Negative Total Effects Research Articles

Analysis of Malnutrition among Children under Five Years across Contrasting Agroecosystems of Northwest Ethiopia: Application of Structural Equation Modeling.

Child malnutrition remains a public health challenge in developing countries, but a comprehensive understanding of its burden and its determinants in specific local contexts is generally lacking. This study examined the prevalence of malnutrition and its determinants among children aged <5 years across contrasting agroecosystems in northwest Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study involving 400 respondents was employed. Data were collected through semi-structured questionnaires and anthropometric measurements, complemented with focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The direct and indirect effects of the determinants of malnutrition were examined using structural equation modeling (SEM). The overall prevalence of child malnutrition, measured using the Composite Index of Anthropometric Failure, was 49%, with notable variation across agroecosystems (from 36.1% [midland with red soil] to 59% [lowland and valley fragmented]). Disease experience had significant positive direct effects on malnutrition. Dietary intake had negative and significant total (direct and indirect) effects on malnutrition, partially mediated through disease experience. Serial mediation in SEM analysis revealed significant indirect relationships between malnutrition and food security, feeding and care practices, household environment, health services, maternal diet, maternal empowerment, household wealth, and nutrition-sensitive agricultural practices. In conclusion, child malnutrition was highly prevalent and higher among children in the lowland and valley fragmented agroecosystem, characterized by unfavorable agro-climatic conditions, lower wealth status, poor health services access, and higher disease (particularly malaria) exposure. This study demonstrates the dynamics and multifaceted nature of malnutrition, highlighting the importance of considering geographical differences when planning interventions for childhood malnutrition and its determinants.

Combined effects of urban forests on land surface temperature and PM2.5 pollution in the winter and summer

The interactions and mechanisms among green space patterns, air quality and thermal environments are not well understood. This study aimed to identify co-benefits of urban forest pattern indicators (UFIs) in reducing PM2.5 on highly polluted winter days and providing cooling on hot summer days. We selected urban core areas of seven cities in Jiangsu Province, China as a study case, and obtained data from MODIS, Landsat 8, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 remote sensing images and products. The results showed that on a heavily polluted winter day, all four UFIs (area, patch density, mean shape index and aggregation index) had significantly negative total effects on PM2.5. The effect of area on PM2.5 was suppressed by LST, and other UFIs’ effects on PM2.5 were partially or fully mediated by LST. On a hot summer day, all four UFIs except patch density had significantly negative total effects on LST. The effect of patch density on LST was suppressed by PM2.5, and the effects of other UFIs on LST were partially mediated by PM2.5. This study indicated that increasing area, shape complexity and aggregation level of urban forest patches could reduce PM2.5 on highly polluted winter days and provide cooling on hot summer days.

The effects of higher-order human values and conspiracy beliefs on COVID-19-related behavior in Germany

Abstract Aim This article simultaneously examines the influence of Schwartz’ higher-order human values (self-transcendence, openness to change, self-enhancement, and conservation) and conspiracy beliefs on four COVID-19-related dependent variables. Subject and methods Using path analysis with large-scale panel data from Germany (N = 4382), we tested if the correlational effects of higher-order values as independent variables on the perceived threat of the infection event, evaluation of government measures, number of self-initiated measures, and trust toward individuals and institutions involved as dependent variables could be mediated by conspiracy beliefs. Results We found evidence of a significant influence of all four higher-order values on the strength of conspiracy beliefs. In addition, we detected effects of higher-order values and conspiracy beliefs on all four COVID-19-related measures. Self-transcendence with consistently positive and openness to change with consistently negative total, direct, and indirect effects provided the most evident results. The respondents’ country of origin and residence in East or West Germany affected all four COVID-19-related variables. Conclusion This article has shown that belief in conspiracy narratives reveals associations of higher-order values with all four COVID-19-related measures that would not have been apparent without this mediator. In doing so, it contributes to the understanding of how pandemic mitigation measures are implemented differently. The results of this study can improve the ability to develop and enforce policies to increase the acceptance of scientifically accepted efforts in better governance.

The association between consideration of future consequences and food intake is mediated by food choice motives in a French adult population.

Consideration of future consequences (CFC) distinguishes individuals who adopt behaviours based on immediate needs and concerns from individuals who consider the future consequences of their behaviours. We aimed to assess the association between CFC and diet, and testing the mediating role of food choice motives on this relationship. Individuals (aged ≥ 18 years) completed the CFC-12 questionnaire in 2014, at least three 24-h dietary records, and a food choice motive questionnaire. A multiple mediator analysis allowed to assess the mediating effect of food choice motives on the cross-sectional association between CFC and diet, adjusted for socio-demographic factors. Data from the NutriNet-Santé cohort study. 27 330 participants. CFC was associated with all food choice motives (P < 0·001), with the strongest positive associations for avoidance for environmental reasons, absence of contaminants and health motives and the strongest negative associations for innovation and convenience. Positive total effects were found between CFC and the consumption of healthy food groups (fruits and vegetables, whole-grain foods, legumes), and negative total effects for alcohol, meat and poultry and processed meat (P < 0·001). CFC was positively associated with diet quality (P < 0·001). Across food groups, major mediators of these relationships were higher health (8·4-32·6%), higher environmental (13·7-22·1 %) and lower innovation (7·3-25·1 %) concerns. CFC was associated with healthier dietary intake, essentially mediated by a greater motivation of future-oriented participants for self-centred and altruistic outcomes, including health and environment. Focusing on the awareness of future benefits in public health interventions might lead to healthier dietary behaviours.

School-Day Physical Activity and Academic Achievement: Mediators Among US Elementary Students

ABSTRACT Introduction/Purpose It is recommended that children get 60 min of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) daily. Previous research on MVPA’s effect on academic achievement (AA) is inconclusive, and few studies have investigated the relationship’s mediators. This study assessed whether cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and body mass index (BMI) mediate the school-based MVPA–AA relationship. Methods Grade 4 students (n = 4936) were recruited in 40 elementary schools from a large, diverse US public school district. Students wore accelerometers measuring school-day MVPA for 15 d across three semesters. Academic performance data were collected from grades 3 to 5, and CRF and BMI were measured in grades 4 and 5. Multilevel modeling assessed whether BMI and CRF were mediators in the cross-sectional and longitudinal MVPA–AA relationship. Stratified analyses assessed differences in mediation by sex. Results Cross-sectional analyses found that school-day MVPA had a significant positive indirect effect through higher CRF for various teacher-assigned course grades and English language arts standardized test scores (all P &lt; 0.001). Cross-sectional analyses found no significant mediation through BMI. Longitudinal analyses found that a 10-min increase in daily grade 4 school-day MVPA was associated with higher CRF with 0.16-, 0.09-, and 0.14-point increases in grade 5 math, reading, and writing grades, respectively (all P &lt; 0.001). Decreased grade 4 BMI mediated a 0.06-point increase and 0.05-point increase for grade 5 math and writing grades, respectively (both P &lt; 0.001). The total effect of school-day MVPA on AA was negative but negligible in practical terms. Stratified analyses found more evidence for positive indirect effects through CRF among females. Conclusions School-day MVPA can positively impact AA through increased CRF and (to a lesser extent) lowered BMI, but the effect is negligible. The negative total effects and positive indirect effects suggest that there are other unmeasured mediators. It remains important for schools to protect school-based physical activity given its health benefits.

Perceived psychosocial safety climate, psychological distress, and work engagement in Japanese employees: A cross-sectional mediation analysis of job demands and job resources.

We examined the associations of perceived psychosocial safety climate (PSC) with psychological distress and work engagement in Japanese employees. We also examined the mediation effects of job demands (i.e., psychological demands) and job resources (i.e., job control, worksite support, and extrinsic reward) in these associations. A total of 2200 employees (1100 men and 1100 women) registered with a Japanese online survey company were surveyed using a self-administered web-based questionnaire containing the scales on PSC (12-item PSC scale), job demands and job resources (Job Content Questionnaire and Effort-Reward Imbalance Questionnaire), psychological distress (K6 scale), and work engagement (9-item Utrecht Work Engagement Scale), and items on demographic and occupational characteristics (i.e., age, sex, education, occupation, work form, and working hours per week). A multiple mediation analysis with a bootstrap method was conducted. After adjusting for demographic and occupational characteristics, significant negative and positive total effects of perceived PSC were observed on psychological distress and work engagement, respectively (c = -0.258 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.298 to -0.219] and 0.383 [95% CI: 0.344-0.421], respectively). When we included job demands and job resources as mediators in the model, significant total mediation effects in these associations were observed (c - c' = -0.181 [95% CI: -0.221 to -0.143] and 0.269 [95% CI: 0.234-0.304], respectively). Our findings suggest that perceived PSC is negatively associated with psychological distress and positively associated with work engagement, and that these associations are partially mediated (or explained) by job demands and job resources.

The formation of small macro‐aggregates induces soil organic carbon stocks in the restoration process used on cut slopes in alpine regions of China

AbstractRoad construction in mountainous areas of China has formed bare slopes on a large scale, which has aggravated soil erosion and carbon loss, and the restoration processes have changed soil structure and fertility. However, there are few reports regarding the differences of soil aggregate dynamics and SOC sequestration under different restoration process for cut slopes. In this study, three types of cut slopes [cut slope restored naturally (CSN); cut slope restored with three‐dimensional mesh (CST); cut slope restored with galvanized wire mesh (CSG)] and natural slope (NS) in alpine regions were selected as the research objects. SOC stocks and their key driving factors were then analyzed. The results showed that CSG was more beneficial to the formation of macro‐aggregates than CSN and CST. There were significant differences in wet‐sieved aggregate stability under different restoration process, where the sort by strength of stability was NS &gt; CSG &gt; CST &gt; CSN. Aggregate size was a more important factor for SOC stocks than restoration process. The increase of SOC stocks was mainly due to that within small macro‐aggregates. RandomForest analysis revealed that the mass proportion of micro‐aggregates was the most important factor affected SOC stocks, while SOC stocks within large macro‐aggregates and small macro‐aggregates and porosity significantly affected SOC stocks. Partial least squares path modelling analysis found the particle size and stability of aggregates had negative total effects on SOC stocks, and SOC content had positive total effect on that. Overall, for the ecological restoration of cut slope in alpine regions, CSG was most beneficial to increase soil aggregate stability and SOC stocks.

A regional eco-compensation assessment framework for blue water scarcity based on the spatial effects of socio-economic factors

The conflicts between the utilization and conservation of water resources induced by blue water scarcity have become increasingly prominent. Aiming to balance the ecological and socio-economic benefits derived from blue water resources, this study proposed a regional eco-compensation assessment framework. Based on the blue water budget (deficit or surplus), the formulae for calculating the eco-compensation amount were developed. The blue water scarcity index and its explanatory variables were designed. Considering the spatial dependence of blue water scarcity, the spatial lag model was adopted to perform the spatial econometric analysis. The panel data in 21 prefecture-level cities of Guangdong Province in China from 2009 to 2018 was used for the case study. The findings suggested that blue water scarcity presented significant spillover effects. The precipitation had significantly negative total effects on blue water scarcity, while GDP per capita, population density and water use intensity exhibited significantly positive total effects. Thereupon, a modified coefficient was incorporated to adjust the eco-compensation amount to local condition, so as to achieve targeted restriction and advocate a more sustainable consumption pattern. We believe that the eco-compensation could serve as a potential tool for regional blue water management and contribute to the implementation of sustainable development goals.

The total and direct effects of systolic and diastolic blood pressure on cardiovascular disease and longevity using Mendelian randomisation

The 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) blood pressure (BP) guidelines lowered the hypertension threshold to ≥ 130/80 mmHg, but the role of diastolic BP remains contested. This two-sample mendelian randomisation study used replicated genetic variants predicting systolic and diastolic BP applied to the UK Biobank and large genetic consortia, including of cardiovascular diseases and parental lifespan, to obtain total and direct effects. Systolic and diastolic BP had positive total effects on CVD (odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation 2.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.95, 2.37 and OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.73, 2.11, respectively). Direct effects were similar for systolic BP (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.48, 2.25) but completely attenuated for diastolic BP (1.18, 95% CI 0.97, 1.44), although diastolic BP was associated with coronary artery disease (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.03, 1.50). Systolic and diastolic BP had similarly negative total (− 0.20 parental attained age z-score, 95% CI − 0.22, − 0.17 and − 0.17, 95% CI − 0.20, − 0.15, respectively) and direct negative effects on longevity. Our findings suggest systolic BP has larger direct effects than diastolic BP on CVD, but both have negative effects (total and direct) on longevity, supporting the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines lowering both BP targets.

Dynamic changes of soil microbial community in Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica plantations in the Mu Us Sandy Land

Soil microbial communities maintain multiple ecosystem functions in terrestrial ecosystems. The response of soil microbial communities to vegetation restoration in desertification environments is still poorly understood. Therefore, the purpose of our study was to evaluate the dynamic changes of the soil microbial community during the growth of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolic (P. sylvestris) plantations. We collected soil samples from five P. sylvestris plantations with different stand age. High-throughput sequencing was performed to determine the microbial community structure. The dynamic relationship between soil microbial community and edaphic factors was analyzed using the co-occurrence network, mantel test and partial least squares path modeling. The results showed that the soil microbial alpha diversity and community structure were significantly various among the plantations (P < 0.001). The number of nodes and edges in microbial co-occurrence network gradually decreased and the interrelationships between species became weak with stand age. The Available phosphorus was the most significant factor affecting the structure of bacterial community (R2 = 0.952), while the total phosphorus was the most significant factor affecting the structure of fungal community (R2 = 0.745). However, soil moisture had no significant effect on the microbial community. pH (0.73) and available nitrogen (0.91) had the largest positive total effects on bacterial and fungal community, respectively. Stand age (−0.65) was an indirect factor with the largest negative total effects on the bacterial community. Therefore, we concluded that the soil microbial community was not limited by soil moisture during the natural restoration process of P. sylvestris plantations in the desertification environment and the phosphorus utilization efficiency played a leading role in shaping the soil microbial community.

How do different types of energy technological progress affect regional carbon intensity? A spatial panel approach.

This paper investigated the spatial effects of two types of technological progress, namely renewable energy technology patents (RET patents) and energy conservation and emission reduction technology patents (ECERT patents), on carbon intensity of 30 provinces in China. Based on the 2005-2017 provincial panel dataset of China, this paper used the spatial Durbin model to analyze the spatial dependence and the spillover effects of surrounding provinces. The results first proved the existence of the spatial correlation in the carbon intensity across different provinces in China. Second, we found that the energy conservation and emission reduction technological progress can effectively reduce the province's own carbon intensity; however, this role is not significantly reflected by the progress in renewable energy technologies. Nonetheless, both types of technological progress have negative indirect and total effects on carbon intensity, thereby indicating that, geographically, they have technology diffusion effects. At the same time, the results demonstrated that technology patents play a negative role in carbon intensity. Third, by taking the interaction item between energy consumption and renewable energy technology patents into consideration, it was observed that the progress in renewable energy technologies can reduce the carbon intensity, owing to its role in optimizing the energy consumption structure of the province, but increase the carbon intensity of the surrounding provinces. Finally, based on the abovementioned findings, this paper put forward corresponding policy proposals.

Urban environments and objectively-assessed physical activity and sedentary time in older Belgian and Chinese community dwellers: potential pathways of influence and the moderating role of physical function

BackgroundMany studies have examined neighbourhood environmental correlates of older adults’ physical activity (PA) but only a few focused on sedentary time (ST). Only a small proportion of these studies used objective measures of PA/ST, such as accelerometer-assessed PA/ST, and only a couple employed accelerometer cut-points appropriate for older adults. Furthermore, although older adults experience declines in physical function as they age, there is a dearth of information on the impact of the neighbourhood environment on PA/ST in individuals with different levels of physical function.MethodsWe used data from two extant cross-sectional studies conducted in Hong Kong (China) and Ghent (Belgium) (N = 829). Participants were recruited from pre-selected administrative units stratified by socio-economic status and walkability. Moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and ST were assessed for 7 days using accelerometers and cut-points developed for older adults. Objective neighbourhood environmental attributes within 400 m and 1 km buffers surrounding participants’ homes were quantified using Geographic Information Systems data. Lower extremity physical function was objectively assessed. Socio-demographic information was collected via interviews. Total, direct and indirect (mediated) effects of environmental attributes on MVPA and ST were estimated using generalised additive mixed models and the joint-significant test.ResultsCommercial/civic destination density and number of parks within 1 km from home showed positive total and direct effects on MVPA, and public transport density showed negative total and direct effects on ST, which were consistent across cities and physical function levels. The total and direct effects of residential density on MVPA depended on physical function, and those of residential density on ST differed by city. A complex network of potential inconsistent pathways linking all environmental attributes to MVPA and ST in the whole sample or in subgroups of participants was revealed.DiscussionAccess to parks and commercial/civic destinations appear to support older adults’ MVPA in different geographical and cultural contexts and irrespective of their physical function level. By supporting MVPA, these characteristics also contribute to a reduction in ST. The potential effects of public transport, recreational facilities and residential density are less straightforward and point at inconsistent effects that may depend on the geographical context and level of physical function.

Willingness and Behaviors of Farmers’ Green Disposal of Pesticide Packaging Waste in Henan, China: A Perceived Value Formation Mechanism Perspective

Environmental pollution as a result of the improper disposal of pesticide packaging wastes (PPWs) has posed serious harm to groundwater, soil and public health. However, few studies focused on PPWs green disposal willingness and behaviors of farmers from the perspective of perceived value. Based on the first-hand data, collected from 635 farmers of grain-producing counties in Henan province of China, through the questionnaire survey method, this paper adopted a structural equation model (SEM) to empirically explore the formation mechanism of perceived value on PPWs green disposal, and green disposal willingness and behaviors were further in-depth investigated. The results showed that the action of farmers’ green disposal of PPWs followed the causal relationship, whereby perceived value→behavioral willingness→behavioral performance, and farmers’ perceived value came from the comprehensive tradeoff and comparison between perceived benefits and perceived risks. Meanwhile, the perceived benefits and perceived risks could have significant effects on green disposal willingness and behaviors directly and indirectly, among which perceived benefits (0.478) had the greatest positive total effects on the willingness, and perceived risks (−0.362) had the greatest negative total effects on the behaviors. Interestingly, there existed inconsistence between farmers’ green disposal willingness and behaviors. When faced with the choice of PPWs green disposal, the farmers were generally risk averse, which resulted in them being more inclined to take conservative behaviors driven by the profit maximization, and even showed the “powerless” state with willingness but no actual action.

Effects of Cluster Policies on Regional Innovation Networks: Evidence From France

Despite the growing body of literature evaluating cluster policies, it still remains difficult to establish conclusively their structural effects on regional innovation networks. Focusing on the French cluster policy during the period 2005-2010, this study aims at evaluating how cluster policies influence the structure of local innovation networks following network topologies that may be beneficial for regional innovation. Based on a panel data of four periods and 94 NUTS3 French regions, we estimate spatial Durbin models, allowing us to identify direct, indirect and total effects of cluster policies. The results suggest that cluster policies can result in both positive and negative total effects on the structure of local innovation networks depending on regions’ technological specialisation. Beyond the heterogeneous effects, the results also highlight that cluster policies may lead to a regional competition for the strengthening of innovation networks. This finding echoed previous research pointing out the possible ‘beggar-thy-neighbour’ effects of cluster policies.

Adult attachment and relationship satisfaction: The mediating role of gratitude toward the partner

Previous research indicated that insecure attachment, that is, higher levels of attachment avoidance and attachment anxiety, is negatively associated with relationship satisfaction. The present study investigated the mediating role of gratitude toward the partner in this association. In a cross-sectional design, 362 participants (84% female, age range 18–70 years) involved in a romantic relationship completed an online questionnaire assessing attachment avoidance and anxiety, gratitude toward the partner, and relationship satisfaction. Data were analyzed by means of regression and bootstrap analyses. The regression analysis revealed significant negative total and direct effects of both avoidance and anxiety on relationship satisfaction. The bootstrap analyses revealed a significant negative indirect effect of avoidance, but not anxiety, on relationship satisfaction via gratitude toward the partner. Specifically, higher levels of avoidant attachment were related to less gratitude toward the partner, which in turn was associated with lower relationship satisfaction. These findings suggest that it might be valuable applying gratitude interventions to clients high in attachment avoidance attending couples therapy.

Separate and Combined Effects of Estuarine Stress Gradients and Disturbance on Oyster Population Development on Restored Reefs

Disturbance combined with the effects of multiple stress gradients can produce biotic outcomes that are complex and perhaps not predictable based on knowledge of the individual stress variables. We analyzed oyster (Crassostrea virginica) colonization of novel substrate via structural equation modeling (SEM) to test cause-and-effect multivariate models posed a priori as hypotheses. We separately analyzed long-term data on water quality (WQ), canal flow, and rainfall to determine drivers of chlorophyll a for use in the oyster SEM. The best oyster SEM for adult (R 2 = 0.74) and small <20-mm (R 2 = 0.48) oyster abundances combined WQ stress gradients produced by normal canal flow with disturbance caused by extremely high flow. There was a −0.26 direct negative effect of increasing salinity during normal canal flow on the small oyster size class possibly reflecting undocumented increases in marine predators and a negative total effect (negative indirect + direct effects) of the salinity gradient on adult oysters. Very low salinity occurring during extreme (disturbance) canal flows produced large negative direct and total effects on small oysters, but no significant total effect for adult oysters. Chlorophyll a (Chl-a) during normal canal flow had negative total effects on small oysters but positive total effects on adult oysters. The effect of max Chl-a on adult oysters was strongly negative during disturbance-level canal flow. Turbidity during normal canal flow had no effect on small or adult oysters. However, during disturbance flows, the maximum turbidity had strong negative effects. Stress and disturbance from freshwater releases impacted oyster recruitment and survival, affecting the colonization and growth of oysters.

The Effects of Competition in Short Product Life-Cycle Markets: The Case of Motion Pictures

It is critically important to understand the relationship between new product launch strategies and their interaction with the competitive environment, which results in the successful introduction of new products. Deciding when to launch new products is among the most significant issues facing managers when formulating new products strategy, especially for products with short product life cycles. However, little extant research has focused on the interaction of product launch timing and the competitive market environment. This study explores the effects of four types of competitive threats on the market performance of short product life-cycle products. Threats from new products and incumbents are possible. Also, products in the same category and those in related product categories exert competitive pressures. In this paper, a framework of competitive threats is developed, and research questions are constructed and empirically tested using the motion pictures industry as the focus of this research. A set of simultaneous equations was estimated using a sample of 2,948 movies introduced in the U.S. market between 1997 and 2004. The results show that all competition types have negative direct, indirect (as mediated by distribution intensity), and total effects on the performance of a new product. For a focal product, incumbent products exert a greater negative impact on performance than new entrants. Surprisingly, products in different, but related, categories are more harmful to the performance of products than products in the same category. The results have important implications for launch timing and new product performance.

Trade linkages and macroeconomic effects of the price of oil

In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consuming economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (here, Russia and Canada) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock leading to a price increase of 50% boosts Russian GDP by about 6%. However, oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of positive oil price shocks, as economic activity in their exporter countries suffers. For oil consumers, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output falls in response to an oil price shock, while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes. Finally, indirect effects are also detected for oil-consumer countries. Those countries, which trade more with oil producers, gain indirect benefits via higher demand from oil-producing countries. In general, the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found for Japan, China, the USA, Finland and Switzerland, while other countries in our sample seem to have fared quite well during recent positive oil price shocks. The indirect effects are negative for Russia, Finland, Germany and Netherlands.

Trade Linkages and Macroeconomic Effects of the Price of Oil

In this paper we assess the impact of oil price shocks on oil-producer and oil-consumer economies. VAR models for different countries are linked together via a trade matrix, as in Abeysinghe (2001). As expected, we find that oil producers (Russia and Canada here) benefit from oil price shocks. For example, a large oil shock, leading to a price increase of 50%, boosts Russian GDP by some 12%. However, oil producers are hurt by indirect effects of oil shocks, as economic activity in their export countries suffers. For oil consumers, the effects are more diverse. In some countries, output drops in response to an oil price shock, while other countries seem to be relatively immune to oil price changes. Finally, indirect effects are also detected for oil-consumer countries. Those countries trading more with oil producers receive indirect benefits via higher demand from the oil producing countries. In general the largest negative total effects from positive oil price shocks are found in China, USA and Japan while European countries seem to fare quite well during recent positive oil-price shocks.

Attitudinal and motivational variables related to mathematics achievement in Jordan: findings from the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS)

The purpose of the present study was to examine the effects of student-related variables on achievement in mathematics. The sample consisted of 3736 13-year-old Jordanian 8th-graders who participated in the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). The participants completed a student questionnaire and participated in the mathematics test. Of the matrix of affective variables reported to lead to the variation in mathematics achievement were educational aspiration, attitude, success attribution, confidence in ability and perception of importance of mathematics. A structural equation model was used to estimate and test the hypothesized relationships of the factors with achievement in mathematics. Results from this study indicate that four attitudinal and motivational variables had strong positive total and direct effects; and two variables had negative total and direct effects on mathematics achievement. Recommendations for future research were suggested.