Net Transmitter Of Shocks Research Articles

Harmony in diversity: Exploring connectedness and portfolio strategies among crude oil, gold, traditional and sustainable index

The research investigates dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies among crude oil, gold, global traditional (DJGI) and sustainable (DJSI) indices. The time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) findings reveal that the average total connectedness among the assets is 33.03%, with the total dynamic connectedness index exhibiting a notable surge during two crises and one stability period. The upsurge exhibited a predominant prevalence of short-run connectedness during crisis periods, notably amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Conversely, the last and first quarters of 2017 and 2018 manifested as periods of stability, wherein long-term interconnectedness prevailed. Crude oil and gold emerge as the primary recipients of systemic shocks, while traditional and sustainable stock indices act as net transmitters of shocks. The BEKK and DCC GARCH models indicate short- and long-run persistence among the assets. Further, the study calculated hedge ratios and portfolio weights. Our empirical findings indicate that gold serves as a cost-effective hedging asset. Investors should invest more in the traditional stock index than in gold and crude oil to form an optimal portfolio. Notably, the global sustainable index offers results similar to those of the traditional index. Investors in the sustainable index would invest a similar amount for diversification and hedging with other traditional assets as they would for the traditional index.

Dynamic interconnectedness of economic confidence, energy prices, and interest rates: Insights from the euro area

This work examines the time-varying interlinkages among economic confidence, energy prices, geopolitical stress, and short/long-term interest rates in the Euro Area. Our research meticulously explores the interplay between economic confidence and various determinants, including financial indicators, geopolitical stress incidents, and energy prices. Employing innovative approaches such as the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) time and frequency-domain connectedness, we uncover the nuanced relationships between economic confidence, financial indicators, and energy prices. We illuminate the systemic nature of shock transmission in the Euro Area, identifying key net transmitters and recipients of shocks, with short-term interconnectedness emerging as a dominant feature, especially during pivotal events such as the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical conflicts. Our empirical findings can be summarized as follows: First, both the time and frequency-domain connectedness indexes correctly associate with major financial/geopolitical events. Second, BCI and CCI respond to the GFC asymmetrically. Third, Brent and short/long-term interest rates are the net transmitters of shocks on average. Fourth, there is a considerable augmentation in return spillovers during the period characterized by the pandemic crisis compared to the GFC. Finally, our findings for frequency-dependent connectedness networks indicate that the market is particularly susceptible to short-term shocks. This study has significant ramifications for investors, market players, and policymakers.

Quantile connectedness and network among Green bonds, Renewable Energy, and G7 sustainability markets

This paper examines the quantile spillovers and interconnectedness between green bonds, renewable energy, and the G7 sustainability markets under extreme market conditions. It reaches beyond the widely employed studies based in the mean values of variables by resorting to the advanced quantile vector auto-regression methodology. The results show that the overall connectedness is stronger during extreme, either bearish or bullish market situations, than during normal market conditions. Furthermore, we show that all sustainability markets, except Japan, are the net transmitters of shocks, while all the green bonds are the net receivers. Moreover, we document that spillovers vary significantly over time and that extreme market conditions reduce the net spillover influences. The relative tail dependence analysis shows that the connectedness at the lower quantile relatively dominates the connectedness at the upper quantile. Finally, the total spillovers are higher at the extremes than at the median quantile, whereas the periods of major crises are associated with unusually high connectedness, as consistent with the literature on contagion effects.

Clean energy market connectedness and investment strategies: New evidence from DCC-GARCH R[formula omitted] decomposed connectedness measures

In this study, we investigate the return propagation mechanism across four clean energy indices, namely, the NASDAQ OMX Green Economy Index, NASDAQ OMX Solar Energy Index, NASDAQ OMX Wind Energy Index, and NASDAQ OMX Geothermal Energy Index ranging from December 21st, 2010 until June 2nd, 2023 by using a novel DCC-GARCH-based R2 decomposed connectedness approach. This framework allows us to efficiently decompose dynamic conditional R2 goodness-of-fit measures into its decomposed components. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of minimum R2 decomposed connectedness portfolios and multivariate hedging portfolios. We find that the dynamic total connectedness is heterogeneous over time and economic-event dependent. In addition, the empirical results highlight that the NASDAQ OMX Green Economy Index is a net transmitter of shocks while all others are net receivers of shocks. Finally, we find that our proposed portfolio technique outperforms the NASDAQ OMX Green Economy Index as well as all alternative multivariate portfolio techniques regarding the hedging effectiveness score and the Sharpe ratio.

Dynamic connectedness of clean energy markets, green markets, and sustainable markets: The role of climate policy uncertainty

This study examines the dynamic connectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets, and determine how climate policy uncertainty affects the level of connectedness in these markets. To this end, we use clean energy and clean technological innovation assets to represent clean energy markets; green bonds and clean cryptocurrency assets to represent green markets; and carbon and sustainability assets to represent sustainable markets. To analyze the connectedness, we apply a novel Quantile Connectedness measure to daily data ranging from January 9th, 2018 to September 11th, 2023. Results reveal a strong interconnectedness of clean energy markets, green markets, and sustainable markets. Results also show that clean energy markets are net transmitters of shocks, green markets are net receivers of shocks, and sustainable markets are both net transmitters and net receivers of shocks. Furthermore, to examine the role of climate policy uncertainty, we employ three different nonlinear methods, namely; the nonparametric causality-in-quantiles, quantile regression, and Kernel-based regularized least squares. Empirical results suggest that climate policy uncertainty has a causal and positive effect on the interconnectedness of clean energy, green, and sustainable markets. These findings are validated by various robustness analyses, and hence, provide vital insights into the risk diversification's goal of investors and portfolio managers.

Does news related to digital economy and central bank digital currency affect digital economy ETFs? Evidence from TVP-VAR connectedness and wavelet local multiple correlation analyses

The rapid and widespread digitalization of economies warrants a better understanding of its impact on society and economy. This study contributes to this new but important research agenda by examining how news on digitalization affects digital economy related exchange traded funds (ETFs). For this purpose, we first construct a digital economy attention index by utilizing Google Search Volume Index for several keywords. Then, using this index and two other indices that represent attention and uncertainty related to central bank digital currency (CBDC), we examine the time-varying connectedness and correlations between these three indices and digital economy ETFs. Our TVP-VAR frequency connectedness analysis shows that attention to and uncertainty around the CBDC and digital economy have strong connectedness with the ETFs in the short-term. The analysis also shows that CBDC and digital economy indices are mainly net transmitters of shocks while the majority of the ETFs are the net receivers of the shocks. The results of our wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) analysis show that the correlations between ETFs, digital economy and CBDC indices are time- and frequency-dependent. Moreover, both connectedness and correlations are affected by CBDC-related global events and COVID-19 pandemic. The time- and frequency-dependent relation requires active management of the portfolios containing digital economy related assets.

Interplay of crises: Unpacking intraday spillovers in oil and European equities in the shadow of the COVID-19 and the Ukraine-Russia war

This study investigates the time-varying frequency of spillovers between European stock markets and oil during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war. Using the spillover index by Diebold & Yilmaz, 2012 and Baruník & Křehlík, 2018, we analyze high-frequency data at a 5-min interval to analyze the interplay between crude oil market returns and the Stoxx 600 index returns, including sectors such as auto, basic material, banks, chemicals, food and beverage, health, industrials, insurance, oil and gas, retail, real estate, technology (tech), telecommunication (telecom), and utilities. The sample period is January 3, 2022, to March 25, 2022. Our findings reveal a substantial degree of connectedness within this financial network, with specific sectors—auto, chemicals, food, industrials, insurance, real estate, retail, tech, and telecom—acting as net transmitters of shocks, while other sectors assume the role of net receivers. The Russia-Ukraine war is a significant driver of these interconnected dynamics. Spillovers are most prevalent in the medium-term horizon, with the time dimension affecting the role of sectors and oil. Furthermore, our research highlights the potential benefits of adding oil assets to portfolios, enhancing risk-adjusted performance. However, ongoing risk management remains crucial due to the dynamic hedge ratios. This study offers practical insights for investors and policy makers, aiding risk management and investment strategies in turbulent markets.

Dynamic connectedness among the BRICS markets and the recent pandemic: an application of TVP-VAR approach

PurposeThis study analyses the impact of the Covid-19 on stock market performance of BRICS nations together. BRICS countries comprise almost 30% of the global GDP and around 50% of the world’s economic growth. As BRICS nations have gained the attraction as financial investment destinations, their financial markets have apparently been as potential opportunities for foreign portfolio investors. While there is extensive research on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on individual economies and global financial markets, this paper is among the first to systematically investigate the dynamic connectedness of these emerging economies during the pandemic using the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (TVP-VAR) approach.Design/methodology/approachWe categorise our data into two distinct periods: the pre-Covid period spanning from January 1, 2018, to March 10, 2020, and the Covid crisis period extending from March 11, 2020, to June 4, 2021. To achieve our research objectives, we employ the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressions (TVP-VAR) approach to assess dynamic connectedness.FindingsOur findings reveal that among the BRICS nations, Brazil and South Africa serve as net transmitters of shocks, while China and India act as net receivers of shocks during the Covid crisis. However, the total connectedness index (TCI) has exhibited a notable increase throughout this crisis period. This paper makes several notable contributions to the academic literature by offering a unique focus on BRICS economies during the Covid-19 pandemic, providing practical insights for stakeholders, emphasising the importance of risk management and investment strategy, exploring diversification implications and introducing advanced methodology for analysing interconnected financial markets.Research limitations/implicationsThe results have important implications for the investors, the hedge funds, portfolio managers and the policymakers in BRICS stock markets. The investors, investment houses, portfolio managers and policymakers can develop investment strategies and policies in the light of the findings of this study to cope up the future pandemic crisis.Originality/valueThis study is one of its kind that examines the dynamic connectedness of BRICS with recently developed TVP-VAR approach across pandemic crisis.

Contagion between investor sentiment and green bonds in China during the global uncertainties

This study explores the connectedness between investor sentiment (IS) and Chinese green bonds using a QVAR from 30th June 2017 to 29th June 2022. Dynamic connectedness is more apparent in the short term (23%) compared to the long term (4%). Net total directional connectedness over quantiles suggests that IS is a main net receiver of shocks during our sample period under 20% and over 80% quantile. However, IS is also a net transmitter of shocks between 20% and 80% quantile. Green bond is a net receiver of shocks over quantiles. Uncertainties such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic are attributed to changes in investor sentiment and Chinese green bonds. The findings of this article have profound implications for investors, policymakers, and the broader financial community, in terms of gaining insights into and warnings about how uncertainty occurrences can spread, and accordingly designing appropriate investment policies for stabilizing the stock market in China, and the emerging economies at large.

Japanese stock market sectoral dynamics: A time and frequency analysis

AbstractThis study examines the Japanese stock market connectedness across different sectors, focusing on both the time and frequency dimensions. The dataset used spans from January 1999 to April 2022 and employs various methodologies, including time‐varying parameter vector autoregressions, TVP‐VAR frequency dependency, and Quantile coherency. The empirical findings reveal that cyclical or aggressive stocks predominantly act as net transmitters of shocks across sectors. Moreover, short‐term spillovers are more significant compared to intermediate‐term spillovers, indicating that Japanese sectors are more pronounced to market shocks in the short run. The spillover effects are also asymmetric and vary over time. Additionally, the real estate sector exhibits diversification benefits across different time horizons, while the energy sector provides protection primarily in the short run. This research contributes to the development of financial policies aimed at reducing sectoral imbalances and promoting stable growth. Furthermore, it offers insights for investors seeking to devise optimal portfolio diversification strategies.

Markov-switching multifractal volatility spillovers among European stock markets during crisis periods

ABSTRACT This research investigates time-varying volatility spillovers and connectedness among European stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia – Ukraine war, two events that destabilized global markets. With data from 20 European stock markets spanning 17 December 2019, to 17 March 2022, we employ the TVP-VAR model and estimate volatility using the Markov-switching multifractal volatility technique. Findings from log-volatility estimates suggest that markets are highly connected, with price movement driven mainly by spillover effects from other markets in the same region. Most emerging markets are net receivers of volatility, with most of Europe’s major markets being net transmitters of shocks. The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have impacted European stock markets more than the Russia – Ukraine war. Shifting to the results obtained based on MSM volatility estimates, we find that markets strongly correlate for both high and low volatility. In the case of a high volatility regime, we document the dominance of Finland, Denmark, and Iceland over major European markets. In contrast, under a low volatility regime, we note the dominance of major markets, including the UK and France, over emerging markets in Europe. The findings reveal the diversification potential of emerging European stock markets.

Second-order moment risk connectedness across climate and geopolitical risk and global commodity markets

Extant literature has visited the impact of climate and geopolitical risk (GPR) on cross-market linkages. However, it falls short in examining the risk of spillover in the commodity market during wartime and natural disasters. Using the second moment, we look into the risk spillover and connectedness between climate and geopolitical risk and commodity market and highlight that climate and geopolitical risk are net transmitters of shocks in the network. The results also show the loss of hedging abilities of precious metals against GPR. These findings are significant for policy and for the investors.

World uncertainty and commodity currencies

ABSTRACT This paper contributes to the literature by analysing shock propagation mechanisms between world uncertainty, exchange rates and country-specific commodity terms of trade. Using monthly data from 2008 to 2020 for eight commodity currencies’ exchange rates, we analyse the impulse responses based on local projections. The study results show that a shock from the exchange rates which are net transmitters of shocks through the direct United States (US) dollar effect causes world uncertainty to rise and subsequently fall due to the indirect commodity terms of trade effect. Also, in response to world uncertainty shock, the exchange rates fall in the risk-on period and subsequently overshoot during the risk-off period when investors seek the safe haven of the dollar. The world uncertainty shock on the exchange rate is predominantly experienced in the economies that largely trade commodities with the US, particularly Russia and Canada. The study finds evidence that the dollar is a prime cause of world uncertainty. Hence, for policy implications, the study discusses that policymakers, investors, or traders pay attention to the dollar which is the main invoicing currency in the international market.

Do stochastic risks flow between industrial and precious metals, Islamic stocks, green bonds, green stocks, clean investments, major foreign exchange rates, and Bitcoin?

This study examines the interactions between Bitcoin (BTC) and other major financial markets (forex, equity and bond, and industrial and precious metals). This interaction is viewed from the spectrum of spillover analysis, hedging, and portfolio analyses. Due to the high volatility and volatility clustering nature of most financial series, particularly BTC, we rely on a Multivariate Factor Stochastic Volatility (mvFSV) Model of Kastner et al. (2017). In order to capture the influence of extreme market conditions, we use a quantile-based mvFSV Model. Among other things, results confirm the importance of quantile analysis as results are sensitive to market conditions. For instance, currencies and industrial and precious metals are net transmitters of shocks at lower and middle quantiles, while these assets change their status to the net receiver of shocks at the upper quantile. Results of the total connectedness show that there is a high degree of interconnectedness among the assets, as the total connectedness index ranges between 86% and 100%. Besides, Islamic equities perform such as the most currencies and conventional assets in terms of the transmission of shocks and diversification benefits. The hedging potentials of Bitcoin over other assets were also examined, and results confirm that the hedging effectiveness is commodity-specific. Policy implications of these results are discussed.

An application of QVAR dynamic connectedness between geopolitical risk and renewable energy volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflicts

The article is the first to employ a quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to identify the connectedness between geopolitical risks and energy volatility from January 1, 2015, to April 03, 2023. This paper is also the first to examine the mediating roles of uncertain events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict on this interlinkage. Dynamic connectedness is 29% in the short term and approximately 6% in the long term. Dynamic net total directional connectedness over a quantile also indicates that connectedness is very intense for both highly positive changes (above the 80% quantile) and negative changes (below the 20% quantile). In the short term, the geopolitical risks remained net receivers of shock, but they turned into net shock transmitters during 2020 in the long term. Clean energy, in the short term, transmits shocks to other markets, and it plays the same role in the long term. Crude oil was a net receiver of shocks during COVID-19 and turned into a net transmitter of shocks in early 2022. Dynamic net pairwise directional connectedness over a quantile suggests that uncertain events like the COVID-19 epidemic or the Russia-Ukraine conflict influence the dynamic interlinkages between geopolitical risks and renewable energy volatility and change their roles in the designed system. These findings are critical since they help authorities develop effective policies to lessen the vulnerabilities of these indicators and minimize how widely the renewable and non-renewable energy market is exposed to risk or uncertainty.

Network connectedness of the term structure of yield curve and global Sukuks

This paper explores the connectedness between the returns and volatilities of the conventional and Islamic bond markets. We use the level, slope, and curvature of the US yield curve and estimate the connectedness of these factors with the Dow Jones Islamic indices (of 3 to 10 years of maturity) as well as the minimum connectedness portfolio. The static analysis shows that level and slope of the conventional yield curve are the net transmitters of shocks while the Islamic indices have been mostly at the receiving end. The dynamic connectedness analysis shows a varying degree of the connectedness over the full sample period characterized by distinctive trajectories of booms and busts. The pairwise connectedness analysis also confirms that level and slope are the net transmitters in the system with an exception in most recent times of Covid-19 pandemic. The findings have implications for the researchers, policy makers, regulators, shariah boards, investors, and fund managers.

Is agricultural self-sufficiency effective to protect local markets from global markets? Empirical evidence from the beef sector in Japan

ABSTRACT Although for decades, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery of Japan has formed agricultural policies based on food self-sufficiency as a vital factor in securing the domestic food supply, the impacts of agricultural self-sufficiency on the relationship between international and domestic markets are not well understood. Most previous literature on agricultural price transmissions applies conventional error correction and vector autoregression models. However, we employ the state-of-the-art technique, namely the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) connectedness model, as well as the dynamic conditional correlations based on the asymmetric Baba – Engle–Kraft – Kroner method to investigate the effectiveness of beef self-sufficiency and its inventory in stabilizing local beef prices in Japan. Our primary results indicate that the global beef price is the net transmitter of shocks, while the home-grown beef price in Japan is the net receiver of shocks. Furthermore, we find that high self-sufficiency in beef does not significantly protect local beef markets from global beef markets, but the imported beef inventory effectively alleviates the wholesale price volatility of imported beef. One policy implication is that the government should not take protectionist policies to enhance beef self-sufficiency, and import beef stocks could be accumulated to stabilize imported beef markets.

Returns and volatility connectedness among the Eurozone equity markets

AbstractThe rising degree of integration among different countries around the world calls for the examination of cross‐country connectedness across equity markets. Moreover, the interconnection among some countries – bound by their common economic policies, treaties and agreements, such as Eurozone countries – is stronger than among others. Strong inter‐country ties may cause an intense connectedness among their financial systems. This study examines the returns and volatility connectedness among the equity markets of the Eurozone countries. Using the TVP‐VAR model, we document strong connectedness among their stock markets. The net transmitters of shocks are the most developed Eurozone stock markets, while Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia are among the most vulnerable to risks from the more developed Eurozone economies. Thus, for any event that triggers risk transmission across the Eurozone equity markets, equity investors in less developed countries will be more vulnerable to risks from the nine more developed economies.

Measuring the frequency and quantile connectedness between policy categories and global oil price

This study explores the connectedness between various categories of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and global crude oil prices in different frequencies and quantiles using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition and data in the US, China, and Japan from January 2000 to May 2022. The empirical results may be summarized as follows. First, total short and long term connectedness exhibits different patterns and is more sensitive to extreme positive and negative shocks than regular shocks. Second, fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) and monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) tend to act as net transmitters of shocks, while the roles of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) are mixed in the short term, irrespective of the country. However, under extreme market conditions, no specific-category EPU features a clear net transmitter/recipient. Finally, the results are qualitatively and quantitatively unaffected by the chosen proxy of crude oil prices and are not altered by global real economic activity.

Transmission pathways between foreign aid and renewable energy consumption in Vietnam

Our paper is the first attempt to analyze the environmental consequences and energy security of foreign aid in Vietnam during the 1987–2019 period. We apply various modern econometric techniques, including the multivariate Wavelet model and an extended time-varying vector autoregression (TVP-VAR). By using the multivariate wavelet model, we find that there are cycles of period 3–4 years in the 1988–1992 sample and 18–25 years in the 1985–2001 and 1989–2009 sample for the nexus between foreign aid growth and nonrenewable, renewable energy consumption. The region (from 1989 to 1992) implies that changes in foreign aid adversely led to changes in renewable energy consumption. In those regions, the phase (1993–2005) suggests the anti-phase relation with renewable consumption leading. The phase (2006–2011) implies that changes in foreign aid adversely led to changes in renewable energy consumption. By using an extended TVP-VAR, we reveal that nearly 61% of error variance within the system stems from idiosyncratic effects. We demonstrate that there are changes in the roles of foreign aid over time. Foreign aid plays a role as a net transmitter of shocks from 1988 to 2003 and net transmitter of shocks from 1988 to 2003 and transforms into a net receiver of shocks from 2004 to 2019. In 1989, foreign aid also transmits the greatest shocks to the use of renewable energy. Furthermore, from 1988 to 1995, nonrenewable energy shocks affect the inflows of foreign aid, which then acts as a shock transmitter of these shock to the economy since 1995.