Project In Near Future Research Articles

Climate projections of oceanographic variables in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Ecuador: A 21st century perspective to inform impact and adaptation assessment

Climate projections of ocean variables are essential to inform adaptation strategies and plans involving open and coastal oceanic regions. Assessment of baseline and projections of sea surface temperature (SST), pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), mean sea level (MSL), waves coastal flooding within Ecuador’s Exclusive Economic Zone, including Galapagos Islands are reported herein. With different magnitudes of change, both near-future (2021–2050) and far-future projections (2051–2080) show a statistically robust increase in SST, MSL rise and a reduction in pH, a proxy for acidification. In contrast, DO decrease is only observed in surface (0–100 m) but not in subsurface waters (100–400 m). The likelihood of extreme sea level events in the coastal cities of La Libertad, Manta and Esmeraldas would remain almost unchanged for near-future projections (2026–2045) whereas, for end-of-century projections (2081–2100), historical 1 in a 100-year extreme flooding events would become yearly occurrences. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change. Since the eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean is one of the most productive and biodiverse worldwide due to the equatorial upwelling system, possible impacts on marine biodiversity, social, and economic systems are discussed.

Near-Future Projection of Sea Surface Winds in Northwest Pacific Ocean Based on a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble

Information about wind variations and future wind conditions is essential for a monsoon domain such as the Northwest Pacific (NWP) region. This study utilizes 10 Generalized Circulation Models (GCM) from CMIP6 to evaluate near-future wind changes in the NWP under various climate warming scenarios. Evaluation against the ERA5 reanalysis dataset for the historical period 1985–2014 reveals a relatively small error with an average of no more than 1 m/s, particularly in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS). Future projections (2026–2050) indicate intensified winds, with a 5–8% increase in the summer season in the EAMS, such as the Yellow Sea, East Sea, and East China Sea, while slight decreases are observed in the winter period. Climate mode influences show that winter El Niño tends to decrease wind speeds in the southern study domain, while intensifying winds are observed in the northern part, particularly under SSP5-8.5. Conversely, summer El Niño induces higher positive anomalous wind speeds in the EAMS, observed in SSP2-4.5. These conditions are likely linked to El Niño-induced SST anomalies. For the application of CMIP6 surface winds, the findings are essential for further investigations focusing on the oceanic consequences of anticipated wind changes such as the ocean wave climate, which can be studied through model simulations.

Uncertainty of the Simulated Mid-Pliocene Changes of Sahel Summer Rainfall in the PlioMIP2 Multimodel Ensemble

Abstract The mid-Pliocene (approximately 3.3–3.0 Ma) was one of the past geological warm periods. Since this past warmer climate was in many respects comparable to near future warming projections, how the regional monsoonal rainfall changed during the mid-Pliocene is an important scientific and socioeconomic concern. Based on phase 2 of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), this work examines the simulated changes of Sahel summer rainfall during the mid-Pliocene. The results show the considerable intermodel uncertainty of the simulated mid-Pliocene Sahel rainfall changes in the PlioMIP2 multimodel ensemble, which is due to the uncertainties of both the simulated dynamic and thermodynamic responses to this past warmer climate. In particular, we find that the intermodel spread in the simulated northern North American warming is a major source of the uncertainty of the mid-Pliocene Sahel summer rainfall changes through two processes. One is a direct dynamic process: a stronger warming over northern North America could enhance the meridional temperature gradient between the extratropical and tropical regions, inducing an interhemisphere energy imbalance of the atmosphere. This could lead to a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, strengthening the Western African summer monsoon (WASM) circulation and Sahel summer rainfall. Another is an indirect thermodynamic process: the strengthened WASM circulation could further induce anomalous moisture convergence over the Sahel region, increasing local atmospheric moisture at the low-level troposphere, in favor of a wetter Sahel. Our results suggest that an improved warming simulation over northern North America is essential for the hydrological cycle simulation around the Sahel in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate. Significance Statement The Sahel summer rainfall change in a global warmer climate is a widespread scientific and socioeconomic issue because of its important impacts on regional agriculture, ecosystems, food security, water resources, and even cultural environment. However, the present study identifies a nonnegligible intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene (one of the most recent geological warm periods in Earth’s history) in the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP2) multimodel ensemble. In particular, such an intermodel uncertainty of the simulated Sahel rainfall changes during the mid-Pliocene is attributed to that of the simulated northern North America warming via both the direct dynamic process and the indirect thermodynamic process. This is quite different from the uncertainty source of near-future projections of Sahel summer rainfall changes. The present results improve our understanding of the underlying physics of the hydrological cycle change around the Sahel region in the mid-Pliocene warmer climate, with implications for the future projections of regional monsoonal rainfall.

Optical observations and spatio-temporal projections of gelatinous zooplankton in the Fram Strait, a gateway to a changing Arctic Ocean

Global warming causes profound environmental shifts in the Arctic Ocean, altering the composition and structure of communities. In the Fram Strait, a transitional zone between the North-Atlantic and Arctic Ocean, climate change effects are particularly pronounced and accelerated due to an increased inflow of warm Atlantic water. Gelatinous zooplankton are known as key predators, consuming a great variety of prey and playing an important role in marine ecosystems. Insufficient knowledge of how gelatinous zooplankton are affected by environmental change has resulted in a notable gap in the understanding of the future state of Arctic ecosystems. We analyzed the diversity and abundance of gelatinous zooplankton down to 2600 m depth and established the first regional baseline dataset using optical observations obtained by the towed underwater camera system PELAGIOS (Pelagic In situ Observation System). Our data estimate the abundance of 20 taxa of gelatinous zooplankton. The most abundant taxa belong to the family of Rhopalonematidae, mainly consisting of Aglantha digitale and Sminthea arctica, and the suborder Physonectae. Using the observational data, we employed a joint species distribution modelling approach to better understand their distributional patterns. Variance partitioning over the explanatory variables showed that depth and temperature explained a substantial amount of variation for most of the taxa, suggesting that these parameters drive diversity and distribution. Spatial distribution modelling revealed that the highest abundance and diversity of jellyfish are expected in the marginal sea-ice zones. By coupling the model with climate scenarios of environmental changes, we were able to project potential changes in the spatial distribution and composition of gelatinous communities from 2020 to 2050 (during the summer season). The near-future projections confirmed that with further temperature increases, gelatinous zooplankton communities in the Fram Strait would become less diverse but more abundant. Among taxa of the Rhopalonematidae family, the abundance of Aglantha digitale in the entire water column would increase by 2%, while a loss of up to 60% is to be expected for Sminthea arctica by 2050. The combination of in situ observations and species distribution modelling shows promise as a tool for predicting gelatinous zooplankton community shifts in a changing ocean.

Cosmological phase transitions, gravitational waves and self-interacting dark matter in the singlet extension of MSSM

In the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) extended by a singlet superfield, when the coupling between the singlet sector and the MSSM sector is tiny, the singlet sector can be a quasi dark sector with supersymmetry (SUSY). We investigate the cosmological phenomena in this scenario and obtain the following observations: (i) In the parameter space solving the small cosmological scale anomalies via self-interacting singlino dark matter (SIDM), a first-order phase transition (FOPT) can readily happen but requires rather light dark matter below MeV; (ii) The corresponding parameter space indicated by FOPT and SIDM can be partially covered by detecting the phase-transition gravitational waves (GWs) at the near-future projects, such as LISA, TianQin and Taiji. Therefore, the recently developed GW astronomy could be a novel probe to such a SUSY scenario.

Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection

Northern Hemisphere (NH) climate has experienced various coherent wintertime multidecadal climate trends in stratosphere, troposphere, ocean, and cryosphere. However, the overall mechanistic framework linking these trends is not well established. Here we show, using long-term transient forced coupled climate simulation, that large parts of the coherent NH-multidecadal changes can be understood within a damped coupled stratosphere/troposphere/ocean-oscillation framework. Wave-induced downward propagating positive stratosphere/troposphere-coupled Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and associated stratospheric cooling initiate delayed thermohaline strengthening of Atlantic overturning circulation and extratropical Atlantic-gyres. These increase the poleward oceanic heat transport leading to Arctic sea-ice melting, Arctic warming amplification, and large-scale Atlantic warming, which in turn initiates wave-induced downward propagating negative NAM and stratospheric warming and therefore reverse the oscillation phase. This coupled variability improves the performance of statistical models, which project further weakening of North Atlantic Oscillation, North Atlantic cooling and hiatus in wintertime North Atlantic-Arctic sea-ice and global surface temperature just like the 1950s–1970s.

A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections

The observational records have shown a strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) since 1979. However, whether the observed change is forced by external forcing or internal variability remains inconclusive, a solid answer to more societal relevantly question of how the PWC will change in the near future is still a challenge. Here we perform a quantitative estimation on the contributions of external forcing and internal variability to the recent observed PWC strengthening using large ensemble simulations from six state-of-the-art Earth system models. We find the phase transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is an internal variability mode related to the Pacific, accounts for approximately 63% (~51–72%) of the observed PWC strengthening. Models with sufficient ensemble members can reasonably capture the observed PWC and IPO changes. We further constrain the projection of PWC change by using climate models’ credit in reproducing the historical phase of IPO. The result shows a high probability of a weakened PWC in the near future.

Historical Shoreline Analysis and Field Monitoring at Ennore Coastal Stretch along the Southeast Coast of India

A shoreline change analysis has been carried out for the coastal stretch from Ennore creek to Karungali village located along the southeast coast of India. This 15 km-long coastal stretch had undergone significant changes such as erosion and accretion concerning infrastructure developments and leading to large impact on the livelihood of the community. To assess the shoreline changes, the analysis of multi-temporal satellite images has been carried out. A historical trend is established for the study period from 1991 to 2019. The analysis has been made in three timelines considering various developing activities. There was no significant coastal infrastructure development during 1991 to 1999; however, between 1999 and 2009, a major port, pier, and a groyne field were constructed. Additionally, a port was established between 2009 and 2019. Erosion was observed on the coast from Kattupalli to Karungali at a rate of −16.85 m/yr since 2009, while the coast on the south of Ennore port is accreting at the rate of +12.43 m/yr during the same period. The near-future projection using a linear regression model shows further erosion in the coast under similar conditions. The results of this study provide a baseline data for future anthropogenic activities along this coast.

An Examination of Compound Flood Hazard Zones for Past, Present, and Future Low-Gradient Coastal Land-Margins

Recent events worldwide demonstrate how coastal communities of integrated natural and human systems are exposed to hydrological and coastal flooding processes. Standard flood hazard assessment practices account independently for rainfall-runoff, tides, storm surge flooding and not the non-linear combination commonly defined as compound flooding. This research evaluates compound flood hazard zones for past, present, and future (c. 1890–2090) conditions of the Mississippi River Delta Plain (MRDP). The MRDP provides a low-gradient coastal land-margin representing similar landscapes around the world that are experiencing relative sea-level rise and serves as a warning beacon for our coastal settlements. A set of plausible synthetic storms and rainfall events, which account for antecedent rainfall-runoff, tropical cyclone-driven rainfall, and tropical cyclone-driven surge, are employed in a tide and surge hydrodynamic model that integrates rain over the mesh. This study demonstrates the evolution of the compound flood hazard zones from the 1890s, before major western settlement and alterations to the Mississippi River and deltaic system, to the present day and out to 2090. Furthermore, near-future projections of the compound flood hazard zones suggest that the coastal flood zone will suffer the most significant changes in coverage area due to a combination of increasing eustatic sea-level rise and alterations to the coastal land-margin during low flood events. Our results emphasize the need to establish evolution trends of compound flood hazard zones to enable more descriptive future projections under a changing climate. Such projections will aid policy-makers, stakeholders, and authorities as they pursue enhanced coastal resilience to compound flooding.

Interactive effects of increased temperature and gadolinium pollution in Paracentrotus lividus sea urchin embryos: a climate change perspective

Gradual ocean warming and marine heatwaves represent major threats for marine organisms already facing other anthropogenic-derived hazards, such as chemical contamination in coastal areas. In this study, the combined effects of thermal stress and exposure to gadolinium (Gd), a metal used as a contrasting agent in medical imaging which enters the aquatic environment, were investigated in the embryos and larvae of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus. Embryos were exposed to six treatments of three temperatures (18 °C, 21 °C, 24 °C) and two Gd concentrations (control: 0 μM; treated: 20 μM). With respect to developmental progression, increased temperature accelerated development and achievement of the larval stage, while Gd-exposed embryos at the control temperature (18 °C) showed a general delay in development at 24 h post-fertilization (hpf), and a stunting effect and impaired skeleton growth at 48 hpf. Elevated temperatures at near-future projections (+3 °C, 21 °C) reduced the negative effects of Gd on development with a lower percentage of abnormality and improved skeleton growth. Combined extreme warming at present-day marine heatwave conditions (+6 °C, 24 °C) and Gd treatment resulted in a lower proportion of embryos reaching the advanced larval stages compared to the 21 °C + Gd. At the molecular level, western blot analysis showed that Gd was the main driver for the induction of heat shock protein (HSP60, HSP70) expression. At 48 hpf, temperature increase was the main driver for activation of additional cellular stress response strategies such as autophagy and apoptosis. Combined treatments showed the induction of HSP60 at 24 hpf and autophagic and apoptotic processes at 48 hpf. Treatments having low levels of HSPs expression showed high levels of apoptosis, and vice versa, clearly demonstrating the antagonistic effects of HSPs expression and apoptosis. Detection of fragmented DNA in apoptotic nuclei showed selective apoptosis, likely in extremely damaged cells. Our results indicate that the negative effects of Gd-exposure on P. lividus larval development and biomineralization will be mitigated by a near-future ocean warming, up to a thermotolerance threshold when negative synergistic effects were evident. Our data highlight the use of biomarkers as sensitive tools to detect environmental impacts as well as the need for a better understanding of the interactions between the multiple stressors faced by marine species in coastal environments.

Community composition influences the population growth and ecological impact of invasive species in response to climate change.

Predicting long-term impacts of introduced species is challenging, since stressors related to global change can influence species-community interactions by affecting both demographic rates of invasive species and the structure of the invaded ecosystems. Invasive species can alter ecosystem structure over time, further complicating interactions between invasive species and invaded communities in response to additional stressors. Few studies have considered how cumulative impacts of species invasion and global change on the structure of invaded ecosystems may influence persistence and population growth of introduced species. Here, we present an empirically based population model for an invasive epiphytic bryozoan that can dramatically alter the structure of its invaded kelp bed ecosystems. We use this model to predict the response of invasive species to climate change and associated changes in the invaded community. Population growth of the bryozoan increased under near-future projections of increasing ocean temperature; however, the magnitude of population growth depended on the community composition of invaded kelp beds. Our results suggest that, in some cases, indirect effects of climate change mediated through changes to the structure of the invaded habitat can modulate direct effects of climate change on invasive species, with consequences for their long-term ecological impact. Our findings have important implications for management of invasive species, as modifying invaded habitats at local to regional scales may be more logistically feasible than addressing stressors related to global climate change.

Industrial-buying research 1965-2015: review and analysis

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the underlying knowledge structure and evolution of industrial-buying research published between 1965 and 2015.Design/methodology/approachBibliometric analysis is performed on 357 relevant papers (using principal component analysis and natural language processing, using VantagePoint® tools, used to generate bubble maps, auto-correlation maps and Aduna cluster maps), demonstrating how various factors involved in industrial buying have evolved, their degree of correlation with each other and the interrelationships of multiple factors concerning their co-occurrences.FindingsThe systematic mapping of industrial-buying research would illustrate the development of the significant factors in industrial-buying research. This paper provides both a global perspective on the leading countries and journals in the field and a robust roadmap for further investigation in this field.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper is limited to the data considered for analysis and may, therefore, overlook or underestimate some work that has not been captured while filtering databases related to industrial buying.Practical implicationsThis paper facilitates near-future projection and trend analysis in industrial-buying research.Originality/valueThe methodology used is unique to the field of business-to-business marketing.

Changes in Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks under the Background of Arctic Amplification

Abstract An interdecadal weakening in the North Atlantic storm track (NAST) and a poleward shift of the North Pacific storm track (NPST) are found during October–March for the period 1979–2015. A significant warming of surface air temperature (Ts) over northeastern North America and a La Niña–like change in the North Pacific under the background of Arctic amplification are found to be the contributors to the observed changes in the NAST and the NPST, respectively, via modulation of local baroclinicity. The interdecadal change in baroclinic energy conversion is consistent with changes in storm tracks with an energy loss from eddies to mean flow over the North Atlantic and an energy gain over the North Pacific. The analysis of simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project, although with some biases in storm-track and Ts simulations, supports the observed relationship between the NAST and Ts over northeastern North America, as well as the link between the NPST and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The near-future projections of Ts and storm tracks are characterized by a warmer planet under the influence of increasing greenhouse gases and a significant weakening of both the NAST and the NPST. The potential role of the NAST in redistributing changes in Ts over the surrounding regions is also examined. The anomalous equatorward moisture flux associated with the weakening trend of the NAST would enhance the warming over its upstream region and hinder the warming over its downstream region via modulation of the downward infrared radiation.

Industrial culture and contemporary project design: examples of experimental building construction systems

This paper intend to deepen, within the broad theme of technological culture, theory and practice of architectural project, at which industrial culture does and will refer the architectural project in the near future, emphasizing the potential that contemporary techniques are slowly but pervasively offering to the construction industry.

Application of a distributed catchment model to investigate hydrological impacts of climate change within Poyang Lake catchment (China)

The extreme cycles of flood and drought in the Poyang Lake catchment (China) place immense pressure on the region's water users and ecosystems. This study examines potential impacts of future climate change in the Poyang Lake catchment using the popular regional climate model, COSMO-CLM, and a distributed hydrological model, WATLAC. Near-future projections (2016–2035) indicate that the mean annual precipitation and temperature are expected to increase over the catchment, with the exception of some northern regions. Relative to the baseline period (1986–2005), the monthly mean precipitation is projected to increase in spring, summer and autumn (March-October), and to decrease in winter (November-February), with the most significant changes in September (62%) and January (−39%). Projected increases in monthly mean temperatures range from 0.3 to 1.4 °C, 0.2 to 0.7 °C, and 0.2 to 1.2 °C for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate scenarios RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Winter temperatures are expected to increase significantly regardless of the climate scenarios. WATLAC simulations indicate that future climate changes will lead to increased high flows in summer and reduced low flows in winter, in terms of both frequency and magnitude, suggesting a high likelihood of an increase in frequency and severity of flooding and droughts in the Poyang Lake catchment.

Dynamical Donwscaling for Railroad Areas in Eastern Amazon and Southeastern Brazil: Current Climate and Near-Future Projections

We performed a dynamic downscaling using REGCM4 regional model driven by MPI global model for current (1990/2012) and near-future (2015/2039) climate in order to characterize the seasonal rainfall regimes throughout the railroad areas in eastern Amazon and southeastern Brazil. The analysis of observational data for the current climate indicated the existence of pronounced spatial variations in rainfall regime across railroad regions during both the rainy and dry seasons. Although models have presented generalized underestimation, the regional model showed improvements on spatial representation and intensity of the rainfall in comparison with global model results. We reported the future projections taking into account the correction of simulated rainfall by the values of the biases found in each respective seasonal regime, so that the results are expressed by percentage changes of the future (2015/2037) relative to the current climate patterns. For the railroad in eastern Amazon, projections indicate a weak decrease of rainfall of about -15% in the rainy season (January to May), however during the dry season (June to October) are expected drastic reductions between -70% and -90% in south (Carajás in Pará state) and north (Sao Luis in Maranhao state) portions. Conversely, for the railroad in southeast Brazil, model projections point out for an increased rainfall regime during the rainy season (October to February) around +30% to +40% in the east part of the region over the Espírito Santo state.

Transgressive systems tract of a ria-type estuary: The Late Holocene Vilaine River drowned valley (France)

The understanding of control parameters of estuarine-infilling at different scales in time and space is important for near-future projections and better management of these areas facing sea-level change. During the last 20 years, the stratigraphy of late Quaternary estuaries has been extensively investigated leading to the development of depositional models which describe the sedimentary facies distribution according to changes in sea level, tidal range and wave activity but few of them describe in detail the influence of the estuarine geomorphology. On the Atlantic coast, recent studies provide a detailed understanding of the sedimentary infill succession of incised valleys during the late Holocene transgression with recent emphasis on the macrotidal bay of the Vilaine River in South Brittany. The latter has shown the importance of the inherited morphology in controlling the preservation of the sedimentary deposits. However, until now, there has been little information available on the geometry of the underlying bedrock of the estuary and its immediate approaches including the Holocene history of the most proximal part of the Vilaine River estuary. The recent acquisition of very-high resolution seismic reflection (Chirp) and sediment core data in the Vilaine Estuary provides the opportunity to address several of these issues leading to the identification of the controlling factors that played a role in the sedimentary filling of the estuary. The estuary of the Vilaine River is one of the most sheltered estuaries of the Atlantic coast and thus shows an excellent record of the successive transgressive phases since the last glacial period. The valley of this ria-type estuary is incised in the Hercynian magmatic and metamorphic rocks of the Armorican Massif along the striking branches of the South Armorican Shear Zone and filled with well-stratified sediments. The study of the morphology of the substratum in the estuary reveals narrow paleovalleys (1 km wide) with a maximum depth of 20 m. The shapes and dimensions of these paleovalleys are comparable with those observed upstream in the present-day Vilaine River valley. Facies analysis of seismic and sedimentary data, complemented by 21 AMS radiocarbon age dating, enables the reconstruction of the infilling of the estuarine valley. The valley is filled by Pleistocene to early Holocene alluvial, coarse-grained, pebbly sands overlain by mid- to late Holocene marine sands, silts and muds. From 10,000 to 5000 cal. BP, the marine transgression shows a rapid initial phase of transgression followed by a progressive slowing down which can be recognised over more than 90 km in an upstream direction. The rapid transgression developed homogeneously over the entire length of the estuary with a widespread expression of tidal currents (tide-dominated estuary). The slow phase of the transgression gives rise to a differentiated expression of the hydrodynamic factors according to the geomorphological setting. The sedimentary deposits of the innermost and narrow part of the estuary reflect a strong control of tidal and river currents when the influence of tidal currents increases at the expense of fluvial control in a downstream direction. The sedimentary filling of the outer reaches of estuary shows a strong influence of tidal currents modulated by changes in sea level where, from 5700 to 3000 cal. BP, the progressive decrease in accommodation space promotes the expression of wave action (wave-dominated estuary). Finally, from 5000 years BP to present day, the stabilisation of sea level gives birth to scour and lag sedimentary morphologies (scour and lag estuary). The sedimentary record appears thus strongly marked by the Holocene transgression and the geomorphological setting where hydrodynamic parameters superimposed on the geomorphological and eustatic contexts expressed in different ways in time and space govern the evolution of the estuarine system.

Hindcast Prediction and Near-Future Projection of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific Using CMIP5 Near-Term Experiments with MIROC

In line with the experimental design for near-term climate prediction toward the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we perform ensembles of initialized decadal hindcast and near-future projection using three versions of the coupled atmosphereocean model MIROC. In the present study, we explore interannual and multiyear predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) using the initialized hindcasts and examine global warming impacts on TC activity in the near-future on the basis of near-future projections up to 2035. The hindcasts of year-to-year variation in TC number capture the observed values reasonably well. Moreover, interannual variability of TC genesis and occurrence frequency associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation are found to be predictable, mainly through better prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) and large-scale vorticity anomalies in the lower troposphere. These results indicate that the models can reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC genesis with large-scale circulation. Skillful prediction of TC number is likely difficult on multiyear timescales, at least based on our hindcasts, but through initializations, the three-year-mean hindcasts from 1998 onward reasonably capture observed major characteristics of TC activity associated with Pacific climate shift during the late 1990s. Near-future projections (20162035) suggest significant reductions (approximately 14%) in TC number, particularly over the western part of the WNP, even under scenarios in which projected global warming is less prominent than that at the end of this century. This reduction is likely due to the suppression of large-scale lower tropospheric vorticity and relative humidity and the enhancement of vertical wind shear. The projected SST exhibits a more pronounced warming over the eastern tropical Pacific than over the western region and accompanies the weakening ofWalker circulation via redistribution of tropical convection activity, which appears to be responsible for the change in the large-scale fields in the WNP.

Climate change and impacts on the hydrology of the Congo Basin: The case of the northern sub-basins of the Oubangui and Sangha Rivers

This study assesses the hydrological response of the Congo Basin’s runoff to future changes of climatic conditions. The study is carried out at the sub-basin scale in the northern part of the Congo Basin for which downscaled GCM data have been obtained. In order to assess the impacts of climate change scenarios on water resources availability of the Congo Basin, three downscaled and bias corrected GCMs were used to drive a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model which was initially established for the whole Congo Basin through manual calibration and physically-based a priori parameter estimation approaches. The analysis focuses on the variables of the hydrological processes such as rainfall, interception, potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture store, surface runoff, soil moisture runoff, and recharge. In general terms, the study shows that there is a decrease in runoff for the near-future projections in the northern part of the Congo Basin which has a tropical transition regime. For the three GCMs used in this study, there is very little change in rainfall from the historical conditions. The major change is observed in evapotranspiration, due to an increase in air temperature. There is a clear indication of the translation of climate signal into flows. There is more than 10% decrease in total runoff, which is a consequence of relatively little increase in rainfall and a consistent increase in potential evapotranspiration.

Time Series Observations at Dome C

We summarize the current discussions towards astronomical time-series observations at Dome C and emphasize some near-future projects. We define time-series as the continuous process of data taking that takes advantage of the unique time windows and observing conditions at Dome C. We emphasize that most of the current approaches to time-series astrophysics require a dedicated flux collector. In addition, some specific scientific topics may proceed with significant fractions of time on multi-purpose facilities. We consider only on those ideas and projects that were presented at least once during the various ARENA workshops and conferences. Topics of solar science are not considered in detail here.