Neolithic Demographic Transition Research Articles

ADDRESSING THE INTENSITY OF CHANGES IN THE PREHISTORIC POPULATION DYNAMICS: POPULATION GROWTH RATE ESTIMATIONS IN THE CENTRAL BALKANS EARLY NEOLITHIC

ABSTRACTThe intensity of changes in the population dynamics of the Early Neolithic (ca. 6250–5300 cal BC) communities in the Central Balkans was addressed by estimating the growth rate values. The Bayesian approach (Crema and Shoda 2021) of estimating intrinsic growth rates by fitting different models of population growth was applied to radiocarbon dates from the Early Neolithic sites in Serbia. We explored two possible episodes of population growth based on the results of the population dynamics reconstruction using the summed calibrated radiocarbon probability distributions (SPD) method. The results have shown that, within the first episode of growth, the intrinsic growth rate mean values are higher than the estimated continental average (between 1% and 2%). The results indicate a sudden and fast rise in population size, possibly due to the influx of the new population settling in the region at the beginning of the Neolithic. Lower values for the second episode could indicate more gradual population growth due to the mechanisms associated with the Neolithic Demographic Transition and the rise in fertility.

“Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue…” Ornaments in the Levantine Early Neolithic

With the onset of the Near Eastern Neolithic during the 12th millennium cal BP, and thereafter, one can observe growing sedentary tendencies, as well a significant increase in populations and community sizes, all reflected in the Neolithic demographic transition. At that time (and even somewhat earlier in certain areas) a notable tendency for within and between community differentiation was observed, archaeologically visible through the variances in the material remains. A specific domain where this phenomenon can be observed are the easily portable items of adornment. The aspiration for symbolling and signaling at both the community level and the individual served to increase webs of interactions and exchange between communities, sometimes over huge distances. The differences and the similarities actually reflected the degree and intensity of connectivity between the communities far and wide.

Unraveling the mitochondrial phylogenetic landscape of Thailand reveals complex admixture and demographic dynamics

The evolutionary dynamics of mitochondrial DNA within the Thai population were comprehensively explored with a specific focus on the influence of South Asian admixture. A total of 166 samples were collected through randomized sampling, ensuring a diverse representation. Our findings unveil substantial genetic and haplogroup diversity within the Thai population. We have identified 164 haplotypes categorized into 97 haplogroups, with a notable inclusion of 20 novel haplogroups. The distribution of haplogroups exhibited variations across different populations and countries. The central Thai population displayed a high diversity of haplogroups from both the M and N clades. Maternal lineage affinities were discerned between several Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) and South Asian populations, implying ancestral genetic connections and a substantial influence of South Asian women in establishing these relationships. f4-statistics indicates the presence of a Tibeto-Burman genetic component within the Mon population from Thailand. New findings demonstrate two phases of population expansion occurring 22,000–26,000 and 2500–3800 years ago, coinciding with the Last Glacial Maximum, and Neolithic demographic transition, respectively. This research significantly enhances our understanding of the maternal genetic history of Thailand and MSEA, emphasizing the influence of South Asian admixture. Moreover, it underscores the critical role of prior information, such as mutation rates, within the Bayesian framework for accurate estimation of coalescence times and inferring demographic history.

Technology for Kisan Samanvayam: Nutrition Intelligibility of Groundnut Plant using IoT-ML Framework

Neolithic Demographic transition resulting the reduction of habitable land for cultivation. Hence the smart agriculture is the only way to cater higher food demand. The farming community of developing countries like India needs Kisan Samanvayam with futuristic technologies for financially viable cultivation. Technology place vital role in economically nourishment of soil fertility and crop management. In this regard we proposed IoT-ML framework for remotely assessing the soil nutrients (N, P,K), PH and early stage detection of crop deceases. Android APP which is a part and parcel of the frame work enable the farmer to have real time visual statistics of the soil nutrients, notifications and suggestions regarding to the crop management. JXCT Soil NPK sensors, PH sensors, Dual Core ESP32 Controllers, Firebase Cloud and Random Forest Decision Tree machine Learning Algorithm, Micromlgen serve this purpose. Unlike Solitary sensor for entire field, we have divided a hector into four subregions for effective monitoring local region needs. The presence of IoT with TinyML increased the robustness of the framework and results are encouraging with sandy loam soil.

Identifying the origins of obsidian artifacts in the Deh Luran Plain (Southwestern Iran) highlights community connections in the Neolithic Zagros

Exchange networks created by Neolithic pastoral transhumance have been central to explaining the distant transport of obsidian since chemical analysis was first used to attribute Near Eastern artifacts to their volcanic origins in the 1960s. Since then, critical reassessments of floral, faunal, and chronological data have upended long-held interpretations regarding the emergence of food production and have demonstrated that far-traveled, nomadic pastoralists were more myth than reality, at least during the Neolithic. Despite debates regarding their proposed conveyance mechanisms, obsidian artifacts' transport has received relatively little attention compared with zooarchaeological and archaeobotanical lines of investigation. The rise of nondestructive and portable instruments permits entire obsidian assemblages to be traced to their sources, renewing their significance in elucidating connections among early pastoral and agricultural communities. Here we share our findings about the obsidian artifacts excavated from the sites of Ali Kosh and Chagha Sefid in the southern Zagros. In the 1960s and 1970s, 28 obsidian artifacts from the sites were destructively tested, and the remainder were sorted by color. Our results emphasize a dynamic, accelerating connectivity among the Early and Late Neolithic communities. Here we propose and support an alternative model for obsidian distribution among more settled communities. In brief, diversity in the obsidian assemblage accelerated diachronically, an invisible trend in the earlier studies. Our model of increasing population densities is supported by archaeological data and computational simulations, offering insights regarding the Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Zagros, an equivalent of which is commonly thought to have occurred around the world.

The Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkans: population dynamics reconstruction based on new radiocarbon evidence

The Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkans: population dynamics reconstruction based on new radiocarbon evidence

The Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkans: population dynamics reconstruction based on new radiocarbon evidence.

In this paper, we test the hypothesis of the Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkan Early Neolithic (6250-5300 BC) by applying the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to the set of more than 200 new radiocarbon dates from Serbia. The results suggest that there was an increase in population size after the first farmers arrived to the study area around 6250 BC. This increase lasted for approximately 250 years and was followed by a decrease in the population size proxy after 6000 BC, reaching its minimum around 5800 BC. This was followed by another episode of growth until 5600 BC when population size proxy rapidly declined, reaching the minimum again around 5500 BC. The reconstructed intrinsic growth rate value indicates that the first episode of growth might have been fuelled both by high fertility and migrations, potentially related to the effects of the 8.2 ky event. The second episode of population growth after 5800 BC was probably owing to the high fertility alone. It remains unclear what caused the episodes of population decrease. This article is part of the theme issue 'Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

Stressful times for women - Increased physiological stress in Neolithic females detected in tooth cementum

We used the tooth cementum annulation method (TCA) to investigate physiological stress before and during the Neolithic demographic transition in Europe. Episodes of physiological stress are reflected as “stress layers” in the tooth cementum at an almost annual resolution. We used the TCA method to detect and count the number of the stress events for a sample of 21 Mesolithic and 25 Neolithic individuals from the Central Balkans from the period between 9500 and 5400 years BC. In accord with the theory of the Neolithic demographic transition, we hypothesize that the Neolithic individuals will have more stress than the Mesolithic individuals. Our results suggest that the Neolithic females had significantly more stress layers in the tooth cementum per year of life than the Mesolithic females. The difference between Mesolithic and Neolithic males was not statistically significant. We conclude that Neolithic women had more physiological stress episodes than Mesolithic women. The differential pattern between sexes, combined with the fact that pregnancies are one of the major causes of stress layer formation in tooth cementum, might indicate that the observed differences are mostly due to increased fertility in the Neolithic.

The past, present and future of ancient bacterial DNA.

Groundbreaking studies conducted in the mid-1980s demonstrated the possibility of sequencing ancient DNA (aDNA), which has allowed us to answer fundamental questions about the human past. Microbiologists were thus given a powerful tool to glimpse directly into inscrutable bacterial history, hitherto inaccessible due to a poor fossil record. Initially plagued by concerns regarding contamination, the field has grown alongside technical progress, with the advent of high-throughput sequencing being a breakthrough in sequence output and authentication. Albeit burdened with challenges unique to the analysis of bacteria, a growing number of viable sources for aDNA has opened multiple avenues of microbial research. Ancient pathogens have been extracted from bones, dental pulp, mummies and historical medical specimens and have answered focal historical questions such as identifying the aetiological agent of the black death as Yersinia pestis . Furthermore, ancient human microbiomes from fossilized faeces, mummies and dental plaque have shown shifts in human commensals through the Neolithic demographic transition and industrial revolution, whereas environmental isolates stemming from permafrost samples have revealed signs of ancient antimicrobial resistance. Culminating in an ever-growing repertoire of ancient genomes, the quickly expanding body of bacterial aDNA studies has also enabled comparisons of ancient genomes to their extant counterparts, illuminating the evolutionary history of bacteria. In this review we summarize the present avenues of research and contextualize them in the past of the field whilst also pointing towards questions still to be answered.

Population dynamics during the Neolithic transition and the onset of megalithism in Portugal according to summed probability distribution of radiocarbon determinations

As field data accumulates, the study of Neolithic Portugal has been receiving increasing attention recently, from material culture and subsistence to ideology. However, little is known about population dynamics. In this paper, we use a judicious selection of radiocarbon determinations to evaluate demographic phenomena within the 9.500–5.000 cal BP range (thus, starting in the Late Mesolithic) making use of “summed probability distribution” analysis. In greater Portugal, results show a negative deviation (i.e. demographic decrease) at 6.400–6.300 cal BP and a positive deviation (i.e. demographic increase) at 5.350–4.950 cal BP. These can be explained, respectively, by the impact of farming about one millennium after its introduction (confirming the “Neolithic demographic transition” model) and by the full establishment of the “secondary products revolution” in the Late Neolithic. However, individual analyses of the northern and southern halves of the country—i.e. using the Mondego river valley as an ecological-geographical divide—show rather contrasting trajectories, with scarce Mesolithic populations and a demographic increase in the megalithism in the North, whereas in the South a demographic crisis occurred at the onset of megalithism (which remains to be fully explained) being followed in the Late Neolithic by a sharp demographic increase. Further summed probability distribution analyses of radiocarbon determinations, particularly if combined with other populational proxies, will be able in the future to detect other demographic events taking place in space and time.

Redefining the age of tattooing in western North America: A 2000-year-old artifact from Utah

How people decorate their bodies provides insight into cultural expressions of achievement, group allegiances, identity, and status. Tattooing has been hard to study in ancient societies for which we do not have tattooed mummies, which adds to the challenge of placing current body modification practices into a long-term global perspective. Historic studies document the practice of tattooing among many Indigenous North American groups. While the distribution and complexity of tattoo traditions indicate these practices predate the fifteenth century CE and arrival of Europeans, the antiquity of North American tattooing is poorly understood. During a recent inventory of legacy archaeological materials from the Turkey Pen site in southeastern Utah, we discovered a tattooing implement constructed from a sumac stem, prickly pear cactus spines, and yucca leaf strips. This artifact was recovered in 1972 from an in situ midden but, until now, remained unidentified. The tattooing artifact dates to 79–130 CE during the Basketmaker II period (ca. 500 BCE – 500 CE), predating European arrival to North America by over 1400 years. This unusual tool is the oldest Indigenous North American tattooing artifact in western North America and has implications for understanding archaeologically ephemeral body modification practices. Events such as the Neolithic Demographic Transition—which occurs in many places around the globe—may link to an increase in body modification practices as social markers, as appears to be the case for the Basketmaker II people in the southwestern United States.

VILLAGE GROWTH, EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE, AND THE END OF THE NEOLITHIC DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHWEST MEXICO

In the final centuries prior to the arrival of the Spanish, the southwest United States and northwest Mexico underwent two major sociodemographic changes: (1) many people coalesced into large villages, and (2) most of the villages were depopulated within two centuries. Basic epidemiological models indicate that village coalescence could have triggered epidemic diseases that caused the observed demographic decline. The models also link this decline to a global phenomenon, the Neolithic Demographic Transition.

Early Neolithic population dynamics in the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain

In this study, we reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic of the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain using frequency of radiocarbon dates as a population proxy. The method of summed calibrated radiocarbon probability distributions is applied to a set of dates recently published in Bulgaria and Hungary. The aim is to test the hypothesis of the Neolithic demo­graphic transition (NDT) in these regions and to compare the patterns between these two and neighbouring regions. The results show that episodes of population growth occurred in both regions, which is in partial agreement with the predictions of the NDT theory. Population growth is detected, but it is followed by a bust, rather than stabilisation as predicted for the second phase of the NDT.

Early Neolithic population dynamics in the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain

In this study, we reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic of the Eastern Balkans and the Great Hungarian Plain using frequency of radiocarbon dates as a population proxy. The method of summed calibrated radiocarbon probability distributions is applied to a set of dates recently published in Bulgaria and Hungary. The aim is to test the hypothesis of the Neolithic demo­graphic transition (NDT) in these regions and to compare the patterns between these two and neighbouring regions. The results show that episodes of population growth occurred in both regions, which is in partial agreement with the predictions of the NDT theory. Population growth is detected, but it is followed by a bust, rather than stabilisation as predicted for the second phase of the NDT.

Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC). These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

Reproductive trade-offs in extant hunter-gatherers suggest adaptive mechanism for the Neolithic expansion

The Neolithic demographic transition remains a paradox, because it is associated with both higher rates of population growth and increased morbidity and mortality rates. Here we reconcile the conflicting evidence by proposing that the spread of agriculture involved a life history quality-quantity trade-off whereby mothers traded offspring survival for increased fertility, achieving greater reproductive success despite deteriorating health. We test this hypothesis by investigating fertility, mortality, health, and overall reproductive success in Agta hunter-gatherers whose camps exhibit variable levels of sedentarization, mobility, and involvement in agricultural activities. We conducted blood composition tests in 345 Agta and found that viral and helminthic infections as well as child mortality rates were significantly increased with sedentarization. Nonetheless, both age-controlled fertility and overall reproductive success were positively affected by sedentarization and participation in cultivation. Thus, we provide the first empirical evidence, to our knowledge, of an adaptive mechanism in foragers that reconciles the decline in health and child survival with the observed demographic expansion during the Neolithic.

Gradual decline in mobility with the adoption of food production in Europe

Increased sedentism during the Holocene has been proposed as a major cause of decreased skeletal robusticity (bone strength relative to body size) in modern humans. When and why declining mobility occurred has profound implications for reconstructing past population history and health, but it has proven difficult to characterize archaeologically. In this study we evaluate temporal trends in relative strength of the upper and lower limb bones in a sample of 1,842 individuals from across Europe extending from the Upper Paleolithic [11,000-33,000 calibrated years (Cal y) B.P.] through the 20th century. A large decline in anteroposterior bending strength of the femur and tibia occurs beginning in the Neolithic (∼ 4,000-7,000 Cal y B.P.) and continues through the Iron/Roman period (∼ 2,000 Cal y B.P.), with no subsequent directional change. Declines in mediolateral bending strength of the lower limb bones and strength of the humerus are much smaller and less consistent. Together these results strongly implicate declining mobility as the specific behavioral factor underlying these changes. Mobility levels first declined at the onset of food production, but the transition to a more sedentary lifestyle was gradual, extending through later agricultural intensification. This finding only partially supports models that tie increased sedentism to a relatively abrupt Neolithic Demographic Transition in Europe. The lack of subsequent change in relative bone strength indicates that increasing mechanization and urbanization had only relatively small effects on skeletal robusticity, suggesting that moderate changes in activity level are not sufficient stimuli for bone deposition or resorption.

The Neolithic Demographic Transition in Mesoamerica

The Neolithic demographic transition in Mesoamerica was a gradual process that unfolded over most of the Formative period (1800 BC–AD 200). An analysis of published records of over 6,700 pre-Hispanic burials, focusing on changing proportions of juveniles 5–19 years of age, suggests that fertility rates rose steadily during both the second and the first millennia BC. The gradual pace of the demographic transition was probably related to the low initial productivity of maize.

The neolithic demographic transition in Europe: correlation with juvenility index supports interpretation of the summed calibrated radiocarbon date probability distribution (SCDPD) as a valid demographic proxy.

Analysis of the proportion of immature skeletons recovered from European prehistoric cemeteries has shown that the transition to agriculture after 9000 BP triggered a long-term increase in human fertility. Here we compare the largest analysis of European cemeteries to date with an independent line of evidence, the summed calibrated date probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (SCDPD) from archaeological sites. Our cemetery reanalysis confirms increased growth rates after the introduction of agriculture; the radiocarbon analysis also shows this pattern, and a significant correlation between both lines of evidence confirms the demographic validity of SCDPDs. We analyze the areal extent of Neolithic enclosures and demographic data from ethnographically known farming and foraging societies and we estimate differences in population levels at individual sites. We find little effect on the overall shape and precision of the SCDPD and we observe a small increase in the correlation with the cemetery trends. The SCDPD analysis supports the hypothesis that the transition to agriculture dramatically increased demographic growth, but it was followed within centuries by a general pattern of collapse even after accounting for higher settlement densities during the Neolithic. The study supports the unique contribution of SCDPDs as a valid demographic proxy for the demographic patterns associated with early agriculture.

Long and spatially variable Neolithic Demographic Transition in the North American Southwest.

In many places of the world, a Neolithic Demographic Transition (NDT) is visible as a several-hundred-year period of increased birth rates coupled with stable mortality rates, resulting in dramatic population growth that is eventually curtailed by increased mortality. Similar processes can be reconstructed in particular detail for the North American Southwest, revealing an anomalously long and spatially variable NDT. Irrigation-dependent societies experienced relatively low birth rates but were quick to achieve a high degree of sociopolitical complexity, whereas societies dependent on dry or rainfed farming experienced higher birth rates but less initial sociopolitical complexity. Low birth rates after A.D. 1200 mark the beginning of the decline of the Hohokam. Overall in the Southwest, birth rates increased slowly from 1100 B.C. to A.D. 500, and remained at high levels with some fluctuation until decreasing rapidly beginning A.D. 1300. Life expectancy at 15 increased slowly from 900 B.C. to A.D. 700, and then increased rapidly for 200 y before fluctuating and then declining after A.D. 1400. Life expectancy at birth, on the other hand, generally declined from 1100 B.C. to A.D. 1100/1200, before rebounding. Farmers took two millennia (∼ 1100 B.C. to ∼ A.D. 1000) to reach the carrying capacity of the agricultural niche in the Southwest.