Negative Evidence Research Articles

Relationship between Vitamin D and Insomnia in Older Adults

Vitamin D is one of the common fat-soluble vitamins, which can be obtained from ultraviolet exposure and intake from particular food or supplementation. Insomnia caused by many reasons like diseases or health status, would also increase possibilities of suffering from other diseases, and has a prevalence to be common among all sorts of people, especially in older adults. Researchers found vitamin D associated with neurotransmitters, oxidative stress and inflammation. Many research also suggest vitamin D are relevant to insomnia, people with low serum vitamin D concentration have a higher possibility to suffer from insomnia, after a period time of supplementation of vitamin D insomnia patients, many of them get improved, but there are no significant difference on some on them either. The mechanism about vitamin D improving insomnia symptoms is not clear, there is no determine recommended dose and duration for patient, and also not enough clinical trials for further exploration. As an auxiliary means of insomnia treatment, vitamin D may have a good performance combined with other therapies. The current review summarizes some mechanism of vitamin D, both positive and negative evidence associated with vitamin D improves insomnia symptom, and have an outlook for the future study on insomnia between vitamin D.

Development and Upscaling of a Waterborne Formulation for High‐Energy Density NMC811 Cathodes

AbstractThe pursuit of high‐energy lithium‐ion cells has led to an increase in the fraction of nickel in the LiNixMnyCozO2 (NMC, with x+y+z=1) layered oxide, a state‐of‐the‐art cathode material in electric vehicles. NMC is usually processed using organic solvents that are non‐sustainable. Nevertheless, increasing the Ni fraction entails a decrease in the electrode stability and the processability of this material in water. In this work, high‐nickel NMC materials have been subjected to water processing. In an initial stage, water sensitivity of the materials has been studied. Then, the formulation has been adapted to enhance the NMC fraction without penalizations in the electrochemical performance and compared to an organic solvent‐based formulation. The recipe developed, consisting of 93 % of NMC, has been successfully upscaled to a semi‐industrial coating line. The pH buffering has been observed as a critical step to mitigate lithium leaching and implement this process in an industrial environment. The obtained electrodes have been tested in single‐layer pouch cells using silicon‐based negative electrodes, also processable in water‐based slurries. The resulting cells provide limited cycling life due to the low cyclability of the negative electrode but evidence that it is industrially viable to manufacture high‐energy cells consisting only of water‐processed electrodes.

Memory bias beyond ego: Selective recall of positive financial outcomes

A recent experimental literature has documented that people are (sometimes) asymmetric updaters: good news is over-weighted relative to bad news. This phenomenon might be due to selective recall (SR), whereby people better recall positive evidence than negative evidence. To test this hypothesis, we ran a balls-and-urns experiment where each subject faced a box with 100 balls, each bearing a different boy or girl name (N = 448). Subjects received a prize for each ’female’ ball but did not know the exact composition of the urn. Each subject then observed 20 consecutive random draws from her urn, with distracting tasks placed between some extractions. In a subsequent incentivized memory task, unexpected by the subjects, they were asked to write down as many extracted names as they could recall. Since female draws were (exogenously manipulated) good news, SR predicts that they are more likely to be remembered, which is exactly what we found. When subjects received a prize per ’male’ ball, in contrast, they recalled significantly better the extracted boy names. This SR effect persisted even after we controlled for other factors that may influence recall in our design, such as the timing of the extraction or the length of the name. When subjects were asked to estimate the share of ’paying’ balls in the urn, however, we observed no biases at the mean level. That is, SR does not always lead to overestimation of the frequency of positive events.

Revealing intracavitary catheter positions: artificial intelligence-enhanced localization with an electrogram-driven variational autoencoder model

Abstract Background The acquisition of electroanatomical (EA) maps in clinical electrophysiology procedures typically depends on locating intracardiac mapping catheters through magnetic triangulation with external patches placed on the patient's skin. However, this configuration is hampered by shifts in the reference system if the patient moves or if the setup changes during the procedure. Leveraging the feature extraction capabilities of artificial intelligence models, it becomes possible to assess catheter positions within the atria solely based on the information encoded in intracavitary electrograms (EGMs). Consequently, a neural network model could serve as an alternative or complementary system for locating EA mapping catheters, eliminating the need for external reference patches. Purpose We aimed to create a deep learning model utilizing a disentangled variational autoencoder (d-VAE) and unipolar EGM signals. The goal was to extract the precise position of a multi-electrode catheter within the left atrium and predict the specific atrial region in which it is situated, relying solely on the information derived from unipolar EGMs. Methods The model was trained using data from 51 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who underwent pulmonary vein ablation. We exported 3D EA maps obtained with a 20-pole multi-electrode catheter, comprising a total of 40,000 unipolar EGMs with a duration of 30 seconds. Atrial geometries were segmented into 12 different areas (refer to the Figure). Subsequently, the d-VAE model was trained with unipolar EGMs to acquire encoded features, which were then input into a classifier model. The classifier was combined with atrial positions using one-hot encodings as the ground truth. The optimal architecture was selected through a grid search involving different layer numbers, sizes, and fine-tuning. For the encoding part, we assessed the negative evidence lower bound (ELBO) and Pearson’s correlation. Regarding the classifier, we evaluated accuracy, extended accuracy (indicating accuracy in predicting the region or an adjacent one), and the area under the curve (AUC). Results The best-performing autoencoder architecture presented a negative ELBO of -0.087 and a Pearson’s correlation of 0.971; and the classifier obtained an accuracy of 38.1%, an extended accuracy of 75.2%, and an AUC of 0.814. Conclusion We introduced an alternative method for localizing intracardiac catheters within the atrial chambers based on deep-learning techniques. In contrast to traditional hardware technologies, our proposed method eliminates the need for external magnetic or impedance reference patches. This approach is not limited to AF and can be extended to other supra-ventricular procedures. The results of our proposed method are promising, suggesting potential advancements in alternative systems for locating intracardiac catheters to complement existing classical hardware methods in the future.Variational autoencoder architecture

One Cue's Loss Is Another Cue's Gain-Learning Morphophonology Through Unlearning.

A word often expresses many different morphological functions. Which part of a word contributes to which part of the overall meaning is not always clear, which raises the question as to how such functions are learned. While linguistic studies tacitly assume the co-occurrence of cues and outcomes to suffice in learning these functions (Baer-Henney, Kügler, & van de Vijver, 2015; Baer-Henney & van de Vijver, 2012), error-driven learning suggests that contingency rather than contiguity is crucial (Nixon, 2020; Ramscar, Yarlett, Dye, Denny, & Thorpe, 2010). In error-driven learning, cues gain association strength if they predict a certain outcome, and they lose strength if the outcome is absent. This reduction of association strength is called unlearning. So far, it is unclear if such unlearning has consequences for cue-outcome associations beyond the ones that get reduced. To test for such consequences of unlearning, we taught participants morphophonological patterns in an artificial language learning experiment. In one block, the cues to two morphological outcomes-plural and diminutive-co-occurred within the same word forms. In another block, a single cue to only one of these two outcomes was presented in a different set of word forms. We wanted to find out, if participants unlearn this cue's association with the outcome that is not predicted by the cue alone, and if this allows the absent cue to be associated with the absent outcome. Our results show that if unlearning was possible, participants learned that the absent cue predicts the absent outcome better than if no unlearning was possible. This effect was stronger if the unlearned cue was more salient. This shows that unlearning takes place even if no alternative cues to an absent outcome are provided, which highlights that learners take both positive and negative evidence into account-as predicted by domain general error-drivenlearning.

A Comparative text similarity analysis of the works of Bernard Mandeville

Text similarity analysis entails studying identical and closely similar text passages across large corpora, with a particular focus on intentional and unintentional borrowing patterns. At a larger scale, detecting repeated passages takes on added importance, as the same text can convey different meanings in different contexts. This approach offers numerous benefits, enhancing intellectual and literary scholarship by simplifying the identification of textual overlaps. Consequently, scholars can focus on the theoretical aspects of reception with an expanded corpus of evidence at their disposal. This article adds to the expanding field of historical text reuse, applying it to intellectual history and showcasing its utility in examining reception, influence, popularity, authorship attribution, and the development of tools for critical editions. Focused on the works and various editions of Bernard Mandeville (1670–1733), the research applies comparative text similarity analysis to explore his borrowing habits and the reception of his works. Systematically examining text reuses across several editions of Mandeville’s works, it provides insights into the evolution of his output and influences over time. The article adopts a forward-looking perspective in historical research, advocating for the integration of archival and statistical evidence. This is illustrated through a detailed examination of the attribution of Publick Stews to Mandeville. Analysing cumulative negative evidence of borrowing patterns suggests that Mandeville might not have been the author of the piece. However, the article aims not to conclude the debate but rather to open it up, underscoring the importance of taking such evidence into consideration. Additionally, it encourages scholars to incorporate text reuse evidence when exploring other cases in early modern scholarship. This highlights the adaptability and scalability of text similarity analysis as a valuable tool for advancing literary studies and intellectual history.

Borderline personality disorder features are associated with inflexible social interpretations

BackgroundBorderline personality disorder (BPD) is thought to involve aberrant social learning, including impaired revision of social interpretations with new evidence (social interpretation inflexibility). However, this topic has received little empirical attention outside of specific literatures, such as moral inference or behavioral economics. Further, the contribution of comorbid depression to BPD-related interpretation inflexibility has not yet been assessed. MethodsIn two independent samples (Study 1: N = 213; Study 2: N = 210, oversampled for BPD features), we assessed the associations between BPD symptoms, depressive symptoms, and task-based measures of social interpretation flexibility. ResultsWe found that BPD symptoms, particularly volatility of identity and relationships, were associated with less revision of social interpretations with both positive and negative evidence. Meanwhile, depressive symptoms were associated with a pattern of less revision of social interpretations with positive versus negative information. LimitationsThe use of cross-sectional, crowd sourced samples limits causal interpretations. Translation to clinical populations should be assessed in future studies. ConclusionsResults suggest that inflexible social interpretations across valences may be feature of BPD-related pathology, and could be connected to symptoms involving volatility in social contexts. Future studies should investigate whether treatments geared toward increasing the flexibility of social interpretations are effective in treating BPD symptoms, especially those involving interpersonal difficulties.

ClinGen guidance for use of the PP1/BS4 co-segregation and PP4 phenotype specificity criteria for sequence variant pathogenicity classification

The 2015 American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics and the Association for Molecular Pathology variant classification publication established a standard employed internationally to guide laboratories in variant assessment. Those recommendations included both pathogenic (PP1) and benign (BS4) criteria for evaluating the inheritance patterns of variants, but details of how to apply those criteria at appropriate evidence levels were sparse. Several publications have since attempted to provide additional guidance, but anecdotally, this issue is still challenging. Additionally, it is not clear that those prior efforts fully distinguished disease-gene identification considerations from variant pathogenicity considerations nor did they address autosomal-recessive and X-linked inheritance. Here, we have taken a mixed inductive and deductive approach to this problem using real diseases as examples. We have developed a practical heuristic for genetic co-segregation evidence and have also determined that the specific phenotype criterion (PP4) is inseparably coupled to the co-segregation criterion. We have also determined that negative evidence at one locus constitutes positive evidence for other loci for disorders with locus heterogeneity. Finally, we provide a points-based system for evaluating phenotype and co-segregation as evidence types to support or refute a locus and show how that can be integrated into the Bayesian framework now used for variant classification and consistent with the 2015 guidelines.

Rats did not show evidence of prospective information-seeking: a pilot study.

Information-seeking behavior often features in research on metacognition in non-human animals; some species seek more information when they do not know the location of a food reward. Rats are known to do this in situations of uncertainty, but it is still unclear if they seek information prospectively for solving a later problem. In this study, we investigated rats' information-seeking responses in two areas that presented different cognitive challenges (N = 4). In one area, a memory task was presented in which rats could access a cue for a food reward during the information-seeking phase of a trial, but the cue was removed before the subsequent test phase. In the other area, a discrimination task presented a cue that was available in both the information-seeking and the test phases, so that it was not necessary to seek information prospectively. The memory and discrimination test trials were given in quasi-random order (Experiment 1). Rats explored in the memory task area no more than in the discrimination task area during the information-seeking phase, even after extensive training. When they were exposed exclusively to the memory task over multiple sessions (Experiment 2), they developed a strategy of exploring the available object cues. In Experiment 3, rats were found to stay longer in an area, which had an object than in other, less potentially informative areas; they were sensitive to the presence of information. Although these results did not support the existence of prospective information-seeking in rats, they do not necessarily imply that rats lack related abilities. This consideration is due to the constraints of the small sample size and the limited scope of the testing environment. Accumulating not only positive but also negative evidence would further understanding of the factors influencing metacognitive responses in non-human animals.

The footprint of a historical paleoearthquake: the sixth-century-CE event in the European western Southern Alps

Abstract. Low-deformation regions are characterized by long earthquake recurrence intervals. Here, it is fundamental to extend back the record of past events as much as possible to properly assess seismic hazards. Evidence from single sites or proxies may be not compelling, whereas we obtain a more substantial picture from the integration of paleo- and archeoseismic evidence at multiple sites, eventually supplemented with historical chronicles. In the city of Como (N Italy), we perform stratigraphic and sedimentological analyses on the sedimentary sequences at Via Manzoni and we document earthquake archeological effects at the Roman baths by means of structure from motion and field surveys. Radiocarbon dating and chronological constraints from the archeological site allow us to bracket the time of occurrence of the deformations to the sixth century CE. We interpret the observed deformations as due to earthquake ground shaking and provide constraints on the lower threshold for the triggering of such evidence. We move toward a regional view to infer possible relevant seismic sources by exploiting a dataset of published paleoseismic evidence in Swiss and N Italy lakes. We perform an inverse grid search to identify the magnitude and location of an earthquake that can explain all the positive and negative evidence consistent with the time interval of the event dated at Como. Our results show that an earthquake (minimum Mw 6.32) with epicenter located at the border between Italy and Switzerland may account for all the observed effects; a similar event in the sixth century CE has not been documented so far by historical sources. Our study calls for the need to refine the characterization of the local seismic hazard, especially considering that this region seems unprepared to face the effects of an earthquake size similar to the one inferred for the sixth-century-CE event.

Juridical Study of Judges' Considerations in Deciding Pretrial Applications

The purpose of this study was to analyze the evidentiary testing system through pretrial for the crime of child intercourse, as well as to find out and analyze the basic considerations of the judge in deciding the pretrial request for the crime of child intercourse. This research used normative legal research method which were carried out by studying theories, concepts, views and legal norms related to this research as well, empirical research was carried out by approaching facts and existing phenomena. The results of this study indicated that in testing pretrial evidence, negative statutory evidence can be called negative wettelijk. determining a suspect was obtained at the investigation stage by considering the nature of the results of the post mortem et repertum, the judge can use this evidence as one of the pieces of evidence to designate someone as a suspect. As for the recommendation that law enforcement officers, especially judges, in making decisions, must be guided by the Criminal Procedure Code and the Constitutional Court Decision Number 21/PUU-XII/2014

Studying negative evidence in Finnish language corpora

This study explores the relationship between lower-than-expected frequencies of word forms and inherent gaps in Finnish inflectional paradigms. The research aims to determine whether it is possible to predict paradigmatic gaps from lower-than-expected frequencies of word forms. We examined Finnish nouns inflected in a marginal case (the instructive) and hypothesized that some of these nouns may potentially have gaps in their inflectional paradigms. However, we found that such gaps are contingent and do not cause uncertainty when filled. We find that the correlation between inherent gaps and lower frequencies is one-directional: predicting inherent gaps from lower-than-expected frequencies is problematic. The results suggest that any paradigmatic gap suggested by corpus frequency is more likely to be contingent than inherent, and that the less semantic need there is for a particular word form, the more likely it will be unattested even in a large corpus. The research highlights the importance of considering semantic profiles when analyzing the grammaticality of word forms and suggests that statistical tests like Fisher’s exact are not necessarily the right approach to tackle the problem of negative evidence in corpus studies.

Neural mechanisms to incorporate visual counterevidence in self-movement estimation

In selecting appropriate behaviors, animals should weigh sensory evidence both for and against specific beliefs about the world. For instance, animals measure optic flow to estimate and control their own rotation. However, existing models of flow detection can be spuriously triggered by visual motion created by objects moving in the world. Here, we show that stationary patterns on the retina, which constitute evidence against observer rotation, suppress inappropriate stabilizing rotational behavior in the fruit fly Drosophila. In silico experiments show that artificial neural networks (ANNs) that are optimized to distinguish observer movement from external object motion similarly detect stationarity and incorporate negative evidence. Employing neural measurements and genetic manipulations, we identified components of the circuitry for stationary pattern detection, which runs parallel to the fly's local motion and optic-flow detectors. Our results show how the fly brain incorporates negative evidence to improve heading stability, exemplifying how a compact brain exploits geometrical constraints of the visual world.

The Eighth Wonder of the World in New Zealand: Seismic studies confirm the new Hochstetter paradigm

<p>The most famous tourist attractions in the southern hemisphere, in the nineteenth century were the Pink and White Terraces—New Zealand’s lost Eighth Wonder of the World. They were assumed lost in an1886 eruption. The unpublished 2018 data from passive seismic stations across the Lake Rotomahana overflow in the Taupō Volcanic Zone are examined for evidence of acoustic interfaces that may be traced to Te Tarata, the White Terraces, the stations were coincidentally placed over the reported course of the Kaiwaka Channel buried in the 1886 Tarawera eruption. There was no seismic evidence of the Channel at the reported altitude under either the Smith-Keam or Hochstetter paradigms. This absence is strong empirical negative evidence that the Kaiwaka Channel did not flow beneath today’s Lake Rotomahana overflow, as has been assumed since 1886 under the Smith-Keam paradigm. Unlike the seismic and GPR Black Terrace Crater and Te Tuhi’s Stream (aka Black Terrace Stream) bed evidence obtained by the same 2018 survey—there is no evidence of a pre-1886 eruption paleochannel beneath today’s overflow saddle at the lake and at the Kaiwaka altitude under the 1886 Smith-Keam paradigm or the contemporary Hochstetter paradigm, the latter based upon Hochstetter’s unique terrestrial survey of the Rotomahana Basin. The study reports strong empirical evidence contradicting the assumed Kaiwaka location and with it, the assumed locations of old Lake Rotomahana and the Pink and White Terraces. The Smith-Keam paradigm is thereby confounded. The seismic data provide concomitant empirical evidence for the Rotomahana altimetry and topography reported by Bunn and Nolden, who locate the Kaiwaka Channel 440 m west of the seismic stations. The Pink and White Terraces can no longer be assumed destroyed. They may yet be explored and recovered.</p>

Does word flickering improve reading? Negative evidence from four experiments using low and high frequencies.

Does word flickering facilitate reading? Despite a lack of scientific evidence, flickering glasses and lamps for dyslexia are being marketed in various countries. We conducted four experiments to assess their efficacy. Two experiments involved a computerized lexical decision task with constant display or low-frequency flickering (10 or 15 Hz). Among 375 regular adult readers, flicker noticeably slowed down word recognition, while slightly biasing the decision towards pseudowords. No significant effect was observed in 20 dyslexic children. In 22 dyslexic children, we also evaluated the impact of the Lexilight lamp and Lexilens glasses, which operate at higher frequencies, on reading fluency, letter identification and mirror letter processing. No detectable impact was observed. Lastly, in two participants who claimed to benefit from flickering glasses, we orthogonally manipulated whether the glasses were actually on, and whether the participant thought they were on. Only a small placebo effect was noted in one participant. Our findings starkly contrast with marketing claims that these tools can help 90% of dyslexics, and emphasize the role of rigorous scientific research in empowering dyslexic individuals to make informed decisions.

A conservative approach to leveraging external evidence for effective clinical trial design.

Prior probabilities of clinical hypotheses are not systematically used for clinical trial design yet, due to a concern that poor priors may lead to poor decisions. To address this concern, a conservative approach to Bayesian trial design is illustrated here, requiring that the operational characteristics of the primary trial outcome are stronger than the prior. This approach is complementary to current Bayesian design methods, in that it insures against prior-data conflict by defining a sample size commensurate to a discrete design prior. This approach is ethical, in that it requires designs appropriate to achieving pre-specified levels of clinical equipoise imbalance. Practical examples are discussed, illustrating design of trials with binary or time to event endpoints. Moderate increases in phase II study sample size are shown to deliver strong levels of overall evidence for go/no-go clinical development decisions. Levels of negative evidence provided by group sequential confirmatory designs are found negligible, highlighting the importance of complementing efficacy boundaries with non-binding futility criteria.

Self supervised learning and the poverty of the stimulus

Diathesis alternations are the possible expressions of the arguments of verbs in different, systematically related subcategorization frames. Semantically similar verbs such as spill and spray can behave differently with respect to the alternations they can participate in. For example one can “spill/spray water on the plant”, but while one can “spray the plant with water”, it is odd to say “spill the plant with water”. “Spray” is a verb which can alternate between syntactic frames while “spill” is not alternating. How human speakers learn the difference between such verbs is not clearly understood, because the primary linguistic data (PLD) they receive does not appear sufficient to infer the knowledge required for adult competence. More generally the poverty of the stimulus (POS) hypothesis states that the PLD is not sufficient for a learner to infer full adult competence of language. That is, learning relies on prior constraints introduced by the language faculty. We tested state-of-the-art machine learning models trained by self supervision, and found some evidence that they could in fact learn the correct pattern of acceptability judgement in the locative alternation. However, we argued that this was partially a result of fine-tuning which introduced negative evidence into the learning data, which facilitated shortcut learning. Large language models (LLMs) cannot learn some linguistic facts from normal language data, but they can compensate to some extent by learning spurious correlated features when negative feedback is introduced during the training cycle.

Revisiting the effectiveness of HOPE/swift‐certain‐fair supervision programs: A meta‐analytic review

AbstractResearch SummaryOriginated nearly two decades ago in Hawaii by Judge Steven Alm, a community supervision‐court model known as “Project HOPE” proposed to reduce probation failure by responding to violations with immediate but short jail terms. Despite negative evidence from Lattimore and colleagues’ 2016 Demonstration Field Experiment (DFE) across four locations, advocates continued to trumpet programs based on Project HOPE's core principles of swift, certain, and fair (SCF) sanctions, arguing that these deterrence‐oriented interventions—now known under the acronym SCF programs–reduce recidivism. To assess this claim, a meta‐analysis was conducted of 18 studies reporting on 24 separate evaluations of programs falling under the Project HOPE/SCF umbrella. The analysis revealed that the intervention had a statistically significant but substantively small impact on recidivism (the main overall effect = −.058). Moderator analyses revealed weak to null findings across variations in methodological and HOPE/SCF program characteristics.Policy ImplicationsAt present, evaluation evidence is weak and not robust enough to support the continued government funding and implementation of SCF programs in their current form on grounds of recidivism reduction. Such deterrence‐oriented programs may be based on a flawed theory of recidivism that fails to identify criminogenic risk factors for change. SCF programs might prove more effective if integrated with treatment modalities, though this remains to be demonstrated. More broadly, a range of community supervision approaches now exist that emphasize building relationships with individuals under supervision and guiding their prosocial development. These alternatives might offer a more promising avenue for reform than current programs based on SCF principles.

Experimentation in Endogenous Organizations

Abstract We study policy experimentation in organizations with endogenous membership. An organization decides when to stop a policy experiment based on its results. As information arrives, agents update their beliefs, and enter or leave the organization based on their expected flow payoffs. Unsuccessful experiments make all agents more pessimistic, but also drive out conservative members. We identify sufficient conditions under which the latter effect dominates, leading to excessive experimentation. In fact, the organization may experiment forever in the face of mounting negative evidence. Ex post heterogeneous payoffs exacerbate the problem, as optimists can join forces with guaranteed winners. Control by shareholders who own all future payoffs, however, can have a corrective effect. Our results contrast with models of collective experimentation with fixed membership, in which under-experimentation is the typical outcome.

Interval-based reasoning over continuous variables using independent component analysis and Bayesian networks

Bayesian networks (BNs) can be used for probabilistic reasoning over discrete variables. Their extension to the continuous domain, however, remains an open research issue. In this work, we address the Bayesian inference problem for continuous variables when negative evidence is available. This situation is faced when, because of unreliable or imperfect sensors, some variables are observed to be at specific intervals. We propose two solutions to this issue. The first one, dubbed dynamic discrete BN (DD-BN), is simply an adaptation of the dynamic discretization method; the second, referred to as SICA, is based on spline functions and the independent component analysis (ICA) method. SICA can represent a wide range of general multivariate distributions and possesses some integration characteristics that facilitate the inference process. Empirical trials on public datasets and simulated data yielded promising results regarding inference time and accuracy. Indeed, SICA achieved the highest accuracy at the expense of increased inference time with increasing dimensions.