar thresholds and targets for salt for away from home foods, the NZ daily intake guidelines for energy, sodium, and saturated fat, and the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendation for free sugars. Analyses were conducted for the 30.3% (n = 1772) of products with available nutrition information and for 176 meal combos. Most (n = 67; 91.8%) sugar-sweetened drinks would qualify for a UK soft drink industry levy and 47% (n = 1072) of products exceeded the relevant UK sodium target. Half of the meal combos provided at least 50.3% of the daily energy requirements and at least 88.6% of the maximum recommended intake of sodium. Fast-food products and combo meals in NZ contribute far more energy and negative nutrients to recommended daily intake targets than is optimal for good health. The NZ Government should set reformulation targets and serving size guidance to reduce the potential impact of fast- food consumption on the health of New Zealanders.

Gender and ethnic equity in Aotearoa New Zealand's public service before and since Covid‐19: Toward intersectional inclusion?

AbstractSince its bi‐cultural foundation with Te Tiriti o Waitangi (the Treaty of Waitangi, signed in 1840 by Māori, the indigenous Polynesian people of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ), chiefs and representatives of the British Crown), cultural identities have expanded through immigration. While Aotearoa NZ's government seeks to encourage workplace diversity in public service agencies, developments are being disrupted by Covid‐19. Using a typology of equality approaches, this study appraises the “ambition” of equity progress in Aotearoa NZ public service agencies based on content analysis of interviews with sector experts, agency staff and managers. In terms of equity discourses, workplace inequities emerge as more pronounced for Māori and Pasifika (the indigenous peoples of the Pacific), indicating that more “ambitious” equality initiatives, including those which aim for intersectional inclusion, are needed. The study thereby contributes a more nuanced understanding of equity approaches that could meaningfully inform workplace initiatives designed to recognize, value and empower gender diversity. Its relevance for Aotearoa NZ, which has one of the most diverse working‐age populations in the world, is likely to resonate in other countries where workforce diversity is yet to translate into equitable engagement in and experiences of work organizations by all.

New Zealand Government’s budgetary response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Purpose This paper aims to provide a commentary on how well the New Zealand (NZ) Government has used the budget as a tool to tackle the social and economic problems associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The role of public budgeting as a political instrument is also critiqued. Design/methodology/approach An analysis was carried out of relevant documents that included government policy statements, budgets, news articles and website information on the pandemic. Meaningful interpretation of information and reflections helped provide the basis of the commentary. Findings Public budgeting has a prominent role in addressing a major global crisis. Budgets need to quickly respond to the needs of the moment in saving lives and sustaining people’s well-being, businesses and the economy. In a crisis situation, the social, political and economic factors become crucial determinants of budgetary policy measures. Although strong political leadership is required to deliver budgets under unimaginable circumstances, the ideology of the political party in government can be a powerful predictor of fiscal policies. Crisis budgeting will result in mounting budget deficits and public debts that will take many years for future generations to pay back. Practical implications This paper provides a significant learning for other nations. These lessons will guide budget policymakers to prepare better for potential crisis in the future. Originality/value This paper is original and based on the NZ Government’s budgetary response to the COVID-19 pandemic. It will be valuable in formulating budget policies and public funding decisions in a major crisis.

The rhetoric of New Zealand's COVID-19 response

PurposeThe authors unpack the critical role of rhetoric in developing and justifying the New Zealand (NZ) government's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown strategy.Design/methodology/approachUsing Green's (2004) theory of rhetorical diffusion, the authors analysed government documents and media releases before, during and after the lockdown to reconstruct the government's rationale.FindingsThe blending of kairos (sense of urgency and “right” time to act), ethos (emphasis on “saving lives”), pathos (fear of disruption and death) and selective use of health-based logos (shrinking infection rates), prompted fast initial adoption of the lockdown. However, support for the rhetoric wavered post-lockdown as absence of robust logos became apparent to the public.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors implicate the role of rhetoric in decision-makers’ ability to successfully elicit support for a new practice under urgency and the right moment to act using emotionalisation and moralisation. The assessment of the NZ government's response strategy provides insights decision-makers could glean in developing policies to tame the virus.Practical implicationsThis study’s analysis demonstrates the unsustainability of rhetoric in the absence of reliable information.Originality/valueThe authors demonstrate the consequences of limited (intermittent) evidence and disregard for accounting/accountability data in public policy decisions under a rhetorical strategy.

Ensuring the right to food for indigenous children: a case study of stakeholder perspectives on policy options to ensure the rights of tamariki M\u0101ori to healthy food

BackgroundThe United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child confirms a child’s right to adequate food, and to the highest attainable standard of health. For indigenous children, these rights are also recognised in the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. However, Indigenous children endure higher rates of obesity and related health conditions than non-indigenous children, including in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). For indigenous tamariki (Māori children) in NZ, high levels of obesity are interconnected with high rates of food insecurity. Therefore there is a need for action. This study aimed to investigate policy options that would safeguard the rights of indigenous children to healthy food. We explored with key stakeholder’s policy options to ensure the rights of indigenous children to healthy food, through a case study of the rights of tamariki.MethodsInterviews were conducted with 15 key stakeholders, with experience in research, development or delivery of policies to safeguard the rights of tamariki to healthy food. Iterative thematic analysis of the transcripts identified both deductive themes informed by Kaupapa Māori theory and literature on rights-based approaches and inductive themes from the interviews.ResultsThe analysis suggests that to ensure the right to adequate food and to healthy food availability for tamariki, there needs to be: a comprehensive policy response that supports children’s rights; an end to child poverty; food provision and food policy in schools; local government policy to promote healthy food availability; and stronger Māori voices and values in decision-making.ConclusionsThe right to food for indigenous children, is linked to political and economic systems that are an outcome of colonisation. A decolonising approach where Māori voices and values are central within NZ policies and policy-making processes is needed. Given the importance of food to health, a broad policy approach from the NZ government to ensure the right to adequate food is urgent. This includes economic policies to end child poverty and specific strategies such as food provision and food policy in schools. The role of Iwi (tribes) and local governments needs to be further explored if we are to improve the right to adequate food within regions of NZ.

Two-Year Post-Housing Outcomes for a Housing First Cohort in Aotearoa New Zealand

Background: Housing First (HF) is an approach that improves outcomes for people who have experienced homelessness. Housing provision in HF is immediate, non-conditional, and permanent, with open-ended wraparound support offered. This paper reports one-year and two-year post-housing outcomes for 387 people housed by the first HF programme in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ).Methods: We linked the de-identified cohort to Statistics NZ’s (StatsNZ) Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI). This database contains administrative data on services provided by the NZ Government. This paper reports on interactions with government services by the cohort both before and after being housed. We focus on the domains of health, justice, and income.Results: The cohort experienced a sizeable drop in healthcare service interactions. Average bed-nights in both mental health inpatient (-59%) and residential units (-50%) more than halved in year one and maintained the reduced average in year two (-41% and -51%). Outpatient events increased 15% in year one and 31% in year two. The average person in the HF cohort had almost $3,000 more in overall total income across benefits and wages/salaries in the two years after being housed.Conclusions: Our findings show promising early changes in mental health outcomes and income rates for those housed, demonstrating that the HF approach is likely to have had early positive impacts. In a dynamic policy context, support and coordination of services is still needed at two years post-housed.Funding: This paper was supported by funding from the Aotearoa NZ Ministry of Business,Innovation, and Employment Endeavour Fund.Declaration of Interest: Clare Aspinall has received compensation via a contract with Community Housing Aotearoa to advise on Covid-19 response, and is Vice-Chair of Dwell Housing Trust. Carole McMinn is a paid employee of The People’s Project/The Wise Group; Philippa Howden-Chapman is a Ministerial Appointment to the Board of Kāinga Ora: Homes and Communities; Julie Nelson is on the Governance Board of The People’s Project, and is the joint Chief Executive of The Wise Group; Kerry Hawkes is the paid Manager of The People’s Project. All other authors have no competing interests.Ethical Approval: Ethics approval was granted by the University of Otago Human Research Ethics Committee, reference number 16/049.

Re-Opening after COVID-19 in New Zealand

New Zealand (NZ) opted for complete suppression of the spread of COVID-19. We summarise how the rules, introduced by the NZ government, affected the operation and staffing of the biggest regional museum and science centre, the Otago Museum.

The Dominant Narrative of the New Zealand–China Free Trade Agreement: Peripheral Evidence, Presumptive Tilt and Business Realities

ABSTRACT New Zealand (NZ) was the first developed country to sign a free trade agreement with China. Afterwards, the NZ government crafted a narrative to encourage businesses to pursue opportunities there and in emerging Asia more generally to enact the enabling institutional change. Our study shows neoliberal free-trade rhetoric matched and thus likely confirmed businesses’ opportunity perceptions but often mismatched their capabilities and thus interests. Businesses sampled predictably lacked scale, scope and other resources to realise the opportunities they perceived. We argue government communications tilted businesses towards the simplifying presumption that substantial opportunities lay within fairly easy grasp. As a result, over-enactment in entering the Chinese market followed. We identify the construct of ‘peripheral evidence’ as propping up presumptive tilt here and generally – irrelevant but widely observable facts or well-accepted predictions and opinion inappropriately shifted to centre-stage. Such centring discourages critical discourse and displaces properly central considerations – here the fundamental obstacles of size, scale and resources. Our study contributes to constructivist institutionalism by showing the mechanisms and tangible risks of uncritical pro-enactment discourse after formal trade liberalisation.

Use of mixed methods to investigate case definitions to improve the identification of serious injury cases from hospital episode data

IntroductionIt has been commonplace internationally, when using hospital data, to use the principal diagnosis to identify injury cases and the first external cause of injury code (E-code) to identify the...

An economic analysis of a contingency model utilising vaccination for the control of equine influenza in a non-endemic country.

BackgroundEquine influenza (EI) is an infectious respiratory disease of horses that has never been reported in New Zealand (NZ). However, the 2007 EI outbreak in Australia, previously EI free, spurred the NZ government and stakeholders into evaluating alternative EI control strategies in order to economically justify any future decision to eradicate or manage EI. To build on the policy debate, this paper presents an epinomic (epidemiologic and economic) modelling approach to evaluate alternative control strategies. An epidemiologic model to determine how alternative EI control strategies influence the distribution of EI. Model results were then input into a cost-benefit analysis framework, to identify the return and feasibility of alternative EI eradication strategies in NZ.MethodsThe article explores nine alternative eradication scenarios and two baseline strategies. The alternative scenarios consisted of three vaccination strategies (suppressive, protective or targeted) starting at three time points to reflect the commercial breeding-cycle. These alternatives were compared to two breeding-cycle adjusted baselines: movement restriction in the breeding season (August to January) or non-breeding season (February to July). The economic loss parameters were incursion response, impact to the commercial racing industry (breeding, sales and racing), horse morbidity and mortality, and compensation to industry participants.Results and conclusionsResults suggest that the economic viability of the EI eradication programme is dependent on when within the breeding-cycle the EI outbreak occurs. If an outbreak were to occur, the return on each dollar invested for protective or suppressive vaccination strategies would be between NZD$3.67 to NZD$4.89 and between NZD$3.08 to NZD$3.50 in the breeding and non-breeding seasons, respectively. Therefore, protective or suppressive vaccination strategies could be prioritised, regardless of season. As multiple industry stakeholders benefit from these strategies, the study will enable policy development and to better formulate a user-pays eradication programme.

Update on rheumatic fever in New Zealand

Despite being a relatively affluent nation, New Zealand (NZ) has persistently high rates of acute rheumatic fever (ARF) disproportionally affecting Māori and Pacific people. In 2011 the NZ government launched the Rheumatic Fever Prevention Programme (RFPP) with the stated aims of achieving equity of incidence and outcomes of ARF between Māori/Pacific and other NZ children, and to achieve a reduction in the national incidence of ARF by two-thirds, from 4.0 per 100,000 people in 2011 to 1.4 per 100,000 people by 2017. The three interventions of the RFPP are: (1) improve access to timely diagnosis and treatment for group A streptococcal pharyngitis; (2) increase awareness of ARF; and (3) reduce household crowding and transmission of group A streptococcus. The presentation will cover the epidemiology of ARF in NZ, and discuss issues arising from the RFPP and outcomes.