Natural Hazards Research Research Articles

Challenges and Strategies for Knowledge Co-Production in Ecosystem and Natural Hazards Research

The grand environmental challenges society faces cannot be solved without knowledge contributions from communities that are touched by the outcomes and impacts of research. Recognizing and valuing these sources, a research method known as co-production of knowledge involves collaboration of interested parties and knowledge owners in activities ranging from identifying research needs to study design, data collection, interpretation, and evaluation. We present a novel approach to the administrative and financial support for knowledge co-production developed by Oregon Sea Grant and provide examples from two funded project teams. We summarize barriers to these approaches, discuss points of symmetry, and propose good practices. One project emphasized equitable alternative strategies for chronic and acute coastal hazard adaptation and mitigation. The other project looked beyond dam removal in the Klamath River Basin to generate place-based and generalizable understanding of, and equitable decisions around, water quality and socio-ecological systems undergoing change. Both projects provide high-level lessons regarding opportunities and challenges encountered in the engaged research process, highlighting flexibility and adaptability as two important considerations.

The value of qualitative longitudinal research for researchers and policy‐makers: Lessons learnt from exploring long‐term impacts of flooding

AbstractThis paper offers reflections about the use of a longitudinal qualitative research design in a project which explored the long term impacts of flooding in two communities in North‐East Scotland. A temporal turn in the social sciences has raised the profile of longitudinal qualitative approaches, research whose diachronic framing allows trajectories and nuanced understandings of change to emerge. With reference to research which utilised a planned prospective longitudinal design, we offer reflections on methodological and project management ‘lessons learnt’ from undertaking a longitudinal qualitative study. Our experiences highlighted the importance of: (i) participant recruitment processes, including a need to ‘oversample’ to accommodate anticipated attrition rates; (ii) developing and sustaining a relationship between participants and researchers; (iii) reporting interim findings to participants, the funder and flood risk management stakeholders via a project Steering Group in particular; and (iv) agreeing a regular reporting schedule which allowed the funder and stakeholders access to findings during the lifetime of the project which, in turn, allowed impact to be generated before the final report was presented. In sharing our experiences our intention is twofold: to open a debate in human geography about how longitudinal qualitative research could be used more widely, in natural hazards research, rural community change and other research areas; and to illustrate that longitudinal qualitative research generates insights that can contribute to evidence‐based policy development, implementation and evaluation.

Dear NSF: Scientific Ocean Drilling Is Necessary for Climate Studies, Natural Hazards Research, and Inspiring Future Scientists

AbstractThis letter, written by two early career researchers, highlights their urgent concerns regarding the future of scientific ocean drilling (SciOD) research following the retirement of the JOIDES Resolution (JR) at the end of the 2024 fiscal year. In the letter, addressed to the director of NSF‐OCE and to key leaders in determining U.S. scientific priorities, we outline the importance of scientific ocean drilling, both historically and for future scientific advances. We urge the NSF to make immediate, concrete commitments to fund, develop, and construct a new riserless drilling vessel dedicated to SciOD. We also highlight the importance of supporting existing and future SciOD researchers and infrastructure, including the urgent need to create programs designed to support early career researchers in our field. The letter has been signed by nearly three hundred scientists, more than two hundred of which are U.S.‐based researchers and more than half of which are early career researchers.

Seafloor depth mapping of central Vietnam’s sea area and its surrounding using gravity anomaly data and gravity geological method

Seafloor topography mapping has a vital role in territorial management, geological investigation, natural hazard research, and marine construction; therefore, improving the accuracy of seafloor topography mapping is essential. The main objective of this research is to assess the possibility of improving the accuracy of seafloor topographic mapping for the central sea area of Vietnam and its surroundings based on the combination of satellite-derived gravity anomaly data and shipborne data. Firstly, the best satellite-derived gravity anomaly model for the study area is determined by comparing its gravity with the shipborne gravity anomaly. Then, the systematic deviation in the satellite-derived gravity anomaly is eliminated and fitted. Then, the substance density contrast (SDC) between the seabed and the seawater is derived. Subsequently, the seafloor depth was computed using the Gravity Geological method. In the next step, the computed depth is fitted with the shipborne depth to improve the accuracy and reduce the systematic deviation. The result shows that the best satellite-derived gravity anomaly model for the study area is the DTU17GRAV, with an accuracy of ± 5.06 mGal. The most suitable SDC in the study area is 1.40 g/cm3. The final seafloor topographic map with 1′×1′ grid is obtained with the root mean square deviation (RMSD) of ± 83.96 m, which is lower than that of the global terrain model of GEBCO 2022 (RMSD = ±152.88 m). Therefore, it is concluded that the combination of satellite-derived gravity anomaly and shipborne data can significantly improve the accuracy of seafloor mapping for complex topographic areas. The results of this research are helpful for seabed applications and territorial management in the region.

Invited perspectives: Views of 350 natural hazard community members on key challenges in natural hazards research and the Sustainable Development Goals

Abstract. In this paper, we present the results of an NHESS (Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences) 20th anniversary survey, in which 350 natural hazard community members responded to two questions: (Q1) “what are the top three scientific challenges you believe are currently facing our understanding of natural hazards” and (Q2) “what three broad step changes should or could be done by the natural hazard community to address natural hazards in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals”? We have analysed the data quantitatively and qualitatively. According to the 350 respondents, the most significant challenges (Q1) are the following (within brackets % of 350 respondents who identified a given theme): (i) shortcomings in the knowledge of risk and risk components (64 %), (ii) deficiencies of hazard and risk reduction approaches (37 %), (iii) influence of global change, especially climate change (35 %), (iv) integration of social factors (18%), (v) inadequate translation of science to policy and practice (17 %), and (vi) lack of interdisciplinary approaches (6 %). In order for the natural hazard community to support the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (Q2), respondents called for (i) enhanced stakeholder engagement, communication and knowledge transfer (39 %), (ii) increased management and reduction of disaster risks (34 %), (iii) enhanced interdisciplinary research and its translation to policy and practice (29 %), (iv) a better understanding of natural hazards (23 %), (v) better data, enhanced access to data and data sharing (9 %), and (vi) increased attention to developing countries (6 %). We note that while the most common knowledge gaps are felt to be around components of knowledge about risk drivers, the step changes that the community felt were necessary related more to issues of wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary working.

ICON Principles Underused as a Natural Hazards Research Tool

Scientists identify barriers to and opportunities for applying integrated, connected, open, and networked research strategies to natural hazards studies.

Analyzing Bulk Flow Characteristics of Debris Flows Using Their High Frequency Seismic Signature

AbstractQuantifying debris‐flow characteristics remains a key challenge in natural hazard research. Recent studies suggest that seismic signals can reveal debris‐flow properties. However, the accuracy and applicability of theoretical models linking bulk flow properties to the seismic signature of a debris flow remain elusive. By extending a previously proposed model of random single‐particle impact forces to multi‐particle force chains acting on the channel bed, we describe the generation of high frequency seismic signals, and thereby estimate the bulk flow dynamics of six debris‐flow events at Illgraben, Switzerland. The theoretically predicted basal force fluctuations agree with in‐situ measurements at a basal force plate and seismic signals recorded adjacent to the channel. According to our model, both random single‐particle impacts and random impacts caused by multi‐particle force chains control basal force fluctuations. The relative contributions of single particles and of multi‐particle force chains may vary significantly for different events and different positions within events. The relative contribution of multi‐particle force chains is expected to be larger in the flow front, where particle concentrations are higher. The ratio between single‐particle and multi‐particle contributions appears to control the non‐linear relation between flow depth and the magnitude of the high frequency seismic signals. Our results suggest that fluctuating basal forces are strongly controlled by particle size and flow depth, and open new perspectives for the understanding of bulk flow characteristics, such as flow depth and weight, and of the high frequency seismic signals generated by debris flows.

Analysis of Natural Hazards Research from 2011-2020: A Scientometric Perspective

Analysis of Natural Hazards Research from 2011-2020: A Scientometric Perspective

The Impact of Natural Hazards on Older Adult Health: Lessons Learned From Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico.

With natural hazards increasing in frequency and severity and global population aging, preparedness efforts must evolve to address older adults' risks in disasters. This study elucidates potential contributors to the elevated older adult mortality risk following Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico through an examination of community stakeholder preparedness, response, and recovery experiences. In April 2018, qualitative interviews (n = 22) were conducted with stakeholders in 7 Puerto Rican municipalities. Interview transcripts were deductively and inductively coded and analyzed to identify salient topics and themes representing participant response patterns. The hurricane's detrimental impact on older adult health emerged as a prominent finding. Through 6 months post-hurricane, many older adults experienced unmet needs that contributed to declining physical and emotional health, inadequate non-communicable disease management, social isolation, financial strain, and excess morbidity and mortality. These needs were predominantly consequences of lengthy public service gaps, unsafe living conditions, interrupted health care, and the incongruence between preparedness and event severity. In a landscape of increasing natural hazard frequency and magnitude, a pattern of older adult risk has become increasingly clear. Study findings compel practitioners to engage in natural hazard preparedness planning, research, and policy-making that considers the multiple facets of older adult well-being.

Indigenous peoples and natural hazard research, policy and practice in southern temperate Australia: an agenda for change

Engaging with Indigenous peoples is clearly on the agenda of natural hazard leaders in southern Australia, but there is very little research, policy or practical experience to support this work. Indeed, with a few important exceptions, natural hazard organisations and research institutions have had little engagement with Indigenous peoples, their organisations or research priorities or protocols. While there are substantial gaps in the research evidence, it is important to start identifying the issues at hand and consider what might be done in response. This paper provides a brief overview of the fraught relations between Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in Australia and some common misunderstandings. The paper includes specific suggestions for current research, policy and practice, noting that natural hazard agencies and research institutions are influential and closely related. It is clear there are challenges. However, changing practice is essential to foster more respectful terms between Indigenous peoples and Australia’s natural hazard and emergency management sector.

Simple Run-Time Infrastructure (SRTI): An accessible distributed computing platform for interdisciplinary simulation

Distributed computing is a necessity for conducting cross-disciplinary research where field-specific computational models (simulators) are available, but have not been designed to work together. An example of this is natural hazards research. Simulators abound in the disparate fields that fall under this area, e.g. social science, engineering, economics, and health, but little progress has been made to integrate the simulators to study overarching and cross-disciplinary disaster scenarios. The reason for slow penetration of this technology is the high barrier to entry, which requires extensive knowledge of computer science and programming. Building upon an existing platform named Simple Run Time Infrastructure (SRTI v1), a new, fundamentally different version (SRTI v2) is developed to address the issues mentioned above. Designed to provide a low barrier to use, SRTI v2 is developed for users with limited programming experience and designed to simplify and streamline a user’s effort to compose a distributed simulation and handle time management. To achieve this primary objective, pre-compiled components are provided including the RTI Management Server, RTI Wrapper, and a GUI. By exploiting these pre-compiled components, users can compose a scalable distributed simulation with heterogeneous computational models. To demonstrate the concepts behind SRTI, a cross-language simulation, modified and extended from a time-dependent resilience analysis of an electric power system in the literature, is presented to show the scalability and usability of SRTI. Features of the different versions of SRTI are discussed and useful features to develop in the future are outlined.

The WGLC global gridded lightning climatology and time series

Abstract. Lightning is an important atmospheric phenomenon and has wide-ranging influence on the Earth system, but few long-term observational datasets of lightning occurrence and distribution are currently freely available. Here, we analyze global lightning activity over the second decade of the 21st century using a new global, high-resolution gridded time series and climatology of lightning stroke density based on raw data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN). While the total number of strokes detected increases from 2010–2014, an adjustment for detection efficiency reduces this artificial trend. The global distribution of lightning shows the well-known pattern of greatest density over the three tropical terrestrial regions of the Americas, Africa, and the Maritime Continent, but we also noticed substantial temporal variability over the 11 years of record, with more lightning in the tropics from 2012–2015 and increasing lightning in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere from 2016–2020. Although the total number of strokes detected globally was constant, mean stroke power decreases significantly from a peak in 2013 to the lowest levels on record in 2020. Evaluation with independent observational networks shows that while the WWLLN does not capture peak seasonal lightning densities, it does represent the majority of powerful lightning strokes. The resulting gridded lightning dataset (Kaplan and Lau, 2021a, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4774528) is freely available and will be useful for a range of studies in climate, Earth system, and natural hazards research, including direct use as input data to models and as evaluation data for independent simulations of lightning occurrence.

Invited perspectives: Building sustainable and resilient communities – recommended actions for natural hazard scientists

Abstract. Reducing disaster risk is critical to securing the ambitions of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and natural hazard scientists make a key contribution to achieving this aim. Understanding Earth processes and dynamics underpins hazard analysis, which (alongside analysis of other disaster risk drivers) informs the actions required to manage and reduce disaster risk. Here we suggest how natural hazard research scientists can better contribute to the planning and development of sustainable and resilient communities through improved engagement in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Building on existing good practice, this perspective piece aims to provoke discussion in the natural hazard science community about how we can strengthen our engagement in DRR. We set out seven recommendations for enhancing the integration of natural hazard science into DRR: (i) characterise multi-hazard environments; (ii) prioritise effective, positive, long-term partnerships; (iii) understand and listen to your stakeholders; (iv) embed cultural understanding into natural hazard research; (v) ensure improved and equitable access to hazard information; (vi) champion people-centred DRR (leaving no one behind); and (vii) improve links between DRR and sustainable development. We then proceed to synthesise key actions that natural hazard scientists and research funders should consider taking to improve education, training, and research design and to strengthen institutional, financial, and policy actions. We suggest that these actions should help to strengthen the effective application of natural hazard science to reduce disaster risk. By recognising and taking steps to address the issues raised in these recommendations, we propose that the natural hazard science community can more effectively contribute to the inter-/transdisciplinary, integrated work required to improve DRR.

Muis Receives 2019 Natural Hazards Section Award for Graduate Research

Sanne Muis received the 2019 Natural Hazards Section Award for Graduate Research at AGU’s Fall Meeting 2019, held 9–13 December in San Francisco, Calif. The award recognizes “outstanding contributions to natural hazards research and is judged based on impact or potential impact to the field.”

The Network Coordination Office of NHERI (Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure)

NHERI, or the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure, is supported by the United States National Science Foundation (NSF) as a distributed, multi-user national facility that provides the natural hazards research community with access to a powerful research infrastructure. NHERI is comprised of separate research infrastructure awards for a Network Coordination Office (NCO), Cyberinfrastructure, a Computational Modeling and Simulation Center, eight Experimental Facilities, and CONVERGE (an initiative to advance social sciences and interdisciplinary research). Awards made for NHERI contribute to NSF's role in the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program and the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program of the United States. The mission of NHERI is to provide the earthquake, wind, coastal engineering, and social sciences communities with access to research infrastructure, education, and community outreach activities focused on improving the resilience and sustainability of the civil infrastructure against earthquakes, windstorms, and associated natural events such as tsunami and coastal storm surge. In this paper, the role and key NHERI activities are described for the NCO, which is led by Purdue University, along with partner institutions—the University of Texas at San Antonio, North Carolina State University, Texas Tech University, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, and the University of Hawaii at Manoa. The NHERI NCO serves as a focal point and leader of a multi-hazards research community, and maintains a community-based NHERI science plan. It manages scheduling of our partner NHERI Experimental Facilities and coordinates all components to ensure effective and fair governance, efficient testing and user support within a safe environment. Another important role of the NCO is to lead NHERI-wide educational and outreach activities. The NCO works to develop strategic national and international partnerships and to coordinate NHERI activities with other awardee components to form a cohesive and fully-integrated global natural hazards engineering research infrastructure that fosters collaboration in new ways.

Scientific and technological power and international cooperation in the field of natural hazards: a bibliometric analysis

Research on natural hazards has become a focus due to the serious threat to human life and property. Based on the Science Citation Index Expanded and the Social Sciences Citation Index in the Web of Science spanning 2000–2017, we analyze the characteristics, cooperating countries and research trends of existing articles in the field of natural hazards using a bibliometric method. And the findings provide meaningful data and references for the allocation of science and technology inputs in the fields of natural hazards research. The results show the following: The USA has made the largest contribution to the natural hazards literature and has been in the leading position during the period of research; three of the ten most influential institutions are American institutions, and six out of ten of the most-cited articles are American articles; furthermore, the USA is the country that has the highest degree of cooperation with other countries; Chinese publications rank in second place, and China is the country with the highest average annual growth rate (22.63%), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences is one of the most productive research institutions (2098) but with a low international influence. We also analyze the changes in the research on natural hazards in two time periods as well as the similarities and differences between disaster occurrences and research hotspots. We found that “earthquakes,” “landslides,” and “climate change” are frequently used keywords in natural disaster science. The frequency of the keywords “climate change,” “vulnerability,” and “adaptability” has significantly increased. In addition, the frequency of the keywords used in various countries is significantly affected by the geographical location and there is a discrepancy between the research hotspots and the actual disaster occurrences. It is recommended that countries need to adjust their research directions in natural hazards research, strengthen international cooperation and exchange, and promote the establishment and improvement of a global disaster prevention and reduction system.

A CitSci Approach for Rapid Earthquake Intensity Mapping: A Case Study from Istanbul (Turkey)

Nowadays several scientific disciplines utilize Citizen Science (CitSci) as a research approach. Natural hazard research and disaster management also benefit from CitSci since people can provide geodata and the relevant attributes using their mobile devices easily and rapidly during or after an event. An earthquake, depending on its intensity, is among the highly destructive natural hazards. Coordination efforts after a severe earthquake event are vital to minimize its harmful effects and timely in-situ data are crucial for this purpose. The aim of this study is to perform a CitSci pilot study to demonstrate the usability of data obtained by volunteers (citizens) for creating earthquake iso-intensity maps in a short time. The data were collected after a 5.8 Mw Istanbul earthquake which occurred on 26 September 2019. Through the mobile app “I felt the quake”, citizen observations regarding the earthquake intensity were collected from various locations. The intensity values in the app represent a revised form of the Mercalli intensity scale. The iso-intensity map was generated using a spatial kriging algorithm and compared with the one produced by The Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD), Turkey, empirically. The results show that collecting the intensity information via trained users is a plausible method for producing such maps.

Key Topics and Future Perspectives in Natural Hazards Research

Since early 2018 the “Natural Hazards” Section of Geosciences journal has aimed to publish pure, experimental, or applied research that is focused on advancing methodologies, technologies, expertise, and capabilities to detect, characterize, monitor, and model natural hazards and assess their associated risks. This stream of geoscientific research has reached a high degree of specialization and represents a multi-disciplinary research realm. To inaugurate this section, the Special Issue “Key Topics and Future Perspectives in Natural Hazards Research” was launched. After a year and half since the call for papers was initially opened, the special issue is now completed with the editorial introducing the collection of 10 selected papers covering the following hot topics of natural hazards research: (i) trends in publications and research directions at international level; (ii) the role of Big Data in natural disaster management; (iii) assessment of seismic risk through the understanding and quantification of its three components (i.e., hazard, vulnerability and exposure/impact); (iv) climatic/hydro-meteorological hazards (i.e., drought, hurricanes); and (v) scientific analysis of past incidents and disaster forensics (i.e., the Oroville Dam 2017 spillway incident). The present editorial provides a summary of each paper of the collection within the current context of scientific research on natural hazards, pointing out the salient results and key messages.

Working outside ‘the rules’: Opportunities and challenges of community participation in risk reduction

Research has shown that greater community action is needed for effective risk reduction. Community participation in risk reduction ranges from action that is initiated and led by members of the public, independently of government assistance, to those that are initiated and facilitated by government and non-government organisations. Natural hazards research has demonstrated that despite awareness of and a desire to reduce risk, many community members lack the physical, psychological or financial capacity to take action. This is particularly the case for bushfires, where preparations can be costly and physically demanding. In response to this, Fire and Rescue New South Wales (FRNSW) established the Community Fire Unit (CFU) program. CFUs are groups of residents who are provided with education, training and equipment to enable them to reduce risks around their homes through enhanced preparation and some bushfire defence. This paper examines the experiences and views of CFU members after bushfires in the Blue Mountains, NSW in October 2013. The majority of respondents believed that their participation in the CFU program reduced bushfire risk and led to a greater sense of community and social capital in their local area. However, the research revealed challenges associated with participating within the formal, top-down structures of a professional fire brigade. Respondents therefore considered that greater flexibility was needed with simultaneously greater support and autonomy from FRNSW. The paper explores the experiences, challenges and opportunities presented by a top-down community based risk reduction program and considers the implications for community participation in risk reduction more generally.

Natural hazard threats to pollinators and pollination.

Natural hazards are naturally occurring physical events that can impact human welfare both directly and indirectly, via shocks to ecosystems and the services they provide. Animal-mediated pollination is critical for sustaining agricultural economies and biodiversity, yet stands to lose both from present exposure to natural hazards, and future climate-driven shifts in their distribution, frequency, and intensity. In contrast to the depth of knowledge available for anthropogenic-related threats, our understanding of how naturally occurring extreme events impact pollinators and pollination has not yet been synthesized. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the potential impacts of natural hazards on pollinators and pollination in natural and cultivated systems. From a total of 117 studies (74% of which were observational), we found evidence of community and population-level impacts to plants and pollinators from seven hazard types, including climatological (extreme heat, fire, drought), hydrological (flooding), meteorological (hurricanes), and geophysical (volcanic activity, tsunamis). Plant and pollinator response depended on the type of natural hazard and level of biological organization observed; 19% of cases reported no significant impact, whereas the majority of hazards held consistent negative impacts. However, the effects of fire were mixed, but taxa specific; meta-analysis revealed that bee abundance and species richness tended to increase in response to fire, differing significantly from the mainly negative response of Lepidoptera. Building from this synthesis, we highlight important future directions for pollination-focused natural hazard research, including the need to: (a) advance climate change research beyond static "mean-level" changes by better incorporating "shock" events; (b) identify impacts at higher levels of organization, including ecological networks and co-evolutionary history; and (c) address the notable gap in crop pollination services research-particularly in developing regions of the world. We conclude by discussing implications for safeguarding pollination services in the face of global climate change.