Net Transition Research Articles

Promoting Urban Net Zero Transitions Through Multi-Level Governance: The Intermediary Role of Systemic Collaborative Platforms

Promoting Urban Net Zero Transitions Through Multi-Level Governance: The Intermediary Role of Systemic Collaborative Platforms

The Long-Run Effects of Individual Debt Relief

Abstract Individuals with extensive debt may be granted debt relief in court. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of the Danish debt relief program with data from court records linked to nationwide register data. Using event-study methods and quasi-random assignment of applicants to court trustees with varying admission rates, we show that debt relief leads to a large increase in earned income, employment, assets, real estate, secured debt, home ownership, and wealth that persists for more than 25 years after a court ruling. The net transition of workers into employment accounts for two thirds of the increase in earned income.

Distrust and reflexive impotence in the net zero transition: findings from a longitudinal deliberative mini-public

Responding to climate change requires that people engage in different forms of climate citizenship. These span from individual consumption choices, to taking part in forms of collective action to steer the behaviour of governments and in the private sector. Here we analyse data from the Net Zero Diaries project to explore how attitudes to different forms of climate citizenship develop as people become more aware about the scale of societal change required to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Net Zero Diaries project was a deliberative mini-public, composed of 41 citizens broadly representative of the UK adult population, which convened over five months between 2021 and 2022 to debate the UK policies for reaching net zero emissions by 2050. We show that people identify government as the prime actor needed to drive the transition, but doubt that they will act due to a range of constraints vis-à-vis the public and private sector. This tension provides a novel explanation for why some people prioritise forms of individual and consumption focused climate citizenship, whilst also doubting the efficacy of such actions. We conclude by suggesting that efforts to drive more engaged forms of climate citizenship need to attend to underlying feelings about state efficacy, rather than focus on just how the issue of climate change is framed.

Evaluating UKCP18-Based weather files for overheating assessment using building simulation: A case study for a flat in london

Global warming and net zero transition are the two biggest challenges currently faced by the building industry in the UK. While the net zero transition primarily focuses on the problems of energy efficiency and heat decarbonization, the rise of global temperature imposes a significant threat to the health and wellbeing of occupants and the industry is obliged to make buildings climate-resilient by testing their designs using future weather files. To improve the quality of the current weather files, a new project has been commissioned by CIBSE to revisit the data and the methodology employed for creating future weather files and produce new CIBSE weather files using the latest UK Climate Projections released in 2018 (UKCP18). In this study, we evaluate the newly produced weather files for overheating risk using building simulation. Two different batches of weather files were curated. The first batch was produced primarily using the existing methodology for creating the UKCP09 based weather files, with an adjustment to accommodate new features of the UKCP18 and an improved procedure for morphing the solar radiation data. The second batch was created through an improved morphing process to better emulate the characteristics of distributions of climatic variables. The differences between the existing UKCP09 and new UCKP18 based weather files are compared by evaluating overheating metrics. The new weather files enable robust building performance assessment against future climate conditions under different scenarios and will play an important role in designing climate-resilient buildings and delivering a net zero built environment. Practical applications As the extreme weather events resulting from climate change become more frequent and intense, they pose significant challenges to the resilience of the built environment and severe threats to the health and wellbeing of the occupants. Climate data, which serves as the foundation for climate risk assessment, plays a critical role in helping the building sector to achieve climate resilience through the means of performance assessment and the channel of regulatory compliance. In this study, the revised future weather files created using the latest UKCP18 climate projections are presented and evaluated using building simulation, as part of the weather file testing programme for quality assurance. The revision of the CIBSE weather files according to the latest climate science, i.e. UKCP18, will enable the building industry to quantify overheating risks with more accurate climate assumptions and better inform decision making about risk mitigation and climate adaptation.

Optimal distributed energy scheduling for port microgrid system considering the coupling of renewable energy and demand

The increased uptake of distributed renewable energy in port areas is facilitating the electrification and net zero transition of marine ports. Effective operation that considers unique characteristics of the port is critical to minimize the operating cost in the port microgrid (PMG). In this paper, we propose a joint scheduling method that considers the impact of tidal patterns on the period and intensity of port operations. The method takes advantage of the strong correlations between renewable energy (solar, wind and tidal) and multi-class load to support the PMG operator in determining the most cost-effective scheduling of energy supply and flexible loads during port activities. Additionally, the traditional centralized operation is vulnerable to local failures, and distributed operation for hundreds of energy units will result in significant computational burden, neither of which is suitable for the PMG operation. Our work decouples the PMG system based on the port functions and thus decomposes the PMG operation into a few subproblems. Then, we hierarchically solve the primal and dual problems by a distributed algorithm. Simulation results illustrate the benefits of tidal energy in the renewable generation mix. Furthermore, the proposed method achieves cost reductions of 12.4% and 21.7% under two different tidal patterns.

Addressing hardship and climate change: Citizens' perceptions of costs of living, social inequalities and priorities for policy

AbstractIn the wake of rising energy prices and the cost of living crisis, some have claimed that climate policies are at odds with citizens' more pressing everyday living concerns. Critics challenge these simplifying narratives that shorter term economic and social wellbeing priorities and ‘longer term’ decarbonization policies are in tension with one another and argue that effective policies must treat them as interconnected. Evidence regarding how citizens think about climate policy mostly focus on policy acceptability, highlighting the role of perceptions of effectiveness and fairness, but there is a quite limited conceptualization of contexts of social inequality, and even more limited engagement with the views of marginalized groups whose buy‐in is seen as crucial for effective net zero transitions. This paper reviews the evidence and analyses new data from a small exploratory study with citizens from low income and marginalized backgrounds. In group discussions several participants emphasized the importance of tackling both social hardships and climate priorities, seen by some as interlinked. Further, many described wider societal unfairness relating to experiences of poverty, exploitation, a lack of voice or even recognition and a keen sense of disconnect between politics and their own everyday concerns and lived experiences. I argue that climate policy making should engage more fully with contexts of social inequality and that social wellbeing and systematic action on climate change need to be treated by policy makers and politicians as profoundly interlinked challenges.

Net Zero and Natural Resources Law: Sovereignty, Security and Solidarity in the Clean Energy Transition (Oxford University Press, 2024)

The IBA’s Section on Energy, Environment, Natural Resources and Infrastructure Law is advised by the Academic Advisory Group (AAG), a group of leading academics from around the world. Every two years, the AAG publishes a book about a key topic of interest to the entire Section. This year’s book focuses on the legal issues involved with the clean energy transition. In response to the climate emergency, several countries, corporations and other actors worldwide have announced programmes aimed at reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change to net zero by the year 2060 or earlier. While the need for a clean energy transition is clear, incoherently designed transition programmes could produce complex environmental, social and governance risks, including legal liability and protracted disputes. At the same time, the growing rush for minerals needed to manufacture clean energy technologies raises fundamental questions. Most crucial is how to ensure the exploration and development of energy transition minerals in a manner that does not exacerbate resource conflicts, resource nationalism, human rights violations, protectionism, energy insecurity, social exclusions and inequity, especially in conflict-affected and high-risk regions. These scenarios raise the need for net-zero and climate-aligned natural resource contracts, legislation and investment agreements to drive a just and inclusive energy transition. With presentations from some of the expert contributors to the latest AAG book, Net Zero and Natural Resources Law, this panel session reflected upon innovative legal drafting, contract negotiation and policymaking approaches needed to address the wide range of resource sovereignty, security and solidarity questions posed by the net zero transition.

National and Subnational Projection of Living Arrangements Pattern of Indian Elderly: Application of Net Transition Probability Macrosimulation Models

National and Subnational Projection of Living Arrangements Pattern of Indian Elderly: Application of Net Transition Probability Macrosimulation Models

Willingness to adopt green house gas mitigation measures: Agricultural land managers in the United Kingdom.

Rapid uptake of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures is central to reducing agricultural and land use emissions and meeting the UK Net Zero policy. The socioeconomic challenges and barriers to uptake are poorly understood, with yet unclear structural pathways to the uptake of GHG mitigation measures. Using an online survey of 201 agricultural land managers across the UK, and applying multiple linear regression and stepwise regression analysis, this research established farm and farmers' factors influencing perceptions and willingness to adopt GHG mitigation measures. The results consistently show that farm sector, farmers' business perception, and labour availability influence willingness to adopt GHG mitigation measures. Based on the farmers' qualitative feedback, other barriers to adoption include costs and concerns for profitability, lack of flexibility in land tenancy contracts, poor awareness and knowledge of the application of some GHG mitigation measures, perception about market demand e.g bioenergy crops, and scepticism about the future impacts of adopting varying GHG mitigation measures. In the midst of the ongoing net zero transition, this study identifies existing barriers to the uptake of GHG mitigation measures, and specifically, a substantial gap between farmers and the science of GHG mitigation measures and the need to incentivise a farm and farming community-led policy interventions to promote adoption of GHG mitigation measures.

Structural change and socio-economic disparities in a net zero transition

A net zero transition is likely to generate substantial and irreversible economic transformation. High-carbon industries and their related occupations will disappear, while new low-carbon industries and occupations will be created. In the aggregate, the impact of the transition on GDP and employment is commonly projected to be relatively moderate. However, such estimates hide drastic distributional issues that are sectorally and regionally concentrated. We use three sectorally detailed and regionally disaggregated macroeconomic models to explore the possible levels and impacts of structural change in a well below 2°C scenario. In addition to the expected decline in the carbon-intensive industries, we observe secondary impacts, particularly in the services sectors, that vary significantly between models. The risks entailed with structural change involve worsening economic disparity and societal division that could exacerbate existing socioeconomic and political polarisation. Impact assessments of decarbonisation should consider such distributional issues to avoid post-industrial decline and widening socioeconomic inequalities.

Place‐based and people‐centred: Principles for a socially inclusive Net Zero transition

AbstractThe transition to Net Zero marks a radical reshaping of many aspects of everyday life in the effort to reduce human‐caused climate change. It also has the potential to influence positively a number of social challenges: improving public health, reducing the effects of poverty, increasing well‐being and bringing neighbourhoods together. However, these positive outcomes are by no means a given. Households on low incomes are less resilient than ever following austerity, COVID‐19 and the cost‐of‐living crisis. In this paper, we report on research undertaken in seven low‐income neighbourhoods in Leeds and Newcastle in the UK, in which we ran a series of workshops to understand perspectives and concerns on this issue. We found that people's perceived ability to engage in Net Zero was shaped by the neighbourhood they live in (due to its geographical location, local services and infrastructure), their housing (the building and its tenure) and household (the people they live with) as well as by their inability to access funds. It is clear from our data that people have big concerns about their ability to participate in the substantial changes they can see ahead. Our research suggests that ensuring a successful Net Zero transition for low‐income neighbourhoods will require a place‐based and people‐centred approach. We conclude by offering three principles for tailoring research and policy to specific geographic and socio‐economic needs, including (1) recognising patterns of difference and their spatial and social roots, (2) bringing whole life experiences into narratives of the future and (3) prioritising social inclusion in climate policy.

Challenges in access, representativeness, and bias in smart financial data relating to income volatility and economic insecurity.

Introduction & BackgroundFinancial transaction data are highly valuable sources of digital footprints data for behavioural and economic research, but to properly create impact we must closely consider their limitations. Financial institutions hold a wealth of consumer data with untapped potential for community intelligence. These datasets combine excellent coverage with extremely granular information on consumer finances, income and spending, yet these institutions face great challenges in leveraging this data for social good. Smart Data Foundry is a university-owned, non-profit organisation that facilitates safe access to these datasets for researchers and provides insights to enable government bodies to tackle today's major challenges including the cost-of-living crisis and climate change. Objectives & ApproachWe will explore the opportunities afforded by these datasets for social and economic research. For example, using pseudonymised individual consumer banking data from NatWest Group, we have developed metrics for understanding income volatility and economic insecurity in collaboration with the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. We can also use these data to study consumer spending patterns and responses to economic changes such as interest rate rises and the net zero transition. We will assess the limitations of the data including issues of representativeness, bias, and missing data, and describe methods and mitigations to account for these challenges. We also discuss the barriers to accessing this type of data, in both relationship development with data partners, and privacy and governance concerns. Relevance to Digital FootprintsIndividual level customer transaction data provides a rich and novel form of digital footprint for behavioural and economic analyses. Every point of income or expenditure is recorded in a uniquely valuable digital footprint by financial institutions. These can provide a variety of insights, such as responses to macroeconomic shocks across demographic sets, emerging areas of financial distress, and help us better understand the drivers and risks of financial vulnerability. In both its aggregated and individual form, the data can provide an additional layer of understanding for trends we may see in other data, such as health or administrative data. Conclusions & ImplicationsHaving addressed the challenges of data access and data quality, we demonstrate that consumer banking data is an incredibly valuable form of digital footprints data, capturing key information on consumer behaviour. We conclude with a call for further research to develop use cases of this data for social good.

Integrated coupled assessment of geostorage and geothermal prospects in the oil fields of Upper Assam Basin

This study proposes an integrated approach of assessing CO2 storage potential and geothermal energy prospect based on the data of seventeen depleted wells of Upper Assam Basin which could assist the global objective of net zero transition. The petrophysical properties of Tipam, Barail and Lakadong + Therria Formations from the seventeen wells have been utilised to perform the Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic estimation of the CO2 storage in the Upper Assam Basin. This preliminary work showed that the mean storage capacity of 18.8 ± 0.7 MT, 19.8 ± 0.9 MT and 4.5 ± 0.8 MT could potentially be stored in the three geological formations of the basin. The corrected bottom hole temperature values for the studied seventeen wells were determined using the well log data and Waples and Harrison method; these values provided a static geothermal gradient for each well, which varies widely from 0.017 to 0.033 °C/m. In order to enable geothermal prospectivity, static formation temperature maps have been generated for the studied wells. The probabilistic assessment of stored heat-in-place and formation temperature maps delimited five prospective sites for the extraction of geothermal energy in the basin. The study also presented a risk assessment for CO2 storage development in the basin. Further, the study illustrated an economic analysis of the implementation of a CO2 storage project and geothermal operations in the basin.

Prudential net zero transition plans: the potential of a new regulatory instrument

AbstractNet zero transition plans are a promising additional instrument for prudential supervisors to assess, address and bring distant financial risks into the present. To date, transition plans have primarily emerged as non-financial disclosure requirement and as such, their prudential application has been limited. In this article, we discuss the role that transition plans can play as a new regulatory tool in banking supervision. The article outlines steps towards incorporating transition plans into prudential policy, thereby enabling supervisors to effectively use transition plans as a forward-looking instrument to better manage and overcome some of the challenges associated with climate transition risks.

Impact of land use evolution on the value of ecosystem services in the returned farmland area of the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi

The Grain-for-Green Program (GGP) has been contributing to changes in the nationwide use of land and vegetation, further changing ecosystem services (ESs). However, the influence of GGP on ESs, in terms of land use evolution remains elusive. This study is conducted based on a dataset collected every five years for the past 30 years. This dataset includes land use statistics and is obtained from Landsat images and the random forest algorithm. Land use evolution in the Loess Plateau in northern Shaanxi from 1990 to 2020 is systematically analyzed. The interest transfer method is adopted to compute the ecosystem service value (ESV), and the willingness and economic affordability are included in the evaluation model. Finally, a cross-sensitivity coefficient is specified to reveal the effects of land use evolution on the ESV in the studied area. The results are as follows: (1) Land use changes mainly occurred on farmland, forest, and orchards. In the past 30 years, the area of cultivated land showed a decreasing trend, whereas the land areas used for other purposes increased. (2) In the same period, the ESV of the investigated plateau continued to rise, increasing by 5.12 billion USD in total. Additionally, the ESV provided by secondary services increases in the following order: regulating services > supporting services > provisioning services > cultural services. (3) The cross-sensitivity coefficient showed that the net transition among forest, grassland, orchard, and unused land in the studied region is relatively sensitive, and a larger transition span of land utilization leads to a stronger effect on the ESV. This study offers crucial data for the compensation of interregional ecology and provides model cases for other regions for ecosystem management.

Systemic barriers preventing farmer engagement in the agricultural climate transition: a qualitative study

AbstractFarmers and the agricultural sector are facing an uncertain future, due to rapidly changing agricultural policy and a nexus of commercial, environmental and biodiversity challenges brought on by anthropogenic climate change. Balancing the interests of the farming community and natural environment is generating organisational and personal conflict, rather than effective agricultural adaption and a focus on the net zero transition. In this paper, we consider how farmers and the wider farming community can participate in engagement and decision-making for the transition, on their own terms, whilst ensuring social justice for fair and equitable decision-making. We discuss findings from our research project, that used questionnaires and follow up semi-structured interviews with farmers and farming groups to reveal systemic issues that prevent farmers engaging with the climate transition to net zero during their everyday practice. We highlight the structural relationships that form these barriers and frustrate farmers when designing and implementing farm interventions to agricultural systems during times of transition. Farmers have highlighted barriers to be associated with policy, (uncertain government strategy, landowner bias in government policy and tenancy restrictions, government bureaucracy—particularly environment schemes), commercial (market forces—downward pressure from supermarkets on price points, availability of labour due to seasonal migration restrictions, increasing cost of labour) and interpersonal (succession—uncertain future of the family farm due to limited income). This frustrates the ability of farmers to address climate change through farming practices and undermines the implementation of innovative engagement practices, such as co-produced interventions, in policy and decision-making settings.

Net Zero Transitions of Emission from Waste Oil for Sustainable Aviation Needs

Abstract: Leading the way in the evolution of aviation, our project cleverly repurposes waste oil into a state of-the-art nanofuel. Driven by the goal of achieving net-zero emissions, this groundbreaking initiative is a beacon of innovation and sustainability. By carefully integrating cutting-edge nano additives and employing a parabolic trough collector, we not only redefine the environmental impact of aviation but also usher in a future where waste oil is the cornerstone of cleaner skies. Come along on this exciting journey with us, where every drop of waste oil becomes a catalyst for a more sustainable and environmentally conscious aviation landscape

Cost and thermodynamic analysis of wind-hydrogen production via multi-energy systems

With rising temperatures, extreme weather events, and environmental challenges, there is a strong push towards decarbonization and an emphasis on renewable energy, with wind energy emerging as a key player. The concept of multi-energy systems offers an innovative approach to decarbonization, with the potential to produce hydrogen as one of the output streams, creating another avenue for clean energy production. Hydrogen has significant potential for decarbonizing multiple sectors across buildings, transport, and industries. This paper explores the integration of wind energy and hydrogen production, particularly in areas where clean energy solutions are crucial, such as impoverished villages in Africa. It models three systems: distinct configurations of micro-multi-energy systems that generate electricity, space cooling, hot water, and hydrogen using the thermodynamics and cost approach. System 1 combines a wind turbine, a hydrogen-producing electrolyzer, and a heat pump for cooling and hot water. System 2 integrates this with a biomass-fired reheat-regenerative power cycle to balance out the intermittency of wind power. System 3 incorporates hydrogen production, a solid oxide fuel cell for continuous electricity production, an absorption cooling system for refrigeration, and a heat exchanger for hot water production. These systems are modeled with Engineering Equation Solver, and analyzed based on energy and exergy efficiencies, and on economic metrics like levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), cooling (LCOC), refrigeration (LCOR), and hydrogen (LCOH) under steady-state conditions. A sensitivity analysis of various parameters is presented to assess the change in performance. Systems were optimized using a multi-objective method, with maximizing exergy efficiency and minimizing total product unit cost used as objective functions. The results show that System 1 achieves 79.78 % energy efficiency and 53.94 % exergy efficiency. System 2 achieves efficiencies of 55.26 % and 27.05 % respectively, while System 3 attains 78.73 % and 58.51 % respectively. The levelized costs for micro-multi-energy System 1 are LCOE = 0.04993 $/kWh, LCOC = 0.004722 $/kWh, and LCOH = 0.03328 $/kWh. For System 2, these values are 0.03653 $/kWh, 0.003743 $/kWh, and 0.03328 $/kWh. In the case of System 3, they are 0.03736 $/kWh, 0.004726 $/kWh, and 0.03335 $/kWh, and LCOR = 0.03309 $/kWh. The results show that the systems modeled here have competitive performance with existing multi-energy systems, powered by other renewables. Integrating these systems will further the sustainable and net zero energy system transition, especially in rural communities.

Bi-level configuration and operation collaborative optimization of shared hydrogen energy storage system for a wind farm cluster

Energy storage is indispensable to achieve dispatchable and reliable power generation through renewable sources. As a kind of long-duration energy storage, hydrogen energy storage systems are expected to play a key role in supporting the net zero energy transition. However, the high cost has become an obstacle to hydrogen energy storage systems. The shared hydrogen energy storage (SHES) for multiple renewable energy power plants is an emerging mode to mitigate costs. This study presents a bi-level configuration and operation collaborative optimization model of a SHES, which applies to a wind farm cluster. Different operation modes, including the ‘electricity‑hydrogen-electricity (E-H-E)’ mode and the ‘electricity‑hydrogen (E-H)’ mode, are considered. Results show that SHES system offers substantial advantages over individual hydrogen energy storage solutions. It achieves a notable reduction in annual operation and maintenance (O&M) costs by 9.5 % and a significant increase in annual profit by 10.49 %. Moreover, the SHES system demonstrates a lower wind curtailment rate of 0.24 %, in contrast to the 0.37 % observed in individual cases. SHES will play a more significant role in larger wind farm clusters. The aforementioned advantages of SHES systems become even more pronounced in larger wind farm clusters, where their impact on cost reduction and efficiency is significantly amplified.

Inclusive governance of hydropower on shared rivers? Toward an international legal geography of the Lower Mekong basin

Hydropower is now the largest source of renewable energy worldwide. The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that current hydropower capacity will need to double by 2050 in order to transition to net zero and to arrest the rise of global temperatures at 1.5 degrees Celsius. Much of the currently built and planned dams are on rivers shared between two or more countries. This raises the risk of increased inter-state conflicts. However, to exploit hydropower peacefully, the impact on local communities must also be considered. This foregrounds the need to build inclusive institutions that can mediate the different interests, norms, and values held by communities located across different scales. The article examines the role of international river basin organizations to manage this legal pluralism in shared river basins. In many basins globally, such as the Lower Mekong, the Columbia, the Zambezi, or the Senegal, international river basin organizations are tasked with the development of shared water resources. To understand to what extent river basin organizations can mediate the legal pluralism in a shared basin, the article develops an international legal geography approach to the governance of transboundary waters in an attempt to uncover marginalization and disempowerment in the process of law-making. It therefore expands the analytical scope of legal geography to the study of transnational spaces, in this case complex ecosystems for which there are no fixed jurisdictional boundaries. It then applies this approach to the case study of the Lower Mekong basin. Findings indicate that the Mekong River Commission, despite attempts to include project-affected people in decision-making, largely operates within a Westphalian framework of sovereignty to the detriment of more inclusive forms of governance. Project affected communities are largely unable to exert influence and are relegated to participation in alternative forums. These forums, or counter publics as Yong called them, are disconnected from official processes. While they give rise to marginalized voices and enable the creation of inclusive and participatory spaces, the exclusionary official decision-making processes continue to produce significant tension and conflict potential as hydropower is championed globally as a clean, climate friendly form of energy. As hydropower is set to double by 2050, inclusive participatory institutions in basins worldwide must be built to navigate complex stakeholder interests and to benefit those who are otherwise likely to lose out in net zero transitions. These findings are relevant for other shared basins, particularly across Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America where hydropower is booming. An international approach to legal geography can foreground these hidden and marginalized voices and help identify ways to build inclusive institutions for the governance of shared resources.