Nature Of Demography Research Articles

The Nature of Demography

The Nature of Demography

The Nature of Demography

In The Nature of Demography, the eminent French demographer Herve Le Bras presents an imaginative and compelling vision of what demography might become if it were to take seriously the scientific task of theory building and codification. Ranging across a wide array of substantive areas – mortality, fertility, marriage, migration, population projections, population and economic development, life-cycle economics and pensions, social mobility, settlement patterns, population density – Le Bras constructs simple (but not simplistic) mathematical models of population processes. The focus on process is central to his vision. Demographic measurement (a sort of land surveying applied to populations) is important, but secondary to the development of demography as an independent scientific discipline: Demography is a science of processes (p.345). It is necessary to get down to individual behaviour in real cohorts (time-lines in the language of the Lexis diagram), in short, to provide micro explanations for macro-demographic period observations. The latter are seen as unreliable guides to what is really going on, as a consequence of censoring (to which Le Bras devotes three chapters) and of wrong perspective: this interpretation reverses the true direction of the process, attempting to derive causes from their consequences (p.94). Le Bras works almost exclusively with mathematical models, spending little time on less rigorous conceptual or visual models. The models are constructed with an eye to specific empirical observations, and are solved analytically if possible, or by micro-simulation where necessary. A model is considered interesting and useful if it provides insight into the workings of the demographic system. A model is deemed empirically adequate if it can closely reproduce the original empirical observations. Le Bras does not speak of validity or truth of a model or theory. He avoids the logical fallacy of affirming the consequent by taking an ecumenical view of theory. Commenting on the large array of ________________________________ ________________________________ ________________________________

Book Reviews

David Lam of University of Michigan reviews “The Nature of Demography” by Herve Le Bras,. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins “Presents an overview of the fundamental ideas governing the study of present and future populations. Discusses mortality; fertility; censoring; period and cohort approaches; interpreting period variations in fertility; timing changes and period mortality; forecasts, projections, and prospects; stable populations and weak ergodicity; equilibrium and fluctuations; economics and population; life cycles and old-age pensions; the marriage market; the laws of migration; the four forms of internal migration; and densities. Le Bras is Director of Studies at the School of Higher Education in the Social Sciences and Director of Research at the National Institute of Demographic Studies. Index.”

Hervé Le Bras: The Nature of Demography

Hervé Le Bras: The Nature of Demography

The nature of demography - By Hervé Le Bras

The nature of demography - By Hervé Le Bras

The strengths and limitations of demography, and the works of W.D. Borrie

This lecture examines the nature of demography and how the work of W.D. Borrie relates to it. The principal topics are: the meaning of ‘demography’, changes in the discipline, the uniqueness of demography, population theories and ideologies, and the writings of W.D. Borrie.

The Role of Demographic Research in Anthropology

In the past several years demography has been of growing interest to anthropologists and publications in demographic anthropology have been rapidly increasing. Activities in this line of study are particularly noteworthy in the United States. For the purpose of stimulating demographic anthropology in Japan, the author attempts in this paper to briefly discuss about the nature of demography, possible contacts between demography and anthropology, and needs of demographic approach in anthropology. The focus of discussion is placed on the role of demography in enriching anthropology rather than on contributions of anthropology to population studies. The author emphasizes the importance of teaching formal demography or techniques of demographic analysis in the education of anthropology.