Negative Campaigning Research Articles

Is Negative Campaigning a Response to a Dynamic Polling Environment? Evidence from Facebook and Twitter Posts by German Party Leaders in the 2021 German Federal Election

ABSTRACT Do negative campaigning strategies evolve in sync with a party leader’s position in public opinion polls? In Germany’s multi-party system, previous research during the traditional media era found that a chancellor candidate’s drop in the polls did not impact negativity. This study focuses on the dynamic campaign in the 2021 Federal Election, which is the most competitive campaign to date in the social media era as there was no incumbent chancellor candidate. The prevalence of negative campaigning by six major party leaders who made a total of n = 3580 posts on Facebook and Twitter from 1 March to Election Day on 25 September 2021 is studied here. Negative posts accounted for 7.7 per cent of total posts. Results also show that a chancellor candidate’s position in the polls matters: Front-runners are less likely to rely on negative campaigning, but as candidates drop down in the polls from being the main challenger to rank third or lower, their negative campaigning increases. During the official six-week campaign or the hot phase, the number of negative posts increases overall as Election Day approaches. Variation in the use of negative campaigning among the individual chancellor candidates is discussed as is evidence of negative campaigning prior to the hot phase.

Going Negative in Autocracy: A Field Experiment at the Moscow Mayoral Elections

Abstract Opposition in autocracies often uses negativism against the regime to frame its principal message. This study is the first to experimentally evaluate the effectiveness of a negative campaign on a regime candidate’s vote share. For the field experiment conducted during the 2013 Moscow mayoral election, we published a newspaper criticizing the incumbent mayor. We distributed approximately 130,000 copies near the entrances of 20 stations on four randomly selected metro lines one month prior to the election. We found that the incumbent’s vote share was 1.7 percentage points lower at the voting stations where the newspaper was distributed. These votes go to other candidates who address issues raised by the negative campaign. Anti-regime campaigning does not suppress turnout or increase disapproval voting.

What Leads to Voting Despite Intention to Abstain?: Emotions, Turnout, and Negative Campaigns in Turkish Elections

Abstract This article sheds light on the factors that pave the way from voter abstention to voter turnout based on extensive research of tweets on national and local elections in Turkey. We find that the negative campaign strategy of the incumbent and the fact that the campaigning process has taken place on a very uneven playing field have triggered a set of emotions, primarily moral outrage and anger among the electorate, which have the power to change voting patterns in a significant way. The effect of negative campaigning on expressive voting was further enhanced by the pulling effect of the candidates and their public supporters and endorsements. We found that other, competing explanations of political outcomes are secondary to the mechanisms above.

Negative Campaigning and Vote Choice: Rationale, Trends, and Future Research

Negative campaigning is a worldwide phenomenon. As a strategy for mobilizing support, it affects the electorate and democracy. However, its effectiveness varies across space and time. While some studies assert that negativity depresses voter turnout, thereby delegitimizing the electoral process, others provide conflicting results that such campaigns mobilize voters since they supply information critical for their participation. There are three nuanced outcomes resulting from negative campaigning: the target electoral support diminishes; the attacker in a negative campaign experiences a backlash; or, when multiple candidates or parties compete, a negative effect on the target of the attack, coupled with a backlash effect on the attacker, may benefit the other candidates, who refrained from going negative. This article reviews the state of the scholarship on negative campaigning and its impact on democracy. It sheds light on a rapidly evolving field of political science and communication research.

Going negative when spoiled for choice? Destabilizing and boomerang effects of negative political messaging in multiparty systems with multimember districts

ABSTRACT Classical electoral behaviour theories have associated possible benefits of negative campaigning with two-party plurality systems due to their zero-sum nature. Nevertheless, negative campaigning is a widely used electoral strategy outside of these contexts, despite scant evidence of its benefits for political parties and candidates who employ it. Our research question is simple – is negative campaign messaging effective for attackers in multiparty systems with multimember districts? Or does it create a ‘boomerang effect’ in this context, for which the producer of the message faces a backlash? Multiparty systems with multimember districts should, according to the literature, be scenarios where the effects of negative campaigning are most complex if not unpredictable. This paper uses Facebook political messages to inform a survey experiment design that tests the effects of negative political messaging on voters. We employ this survey in Ireland, which uses the single transferable vote, an electoral system which magnifies outcome uncertainty for attackers. Our results suggest that negative messaging in this context produces both the intended effect and a boomerang effect for the sponsor of the message. These countervailing results suggest a net null effect for the efficacy of negative messaging.

Persuasion and gender: experimental evidence from two political campaigns

AbstractWe investigate differential responses by gender to competitive persuasion in political campaigns. We implemented a survey and a field experiment during two mayoral elections in Italy. Eligible voters were exposed to a positive or negative campaign by an opponent. The survey experiment used on-line videos and slogans. The field experiment used door-to-door canvassing. In both experiments, gender differences emerge. Females vote more for the opponent and less for the incumbent when exposed to positive—as opposed to negative—campaigning. Males do the opposite. These differences cannot be explained by gender identification, ideology, or other voters’ observable attributes.

‚That’s Not Appropriate!‘ Examining Social Norms as Predictors of Negative Campaigning

‚That’s Not Appropriate!‘ Examining Social Norms as Predictors of Negative Campaigning

Consumer affinity as a key factor to mitigate reluctance to buy foreign products: The moderating role of organic and induced image to counteract negative communication campaigns and image crises

Research background: Anti-consumption practices, in particular consumers’ reluctance to buy (RTB) foreign products, are increasingly common in today’s globalised and interconnected markets. This phenomenon is accentuated by the impact of negative consumer dispositions (e.g., animosity or ethnocentrism), which contribute to an unfavourable perception of foreign products and, consequently, increase RTB. However, knowledge about possible factors that may mitigate this RTB foreign products is limited, and even less is known about the influence that positive dispositions (e.g., affinity) may have on consumer perceptions and consumption/non-consumption decisions. Moreover, consumers are inundated with information from various sources, which can significantly influence their perceptions and image of a product-country, especially in a context associated with negative communication campaigns and image crises. Purpose of the article: This research delves into the study of consumer affinity towards a foreign country, understood as an emotional feeling or positive disposition of a consumer that may mitigate their RTB foreign products, which often results from negative communication campaigns and a country-product image crisis. In addition, its influence on perceived risk and value, and the impact of these on RTB, is investigated. The moderating effect of the organic and induced image formed by the consumer on the risk-value relationship is also analysed, determining whether the induced image undermines this relationship. Methods: The empirical study focuses on the Spanish agri-food sector, which has been the subject of negative communication campaigns and image crises in foreign markets. The conceptual model was tested in a sample of German consumers, as Germany is the primary destination country for these products and has also been the origin of several image crises in this sector. PLS-SEM was used to validate the proposed hypotheses. Findings & value added: This research underlines the importance of fostering feelings of affinity towards a country and its products as a means to counteract negative campaigns, increase perceived value and mitigate RTB in foreign destination markets. Companies and public institutions, which influence the formation of the induced image in consumers, can contribute to improving consumers’ perception of a product-country. By shedding light on these dynamics, this study offers valuable insights for companies trying to cope with image crises fuelled by negative communication campaigns, which are increasingly prevalent in the competitive international landscape.

Post-truth Era of Political Marketing: Manipulation Techniques and Their Impact on Public Opinion and Electoral Integrity in the USA

The study focused on the phenomenon of political marketing, political communication, and their application in world politics during the post-truth era with an emphasis on the territory of the United States of America. The aim of the study was to identify several aspects of these disciplines during the dynamic technological progress which makes it possible to develop misleading manipulative techniques and spread disinformation. The emerging issues of the current state of the online sphere such as abuse of personal data for one's own political gain, dissemination of false news that radicalizes the public and threats to the security of free and fair elections and a democracy relate to other concerns such as a polarized society and electoral integrity. Politics has always been, and will continue to be, an infinite number of shades of grey. Absolute honesty and elimination of negative advertising or propaganda is neither realistic nor desirable, though we consider it important to strive for more ethical election campaigns. The conclusion of this article can be applied to other studies that will continue the research on the given topic and will respond to the current challenges of democracy.

Evolution of Brazilian Democracy: Unveiling Election Dynamics in Political Issues, Negativity, and Acclaim

In recent years, Brazil, as the world’s fourth-largest democracy, witnessed the dominance of polarized and symbolically charged electoral campaigns on social media, culminating in the election of a populist political figure in 2018 and his subsequent defeat in 2022. Extensive research has indicated that political campaigns often sidelined substantive policy proposals in favor of negative and divisive issues. However, a critical gap remains in the absence of temporal investigations contrasting the prevalence of negativity and acclaim campaigns on social media platforms during elections. This study addresses this gap by examining associations between political issues and negative and acclaim campaigns across two Brazilian electoral campaigns. Drawing upon a sample of messages posted on Twitter (n = 1,191) during the presidential elections of 2018 and 2022, our study reveals associations between substantive political issues, such as education and health, and acclaim campaign strategies, while the divisive issues of Covid-19 and corruption are associated with negative campaign strategies. Moreover, the results suggest that gender policy is related to both acclaim and negative messages since it is a polarizing issue in Brazilian politics. Our study also shows an increased negativity trend, with the 2022 presidential election campaign more likely to be negative than in 2018. By conducting a temporal analysis of Brazil’s political context, our study sheds light on the evolving dynamics of political communication in the age of social media, contributing substantially to the literature on negativity in political campaigns.

Polarized Populists: Dark Campaigns, Affective Polarization, and the Moderating Role of Populist Attitudes

We investigate the antecedents of affective polarization in the American public, and focus specifically on the driving role of exposure to darker forms of campaign communication (negativity, incivility, populist rhetoric) and the intervening role of individual populist attitudes. Experimental evidence was gathered among a sample of US respondents (MTurk, N = 1,081); respondents were randomly exposed to a campaign message from a fictive candidate framed either positively or negatively, and afterwards asked to express their attitudes towards Democrats and Republicans. Results show that exposure to harsher forms of campaign negativity (character attacks associated with political incivility and populist messages) drives affective polarization upwards when compared to exposure to positive messages. We also show both a direct and moderating effect of populist attitudes: populist individuals are more likely to “like” negative campaign messages (they find them more amusing and fairer) and report higher levels of affective polarization. Furthermore, exposure to negative messages is associated with greater affective polarization particularly among respondents high in populist attitudes.

The rise of TikTok elections: the Australian Labor Party’s use of TikTok in the 2022 federal election campaigning

ABSTRACT TikTok is an influential social media platform. During the 2022 Australian Federal election, the major political parties used TikTok as a campaigning tool. This research analysed the TikTok videos from the Australian Labor Party (ALP). The analysis primarily considered how the posts use visibility labour and other TikTok-based performance tools. It was found that they actively engaged in visibility labour, and employed popular culture to frame political issues. For youth who may not be politically active, cultural references can serve as a shared symbolic resource, aiding them in navigating political expression. This makes such references crucial, as they can help engage young users. Although TikTok utilises a short-form approach, the videos can contain substantial content that has the power to persuade viewers. The ALP used popular culture trends and more traditional techniques such as negative campaigning and humour, to attract supporter attention, denigrate the opposition and, attract the attention of all voters.

A Comparative Analysis of Advertising in the 2020 Presidential Elections & Phoenix Mayoral Elections using Natural Language Processing

This language model examines advertisements used for political campaigns, specifically the 2023 Phoenix mayoral election. Political microtargeting looks at the tone of content throughout Instagram and Facebook ads during the 8 months leading up to the election. Through various processing techniques, both written and spoken language within ads was collected and used Facebook ad API, associated with a target demographic or group within the platform. This allows campaigns to send targeted messages to voters based on factors like location, media preference, associated political beliefs, age, and other critical variables. This data was then compared to a peer-reviewed study by the University of Amsterdam, that studied Facebook and Instagram ads 8 months before the 2020 US Presidential election. Media companies often offer paid advertisements to a targeted audience, and during highly polarized world events such as an election, uncivil negative ads can be pushed to groups to which the shown ideology appeals. (Votta, F.) The question posed by Votta in the comparative study was: “TO WHAT EXTENT IS POLITICAL MICROTARGETING USED BY POLITICAL ADVERTISERS TO DELIVER TOXIC CAMPAIGN MESSAGES?” To study whether this optimization was occurring, the advertisements were run through a multilevel ordinal regression(Votta [https://www.aup-online.com/content/journals/10.5117/CCR2023.1.001.VOTT] et al., 2023). They took ads from official political campaigns and compared them to third-party groups. They then analyzed the size of the desired audience and compared the size of the audience to the verbal tone of the listed advertisement. Our results indicate that while traditional media remains an important part of electoral voting, show out, and postage signs and campaign events serve a purpose in reaching a wide, unrestricted audience, social media advertising presents a valuable resource in targeting specific groups of individuals who will be most susceptible to guided advertisement. Last, we analyze the implications of our findings in the 2020 Phoenix mayoral election, how city elections differ from a presidential election, and how micro-targeted advertisements might affect voter behavior.

NARRATIVE OF IDENTITY POLITICS IN THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA: CRITICAL DISCOURSE ANALYSIS

Objective: This research investigates the effects of social media on the quality and functioning of democracy in Indonesia, especially in relation to the 2017 DKI Governor Election and the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Social media is a vital platform for political participation, mobilization and expression, as it enables citizens to access information, voice their opinions and engage with diverse perspectives. However, social media also poses risks and challenges for democracy, as it can be used to manipulate public opinion, spread misinformation and incite violence. Theoritical framework: The influence of negative campaigns on voting behavior and political participation has also been a focus of research, with studies analyzing the impact of campaign narratives and media attention on election outcomes. In this context, many studies have highlighted how campaigns dominated by negative narratives can influence voters' opinions and attitudes. Negative campaigns tend to focus attention on the weaknesses and defects of political opponents, often leading to polarization and dissatisfaction with the political process as a whole. Apart from that, the role of the media in strengthening or balancing the campaign narrative is also an important aspect to be researched. The mass media has great power in strengthening the narratives conveyed by candidates and political parties through the coverage, analysis and opinions they convey to the public. In this case, media attention to certain campaign narratives can influence voter perceptions and preferences. Methods: The research examines how social media was used by different political actors and groups to support or oppose Anies Baswedan, who was a candidate for the governor of DKI Jakarta in 2017 and is now a presidential candidate backed by the Nasdem Party, PKB and PKS. The research also analyzes the impact of social media on the political culture and values of the Indonesian society, as well as the opportunities and limitations for enhancing democratic accountability and transparency through social media. The data collection methods include interviews, document analysis and internet-based sources and social media from 2016 to 2017 Result & Conclusion: The research findings show that social media has both positive and negative effects on democracy, as it can foster civic engagement, deliberation and pluralism, but also create polarization, distrust and intolerance. Social media is the third most popular medium for spreading campaign content, after television and newspapers. The campaign content in the 2017 DKI Governor election was then used in a national context to undermine Anies Baswedan as a presidential candidate, who was backed by the Nasdem Party and PKB, who were his political adversaries in the 2017 DKI Jakarta Governor election. Research Implications: Highlights the importance of responsible social media strategies to support democracy, recommending enhanced digital literacy and content regulation. Originality/Value: Provides a unique analysis of the impact of social media on political elections in Indonesia, offering insights into changing campaign strategies and socio-political interactions.

Likes vs. Loves (and Other Emoji Reactions): Facebook, Women, and the Gender Emoji Gap in US Election Campaigns

In 2017, Facebook’s news feed algorithm began weighting emoji reactions (e.g., love and angry) as five times more valuable than the like button. Such a change is theoretically intriguing because existing research largely suggests that women tend to use emojis more than men on social media. Within the context of political campaigns, prior work has revealed a host of other “gender gaps,” from documenting men’s and women’s differing tolerance for negative campaigns, to examining variations in online political participation and—more broadly—charting gendered imbalances in party demographic support. To date, however, no study has looked to investigate this potential gender emoji gap within the online political environment. This paper explores just such a gap, combining data across three US election cycles (2016–2020), over thirty million individual observations, and thousands of (federal and state) candidates. The data shows that women exhibited a greater preference for emoji reactions than men in response to posts from the 2016 presidential election candidates. Party, and candidate negativity, also appeared to moderate this effect. Likely due to this (moderated) gender gap, Democratic candidates continued to see a much higher proportion of emoji reactions to their posts, than Republicans in 2018, and 2020. In turn, the results offer clear evidence of a persistent emoji gender gap in US political campaigns on Facebook. Such findings strengthen our theoretical understanding of political communication and behavior online, and prompt important questions going forward for future research.

Can term limits reduce political sabotage? Evidence from negative campaigning in gubernatorial races

Can term limits reduce political sabotage? Evidence from negative campaigning in gubernatorial races

Negative campaign statements, coalition heterogeneity, and the support for government parties

European party systems have become increasingly complex in recent years, resulting in ideologically more heterogeneous coalition governments with far-reaching policy compromises. Consequently, an important goal of the parties' electoral campaign strategies is to present the voters a distinct policy profile on which the electorate can evaluate the competing parties. We argue that voters reward those coalition parties that attack their government partners in the election campaign and try to clarify their programmatic positions with the help of a more aggressive campaign strategy. Based on data from the CSES, the Comparative Manifesto Project database and a novel data base on party campaign statements in seven European countries from 2007 to 2018, we find that voters’ support for coalition parties increases if the latter attack their partners in the last four weeks before election day. Yet, this relationship is only observable in contexts when the ideological diversity of the incumbent coalition government is rather low.

Indonesian's Position in the World Vegetable Oil Trade

Indonesia's position as the largest vegetable oil producer is very strong in the world trade. Nonetheless, the Netherlands and Malaysia trade the Indonesian palm oil, which leads to a significant generation of profits. This research demonstrates the role of Indonesia in the global trade of vegetable oil. It illustrates the rivalry among vegetable oil producers and exporters and the dependence of vegetable oil importers on Indonesia. The annual volume data of vegetable oil production, export, and import sourced from FAO STAT in 2010-2020 were used. The data were processed and analyzed using descriptive statistics. Palm oil is the most widely acquired vegetable oil. The production of this oil is plentiful, and its price is the most economical compared to other vegetable oils. Soybean oil was the main competitor of palm oil, with the primary producers being China and the United States. The negative campaign against Indonesian palm oil could not weaken Indonesia's competitiveness in the global vegetable oil trade. Indonesia should limit palm oil exports to Europe and Malaysia while increasing exports to countries that only use it for domestic consumption. Coconut oil had the most potential to increase vegetable oil production in Indonesia. Indonesia's prominence in the global trade of edible oil is supreme. However, this preeminent status may be deteriorated by nations engaged in the commerce of Indonesian palm oil. Therefore, Indonesia should continuously update the world vegetable oil trade map to emphasize the point and level of export elevation or reduction. Indonesia should also develop and increase the production of other vegetable oil products to strengthen its position in the world's oil trade.

ANALYZING NEGATIVE ADVERTISEMENTS FROM LEGAL FRAMEWORK IN INDONESIA AND THE IMPACT ON INDONESIA BUSINESS

<p><em>Negative advertisement has been a marketing strategy in Indonesia’s business world. However, the debate around this strategy has occurred due to divided opinion. While several parties agreed that it is a common practice, others are against negative advertisements since the impact will corrupt the vision of a sustainable economy in Indonesia entirely and have negative impacts on the development of Indonesian business. This research analyses the legality of negative advertisements in Indonesia in various contexts, such as Consumer Protection Law, Information and Electronic Transaction Law, and Fair Business Competition Law.</em></p><p><em>Later, the research will discuss the impacts of existing laws on negative advertisements and recommendations on how to tackle the negative impacts of negative advertisements. Finally, the research is done by the normative-judicial method. It explores the element of law-sociology to explain the phenomenon of negative advertisement and the future impacts due to the flaws of existing laws.</em></p>

Framing Kegagalan Pemerintah Pada Media Sosial Partai Keadilan Sejahtera Jelang Pemilu 2024

The 2024 Indonesian election campaign time has not officially started, but the fight for public sympathy and votes has already begun long before it. Candidates and Parties, already busy performing, either positive publicity for themselves, or negative campaign for the opposing party. This research aims to observe framing strategies that already appear on social media, ahead of the 2024 elections. The topic chosen was the framing of government failure, with the social media studied is the Instagram account of the Keadilan Sejahtera Party (PKS), which can be considered the government's opposition party. The data that will be discussed is content in June to July 2023 which is considered relevant enough to show PKS's political communication ahead of the 2024 elections. This article uses a descriptive qualitative research methodology with Entman model framing analysis. The focus of the research is problem identification, causal interpretation, moral evaluation, treatment recommendation, which appear in the Instagram content. The research conclusion states that there is indeed a framing of state failure in the content studied. PKS carried out framing which essentially explained that the government did not side with its citizens, and the government betrayed the community's mandate. This framing was also accompanied by strengthening the PKS political brand; “PKS is always with the People”.