Negative Net Foreign Asset Positions Research Articles

Global imbalances from a stock perspective: The asymmetry between creditors and debtors

After the global financial crisis, a reduction in global current account (flow) imbalances was observed. Still, global disequilibria as measured in terms of countries’ net foreign assets (stock imbalances) kept increasing. This paper explores the link between stock and flow imbalances. Our results show that stock imbalances are self-correcting or stabilizing in debtor countries but self-feeding or destabilizing in creditor countries. In debtor economies, the negative net foreign asset position improves the current account balance, helping to limit the accumulation of net external debt. In creditor countries, the positive net foreign asset position also improves the current account, leading to additionally increasing net external assets. The decomposition of the current account reveals that the income balance widens stock imbalances in both cases. The asymmetry between creditors and debtors is explained by the differential behavior of the trade balance, which fails to adjust in the case of creditors.

International interest rates, the current account and housing markets

Current account deficits and housing prices showed a strong positive correlation throughout the mid-90s to 2007. This paper studies the effect of a decrease in the international interest rate and in the downpayment requirement to buy a house on the joint behavior of the current account and housing prices. To this end, I build an open economy model with life-cycle heterogeneous agents, tradable goods and housing. I calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and compute the transition after a decrease in the interest rate and in the downpayment. The model is able to match the boom and (qualitatively) the cooling down in the housing market without a reversal in the interest rate, the increase in the homeownership rate, the simultaneous boom followed by a decline in non-housing consumption, and the emergence of a negative net foreign asset position.

Portfolio and welfare consequences of debt market dominance

The ability to issue debt that pays in units of the domestic good leads a country to accumulate a large and negative net foreign asset position while maintaining a positive position in equity. This debt market advantage also helps to explain the weak relationship between the real exchange rate and relative consumption. Our stylized model matches the key facts about the U.S. international portfolio, the U.S. real exchange rate, and explains nearly 50% of the observed variation in the valuation effects. We find that taxing bond market transactions increases the volatility of the exchange rate, capital flows and allocations. In contrast, taxing equity positions stabilizes the exchange rate and capital flows while having little impact on the allocation. Lastly, the paper describes a global solution method for portfolio problems under incomplete markets.

Currency Exposure to Downside Risk: Which Fundamentals Matter?

AbstractI study whether or not countries' macroeconomic characteristics are systematically related to their currencies' exposure to the downside market risk. I find that the currency downside risk is strongly associated with the local inflation rate, real interest rate and net foreign asset position. Currencies of countries with high inflation and real interest rates and negative net foreign asset position (debtor countries) are more exposed to the downside risk whereas currencies of countries with low inflation and real interest rates and positive net foreign asset position (creditor countries) exhibit “safe haven” properties. The local real interest rate has the highest explanatory power in accounting for the cross‐section of currency exposure to the downside risk. This suggests that the high currency exposure to the downside risk is a consequence of investments in high‐yield risky countries and flight from them in “hard times”.

Currency Exposure to Downside Risk: Which Fundamentals Matter?

I study whether or not countries' macroeconomic characteristics are systematically related to their currencies' exposure to the downside market risk. I find that the currency downside risk is strongly associated with the local inflation rate, real interest rate and net foreign asset position. Currencies of countries with high inflation and real interest rates and negative net foreign asset position (debtor countries) are more exposed to the downside risk whereas currencies of countries with low inflation and real interest rates and positive net foreign asset position (creditor countries) exhibit “safe haven” properties. The local real interest rate has the highest explanatory power in accounting for the cross‐section of currency exposure to the downside risk. This suggests that the high currency exposure to the downside risk is a consequence of investments in high‐yield risky countries and flight from them in “hard times”.

Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence that They Do

We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data in a strategic manner. Among those suspected are countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions or negative current account balances, which corroborates the intuition developed with a simple economic model. We also find that countries with bad institutional quality rankings and those in Africa, Middle East, Eastern Europe and Latin America release economic data of questionable veracity. Our evidence calls for models with public signals to consider strategic misinformation and for establishing independent statistical agencies to assure the delivery of high quality economic data.

Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Might

Using Benford's law, we find evidence supporting the hypothesis that countries at times misreport their economic data strategically. We group countries with similar economic conditions and find that for countries with fixed exchange rate regimes, high negative net foreign asset positions, negative current account balances, or more vulnerable to capital flow reversals, we reject the first-digit law for the balance-of-payments data. This corroborates the intuition of a simple economic model. The main results do not seem to be driven by countries in sub-Saharan Africa or those with low institutional quality ratings.

Financial Integration, Financial Development, and Global Imbalances

Global financial imbalances can result from financial integration when countries differ in financial markets development. Countries with more advanced financial markets accumulate foreign liabilities in a gradual, long‐lasting process. Differences in financial development also affect the composition of foreign portfolios: countries with negative net foreign asset positions maintain positive net holdings of nondiversifiable equity and foreign direct investment. Three observations motivate our analysis: (1) financial development varies widely even among industrial countries, with the United States on top; (2) the secular decline in the U.S. net foreign asset position started in the early 1980s, together with a gradual process of international financial integration; (3) the portfolio composition of U.S. net foreign assets features increased holdings of risky assets and a large increase in debt.

Exchange rate instability in a two-country portfolio balance model

This paper considers the question of Walrasian stability in the context of a two-country model in which gross substitutability is assumed and negative net foreign asset positions are ruled out. It demonstrates that these assumptions neither guarantee stability nor guarantee that an increase in the factors deemed destabilizing (stabilizing) in the literature will not in fact turn out to be stabilizing (destabilizing). However, it derives a condition which guarantees stability, pointing out that this condition is more plausible than certain “smallness” assumptions which have performed a similar function in portfolio balance models.

Negative net foreign asset positions and stability in a world portfolio balance model

Negative net foreign asset positions have been associated with a troublesome stability problem in flexible exchange rate regimes. In this paper a symmetrically-specified, two-country, portfolio balance model is employed to provide some perspective on this problem. It is concluded that negative net foreign asset positions do not constitute an independent source of instability. Instability can arise only under nonrational expectations or because of destabilizing speculation.