New-Keynesian Dynamic General Equilibrium Model Research Articles

Pension Fund Restoration Policy in General Equilibrium

This paper quantifies the business cycle effects and distributional implications of pension fund restoration policy after the economy has been hit by a financial shock. We extend a canonical New-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model with a tractable demographic structure and a pension fund. Numerical simulations show that economies with pension funds that primarily write off accumulated pension wealth to restore financial adequacy behave similarly to an economy without a pension fund. Significant deviations from laissez-faire arise when the pension fund increases the pension fund contribution rate to close the funding gap or postpones the closure of the funding gap. At a cost of significantly distorting aggregate labour supply and output, the pension fund can shelter the group of retirees from unanticipated shocks by guaranteeing the value of their accumulated pension wealth. A defined benefit pension fund can be welfare improving to the group of agents that is already born in the period the financial shock hits. However, since pension funding gaps are typically closed over an extended period of time, a part of the welfare gains to currently alive agents comes at the expense of future, currently unborn, generations.

Foreign exchange reserve diversification and the “exorbitant privilege”: Global macroeconomic effects

We assess the macroeconomic implications for the global economy of different strategies of official reserve management by developing a large scale new-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model, calibrated to the euro area, the United States, China and the rest of the world. An increase in the global demand for euros would boost euro area aggregate demand because of the reduction in euro area interest rates (the main benefit associated with the “privilege” of being a global currency). If the higher demand for euros is associated with lower demand for US dollars, then US aggregate demand falls because of higher interest rates, while the external balance improves; countries accumulating reserves continue to run a trade surplus, as exports to the euro area increase. We also compute welfare gains/costs for all economies.

Foreign Exchange Reserve Diversification and the 'Exorbitant Privilege'

We assess the global macroeconomic implications of different strategies of official reserve management by developing a large scale new-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, calibrated on the euro area, the United States, China, Japan and the rest of the world. An increase in global demand for euros would boost euro-area aggregate demand because of the reduction in euro-area interest rates (the main benefit associated with the “privilege” of being a global currency). If the higher demand for euros is associated with lower demand for US dollars, then US economic activity falls because of higher interest rates, which depress domestic aggregate demand, while the external balance improves; countries accumulating reserves continue to run a trade surplus, as exports to the euro-area increase. We also compute welfare gains/costs for all economies.

Money-based stabilization in a small open economy

We studied the effects of a credible money-based stabilization program under a flexible exchange rate regime in the context of New-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model for a small open economy. In this study, we successfully replicated the main stylized facts of money-based stabilization, a slow inflation convergence and an initial recession in domestic sector. In contrast with the previous results, however, a credible money-based disinflation in this model produces a sustained expansion in domestic sector after the initial contraction.

Fiscal and monetary policy interactions: Empirical evidence and optimal policy using a structural New-Keynesian model

This paper examines the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies using an estimated New-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model for the US. In contrast to earlier work using VAR models, we show that the strategic complementarity or substitutability of fiscal and monetary policy depends crucially on the types of shocks hitting the economy, and on the assumptions made about the underlying structural model. We also demonstrate that countercyclical fiscal policy can be welfare-reducing if fiscal and monetary policy rules are inertial and not co-ordinated.