NCAR Community Climate Model Version Research Articles

Radiation budget in RegCM4: simulation results from two radiative schemes over the South West Indian Ocean

One way to estimate solar resources required by the solar industry is via regional climate models (RCMs), which provide a comprehensive and physically based state-of-the-art description of the atmosphere and its interactions with the Earth’s surface. Here we describe the first application of RCM simulations with Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) for radiation fluxes over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). We analyzed the performance of RegCM4 on radiation fluxes, especially its radiative schemes presentation, which could provide basic information for surface solar radiation temporal-spatial variability analysis with RegCM4 over SWIO region. We used ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 2000-2005 to drive RegCM4 to simulate the radiation budget and associated parameters such as cloud cover, precipitation and surface temperature, over Southern Africa and the SWIO with a horizontal resolution of 50 km. The 2 existing available radiation schemes were tested and evaluated: (1) the default radiation scheme of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM); and (2) the recently implemented Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). To analyze the behavior of the radiation schemes and their impact on the surface climate, model outputs were validated against available satellite and reanalysis data. A comparison of the seasonal radiation budget as simulated by RegCM4-CCM and RegCM4-RRTM at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere showed good qualitative agreement. RegCM4 with the RRTM scheme generally better simulates the radiation budget and cloud cover over the whole domain with regard to the reference data than RegCM4 with the CCM scheme; RRTM could therefore be chosen as the radiative scheme in subsequent studies of surface solar radiation by RegCM4.

Sensitivity of the simulated East Asian summer monsoon climatology to four convective parameterization schemes

This study attempts to clarify the effects of parameterized convection on a simulated East Asian summer monsoon climatology from 1997 to 2006 within a regional climate model (RCM) framework. Four different convective parameterized schemes (CPSs) were chosen in the National Centers for the Environmental Prediction regional spectral model, the Simplified Arakawa‐Schubert (SAS), Relaxed Arakawa‐Schubert (RAS), NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM), and new Kain‐Fritsch (KF2) schemes. On the whole, there is no single scheme that outperforms the other in all aspects of the simulated climatology. The results show that the SAS and KF2 schemes are capable of reproducing the 10‐year June–July–August climatology with a certain wet bias over land and dry bias over the oceans. The SAS scheme is capable of resolving the interannual variations of the monsoon precipitation, and the KF2 is able to capture the intraseasonal variation. The RAS scheme significantly reduces precipitation over land compared to other schemes, but interannual variabilities are reasonably reproduced. On the contrary, the CCM scheme significantly overestimates the precipitation over land as well as ocean. Discernable differences among four CPSs are found in the distribution of the spatial spectrum, in which the KF2 scheme is the most effective in adding regional details to an external large‐scale forcing. The feasibility of a physics ensemble using different convection schemes and the impacts of domain size are also discussed.

Dynamical Effects of Convective Momentum Transports on Global Climate Simulations

Abstract Dynamical effects of convective momentum transports (CMT) on global climate simulations are investigated using the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3). To isolate the dynamical effects of the CMT, an experimental setup is proposed in which all physical parameterizations except for the deep convection scheme are replaced with idealized forcing. The CMT scheme is incorporated into the convection scheme to calculate the CMT forcing, which is used to force the momentum equations, while convective temperature and moisture tendencies are not passed into the model calculations in order to remove the physical feedback between convective heating and wind fields. Excluding the response of complex physical processes, the model with the experimental setup contains a complete dynamical core and the CMT forcing. Comparison between two sets of 5-yr simulations using this idealized general circulation model (GCM) shows that the Hadley circulation is enhanced when the CMT forcing is included, in agreement with previous studies that used full GCMs. It suggests that dynamical processes make significant contributions to the total response of circulation to CMT forcing in the full GCMs. The momentum budget shows that the Coriolis force, boundary layer friction, and nonlinear interactions of velocity fields affect the responses of zonal wind field, and the adjustment of circulation follows an approximate geostrophic balance. The adjustment mechanism of meridional circulation in response to ageostrophic CMT forcing is examined. It is found that the strengthening of the Hadley circulation is an indirect response of the meridional wind to the zonal CMT forcing through the Coriolis effect, which is required for maintaining near-geostrophic balance.

The Transient Atmospheric Circulation Response to North Atlantic SST and Sea Ice Anomalies

Abstract The objective of this study is to investigate the transient evolution of the wintertime atmospheric circulation response to imposed patterns of SST and sea ice extent anomalies in the North Atlantic sector using a large ensemble of experiments with the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3). The initial adjustment of the atmospheric circulation is characterized by an out-of-phase relationship between geopotential height anomalies in the lower and upper troposphere localized to the vicinity of the forcing. This initial baroclinic response reaches a maximum amplitude in ∼5–10 days, and persists for 2–3 weeks. Diagnostic results with a linear primitive equation model indicate that this initial response is forced by diabatic heating anomalies in the lower troposphere associated with surface heat flux anomalies generated by the imposed thermal forcing. Following the initial baroclinic stage of adjustment, the response becomes progressively more barotropic and increases in both spatial extent and magnitude. The equilibrium stage of adjustment is reached in 2–2.5 months, and is characterized by an equivalent barotropic structure that resembles the hemispheric North Atlantic Oscillation–Northern Annular Mode (NAO–NAM) pattern, the model’s leading internal mode of circulation variability over the Northern Hemisphere. The maximum amplitude of the equilibrium response is approximately 2–3 times larger than that of the initial response. The equilibrium response is primarily maintained by nonlinear transient eddy fluxes of vorticity (and, to a lesser extent, heat), with diabatic heating making a limited contribution in the vicinity of the forcing.

Coupling of Convective Momentum Transport with Convective Heating in Global Climate Simulations

Abstract The effects of convective momentum transport (CMT) on global climate simulations are examined in this study. Comparison between two sets of 20-yr (1979–98) integration using the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) illustrates that the inclusion of CMT in the convection scheme systematically modifies the climate mean state over the equatorial region. The convective momentum tendencies slow down the equatorward flow at higher latitudes near the surface and weaken the equatorial convergence and convection. This reduces the convective heating and drying around the equator and produces an improved meridional distribution within the upward branch of the Hadley circulation. The major heating peak during the boreal winter is moved to south of the equator at about 10°S, which is closer to the heat budget residuals of the ECMWF reanalysis data. The responses of meridional wind to the reduced heating result in the secondary meridional circulation within the intertropical convergence zone.

Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks over the Equatorial Cold Tongue: Results from Nine Atmospheric GCMs

Abstract The equatorial Pacific is a region with strong negative feedbacks. Yet coupled general circulation models (GCMs) have exhibited a propensity to develop a significant SST bias in that region, suggesting an unrealistic sensitivity in the coupled models to small energy flux errors that inevitably occur in the individual model components. Could this “hypersensitivity” exhibited in a coupled model be due to an underestimate of the strength of the negative feedbacks in this region? With this suspicion, the feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific in nine atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) have been quantified using the interannual variations in that region and compared with the corresponding calculations from the observations. The nine AGCMs are the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1 (CAM1), the NCAR Community Climate Model version 2 (CAM2), the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CAM3), the NCAR CAM3 at T85 resolution, the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Atmospheric Model, the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3), the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) model (LMDZ4), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) AM2p10, and the GFDL AM2p12. All the corresponding coupled runs of these nine AGCMs have an excessive cold tongue in the equatorial Pacific. The net atmospheric feedback over the equatorial Pacific in the two GFDL models is found to be comparable to the observed value. All other models are found to have a weaker negative net feedback from the atmosphere—a weaker regulating effect on the underlying SST than the real atmosphere. Except for the French (IPSL) model, a weaker negative feedback from the cloud albedo and a weaker negative feedback from the atmospheric transport are the two leading contributors to the weaker regulating effect from the atmosphere. The underestimate of the strength of the negative feedbacks by the models is apparently linked to an underestimate of the equatorial precipitation response. All models have a stronger water vapor feedback than that indicated in Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) observations. These results confirm the suspicion that an underestimate of the regulatory effect from the atmosphere over the equatorial Pacific region is a prevalent problem. The results also suggest, however, that a weaker regulatory effect from the atmosphere is unlikely solely responsible for the hypersensitivity in all models. The need to validate the feedbacks from the ocean transport is therefore highlighted.

Simulation of the North American Monsoon by the NCAR CCM3 and Its Sensitivity to Convection Parameterization

Abstract Two 9-yr runs of the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) are compared in their simulations of the North American summer monsoon. In a control simulation, the Zhang–McFarlane deep convection scheme is used. For an experimental simulation, the following modifications to the scheme are implemented. The closure is based on the large-scale forcing of virtual temperature, and a relative humidity threshold on convective parcels lifted from the boundary layer is applied. The sensitivity to these modifications for simulating the North American monsoon is investigated. Model validation relies on hourly precipitation rates from surface gauges over the United States, hourly precipitation rates derived from the combination of microwave and radar measurements from NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite over Mexico, and CAPE values as calculated from temperature, specific humidity, and pressure fields from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis. Results show that the experimental run improves the timing of the monsoon onset and peak in the regions of core monsoon influence considered here, though it increases a negative bias in the peak monsoon intensity in one region of northern Mexico. Sensitivity of the diurnal cycle of precipitation to modifications in the convective scheme is highly geographically dependent. Using a combination of gauge-based rainfall rates and reanalysis-based CAPE, it is found that improvements in the simulated diurnal cycle are confined to a convective regime in which the diurnal evolution of precipitation is observed to lag that of CAPE. For another regime, in which CAPE is observed to be approximately in phase with precipitation, model phase biases increase nearly everywhere. Some of the increased phase biases in the latter regime are primarily because of application of the relative humidity threshold.

Effect of subgrid cloud‐radiation interaction on climate simulations

The mosaic representation of subgrid cloud‐radiation interaction is implemented in the radiation scheme of the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) to investigate its impacts on global climate simulations. It is found that the CCM3 with the modified radiation scheme enables the use of more realistic cloud amounts as well as cloud water contents while producing net radiative fluxes closer to observations. The improved vertical distribution of cloud water path based on the cloud‐resolving model (CRM) simulations increases the radiative heating in the upper troposphere over the tropics, which reduces the long‐standing cold bias in the temperature field. Consequently, not only the representation of cloud‐radiation interactions is more physically consistent and accurate, but also the climate simulations are significantly affected and improved.

LGM Summer Climate on the Southern Margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet: Wet or Dry?*

Abstract Regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University (PSU)–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America to explore the summer climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. The simulated LGM summer climate is characterized by a pronounced low-level thermal gradient along the southern margin of the LIS resulting from the juxtaposition of the cold ice sheet and adjacent warm ice-free land surface. This sharp thermal gradient anchors the midtropospheric jet stream and facilitates the development of synoptic cyclones that track over the ice sheet, some of which produce copious liquid precipitation along and south of the LIS terminus. Precipitation on the southern margin is orographically enhanced as moist southerly low-level flow (resembling a contemporary Great Plains low-level jet configuration) in advance of the cyclone is drawn up the ice sheet slope. Composites of wet and dry periods on the LIS southern margin illustrate two distinctly different atmospheric flow regimes. Given the episodic nature of the summer rain events, it may be possible to reconcile the model depiction of wet conditions on the LIS southern margin during the LGM summer with the widely accepted interpretation of aridity across the Great Plains based on geological proxy evidence.

Simulated precipitation response to SST forcing and potential predictability in the region of the South Atlantic convergence zone

The sensitivity of the precipitation response in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is investigated by an inter-model comparison study of ensembles of multidecadal integrations of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)—version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) model, and the NCAR community climate model (CCM3) version 3.6.6. Despite the different physical parameterizations, the two models consistently show an SST-forced signal located mainly over the oceanic portion of the SACZ. The signal has interannual-to-decadal timescales, and consists of a shift and strengthening of the SACZ toward anomalous warm waters. A potential predictability analysis reveals that the maximum predictable variance is about 50% of the total SACZ variance over the ocean, but the signal attenuates rapidly toward the South American continent. This result implies that the land portion of the SACZ is primarily dominated by the internal variability, thereby having a limited potential predictability at seasonal timescales.

Polar MM5 Simulations of the Winter Climate of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at the LGM*

Optimized regional climate simulations are conducted using the Polar MM5, a version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University‐NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), with a 60-km horizontal resolution domain over North America during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 calendar years ago), when much of the continent was covered by the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). The objective is to describe the LGM annual cycle at high spatial resolution with an emphasis on the winter atmospheric circulation. Output from a tailored NCAR Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) simulation of the LGM climate is used to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for Polar MM5. LGM boundary conditions include continental ice sheets, appropriate orbital forcing, reduced CO2 concentration, paleovegetation, modified sea surface temperatures, and lowered sea level. Polar MM5 produces a substantially different atmospheric response to the LGM boundary conditions than CCM3 and other recent GCM simulations. In particular, from November to April the upper-level flow is split around a blocking anticyclone over the LIS, with a northern branch over the Canadian Arctic and a southern branch impacting southern North America. The split flow pattern is most pronounced in January and transitions into a single, consolidated jet stream that migrates northward over the LIS during summer. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the winter split flow in Polar MM5 is primarily due to mechanical forcing by LIS, although model physics and resolution also contribute to the simulated flow configuration. Polar MM5 LGM results are generally consistent with proxy climate estimates in the western United States, Alaska, and the Canadian Arctic and may help resolve some long-standing discrepancies between proxy data and previous simulations of the LGM climate.

Scale Interactions and Atmospheric Predictability: An Updated Perspective

An examination of the scale interactions in predictability experiments is made using the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 3 (CCM3) at various horizontal resolutions ranging from T42 to T170. Both identicalmodel and imperfect-model twin experiments are analyzed, and they show distinctive differences from the classical inverse cascade picture of predictability error growth. In the identical-model twin framework, error growth experiments using initial errors confined to long and short scales are compared and contrasted. In these cases, error growth eventually asymptotes to an exponential growth of baroclinically active scales. In the imperfect-model twin experiments, errors rapidly disperse from scales technically beyond model resolution to a small amplitude, spectrally uniform distribution of errors in resolved scales. The errors in resolved scales further amplify in a quasi-exponential growth of the baroclinically active scales. Finally, the implications of these growth mechanisms for the necessary resolution in short- to medium-range numerical weather prediction are given under the assumption that the accuracy of current initial state estimates of the atmosphere remain fixed at their present level.

Design of a Regional Climate Model for the Simulation of South China Summer Monsoon Rainfall

The objective of this study is to modify a regional climate model (RCM)—the Regional Climate Model of the National Climate Center of China—to simulate the summer monsoon rainfall over South China and the South China Sea. Such a modification is necessary because this RCM was designed for studying the climate over central and north China where precipitation processes are very different from those occurring further south so that simulations using the basic parameters of the original model give precipitation amounts much less than those observed.Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, many sensitivity experiments have been carried out for the months of April to June 1998, which include modifying the cumulus parameterization scheme, the large-scale precipitation scheme, the radiation scheme, the surface exchange processes, and the size of the buffer zone. The design of all the experiments is either to enhance the moisture provision to the atmosphere over South China and the South China Sea, or to help the model atmosphere realize the moisture to form precipitation. It is found that indeed modifications to the various parameters can produce rainfall amounts much closer to those observed.Based on the results of these experiments, an “optimal” design of the RCM is reached and tested for its effectiveness using the NCEP reanalyses for two wet years (1994 and 1997) and two dry years (1996 and 1999) during which rainfall in May and June over South China were above/below normal respectively. The physical processes in this design include the Kuo scheme for convective precipitation, the Pal scheme for large-scale precipitation, the Holtslag scheme for the planetary boundary layer, the radiation transfer scheme of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 3, and the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme for the land surface process. The width of the buffer zone is reduced and the effective cloud droplet radius is fixed at different values over land and ocean. The neutral drag coefficient is prescribed as a function of surface wind speed, and the heat and moisture exchange coefficients are set at values larger than that of momentum. The simulations based on this design for all the five years are found to be much closer to observations than those from the control.

Intraseasonal Eastern Pacific Precipitation and SST Variations in a GCM Coupled to a Slab Ocean Model

Abstract Coupling the NCAR Community Climate Model version 3.6 (CCM3.6) with relaxed Arakawa–Schubert convection to a slab ocean model (SOM) improves the simulation of eastern Pacific convection during a composite June–November intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) life cycle. Intraseasonal oscillations in the SOM simulation produce convective variability over the tropical northeastern Pacific that is similar to that produced by the observed Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). A composite ISO life cycle in the SOM simulation exhibits stronger, more coherent, and more widespread eastern Pacific warm pool convective anomalies than in a control simulation using climatological SSTs. Competing convective forcings over land and ocean make eastern Pacific low-level circulation anomalies more complex in the SOM simulation than in the observed MJO. Off-equatorial eastern Pacific SST variations of more than 0.6°C are associated with the June–November SOM simulation ISO. These variations are similar to those observed with th...

The impact of land cover change on the atmospheric circulation

The NCAR Community Climate Model (version 3), coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer scheme and a mixed layer ocean model is used to investigate the impact on the climate of a conservative change from natural to present land cover. Natural vegetation cover was obtained from an ecophysiologically constrained biome model. The current vegetation cover was obtained by perturbing the natural cover from forest to grass over areas where land cover has been observed to change. Simulations were performed for 17 years for each case (results from the last 15 years are presented here). We find that land cover changes, largely constrained to the tropics, SE Asia, North America and Europe, cause statistically significant changes in regional temperature and precipitation but cause no impact on the globally averaged temperature or precipitation. The perturbation in land cover in the tropics and SE Asia teleconnect to higher latitudes by changing the position and strength of key elements of the general circulation (the Hadley and Walker circulations). Many of the areas where statistically significant changes occur are remote from the location of land cover change. Historical land cover change is not typically included in transitory climate simulations, and it may be that the simulation of the patterns of temperature change over the twentieth century by climate models will be further improved by taking it into account.

Numerical Prediction of a Cold-Air Outbreak: A Case Study with Ensemble Forecasts

Abstract The forecastability of a cold-air outbreak over eastern North America during January 1985 has been studied with ensemble forecasts from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 2 run at T42 horizontal resolution. The cold-air outbreak case was characterized by a pool of very cold air (T < −35°C at 850 mb) that moved southward into the central United States and intensified. The ensemble’s 10 member forecasts were initialized at 0000 UTC 15 January 85, a few days before the cold-air pool began its southward movement and reached its peak intensity. The ensemble members predicted the southward passage of the cold air but faster and weaker than analyzed. The predicted weakening of the cold-air pool was consistent with the model’s systematic error. Quasi-Lagrangian diagnosis of the 850-mb temperature tendency budget revealed that the analyzed intensification of the cold-air pool was due to residual rather than adiabatic effects. These residual effects could have been diabatic in origin but also attribu...

Sensitivity of equilibrium surface temperature of CCM3 to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2

We have redone our computations of the equilibrium response of surface temperature to atmospheric CO2 concentrations using the latest version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (version 3 rather than version 1). Eight GCM simulations with CO2 concentrations varying from 180 to 3000 ppmv were conducted with CCM3 compared to six CO2 concentrations with CCM1. A preliminary examination of the CCM3 simulations showed the same basic non‐linear behaviour of temperature to CO2 concentrations obtained previously with CCM1. The magnitude of the sensitivities, however, were much lower in the new CCM3 runs than in the older CCM1 runs. Four possible reasons for the reduced sensitivity in CCM3 are discussed.

Paleoclimate simulations for North America over the past 21,000 years: features of the simulated climate and comparisons with paleoenvironmental data

Maps of upper-level and surface winds and of surface temperature and precipitation illustrate the results of a sequence of global paleoclimatic simulations spanning the past 21,000 yr for North America. We review (a) the large-scale features of circulation, temperature, and precipitation that appear in the simulations from the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM 1), (b) the implications of the simulated climate for the past continental-scale distributions of three plant taxa ( Picea spp., Pseudotsuga menziesii, and Artemisia tridentata), which are broadly representative of the vegetation across the continent, and (c) the potential explanations in terms of atmospheric circulation or surface energy- and water-balance processes for mismatches between the simulations and observations. Most of the broad-scale features of previous paleoclimatic simulations with the NCAR CCM 0 for North America are present in the current simulations. Many of the elements of a conceptual model (based on previous climate simulations) that describes the controls of paleoclimatic variations across North America during the past 21,000 yr are found in simulations reviewed here. These include (1) displacement of the jet stream by the Laurentide Ice Sheet to the south of its present position in both winter and summer, (2) generation of a ‘glacial anticyclone’ over the ice sheet at the LGM, and the consequent induction of large-scale sinking motions induced over eastern North America, (3) changes in the strength of surface atmospheric circulation features through time, including weakening of the Aleutian low in winter, and strengthening of the eastern Pacific and Bermuda high-pressure systems in summer as the ice sheet decreased in size, (4) development of a ‘heat low’ at the surface and a strengthened ridge in the upper-atmosphere over the continent at the time of the maximum summer insolation anomaly, (5) increases in summer temperature earlier in regions remote from the ice sheet (these increases appear earlier in the present (CCM 1) simulations than in the previous (CCM 0) ones, however), and (6) continuation of negative winter temperature anomalies into the middle Holocene. In general, simulated surface conditions that are discordant with paleoenvironmental observations can be attributed to the simulation of particular atmospheric circulation patterns (e.g. those that suppress precipitation or advect warm air into a region), with these mismatches amplified in Beringia and the southeastern United States by surface energy- and water-balance processes.

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Quantitative Precipitation

The impact of initial condition uncertainty (ICU) on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) is examined for a case of explosive cyclogenesis that occurred over the contiguous United States and produced widespread, substantial rainfall. The Pennsylvania State University‐National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model Version 4 (MM4), a limited-area model, is run at 80-km horizontal resolution and 15 layers to produce a 25-member, 36-h forecast ensemble. Lateral boundary conditions for MM4 are provided by ensemble forecasts from a global spectral model, the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1). The initial perturbations of the ensemble members possess a magnitude and spatial decomposition that closely match estimates of global analysis error, but they are not dynamically conditioned. Results for the 80-km ensemble forecast are compared to forecasts from the then operational Nested Grid Model (NGM), a single 40-km/15layer MM4 forecast, a single 80-km/29-layer MM4 forecast, and a second 25-member MM4 ensemble based on a different cumulus parameterization and slightly different unperturbed initial conditions. Large sensitivity to ICU marks ensemble QPF. Extrema in 6-h accumulations at individual grid points vary by as much as 3.000. Ensemble averaging reduces the root-mean-square error (rmse) for QPF. Nearly 90% of the improvement is obtainable using ensemble sizes as small as 8‐10. Ensemble averaging can adversely affect the bias and equitable threat scores, however, because of its smoothing nature. Probabilistic forecasts for five mutually exclusive, completely exhaustive categories are found to be skillful relative to a climatological forecast. Ensemble sizes of approximately 10 can account for 90% of improvement in categorical forecasts relative to that for the average of individual forecasts. The improvements due to short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) techniques exceed any due to doubling the resolution, and the error growth due to ICU greatly exceeds that due to different resolutions. If the authors’ results are representative, they indicate that SREF can now provide useful QPF guidance and increase the accuracy of QPF when used with current analysis‐forecast systems.

A sensitivity study of single column model

A single column model (SCM) is constructed by extracting the physical subroutines from the NCAR Community Climate Model version 1 (CCM1). Simulated data are generated by CCM1 and used to validate the SCM and to study the sensitivity of the SCM to errors in its input data. It is found that the SCM temperature predictions are moderately sensitive to errors in the input horizontal temperature flux convergence and moisture flux convergence. Two types of error are concerned in this study: random errors due to insufficient data resolution, and errors due to insufficient data area coverage. While the first type of error can be reduced by filtering and / or increasing the data resolution, it is shown that the second type of error can be reduced by enlarging the data area coverage and using a suitable method to compute the input flux convergence terms.