Negative Imbalances Research Articles

Win–Win Coordination between RES and DR Aggregators for Mitigating Energy Imbalances under Flexibility Uncertainty

The integration of renewable rnergy sources (RESs) into the power grid involves operational challenges due to the inherent RES energy-production variability. Imbalances between actual power generation and scheduled production can lead to grid instability and revenue loss for RES operators and aggregators. To address this risk, in this paper, we introduce a mutually beneficial bilateral trading scheme between a RES and a DR aggregator to internally offset real-time energy imbalances before resorting to the flexibility market. We consider that the DR aggregator manages the energy demand of users, characterized by uncertainty in their participation in DR events and thus the actual provision of flexibility, subject to their offered monetary incentives. Given that the RES aggregator faces penalties according to dual pricing for positive or negative imbalances, we develop an optimization framework to achieve the required flexibility while addressing the trade-off between maximizing the profit of the RES and DR aggregators and appropriately incentivizing the users. By using appropriate parameterization of the solution, the achievable revenue for the imbalance offsetting can be shared between the RES and the DR aggregators while keeping users satisfied. Our analysis highlights the interdependencies of the demand–production energy imbalance on user characteristics and the RES and DR aggregator profits. Based on our results, we show that a win–win outcome (for the RES and DR aggregators and the users) is possible for a wide range of cases, and we provide guidelines so that such bilateral agreements between RES and DR aggregators could emerge in practical settings.

РОЗРОБКА ШТУЧНОЇ НЕЙРОННОЇ МЕРЕЖІ ДЛЯ ПРОГНОЗУВАННЯ НЕБАЛАНСІВ ЕЛЕКТРИЧНОЇ ЕНЕРГІЇ В ОЕС УКРАЇНИ

The article presents the results of the study of an artificial neural network model of the LSTM type for short-term fore-casting of the values of positive and negative imbalances of electric energy in the IPS of Ukraine. The analysis of fore-casting results obtained with the help of hyperparameter optimization models and different window lengths and com-bining them into an ensemble of models was performed. Conducted research based on actual data of the balancing market of electric energy of Ukraine showed the effectiveness of using the specified models to solve the given problem. Ref. 10, fig. 3, tab. 3. Keywords: short-term forecasting, electricity imbalances, neural networks.

Tracking Retail Investor Activity

ABSTRACTWe provide an easy method to identify marketable retail purchases and sales using recent, publicly available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 bps over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalance is attributable to order flow persistence, while the rest cannot be explained by contrarian trading (proxy for liquidity provision) or public news sentiment. There is suggestive, but only suggestive, evidence that retail marketable orders might contain firm‐level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.

Development of inter-municipal cooperation as a factor in the intensification of investment processes in a region (on the example of the Vologda region)

Currently, the heterogeneity of economic space, relatively low development rates and negative trends in the socio-economic development of individual territories, and limited resource opportunities (including investment opportunities) are among the significant problems of municipalities. One of the mechanisms for solving them at the level of local government bodies is the institution of inter-municipal cooperation. The aim of the paper is to analyze the possibilities of territorial and sectoral inter-municipal cooperation aimed at overcoming the negative imbalances of the region's investment development (based on a case study of the Vologda region). The methods of cluster analysis and time series analysis were used, as well as tabular and graphic methods for the visual representation of the study results, the application packages MS Excel and STATISTICA. The paper examines the main trends in the development of inter-municipal cooperation processes in the Russian economy, identifies the specifics of the interaction of municipal entities in the Vologda region, and presents a territorial and sectoral approach to the development of different forms of cooperation based on the example of the Vologda region. The obtained results can be used by regional and local authorities in the development of investment policy, the formation of a system of organizational and economic mechanisms for the intensification of investment processes in the region. The study materials presented in the paper may be interesting for scientific discussion, for use in scientific and educational activities.

Maturity Structure of Banking Transactions and Its Role in Predicting Negative Net Worth of Banks

In this paper, we perform a microeconomic analysis of positive and negative imbalances in the maturity structure of Russian banks’ transactions. In particular, using Heckman selection models at the cross-section of Russian banks, we test the ability of such imbalances to predict the probability of the detection of banks’ negative net worth and its expected magnitude in advance (three months before negative worth detection). The estimation results show that, first, certain indicators of imbalances do offer ‘value added’ in predicting ‘holes’ in banks’ capital: taking into account these imbalances in banks’ short- and medium-term transactions with households and short-term transactions with enterprises improves the quality of out-ofsample forecasts. Second, the very division into positive and negative imbalances makes sense: the effects are in many cases found to be opposite with respect to the size and likelihood of negative net worth detection at banks. Third, a separate analysis of banking transactions with households and those with businesses is also of great importance: the effect of imbalances in transactions similar in maturity structure but with different types of economic agents is in many cases opposite in sign. The results may be useful for the Bank of Russia in identifying potentially fragile banks as part of its prudential policy.

Very-Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting for a Risk-Aware Participation in the Single Price Imbalance Settlement

The single imbalance pricing is an emerging mechanism in European electricity markets where all positive and negative imbalances are settled at a unique price. This real-time scheme thereby stimulates market participants to deviate from their schedule to restore the power system balance. However, exploiting this market opportunity is very risky due to the extreme volatility of the real-time power system conditions. In order to address this issue, we implement a new tailored deep-learning model, named encoder-decoder, to generate improved probabilistic forecasts of the imbalance signal, by efficiently capturing its complex spatio-temporal dynamics. The predicted distributions are then used to quantify and optimize the risk associated with the real-time participation of market players, acting as price-makers, in the imbalance settlement. This leads to an integrated forecast-driven strategy, modeled as a robust bi-level optimization. Results show that our probabilistic forecaster achieves better performance than other state of the art tools, and that the subsequent risk-aware robust dispatch tool allows finding a tradeoff between conservative and risk-seeking policies, leading to improved economic benefits. Moreover, we show that the model is computationally efficient and can thus be incorporated in the very-short-term dispatch of market players with flexible resources.

The Potential Benefit of Cartoon Stimuli for Depression

The possible significance of compromised exposure to positive stimuli during an individual's early childhood could contribute to impoverished positive memory development and subsequently dysregulated emotional responses to such valence of stimuli in adulthood. This could potentially explain dampened positive emotional responses of depressed individuals as reported in imaging studies of the brain's mesolimbic reward pathways. This paper provides emphasis and suggestions for a preliminary exploration of positive cartoon stimuli as a new tool in therapeutic targets for depression treatment and research that cater to a subgroup of depressive individuals who had experienced childhood trauma and stressful episodes as their primary causes of the disorder. Cartoon stimuli as a form of visual and interactive therapy may provide a compensatory and restorative component for the emotional losses and insults on an otherwise healthy childhood positivity required for normal and balanced neuropsychological development and growth. Unfortunately, such readily available resources for therapy have hardly been considered and utilized. The potential benefit of exposure to cartoon stimuli may extend beyond the method of positive mood induction and further addresses the need for both implicit and explicit comfort, understanding, emotional and situational relatedness that compensate for the lack of such stimulation during an early stressful life. Through evoking childlike positive associations, it is hypothesized that depression could reduce in severity and the threshold for activation of response to positive stimuli and themes lowered, thereby restoring negative and positive mood imbalances.

A comprehensive study about alongshore wave energy flux in the coast of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Alongshore wave energy flux (Pl) was analysed for the coast of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Pl is frequently used to estimate the alongshore sediment transport rate. Pl was estimated from simulated offshore wave parameters obtained from a validated regional SWAN model forced by NCEP/NCAR I, NCEP/DOE II, ERA-Interim and JRA-25 global reanalysis for the year 2005. It was obtained that Pl flows eastwards/northeastwards and increases irregularly from Bahia Blanca to Mar del Plata. Negative and positive space imbalances in Pl along the coast could explain the natural erosive and constructive processes detected between Mar del Plata and Punta Medanos. High inter-annual variability was noted in Pl data series computed from simulated wave parameters using SWAN model forced by NCEP/NCAR I for the period 1980–2012. Anomalous Pl values were detected in 1983, 1993 and 1998 which are in agreement with reported ENSO events. Concluding, the applied methodology seems to constitute a very reasonable alternative to study the space and time variability of Pl at the Buenos Aires coast, between Bahia Blanca and Punta Medanos.

A profitability investigation into the collaborative operation of wind and underwater compressed air energy storage units in the spot market

Abstract Nowadays, the integration of uncertain renewable resources has been accelerated, which encounters the operational scheduling of power system with some challenges for achieving optimal operation schedule. Hence, uncertain resources will be penalized if they create an imbalance in power generation. Both of the positive and negative imbalances will lead to a decrease in the uncertain resources' profitability. In the market environment, when the time is close to the real operation, the excess generation could not be sold. In some markets, the system operator buys the excess renewable generation by penalty factors. Furthermore, the insufficient generation must be compensated through buying from the spot market which has higher prices. The owners of uncertain resources want to have coordinated operation with storage units to mitigate the risk of commitment in the electricity market and to be protected from high prices of the spot market in case of their inaccurate forecasting. Hence, a contract model is proposed to satisfy both renewable and energy storage generating companies. Hence, a state-of-the-art storage technology which is called UWCAES is incorporated. The uncertain resources cannot be effectively profited of participation in the wholesale electricity market without collaborative operation. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Tracking Retail Investor Activity

We provide an easy method to identify purchases and sales initiated by retail investors using recent, widely available U.S. equity transactions data. Individual stocks with net buying by retail investors outperform stocks with negative imbalances by approximately 10 basis points over the following week. Less than half of the predictive power of marketable retail order imbalances is attributable to order flow persistence; contrarian trading (a proxy for liquidity provision) and public news sentiment explain little of the remaining predictability. There is suggestive (but only suggestive) evidence that retail marketable orders contain firm-level information that is not yet incorporated into prices.

The mining-induced displacement and resettlement: The church as a leaven and ecclesiology in context’s response

Natural resources, especially minerals from the earth, are to be protected by humanity. The church, which acts as leaven in the world is called to rise and address the unfriendly mining activities called mining-induced displacement and resettlement (MIDR). The general theory of interpretation of creation account calls for human stewardship in the world. Humans must view themselves as partners with God in preserving and sustaining the cosmos. The communities had suffered negative socio-economic imbalances. The ekklesia in this cosmic chaos is called upon to fulfil four major functions, namely identity, integration, policy, and management as a way of intervention in communities that are victims of these mining activities. This response, ecclesiology in context, is the combination of theological and social-scientific approaches to the development of practical models and strategies for the church’s interaction with modern society and its challenges.

A national‐scale assessment of long‐term water budget closures for Canada's watersheds

AbstractThis study examined the long‐term water budget closures for 370 watersheds over Canada's landmass by using 30 years' (1981–2010) data products recently produced for precipitation (P) gridded using climate station measurements, land surface evapotranspiration (ET), and water surface evaporation (E0) obtained by the Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) model, and observed streamflow (Q). The results show that 29%, 58%, and 83% of the watersheds were closed within 5%, 10%, and 20% of P, respectively. The positive and negative imbalances among the 370 watersheds are largely offset and the national scale average is −24 mm yr−1, or 4.2% of P. Water budget closures have large variation across the landmass. Regions with sparse or less accurate monitoring of P such as the mountainous region and the Arctic exhibit the largest water imbalances. Further efforts on enhancing the climate observation networks, improving spatial models for P and ET estimates, and streamflow measurements are all likely critical for a better understanding of Canada's water budgets.

Assessment of water budget for sixteen large drainage basins in Canada

Summary This study represents the first attempt to examine the spatial and seasonal variations of the surface water budget by using state-of-the-art datasets for sixteen large Canadian drainage basins with a total area of 3.2 million km2. The datasets used include two precipitation grids produced using measurements and reanalysis models, land surface evapotranspiration and water surface evaporation estimated using the EALCO model, streamflow measured at hydrometric stations, and total water storage change derived from GRACE satellite observations. The monthly water imbalance resulted from these datasets varied from 7.0 mm month−1 to 21 mm month−1 among the studied basins, which was 30% on average of the corresponding monthly precipitation. The accumulated water budget imbalance over the 7 years of 2002–2008 varied from close to zero to ±10 mm month−1. The positive and negative imbalances among the sixteen basins were largely offset and the all-basin imbalance was very close to 0. The uncertainties in precipitation, streamflow, evapotranspiration and total water storage change all contributed to the water budget imbalance and their relative magnitudes were found to vary with basin and season. In most cases, precipitation showed the largest uncertainties, which had similar magnitudes to the water budget imbalances. While improvements are noted in comparison with previous water budget studies over the regions, the water imbalance obtained for some basins is quite large, suggesting that considerable improvements in both the observation networks and models are necessary before the water budget closure can be substantially improved over this region.

Order Imbalances Around Seasoned Equity Offerings

Using market microstructure data, we study the determinants of the buying/selling pattern around seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) and their effect on underpricing. We find that the trading pattern around SEOs is slightly positive before the issue date and heavily negative after the SEO, and this pattern is distinctly different from what has been inferred from stock returns. The large negative order imbalances mostly occurred during the late 90s in NASDAQ market, where 86% of underwriters are also market makers and market depth is shallow. The abnormal order imbalances appear to be the result of underwriter market making activities. We also find that SEO underpricing is correlated with the post-issue-date negative order imbalances. The selling pressure on stock returns is estimated as 20% of SEO underpricing, indicating a significant portion of SEO underpricing is related to market making risk.

Aggregated wind power and flexible load offering strategy

Intermittence is one the main obstacles in wind power penetration, due to imbalance charges set by market prices. To cope with this drawback, demand-side participation has been proposed as a good complement that can handle positive and negative imbalances. This study suggests an offering optimisation model for aggregated wind power and flexible loads in day-ahead electricity markets. Flexible load as a storage unit can either cover wind power imbalances or recover itself according to electricity price and load curve during various hours. The proposed offering model is compared with the disaggregated operations of wind and demand response with satisfactory results.

Order Imbalance in the FTSE Index Futures Market: Electronic versus Open Outcry Trading

Abstract: This study examines trading activities before and after the transfer of the FTSE 100 index futures contract from open outcry to electronic trading. Daily order imbalance exhibits strong serial persistence in the electronic limit order market, but not in open‐outcry trading. Both excess buying and selling reduce liquidity. In the electronic venue, prior market movements barely affect investors' buying or selling decisions. Excess buy orders do not generate any price impact, but sell orders do. Positive imbalances are more strongly autocorrelated than negative imbalances. No trading elements, such as order imbalance, volume, or open interest, are associated with volatility. Moreover, excess buying decreases volatility. Such evidence suggests that the development and growth of electronic trading has changed the dynamics of trading activities in many important ways.

Do Local Residents Value Federal Transfers?

A fundamental governance challenge for federal nations is benefiting from decentralization, while addressing potential negative side effects, including vertical and horizontal imbalances. Inefficient migration due to differential net fiscal benefits in subnational units is one potential negative side effect. To avoid this type of migration, federal payments to disadvantaged subnational units, a place-based policy, are often advocated. In this article, we assess federal equalization transfer payments in Canada as an example of such a policy. Equalization is appraised in terms of its marginal influence on interprovincial migration, after accounting for the persistent relative attractiveness (unattractiveness) of provinces as migration destinations/origins. We then compare equalization to an alternative policy that directly subsidizes workers. Compared to a ``people-based'' policy of wage subsidies, our findings suggest that at the margin, these federal transfers have virtually no impact on net migration.

Lagged order flows and returns: A longer-term perspective

In this paper, we consider the large-sample relation between returns and lagged order flows over horizons of up to 2 months. The analysis is motivated by work in market microstructure which suggests that the effects of inventory control on stock returns should be discernible over horizons longer than those considered in the literature. We begin our analysis by developing a simple model of inventory effects in the presence of public information. Using mid-quote return data, we then find some evidence of return predictability using order flows, even after controlling for lagged returns, which is consistent with our theoretical setting. The relation is present only for negative imbalances and is stronger in large firms rather than small ones. Overall, the analysis is consistent with the notion that inventory control effects span several weeks.

Three major haplotypes of the beta2 adrenergic receptor define psychological profile, blood pressure, and the risk for development of a common musculoskeletal pain disorder.

Adrenergic receptor beta(2) (ADRB2) is a primary target for epinephrine. It plays a critical role in mediating physiological and psychological responses to environmental stressors. Thus, functional genetic variants of ADRB2 will be associated with a complex array of psychological and physiological phenotypes. These genetic variants should also interact with environmental factors such as physical or emotional stress to produce a phenotype vulnerable to pathological states. In this study, we determined whether common genetic variants of ADRB2 contribute to the development of a common chronic pain condition that is associated with increased levels of psychological distress and low blood pressure, factors which are strongly influenced by the adrenergic system. We genotyped 202 female subjects and examined the relationships between three major ADRB2 haplotypes and psychological factors, resting blood pressure, and the risk of developing a chronic musculoskeletal pain condition-Temporomandibular Joint Disorder (TMD). We propose that the first haplotype codes for lower levels of ADRB2 expression, the second haplotype codes for higher ADRB2 expression, and the third haplotype codes for higher receptor expression and rapid agonist-induced internalization. Individuals who carried one haplotype coding for high and one coding for low ADRB2 expression displayed the highest positive psychological traits, had higher levels of resting arterial pressure, and were about 10 times less likely to develop TMD. Thus, our data suggest that either positive or negative imbalances in ADRB2 function increase the vulnerability to chronic pain conditions such as TMD through different etiological pathways that imply the need for tailored treatment options.