Natural Variation Research Articles

Genotype-specific nonphotochemical quenching responses to nitrogen deficit are linked to chlorophyll a to b ratios

Non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) protects plants from photodamage caused by excess light energy. Substantial variation in NPQ has been reported among different genotypes of the same species. However, comparatively little is known about how environmental perturbations, including nutrient deficits, impact natural variation in NPQ kinetics. Here, we analyzed a natural variation in NPQ kinetics of a diversity panel of 225 maize (Zea mays L.) genotypes under nitrogen replete and nitrogen deficient field conditions. Individual maize genotypes from a diversity panel exhibited a range of changes in NPQ in response to low nitrogen. Replicated genotypes exhibited consistent responses across two field experiments conducted in different years. At the seedling and pre-flowering stages, a similar portion of the genotypes (∼33%) showed decrease, no-change or increase in NPQ under low nitrogen relative to control. Genotypes with increased NPQ under low nitrogen also showed greater reductions in dry biomass and photosynthesis than genotypes with stable NPQ when exposed to low nitrogen conditions. Maize genotypes where an increase in NPQ was observed under low nitrogen also exhibited a reduction in the ratio of chlorophyll a to chlorophyll b. Our results underline that since thermal dissipation of excess excitation energy measured via NPQ helps to balance the energy absorbed with energy utilized, the NPQ changes are the reflection of broader molecular and biochemical changes which occur under the stresses such as low soil fertility. Here, we have demonstrated that variation in NPQ kinetics resulted from genetic and environmental factors, are not independent of each other. Natural genetic variation controlling plastic responses of NPQ kinetics to environmental perturbation increases the likelihood it will be possible to optimize NPQ kinetics in crop plants for different environments.

Recent progress and potential future directions to enhance biological nitrogen fixation in faba bean (Vicia faba L.).

The necessity for sustainable agricultural practices has propelled a renewed interest in legumes such as faba bean (Vicia faba L.) as agents to help deliver increased diversity to cropped systems and provide an organic source of nitrogen (N). However, the increased cultivation of faba beans has proven recalcitrant worldwide as a result of low yields. So, it is hoped that increased and more stable yields would improve the commercial success of the crop and so the likelihood of cultivation. Enhancing biological N fixation (BNF) in faba beans holds promise not only to enhance and stabilize yields but also to increase residual N available to subsequent cereal crops grown on the same field. In this review, we cover recent progress in enhancing BNF in faba beans. Specifically, rhizobial inoculation and the optimization of fertilizer input and cropping systems have received the greatest attention in the literature. We also suggest directions for future research on the subject. In the short term, modification of crop management practices such as fertilizer and biochar input may offer the benefits of enhanced BNF. In the long term, natural variation in rhizobial strains and faba bean genotypes can be harnessed. Strategies must be optimized on a local scale to realize the greatest benefits. Future research must measure the most useful parameters and consider the economic cost of strategies alongside the advantages of enhanced BNF.

Estimating emission flux of H2S from fumarolic fields using vertical sensor array system

The emission flux of volatiles from each fumarolic field in volcanic and geothermal areas can be used to evaluate the current state of magmatic activity and predict its future trends. The emission flux of SO2 has been quantified in many fumarolic fields using remote sensing techniques, such as differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS). However, most of these remote sensing techniques are inapplicable to fumarolic fields emitting volatiles depleted in SO2 to which most of the geothermal fields are classified. In this study, we developed a vertical sensor array system to quantify the emission flux of H2S from each fumarolic field by integrating the cross-sectional distributions of H2S concentrations in the volcanic plume using the vertical sensor array system. In Iwo-yama of the Kirishima volcanic complex, the cross-sectional distribution of H2S concentrations was determined using the walking traverse method by moving the vertical sensor array system in the plume perpendicular to the direction of plume transport. The emission flux of SO2 (2.2 ± 0.4 ton SO2/day) was estimated from that of H2S using the walking traverse method (2.6 ± 0.5 ton H2S/day) and the molar ratio of the plume (SO2/H2S=0.45) corresponds well with that estimated optically by JMA. We concluded that the emission flux quantified using the vertical sensor array system was reliable. In the Oyunuma pond in the Kuttara volcano, the emission flux of H2S was quantified as 2.0 ton H2S/day through the fixed point method, wherein the vertical sensor array system was fixed in one point, whereas the cross sectional distribution of H2S in the plume was estimated using the natural variation in wind direction. The topography is often irregular and wind direction is variable in most fumarolic fields; thus, in general, the fixed point method should be more suitable to determine the emission flux of H2S from fumarolic fields, wherein H2S occupies a major portion of the total sulfur emission.

On the state principle of classical thermodynamics

We discuss the state principle of classical thermodynamics, namely that the thermodynamic state of a simple compressible system can be uniquely determined by specifying two independent properties. We show that for certain combinations of properties, one is not guaranteed to arrive at a unique state. This caveat to the state principle is illustrated with three examples, two involving liquid water and a third using real gases. Finally, we show that to guarantee a unique state for a simple compressible system, the required two independent properties must be chosen from the trio consisting of a thermodynamic potential and its two natural variables.

Decadal Thermal Variability of the Upper Southern Ocean: Zonal Asymmetry

Abstract As the major sink of anthropogenic heat, the Southern Ocean has shown quasi-symmetric, deep-reaching warming since the mid-twentieth century. In comparison, the shorter-term heat storage pattern of the Southern Ocean is more complex and has notable impacts on regional climate and marine ecosystems. By analyzing observational datasets and climate model simulations, this study reveals that the Southern Ocean exhibits prominent decadal (>8 years) variability extending to ∼700-m depth and is characterized by out-of-phase changes in the Pacific and Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors. Changes in the Pacific sector are larger in magnitude than those in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sectors and dominate the total heat storage of the Southern Ocean on decadal time scales. Instead of heat uptake through surface heat fluxes, these asymmetric variations arise primarily from wind-driven heat redistribution. Pacemaker and preindustrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) suggest that these variations in Southern Ocean winds arise primarily from natural variability of the tropical Pacific, as represented by the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Through atmospheric teleconnection, the positive phase of the IPO gives rise to higher-than-normal sea level pressure and anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 50°–70°S band of the Pacific sector. These winds lead to warming of 0–700 m by driving the convergence of warm water. The opposite processes, involving cyclonic winds and upper-layer divergence, occur in the Atlantic–Indian Ocean sector. These findings aid our understanding of the time-varying heat storage of the Southern Ocean and provide useful implications on initialized decadal climate prediction.

Drivers of late Holocene ice core chemistry in Dronning Maud Land: the context for the ISOL-ICE project

Abstract. Within the framework of the Isotopic Constraints on Past Ozone Layer in Polar Ice (ISOL-ICE) project, we present initial ice core results from the new ISOL-ICE ice core covering the last millennium from high-elevation Dronning Maud Land (DML) and discuss the implications for interpreting the stable isotopic composition of nitrogen in ice core nitrate (δ15N(NO3-)) as a surface ultra-violet radiation (UV) and total column ozone (TCO) proxy. In the quest to derive TCO using δ15N(NO3-), an understanding of past snow accumulation changes, as well as aerosol source regions and present-day drivers of their variability, is required. We therefore report here the ice core age–depth model, the snow accumulation and ice chemistry records, and correlation analysis of these records with climate variables over the observational era (1979–2016). The ISOL-ICE ice core covers the last 1349 years from 668 to 2017 CE ± 3 years, extending previous ice core records from the region by 2 decades towards the present and shows excellent reproducibility with those records. The extended ISOL-ICE record of last 2 decades showed a continuation of the methane sulfonate (MSA−) increase from ∼ 1800 to present while there were less frequent large deposition events of sea salts relative to the last millennium. While our chemical data do not allow us to distinguish the ultimate (sea ice or the open ocean) source of sea salt aerosols in DML winter aerosol, our correlation analysis clearly suggests that it is mainly the variability in atmospheric transport and not the sea ice extent that explains the interannual variability in sea salt concentrations in DML. Correlation of the snow accumulation record with climate variables over the observational era showed that precipitation at ISOL-ICE is predominately derived from the South Atlantic with onshore winds delivering marine air masses to the site. The snow accumulation rate was stable over the last millennium with no notable trends over the last 2 decades relative to the last millennium. Interannual variability in the accumulation record, ranging between 2 and 20 cm a−1 (w.e.), would influence the ice core δ15N(NO3-) record. The mean snow accumulation rate of 6.5±2.4 cm a−1 (w.e.) falls within the range suitable for reconstructing surface mass balance from ice core δ15N(NO3-), highlighting that the ISOL-ICE ice core δ15N(NO3-) can be used to reconstruct either the surface mass balance or surface UV if the ice core δ15N(NO3-) is corrected for the snow accumulation influence, thereby leaving the UV imprint in the δ15N(NO3-) ice core record to quantify natural ozone variability.

Natural variation in tocopherols, B vitamins, and isoflavones in seeds of 13 Korean conventional soybean varieties

Soybean seeds are excellent sources of tocopherols, B vitamins, and isoflavones, which are well known for their health benefits. This study investigated the influence of environment and genotype on these constituents across 13 Korean soybean varieties cultivated in three locations during the 2017–2019 growing seasons. Statistical analyses, employing both univariate and multivariate methods, revealed significant impacts of genetic and environmental factors on the composition of tocopherols, B vitamins, and isoflavones. Through permutational univariate analysis of variance, the primary contributors to each measured component were identified. Genotype strongly influenced the levels of β- and δ-tocopherols, whereas the interaction between location and year predominantly affected α- and γ-tocopherols. Vitamin B1 content was predominantly determined by genotype, whereas B3 and B6 were influenced by annual variations. Vitamin B2 level was primarily affected by the interplay between environmental and genotypic effects. Genotype had a significant effect on isoflavone components, with the exception of daidzein. Furthermore, early maturing varieties and those with black seed coats exhibited low levels of isoflavone components and total isoflavones, suggesting a relationship between maturity group and seed coat color in isoflavone variation. These findings can be used as reference values for compositional equivalence assessment of genetically modified soybeans.

Evaluation of Genetic Variability for Yield Improvement in Bitter Gourd (Momordica charantia L.) Genotypes

The degree of genetic variability found in any particular germplasm is a major factor in determining the best breeding program or technique to be used. Exploitation of the natural genetic variability present within a crop species can aid in meeting the rising demand through the identification and modification of the adaptive and productive genes present. Breeders thus identify natural genetic variability as the key to crop improvement. The present investigation was undertaken at the Experimental field of Urban Technological Park Habbak, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir during kharif-2022. To investigate several aspects of genetic variability, including mean, range, PV, GV, PCV, GCV, heritability, genetic gain, and genetic advance among the genotypes, the experiment was set up in a Randomized Block Design with three replications and a plant spacing of 2×1 m for thirty genotypes. For every character under study, it was discovered that the estimates of the phenotypic coefficient of variation were marginally greater than the respective genotypic coefficient of variation, indicating a possible involvement of environment in the expression of these traits. Fruit yield hectare-1 (q) exhibited the largest genotypic and phenotypic coefficient of variation (39.788 and 38.970). For yield hectare-1 (q), high heritability and high genetic gain (0.95 and 78.62) were observed. This suggests that additive gene effects are most likely the cause of the heritability and increases the likelihood that this characteristic would be fixed by selection. For every characteristic, the estimates of broad sense heritability were high. All these factors help in selection of better parents for the development of commercial varieties/hybrids. Considering the potential nutritional and economic benefits of bitter gourd (Momordica charantia L.), there is an imperative necessity to isolate such breeding lines having desirable traits, high yield potential along with better quality.

Early aerial expedition photos reveal 85 years of glacier growth and stability in East Antarctica

During the last few decades, several sectors in Antarctica have transitioned from glacial mass balance equilibrium to mass loss. In order to determine if recent trends exceed the scale of natural variability, long-term observations are vital. Here we explore the earliest, large-scale, aerial image archive of Antarctica to provide a unique record of 21 outlet glaciers along the coastline of East Antarctica since the 1930s. In Lützow-Holm Bay, our results reveal constant ice surface elevations since the 1930s, and indications of a weakening of local land-fast sea-ice conditions. Along the coastline of Kemp and Mac Robertson, and Ingrid Christensen Coast, we observe a long-term moderate thickening of the glaciers since 1937 and 1960 with periodic thinning and decadal variability. In all regions, the long-term changes in ice thickness correspond with the trends in snowfall since 1940. Our results demonstrate that the stability and growth in ice elevations observed in terrestrial basins over the past few decades are part of a trend spanning at least a century, and highlight the importance of understanding long-term changes when interpreting current dynamics.

A Multi-Temporal Analysis on the Dynamics of the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover on NO2 and CO Emissions in Argentina for Sustainable Environmental Management

This study presents an analysis of NO2 and CO emissions in Argentina, utilizing remote sensing data. This research aims to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of NO2 and CO emissions from 2019 to 2021. It examines the influence of land use and cover on NO2 and CO emissions using various climatic, anthropic, and natural indicators. The year with the highest CO and NO2 concentration was 2020. NO2 exhibited the highest concentrations in built-up urban areas and croplands, notably impacting the capital city and the northern region of Buenos Aires province. Also, CO concentration was influenced by anthropic variable distances to national route, mining extraction, power plants, airports, and urban index (UI). They were also influenced by climatic and natural variables (Palmer drought index, vapor pressure, maximum environment temperature, wind speed, DEM, humidity, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)) for the different uses and land covers. NO2 concentrations were influenced by anthropic (distance to airports, service stations, open dumpsites, power plants, and factories), climatic, and natural variables (Palmer drought index, vapor pressure, wind speed, and DEM) for the different uses and land cover. This research supports sustainable environmental management by guiding the development of effective emission mitigation strategies for improved community health and well-being.

Effect of nutrient reductions on dissolved oxygen and pH: a case study of Narragansett bay

To assess the consequences of nutrient reduction strategies on water quality under climate change, we investigated the long-term dynamics of dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH in Narragansett Bay (NB), a warming urbanized estuary in Rhode Island, where nitrogen loads have declined due to extensive wastewater treatment plant upgrades. We use 15 years (January 2005-December 2019) of measurements from the Narragansett Bay Fixed Site Monitoring network. Nutrient-enhanced phytoplankton growth can increase DO in the upper water column while subsequent respiration can reduce water column DO and enhance bottom water acidification, and vice-versa. We observed significant decreases in surface DO levels, concurrent with a significant increase in bottom DO, associated with the nitrogen load reduction. Surface DO decline was primarily attributed to reduced intensity of primary productivity, supported by a concurrent decrease in surface chlorophyll concentrations. Meanwhile, the influence of reduced organic matter respiration led to the increase of bottom DO levels by 9 µmol kg-1 (approximately 0.2 mg L-1 for typical summer temperature and salinity) over a 15-year period, which overcame the opposite influence of oxygen reduction from solubility decreases due to warming temperatures. In contrast, long-term changes in surface pH have not exhibited discernible trends beyond natural variability, likely due to the complex and sometimes opposing influences of biological activity and changing river flow conditions. We observed a slight increase in bottom pH, associated with the increase in DO in bottom water. Notably, future variations in freshwater discharge, particularly linked to extreme precipitation events, may further influence water carbonate chemistry and thereby impact pH dynamics. This study highlights the necessity of long-term time series measurements in helping understand the impacts of environmental management practices in improving water quality in coastal regions during a changing climate.

Natural genetic variation underlying the negative effect of elevated CO2 on ionome composition in Arabidopsis thaliana.

The elevation of atmospheric CO2 leads to a decline in plant mineral content, which might pose a significant threat to food security in coming decades. Although few genes have been identified for the negative effect of elevated CO2 on plant mineral composition, several studies suggest the existence of genetic factors. Here, we performed a large-scale study to explore genetic diversity of plant ionome responses to elevated CO2, using six hundred Arabidopsis thaliana accessions, representing geographical distributions ranging from worldwide to regional and local environments. We show that growth under elevated CO2 leads to a global decrease of ionome content, whatever the geographic distribution of the population. We observed a high range of genetic diversity, ranging from the most negative effect to resilience or even to a benefit in response to elevated CO2. Using genome-wide association mapping, we identified a large set of genes associated with this response, and we demonstrated that the function of one of these genes is involved in the negative effect of elevated CO2 on plant mineral composition. This resource will contribute to understand the mechanisms underlying the effect of elevated CO2 on plant mineral nutrition, and could help towards the development of crops adapted to a high-CO2 world.

Natural genetic variation underlying the negative effect of elevated CO2 on ionome composition in Arabidopsis thaliana

The elevation of atmospheric CO2 leads to a decline in plant mineral content, which might pose a significant threat to food security in coming decades. Although few genes have been identified for the negative effect of elevated CO2 on plant mineral composition, several studies suggest the existence of genetic factors. Here, we performed a large-scale study to explore genetic diversity of plant ionome responses to elevated CO2, using six hundred Arabidopsis thaliana accessions, representing geographical distributions ranging from worldwide to regional and local environments. We show that growth under elevated CO2 leads to a global decrease of ionome content, whatever the geographic distribution of the population. We observed a high range of genetic diversity, ranging from the most negative effect to resilience or even to a benefit in response to elevated CO2. Using genome-wide association mapping, we identified a large set of genes associated with this response, and we demonstrated that the function of one of these genes is involved in the negative effect of elevated CO2 on plant mineral composition. This resource will contribute to understand the mechanisms underlying the effect of elevated CO2 on plant mineral nutrition, and could help towards the development of crops adapted to a high-CO2 world.

Genetic mapping reveals a candidate gene CmoFL1 controlling fruit length in pumpkin

Fruit length (FL) is an important economical trait that affects fruit yield and appearance. Pumpkin (Cucurbita moschata Duch) contains a wealth genetic variation in fruit length. However, the natural variation underlying differences in pumpkin fruit length remains unclear. In this study, we constructed a F2 segregate population using KG1 producing long fruit and MBF producing short fruit as parents to identify the candidate gene for fruit length. By bulked segregant analysis (BSA-seq) and Kompetitive Allele-Specific PCR (KASP) approach of fine mapping, we obtained a 50.77 kb candidate region on chromosome 14 associated with the fruit length. Then, based on sequence variation, gene expression and promoter activity analyses, we identified a candidate gene (CmoFL1) encoding E3 ubiquitin ligase in this region may account for the variation of fruit length. One SNP variation in promoter of CmoFL1 changed the GT1CONSENSUS, and DUAL-LUC assay revealed that this variation significantly affected the promoter activity of CmoFL1. RNA-seq analysis indicated that CmoFL1 might associated with the cell division process and negatively regulate fruit length. Collectively, our work identifies an important allelic affecting fruit length, and provides a target gene manipulating fruit length in future pumpkin breeding.

River flow in the near future: a global perspective in the context of a high-emission climate change scenario

Abstract. There is high confidence that global warming intensifies all components of the global water cycle. This work investigates the possible effects of global warming on river flows worldwide in the coming decades. We conducted 18 global hydrological simulations to assess how river flows are projected to change in the near future (2015–2050) compared to the recent past (1950–2014). The simulations are forced by runoff from the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), which assume a high-emission scenario for the projections. The assessment includes estimating the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio and the time of emergence (ToE) of all the rivers in the world. Consistently with the water cycle intensification, the hydrological simulations project a clear positive global river discharge trend from ∼2000 that emerges beyond the levels of natural variability and becomes “unfamiliar” by 2017 and “unusual” by 2033. Simulations agree that the climate change signal is dominated by strong increases in the flows of rivers originating in central Africa and South Asia and those discharging into the Arctic Ocean, partially compensated for by the reduced flow projected for Patagonian rivers. The potential implications of such changes may include more frequent floods in central African and South Asian rivers, driven by the projected magnification of the annual cycles with unprecedented peaks, a freshening of the Arctic Ocean from extra freshwater release, and limited water availability in Patagonia given the projected drier conditions of its rivers. This underscores the critical need for a paradigm shift in prioritizing water-related concerns amidst the challenges of global warming.

New Frontiers in Potato Breeding: Tinkering with Reproductive Genes and Apomixis

Potato is the most important non-cereal crop worldwide, and, yet, genetic gains in potato have been traditionally delayed by the crop’s biology, mostly the genetic heterozygosity of autotetraploid cultivars and the intricacies of the reproductive system. Novel site-directed genetic modification techniques provide opportunities for designing climate-smart cultivars, but they also pose new possibilities (and challenges) for breeding potato. As potato species show a remarkable reproductive diversity, and their ovules have a propensity to develop apomixis-like phenotypes, tinkering with reproductive genes in potato is opening new frontiers in potato breeding. Developing diploid varieties instead of tetraploid ones has been proposed as an alternative way to fill the gap in genetic gain, that is being achieved by using gene-edited self-compatible genotypes and inbred lines to exploit hybrid seed technology. In a similar way, modulating the formation of unreduced gametes and synthesizing apomixis in diploid or tetraploid potatoes may help to reinforce the transition to a diploid hybrid crop or enhance introgression schemes and fix highly heterozygous genotypes in tetraploid varieties. In any case, the induction of apomixis-like phenotypes will shorten the time and costs of developing new varieties by allowing the multi-generational propagation through true seeds. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on potato reproductive phenotypes and underlying genes, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using potato’s natural variability to modulate reproductive steps during seed formation, and consider strategies to synthesize apomixis. However, before we can fully modulate the reproductive phenotypes, we need to understand the genetic basis of such diversity. Finally, we visualize an active, central role for genebanks in this endeavor by phenotyping properly genotyped genebank accessions and new introductions to provide scientists and breeders with reliable data and resources for developing innovations to exploit market opportunities.

Steady threefold Arctic amplification of externally forced warming masked by natural variability

Steady threefold Arctic amplification of externally forced warming masked by natural variability

Assessing the Utility of Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse in the Evaluation of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease with Severe Obesity or Steatosis

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) encompasses a heterogeneous spectrum ranging from simple steatosis to fibrosis and cirrhosis. Fibrosis, associated with long-term overall mortality and liver-related events, requires evaluation. Traditionally, liver biopsy has been the gold standard for diagnosing fibrosis. However, its invasive nature, potential complications, and sampling variability limit widespread use. Consequently, various non-invasive tests have been developed as alternatives for diagnosing fibrosis in NAFLD patients. Aim: This study aimed to compare the accuracy of non-invasive tests (NITs) and evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI), one of the point shear wave techniques, compared to conventional methods, assessing its effective role in diagnosis. Methods: This is a retrospective study; a total of 136 patients diagnosed with fatty liver disease through ultrasonography were enrolled. The anthropometric data of the patients were collected on the day of admission and blood tests, measurements of ARFI, and a point shear test were conducted using abdominal ultrasound; a biopsy was performed the following day. In addition, we calculated the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) index based on four factors (FIB-4) and the NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). Subsequently, we assessed the diagnostic accuracy of NITs within various subgroups based on the extent of obesity, steatosis, or NAFLD activity score. Results: ARFI has been shown to have the highest diagnostic value among various NITs, with AUROC values of 0.832, 0.794, 0.767, and 0.696 for ARFI, APRI, FIB-4, and NFS, respectively. In the morbidly obese subgroup, the AUROC values of ARFI, APRI, FIB-4, and NFS were 0.805, 0.769, 0.736, and 0.674. In the group with severe steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), the AUROC values were 0.679, 0.596, 0.661, and 0.612, respectively, for severe steatosis and 0.789, 0.696, 0.751, and 0.691, respectively, for NASH. Conclusion: In conclusion, ARFI is not affected by various factors and maintains diagnostic accuracy compared to serum NITs. Therefore, we can recommend ARFI as a valuable diagnostic test to screen for advanced fibrosis in patients with NAFLD.

Influence of global teleconnections on long-term variability in flood seasonality across peninsular India

Abstract Climate change and natural climate variability impact not only the frequency and magnitude of floods but also flood seasonality. However, limited to no study has investigated the seasonality in flood occurrence in peninsular Indian rivers. The Central Water Commission opening its long-term records of river stage and discharge gathered from many monitoring stations offers a unique opportunity to analyse flood seasonality. The primary aims of this study are to identify the time of the year when floods are most likely, investigate whether the occurrence of floods has changed over time due to the influence of climate change and natural climate variability, and determine the most significant large-scale and local climate drivers of flood seasonality. Stage and discharge data from 281 gauging stations across ten peninsular river basins are considered to identify the annual maximum gauge level for a gauging point while retaining the corresponding Julian day (also known as the date of occurrence or DO) for further analysis. Several attributes related to circular statistics are calculated from the DO series to find that 68% of the gauging stations experience floods during August, indicating the dominance of the monsoon system on DO. Preliminary analysis confirms that while most stations experience a non-stationarity in the DO series, a few stations exhibit a non-linear trend. Furthermore, this study develops a machine learning model with DO as predictand and 36 local and large-scale predictors to identify the dominant predictors of DO. The predictor importance metric shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explain DO variability better than other drivers. Moreover, since ENSO and PDO are teleconnected with the onset of monsoon and annual maximum rainfall (Pradhan et al., 2017; Choudhury et al., 2021), flood seasonality demonstrates a connection with both PDO and ENSO.

A 300-year tree-ring δ18O-based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano highlights decadal hydroclimate teleconnections

Tropical South American climate is influenced by the South American Summer Monsoon and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. However, assessing natural hydroclimate variability in the region is hindered by the scarcity of long-term instrumental records. Here we present a tree-ring δ18O-based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano for 1700–2013 C.E., derived from Polylepis tarapacana tree rings. This record explains 56% of December–March instrumental precipitation variability in the Altiplano. The tree-ring δ18O chronology shows interannual (2–5 years) and decadal (~11 years) oscillations that are remarkably consistent with periodicities observed in Altiplano precipitation, central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, southern-tropical Andean ice core δ18O and tropical Pacific coral δ18O archives. These results demonstrate the value of annual-resolution tree-ring δ18O records to capture hydroclimate teleconnections and generate robust tropical climate reconstructions. This work contributes to a better understanding of global oxygen-isotope patterns, as well as atmospheric and oceanic processes across the tropics.