Negative Average Growth Research Articles

A bibliometric analysis of Indonesian stem education research (2019–2023): Trends, contributors, and future directions

Science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education is a global priority, but effective implementation faces challenges. This bibliometric study analyzed the results of Indonesian STEM education research to elucidate publication and contributor patterns. The Scopus database was searched for Indonesian STEM education publications from 2019–2023 and produced 52 documents from 23 sources. The analysis found a negative average growth rate of −5.43%, with a peak of 14 releases in 2020, possibly related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the output was relatively limited, the diversity of sources suggests wide-ranging interest. The leading authors were identified based on their productivity and impact on citation, with Wahono. emerging as the most influential worldwide. Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia was an institutional leader. The Journal of Physics Conference series dominated the contributions and emphasized the role of conference proceedings. Examination of the citations and text frequencies revealed key themes that include technology, engineering, pedagogy, and skills of the 21st century. Several widely cited works ensured international visibility. In general, this bibliometric analysis quantitatively mapped the landscape of Indonesian STEM education research, finding a decline in performance but a strong foundation of committed institutions and authors. The sustainability of production and impact requires targeted policies based on insight into existing strengths, productive scholars, and influential publications. The results provide an empirical basis for practices and policies for the effective development of STEM education in Indonesian schools.

Survival induced by short-scale autocorrelations in birth-death-diffusion models with negative growth.

In a birth, death, and diffusion process, the extinction-survival transition occurs when the average net growth rate is zero. For instance, in the presence of normally distributed time-varying stochastic growth rates with no autocorrelation, the transition indeed occurs at zero net growth rates. In contrast, if the growth rates are constant in time, a large enough variance in the growth rate will systematically ensure the survival of the global population even in a small system and, more importantly, even with a negative net growth rate. We here show that, surprisingly, for any intermediate temporal autocorrelation, any length of correlation, and any negative average growth rate, the same result holds. We test this argument on exponential and power law autocorrelation models and propose a simple condition for the growth rate variance at the transition.

ТЕМПЫ ПРИРОСТА И ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЕ ОБЩЕЙ ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ ЖИТЕЛЕЙ СЕЛЬСКИХ РАЙОНОВ

Introduction. It is necessary to forecast the development of population morbidity, based on the processing and analysis of accumulated reliable information to provide timely high-quality medical service, and to develop a set of targeted therapeutic and preventive measures. Aim. The aim of the study was to assess the features of the growth rate and to forecast general morbidity of the adult population in rural areas focused on different branches of agriculture. Material and methods. The processing and analysis of data from annual statistical reports of the Sanitary-Epidemiological Welfare and Public Health Service of Tashkent region on morbidity of adult population (18 years and older) living in Bostanlyk (fruit and vegetable) and Chinaz (cotton growing) districts were performed. Indicators of general morbidity of rural population in dynamics were studied for the period 2007–2018 by classes of diseases according to ICD-10. Comparative analysis of general morbidity was performed for two 5-year periods (2007–2011 and 2014–2018). Statistical analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and Statistica 10.0 software packages. Student’s t-test was used to determine the significance of differences in mean values. Differences of arithmetic mean values were considered reliable at p < 0,05. Results and discussion. In the period from 2007 to 2018, the dynamic changes in the general morbidity of ВЕСТНИК СОВРЕМЕННОЙ КЛИНИЧЕСКОЙ МЕДИЦИНЫ 2021 Том 14, вып. 6 39ОРИГИНАЛЬНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ the adult population in the cotton-growing and, to a greater extent, in the fruit-and-vegetable districts of Tashkent province were characterized by a negative average growth rate (-6,8 vs. -66,5%). As a result of analysis of statistical data for 2014–2018, in comparison with 2007–2011, decrease of general morbidity of population in fruit and vegetable growing district by 39,5%, and on the contrary, in cotton-growing district there was increase by 9,6%. Forecasting indicates a further decrease in the general morbidity of population in rural areas of Tashkent region in the coming years. At the same time, the tendency to further increase of respiratory diseases - in the fruit and vegetable growing district and respiratory, digestive and circulatory diseases – in the cotton-growing district is outlined. Conclusion. The observed decrease in the general morbidity of the rural population, apparently, is associated with the implementation in Uzbekistan of crop diversification policy since 2010, based on reducing the use of pesticides and mineral fertilizers. Significant prevalence of general morbidity of six leading classes of diseases, characteristics of growth rate and medium-term forecast create the need for monitoring and contribute to establishment of a set of measures for prevention, early detection of diseases and pathological conditions, taking into account the contributing risk factors.

Assessing the resilience of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa economies following the global financial crisis

Orientation: Productivity is known as a good predictor of living standards, able to indicate well-being of the population and efficiency of the economy.Research purpose: To examine how the global financial crisis affected the total factor productivity (TFP) of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) economies.Motivation for the study: Productivity of BRICS is far below the G-7 and EU-28 countries, even though the economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa together are very representative of both the world gross domestic product (GDP) and population.Research design, approach and method: Observational study of a cross country panel data of five countries throughout 14 years, including the period of the 2008 crisis. Based on the Penn World Table (PWT) 9.0 database, we compared BRICS countries, from 2001 to 2014, before and after the financial crisis. Descriptive statistics, tests with Fisher–Snedecor (F) distribution, and a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), may bring robust evidence to construct conclusions.Main findings: Findings suggest that the TFP average growth was negatively affected. The special situation of ‘B’ and ‘S’ (Brazil and South Africa) deserves attention, with negative average growth before and after the financial crisis for Brazil, and a dramatic loss of average growth for South Africa. The global crisis seems to have separated BRICS into RIC-BS in the aftermath. Not all the TFP average growths were equal, either before or after the financial crisis.Practical/managerial implications: The TFP average growth, which is essential to economic development of the nation, is the result of managerial behaviour of companies and governments on a day to day basis. Decision makers and policymakers need to know how productivity was affected by the financial crisis.Contribution/value-add: There is a gap in economic literature about the productivity of BRICS compared, restraining the assessment of the homogeneity of the BRICS economic development, especially as an aftermath of the crisis. The main contribution to the field of business and economics is giving evidence-based information to policymakers and decision makers of the BRICS about the extension of the 2008 financial crisis’ impact, offering a new perception of the block’s resilience both individually and combined.

Testing Instability in Growth Patterns in the Course of Transition: Evidence for Balkan Countries

Abstract Stylised facts of GDP growth patterns of developing (or transition) countries reveal huge difference to the GDP pattern observed in developed countries. Namely, they are characterised by a specific characteristic - instability, much higher and different from the ones observed in developed countries. This paper brings forward the assessment of the instability of growth, which is observed and tested in the case of several Balkan economies. In the course of transition, they experienced sudden turns from positive to negative average growth rates (or vice versa) caused by many structural, economic, political and social changes. Hence, the main purpose of the paper is to review the very recent literature on instability in growth and to empirically analyse it in the case of Balkan group of transition economies, performed by use of the simple linear regression analysis on the GDP growth data series. Main goal is to determine whether GDP growth patterns in the course of transition were characterised by instability and breaks. The results suggest that the growth process in Balkan economies cannot be described simply by a single rising trend, since the simple linear regression analysis shows very poor statistical fit. In general, the assessment guides towards an in-depth study of the instability of growth in the course of transition with a novel growth concept that will allow for shifts or breaks in trend, accompanied by a non-linear modelling approach that will allow the parameters to adjust to reflect structural changes in the course of transition.

Species survival and scaling laws in hostile and disordered environments.

In this work we study the likelihood of survival of single-species in the context of hostile and disordered environments. Population dynamics in this environment, as modeled by the Fisher equation, is characterized by negative average growth rate, except in some random spatially distributed patches that may support life. In particular, we are interested in the phase diagram of the survival probability and in the critical size problem, i.e., the minimum patch size required for surviving in the long-time dynamics. We propose a measure for the critical patch size as being proportional to the participation ratio of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue of the linearized Fisher dynamics. We obtain the (extinction-survival) phase diagram and the probability distribution function (PDF) of the critical patch sizes for two topologies, namely, the one-dimensional system and the fractal Peano basin. We show that both topologies share the same qualitative features, but the fractal topology requires higher spatial fluctuations to guarantee species survival. We perform a finite-size scaling and we obtain the associated scaling exponents. In addition, we show that the PDF of the critical patch sizes has an universal shape for the 1D case in terms of the model parameters (diffusion, growth rate, etc.). In contrast, the diffusion coefficient has a drastic effect on the PDF of the critical patch sizes of the fractal Peano basin, and it does not obey the same scaling law of the 1D case.

ANALISIS FINANSIAL USAHA KERAMBA JARING APUNG DI PERUSAHAAN PERSEORANGAN DOBRO

This research is intended to know factors influencing fish production, financial performance and business security of private company Dobro. Data which are analyzed including production data (production, feed, seed and worker) for fish production factors analysis, balancing and profit/loss statement 2006 - 2009 for financial performance and business security analysis. The production factors analysis in this research uses regression method with Cobb-Douglas production function approach. The financial performance and business security use financial statement comparison and ratio analysis. Ratios that be researched are liquidity (ratios that be researched are current and quick ratio), solvability (ratios that be researched are total debt to total asset ratio and total debt to equity ratio), efficiency (ratios that be researched are inventory turnover, account receivable turnover, fixed asset turnover and total asset turnover) and profitability ratio (ratios that be researched are gross profit margin, operating profit margin, net profit margin and return on investment). Business security analysis use Altman Z” score to detect company position in Altman area of bankruptcy. The result of this research could be concluded that fish production is simultaneous and individually influenced by feed, seed and worker. Financial analysis shows company liquidity in good condition with positive average growth values. Solvability is also in good condition with negative average growth values. Commonly efficiency and profitability have normal values, but have negative average growth value. Based Altman Z” score, company exists in area which secure from bankruptcy threat. Keywords: Production, financial, bankruptcy

Estimation of regional sheep abundance based on group sizes

ABSTRACTWe used sightability models with aerial counts to estimate regional abundance of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in southwestern Arizona during 1992–2012. Because of incomplete spatial and temporal coverage of surveys, we integrated sightability estimates using Bayesian state‐space models. Although some game management units (GMUs) exhibited negative average growth rates during this period, temporal variability in growth was large. The combination of temporal variability and statistical uncertainty in the sightability estimates led to the selection of a regional model having zero mean growth from initial abundance. Hence, the model indicated a relatively stable population of desert bighorn sheep in southern Arizona, beginning with approximately 2,900 bighorn sheep in 1992 to the current number of approximately 2,300 sheep (2012). Our method provides statistically valid estimates of overall regional abundance not otherwise possible given the incomplete spatial coverage of surveys. Additionally, results have implications for other studies, common in wildlife management, where managers seek to integrate information across surveys with partial time‐series. © 2014 The Wildlife Society.

Random Walks in a Metapopulation: How Much Density Dependence is Necessary for Long-Term Persistence?

We describe analytical and simulation models of metapopulations consisting of local populations that obey a random walk between a reflecting upper boundary (population 'ceiling') and an absorbing lower boundary (local extinction). We present analytical results for the expected time to local extinction, expected size of local populations, and incidence of density dependence. The latter is defined as the frequency of hitting the ceiling per generation per population. With these models we examine the proposition that a metapopulation consisting of random walk local populations would persist without density dependence. Long-term persistence of a metapopulation is not possible without local populations occasionally becoming large and hence being affected by density dependence. But it is possible to construct examples in which a metapopulation persists for a long time with a low incidence of density dependence, in which cases local populations typically have very short expected lifetimes. We demonstrate that, paradoxically, a persisting metapopulation may consist of only 'sink' populations (negative average growth rate in the absence of migration). Contrary to some previous suggestions, increasing migration rate generally increases density dependence in persisting metapopulations.

Stochastic population dynamics of clonal plants: Numerical experiments with ramet and genet models

AbstractDynamics of ramer and genet populations were analyzed by use of stochastic matrix models. Based on field data, population development and extinction rates during 50 simulated years were estimated for ramet populations of three species Potentilla anserina, Rubus saxatilis and Linnaea borealis. Only small initial populations (below 125–250 ramets), experienced a detectable risk of extinction within this time interval. For P. anserina and R. saxatilis, population increase occurred in some simulations despite negative average growth rates. A model for stochastic genet dynamics was constructed by combining field data and hypothesized parameter values. Growth rate and population structure were insensitive to variation in disturbance intensity and frequency, whereas variation in recruitment affected population structure but only to a minor extent growth rate. Decreasing recruitment causes extinction of genet populations, but the time‐scale for the decline is in the magnitude of centuries for initial genet populations of about 1000 individuals. Dynamics of genets in clonal plants thus incorporate processes occurring on widely different scales. Some implications of the results for models of population dynamics in long‐lived clonal plants are discussed.