Negative Price Reaction Research Articles

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on metal, mining, and allied sectors in the Indian Stock Market

The paper investigates the effect of the first and second waves of COVID-19 on metal, mining, and its associated sectors stocks in India. Furthermore, the paper explores how the share price of the Indian metal, mining, and allied sectors is impacted and how it differs from the rest of the market. We also compare the effect of the pandemic waves on share prices related to metal, mining, and associated sectors in India during the study period, which ranges from January 2020 to December 2021. The share prices are collected from CMIE prowess for the sample firms. We use event study methodology to explore the impact of the different waves on the above-mentioned sectors. The finding exhibits that the first wave of the pandemic was more extreme in terms of the adverse price reaction than the second wave of the pandemic in the short term in the first five days. In the first wave, a more negative impact was on the Nifty50 index than the metal index. The firms in the metal and allied sectors experienced more negative price reactions than the metal index on the announcement of the lockdown event in the first wave. In the second wave, the impact was less than experienced by the firms in the first wave. We present the comparative empirical findings in daily and period-wise frequency to understand the effect of the 1st and 2nd waves of the pandemic on metal, mining, and its associated sectors in India. Our paper will contribute to the literature on extreme events and assist different stakeholders.

Market-based oil spill(overs): Market reactions to the energy windfall tax announcements and disclosures in the United Kingdom

We investigate the market reaction to a windfall tax regulation announcement for oil and gas firms in the UK. We find that firms subject to the windfall tax experience a significant abnormal price effect of 6.0 to 7.3 %. The effect is concentrated among large and more profitable firms. The results also show that firms voluntarily disclose more precise information after the regulation to offset the negative abnormal price reaction at the windfall tax announcement date. Evidence suggests that these disclosures are largely effective at allaying the price effects associated with increased investor disagreement. Moreover, our analyses show that firms within the same industry experience a negative spillover effect and decreased investor demand associated with heightened policy uncertainty about the implementation of windfall tax regulation. This version: February 2024

Benefits of corporate social responsibility during a pandemic: Evidence from stock price reaction to COVID-19 related news

International studies on corporate social responsibility and firm value suffer from bias associated with the endogeneity between corporate social responsibility and firm valuation. To address this issue, we use the exogenous shock from COVID-19 related corporate social responsibility announcements to investigate the causal link between corporate social responsibility and firm value. Analyzing COVID-19 related corporate social responsibility announcements of S&P1500 firms from didthehelp.com and the scores from CSRHub, the results show that COVID-19 related corporate social responsibility announcements negatively affect market-adjusted returns on the day of the announcements regardless of the nature of the news. However, the interaction terms between the firm-level corporate social responsibility and the COVID-19 related corporate social responsibility announcements are positive and statistically significant, indicating that the negative price reactions are not as severe for companies with strong corporate social responsibility performance. It is concluded that corporate social responsibility can benefit the firm in time of crisis.

A reinvestigation of the stock price reactions to announcements of Black top executive appointments

We investigate the stock market reactions to the announcements of Black CEO and top management team (TMT) appointments in light of two conflicting studies that advance competing and opposite theories. In 2021, Gligor and colleagues theorized that reactions will be negative due to racial stereotyping, and found negative mean stock price reactions for both Black CEOs and TMTs. Conversely, in 2023, Jeong and colleagues theorized that the stock market will respond positively to the appointment of Black CEOs, because these CEOs have to meet a “higher bar” to be appointed. They reported a positive mean reaction to such appointments. In our quasi-replication of these two prior studies, we find a reliably positive mean reaction for Black CEOs but an immaterial median reaction, and no marginal stock price impact to the announcement of the appointment of a Black CEO and TMT executives after controlling for explanatory factors that go outside the racial bias and higher bar theories. In light of the fragility and lack of robustness in these results, we recommend that future research in the area of Black top executives and the stock market be cautious when presenting and interpreting results.

The price of war: Effect of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global financial market

We investigate the effect of the ongoing war between Russia-Ukraine on the global financial market as financial market is sensitive to extreme events and related news. In addition, we are examining the magnitude of war effect on different country groups. Taking the event of a Russian attack on Ukraine, we use the event study method to examine the price impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war 2022 on the global stock market. In addition, we examine the cross-sectional variation in abnormal returns using country-specific variables. Further, we conduct a robustness check to validate the main results for the cross-sectional variation. We find that stock indices show the negative AARs and CAARs after the announcement of the invasion. However, the magnitude of negative return varies for different regions. The developed countries experienced more negative price reactions than emerging countries. In addition, EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) is the most affected area on a geographical division basis, whereas the American division does not show significant price reactions. Further, countries with higher GDP experienced less sell-off in their indices. We also find that the trade-to-GDP ratio negatively impacts the abnormal returns in the post-event window, indicating that countries with more percentage of the trade in their GDP have been affected to a greater extent.

Perils of limiting the coverage of mandatory pay disclosure: The Korean experience

AbstractIn 2013, Korea adopted a mandatory pay disclosure rule applicable only to board members paid above a certain threshold (KRW 500 million, roughly equal to USD 5 million). In this study, we find evidence of Korean executives avoiding disclosure through director deregistration, that is, stepping down from the board, but retaining a non‐registered executive position in the same company. This tendency is stronger when deregistration cost is low (in case of family executives), and benefit is high (in case of high executive‐to‐worker pay ratios). We also find that family executives choose pay cuts over deregistration as means of avoidance when their income loss from pay cuts is relatively low. Last, we find that disclosure avoidance prompts negative share price reactions, leads to higher dividend payouts (in case of large pay cuts) and results in smaller board sizes (in case of family deregistration).

Dividend reduction and stock price reaction in Indian market: is there a role of share repurchase?

PurposeThis paper aims to analyze the stock price reaction because of dividend reduction (DR) announcements in the Indian equity market, controlling for share repurchases.Design/methodology/approachThe sample comprises National Stock Exchange (NSE) 500 companies listed in the NSE Ltd. covering a time span from year 2009 to 2019. Using the event study methodology, the authors measure the impact of DR announcements on security prices around the event day. The authors also examine the price response to DRs at the interim stage versus the final stage and identify the factors that drive the decision to reduce dividends at the interim level versus final level.FindingsThe authors find that overall DR announcements negatively impact abnormal returns. Firms that experience stronger adverse price reaction following DR announcements resort to share repurchase in the same year to boost stock prices. The authors find that interim DRs create more negative price reactions than final DRs. Finally, firms experiencing lower levels of prior year earnings, firms with smaller sizes and overvalued firms tend to reduce dividends at the interim level instead of postponing the reduction to the final level.Originality/valueThis paper examines stock price reaction because of DR announcements of Indian firms. The sample comprises firms that reduce dividends with contemporaneous share repurchases as well as firms that reduce dividends without contemporaneous repurchase activity. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies on substitution effect of dividends with buyback in the context of Indian equity market are rare. Further, investigating the difference in stock price movement because of DRs at the interim level versus the final level is the unique contribution of this paper.

Price reaction to rights issue announcements of family firms

This study examines the effect of family control on the price reaction to rights issue announcements of publicly listed firms in Indonesia during the period of 2005–2018. The study uses agency theory, which discusses the conflict of interest between controlling/majority and non-controlling/minority shareholders. The results show that the price reaction to the right issue announcements for publicly listed firms in Indonesia is statistically significantly negative. The mean of cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) falls between –1.40% (for the Day 0 window period) and –3,43% (for the –5 to +5 window period). Further examination indicates that family control is associated with a more negative price reaction to these rights issue announcements. Specifically, for rights issue announcements of family firms, the mean cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) fall between –1,98% at announcement day (Day 0) and –5,23% for the event window period (–5 to +5). Meanwhile, for rights issue announcements of non-family firms, the current study found statistically insignificant price reactions to rights issue announcements for all the event window periods. These findings suggest that investors perceive higher agency problems among family firms where the family controlling shareholders tend to misuse and tunnel the rights issue funds for their own private benefit.

Price and volume effects around Islamic index revisions: the case of DJIM-GCC

PurposeThis study explores the price and trading volume effects around the quarterly Dow Jones Islamic Market-GCC index (DJIM-GCC) revisions and investigates whether these reactions are driven by firms' fundamentals or by investors' perception of ethical screening.Design/methodology/approachThe authors adopt an event study methodology to analyze the price and volume effects of Islamic indices redefinitions.FindingsThe results exhibit a positive (negative) price reaction for added (deleted) stocks. The authors also document an asymmetric volume response for index additions and deletions. The multivariate analysis of the cumulative abnormal returns reveals that the documented market reaction around Islamic index revisions is mainly related to the compliance attribution (withdrawal).Originality/valueThe approach allows to separate the market reaction arising from changes in firms' fundamentals from that induced by investors' perception of the attribution or withdrawal of a compliance certification. Moreover, the focus on the GCC region, where countries share the same cultural traits and perceive Islamic law identically excludes any social effect that would influence the market reaction due to cultural differences between countries.

Equity analysts' recommendation revisions and corporate bond price reactions

This paper analyzes bond price reactions to examine the information spillover from equity analysts' recommendation revisions into the bond market. We document a positive relation between bond price reactions and recommendation revisions. On average, bond prices react positively to recommendation upgrades and negatively to recommendation downgrades. The strongest reactions are observed among speculative-grade bonds. While, on average, bond price movements are in the same direction as analysts' recommendation revisions, these revisions can also lead to bond price reactions in the opposite direction to share price reactions. We find evidence of negative bond return reactions relative to share price reactions among firms that are closer to distress, especially when they have high levels of institutional ownership or discretionary accruals. The negative relative price reaction between shares and bonds indicates that equity analyst recommendations sometimes carry security-specific information.

Lottery-type stocks and corporate strategies at the turn of the month

We show that retail investors’ cyclical demand for lottery stocks, which tends to peak at the turn-of-the-month (ToM), has implications for firms’ financial activities. Consistent with the notion that the peak in demand is driven by a propensity to gamble that is associated with inattention, we find underreaction to earnings news issued at the ToM by lottery-type firms located in areas with many gambling investors. Lottery-type firms are more likely to issue bad earnings news at ToM, thus benefiting from a less negative price reaction. Similarly, seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) by lottery-type firms are often strategically timed at the ToM, conceivably to take advantage of local retail investors’ underreaction and thereby temper the typically negative immediate stock price reaction to the issuance news. Further suggestive of strategic exploitation of local investors peak in demand at the ToM period, lottery-type firms’ SEOs at the ToM are also more likely to be offered via an accelerated method that saves the direct marketing costs associated with other offer methods.

The Information Content in Bonus Issue Announcements : Evidence from the Indian Corporate Sector

The bonus issue has remained the center of attraction among researchers within the finance literature due to its puzzling nature. This study tried to revalidate two hypotheses namely, information signalling hypothesis and liquidity hypothesis in the Indian stock market in context of bonus issue announcements. Price reaction and trading volume on and around the announcement as well as ex-date were investigated during the study period (2004 – 2016). The study also measured the market depth through augmented liquidity tests around these two dates. The findings of the study observed significant positive abnormal reaction on the day of announcement as well as ex-bonus date. The presence of significant positive abnormal reaction in the pre-announcement period indicated the existence of insider trading and/or information leakages. The significant negative price reaction observed during the post ex-bonus day indicated the presence of bonus stripping practices in the study period. The study observed abnormally high trading volume around the announcement date and the ex-bonus date. The augmented liquidity tests, that is, stock’s trading volume, stock’s relative trading volume, and liquidity ratio revealed that stocks traded on NSE experienced enhanced liquidity in the post bonus issue period. The empirical findings of the research were in line with the information signalling hypothesis and liquidity hypothesis.

Wealth Effects of Retail Store Closure Announcements

This is the first study, to the best of our knowledge, to use value- and equal-weighted portfolios of U.S. retail firms to examine the stock market reaction to strategic and nonliquidating store closure announcements. Using event study methodology for a sample of 174 hand-collected store closure announcements during the period 1980–2017, we find a negative and significant stock price reaction on the announcement date. Given the highly competitive nature of the retail industry, we further investigate the market reaction for the closest competitors using a matched sample of 157 competing firms. We report a positive, albeit less significant stock price reaction for competing retail firms on the announcement date. Finally, a cross-sectional analysis shows that the stock price reaction to store closure announcements is positively associated with firm size.

A Risk-based Perspective on the Presidential Puzzle

This paper investigates the presidential puzzle (Santa-Clara and Valkanov, 2003) -- the fact that the equity premium is 10% higher in years with Democratic governments than in years with Republican governments. I find the existence of a negative price reaction after Democratic victories in presidential elections. I also establish that the difference in the equity premium is significant only in the first year of the presidential cycle and that there is a negative equity premium in the fourth year of the cycle when the incumbent Republican loses the election. Moreover, the market reaction to changes in the likelihood of a candidate winning the election is significantly different for Republican and Democratic candidates. The evidence is consistent with a risk explanation and policy uncertainty.

Pandemic Risk and Diversification

We investigate the impact of information disclosed under SFAS 131 on idiosyncratic and total stock risk. For identification, we exploit an exogenous shock on volatility expectations. We are the first to show that international diversification alleviates the post-shock increase in idiosyncratic, total stock volatility and total skewness. Business diversification exacerbates the impact of the shock on idiosyncratic and total volatility, while it reduces that on idiosyncratic and total skewness. We also provide evidence that international diversification decreases the negative price reaction to stock market crashes following the shock.

The impact of audit quality in rights offerings

AbstractUsing audit quality as our core focus, we take a fresh look at the tradability and standby status in rights offerings, and the market reaction during the subscription period in the US market. We find that firms with high audit quality are more likely to choose tradable or full standby rights issues. We also find that the subscription period price reaction is positively related to audit quality and negatively related to issue price discount. These results demonstrate an important role played by the choice of auditors in the design of rights offerings, particularly in mitigating the negative price reaction during the subscription period.

The Impact of Audit Quality in Rights Offerings

Using audit quality as our core focus, we take a fresh look at the tradability and standby status in rights offerings, and the market reaction during the subscription period in the US market. We find that firms with high audit quality are more likely to choose tradable or full standby rights issues. We also find that the subscription period price reaction is positively related to audit quality and negatively related to issue price discount. These results demonstrate an important role played by the choice of auditors in the design of rights offerings, particularly in mitigating the negative price reaction during the subscription period.

Stock market reactions to dividend and earnings announcements in a tax‐free environment

AbstractThis paper investigates the stock market reactions to dividend and earnings announcements for firms listed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where there is no tax on dividend income or capital gains. This tax‐free setting allows us to examine the tax‐based signalling hypothesis, which holds that a change in dividends does not offer important information when dividend income is not taxed. Contrary to the tax‐based signalling theory, we find a positive (negative) price reaction to dividend initiations and increases (dividend omissions and decreases). We further examine the signalling hypothesis, which proposes that dividends convey information about firms' future earnings. We find that the size of the dividend increases or decreases does not predict future earnings.

Dividend guidance to manage analyst dividend expectations

Using a sample of dividend payers from 12 European countries, we document that managers guide analyst dividend expectations to avoid reporting dividends below the consensus forecast. Specifically, we show that dividend guidance predicts (1) a substantial reduction in analyst dividend forecast optimism over the course of the fiscal year and (2) that a firm will meet or beat the consensus dividend forecast by a small margin. Managers guide analyst dividend expectations to avoid negative price reactions when reporting negative dividend surprises. Our results, which are robust to endogeneity and self-selection concerns and control for contemporaneous earnings guidance, highlight the important role dividend guidance plays in managing analyst dividend expectations.

The impact of IPO approval on the price of existing stocks: Evidence from China

This paper investigates whether initial public offering (IPO) announcements have any price impact on existing stocks in China. Using the Chinese IPO approval regime as a natural experiment, we find that IPO approval announcements have a negative price impact on stocks. This price effect appears to be a drift in equilibrium prices and is more pronounced on stocks that are more correlated with the IPO. These findings support an expectation-based downward-sloping demand curve hypothesis. We also document negative price reactions around the IPO listing day, which is consistent with the findings by previous authors. Further evidence rules out the signal effect of IPO approval announcements. In sum, IPO approvals can influence prices of other stocks by shaping the expectation of a change in the supply-demand equilibrium without actual trading of IPO shares.