Natural Hazard-induced Disasters Research Articles

Investigation of landslide hazard areas in the municipality of Cunha (Brazil) and climate projections from 2024 to 2040

Climate change can modify the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall across the globe, leading to changes in hazards posed by rainfall-induced landslides. In Brazil, an example of a location with a high occurrence of landslides and with few studies on the subject is the municipality of Cunha, located in the State of São Paulo. In this way, the main aims of this study are twofold: 1) to identify and analyze areas susceptible to landslides and rainfall-induced landslide hazard in the municipality of Cunha; and 2) by using climate projections from the regional model Eta-HadGEM2-ES under RCP 4.5, to predict new extreme events and possible new landslides in this municipality, from 2024 to 2040. The susceptibility map has been prepared using selected physical-biotic environment elements whereas the hazard map has been produced using precipitation data. Using Eta-HadGEM2-ES climate projections under RCP 4.5, for precipitation events, results project the occurrence of 49 days with landslides for the period between 2024 and 2040. The outcomes of this study are considered of extreme relevance for the local community, public authorities, and decision-makers, to raise awareness regarding future urban planning strategies to prevent and mitigate the effects of catastrophes arising from natural hazard-induced disasters.

Digital Twin Smart Cities for Disaster Risk Management: A Review of Evolving Concepts

Natural hazard-induced disasters have caused catastrophic damage and loss to buildings, infrastructure, and the affected communities as a whole during the recent decades and their impact is expected to further escalate in the future. Thus, there is a huge demand for disaster risk management using digitalisation as a key enabler for effective and efficient disaster risk management systems. It is widely accepted that digital and intelligence technologies can help solve key aspects of disaster risk management such as disaster prevention and mitigation, and rescue and recovery. Digital Twin (DT) is one of the most promising technologies for multi-stage management which offers significant potential to advance disaster resilience. Smart Cities (SCs) use pervasive information and communications technology to monitor activities in the city. With increasingly large applications of DTs combined with big data generated from sensors in a SC, it is now possible to create Digital Twin Smart Cities (DTSCs). Despite the increasing prevalence of DTSC technologies and their profound impact on disaster risk management, a systematic and longitudinal view of the evolution to the current status of DTSC for disaster risk management does not exist. This review analyses 312 titles and abstracts and 72 full papers. To begin with, a scientific review of DT and SC is undertaken, where the evolution of DTSCs is reviewed. In addition, the intelligence technologies used in DTSCs for disaster risk management are assessed and their benefits are evaluated. Furthermore, the evolution and technical feasibility of DTSC-driven disaster risk management is evaluated by assessing current applications of DTSCs in disaster risk management. It was found that despite the significant potential benefits offered by DTSCs, they also add a new layer of complexities and challenges inherent to these technologies to the already complex web of complexities involved in disaster risk management. These challenges can be addressed by understanding how the process of utilising DTSCs in disaster risk reduction and sustainability is designed, which is essential for comprehending what DTSCs may offer, how it is implemented, and what it means to all involved stakeholders. This paper contributes to the knowledge by improving the understanding of the current status of DTSC technologies and their impact on disaster risk management, and articulating the challenges in implementing DTSC, which inspires the professional community to advance these technologies to address them in future research.

Assessing the real costs of natural hazard-induced disasters: A case study from Australia’s Northern Territory

Natural Hazard-induced Disasters (NHD) cause a wide range of losses to built and natural environments, the latter often beyond standard measures. Precise accounting and characterisation of the losses can assist in developing effective management policies that help to build resilient communities. This study applies trans-disciplinary approaches to assess total, monetary and non-monetary, NHD-related losses, estimated at AUD 156 million per year (2010–2019 average), for Australia’s Northern Territory where bushfires, cyclones, storms and floods are destructive and frequent events. Non-monetary losses, often overlooked or omitted, were estimated at AUD103 million per year, accounting for two-thirds of total disaster-related losses. Marketable losses, estimated at AUD 53 million per year, were inferred, using standard and non-standard datasets, from the Australian Government’s Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements, insurance costs (Insurance Council of Australia database), and other relevant sources. Non-monetary losses were accounted for by the loss of ecosystem services from natural systems caused by cyclones and bushfires only, applying ecological economics approaches, but without considering long-term losses over the duration of recovery. This study informs disaster management policies to invest in collective emergency and environmental management planning for reducing NHD risk and building resilience of local communities to manage and prepare for rapidly changing climates. Such an accounting approach is essential in contexts where NHDs disproportionately affect the lives and well-being of disadvantaged remote communities.

The association between educational attainment and resilience to natural hazard-induced disasters in the West Indies: St. Kitts & Nevis

The link between education and effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a familiar concept. It is important to further investigate this potential association due to the increased frequency of natural hazard-induced disasters secondary to climate change. The purpose of this study was to analyze the association between educational attainment and resilience to natural hazard-induced disasters in St. Kitts and Nevis. We hypothesize that educational attainment is positively associated with resilience. Participants were selected via convenience sampling. Educational attainment and resilience were ascertained in 343 adult (age ≥ 18 y) residents of St. Kitts & Nevis using a structured and self-administered questionnaire. Data such as demographics, education, and information related to natural hazard-induced disasters was gathered. Logistic regression models analyzed the association between educational attainment and resilience after adjusting for age, sex, race, average monthly income, and island of residence. Compared to those with no more than primary school education, adults with a professional education were significantly more likely to be resilient (POR 2.39 CI [1.08, 5.28]). In contrast, the odds of resilience among adults with no more than secondary school education compared to the referent group was not significant (POR 0.99 CI [0.52, 1.89]). Professional school education positively associates with resilience to natural hazard-induced disasters. However, since this represents a minority of the population, there should be greater efforts to increase disaster preparedness education in primary school, secondary school, and within the community to further build resilience to natural hazard-induced disasters.

Small and Medium Enterprises and Global Risks: Evidence from Manufacturing SMEs in Turkey

This study investigated how small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in a country perceive major global risks. The aim was to explore how country attributes and circumstances affect SME assessments of the likelihood, impacts, and rankings of global risks, and to find out if SME risk assessment and rankings differ from the global rankings. Data were gathered using an online survey of manufacturing SMEs in Turkey. The results show that global economic risks and geopolitical risks are of major concern for SMEs, and environmental risks are at the bottom of their ranking. Among the economic risks, fiscal crises in key economies and high structural unemployment or underemployment were found to be the highest risks for the SMEs. Failure of regional or global governance, failure of national governance, and interstate conflict with regional consequences were found to be among the top geopolitical risks for the SMEs. The SMEs considered the risk of large-scale cyber-attacks and massive incident of data fraud/theft to be relatively higher than other global technological risks. Profound social instability and failure of urban planning were among the top societal risks for the SMEs. Although the global environmental and disaster risks were ranked lowest on the list, man-made environmental damage and disasters and major natural hazard-induced disasters were ranked the highest among this group of risks. Overall, the results show that SMEs at a country level, for example Turkey, perceive global risks differently than the major global players.

Vulnerability Factors of Afghan Rural Women to Disasters

Disaster management is a global challenge, but disasters do not affect men and women equally. In most of the world’s disasters, more females are impacted than males, and in Afghanistan the disparity between female and male victims is even greater. This study identifies and maps the relationships between the factors that make Afghan rural women more vulnerable to natural hazard-induced disasters. Data for this study were obtained through focus group discussions with rural women and men, as well as person-to-person interviews with employees of government and nongovernmental organizations at the national and local levels in Afghanistan. The study uses Grounded Theory and Interpretive Structural Modeling, not widely used before for this type of study, to analyze the data collected and to map the factors of vulnerability identified and their relationships. In agreement with previous studies, our findings show that insufficient disaster education, inadequate protection measures, and powerful cultural issues, both pre- and post-disaster, increase women’s vulnerability during and after disasters. In particular, cultural issues play a role after disasters by affecting women’s security, access to disaster aid, and health care. The study also found that perception regarding these cultural issues and how they affect women during disasters differs among men and women. Finally, by using Interpretive Structural Modeling, we show how the importance of the factors and their interrelationships change in pre-disaster and post-disaster situations. We conclude the article with some policy recommendations such as finding ways to allow women to participate in disaster planning activities and decision-making processes related to disaster risk reduction, as well as securing dedicated funds for the mainstreaming of gender in disaster risk reduction policies in Afghanistan.

Impact of Economic Development Levels and Disaster Types on the Short-Term Macroeconomic Consequences of Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters in China

The relationship between natural hazard-induced disasters and macroeconomic growth has been examined widely on global and national scales, but little research has been focused on the subnational level, especially in China. We examined the impacts of natural hazard-induced disasters on the regional growth in China based on subnational panel data for the period from 1990 to 2016. First, we used the number of people affected and the direct economic losses as the measures of the scale of disasters. Then, we used the direct damages of meteorological disasters and earthquakes as disaster measures separately to examine the impacts of different disaster types. Finally, we performed intraregional effects regressions to observe the spatial heterogeneity within the regions. The results show that the adverse short-term effects of disasters is most pronounced in the central region, while the direct damage of disasters is a positive stimulus of growth in the whole of China. However, this stimulus is observed in a lagged way and is reflected differently—meteorological disasters in central and eastern China and earthquakes in western China are related to regional growth. The results demonstrate that the short-term macroeconomic impacts of these disasters in the three geographical regions of China largely depend on regional economic development levels and the disaster types.

Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters and Production Efficiency: Moving Closer to or Further from the Frontier?

Production efficiency is a key determinant of economic growth and demonstrates how a country uses its resources by relating the quantity of its inputs to its outputs. When a natural hazard-induced disaster strikes, it has a devastating impact on capital and labor, but at the same time provides an opportunity to upgrade capital and increase labor demand and training opportunities, thereby potentially boosting production efficiency. We studied the impact of natural hazard-induced disasters on countries’ production efficiency, using the case study of hurricanes in the Caribbean. To this end we built a country-specific, time-varying data set of hurricane damage and national output and input indicators for 17 Caribbean countries for the period 1940–2014. Our results, using a stochastic frontier approach, show that there is a short-lived production efficiency boost, and that this can be large for very damaging storms.

Risk Governance: Application to Urban Challenges

Urban areas face multiple risks: they range from natural hazard-induced disasters, fires, and building code violations to social risks such as vandalism, crime, and social disorientation, among others. These risks often interact with each other and cannot be dealt with in isolation. As a means to identify, assess, and manage multiple risks, the concept of “risk governance” has been developed, which promises to provide integrative and comprehensive tools to deal with the many manifestations of risks. In this article, risk governance concept has been specifically applied to complex risk situations in urban areas. The concept of risk governance pertains to the many ways in which multiple actors, individuals and institutions, public and private, deal with risks. It includes formal institutions and regimes and informal arrangements. The article first develops an adaptive and integrative model of risk governance and applies this model to the urban environments. After a short summary of the roots of risk governance, key concepts, such as simple, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous risks, are discussed. The main emphasis is on each of the five phases of risk governance: pre-estimation, interdisciplinary assessment, risk evaluation, risk management, and risk communication.

Divided disasters: examining the impacts of the conflict-disaster nexus for distanced crises in the Philippines.

'Divided disasters' are conflicts and natural hazard-induced disasters that occur simultaneously, but in different locations within the same national boundaries. They will place pressure on the same national governance structures, will draw on the same international and national humanitarian resources, and therefore can mutually reinforce the challenges and risks faced by affected populations. Yet, as this paper argues, the impacts do not originate in the direct interaction of these two variables. Rather, they derive, in part, from the management of humanitarian responses to them-namely, through the reprioritisation of attention and the redeployment of resources as driven by the imperatives of 'the good project'. Using a case study of the Philippines, and the parallel emergencies of Typhoon Haiyan (one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record) and the spike in violence in Mindanao in 2013, this paper explores the organisational motivators of humanitarian responses to divided disasters, and assesses their implications for affected populations.

The Pattern of Policy Change on Disaster Management in China: A Bibliometric Analysis of Policy Documents, 1949\u20132016

This article presents a comprehensive review of China’s policy system for the management of natural hazard-induced disasters from 1949 to 2016 through a quantitative bibliometric analysis of 5472 policy documents on such disasters. It identifies four phases of China’s evolving disaster management system, which focused on agriculture, economic development, government and professional capacity building, and disaster governance, respectively. Characteristics of policies and contributing factors of policy change in each of the four phases are discussed in depth. This article provides a quantitative foundation for understanding the dynamic policy change of the disaster management system in China with a particular emphasis on the governance capacity and may serve as a basis for exploring the potential pathways of transformation according to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 and the Sustainable Development Goals.

SIRENE: A Spatial Data Infrastructure to Enhance Communities\u2019 Resilience to Disaster-Related Emergency

Planning in advance to prepare for and respond to a natural hazard-induced disaster-related emergency is a key action that allows decision makers to mitigate unexpected impacts and potential damage. To further this aim, a collaborative, modular, and information and communications technology-based Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) called SIRENE—Sistema Informativo per la Preparazione e la Risposta alle Emergenze (Information System for Emergency Preparedness and Response) is designed and implemented to access and share, over the Internet, relevant multisource and distributed geospatial data to support decision makers in reducing disaster risks. SIRENE flexibly searches and retrieves strategic information from local and/or remote repositories to cope with different emergency phases. The system collects, queries, and analyzes geographic information provided voluntarily by observers directly in the field (volunteered geographic information (VGI) reports) to identify potentially critical environmental conditions. SIRENE can visualize and cross-validate institutional and research-based data against VGI reports, as well as provide disaster managers with a decision support system able to suggest the mode and timing of intervention, before and in the aftermath of different types of emergencies, on the basis of the available information and in agreement with the laws in force at the national and regional levels. Testing installations of SIRENE have been deployed in 18 hilly or mountain municipalities (12 located in the Italian Central Alps of northern Italy, and six in the Umbria region of central Italy), which have been affected by natural hazard-induced disasters over the past years (landslides, debris flows, floods, and wildfire) and experienced significant social and economic losses.

A Novel Methodological Approach to Estimate the Impact of Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters on Country/Region-Level Economic Growth

With the increased frequency of extreme weather events and large-scale disasters, extensive societal and economic losses incur every year due to damage of infrastructure and private properties, business disruptions, fatalities, homelessness, and severe health-related issues. In this article, we analyze the economic and disaster data from 1970 through 2010 to investigate the impact of disasters on country/region-level economic growth. We leveraged a random parameter modeling approach to develop the growth-econometrics model that identifies risk factors significantly influencing the country/region-level economic growth in the face of natural hazard-induced disasters, while controlling for country/region- and time-specific unobserved heterogeneities. We found that disaster intensity in terms of fatalities and homelessness, and economic characteristics such as openness to trade and a government’s consumption share of purchasing power parity (PPP), are the significant risk factors that randomly vary for different countries/regions. Other significant factors found to be significant include population, real gross domestic product (GDP), and investment share of PPP converted GDP per capita. We also found that flood is the most devastating disaster to affect country/region-level economic growth. This growth-econometrics model will help in the policy and decision making of governments related to the investment needs for pre- and post-disaster risk mitigation and response planning strategies, to better protect nations and minimize disaster-induced economic impacts.

Modeling Impact of Natural Hazard-Induced Disasters on Income Distribution in the United States

Economic damage due to hurricane activities has been shown to impact income inequality in the coastal states of the United States. We consider 17 other natural hazards, in addition to hurricanes, that affected the entire United States for the period 1970–2013. Two fixed effects models were developed to quantify the relationship between income inequality and economic and demographic variables, including crop and property losses from natural hazard-induced disasters. These models include state-by-year and region-by-year fixed effects models. Our findings show that the damages from all natural hazards impact income distribution across the United States, not only in hurricane-affected areas, but also in non-hurricane states. The results of our study have important implications for the insurance industry and government policymakers.

Quantifying Disaster Physical Damage Using Remote Sensing Data\u2014A Technical Work Flow and Case Study of the 2014 Ludian Earthquake in China

Disaster damage assessment is an important basis for the objective assessment of the social impacts of disasters and for the planning of recovery and reconstruction. It is also an important research field with regard to disaster mitigation and risk management. Quantitative assessment of physical damage refers to the determination of the physical damage state of the exposed elements in a disaster area, reflecting the aggregate quantities of damages. It plays a key role in the comprehensive damage assessment of major natural hazard-induced disasters. The National Disaster Reduction Center of China has established a technical work flow for the quantitative assessment of disaster physical damage using remote sensing data. This article presents a quantitative assessment index system and method that can be integrated with high-resolution remote sensing data, basic geographical data, and field survey data. Following the 2014 Ludian Earthquake in Yunnan Province, China, this work flow was used to assess the damage to buildings, roads, and agricultural and forest resources, and the assessment results were incorporated into the Disaster Damage Comprehensive Assessment Report of the 2014 Ludian Earthquake for the State Council of China. This article also outlines some possible improvements that can be addressed in future work.

Economic Lessons of the Kobe Earthquake

The earthquake that struck the Japanese port city of Kobe on January 17, 1995, was the most severe quake ever to strike a modern urban area. It has become the most studied, analyzed, and discussed natural disaster in history. What I propose to add to this dialogue is an economist's overview of what he saw in Kobe 19 months after the event and what he learned during the ensuing 6 months.