Net Deforestation Research Articles

Subnational assessment of legal and illegal deforestation in the Colombian Amazon: consequences for zero deforestation commitments

Deforestation has been at the heart of the transformation of the Amazon. Global concerns over deforestation and its impact on climate change have resulted in the adoption of a number of initiatives in the framework of zero deforestation. However, undifferentiated application of the concepts of zero net, gross, and illegal deforestation has revealed a lack of understanding of their scope and of challenges to their implementation. Zero legal and illegal deforestation is, in particular, a controversial subject from the point of view of regulation and sovereignty but an essential aspect from the perspective of public policy design. In Colombia, zero deforestation commitments make no mention of legal deforestation. Papers that analyze deforestation and official data sources fail to incorporate the legal dimension in their analysis. This article addresses this gap by identifying areas where deforestation is legal and where it is illegal in one deforestation hotspot of the Colombian Amazon, the administrative department of Guaviare. Our results show that deforestation has increased since 2013, mainly occurs in illegal zones, and that Guaviare department, 85% of which is covered by forest, has very little legal deforestation potential. Our findings reveal that assessing the legality and illegality of deforestation is more complex than often assumed and must become a priority, especially in forested countries where regulation on forest and land management is shared between different level of governments and institutions.

Monitoring loss and degradation of forests and shrubs in the North of Chile using Landsat time series data sets from 1998 to 2018

Deforestation and degradation are among the main sources of climate-change-inducing greenhouse gas emissions. Implementing sustainable forest management and conservation programs, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (REDD+), requires a forest monitoring system and carbon inventory to define reference emissions. Most REDD+ projects focus on dense forests, with limited studies conducted in arid and semi-arid regions where shrubs dominate. Despite diverse vegetation formations, these areas are often overlooked for their carbon sequestration potential. This study estimated gross and net deforestation and degradation of forest formation and from devegetation and degradation of shrub formation in Norte Grande (Far North), Chile, from 1998 to 2018 using remote sensing satellite imagery and projected out to 2118. The carbon equivalent (Ce) content of forest and shrub formations and their associated processes’ CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) emissions were also estimated. The results showed that the total Ce content in shrubs was higher than in forests because of the larger area. Although deforestation/devegetation and degradation tended to decrease across the study period, they will continue to affect forests and shrubs in the future, reaching a deforestation rate of 21.82 and 393.28 ha y−1 by 2118, respectively, and an annual degradation rate of 9535.31 and 255,850.65 kg m−2, respectively. Therefore, arid and semi-arid zones and shrub formations should be integrated into REDD+ strategies to promote their protection, given their potential to increase carbon reserves.

Multi-level determinants of land use land cover change in Tigray, Ethiopia: A mixed-effects approach using socioeconomic panel and satellite data.

This study examined land use land cover change and its determinants in Tigray, Ethiopia and its livelihood zones. We used socioeconomic panel, and satellite data, and applied a mixed-effects model to analyse the factors influencing land allocation among different uses, and transition matrix to analyse land cover dynamics. The results revealed that; land use choices were influenced by plot level factors (such as plot elevation, distance, soil type and quality, and land tenure), household characteristics (such as education, dependency ratio, plot size and number owned, income, livestock and asset, perception of climate change, and access to market and main road), and community level factors (precipitation, product price, population density and livelihood zone variations). Transition matrix analysis showed that between 1986 and 2016, 12.8% of forest was converted to bare land, 6.26% bare land was converted to pasture, and 5.84% of cropland was converted to forest. However, net deforestation occurred in most of the livelihood zones. Therefore, local communities faced environmental and socio-economic challenges from capital constraints induced land fallowing, land fragmentation, and unmanaged land cover change. The study recommended sustainable land use planning and management, market linkages, improved access to roads, forestry subsidies, land tenure security, and land consolidation programs.

Forty-year multi-scale land cover change and political ecology data reveal a dynamic and regenerative process of forests in Peruvian Indigenous Territories

This article explores deforestation and reforestation dynamics over 415,749 hectares of 25 titled Indigenous Community Lands (ICLs) in the Peruvian Amazon over forty years at three scales: total area, regions, and communities. We focus on ICLs as the territorial unit of analysis, as they are increasingly discussed regarding their importance for conservation. Additionally indigenous communities (ICs) are a too-marginalized group in the Amazon that merit more attention. Analyses of this kind are often short-term and use only large-scale Earth Observation methodologies. We use a multi-method approach linking remote sensing with ground verification, and qualitative historical political ecology work with ICs. We find that overall accumulated deforestation was low at 5%, but that when reforestation is considered, net deforestation was only 3.5%. At the community level deforestation and afforestation dynamics are complex, except for one period that indicates a macro state driver in the region. Results suggest inadequate accounting for forest regeneration in deforestation analyses and challenge the notion that presenting stakeholders with accumulated forest loss values is helpful in tropical areas where forests and people are dynamic. Furthermore, our work with communities highlights that categorizing them and their lands as pro-environment or not in general terms is unhelpful for determining fund flows to ICLs for environmental or development purposes.

Leakage does not fully offset soy supply-chain efforts to reduce deforestation in Brazil

Zero-deforestation supply chain policies that leverage the market power of commodity buyers to change agricultural producer behavior can reduce forest clearing in regions with rapid commodity expansion and weak forest governance. Yet leakage—when deforestation is pushed to other regions—may dilute the global effectiveness of regionally successful policies. Here we show that domestic leakage offsets 43-50% of the avoided deforestation induced by existing and proposed zero-deforestation supply chain policies in Brazil’s soy sector. However, cross-border leakage is insignificant (<3%) because soybean production is displaced to existing U.S. farmland. Eliminating deforestation from the supply chains of all firms exporting Brazilian soy to the EU or China from 2011-2016 could have reduced net global deforestation by 2% and Brazilian deforestation by 9%. Thus, if major tropical commodity importers (e.g., the EU) require traders to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains, it could help bend the curve on global forest loss.

Simulating land use and land cover change under contrasting levels of policy enforcement and its spatially-explicit impact on tropical forest landscapes in Ecuador

This study simulates the future impact of land use and land cover (LULC) change and the enforcement of policy bundles on the multi-functionality of tropical forest landscapes. It focusses on the Northern Ecuadorian Amazonas (NEA) which is characterised by high biodiversity and endemism but at the same time is threatened by deforestation and unsustainable land use practices. Scenario simulations mimic LULC change during 2016–2030 at canton-level (area: 2,146 km²) combining explorative with policy-screening components. Scenarios NATIONAL(+)POLICY, NATIONAL(-)POLICY, REGIONAL(+)POLICY, and REGIONAL(-)POLICY are contrasted by varying deforestation trends (high regional demand for agricultural products vs. national-level structural transformations) and the enforcement/ non-enforcement of policy bundles on forest protection, reforestation and restoration. An indicator-based impact assessment analysed in a spatially-explicit fashion for each scenario in 2030 (i) the evolution of agricultural and forestry-related LULC change trajectories, (ii) future hotspots of deforestation, (iii) remaining forest core zones (FCZ) as key element of habitat integrity, and (iv) the provisioning of long-term carbon sinks. Key findings reveal that only NATIONAL(+)POLICY, as the combination of enforced policy bundles and simulated national LULC change trend extrapolating the long-term reference period 1990–2016, lead to an expansion of forest areas and a 2% carbon stock gain in 2030 compared to 2016. When assuming a linear continuation of this trend, it requires 96 years to reach a similar carbon stock level compared to the reference year 1990. Farm area expansion will continue to affect protected forests in case of scenarios NATIONAL(-)POLICY and REGIONAL(-)POLICY but will be avoided in NATIONAL(+)POLICY and REGIONAL(+)POLICY. The simulated persistence of many farming areas reveals that the likelihood to reforest existing agricultural patches will be rather low. Against expectations, scenario NATIONAL(+)POLICY which assumes net zero deforestation by 2030 led to a high level of FCZ fragmentation contrasting its carbon sink potential (27,971 Mio. Mg ha−1) which performed best among all scenarios. Our study depicts a mismatch of future LULC change realities compared to the anticipated future achievements of the Ecuadorian land use policy framework. The simulated variability of forest change patterns (deforestation, reforestation) and farming trajectories (diversification, intensification, rotation) further suggests to foster more cross-sectoral policy approaches that acknowledges the hybrid role of local stakeholders who can be farmers and forest users at the same time. Our study shows that focusing on preserving carbon stocks and their long-term climate mitigation potential only while neglecting other important ecosystem functions or biodiversity can be a short-sighted policy goal if not accompanied by rural development programmes. We further conclude that scenario-based assessments should become an integral part of multi-stakeholder interactions across relevant levels of decision-making. This can support long-term sustainable land use management which is not only relevant for the case of the Northern Ecuadorian Amazons region but for many other landscapes in transition.

The dynamics of deforestation and reforestation in a developing economy

AbstractWe develop a model of optimal land allocation in a developing economy that features three possible land uses: agriculture, primary and secondary forests. The distinction between those forest types reflects their different contributions in terms of public goods. In our model, reforestation is costly because it undermines land title security. Using the forest transition concept, we study long-term land-use change and explain important features of cumulative deforestation across countries. Our results shed light on the speed at which net deforestation ends, on the effect of tenure costs in this process, and on composition in steady state. We also present a policy analysis that emphasizes the critical role of institutional reforms addressing the costs of both deforestation and tenure in order to promote a transition. We find that focusing only on net forest losses can be misleading since late transitions may yield, upon given conditions, a higher level of environmental benefits.

Forest Transition and Its Dynamics in Subtropical Chongqing, China since 1990s

This research aims to advance our understanding towards forest transition, which is about the shift from net deforestation to net reforestation over a given area during certain period, through a case study of a western city in China from 1990 to 2015. Three main contributions are made to the theory and practice of forest land management. First, this research enriches forest transition theory with a meso-level exploration on forest land change in subtropic Chongqing, which echoes the “U” shape transition rules widely observed in the Euro-American context but was found a time lag of the turning point until 2000s. Second, it intentionally identifies the subtype of forests—the artificial plantation, which is considered influential on performance of forest’s carbon sequestration but not paid sufficient attention to. Third, it adds knowledge on forest transition pathway at an intra-urban scale through the identified significance degree of forest transition dynamics, which implies that economic development matters but is less important than topography in a mountainous city like Chongqing, and different dimensions of economy impact differently on forest transition.

Additionality and Leakage Resulting from PES Implementation? Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazonia

Payments for Environmental Services (PES) are instruments which seem well suited for forest conservation. However, their impact on reducing deforestation might be weakened by negligible additionality and leakage effects; the first refers to the low variation in net deforestation rates even in the absence of PES, and the second refers to the displaced deforestation behavior to other areas not covered by PES. For the case of Ecuador, we examine both issues by assessing the historical deforestation trend of selected PES-enrolled areas and that of their adjacent areas to identify deforestation patterns before and after PES implementation. We analyze the additional effect of PES on reducing deforestation by comparison to a baseline as well as to comparable reference sites at two different spatial scales. We also analyze potential leakage effects of PES by comparing deforestation development in adjacent areas. We show that PES has achieved marginally low conservation impacts in enrolled areas with an average difference in net deforestation rates of 0.02 percent points over a period of 28 years. Overall, PES-enrolled areas depict lower annual net deforestation rates than unenrolled areas, albeit at a negligible rate, and there is also some evidence that deforestation decreased in adjacent areas after PES implementation. Additionally, there exists a statistically significant linear increasing deforestation trend in adjacent areas as distance increases from the PES-enrolled area. Our empirical results, however, raise the suspicion that the choice of PES-enrolled areas might have been influenced by self-selection.

Effects of Land-Related Policies on Deforestation in a Protected Area: The Case Study of Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary, Bangladesh

In protected areas (PAs) in Bangladesh, as policies shift from net deforestation, conservation initiatives and various management plans have been implemented to reduce deforestation and include public participation at multiple levels. However, the interactive effect of land-related policies on deforestation in PAs is poorly understood. In this study, land-use change analysis using geographic information system data was performed to investigate how policies affected land use and land cover change in Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary (RKWS), particularly the National Forest Policy (1979~), National Land Policy (2001~), and Agricultural Land Policy (1999~), using a series of Landsat images captured at different times. Our analyses showed that the total forest area increased in the 1994–2005 period when a plantation program was implemented, and also that many forest areas were replaced with noncommercial agricultural land areas in the 2005–2013 and 2013–2018 periods, when land zoning and co-management programs were implemented under different land-related policies. Commercial and non-commercial agricultural land expansions were the main drivers of deforestation, suggesting that several programs under the different land-related policies could have had synergetic effects on deforestation even in PAs. Our findings emphasize the importance of considering the undesirable effects of land-related policies in Pas, and the need to support the community for forest conservation.

Negotiating between forest conversion, industrial tree plantations and multifunctional landscapes. Power and politics in forest transitions

Increasing forest cover through reforestation and forest regrowth constitutes an essential contribution to mitigating the climate crisis, especially in the tropics. The Southeast Asian country of Lao PDR is on the brink of a forest transition, that is, a shift from net deforestation to net increases in forest area. This process is, however, contested and this article sheds light to power and politics in forest transitions and the implications for forests and people in Lao PDR and beyond. We develop a conceptual framework rooted in political ecology and critical state theory to identify visions and strategies by institutional actors that aim to transform the forests in particular ways, reflect on their power resources and synthesize three development projects from these strategies. We identify an antecedent dominant extractivist development project, focused on state-led timber extraction and large-scale land acquisitions. We argue that green development strategies that commodify forests through offsetting schemes, results-based payments from REDD+ and industrial tree plantations are increasingly mobilized to complement and modernize this extractivist development trajectory. Whereas these strategies align in their focus on land sparing to intensify agricultural and forest production, on the margins, we carve out an alternative livelihoods-based development project that supports extensive agroecological practices (including shifting cultivation) and integrates forests into multifunctional landscapes, re-centering local interests in reforestation approaches. The research therefore contributes to a more complex understanding of power and politics in forest transition research as well as a nuanced understanding of forest politics in political ecology.

Dynamics of Deforestation and Degradation of Forests in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1990 to 2018

Improving conditions to maintain soil fertility levels by avoiding deforestation would require an assessment of the contribution of forests to soil regeneration in complex and unpredictable farming systems involving alternating slash-and-burn farming. Results on forest cover over the period 1990-2018 indicate a net annual deforestation rate of 2.12% ± 0.07% and 0.12% annual degradation. The rate of deforestation is estimated mainly in relation to dense forests. Deforestation is the degradation that seems relatively important for DR Congo with relative population densities or the demand for agricultural land is greater which will lead to several consequences such as climate change, soil erosion, biodiversity loss, CO2 emissions, and natural disasters.

Assessing Drivers of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in PirPanjal Region of Kashmir Himalayas using Geospatial Approach

Global deforestation is a major contributor of CO 2 emission despite registering slowdown in the past decade. Regional forest cover change, a cause of climatic concern is attributed to increasing anthropogenic pressure on forests. Focus on drivers of forest cover change has become inevitable due to global emphasis on role of socio-economic framework in conserving forests. Keeping in view, the study was aimed to assess deforestation and forest degradation and identify drivers of change in PirPanjal region of Western Himalaya using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data of 2003 and 2013. Satellite data was delineated into different categories of forest cover namely closed forest, open forest, forest scrub, grasslands and non-forest using on-screen visual interpretation. Mapping was supplemented with extensive field validation points for accuracy assessment. Forest cover change map and change matrix were generated to assess rates of deforestation. Drivers of change were assessed through a detailed semi-structured interview schedule. The results revealed a gross annual deforestation of -0.46% and a net annual deforestation of -0.45%. Illicit felling, poverty and lack of employment were identified to be the top drivers of deforestation and forest degradation while as plantation and afforestation reassured forest growth at some places. There is a need to prioritize actions for restoration and conservation of some areas based on identified drivers to reverse the process of deforestation and forest degradation. The locations indicating negative change can be strategized under REDD+ mechanism for reclamation of forests with integrated social benefits.

The social and ecological costs of reforestation. Territorialization and industrialization of land use accompany forest transitions in Southeast Asia

Five Southeast Asian countries (Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Philippines and Malaysia) have experienced forest transitions, that is, a shift from net deforestation to net increases in forest area, since the 1990s. Climate change mitigation policies such as REDD+ actively promote reforestation, especially in the Global South, where they have been accompanied by exclusionary effects, known as green grabbing. In a regional analysis, we highlight some of the political and biophysical dimensions that come along with forest transitions in the five Southeast Asian countries, interrogating these with respect to the spatial injustices they produce. We propose to read forest transitions as a combined process of separating and industrializing agriculture and forestry – at the expense of more integrated land use such as shifting cultivation. We use the concepts of state territorialization and socio-ecological transition to analyze the separation of agricultural and forest land, an eventual marginalization of shifting cultivation and an increasing use of fossil energy carriers (that enables the industrialization of land use and other economic activities). These complex processes attenuate and compromise acclaimed benefits of the forest transition for climate change mitigation.

Recent trends in land-use and cover change and deforestation in south–west Nigeria

Land-use and cover change reflects choices in natural resource governance. Despite heavy targets on the forest and woodland, the southwest Nigeria states have little quantitative information on the magnitude and direction of land-use change across the states. This drives unsustainable land management and deforestation. This study utilized vegetation sampling and enumeration, GIS mapping and analyses of base maps and multi-temporal Landsat imageries to generate current vegetation status and time-series land-use and cover change for the southwest Nigeria. The results suggest that the woody species density in the forest plots ranges from 512 to 1040/ha with mean density of about 770.67/ha and species diversity values range from 2.014 to 2.911. The woody species in the savanna woodland ranged from 624 to 1232/ha in density and species diversity varies between 1.189 and 2.737. Relatively fewer number of trees of larger diameter at breast height in forest and low number of species per family in savanna reflect the influence of selective forest logging and woodland degradation. The study area experienced a historical net deforestation rate of − 1.1% per annum between 1986 and 2016 with deforestation rate of the primary forest at − 3.3% between 1986 and 2016 and − 10% between 2006 and 2016. Savanna woodland grew 0.8% annually from 1986 to 2016. The states recorded net deforestation rate ranging from − 2.63 to − 7.41% between 2006 and 2016. Reforestation through exotic Teak and Gmelina plantation grew at 43% annually between 1986 and 2016.

Policy Responses to Addressing the Issues of Environmental Health Impacts of Charcoal Factory in Nigeria: Necessity Today; Essentiality Tomorrow

Worldwide trebled of wood charcoal production over the last 50 years from 17.3 million tons in 1964 to 53.1 million tons in 2014 with sixty-one percent of current global production occurring in Africa, primarily to satisfy the demand for cooking fuel from urban and rural households with 2.7 billion people relying on wood fuels in the global south, while, the rural populace in Nigeria use about 80 million cubic meters of wood fuel annually for household energy. The furnaces of the world are now burning about 2, 000, 000, 000 tons of charcoal a year. When this is burned, uniting with oxygen, it adds about 7, 000, 000, 000 tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere yearly. This tends to make the air a more effective blanket for the earth and to raise its temperature. The effect may be considerable in a few countries. With Nigeria’s population projected to hit 410.6 million by 2050 and 550million by 2070 and consequently, becoming the third most populous country on our planet, and with an increased population growth rate in this part of the global village is alarming and worrisome, couple with rural-urban migration in key producing states, including Kwara, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, Kogi, etc. Whilst demand for charcoal is projected to increase in Nigeria, the availability of woody biomass is declining due to widespread net deforestation and biomass being the only energy source of choice due to large scale poverty and unaffordable prices of other alternatives like gas and electricity. While the human population naturally increases geometrically, the power of the improvements in resources goes up arithmetically leading to disequilibrium. This disequilibrium promotes a lot of crises bordering on economy, security, health, and politics among others. It is a fact that human populations tend to increase much more rapidly than the means of subsistence. Given the increasing demand for charcoal, and decreasing availability of biomass, policies are urgently needed that ensure secure energy supplies for urban and rural households and reduce deforestation. There is potential for charcoal to be produced sustainably in natural woodlands, but this requires supportive policies, economic diversification, and investment in improved eco-stoves. New advocacy and public health movement are needed urgently to bring together governments, international agencies, development partners, communities, and academics from all disciplines to address the effects of charcoal factories on health.

Forest Cover Change, Households’ Livelihoods, Trade-Offs, and Constraints Associated with Plantation Forests in Poor Upland-Rural Landscapes: Evidence from North Central Vietnam

Vietnam’s forests have experienced a notable transformation over the past 20 years from net deforestation to reforestation and expanding forests. Continued reforestation that aims to achieve further economic and environmental benefits remains a national priority and strategy. We explore the current status of plantation forests and highlight possible means to facilitate their expansion in the uplands of Vietnam. We employ mixed method triangulation to empirically explore plantation forests and their economic role in household livelihood, to quantify trade-offs between plantation forests and shifting cultivation, and to assess the constraints on plantation forest expansion in Nghe An province, north-central Vietnam. Results show that forest in the study area expanded by 406,000 ha (71.1%) between 1990 and 2016. Plantation forests increased by nearly 500% (from 32,000 ha to 190,000 ha), while natural forests expanded by 48.1% (from 538,000 ha to 797,000 ha). Plantation forests contributed an average of 35.1 percent of total household income in wealthier households and 27.9 percent of income in poor households. Switching from shifting cultivation to plantation forests would increase total household income and average carbon stock but decrease food provision. Total Economic Value would be higher for plantation forest scenarios if increased carbon stocks in plantations can be monetized. This carbon income might drive conversion of shifting cultivation to plantation forests. Constraints on further expansion of plantation forest are low external cooperation, education, market stability, and agroforestry extension services. Our empirical results inform national plantation forest development, sustainable upland livelihood development, and climate change mitigation programs to ultimately facilitate forest transition and improve the resilience and sustainability of socio-ecological systems.

How Societal Values Determine the Local Use of Forest Resources—Findings from the Rural Community Kegong (Northwest Yunnan, China)

The transition from net deforestation to net reforestation in China has received much scientific attention, in the hope that, by understanding the underlying drivers and processes, it might be reproduced in other regions of the world. The scientific literature has suggested that this process was driven by the creation of off-farm opportunities and huge state afforestation programs by economic growth. Recent publications, however, have noted a lack of inclusion of local dynamics in this analysis. We used the social-ecological interactions (SEI) framework, designed for the assessment of ecosystem services in socio-ecological systems, to trace the causes and patterns of the local use of forest biomass in a village in Northwest Yunnan. Our results suggest that societal values, in particular, are key to understanding the local resource use underlying the forest transition in Yunnan. However, societal values have been neglected, both in the analysis of forest transition as well as in social-ecological systems research, in general.

Willingness to pay for forest conservation in Ecuador: Results from a nationwide contingent valuation survey in a combined “referendum” – “Consequential open-ended” design

Deforestation is a threatening pan-tropical problem. Net deforestation in Ecuador amounts to approximately 500 km2 per year for 2008–2014. It represents not only an environmental problem but also a threat to social welfare. As social welfare depends on individual preferences, we examined households´ preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a proposed forest conservation program aiming to avoid deforestation in Ecuador. Our study presents results from a nationwide contingent valuation survey conducted in a geographically stratified random sample of 976 households across the three main geographical regions of Ecuador as well as urban and rural areas. About 98% of surveyed households consider the proposed program worth supporting. For forest conservation, the monthly mean WTP per household lies between $6.28 (dichotomous choice) - $3.17 (open-ended) depending on the method of analysis indicating a solid potential for supporting incentive-based conservation programs. Households also expressed their preferences by regions and types of forests but our results are inconclusive in this regard. Methodologically, our study sheds some new light on the causes for the well-known discrepancy between dichotomous-choice and open-ended WTP estimates. Our results may help improving social welfare by incorporating households´ preferences into the design of forest conservation programs (e.g., like Ecuador's Socio Bosque program). Currently realized payments for the Socio Bosque program are based on sound social support which opens doors to discuss amplifying the financial scope of the program by examining the role that households could play in funding forest conservation programs. Our WTP estimates provide aggregate information that could support the design of forest policy instruments.

Projected social costs of CO2 emissions from forest losses far exceed the sequestration benefits of forest gains under global change

Forest cover gains and losses occur in response to complex environmental and anthropogenic pressures. Yet the impact of forest gains and losses on the provision of ecosystem services differs markedly. Here we investigate the social costs of potential forest carbon change in Australia’s intensive agricultural region from 2015 to 2050 using spatial forest cover change and forest carbon models combined with climate and socioeconomic projections. More than 24,000 possible scenarios were used to identify the trend and lower and upper bounds of forest cover/carbon change. Net deforestation (3.5 million hectares, Mha) under the lower bound forest cover (LBFC) projection was around one-third less than net reforestation (4.8 Mha) under the upper bound forest cover (UBFC) projection by 2030. However, the CO2 emissions (1.3 Gigatons of CO2, GtCO2) from deforestation were more than double the sequestration (0.5 GtCO2) from reforestation. The social costs (up to 134 billion dollars) of the LBFC were almost five times the benefits of the UBFC (up to 28 billion dollars). The asymmetry decreased over time but persisted to 2050. This shows the markedly different social costs of potential forest carbon losses and gains under global change, evidence which can be useful to policymakers, stakeholders, and practitioners.