Negative Binomial Hurdle Model Research Articles

Lower Admission Prealbumin and Albumin Levels in Unhoused Burn Patients is a Marker for Poorer Outcomes.

Unhoused (UH) individuals experience burn injuries at a higher rate than domiciled individuals, and have poorer outcomes following injuries. One such mechanism proposed for worsened outcomes is secondary to poor nutrition. Access to proper nutrition and food insecurity are major barriers. Malnutrition has been shown to decrease wound tensile strength, increase infection rates, and prolong healing. The purpose of this study was to understand if albumin and prealbumin could help determine outcomes in UH patients and identify at-risk patients earlier in their hospital course A retrospective chart review was conducted of UH patients from 2015 through 2023 at a large urban safety net hospital. Data collected included admission laboratory values including albumin and prealbumin. Outcomes studied included length of stay, ICU days, ventilator days, and mortality. Data analysis for the effect of albumin and prealbumin included a zero-truncated negative binomial model for length of stay, a negative binomial hurdle model for ICU length of stay and ventilator days, and logistic regression for mortality. 385 patients met inclusion criteria and of these, 366 had albumin and 361 had prealbumin information. Adjusting for age, gender, and TBSA, the fewest days in the hospital and lowest odds of admission to the ICU occurred for those with admission albumin values of approximately 3.4-3.5g/dL. Each unit (g/dL) decrease in albumin was associated with 3.19 times the odds of death (95% CI 1.42, 7.69). Each unit (mg/dL) decrease in prealbumin was associated with 1.19 times the odds of death (95% CI 1.06, 1.35). Decreased admission albumin and prealbumin levels are associated with worse burn outcomes in UH patients. These nutritional biomarkers may aid in determining which UH patients are suffering from food insecurity at injury onset. Obtaining these values on admission may help burn providers target nutritional goals in their most vulnerable patients.

Analysis of the elderly pedestrian traffic accidents in urban scenarios: the case of the Spanish municipalities

As the elderly population grows, there is a greater concern for their safety on the roads. This is particularly important for elderly pedestrians who are more vulnerable to accidents. In Spain, one of the most aged countries in the world, the elderly accounted for 70% of all pedestrian deaths in 2019. In this study, the focus was on analysing the occurrence of elderly pedestrian-vehicle collisions in Spanish municipalities and how it is related to the built environment. The study used the hurdle negative binomial model to analyse the number of elderly and non-elderly pedestrian accidents per municipality in 2016-2019. The exploratory analysis showed that cities above 50,000 inhabitants were safer for the elderly, and larger provincial capitals had lower elderly pedestrian traffic accident rates. The occurrence of all pedestrian traffic accidents was linked to the socio-demographic features. For elderly pedestrians, land use was found to be influential, with a lower proportion of land covered by manufacturing and service activities linked to a smaller number of accidents. Results showed that improving road safety for older pedestrians may not necessarily compromise the situation for the rest of population. Hence, policymakers should focus on infrastructure improvements adapted to the needs of elderly pedestrians.

Changes in Parent-Student Text Message and Phone Call Communication During the Transition to College as Predictors of Cannabis and Simultaneous Use During the First Year

Parent communication can be protective against cannabis use among young adults. However, changes in parent-student communication frequency naturally occur during the transition from high school to college. Recent research suggests declines in parent-student communication frequency predict increased drinking and consequences during the first year of college, yet these effects on other risky behaviors are unknown. The current study investigated whether post-matriculation changes in frequency of texting/calling with parents predict cannabis use and simultaneous use of cannabis and alcohol, and whether pre-matriculation cannabis and simultaneous use predict changes in communication. First-year students (N = 287, 61.3% female, 50.9% White) reported cannabis and simultaneous use pre- and post-matriculation (T1 & T3) and changes in frequency of texting/calling their mother/father per day (T2). Negative binomial hurdle models examined whether T2 changes in communication frequency predicted T3 cannabis and simultaneous use, and logistic regression models examined whether T1 cannabis and simultaneous use predicted T2 changes in communication frequency. Results revealed that increasing (vs. decreasing) frequency of calling with mothers and texting with fathers was protective against cannabis use, whereas increasing frequency of calling with fathers was associated with greater risk of use. Changes in communication did not significantly predict simultaneous use, nor did pre-matriculation cannabis or simultaneous use predict changes in either mode of communication with parents during the college transition. These findings highlight that changes in mother and father communication may be both beneficial and detrimental to cannabis use depending on the parent and mode of communication. Implications for these findings are discussed.

The association between serum vitamin D status and dental caries or molar incisor hypomineralisation in 7–9-year-old Norwegian children: a cross-sectional study

BackgroundResearch focusing on the association between serum vitamin D and oral health outcomes in children, such as dental caries and molar incisor hypomineralisation (MIH), shows inconsistent results. Previous studies have predominantly investigated dental caries and MIH as dichotomized outcomes, which limits the information on their distribution. In addition, the methods used for analysing serum vitamin D have varied. The present study aimed to investigate potential associations between serum vitamin D status measured by Liquid Chromatography with Tandem Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) and the prevalence, as well as the number of teeth, affected by dental caries or MIH among 7–9-year-old Norwegian children.MethodsThe study had a cross-sectional design and included 101 children aged 7–9 years. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) was measured and included as continuous (per 25 nmol/l) and categorised (insufficient (< 50 nmol/l) and sufficient (≥50 nmol/l)) exposure variables. Adjusted negative binomial hurdle models were used to investigate the potential associations between serum vitamin D and the oral health outcomes (dental caries and MIH) adjusted for sex, age, body mass index, season of blood draw, and mother’s educational level.ResultsOf the 101 children in the total sample, 27% had insufficient vitamin D levels (< 50 nmol/l). The descriptive analysis indicated that the children with insufficient vitamin D levels had a higher prevalence (33.3%) and a higher number of teeth affected by dental caries (mean (SD) = 0.7 (1.4)), compared to children with sufficient levels of vitamin D (21.6% and mean (SD) = 0.4 (0.8), respectively). The same holds for MIH, with a higher prevalence (38.5%) and a higher number of teeth affected (mean (SD) = 1.2 (2.3)), compared to children with sufficient levels of vitamin D (30.1% and mean (SD) = 0.8 (1.6), respectively). However, in the adjusted hurdle model analysis, neither the prevalence or number of teeth affected by caries or MIH showed statistically significant associations with having insufficient or lower vitamin D levels.ConclusionsVitamin D status was not significantly associated with the prevalence and number of teeth affected by caries and MIH among the participating children. Large prospective studies with multiple serum vitamin D measurements and oral examinations throughout childhood are warranted to elucidate the relationship.

Evaluating incentives to encourage native afforestation on private lands in Aotearoa–New Zealand

Native forest establishment is an important mechanism to sequester carbon, increase biodiversity, prevent erosion, and improve water quality. Designing incentive programmes to encourage rural landholders to plant native trees on their land requires knowing what factors influence their decisions. We used a choice experiment to evaluate the impacts of various incentives to encourage native afforestation and regeneration on private lands in Aotearoa–New Zealand. The survey was completed by over 600 rural landholders, including dairy, sheep, beef and other livestock farmers and lifestyle block (smallholding or hobby farm) owners. We estimated a hurdle negative binomial model to quantify the impact of programme attributes and farm characteristics on both the probability of enrolment and the area committed to native forest establishment. Rural landholders showed interest in joining voluntary programmes to establish native forests if provided with appropriate monetary and non-monetary incentives and when native forest establishment aligned with their properties’ characteristics. Differences in preferences existed between afforestation/planting and reversion/regeneration programmes. Monetary incentives were key to increasing enrolment and area commitment to both afforestation/planting and reversion/regeneration programmes. Providing seedlings or finding seedlings suppliers were the most important non-monetary incentives to encourage enrolment. Help with application and paperwork and help with planning and species selection encouraged enrolment in afforestation/planting programmes but not reversion/regeneration programmes. Property characteristics were important determinants of both enrolment and area commitment to the programmes. These results have important implications for policymakers charged with designing and implementing programmes encouraging native forest establishment.

The role of multimorbidity and socio-economic characteristics as potential risk factors for Long Covid: evidence from the multilevel analysis of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe's corona surveys (2020-2021).

A substantial proportion of individuals continue experiencing persistent symptoms following the acute stage of their Covid-19 illness. However, there is a shortage of population-based studies on Long Covid risk factors. To estimate the prevalence of Long Covid in the population of middle-aged and older Europeans having contracted Covid-19 and to assess the role of multimorbidity and socio-economic characteristics as potential risk factors of Long Covid. A population-based longitudinal prospective study involving a sample of respondents 50 years and older (n= 4,004) from 27 countries who participated in the 2020 and 2021 Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), in particular the Corona Surveys. Analyses were conducted by a multilevel (random intercept) hurdle negative binomial model. Overall, 71.6% (95% confidence interval = 70.2-73.0%) of the individuals who contracted Covid-19 had at least one symptom of Long Covid up to 12 months after the infection, with an average of 3.06 (standard deviation = 1.88) symptoms. There were significant cross-country differences in the prevalence of Long Covid and number of symptoms. Higher education and being a man were associated with a lower risk of Long Covid, whilst being employed was associated with a higher risk of having Long Covid. Multimorbidity was associated with a higher number of symptoms and older age was associated with a lower number of symptoms. Our results provide evidence on the substantial burden of Long Covid in Europe. Individuals who contracted Covid-19 may require long-term support or further medical intervention, putting additional pressure on national health care systems.

Associations Between Age-Related Hearing Loss, Cognitive Impairment, and Multiple Chronic Conditions in a Group Care Setting.

The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships between hearing loss, cognitive status, and a range of health outcomes over a period of 2 years in a sample of older adults who are enrolled in Program of All-Inclusive Care for the Elderly, which is a Medicare/Medicaid beneficiary program for individuals who are nursing home eligible but living in the community at time of enrollment. The sample (N = 144) includes a diverse (47% White/non-Hispanic, 35% Black/African American, and 16% Latin/Hispanic) group of adults ranging from 55 to 93 years old. We used medical chart data to measure respondents' cognitive and health status, including chronic conditions and hospital use. Hearing status was measured once at the beginning of the 2-year review period. We used logistic regression and negative binomial hurdle models for analyses. We used latent class analysis (LCA) to explore the extent to which respondents cluster into a set of "health profiles" characterized by their hearing, cognitive status, and health conditions. We found that hearing loss is weakly associated with heart disease and diabetes and associated with cerebrovascular disease and falls; cognitive impairment is also associated with cerebrovascular disease and the number of falls. LCA indicates that respondents cluster into a variety of health profiles with a consistent pairing of hearing loss and depression. The results are largely consistent with associations reported in epidemiological studies that include age-related hearing loss. Of particular interest in this study is the LCA that suggested that all of the profiles associated with a high likelihood of hearing loss included a high risk of depression. The co-occurrence of these two factors highlights the need to identify and treat hearing loss in older adults, especially as part of the treatment plan for individuals with depressive symptoms.

Spatially explicit models of seed availability improve predictions of conifer regeneration following the 2018 Carr Fire in northern California

For many conifer species in dry conifer forests of North America, seeds must be present for postfire regeneration to occur, suggesting that seed dispersal from surviving trees plays a critical role in postfire forest recovery. However, the application of tree fecundity and spatial arrangement to postfire conifer recovery predictions have only recently become more common, and is often included at relatively coarse scales (i.e., 30 meters). In this study, we mapped surviving trees using lidar and created a spatially explicit estimate of seed density (seed shadows) with 10 m, 50 m, and 100 m median dispersal distances. We estimated the number of seeds produced by each tree using allometric relationships between tree size and fecundity. Along with the seed shadows, we used a suite of topographic variables as inputs to negative binomial hurdle models to predict conifer seedling abundance in 131 plots following the 2018 Carr Fire in northern California, USA. We compared models using each of the seed shadows to each other as well as to a model using the distance to the nearest surviving tree, which served as a baseline. All model formulations indicated that estimated seed availability was positively associated with conifer regeneration. Despite the importance of seed availability plays in regeneration and the substantial differences in seed availability represented by the different seed shadows in our analysis, we found surprisingly little difference in model performance regardless of which seed shadow was used. However, the models employing seed shadows outperformed the models with distance to the nearest live tree. Although we have demonstrated a modest improvement in predicting postfire conifer regeneration, the uncertainty in our results highlights the importance of tree detection and classification in future studies of this kind. Future studies may find it useful to consider other factors such as predation, site suitability, and seed mortality as potential drivers of discrepancies between total and realized dispersal kernels.

An empirical analysis of socioeconomic risk factors associated with antenatal care attendance in Bangladesh

Maternal mortality and morbidity reduction constitute policy priorities, facilitated by prenatal care and World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed antenatal care (ANC) utilization during pregnancy. Progress in Bangladesh is hindered as only 47% of expectant women participated in a minimum of four ANC sessions according to the latest maternal mortality survey. This study, utilizing 2018 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) data, undertakes an assessment of the socioeconomic determinants influencing the utilization or non-utilization of ANC services. Additionally, the study investigates socioeconomic factors significantly impacting the attainment of the WHO-recommended four or more ANC sessions. A Hurdle Negative Binomial Model is employed to ascertain ANC risk variables and their frequency, while the utilization characteristics of WHO ANC services are discerned through the Binary Logistic Regression Model. Noteworthy among the statistically significant determinants influencing the reception of any antenatal care (ANC) in Bangladesh are the sex of the household head, place of residence, wealth index, husband/partner's education, the highest educational attainment of women, decision-making regarding the expenditure of women's earnings, ease of obtaining medical assistance permission, mobile phone ownership, and media exposure. Furthermore, this empirical inquiry reveals that income inequality, the highest educational attainment of women, decision-making regarding the expenditure of women's earnings, distance to health facilities, mobile phone ownership, utilization of phones for financial transactions, and media exposure significantly determine adherence to WHO-recommended ANC guidelines. This study identifies four crucial determinants for the initiation of ANC services and adherence to recommended prenatal care: a pregnant woman's wealth index ranking, highest educational attainment, ownership of a mobile phone, and exposure to media. The findings of this study can aid Bangladeshi healthcare programmers and policymakers in devising strategies to achieve comprehensive ANC coverage for all pregnant women.

Many leveled ordinal models for frequency of alcohol and drug use

ABSTRACT Background: The numbers of days people consume alcohol and other drugs over a fixed interval, such as 28 days, are often collected in surveys of substance use. The presence of an upper bound on these variables can result in response distributions with “ceiling effects.” Also, if some peoples’ substance use behaviors are characterized by weekly patterns of use, summaries of substance days-of-use over longer periods can exhibit multiple modes. Objective: To highlight advantages of ordinal models with a separate level for each distinct survey response, for bounded, and potentially multimodal, count data. Methods: We fitted a Bayesian proportional odds ordinal model to longitudinal cannabis days-of-use reported by 443 individuals who used illicit drugs (206 female, 214 male, 23 non-binary). We specified an ordinal level for each unique response to allow the exact numeric distribution implied by the predicted ordinal response to be inferred. We then compared the fit of the proportional odds model with binomial, negative binomial, hurdle negative binomial and beta-binomial models. Results: Posterior predictive checks and the leave one out information criterion both suggested that the proportional odds model gave a better fit to the cannabis days-of-use data than the other models. Cannabis use among the target population declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia, with the odds of a member of the population exceeding any specified frequency of cannabis use in Wave 4 estimated to be 73% lower than in Wave 1 (median odds ratio 0.27, 90% credible interval 0.19, 0.38). Conclusion: Ordinal models can be suitable for complex count data.

Emergency department use and geospatial variation in social determinants of health: a pilot study from South Carolina

BackgroundHealth systems are increasingly addressing patients’ social determinants of health (SDoH)-related needs and investigating their effects on health resource use. SDoH needs vary geographically; however, little is known about how this geographic variation in SDoH needs impacts the relationship between SDoH needs and health resource use.MethodsThis study uses data from a SDoH survey administered to a pilot patient population in a single health system and the electronic medical records of the surveyed patients to determine if the impact of SDoH needs on emergency department use varies geospatially at the US Census block group level. A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial model was used to determine if emergency department visits after SDoH screening varied across block groups. Additionally, the relationships between the number of emergency department visits and the response to each SDoH screening question was assessed using Bayesian negative binomial hurdle models with spatially varying coefficients following a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model at the census block group level.ResultsStatistically important differences in emergency department visits after screening were found between block groups. Statistically important spatial variation was found in the association between patient responses to the questions concerning unhealthy home environments (e.g. mold, bugs/rodents, not enough air conditioning/heat) or domestic violence/abuse and the mean number of emergency department visits after the screen.ConclusionsNotable spatial variation was found in the relationships between screening positive for unhealthy home environments or domestic violence/abuse and emergency department use. Despite the limitation of a relatively small sample size, sensitivity analyses suggest spatially varying relationships between other SDoH-related needs and emergency department use.

Multilevel Count Regression Analysis of Factors Associated with the Desired Number of Antenatal Care Service Visits in Ethiopia.

Visiting the desired number of antenatal care services improve the success of maternal health programs in terms of mother and child health. The study aimed to identify the factors associated with differences in the number of antenatal care service visits across and within regions of Ethiopia by using the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey (EMDHS). A total of 3979 women who were pregnant or gave birth within 5 years preceding the survey from the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic Health Survey were included in the analysis. A multi-level Hurdle negative binomial regression model was selected to consider the hierarchical nature of the data in determining the factors associated with the barriers to the desired number of antenatal care service visits. About one-fourth (26.2%) of mothers did not visit any antenatal care, and only 137 (3.4%) women visited the service eight times and above. The random intercept with the fixed coefficient of multilevel Hurdle negative binomial model results has shown that women in the age group between 25 and 34 (AOR = 1.057), in the age group between 35 and 49 (AOR = 1.108), protestant religion follower women (AOR = 0.918), Muslim women (AOR = 0.945), other religion follower women (AOR = 0.768), mothers in primary educational level (AOR = 1.123), secondary and higher education level (AOR = 1.228), rich mothers (AOR = 1.134), and mothers living in rural (AOR = 0.789) were statistically associated with regional variation regarding the frequency of ANC service visits. The majority of pregnant women did not visit antenatal care services according to the findings of this study. This study's results revealed that the predictor variables such as mother's age, education level, religion, place of residence, marital status, and wealth index were significant, and the findings revealed that there were regional differences in ANC visits in Ethiopia. Women's economic and educational interventions should be a top priority.

The infinity vaccine war: linguistic regularities and audience engagement of vaccine debate on Twitter

Purpose As public health professionals strive to promote vaccines for inoculation efforts, fervent anti-vaccination movements are marshaling against it. This study is motived by a need to better understand the online discussion around vaccination. The authors identified the sentiments, emotions and topics of pro- and anti-vaxxers’ tweets, investigated their change since the pandemic started and further examined the associations between these content features and audiences’ engagement.Design/methodology/approach Utilizing a snowball sampling method, data were collected from the Twitter accounts of 100 pro-vaxxers (266,680 tweets) and 100 anti-vaxxers (248,425 tweets). The authors are adopting a zero-shot machine learning algorithm with a pre-trained transformer-based model for sentiment analysis and structural topic modeling to extract the topics. And the authors use the hurdle negative binomial model to test the relationships among sentiment/emotion, topics and engagement.Findings In general, pro-vaxxers used more positive tones and more emotions of joy in their tweets, while anti-vaxxers utilized more negative terms. The cues of sadness predominantly encourage retweets across the pro- and anti-vaccine corpus, while tweets amplifying the emotion of surprise are more attention-grabbing and getting more likes. Topic modeling of tweets yields the top 15 topics for pro- and anti-vaxxers separately. Among the pro-vaxxers’ tweets, the topics of “Child protection” and “COVID-19 situation” are positively predicting audiences’ engagement. For anti-vaxxers, the topics of “Supporting Trump,” “Injured children,” “COVID-19 situation,” “Media propaganda” and “Community building” are more appealing to audiences.Originality/value This study utilizes social media data and a state-of-art machine learning algorithm to generate insights into the development of emotionally appealing content and effective vaccine promotion strategies while combating coronavirus disease 2019 and moving toward a global recovery.Peer reviewThe peer review history for this article is available at https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/OIR-03-2022-0186

A longitudinal examination of alcohol use and emotion dysregulation in adolescence.

Underage drinking is a serious public health concern with magnified physical and psychological risks. Previous research suggests that emotion dysregulation is one factor linked to alcohol use. Limited research has examined emotion dysregulation and alcohol use in adolescent populations, thus the present study aimed to examine the links by assessing the role of emotion dysregulation and its subscales in adolescent alcohol use over time. Participants were 695 high school students, with 309 students having completed Time 2 data collection at a 6-month follow-up. Participants completed measures that assessed Alcohol Use, Emotion Dysregulation, and Emotion Dysregulation subscales. In a negative binomial hurdle model, adolescents with greater emotion regulation difficulties at baseline had significantly greater odds of endorsing any alcohol use at baseline. Greater emotion dysregulation did not significantly predict drinking status or drinking level 6 months later when controlling for baseline alcohol use. Adolescents who reported greater emotional clarity difficulties at baseline were more likely to report any alcohol use at baseline. Among adolescents who drink, reporting greater difficulties accessing emotion regulation strategies was associated with greater alcohol use at baseline and 6 months later. These findings indicate that emotion dysregulation is a cross-sectional marker of alcohol use in adolescents; however, results did not show emotion dysregulation to be a prospective predictor of greater alcohol use. Future research is needed to replicate findings in a more diverse sample of adolescents. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Association of admission frailty and frailty changes during cardiac rehabilitation with 5-year outcomes.

Examine the association between (1) admission frailty and (2) frailty changes during cardiac rehabilitation (CR) with 5-year outcomes (i.e. time to mortality, first hospitalization, first emergency department (ED) visit, and number of hospitalizations, hospital days, and ED visits). Data from patients admitted to a 12-week CR programme in Halifax, Nova Scotia, from May 2005 to April 2015 (n = 3371) were analysed. A 25-item frailty index (FI) estimated frailty levels at CR admission and completion. FI improvements were determined by calculating the difference between admission and discharge FI. CR data were linked to administrative health data to examine 5-year outcomes [due to all causes and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs)]. Cox regression, Fine-Gray models, and negative binomial hurdle models were used to determine the association between FI and outcomes. On average, patients were 61.9 (SD: 10.7) years old and 74% were male. Mean admission FI scores were 0.34 (SD: 0.13), which improved by 0.07 (SD: 0.09) by CR completion. Admission FI was associated with time to mortality [HRs/IRRs per 0.01 FI increase: all causes = 1.02(95% CI 1.01,1.04); CVD = 1.03(1.02,1.05)], hospitalization [all causes = 1.02(1.01,1.02); CVD = 1.02(1.01,1.02)], ED visit [all causes = 1.01(1.00,1.01)], and the number of hospitalizations [all causes = 1.02(95% CI 1.01,1.03); CVD = 1.02(1.00,1.04)], hospital days [all causes = 1.01(1.01,1.03)], and ED visits [all causes = 1.02(1.02,1.03)]. FI improvements during CR had a protective effect regarding time to all-cause hospitalization [0.99(0.98,0.99)] but were not associated with other outcomes. Frailty status at CR admission was related to long-term adverse outcomes. Frailty improvements during CR were associated with delayed all-cause hospitalization, in which a larger effect was associated with a greater chance of improved outcome.

Office design, telework from home, and self-certified sickness absence: A cross-sectional study of main and moderating effects in a nationally representative sample.

This study aimed to investigate (i) the main effects of office design and access to telework from home (TWFH) on self-certified sickness absence and (ii) the moderating effects of access to TWFH on the relationship between office design and self-certified sickness absence. The study used cross-sectional survey data from a nationally representative sample from Norway (N=4329). Research objectives were investigated with negative binomial hurdle models, adjusting for age, gender, education level, leadership responsibility, and time spent on office work. Moderating effects of TWFH were evaluated with pairwise comparisons and plots of estimated marginal means. In adjusted models, employees in conventional open-plan offices [odds ratio (OR) 1.32, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.54] had significantly higher odds of sickness absence than employees in private offices. Employees with access to TWFH (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.74-0.99) had significantly lower odds of sickness absence than employees with no access. Among employees with access to TWFH, those in conventional open-plan offices had significantly higher predicted probability of self-certified sickness absence than those in private offices (z=4.41, P<0.0001). There were no significant differences between office designs among employees who did not have access to TWFH. There were no significant main or moderating effects on the number of sickness absence episodes in adjusted models. The current study identifies conventional open-plan offices as a potential risk factor for sickness absence. While access to TWFH may be a protective factor overall, it amplified - rather than attenuated - differences in sickness absence between employees in private offices and conventional open-plan offices.

Tea Consumption and Gut Microbiome in Older Chinese Adults

BackgroundAnimal and small-cohort human studies have shown that tea consumption affects the gut microbiome, but evidence from large cohort studies is lacking. ObjectivesWe examined associations between tea consumption and gut microbiome composition among older Chinese adults. MethodsThe study included 1179 men and 1078 women from the Shanghai Men’s and Women’s Health Studies, who reported tea drinking status, type, amount, and duration at baseline and follow-up surveys (1996–2017) and were free of cancer, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes at stool collection (2015–2018). Fecal microbiome was profiled using 16S rRNA sequencing. Associations of tea variables with microbiome diversity and taxa abundance were evaluated using linear or negative binomial hurdle models after adjusting for sociodemographics, lifestyle, and hypertension status. ResultsMean age at stool collection was 67.2 ± 9.0 y in men and 69.6 ± 8.5 y in women. Tea drinking was not associated with microbiome ɑ-diversity in men or women; however, all tea variables were associated with β-diversity in men (P < 0.001). Significant associations with taxa abundance were also observed mostly in men. Current tea drinking, mainly green tea drinking, was associated with increase in orders Synergistales and RF39 in men (β = 0.30 to 0.42, all PFDR ≤ 0.10) but not in women (PInteraction-sex = 0.01). Also, increase in families Coriobacteriaceae, Odoribacteraceae, genera Collinsella, Odoribacter, and species Collinsella aerofaciens, Coprococcus catus, and Dorea formicigenerans were observed among men who drank >3.3 cups (781 mL)/d compared to that of nondrinkers (all PFDR <0.10). The increased Coprococcus catus related to tea drinking was more evident among men without hypertension and inversely associated with the prevalence of hypertension (OR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.97; PFDR = 0.03). ConclusionsTea consumption may affect gut microbiome β-diversity and abundance of some bacteria, which may contribute to reduced hypertension risk in Chinese men. Future studies should examine the sex-specific tea-gut microbiome associations and how certain bacteria may mediate the health benefits of tea.

Modelling of tea mosquito bug (Helopeltis theivora) incidence on neem tree: A zero inflated count data analysis

Neem (Azadirachta indica) is an evergreen tree belonging to the Meliaceae family and is highly infected by the seasonal pest called Helopeltis theivora, the tea mosquito bug. The study monitors the pest infection between May 2019 and April 2021 by the direct counting method. Weekly counts of insect pest population were found to be correlated with weather parameters viz., maximum temperature (Tmax.), minimum temperature (Tmin), relative humidity [morning (07.22hrs) and afternoon (14.22hrs) (RH)], rainfall (mm/day) and wind speed (km/h). Zero inflated count data techniques were opted for modelling the pest dynamics of tea mosquito bug as the data was featured by excess zeroes and heteroscedasticity nature. Poisson, Negative Binomial (NB), zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) and Negative Binomial Hurdle (NBH) models were fitted for the collected data and compared. The results of different count data models show that the negative binomial hurdle model is a good fit for given data, followed by the zero-inflated negative model. The fitted models show the weather covariates, which highly influencing the pest infestation on neem tree.

Polysubstance use among young adults and differences in negative alcohol-related sexual experiences

This study aimed to compare negative alcohol-related sexual experiences among individuals who used (1) alcohol only, (2) alcohol plus marijuana, and (3) alcohol plus marijuana and stimulants. Participants in the analytic sample (N = 1,015; Mean age = 19.16 (SD = 0.79); 45.42% male) completed an online baseline survey as part of an intervention study. A hurdle negative binomial model examined the associations between polysubstance use and negative alcohol-related sexual experiences. Models examined if experiences varied by demographic factors. Compared to participants that only used alcohol, those who used alcohol plus marijuana and stimulants reported a higher likelihood and average number of negative alcohol-related sexual experiences in the past 3 months. Participants that used alcohol plus marijuana had a higher likelihood of having a negative alcohol-related sexual experience in the past 3 months compared to those who only used alcohol. These findings suggest the number and risk for negative alcohol-related sexual experiences increases with the number of substances being used.

A climate-sensitive mixed-effects tree recruitment model for oaks (Quercus spp.) in Hunan Province, south-central China

Tree recruitment is an essential component and plays a fundamental role in forest management decision-making. However, the existing tree recruitment models for oak (Quercus spp.) species have been developed using traditional modeling functions, and have neglected the effects of climate, which do not apply to long-term projections of future forest composition under a climatic change scenario. In this study, we developed tree recruitment models based on the data of 548 permanent sample plots distributed in Hunan Province, south-central China. Five commonly used recruitment approaches (negative binomial model, zero-inflated Poisson, zero-inflated negative binomial model, Hurdle-Poisson model, and Hurdle-negative binomial model) were employed to analyze the data. Then the random effects of the regions were included to develop the nonlinear mixed-effects models and account for spatial and temporal correlations. Among the various candidate predictors tested including stand characteristics, site conditions, and climate, stand basal area (BA), quadratic mean diameter (QMD), basal area of the species (Bai), cosine of the slope combined with the natural logarithm of elevation (CIE), and mean annual temperature (MAT) had significant effects on oak recruitment. The zero-inflated negative binomial model was selected as the optimal model compared to the other four basic models. The performance of the models improved significantly when the random effects were added. These results and knowledge of adaptive management will be useful for developing practical forest management plans.